In this episode, being part two in a recent series with Jeremy Couchman, a Senior Economist at Kiwibank - we discuss the state of the NZ property market in light of a potential capital gains tax. We also divert to discuss an interesting concept called UBI.
The property market, anecdotally at this stage at least, appears to have taken a hit - data to confirm this will follow I suspect. Reasons?
- We're already well into year one of a potential 4-5 year modest period of growth
- New government policy starting to bite
- Tougher lending guidelines that restrict credit availability
- Changes to 'ring-fencing rules'
- Effects from increasing the 'bright line' test from 2 to 5 years
- Correlation effects of the Australian property market
- most importantly, the discussions around a proposed capital gains tax
There's still fundamentally a supply side issue and an extremely low-interest rate environment which is providing a floor of support - in other words, don't panic!
Jeremy discusses the impact and the logic behind the proposed capital gains tax, from the perspective of government policy and macro-economic theory.
Then, get ready for UBI! Although it's unlikely to take hold in NZ, anything is possible and with the current government, and it would be kind of interesting to explore this further. A universal basic income would be interesting if rolled out in NZ - imagine everyone in getting a base level of income, no matter who you are. On the right, it may reduce resentment and on the left, it may reduce the anxiety around having to find work. It's a contentious one but one that's been trialled overseas. In the podcast, we mention Alaska, where a form of UBI is in effect and Manitoba (Canada), where a form of UBI was trialled in the '70s. Could this be a solution to address the technological displacement of the current workforce? Check out the following:
http://freakonomics.com/podcast/mincome/
http://fortune.com/2018/08/03/universal-basic-income-ontario-canada/
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