The predictable rhythm of strategic planning has broken down. Annual cycles, fixed assumptions and long-term forecasts no longer hold in an environment where disruption arrives faster than organisations can respond. In this episode recorded at JLL's Canberra Signature Event, investment, consulting and government leasing specialists make the case that disruption isn't an occasional event to plan around anymore—it's the operating environment itself.

The conversation moves beyond abstract strategy talk to explore what's actually changing on the ground. Investors are scrutinising every dollar of return as interest rates stay higher for longer and construction costs climb 40% in five years. Occupiers are rethinking space needs as AI reshapes workforce planning in unpredictable ways. Landlords are shortening lease terms while tenants demand more flexibility. And long-held assumptions—like consolidating into one large footprint or using fixed desk-sharing ratios—are being actively retested.

From "permacrisis" to compressed planning cycles, the panel unpacks why organisations can no longer wait for conditions to settle before making decisions. They discuss scenario planning over prediction, how interest rate shifts are recalibrating investment models, why amenity is now baseline rather than differentiator, and how to lead when the assumptions underpinning your last strategy no longer apply.

The common thread: the organisations getting ahead aren't the ones waiting for stability to return. They're the ones building the capability to adapt continuously—because inaction is itself a strategic choice, and competitors are moving whether you are or not.

Featured speakers:

• Zoe Ferrari, Senior Director, Office Leasing & Government Leasing Lead, JLL (moderator)
• Bryan Froud, Director, JLL Consulting
• Ainsley Reddy, Senior Director, Office Leasing & Government Leasing Lead, JLL
• Belinda Cheung, Fund Manager, Centuria Office Fund

Key topics:

• Why strategic planning can no longer be an annual exercise
• How interest rates staying higher for longer are reshaping investment decisions
• What investors and occupiers actually want now—and why it's changed
• Why assumptions like portfolio consolidation and fixed desk ratios no longer hold
• Scenario planning as a tool for preparing for multiple futures
• How AI is reshaping workforce and space planning in unpredictable ways
• Why amenity and flexibility are now baseline expectations, not differentiators
• What leaders need to stop doing to build organisational adaptability
• Recorded live at JLL's Canberra Signature Event, 2026

JLL Canberra Signature Event - Perspectives podcast

Our panel today is titled "Disruption as the Default: Rethinking How We Invest." We've seen a lot of people waiting for things to settle down, hoping for a return to "normal" or a "survive to 25." At JLL, we're starting to see that disruption is becoming more regular—it's every day. Moderating today is Zoe, our Senior Director of Office Leasing and Government Leasing Lead. She'll be joined by Bryan Froud, Director at JLL Consulting; Belinda Cheung, Fund Manager of the Centuria Office Fund; and Ainsley Reddy, who leads Australian government account leasing activities.

Thank you, Tim. To kick things off, Bryan, when you hear "disruption as the default," what does that mean from your perspective?

For those of us in government, uncertainty is baked into our calendars at least once every three years, but it's more frequent than that with Machinery of Government (MoG) changes and policy shifts. What has changed is the velocity and speed of that change. We have the muscle memory for it, but strategic planning can no longer be a once-a-year block; it needs to happen much faster.

Belinda, I'm sure you agree.

I do. It’s the new normal. My focus is on adapting and stress-testing current models to ensure investors' money is put to best use for stable distributions. It hasn't been easy with pressures like cash rates and inflation. Being a professional landlord is harder now, especially with rising market vacancies coinciding with one of the largest development cycles in 20 years. But where there are ashes, there may be a phoenix rising.

Bryan, have organizations truly accepted this uncertainty, or are they still waiting for a return to "normal"?

Domestically, there has been a "wait and see" approach due to conflicts and supply chain pressures. However, global occupiers are showing more interest in scenario planning. It’s not about predicting the future, but imagining multiple futures so you are prepared if one lands. We worked with a global occupier on four scenarios regarding the Iran conflict, mapping triggers like GDP, inflation, and oil dependency. Developers can't work on one statistic anymore; they need to work on a range.

Previously, we’d set a strategy and move forward. Now, we are having formal and informal discussions halfway through because things aren't playing out as expected. We are planning much more frequently.

With COVID, we were good at detailed, bottom-up pivoting. But doing that for every disruption isn't sustainable. We still analyze, but we have to revisit strategies constantly. You must be flexible in forecasting valuations, rents, and incentives based on the most current information, or your decision is pointless.

In landlord leasing, we used to talk about rents and incentives at the start. Now, we recommend regrouping every couple of months to respond to how the market is changing.

Should organizations fear, embrace, or prepare for disruption?

Always be prepared. You need to go in with your eyes open to maintain a competitive advantage and see both threats and opportunities.

I'll say fear it—as a first step toward preparing. Fear of change is the silent majority. Whether it's a personal impact or an industry shift, self-awareness about what you fear helps you prepare.

I say acceptance. If you can't control it, accept it and move on through planning and preparation.

I’d add that inaction is a decision in itself. If you don't adapt while everyone else is rushing ahead, you will be left behind.

Belinda, how has permanent disruption changed how investors assess risk?

Investors are worried about every dollar. Inflation is driving rents up, but leasing metrics like high incentives are holding back returns. Overseas investors compare Australia to the US or Asia; they see high yields here but worry about our slower recovery rate. They are focusing more on cash yields and stable income profiles.

From the occupier side, we see landlords wanting to lock us in for shorter terms with no options. That’s a big shift.

Predicting workforce demand is also challenging. Occupiers want more visibility and options. You have to predict year-on-year growth over ten years while accounting for AI and offshoring. AI was seen as a productivity savior, but some companies are getting stung by massive bills for token usage, which can reduce the benefits of offshoring.

In the Commonwealth portfolio, there is a focus on utilizing existing space better.

Most landlords are becoming more accommodating to changes in space requirements. Tenants prefer flexibility, which led us to put flex office options and shared facilities like meeting rooms and high-end end-of-trip facilities into buildings. These are now standard features in Canberra.

Disruption is also hitting interior design. We're seeing more "library spaces"—open-plan areas with behavioral norms for focus work. They are more efficient because you aren't building walls.

What investment assumption from five years ago no longer applies?

The idea that consolidation is always better. In depressed markets, it's still hard to find sizable, contiguous space. I now question clients on why they feel they need to be in one large footprint.

The idea of fixed sharing ratios for activity-based working. It can't be one-size-fits-all anymore, especially with changes like the Victorian government enshrining working from home into law. You have to design for different life stages.

Interest rates. We long thought the neutral rate was 2–3%. Last year, an economist predicted a return to 2.75%, but that’s not happening. The neutral rate will be higher for longer. We need to find efficiencies in real estate because financing and construction costs (which rose 40% in five years) aren't going down. Replacing or even refurbishing property is exorbitant now—north of $1,300 per square meter for a refresh and over $2,500 for a new fit-out in Melbourne.

Quick fire: What’s one thing leaders need to stop doing?

Stop inaction. Lead by example, innovate, and share knowledge with peers. A rising tide lifts all boats.

Stop looking backwards; start looking forwards. The status quo is good for context, but you need to spend more time on what's next.

Stop trying to predict the future alone. Have the humility to seek advice from the right people and know when it’s time to revisit a plan.

What’s one action for tomorrow morning?

Be curious and look behind the headlines to find what is truly driving impact.

Look for different ways to solve problems. Even small changes, like taking a different route to work, change your brain chemistry. And think about how AI is disrupting roles—my wife, a graphic designer, had to retrain because freelance work vanished due to AI.

If something isn't going as expected, realize that old drivers may not apply. Collaborate with experts to workshop non-straightforward problems.

Thank you to the panel for a grounded and honest conversation. Disruption is no longer an event; it's the environment. The organizations that succeed will be the ones that build the capability to adapt rather than looking for certainty.