Australia's latest housing policies are designed to make home ownership more accessible—but are they creating unintended consequences for investors, renters, and the broader property market?
In this episode, property data expert Kent Lardner returns to examine what the numbers are already revealing about investor behaviour following the Federal Budget, and why the government's expectations may not match reality.
Drawing on decades of experience analysing suburb-level property data, Kent explains why many investors are unlikely to rush into newly built properties despite generous tax incentives. Instead, many may simply sit on the sidelines, waiting for political uncertainty to settle, while established investment properties gradually disappear from the rental pool. The conversation explores why cash flow alone rarely drives successful investing, how inventory levels tell a very different story from headline listings data, and why inner-ring suburbs across Sydney and Melbourne may prove far more resilient than many expect.
The discussion also dives into the changing behaviour of buyer's agents, the rise of "spreadsheet investing," Brisbane's slowing momentum, and the lessons Australia may be able to learn from New Zealand's recent property market correction. Along the way, Veronica, Chris, and Kent challenge some of the biggest assumptions currently dominating the housing debate—including whether encouraging investors into new developments will actually improve affordability.
Whether you're an investor, buyer's agent, homeowner or simply trying to understand where Australia's property market is heading next, this episode offers a data-driven perspective that cuts through the political headlines and focuses on what the numbers are really saying.
Episode Highlights
02:20 Will the Budget Really Change Investor Behaviour?
05:37 The Supply Problem Nobody's Talking About
07:03 Are Buyer's Agents Chasing the Wrong Strategy?
12:13 What Happens When Investors Leave the Market?
25:42 Why Listings Don't Tell the Whole Market Story
30:54 The Truth About Investor Demand Right Now
33:02 Why Buyers Disappear in Falling Markets
35:32 Why New Builds Aren't Winning Investors Over
41:21 Which Cities Still Offer the Best Opportunities?
45:21 Where Investor Demand Could Create Future Risks
47:43 Final Thoughts & Your Property Questions Answered
About the Guest
Kent Lardner is one of Australia's most respected property data analysts, bringing more than three decades of experience interpreting housing market trends at both macro and suburb level. Best known for helping investors, researchers and property professionals understand what lies beneath headline statistics, Kent has built a career transforming complex data into practical market intelligence.
Throughout his career, Kent has contributed to some of Australia's most influential property data platforms, including CoreLogic, and has become widely recognised for his expertise in market cycles, housing supply, inventory analysis, rental trends and statistical modelling. His work has helped shape how property professionals assess investment opportunities beyond median prices and broad market averages.
Today, Kent continues his research through Founded, where he analyses housing market dynamics, investor behaviour and emerging trends across Australia. His evidence-based approach and ability to challenge conventional wisdom have made him a trusted voice for anyone seeking a deeper understanding of the property market.
Connect with Kent
Resources
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See you on the inside,
Veronica & Chris
