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WK 17 Saturday DFS (00:00:00)

LAC @ NE (00:00:40)

DEN @ CIN (00:05:32)

ARI @ LAR (00:10:17)

Lineup Building (00:13:35)

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Judy: 00:00:01

Welcome to Fangirl Football.

Judy: 00:00:03

I'm Judy.

Lauren: 00:00:03

And I'm Lauren.

Lauren: 00:00:06

Welcome to our Saturday Mini DFS episode for week 17.

Lauren: 00:00:11

We have a couple of games this Saturday after some fun yesterday for Christmas Day games.

Lauren: 00:00:16

So let's jump in and talk all the games this Saturday and then build some lineups.

Lauren: 00:00:22

What do y'all say?

Speaker C: 00:00:23

Let's do it.

Judy: 00:00:24

Sounds good.

Judy: 00:00:24

Yeah, sounds good.

Speaker C: 00:00:26

Might be more of a weather report than a game analysis this week, but.

Judy: 00:00:30

I think Saturday looks okay, but Sunday not so much.

Lauren: 00:00:35

Weather will be impacting our next discussion.

Lauren: 00:00:38

If you are listening to this one, check out our Sunday DFS episode as well.

Lauren: 00:00:43

We'll link it in the description once it is out.

Lauren: 00:00:46

Let's jump into the Chargers at the Patriots where the Chargers are favored by four and the over under is 42 and a half.

Lauren: 00:00:54

Normally I don't think I'd look too closely at 42 and a half games, but what about this one?

Speaker C: 00:00:59

Yeah and at three game slate we're going to see what kind of value we can squeeze here and I think there is some value in the passing games here.

Speaker C: 00:01:07

We kind of have some of the lesser known skill positions compared to the other names we'll talk about.

Speaker C: 00:01:13

I think the New England pass catchers they're letting May air it out and he's looked pretty good, but he is spreading it out between Douglas, Keshan, Butte and Bourne.

Speaker C: 00:01:24

But I think all of them have a decent shot collectively to score a touchdown.

Speaker C: 00:01:28

One of those three of them.

Speaker C: 00:01:29

So then if you can hit on that value, it really gives you some leverage moving forward into the slate.

Judy: 00:01:35

It does.

Judy: 00:01:36

I think we're on opposite sides of which one of these New England pass catchers it might be in recent weeks.

Judy: 00:01:42

It definitely seems like it's more Keisha Butte than Demario Douglas, but we can even Bourne has seen more targets than Douglas few weeks.

Speaker C: 00:01:53

I will say Douglas got in the end zone a couple weeks ago and then last week he had one called back where he was barely an incompletion and they reviewed it and flipped it.

Speaker C: 00:02:02

But also they heavily involved their pass catching and I think Austin Hooper is shot in the dark.

Speaker C: 00:02:08

There's not too many tight ends on the slate and so I think almost everyone will go McBride or Hunter Henry or even Will Diseley for the Chargers.

Speaker C: 00:02:17

And Austin Hooper might be an interesting way where they both got four catches last time.

Speaker C: 00:02:23

A lot of times when you play Hunter Henry you're watching some guy catch the ball and then you realize it's Hooper after you've already been cheering.

Speaker C: 00:02:31

So I can see that happening again and he might be a good way to get different on the smaller game slate.

Lauren: 00:02:37

You mentioned Disley, which I who I know was injured recently, which is kind of a good segue to Chargers who are still injured and questionable.

Lauren: 00:02:45

I think I saw Gus Edwards is out.

Speaker C: 00:02:48

Yeah, we got Edwards out and we got Dobbins trying to return from IR and he's still questionable.

Speaker C: 00:02:54

So as of now, the quotes we've gotten from their offensive coordinator, it seems like he's going to play and we're projecting him to play.

Speaker C: 00:03:03

But behind them we've got Haskins and Videl.

Speaker C: 00:03:06

Do you have any lean for those three?

Judy: 00:03:09

I like Haskins a little bit more than Vidal.

Judy: 00:03:12

Videl's just done nothing and shown me nothing all year.

Judy: 00:03:15

Last week they used Haskins in the passing game so we had two catches and a touchdown.

Judy: 00:03:21

He almost got to 12 fantasy points.

Judy: 00:03:23

I like that option of being the pass catcher.

Judy: 00:03:27

They have not passed to Vidal at all.

Speaker C: 00:03:30

Yeah, personally I think if Dobbins is active he will see a heavy involvement and especially this is kind of a rainy game in New England and they might just lean on the run if they can against a pretty weak New England defense.

Judy: 00:03:47

To me, that's why you don't want to bring back J.K.

Judy: 00:03:49

dobbins if it's sloppy.

Judy: 00:03:51

I don't want my returning from injured injury player going out in a game that has a little bit more risk to it.

Judy: 00:04:01

I would rather if possible lean on my other two backs and try to keep at least JK Dobbins healthy for the playoffs.

Speaker C: 00:04:10

I think that makes sense.

Speaker C: 00:04:11

And if it's a competitive game, I think Dobbins will get more involvement just because this is a winning in situation for the Chargers playoffs and.

Judy: 00:04:21

But you can't think this is going to be a competitive game.

Speaker C: 00:04:24

I don't know.

Speaker C: 00:04:24

Vegas has only a four point spread.

Speaker C: 00:04:26

They think New England's going to be in it come the end of the game.

Judy: 00:04:30

So the Chargers have the top scoring defense in the NFL and they've allowed 20 points or less on all of its road games.

Judy: 00:04:38

I don't think this is the game that they give up more than 20 points and let New England have their way with them.

Speaker C: 00:04:46

Yeah, I think that's kind of, you know, 42 point over under says more about what they think of the Chargers expectations and they're kind of banged up skill positions.

Speaker C: 00:04:55

But McConkey is a great play in this limited slate for just the PPR bonus to and he's the engine of that passing game.

Speaker C: 00:05:03

For the Chargers he is.

Judy: 00:05:05

And I think this is this one is going to come down to weather and how bad is it because I really want to keep players healthy and just make the playoffs right now if I'm the Chargers.

Judy: 00:05:15

And by the way, is Disley in?

Judy: 00:05:18

I thought he was still questionable and it could be stone smart at tight end who has been pretty involved as.

Speaker C: 00:05:26

Well, even if he isn't.

Speaker C: 00:05:28

They've also had Hayden Hurst return last week and with three of them kind of sharing tight end snaps, that's not really a situation where I want to get into it and I think I'm just avoiding all three of them.

Lauren: 00:05:39

Let's continue on to the Denver Cincinnati game where Cincinnati's favored by three and a half over under is 49 and a half.

Lauren: 00:05:47

This is a much higher over under.

Lauren: 00:05:49

We like games with Cincinnati.

Lauren: 00:05:51

They tend to put up the 30 points and let the other team put up 30 points.

Lauren: 00:05:55

We got a lot of running backs on the Denver side to go through.

Judy: 00:05:58

We do.

Judy: 00:05:59

Rain's also likely at this game, but it looks to be 62 degrees in Cincinnati and no winds.

Speaker C: 00:06:05

Yeah, we still got some motivation in this game.

Speaker C: 00:06:07

Cincinnati still hanging off for dear life for some playoff hopes and they need this win to try to steal it from the Broncos.

Speaker C: 00:06:14

But like you were saying, there has been a lot of value attacking the Cincinnati defense.

Speaker C: 00:06:19

Running backs tend to have great games against Cincinnati.

Speaker C: 00:06:22

So what can we actually do with the Broncos offense?

Speaker C: 00:06:25

They really like their committee and they share the touches between Audrey Estimate, Javante Williams and McLaughlin and each of them are about they're pretty cheap, just like those New England pass catchers.

Speaker C: 00:06:37

If you're able to hit on these cheaper dart throws in this limited slate, it's going to give you a lot of value and kind of skyrocket you up those tournament leaderboards.

Speaker C: 00:06:48

My personal lean is McLaughlin.

Speaker C: 00:06:51

He's been seeing about 46% of the total running back touches, combined receptions and run attempts.

Speaker C: 00:06:59

He did sit out the last game, but it was a Thursday night game, it was a short week, so he's had that longer time to recover from that injury and he's heavily involved in the passing game.

Speaker C: 00:07:08

So even if the Bengals get up to start this game, he'll be involved.

Speaker C: 00:07:12

.: 7000

Speaker C: 00:07:17

I think he's the best deal out of all three of them.

Judy: 00:07:19

I am concerned and one of the things that I'd like to look up in this game is particularly in the Broncos matchup with Cleveland how used was he there?

Judy: 00:07:30

Because they were clearly in a shootout against the Browns when that game went crazy.

Judy: 00:07:35

So if any of the running backs were used in that game, then I would be okay going a little bit more in on them.

Judy: 00:07:44

But if they abandon that run game because they're behind, I think they're going to be behind in this game as well.

Judy: 00:07:50

Against Cincinnati, this game could like stall a little bit early and then they start moving Jamar, chase around and get him away from Sutain and they figure out how to get him the ball.

Speaker C: 00:08:04

In that high scoring game.

Speaker C: 00:08:06

When the Broncos were in that shootout with Cleveland, McLaughlin was the clear leading rusher with 14 carries compared to three and one for the other two running backs.

Speaker C: 00:08:15

And then none of them were heavily involved in the passing games.

Speaker C: 00:08:18

You wound up more with the downfield threats with Sudden and Mims showcasing in those games.

Judy: 00:08:24

That's what I'm afraid is going to happen here, that we're going to be all passing, that the, the Broncos are going to get behind and they're going to try to catch up and they're just going to abandon that run and go to Cortland, Sutton and Mems.

Judy: 00:08:39

But if it's raining may not work out that way.

Speaker C: 00:08:43

Yeah.

Speaker C: 00:08:44

And I think that defense will keep them in it.

Speaker C: 00:08:47

I don't think they'll far fall too far behind.

Speaker C: 00:08:50

The Broncos have continued to beat expectations throughout the year.

Judy: 00:08:54

So on an interesting note on over, unders and rain, I pulled the data today for the season and of all the games just over 51% hit the over.

Judy: 00:09:06

This year if it rains, only 41% are hitting the over.

Judy: 00:09:12

So there's a pretty good gap there where we have to be a little bit concerned and this could end up being a very low scoring week for dfs.

Speaker C: 00:09:22

Yeah.

Speaker C: 00:09:23

And this is the highest over under the slate.

Speaker C: 00:09:25

I think this is the primary game that people are going to attack on this three game slate.

Speaker C: 00:09:29

So if you want to tell the story that you know there's some, there's some rain, we've got some, we've got a good Denver defense and Denver on offense is kind of inept.

Speaker C: 00:09:41

They're trying to run the ball but nothing's really working.

Speaker C: 00:09:44

And this game just dramatically hits the under.

Speaker C: 00:09:47

We get a 21 to 14 game and go different then then you'll have some good leverage on the rest of the field.

Speaker C: 00:09:56

That had those Chase Higgins stacks could be interesting.

Judy: 00:09:59

I also do love Josevich.

Judy: 00:10:02

I think he's a steal at 3,800.

Judy: 00:10:04

He had a season high 53 receiving yards last week and his sixth touchdown catch for the season.

Judy: 00:10:11

He's had three home games in a row with a touchdown.

Speaker C: 00:10:15

I think he is a great dart throw.

Speaker C: 00:10:17

There's a lot of good pay up options, so he might be a good cheap punt option to kind of fit in and make the rest of your lineup work.

Lauren: 00:10:23

We got one more game on this slate.

Lauren: 00:10:25

Arizona at the Rams, where the Rams are favored by six and a half and the over under is 47 and a half.

Lauren: 00:10:32

Is there any weather here?

Lauren: 00:10:34

Because I remember that that stadium, the SOFI stadium, can have lightning delays apparently.

Lauren: 00:10:39

Even though it looks like a covered stadium.

Judy: 00:10:43

Hopefully it's covered but like, yeah, the sides are kind of open and I guess, I don't know, hopefully there's no lightning in LA this weekend.

Speaker C: 00:10:53

I think, I think we should see this one.

Speaker C: 00:10:55

Should be one of the pretty weather free games we have on the slate.

Speaker C: 00:10:59

But my worry is how motivated are the Cardinals going to be?

Speaker C: 00:11:02

We've seen LA have those crazy high scoring games, but it really seems to be the right.

Speaker C: 00:11:08

You need the right recipe for those.

Speaker C: 00:11:09

You need a high scoring offense on the other side.

Speaker C: 00:11:12

They're at home in the dome and they have to go back and forth with them and so we know they can get there.

Speaker C: 00:11:18

But will Arizona actually put up enough of a fight now that they've already been eliminated from the playoffs to get there?

Judy: 00:11:25

Yeah, I don't know.

Judy: 00:11:26

It doesn't seem like they have a whole lot of fight left in them and now they've got issues running back with James Conner and Trey Benson both injured and limited in practice.

Judy: 00:11:36

So we're waiting to see who might be running the ball.

Judy: 00:11:39

Earlier in the week they, they kind of indicated there was more wrong with James Conner, so I wouldn't want to even start him in this situation.

Judy: 00:11:47

I feel like the Rams are actually a pretty good match, but I feel even if James Conner plays, he won't play the whole game.

Lauren: 00:11:56

Did McBride get his touchdowns yet?

Speaker C: 00:11:58

No, he did not get them last week.

Speaker C: 00:12:01

This is a good spot for him.

Speaker C: 00:12:03

He does pretty well and he's done pretty well against LA in the past and he has a good matchup here.

Speaker C: 00:12:09

But my worry is that how much do they actually want to beat him up?

Speaker C: 00:12:14

He's going to be a key part of that offense moving into next year and they might protect him.

Speaker C: 00:12:19

But I will say that he was pissed off at the end of the last game where he was getting pulled off the field in critical downs and he was letting the coaching staff know it.

Speaker C: 00:12:28

So he might have that squeaky wheel effect and I really do like him in a pay up spot.

Speaker C: 00:12:33

There's not too many tight ends on this slate so he could be a true difference maker and have those a hundred yard games get that bonus on DraftKings.

Judy: 00:12:42

I was equally as mad he cost me best ball last week.

Judy: 00:12:45

His five points.

Judy: 00:12:47

I couldn't believe it.

Judy: 00:12:49

All I need is like 15 points from you and I.

Judy: 00:12:53

I'm advancing and nope.

Speaker C: 00:12:55

Yeah, he had the master too.

Lauren: 00:12:57

Five points.

Judy: 00:12:57

Yeah, he did.

Judy: 00:12:59

And I feel like Kyron Williams out of this game is one that we have to have because the Cardinals gave up the 41 points to Charbonnet three weeks ago and 35 to Chuba Hubbard last week.

Judy: 00:13:13

I, I think Kyron is one that we've got to slate in and pay for.

Speaker C: 00:13:18

I completely agree.

Speaker C: 00:13:20

I think he's going to be very popular but for a good reason and there's not a lot of those elite running back options on the slate and he's worth the pay up spot.

Lauren: 00:13:29

That's exactly what I was going to say is that it feels like we don't have as many running back options this week for the Saturday games and so Williams gives us one of those lock in spots.

Lauren: 00:13:39

Do you think he'll have high ownership then though?

Judy: 00:13:42

I do but let's lock him in.

Lauren: 00:13:44

And start building and then come back to our stacks.

Judy: 00:13:49

Yeah, we can talk talk stacks now.

Judy: 00:13:51

We'll just.

Judy: 00:13:52

We've put Kyron Williams in there.

Judy: 00:13:54

So now who do we want to stack around him?

Speaker C: 00:13:57

I'm kind of liking the cheaper side of the Broncos Bengals game.

Speaker C: 00:14:03

The Bengals are just are so expensive to try to get the burrow and chase and double stack.

Speaker C: 00:14:08

hink he's a great play at the: 6200

Judy: 00:14:20

I agree on nex.

Judy: 00:14:21

It's interesting.

Judy: 00:14:22

He's the second most expensive quarterback next to Burrow so they're anticipating that game as well when they did this pricing.

Judy: 00:14:28

And our cheapest is Matthew Stafford who could have a great day.

Judy: 00:14:33

But let's put in Bo next.

Judy: 00:14:35

I like his running upside in that game.

Judy: 00:14:38

Are we going with Sutton with him?

Speaker C: 00:14:40

I think you need to.

Speaker C: 00:14:41

He's been such a clear number one.

Speaker C: 00:14:43

Go to forum.

Judy: 00:14:45

Yeah.

Judy: 00:14:46

All right, we'll stack bow next with Sutton and that leaves us.

Judy: 00:14:51

Who else do we want to pay for on this slate?

Judy: 00:14:55

We don't have another running back that I want to pay for because that would really be Chase Brown, who could have a great game.

Judy: 00:15:04

But we probably have so many savings options that we discussed that we want to wait and see what we can can get there.

Judy: 00:15:13

Are there any other wide receivers that you want to pay for?

Judy: 00:15:16

Do you want to pay for Jamar Chase at 8,400 in this game or even Puka and the Rams game?

Speaker C: 00:15:22

I think I'm my most trusted wide receiver out of this entire slate would probably be McConkey.

Speaker C: 00:15:28

Just because that team's banged up, they need a win.

Speaker C: 00:15:32

He's finally back healthy again and he's such a critical aspect of just the way they move the ball that we know he's probably going to see double digit targets and especially a ppr.

Speaker C: 00:15:41

He should really be an engine for the Chargers.

Judy: 00:15:44

All right, we'll put in McConkey.

Judy: 00:15:46

I like McConkey as long as he's healthy.

Lauren: 00:15:49

I feel like we have to pick up a wide receiver from the.

Lauren: 00:15:53

From the Cincinnati Bengals just with that either expectations that it's going to be.

Judy: 00:15:59

I agree.

Speaker C: 00:16:00

I don't like Yoshevas to get different.

Speaker C: 00:16:02

If everyone's done Chase and Higgins, let's say they won, then you're going to get so much value out of that pick.

Judy: 00:16:11

All right, we've got Josevich in there.

Lauren: 00:16:13

Judy.

Lauren: 00:16:14

Three home games in a row with a touchdown.

Judy: 00:16:17

There you go.

Judy: 00:16:17

We'll see if he can make it 4.

Judy: 00:16:19

Do we want to pay up for a tight end and go with McBride?

Speaker C: 00:16:25

I think just looking at those names I'd want to pay up for McBride.

Speaker C: 00:16:29

I don't think there's anyone that's going to kill you of those other tight ends.

Speaker C: 00:16:33

But McBride could.

Judy: 00:16:35

Can we have the Chargers defense and just pay up for them too?

Speaker C: 00:16:38

Let's do it.

Judy: 00:16:39

All right.

Judy: 00:16:40

We've got an.

Judy: 00:16:40

We've got two openings left, a running back and a flex.

Judy: 00:16:43

And we've got 5,000 per player average left.

Judy: 00:16:47

We've got $10,000 left.

Judy: 00:16:49

So if we go with McLaughlin, 4,700.

Judy: 00:16:53

That's going to leave us at 5,300 for our flex, which is pretty good.

Judy: 00:16:59

You want to do that?

Speaker C: 00:17:00

Yeah, let's lock that in.

Judy: 00:17:03

Let's do that.

Judy: 00:17:04

All right.

Judy: 00:17:05

Now we are looking at our flex position.

Judy: 00:17:09

I really don't want to mess around with the running backs again.

Judy: 00:17:12

But I'm not real sure who we've got down here.

Judy: 00:17:16

Since we already put in our cheap play at Josevic.

Judy: 00:17:19

We need a relatively inexpensive wide receiver.

Judy: 00:17:24

We're looking at Marvin Harrison Jr.

Judy: 00:17:25

At: 5200

Judy: 00:17:27

Quentin Johnston.

Judy: 00:17:29

I don't Love these plays.

Judy: 00:17:30

I'm going to switch over here.

Judy: 00:17:32

We could pick one of the New England, though.

Judy: 00:17:35

They're really cheap, though.

Judy: 00:17:37

Then we're looking at Bourne or Boot.

Speaker C: 00:17:40

Yeah.

Speaker C: 00:17:41

I think I wouldn't mind the Mario Douglas, but a thousand seems too much of a savings.

Speaker C: 00:17:47

So I wonder if it'd be worth going back and maybe upgrading Makoni or even in our quarterback spot.

Speaker C: 00:17:55

Because I think the difference between Knicks and burrow is about 1,000.

Judy: 00:18:00

If we do Burrow, we're going to have to get Chase.

Speaker C: 00:18:03

That is true.

Judy: 00:18:05

Let's see if instead of McConkey, is there any way we can afford Chase?

Judy: 00:18:11

3,500 for our Flex.

Judy: 00:18:13

Now we're looking at our New England wide receivers to take a chance on them.

Lauren: 00:18:19

Born and Booth Bootay.

Judy: 00:18:22

Yeah.

Judy: 00:18:22

So we've got Bourne.

Judy: 00:18:24

Bourne, I think, is the only one that we can afford.

Speaker C: 00:18:27

But I think he's like.

Speaker C: 00:18:29

I'm saying they're all Darth Bros.

Speaker C: 00:18:31

So I'm not really too concerned over the difference between Demario Douglas and Bourne.

Judy: 00:18:37

So we put Bourne in there.

Judy: 00:18:38

So now that gives us Nick Sutton and Chase out of that game.

Judy: 00:18:43

We could have probably gone Higgins if we wanted to instead, but we already have Josevic in there as well.

Judy: 00:18:52

How are you feeling about this?

Speaker C: 00:18:54

I like it.

Speaker C: 00:18:55

It's basically saying that Higgins isn't going to be heavily involved.

Speaker C: 00:18:59

I do worry about certain on Chase.

Speaker C: 00:19:05

Certain, one of those true shutdown corners.

Speaker C: 00:19:08

But Chase has just been unstoppable all year.

Speaker C: 00:19:10

So I'm willing to bet on talent.

Speaker C: 00:19:12

I'm willing to bet on Chase.

Judy: 00:19:13

Well, and they are moving Chase around.

Judy: 00:19:16

So sometimes he's in the slot, sometimes he's out wide.

Judy: 00:19:19

And I don't think that certain will be on him the entire game.

Judy: 00:19:23

I think he will be going from Chase to T.

Judy: 00:19:27

Higgins and back and forth.

Speaker C: 00:19:30

Yeah.

Speaker C: 00:19:30

And especially at the spot at home in a game they need.

Speaker C: 00:19:33

I like betting on them.

Judy: 00:19:34

Yeah, I do, too.

Judy: 00:19:36

All right, I'm going to update this.

Judy: 00:19:38

We're going to enter it.

Lauren: 00:19:40

I think that wraps us up then for our Saturday episode for week 17, DFS, we have the fangirl football contest up and running.

Lauren: 00:19:49

Links are in the description.

Lauren: 00:19:51

We'd love to have you join us.

Lauren: 00:19:52

And then we'll have our Sunday DFS episode and contest out shortly.

Lauren: 00:19:58

And links for that are also in the description.

Lauren: 00:20:01

Happy holidays.