This week we are continuing in our conversation with Harry Dent where bond yields, real estate, and the rise of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin take center stage.

Unravel the complex relationship between inflation, economic growth, and investment strategies as the conversation sheds light on unexpected vulnerabilities in luxury real estate and potential dramatic shifts in the tech and crypto markets.

Tune in to gain invaluable insights on your investments approach in an ever-changing economic landscape.

Loral's Takeaways:

• Inflation, Bonds, And Real Estate Investments (00:43)
• Housing Market Downturn And Inflation (03:42)
• Cryptocurrency Market Trends And Potential Future Growth (08:37)
• Stock Market Trends And Potential Crashes (13:02)
• The Impact Of A Potential Economic Downturn On Small Businesses (16:57)
• Global Economic Bubble And Safe Investment Options (22:23)
• Investing During Economic Downturns (28:13)
• Economic Forecasting And Market Analysis (33:53)

Meet Harry Dent:

Harry S. Dent, Jr. is a best-selling author and one of the most outspoken financial editors in America.  Using proprietary research, Harry developed a unique method for studying economies around the world, and uses his analysis to provide insights on what to expect in the future.

Instead of focusing on endless graphs that assume people behave rationally, Harry instead looks at real people, making real economic decisions for themselves and their families.  He combines demographics with actual spending to inform his research.

Harry received his MBA from Harvard Business School, where he was a Baker Scholar and was elected to the Century Club for leadership excellence. He then joined Bain & Company as a Fortune 100 business consultant and now heads the independent research firm HS Dent Publishing.

Since then, he’s spoken to executives, financial advisors and investors around the world about demographics and the power of identifying different trends. Harry has appeared on “Good Morning America,” PBS, CNBC and CNN, Fox News and is a regular guest on Fox Business. He has also been featured in Barron’s, Investor’s Business Daily, Fortune, U.S. News and World Report, Business Week, The Wall Street Journal, and many other publications.

Harry has written numerous bestselling books over the last few decades, from The Great Boom Ahead in 1992 to Zero Hour in 2017. In 2019, Harry published his latest book Spending Waves, where he shares decades of extensive research covering over 200 businesses across 14 different industries to give readers insight into business and investing trends for the years ahead.

Connect with Harry:

https://harrydent.com/

Meet Loral Langemeier:

Loral Langemeier is a money expert, sought-after speaker, entrepreneurial thought leader, and best-selling author of five books.

Her goal: to change the conversations people have about money worldwide and empower people to become millionaires.

The CEO and Founder of Live Out Loud, Inc. – a multinational organization — Loral relentlessly and candidly shares her best advice without hesitation or apology. What sets her apart from other wealth experts is her innate ability to recognize and acknowledge the skills & talents of people, inspiring them to generate wealth.

She has created, nurtured, and perfected a 3-5 year strategy to make millions for the “Average Jill and Joe.” To date, she and her team have served thousands of individuals worldwide and created hundreds of millionaires through wealth-building education keynotes, workshops, products, events, programs, and coaching services.

Loral is truly dedicated to helping men and women, from all walks of life, to become millionaires AND be able to enjoy time with their families.

She is living proof that anyone can have the life of their dreams through hard work, persistence, and getting things done in the face of opposition. As a single mother of two children, she is redefining the possibility for women to have it all and raise their children in an entrepreneurial and financially literate environment.

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Welcome to Real Money Talks, real strategies from the money makers and the world changers that you can use to make millions. Keep those millions, multiply your wealth, and build your team. Here's your host, author of five New York Times best sellers, money expert on Dr. Phil, CNN, CNBC, the street TV, Fox News, and the view Loral Langemeier.

Now, bond yields have been going down as another major investment bond yields go down, it's good for bonds ever since the inflation peak, so when bonds care the most about inflation, and they see high growth is dangerous because it tends to push up inflation. But that's not always true. The my inflation indicator has very little to do with growth, except for the growth of young expensive people entering the workforce, okay, and that we're never going to see again. So inflation is never going to be a problem in our future our kids problems and in most countries, but it's been very good for bond. But now, it's gone the other way when they had to do this over stimulus and suddenly you get 9.1% inflation, well, that inflation is already darn near disappeared, it's gonna go away, especially in a recession and never come back. But it's cause huge changes in the bond market. CPI again, we see what drives his bond, the highest is the baby boomers kept entering the workforce back in 1980 14.8% inflation Okay, and then it's come down ever since. And now you see it's only been sideways and then up recently, and again, that is not a long term trend. So So bonds I'm gonna say are the things that high quality bonds are what do the best whenever when a bubble bursts because this isn't everything bubble, it has been real estate, it has been all sectors of stocks, just some more than other and some real estate more than other rich people real estate is going to bubble up more than every day. Okay. And, you know, vacation condos were bought by the top five 10% of the population are also going to bubble up and you know, rich people cause the biggest bubbles. But and here's here's another thing again, I'm just warning you this right now, after almost every presentation I give some person it's usually a lady will come up an older lady and say, Well, Harry, let me tell you about my Cliff house in Malibu is so great. It is so beautiful. It's got the best view. We got a bargain 20 years ago. Harry, you agreed me right, my real estate's not going to go down. And I'm like, sorry, Victoria. Your real estate's gonna go down the most you know why? Because it's so damn good. The best real estate driven by the richest people bubbles the most and crashes the most. So that's what you got to look at. Here's my rule for you. And this is very simple because real estate's way more complex than stocks stocks go up and down together, what was your house worth in 2012, condo, whatever, you got the case or whatever, that's where it's like most likely to fall. And when you see that downturn, you're probably going to be shocked. And if you're not, then you can feel good about keeping it. And again, contrary to perception, people say well loan says I know whom sales have really started to fall since late 2020, just after COVID. Okay, so so this is the beginning of a trend, house prices cannot stay up. And there's always a lag here too, when when home sales are falling this much and wait and we haven't even gotten into the damn recession yet. And that's almost guaranteed at this point. Now homes are coming to why homes are finally coming back on the market. Okay. And now that's stopping because people realize, well, I can give up my three sell my house and give up my 3% 4% mortgage and have to get a seven 8% one now. So So again, this is another thing as they see what happens when you pervert the economy by printing Zilean theum printing money like taking crack cocaine it is and I'm not using that as a stupid, that's exactly what it's like. It is taking too much too much stimulus makes you a stupid person and talk to anybody on crack, talk to anybody drunk, talk to anybody on heroin, and you'll realize that is a stupid person. Okay, while they are high. So this is what's happening everywhere in the economy. And looking at home prices just sit in it again, in a time when the economy would have naturally been down with the baby bus. Totally. We gone from 204,000 for the average house up to 497 2.5 times 144% increase. And you know what home prices go up reliably long term with the inflation rate and inflation is what now low and going to stay low. So not only your house is not going to come back. Well we don't have a bubble. They're not going to come back very fast. So if you don't sell now, you will you will never I'm saying you will never probably see especially high and we'll ever see these prices in your lifetimes and your kids may not even See, that's how serious this is. And if you don't believe me, wait, if you wait, it's going to be too late to do anything about it. So I know this is difficult. I know I'm not telling you what anybody else is. But I've been looking at this stuff. And I'm objective, I don't work for Merrill Lynch, or a bank or anybody and have to be politically correct here and not scare anybody. High supply. Now, here's where it gets tight. But now, you know, people start putting on the market, okay, when prices got high enough and all and that works against the prominent, the only good when home prices start to fall, it's going to start a cascade of effects. That takes us from low inflation to deflation, and that's going to take us into a downturn along construction costs all of that side of the story in the late stages. There's another thing happens when you overdo something over tax something, oh, you know, then costs are gonna go up if everybody's building to keep up with this bubble. And that's another thing, high costs. Sure, high cost, high prices care high prices. So every the what I'm trying to say here, and I could spend hours on this, everything's pointing towards deflation, not low are these high inflation staying, and everything's pointing towards a temporary downturn, because it's not long term downturn, because the millennials are about to bail us out of this, as I showed earlier, from 2024 to 37, it just won't be as long or as strong a boom as the baby boom. And again, construction costs soaring. Now suddenly going down, well, that's the sign of the beginning that something's they soared because of the tight supply and all that sort of stuff. But this is a sign that, oh, this is how fast the recession could come. Okay, everybody's saying it's gonna be much, it may come a lot faster, just like this change in price direction. And so in mortgage rates have spiked as well, and they're gonna go back low, the problem is, nobody's gonna be able to get a mortgage loan a year or two from now. So if you're looking to get a mortgage, loan or refinance, most people have done that I would do it now. Because it just be too hard to get one, you will also be able to do that well in the future, because inflation is not here to stay from my point of view. So again, I should not start. Now. Yeah, money supply. So also explode everything showing we're going to correct we're starting to correct this housing bubble. The problem is when it goes down enough, people start losing money or seeing their profit debate. And then it creates this negative cycle on the downturn that just keeps going. And mock mortgage applications are already dropping like a rock not quite as low as 2008, nine, but that was at the bottom recession, were just pre recession. And they're already dropping like a rock, which they started to do in 2006 and seven last time. So this, this, this number on the right side of the chart, these mortgage advocates are gonna go way lower if this keeps happening, and I'm pretty clear that it's going to and again, everybody's now refinance, so nobody could, everybody's got bonuses you get to me, we've been getting not only low cost money for everything, but we everybody's been able to refinance, they just get like, you know, like you've won the lottery or won a game show or some shit, you know, so and so we're out of that, too. Okay, I'm just saying all of this stuff is saying we exhausted all the benefits from this bubble. And everybody's higher than a chi. And and this is exactly when he collapsed and hit the pavement and go into rehab if you're a drug addict. So, here we see the bubble before the first tech bubble. Early Stage bubble goes up peaks, 2000, crashes, 95% a lot of heaven, okay. A lot of people don't realize that Amazon, the greatest online retailer in all of history, and and all that stuff was just merging in the mainstream, just going public in 98. And that bubble went from $6 to 136, in two years, in two years, and then crashed all the way back to 690 6%. In a year and a half after that, and the crowd tech wreck of 2000 2002. Okay, so that was the first tech bubble, and it crashed bubbles only crash if anybody anywhere can find me bubbles that look like this, and act like this. And don't crash, I will kiss your ass in public and quit what I'm doing okay, because I've looked and I haven't found it. But so look at the size of this bubble, and it's more pervasive, more global, and it's everything. This bubble has started to crash. The next wave is due to start down anytime and there should be two more ways before we hit bottom in the next year or two. Now, here's the Bitcoin. I saw you know, the dot coms were the leading edge of that first bubble. It was a general tech bubble and a general stock bubble. The tech stocks better did NASDAQ did better than the s&p and Amazon and the.com they did better than NASDAQ. Okay, Bitcoin is like that. Now crypto is real. They may look like an invisible coin but it's the most complex chain of software on the earth almost. And it is going it is going to transform a guy see I didn't get it till guy speaking in my own calm Princeton 2019 Mark yusko said that crypto and Bitcoin and blockchain is the digitisation listen to this one sentence of all financial services and money.

Now, I already told you how big that is $600 trillion. That's when I heard that that's when I got crypto. I don't understand it either totally. But if it's going to digitize and transform and make that whole thing more efficient, then it's the next big thing bigger than online retailing and Amazon and all this stuff. But if I just say, Okay, why don't I use for comp for Bitcoin? Why don't I use Amazon that just follows what Amazon did first bubble, early bubble, big crash 95 96%. And then a longer boom, this would project Bitcoin would reach 780,000, by about 2037 to 2040. I'll tell you another thing I could do simply burst this it's an exponential trend, especially in leading edge technologies, but everything's exponential. If you just had a first baby, you know, bubble, and then a big crash, just if you expect the next wave up in an exponential trend to be 10x, that will 10x is 69,000 Firstbeat would be 690,000. Very close to this number. So this is not an outrageous number. So imagine if this charts right and the red line go and we go down to where the red line bottom, that means Bitcoin would go down to three to $4,000 on the way up maybe 13 years later to 708,000 Do you want to make a fortune do it but also remember, even at 16,000 Recently, and it's back to 41 today and 44 reason okay? Even if 16 to follow the three is an 80% drop, okay? So until I it is possible to Bitcoin on a normal four year cycle in Bitcoin, it would have bottomed in late 2022, early 2023. But this is a bigger first hole, early stage bubble over three, four year cycles, 12 years. And so the downturn should not only be more but take longer to bottom. I say don't touch cryptocurrency until mid to late next year, and then if it's down anywhere near I'm talking sell your kids and the house and buy Okay.

When you say down here down to what levels would you say that this is gonna get?

I was just looking at a chart and didn't know what it was and totally unbiased 3250 where I'd say that's going that's the simply the low from the last the last bubble that hit 20 and crashed down to 30 to 50 in late 2018. Okay, it would be the last low and that's where any chart is would look at that chart and if I put that chart from any chart is they didn't know what to do they say oh yeah, we had a fifth wave high and we've had an a wave crash but but we still got it in a B wave bounce but we have to see wage got to go back down to that fourth wave low doesn't wipe out the whole giant boom before that just back to the fourth wave look. Well that fourth wave blow is 30 to 50 to 4000 that's it's actually 30 to 50 so now it might just be it should it be at least lower if it goes down again into 16 recently but point is it's too early to jump into bitcoin here a lot of people think it's fine if it doesn't by 2024 I may miss something but I touched on it here that's all I'm telling him and I will I will be I will have a hard time buying anything else if he gets anywhere near there so

weary What about luxury markets where people are if they buy rent stay out of it

luxury real estate goes up the most and goes down the most bigger the bubble bigger the birth that's another simple principle. So that's what that's what I get that's why I say these ladies come up to me after all ladies and say oh but Harry the basically the story is my real estate is so special Harry you don't think it's gonna go down do you? And like it sounds better real estate that goes down special what is gonna bubble course special stuff is gonna bubble more than boring stuff in Ohio. Okay, of course and it does. So it is real estate. That's the biggest illusion I see. Real Estate won't go down that much and special. I've got special real estate I'm not selling that is too special well I would sell it if you can I actually bought a home here in Puerto Rico because I got it half off that's the only reason I bought it okay now this is just again just to kind of tie up here here's just some signs of a topping process the Russell 2000 smaller cap stock they always weekend first and the dumb money the people just coming out of you know nowhere and oh I got again this stock market Canadians keep going up and my bro They just made a bunch of money. Well, that's what they go and they go into large caps. So the small caps started to go sideways and fail first, this is the classic channel idea i This is should be the last bounce here, I do not expect a new high, I don't expect it to make it up to that II because the traders wouldn't make it that obvious. So we see this turned down and go to that bottom line about 1630 on the Russell 2000 Small cap index, that's going to say the next wave is going to go down quick. And that's not going to be the last way that's just going to be there that first wave down the bounce we're in, next wave goes down bounces, and then on wave after that, that's just the next wave will be at 1220. And that'll put that down about 60% from the off, and then people can be wishing, oh, I wish I hadn't talked my stockbroker. And he said sit out. This is just a correction. That's not a correction. Okay. And this is not going to be the end up. Here's the NASDAQ just that next way, where would it go back to the COVID lows between 6200 6700. That's going to be down 60%, too. And that's not that's just the third way down, you'll get another bounce in the fifth wave will completed. And that will go to about 11 at the 2009 lows. And that's not that far back in history. So again, any Chartist if they didn't know what this is, it's a bit like, like, you know, kindergarten is the piece of cake. Oh, yeah, of course. Yeah. Go back to that fourth way, go back to 2009. Low. So the 2009 lows and stocks is where we're probably heading. That's a bigger crash than people think. And the 2012. Even more recent lows and real estate is all I'm talking about wiping out not the whole boom since the 1980s. Okay, and but it's that big. It's 50% An average real estate and it's probably 60 to 70%. And upscale real estate is the Lord people were asking the upscale real estate is the most dangerous, rich people are going to get the biggest ask kicking in this once in a lifetime bubble bursts is what I'm saying. And that's fortunately,

when you say rich people, are you talking about the high income earners, those who have put too much into, like the market as a diversification or

whatever? Yeah, the people who have the highest quality real estate, okay? Are the highest growth businesses, whatever. I mean, you know, rich people can afford to buy much nicer homes. And they've been doing that and more people have been trading up. The normal trade up, the normal starter home used to be bought at 26. Now it's 36. Because they're so expensive. And the normal trade up home, the final best home that you keep for the rest of your life, even when your kids leave. The nice one with the with the cliff view over Malibu is talking about those normally peak at 42. And now it's 56, which show me you got to be old and have no kids whatsoever to support even think of buying that trade up home now. So that's another sign of, of overvaluation. But if you want that dream, vacation home retirement home, and they often tend to be the same for a lot of people that time to buy, it's going to be a couple years from now, you're gonna have plenty of time. Last time, it took stocks about two years to bottom, but real estate six years, this time, it's going to take about three from the top and 2021 ended late 2024 25 to buy real estate will bottom years after that. So you're gonna have plenty of time to look for. But real estate is going to be the real bargain for most people.

And then here. And here, you started, when you started your conversation, we talked about small businesses. Where do you think small businesses are going to land in this? Because as you as I think we've always, always agree, small businesses drive this market, like you said, people drive markets. So where will that end up going? You think service based businesses maybe speak to a few industries, okay.

Good and bad. I mean, when I got I got out of Bain and Company and Harvard Business School and realized I was not made for the corporate world, and it didn't take me long to get started working with small business. First thing, every client I had an end up being a turnaround, everyone I dig in the business, but you're going under, okay, small businesses don't have capital, they can't raise capital, either. It's costly. And if they make any mistakes, they get crucified. Nobody ever given capital, you know, it's a much harder thing. They create most of growth, they create most of the jobs, they create most of the innovation. That's why I love working with entrepreneurs, and couldn't stand work. I couldn't even work with corporate people as a consultant from Bain and Company, okay? So it's so that's the dynamics, but it is the riskiest thing is to own your own business. So here, the real strategy is very simple. The way you survive a downturn like this, again, small businesses will be way more nimble. That's the huge advantages. Long, large companies cannot make changes nearly as fast. So if you're nimble, but you want to be ready, do this in advance. You don't have much time now but I thought maybe two years but then you'd have more time. strategic focus principle number one, what do you do best fool your best companies, if you analyze and off and take out your fixed cost and realize how much you're spending there and cut that in half, which you usually do, or at least 20%. And then see where your contribution margin from every sale, that it's your sales minus your variable costs were that 6070 80%. That's where you're going to get the most if you invest in marketing and things that grow that you're going to get the most cash flow. So you want to focus strategic focus on your best car markets and clients, and you want to cut costs, especially overhead. Go look at your overheads. When I was a consultant, with Bain all the way down to small companies, first thing, we look at the overheads to get them out of the way of the variable costs. So you know how much you're really making on every sale, but also, that's where you can cut. That's where the most waste because nobody sees that stuff. So you got to hunker down, focus on your best markets, lean and mean and cut overheads to the bone. And you will get to this for one reason, this is not going to wipe out all businesses in any sector. Okay, this is men, this is how God makes things better survival of the fittest. Okay, so challenges are good. We need challenge now a man, okay, this challenge is to separate the good businesses from the mediocre you want, if you're focused, and you've got good customers, and you've cut your costs, you are going to survive this while your clients fall and what you're going to gain even in the doubt, you're going to take their clients while they're down. And then you're going to ride them up the next time you're going to ride next time with your clients doing better and a whole new set of clients you took from your weak competitor. So second thing, look at all your competitors. And as they for the weak people. Okay, well, these are the people to look at. These are the people you want to steal clients from I don't mean literally steal, but they're, you're not gonna have to steal them, they're gonna fall on your lap because these other companies are gonna get in trouble quick. Okay, real quick, I gotta summarize. And then we can take a more general. So again, this is just a just a real quick, this is what I see happening for the s&p 500, which is not the tech heavy NASDAQ, not the small cap relative, but just you know, the best general market, we've seen a first crash, it has to be close to 30 40% are the bubble doesn't lose enough momentum. So that's a sign that bubble is likely over, we've seen a strong bounce because people aren't going to believe it. At first, they used to it always go on back. It's been doing it ever since 2008. Nine, in fact, it's been doing it ever since 1982. Really? Okay, well, I think this bounce is about over the next wave down is going to be bigger and harder. That takes us down that minus 55%. Probably by mid 2024. By to take my best guess way things are going, you get a bounce there and you get a final crash around late 2024 into 2025. That should take us down more like 86% on the s&p 592% of my estimate from that back. And again, it's just going back to 2009. Low okay, this is to have economy grow the greatest in history from 1982 to 2021. Including a lot of free stimulus from hell, okay. In in C it just go back to his 2009 lows. That's, that's, that's normal. That's what always happens. What doesn't always happen is we have a king sized bubble. It's the bubble that has to burst and the bubble that's excessive. And if you don't see it's a bubble, it's gonna wipe you out. That's what I'm saying. I'm just trying to here to say, looks like a bubble quacks like a bubble. It's a frickin bubble. Okay. And people always are all I get it. Oh, Harry, it's not a bubble cup. Look at the frickin charts. It's a bubble. Just look at it. Okay, look at and quacking like a bubble. So at least be cautious. If I'm wrong, you may get a little too conservative for one year, we're going to find this out next year by my book, okay, you're not going to have to do this for long. And if you do it, you're going to be rewarded so much, you're not going to be able to keep up with the growth on the other side. Here's China. There's a beautiful pattern and look at this funny Big Top big crash in the middle of neck pop seaway big craft D and the E Wade came amid to get back up to a declining thing. And it's just right I'm literally it's a percent from breaking through this bottom that breaks cleanly to that this China market will be down to 1000 and that'll be down like a percent or something from the top. Okay. So so you know, this is going to be a global bubble bursts because everything is bubbled here. Now, what I've tried to hit it earlier, and this is very important because a lot of people like me, Peter Schiff, and a ton of the most people who are saying this is a bubble. This is irresponsible. You can't live off a debt and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. They're all buying gold and silver. I am not not the worst place to be. Gold ended up in the late part of the 2008 crash going down 50% After kind of holding up and went up some but it went down 50% In the end, that was not the worst thing to have back then. But I don't want to lose 50% I want to be in these treasury bonds that will actually are the actual safe haven because the tread treasury bonds from the US government 2010 and 30 year treasury bonds combined in a fund like TLT, and ETF went up 50%. In 2008. Whenever that was the safe haven, gold looked like it was going to be and then went running home to mommy before is over, down 50%. It was the treasury bonds, you gotta have the longest duration to lock in these higher yields before the deflation and the slowdown on the economy takes those yields down. And it only takes down the safe bond yields because risky bonds and corporate bonds and B and C and D bonds have more risk of default, and that drives their yields up even when inflation is going down. That's a tricky thing to get there. Only the safe bonds, that means triple A double a corporate but even better, what's the safest spot in the world? Yes, we're in debt. We're in debt up. But Japan and Europe has more debt per GDP than we do. Okay. And we have better demographics and both coming out of this, okay, we have a millennial generation and neither of them do okay, Japan Boondall have been a long time ago and will never see their I said back then they'll never see these highs and real estate stocks, again, 989 and 91. And they still haven't and they never will. That's how big a change. This is why I'm crowing so much about it. But here's the thing, if you're going to buy these treasury bonds, T bond, that means treasury bonds, you can get 10 year bond. And and I'm not looking at the big crash like this. But just in a more modest crash, those bonds went up nine and a half percent. But if you're locked in that bond for 30 years, when you got a little bit of falling inflation and rates, you'd have a 38% If you got a zero coupon bond, they call them where they don't pay the interest, you're just getting the capital, well, then your your capital appreciation tends to be higher when you strip out the interest. I don't want to explain that that went up 50% And TLT, that owns an average it's an ETF that only I high volume, high quality ETF that owns a combination of let's say about half 10 and 30. A Bond went up 22% Right in between that nine and a half and 39. This is where you make money safely. The safest investments do well, when all the risky ones are all going down. And remember I said before, even the roaring 20s was not an everything bubble, real estate bubbles modestly. Stocks bubble crazy, okay, and things like that. And that's what went down. Okay. And craft, this is an everything bubble, there is nowhere to hide, except the safest bonds and the safest ones. And again, I know the US government has been borrowed, borrowed like a drunken sailor, we're just less drunk than everybody else. And that matters. money's got to go somewhere. And I'm telling you, this is where it went in 2008. And here's another here's a simple rule

1.5, whatever you felt in your business loss or an economy down, or your investments going down, or real estate or whatever, multiply that times 1.5. So real estate went down 57%. Okay, I mean, stocks, 57% and 2008, nine crash, I'm saying 86%. That's 1.5. I got to that number in different ways by in the charts, but it's 1.5. So that's a good way to gauge and decide, Okay, do I need to really hedge this, or you know how to get around this, but the best thing to do is get mean and lean, get in safe investments. And again, I'm talking likely for one year, maybe a little more. And as soon as we see these things crash, it's going to quickly come to a point where Okay, now you buy real estate again, now you buy stocks, again, it may you won't see as big a boom as you did before, but you're gonna be buying so cheap, you're gonna do very, very well. And you're going to do, it's the only way to do well, because nothing's going to boom and bubble like it did in this once in a lifetime bubble and again, and once in a lifetime, once in history, double bubble to two tech bubbles 2002 1021. That's never happened. And those two bubbles are so much bigger and more vast than the roaring 20s Bubble you can't compare. So again, next one to two years, and it's getting closer to one now, most follow mark in your lifetime. The first shock was 2022. The second and bigger one is likely coming in 2024. So this great financial crisis since 29 to 32 will continue and end up looking almost as nearly as bad as that if I'm right, similar magnitude. And again, you'll never see this again and your kids will never sit at once in a lifetime. So it's worth taking some risk of loss of some more little more games to avoid this big potential downside if you only have to do it for one year to find out if I'm right. Good news, unprecedented. 250 year economic explosion. Another thing is that I've studied history so far back people say I need to get a girlfriend okay. 500 year cycle is the most dominant if you go back. Okay before this 90 year cycle So 250 years of this things generally go up, we're in the middle of that, just like in the 1500s, when Christopher Columbus discovered America and all the gunpowder, all that explosion back then this is like we are in a very advantageous time, even longer term. So from the late 1890s, into 2140, approximately 250, we're going to continue to see this economic explosion after this big downturn. So the next and the next stage of that in the US, in particular, next global Boom 2025 to 37. So you're not going to have to wait long to reinvest in real estate or stocks. And again, but everything goes down and says next point. And again, businesses cut costs, focus, focus, focus, and you can't help but win in the big game, what you're looking for is not just okay, how much did I lose anyway. And even if I cut it in half, how much market share am I gaining, because that's what's going to pay off for years and years and years, the more clients you can steal when your competitors can't even service them, because they're literally going under or drowning in their own fixed cost. Okay. Again, for straight investors, I normally ask that allocation, screw asset allocation, this is a crisis in a crisis, you do the same thing. He's these 30 year treasury bonds, 10 year minimum, and Triple A corporates, if you gotta buy corporate bonds. Again, if somebody if you're in a company, and they got suddenly got all these selections, by the most conservative long term bond selection, you can pick and don't touch any equities or real estate related things, not even REITs. But REITs would be better than the normal real estate. And then again, late 2024, or sometimes the next global boom, first age 2037, India and Southeast Asia will be the best globally, Australia, New Zealand will do the best of the developed world along with Norway and Sweden and Scandinavia. Aging sectors, you don't mind number one sector and I don't know how you invest in it, but there's got to be a way nursing homes. Of all my things about the whole lifetime cradle to grave. The last thing that people spend the most Pekin spending is that 84 nursing homes and by 84, you know, it's not the men the men are long gone, go to nursing home, it's going to be 10 to 110 women to one man and if your man last man standing as you get laid more than you did the rest the rest of your life before, okay? Nursing homes are going to be the best place to make money, find a way to invest in that or a stock that plays that. But But again, it's anything agent Arby's do well, okay, but everyday person retires and says almost see the country state by a big ass RV. And those are going to be on sale for the next couple of years. So again, that's what I got to say in a short period of time. This is a radical time folks. And even half get this right and half see it, you're going to be way ahead of the of the crowd here.

Love it. So come live. If you have questions, we have about 30 seconds to a minute, and we've got to keep moving on. Any other questions for those of you?

Well, I'm going to chime in right here, obviously. I was able to follow most of what Harry was talking about. I've actually read some of your books Harry over the years. I'm a person involved in this community are worked on Wall Street for a long time and your books are prolific. Most traders have read them. I actually agree with a lot of Harry's conclusions. I also see the datasets that he's looking at and showing as to why these things could occur. I see a lot of Elliott Wave interpretations

of where we are. I know Robert proctor he's one of my favorite people. And I

know Dan Isanti his partner, he lives in Florida. And so yes, it's these are things that I've been looking at I actually pay attention to some of this in my machine learning algorithms. That's a good point. I say this Harry, I would love a conversation with you at some point in the future. Just one on one you're gonna be a sit down thing. But I actually agree with a lot of Harry's conclusions. I think timing of these things are always the most difficult aspect of it. Yeah, I see the agree I agree in a deflationary environment over the the in the future and that deflationary environment means you should be buying bonds, the safest ones you can.

So Kelly, really quick to that point. And so Harry, I'll get you to connected so he actually I mean, you guys have such similar backgrounds, designs all of the AI algorithms for I flip. So I know I've introduced you to that before. But Kelly, are you going to do any smart folios around what's coming and like the 30 year bonds, or you're going to have a variety of these kinds of investments in the smart folio options,

the the, if you if you consider what Harry just posited, the the smart folio really would be just an ownership of long term treasuries, or like the TLT ETF, those are the basically the only places to hide if this scenario unfolds. And I can tell you, there's other data that did, Harry didn't point out that he's probably withheld for the sake of his presentation there and also support his arguments. And so, yes, it's quite easy to develop things around that. But I think this is such a huge topic. And that's one of the same things that why our machine learning has kept flip very relatively, on the sidelines for 2023. It sees a lot of this kind of information, and it interprets it really the same way. It doesn't use Elliott Wave or things like this. However, it does try to hedge the concept of if you're going to be in the market, you have to always assume that there is a chance and a risk of ruin. And if there is a risk of Ruin, how do we manage that? And how do we manage that also, assuming we're wrong, the only thing we could be right that Harry could be wrong on is timing. But I think in general, there is some come up and there is a reckoning with the way society has grown, the way the world has changed, the way prices have inflated, that will occur in the not so distant future. So there's so much to talk about so much data was thrown at everybody today. I congratulate you, Harry, I think some of that data is stuff I have not seen. And again, that's a topic for another day. Should you want one. And again, I could speak in many ways around what we just heard, Hey,

real quick, I got a sample tear for them. I forgot to announce them. And I'm gonna you know, I'm gonna send the slide the whole slideshow to Laurel so you guys can get the slideshow you can have, it will make a lot more sense, you got enough to get the gist, you can go over this. And I'll make a lot more sense. If you can sit and go through it more,

you're correct. And I would like to slides in maybe or a little access to see somewhere some of that came from but not much, because I basically understand it. And I've seen most of those slides also Lacey hunt. I actually think he's one of the smartest economists on the street. And so it's interesting,

almost the only one.

Yeah, I watched some of his seminars as well. And by the way, he paints a similar picture to yours about

what's going to do is look at all this is looking at reality. There's nothing complicated about a lot of it. Most people just want to be bullish and always find a way to keep the cash cow going here, you know, so in both theory was the one thing, Harry, what's the one thing you're looking for? That's like the canary in the coal mine. For for lack of a technical term here shits getting real. I told my audience before the first thing I'm looking forward to 30 to 40% first crash. So a crash that comes quick within six to 12 months. And that did happen, I would have liked to see it be a little more. But the first crash was 38% and the NASDAQ and 28%. The s&p 500 When I looked at every bubble in history, that you know, the first credit does bubbles are hard to stop, they have a lot of momentum that we would have tasted break the momentum the first crash is between 28 and 50%. So that's what I was looking for at least 20%. So we got that the s&p and we got more than that. So I think even though a few things might make a slight new I think that was saying that gave me more confidence. There was a top and once it tops, you know all we need to see now is a new low 10,088 The NASDAQ from the last low in this first crash and even to me just to see a strong weakening, it'd be enough but you see we go through that. Then this thing is in motion and you're in the third wave and that third wave is definitely going to be stronger than the first way. And that's when you know that this this thing's gonna keep going but it's got to break there. I mean, it is possible we already bought them but it doesn't look like it to me.

Thanks for listening to The Real Money Talks podcast. Your host has been Loral Langemeier, author of five New York Times best sellers, money expert on Dr. Phil, CNN, CNBC, the street TV, Fox News and the view. Want to learn more about off Wall Street investing Tech strategies and multimillion dollar business strategies. Visit live out loud.com/podcast for past episodes, show notes and resources. For some special wealth building gifts only for laurels podcast listeners, visit live out loud.com/podcast gifts. Do you have a burning question for Laurel? Visit ask laurel.com to submit your question and it may just be covered on a podcast episode. So stay tuned and be sure to subscribe to get new episodes every week.