3–0 Doesn't Tell the Half of It — Leipzig Maul Gladbach | Nkunku's Back, Bremen Next - RBL Talk

Justin Crozer: 00:00:20

3-0.

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Baku, Nusa, Rietz, a clean sheet, a packed

Red Bull Arena, and Martin Dementulis'

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first league game in charge ends with

a win that looks on paper comfortable.

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But here's the thing, Terrace.

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3-0 doesn't tell you the half of it.

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Because the expected goals

on the night were 3.95

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to 0.97.

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Six big chances to two.

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25 shots to 15.

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And the only reason this wasn't five

or six or seven was a goalkeeper in the

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Gladbach net having the game of his life.

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This wasn't a 3-0.

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This was a mauling that

happened to finish 3-0.

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Welcome back to RBL Talk, Tactics,

Terrace, Truth, the independent

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community-powered home of RB Leipzig,

coming to you from Adelaide, wherever you

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are in the world, and however deep into

the early hours it is when this one drops.

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I'm Justin Crozer, and

this is episode 118.

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Big one today.

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We're breaking down the Bundesliga

Matchday 1 opener, Leipzig three,

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Borussia Mönchengladbach zero, and I

mean properly breaking it down, because

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the numbers under this result tell

a story the skyline only hints at.

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We've got the return of a familiar

face in the red and white shirt.

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We've got a player watch result

to settle from the last episode.

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And later on, we'll be

turning it over to you.

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The digital terrace has been

talking, and we've got a cracking

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submission, plus a shout-out to get to.

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Then we look ahead, Matchday 2, and

a trip that's got some history to it.

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No sponsors, no club line to tow, no

gatekeepers, just the football, the

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numbers, and pure Leipzig passion.

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If that's your thing,

you're in the right place.

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Let's do it.

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Right, match day one, Saturday

afternoon in Leipzig,: 15:30

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half 3 CEST, which for us back home was

: 2300

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sensible late-night watch for once.

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Sven Jablonski, the referee,

Demichelis lines up in a 4-3-3,

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Gladbach come with a 4-2-3-1, and

a lone striker in Tim Kleindienst.

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And from the whi- first whistle,

Leipzig go for the throat.

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Now I wanna start with the stat

that frames the entire game, because

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it's the one that surprised me.

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Leipzig had less of the ball,

47% possession, fewer passes,

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4-2-7 to Gladbach's 4-7-4.

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They even lost the tackle count, 13 to 19.

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So this was not death by possession.

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This wasn't Leipzig strangling

the game with the ball.

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This was sharp, direct, vertical football,

win it, move it forward, hurt you.

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45 final third entries, 19 shots

from inside the box, and if you

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looked at the attack map, the play

is pouring straight through the

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middle and that left central channel.

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Not hopeful crosses from wide, but Leipzig

going through Gladbach again and again.

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And when you look at where the

shots came from, picture the penalty

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area, and picture a cluster of

shots packed right in front of goal.

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Six-yard line, penalty spot, dead

central, that's the money zone.

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That's why the expected goals hit 3.95.

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Leipzig weren't just shooting

a lot, they were shooting

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from the spots you score from.

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Expected goals on target, 3.41.

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That's a hatful of guilt-edged looks.

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Let's talk about the men who took them.

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The opener twenty-five minutes in,

Rydel Baku, right back, gets on

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the end of it, left foot tucks it

away, and Baku's whole game is the

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Demi Çelik's fullback blueprint.

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An eight point two rating, seven

defensive contributions, and get

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this, seven ground duels contested.

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Seven ground duels won, a hundred

percent, plus the goal before

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he made way just after the hour.

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That's a wing back doing both

jobs and doing them flawlessly.

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Second goal just after the break,

forty-nine minutes, Antonio Nusa,

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eight point three on the r- on the

night and relentless down that left.

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Forty-six touches, twenty-one carries,

eight of them progressive, a big

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chance created on top of his goal.

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Direct, fearless, took that moment.

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And the third sixty m- six minutes, Rocco

Reitz, right foot, assisted and the pick

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of the midfield performances, an eight

flat rating, three key passes, Leipzig's

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chief creator in the middle before he

came off to a well-earned breather.

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But if I'm handing out the man of

the match armband, and Sofascore

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did, it goes to someone who didn't

score and didn't get an assist.

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Brajan Gruda, eight point

eight, top score on the pitch.

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And I know what you're thinking.

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No goal, no assist.

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How?

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Because the underlying numbers are absurd.

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Zero point seven nine expected

assists, the single biggest creative

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number of any player in this game.

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Thirteen ground duels, eight dribbles,

two hundred and forty-three meters

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carried, two key passes, seven recoveries.

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His heat map is a wall of red

down the right and into the box.

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Gruda was the engine.

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He manufactured the big chances even when

his teammates didn't always bury them.

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That's a dominant performance

the scoreline never records,

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and exactly the kind of thing

we're here to shine a light on.

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Quick word on the other end of

the honesty scale, because we

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don't do rose-tinted glasses here.

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Tidy Ngome's picked up two assists,

two, and finished on a six point five.

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And when a two-assist man

rates that low, the numbers are

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trying to tell you something.

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Six unsuccessful touches.

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Possession lost nine times.

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His total progression was minus

16 meters, meaning on balance,

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he carried Leipzig backwards.

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He got hooked on the hour for the

returning man, so yes, end product

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masked a generally scratchy afternoon.

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The assists are real.

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The performance around it wasn't.

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And that returning man, Christopher

Nkunku, on for Gomes just after the hour.

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Straight back into it

in the red and white.

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An assist, a big chance created.

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Seven from seven passing across his cameo.

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We'll come back to Chris in a minute

because the terrace has some thoughts

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Now the defense, because this was a

clean sheet and it serves its due.

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Castillo Lecaba, 8.1,

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was a monster.

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16 defenses, contributions, 11

clearances, 3 interceptions, and

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then he'd win it and drive out.

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196 meters carried and 89% passing.

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Willie Orban won 6 of his 8 aerials

and, believe it or not, rattled the

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woodwork from a corner that came

that close to center half's dream.

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David Realm was the creative

fullback, a team high, .69

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expected assists off the

left with 9 crosses swung in.

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And in behind them,

Martin Vandervoort, 8.1,

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calm as you like, 100%

passing in his own half.

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And here's a lovely wrinkle.

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Vandervoort only made 4 saves.

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The Gladbach keeper made 8.

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But Martin's goal prevented

number, plus 0.68,

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was actually higher than

his opponent's numbers.

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Meaning on the fewer chances

he faced, he saved more than

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the average keeper would have.

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The standout, a full stretch stop from a

Frank Honorat corner in the 92nd minute to

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keep the clean sheet right to the death.

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One keeper made a mountain of saves.

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The other made the ones that mattered.

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Both earned their clean sheet story.

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One just did it in a black shirt.

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Because I have to say it, Moritz Nicholas

in the Gladbach goal was sensational.

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8.7,

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8 saves, 5 from the inside the box,

2 of them flagged as big saves.

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That man is the sole reason this

finished 3-0 and not a cricket score.

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Credit where it's due, he was

outstanding and he was busy because

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his backline had no answers.

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Not one Gladbach defender broke 6.3.

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The fullback with the toughest job

up against that Gruda Baku right

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side limped off injured on 76.

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That's what conceding 6 big chances

looks like at the individual level.

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Last time out, I set you a player

watch duel for this game, Nicholas

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Seiwald versus Hugo Böhlen.

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The Leipzig anchor against

the Gladbach forward.

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So who won it?

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And I love this because

the answer is, it's a tie.

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Generally, they both finished on six point

nine, the exact same rating, but they

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earned it in completely opposite ways.

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Seiwald's six point nine

was the invisible one.

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No shots, no key passes.

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That's not his job.

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His job was to sit in front

of the back four and hoover up

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seven defensive contributions,

three tackles, two interceptions,

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two clearances, six recoveries.

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He was the metronome that led the ball

players around him go and hurt Gladbach.

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You barely noticed him, and that's

the highest compliment you can

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play as a holding midfielder.

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Böhlen's six point nine

was the exact opposite.

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He was the one man in a Gladbach shirt

who actually looked like scoring.

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Four shots, zero point

three expected goals.

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He hit the woodwork, he forced a

save, he missed a big chance, and he

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won six of his seven ground duels.

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On a day his side got battered,

Böhlen was their brightest spark.

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Same number.

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Two totally different jobs.

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One quietly ran the engine room, the

other was the only genuine threat on

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his team, and they both did exactly

what their side needed from them.

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So I'm calling the duel a draw,

and I've got a feeling some

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of you called it the same way.

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Hold that thought.

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So match day one, a statement.

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Three-nil on the board, a mauling

underneath it, a clean sheet, and

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a returning hero back in the fold.

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Demichélis could not have asked

for a cleaner opening night.

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And speaking of calling it the same

way I did, that's where you come in,

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because the Digital Terrace has been

buzzing since the final whistle, and

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one of you in particular sent in a

submission I wanna get stuck into.

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Let's open the mailbag

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This is my favorite part of the

show every single time, because this

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is where the Terrace gets the mic.

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First up, over in the Digital

Terrace Discord, we've got a

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belter of a submission from Ava.

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: 00:11:18

Ava went through the big questions

from the match one by one, so I'm

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going to do the same, 'cause there's

some generally sharp reading in here.

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Let's go through it

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first question I threw out, Nkunku back

in red and white with an assist inside

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20 seconds of the action during return.

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Ava's verdict, great assist, but

after that he didn't do much.

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: 00:11:42

Now I'm going to gently

stick up for Chris here.

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And look, I get the eye

test read completely.

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It felt like the assist and then quiet.

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But the numbers push back a little.

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In 26 minutes off the bench,

Nkunku didn't just get the assist.

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He also created a big chance, posted 0.17

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expected assists, and completed

every single pass he attempted.

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Seven from seven.

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For a man just back in the shirt,

coming into a game that was already

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won, that's a genuine tidy cameo.

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So I'll meet you halfway over.

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It wasn't a highlight

reel after the assist, no.

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But he did do a bit more than

the eye gives him credit for.

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And honestly, I'll take quite efficient

from a returning Nkunku all season long.

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Next, Devin Schulze's league bow.

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How good was it?

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Ava reckons much better than

what we saw in preseason,

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especially in the second half.

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And I'm nodding along here

because that's spot on.

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The preseason worry was

the attacking transition.

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Could this side turn

dominance into damage?

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Two of the three goals

came after the break.

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The second-half momentum was

relentless, and the expected goals

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gap only widened as the game wore on.

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: 00:12:53

Preseason questions, first

competitive game answers.

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Good spot.

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Then the big one, player watch.

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Seiwald versus Bolin.

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Who won the duel?

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Ava's answer, Bolin played a really

strong game, so it should be a tie

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Now rewind just a few minutes ago

when I gave you that exact verdict.

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Both men on 6.9,

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opposite jobs, a genuine draw.

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Ava got there independently.

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: 00:13:22

Same conclusion, same reasoning.

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Bolin was that good in a beaten

side that you can't split them.

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This is what I love about

this community, Terrace.

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We're not just watching the scoreline,

we're reading the game the same

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way the deep numbers read it.

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: 00:13:38

Ava, you and Sofa Score are in

lockstep, and you're both right.

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Beautiful call.

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Your standout in the

three-nil, Ava goes for two.

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Lacaba, brilliant at carrying the ball

forward from the back, and Raum, who he

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reckons has leveled up since last season.

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Could not agree more on both.

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Lacaba's carrying was a

feature of this whole game.

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Nearly two hundred meters of ball

progression from a center half, and Raum

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off the left was creating like a winger.

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That team high expected assists number

backs up the level up read to the letter.

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But then Ava gets spicy,

and I'm here for it.

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Quote, "Two assists from Gomes, but

I don't trust him at all," and, "Lost

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all faith in Harder and Benzuzi.

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: 00:14:24

On Benzuzi, in ten minutes with

Van de Meeren, I feel like we

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have a lot more ball movement,

and Benzuzi is allergic to goals."

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Okay, let me take this fairly, because

there's truth and a caveat here.

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: 00:14:39

On Gomes, you're completely right,

and the numbers are on your side.

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We covered it.

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Two assists, but a 6.5,

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minus 16 metres of progression,

sloppy in possession.

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The end product flattered

a rough performance.

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: 00:14:52

Trust your eyes there.

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: 00:14:55

On Benzuzi, though, I'm going to have

to offer a slightly different lens,

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because allergic to goals is a great

line, but the data tells a kinder story.

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: 00:15:06

Benzuzi actually had 1.26

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expected goals this match.

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: 00:15:11

That's more than any other Leipzig player.

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: 00:15:14

He got into brilliant

positions again and again.

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: 00:15:16

He missed two big chances, yes,

but allergic to goals would be

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a man that never gets near them.

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Benzuzi got near them constantly.

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He just couldn't finish on the day.

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That's a finishing problem, not a

movement problem, and finishing is

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the most fixable thing in football.

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: 00:15:33

So I'm not writing him off just yet.

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Ask me again in five games.

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But I hear you.

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On the day, it was frustrating.

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: 00:15:42

And finally, what did the

Sofascore numbers back up?

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And Ava absolutely nails the brief here.

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He says, the whole defence rated over 7.7

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and deserved it.

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Seibold and Benzuzi on 6.9

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feels weird.

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And Gomes on a 6.5

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with two assists proves he played

horribly outside those two moments.

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And get this, Ava clocked that Gomes'

second assist wasn't even a key

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pass because Nusa did all the work.

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: 00:16:10

That, that is a terrace member

reading the numbers like an analyst.

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: 00:16:16

He's right about the defense.

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They earned every decimal.

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And he's right that a two assist 6.5

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is the stat screaming, look closer.

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That's not me feeding

you the tactics anymore.

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: 00:16:28

That's you handing them back

to me sharper than I gave them.

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Ava, outstanding submission.

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Generally, that's the standard

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And staying with this community,

a quick one that made me smile.

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: 00:16:40

Over on Spotify, A-N-D-R-I-U-X-A.C-A-P-A-S

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: 00:16:47

dropped a comment after last

episode, and I wanted to read it out.

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: 00:16:51

They said, "Thanks for the shout-out and

for talking about my comment last episode.

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Loving the interaction on this podcast.

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Can't wait to see Nkunku

back in the RB jersey

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Well, first of all, you got your wish

because Nkunku is back in the jersey,

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and he marked it with an assist.

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Perfect timing.

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But more than that, this is

the whole point of RBL Talk.

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This isn't me broadcasting at you.

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: 00:17:19

There's no corporate wall, no gatekeeper,

no comment that disappears into the void.

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: 00:17:23

You talk, I listen.

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: 00:17:25

We go back and forth, and

the show gets better for it.

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That's what independent

community-powered actually means.

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: 00:17:31

So thank you, A-N-D-R-I-U-X-A.

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: 00:17:35

The interaction goes both ways, and

it's the best part of doing this,

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and that, Terrace, is exactly why

I'll keep asking for your takes

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because you keep raising the bar

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We'll get into matchday two in just

a second, but first, a quick word

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Quick one and then straight

back to the football.

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RBL Talk has no sponsors, no

corporate backing, no club money.

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: 00:18:01

That's a choice because it means

nobody gets to tell me what I can

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: 00:18:05

and can't say about this team.

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: 00:18:07

No agendas, no gatekeepers,

just pure Leipzig passion.

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: 00:18:11

But independent only works if the

people who value it keep the lights on.

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: 00:18:16

So this show adds something to your week.

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: 00:18:18

If the analyst makes you see the

football a little differently,

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: 00:18:21

or the terrace feels like home.

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: 00:18:24

There are a few free

ways to keep it going.

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: 00:18:26

Hit follow wherever you're listening,

leave a rating or a review.

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: 00:18:30

It generally moves the needle on getting

new Leipzig fans through the door.

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: 00:18:34

Share an episode with

one mate who'd get it.

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: 00:18:36

And if you wanna go further, the

support links are in the show notes.

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: 00:18:40

Every bit goes straight back into keeping

this show free, independent, and yours.

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: 00:18:46

And don't forget the Digital Terrace feed.

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: 00:18:48

That's where we go live for the matches.

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: 00:18:51

Real-time commentary, tactical reactions,

sofa score breakdowns as it happens.

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: 00:18:56

If you like the deep dive, the feed is

where we do it together in real time.

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: 00:19:01

Links as always in the show notes.

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: 00:19:03

That's it.

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: 00:19:04

No hard sell.

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: 00:19:05

Back to the football

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: 00:19:09

Right.

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: 00:19:10

Match day two, a trip north, a ground with

a bit of history for this football club,

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: 00:19:14

and a chance to make it two wins from two.

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: 00:19:17

Let's talk about it

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Match day two, Saturday the 5th of

September,: 15:30

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: 00:19:24

CEST, which back home is 23:11 PM ACST.

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: 00:19:29

Another late one for the Adelaide crew.

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: 00:19:31

We're off to the Weserstadion to face

Werder Bremen, and I wanna start with

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a number that made me smile because it

sets the tone for this whole preview.

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: 00:19:41

In the all-time Bundesliga

head-to-head, Werder Bremen

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: 00:19:44

have never beaten RB Leipzig.

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: 00:19:46

Never.

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: 00:19:47

The record reads six Leipzig wins,

four draws, and zero, zero Bremen

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: 00:19:53

victories, and it's not just history.

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: 00:19:56

Leipzig are unbeaten in their

last four league trips to the

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: 00:19:59

Weserstadion, specifically two

wins, two draws, including a 2-1

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: 00:20:04

on the last visit back in April.

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: 00:20:07

This is, by every measure,

a happy hunting ground.

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: 00:20:12

Now, I always tell you, past results

don't play the next match, so let's look

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: 00:20:17

at what's actually in front of us because

the form picture only deepens the story.

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: 00:20:24

Bremen opened their season away at

Freiburg, and it didn't go well.

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: 00:20:28

They lost four-one, and the

underlying numbers are even

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: 00:20:31

uglier than the scoreline.

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: 00:20:32

Bremen mustered zero point four

eight expected goals across

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: 00:20:36

the entire ninety minutes.

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: 00:20:38

Zero point four eight, nine shots,

only three on target, and they were

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: 00:20:43

out-tackled twenty-eight to nine.

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: 00:20:46

And that stat is the tell.

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: 00:20:48

When your team is racking up twenty-eight

tackles, you are not the team on the ball.

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: 00:20:53

You are chasing, defending

deep, second to everything.

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: 00:20:56

Freiburg had them pinned.

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: 00:20:58

So here's the setup, and it's a stark one.

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: 00:21:01

Leipzig arrive off a matchday

one where they generated three

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: 00:21:05

point nine five expected goals.

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: 00:21:07

Bremen arrive off a matchday

one where they conceded four

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: 00:21:10

and created next to nothing.

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: 00:21:12

On paper, that's a mismatch.

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: 00:21:14

The caveat, and there's always a caveat,

is that a wounded team at home in front

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: 00:21:19

of their own crowd is a dangerous animal.

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: 00:21:22

Bremen will scrap.

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: 00:21:23

They will make it physical.

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: 00:21:25

But if Leipzig bring what they

brought against Gladbach, this has

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: 00:21:28

the makings of another statement.

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: 00:21:32

So here's your player watch duel for

this one, and it carries a thread

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: 00:21:36

we've been pulling all episode.

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: 00:21:38

On one side, Bremen's captain

and center half, Marco Friedl.

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: 00:21:42

On the other, our returning

man, Christopher Nkunku.

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: 00:21:45

Let me set the stage on Friedl,

because I don't want anyone

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: 00:21:48

thinking this is a weak link pick.

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: 00:21:50

It's the opposite.

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: 00:21:52

Against Freiburg, Friedl was

Bremen's busiest defender and

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: 00:21:55

generally excellent on the ball.

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: 00:21:57

97% passing, 78 from 70,

and 100% in his own half.

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: 00:22:03

219 meters carried.

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: 00:22:07

This is a composed,

press-resistant, ball-playing

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: 00:22:09

captain who barely gives it away.

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: 00:22:12

But here's the how Leipzig

will hurt him part.

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: 00:22:16

Look at what Friedl actually

had to do against Freiburg.

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: 00:22:20

11 defensive contributions,

six clearances, six recoveries,

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: 00:22:25

two interceptions, two blocks.

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: 00:22:27

His heat map is a red smear

right across his own box.

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: 00:22:31

That's not a defender controlling a game.

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: 00:22:33

That's a defender under siege,

making save after save because

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: 00:22:38

his team couldn't stem the tide.

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: 00:22:40

And Leipzig's entire match day one

identity was exactly the thing that

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: 00:22:44

overwhelms a center half like that.

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: 00:22:46

Relentless, vertical, wave after

wave, attacking through the middle.

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: 00:22:51

That's where Nkunku comes in.

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: 00:22:53

Even as an impact sub, and he may well

start this one, Chris is precisely the

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: 00:22:58

between the lines threat that drags

a center back into no-win decisions.

400

: 00:23:03

Does Friedl step out to meet him and

leave space in behind, or drop off and

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: 00:23:07

let Nkunku turn and run at the back line?

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: 00:23:10

In his 26 minutes against Gladbach, Nkunku

already showed the end products there.

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: 00:23:15

An assist, a big chance created,

seven from seven passing.

404

: 00:23:19

So how does Bremen's Friedl

try to win this duel?

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: 00:23:23

He needs to defend on the front foot.

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: 00:23:26

Step early, screen the pocket,

use that lovely passing to relieve

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: 00:23:29

the pressure before it builds.

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: 00:23:31

And how does Leipzig break him?

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: 00:23:34

Occupy him with runners

so he can't step out.

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: 00:23:37

Get Nkunku receiving between

the lines and turning into the

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: 00:23:40

space Friedl has to vacate.

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: 00:23:43

If Leipzig make Friedl choose,

Friedl loses, because he'll be

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: 00:23:46

making those choices all afternoon.

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: 00:23:49

That's your duel.

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: 00:23:50

Friedl's composure and reading of the

game against Nkunku's spark and movement.

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: 00:23:55

Keep your eyes on it.

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: 00:23:56

I'll have the result next time.

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: 00:24:00

So what do the numbers say is coming?

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: 00:24:02

Everything points one way.

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: 00:24:03

Leipzig's expected goals output

on match day one was elite.

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: 00:24:07

Bremen's was among the

worst in the league.

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: 00:24:10

Leipzig has never lost this fixture

and they travel to the Weserstadion

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: 00:24:14

better than almost anywhere.

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: 00:24:17

Weigh it all up and I'm calling it.

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: 00:24:19

Leipzig by two.

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: 00:24:20

I'll say 2-0, maybe 3-1 if Bremen

nick a consolation off a set piece.

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: 00:24:25

But a comfortable Leipzig win on the

road backed by every number we've got.

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: 00:24:29

The only thing that

stops it is complacency.

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: 00:24:32

And after a 3-0 opening

statement, I don't think this

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: 00:24:35

group is in the mood to ease off.

431

: 00:24:39

And that's the lot.

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: 00:24:40

Match day one dissected, your

voices heard, and match day

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: 00:24:44

two locked in our sights.

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: 00:24:45

Before I let you go, let me leave

you with a couple of things to chew

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: 00:24:49

on and a question for the terrace

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: 00:24:56

So let's bring it home.

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: 00:24:57

A few things to take away from this one.

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: 00:24:59

First, don't let a tidy

three-nil fool you.

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: 00:25:02

This was a performance of real dominance.

440

: 00:25:05

Three point nine five expected goals, six

big chances, a mauling that a world-class

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: 00:25:09

goalkeeping display kept respectable.

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: 00:25:11

Domenico Lisi's Leipzig didn't just win.

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: 00:25:14

They controlled the how of it.

444

: 00:25:17

Second, the depth is real.

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: 00:25:20

A returning Nkunku off the bench with

an assist and a big chance created.

446

: 00:25:24

Gruder running a game without

troubling the score sheet.

447

: 00:25:27

Baku scoring and winning every

ground duel he contested.

448

: 00:25:30

This looks like a squad with layers.

449

: 00:25:34

And third, the road ahead sets up nicely.

450

: 00:25:37

A trip to the ground where Bremen have

never beaten us, against a side that

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: 00:25:42

got picked apart on the opening weekend.

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: 00:25:45

The pieces are in place for another

statement if the levels hold.

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: 00:25:51

Which brings to my question for

you, the Digital Terrace, and I

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: 00:25:54

wanna hear from you on this one.

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: 00:25:58

Cast your mind back a few weeks, a

shaky preseason, mixed form, plenty

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: 00:26:03

of us, me included, had worries about

where this squad was at, and the

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: 00:26:07

matchday one lands, and it's that.

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: 00:26:10

A dominant, controlled,

three-nil dismantling.

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: 00:26:13

So here's what I'm asking.

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: 00:26:16

After seeing that, are you comfortable

with how this squad is looking?

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: 00:26:20

Or would you still change something?

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: 00:26:22

Is there a weak area

you'd want strengthened?

463

: 00:26:25

A position you'd bring a player in for?

464

: 00:26:28

Or are you happy to run it

back with what we've got?

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: 00:26:31

Where, if anywhere, does

this group still need work?

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: 00:26:35

I want the honest takes and optimists

and the ones who are still holding back,

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: 00:26:42

because the one dominant win doesn't

erase a whole preseason of questions.

468

: 00:26:46

Or does it?

469

: 00:26:47

You tell me.

470

: 00:26:49

Here's how to get your voice on the show.

471

: 00:26:51

Drop me a message on SpeakPipe.

472

: 00:26:52

You've got up to five minutes, and I love

playing your actual voices on the pod.

473

: 00:26:56

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