Taco Meat Tuesday | September 15, 2026

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Taco Meat Tuesday for September 15, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Consumers aren’t walking away from protein. They’re trading around it. Beef is still expensive at retail, but the grind is getting cheaper. Pork has tightened production and still can’t get enough demand underneath it. Chicken keeps putting affordable pounds in front of the consumer. When the price gap gets wide enough, somebody loses an occasion. Beef can lose one to chicken. Pork can be cheap and still not win it. Retailers can get relief at wholesale and keep some of it before the consumer ever sees it. The consumer still wants protein. They just don’t have to buy the same one every week. People don’t quit protein. They trade proteins.

HOST: Fresh beef trim gave grinders more room Monday. Nineties around four thirty-five. Fifties below eighty-nine cents. Packer margins are positive again, so processors have more incentive to run cattle even while year-to-date slaughter remains down seven point six percent. Pork’s issue is clearer: August wholesale demand was down seventeen point three percent year over year. Chicken keeps the relative-value advantage, though new HPAI cases across the Upper Midwest put animal-health risk back in the conversation. Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announces its September rate decision. A quarter-point increase is widely expected.

SHAWN: The cutout did not do much Monday. The grind did. Fresh ninety C L finished around four thirty-five. Eighty-fives around three fifty-two. Fifties below eighty-nine cents. On the weekly averages, nineties fell two point eight percent and fifties nearly seven. For grinders, both sides of the blend got cheaper at the same time. That is a bigger development than another small move in Choice.

HOST: Packers have a reason to run again. Hales estimates calculated margins around plus eighty to plus one hundred ten a head — a fourth consecutive profitable week. Monday slaughter returned to one hundred six thousand after last week totaled five hundred five thousand. The cattle supply did not suddenly improve. USDA still shows slaughter seven point six percent below last year year-to-date. The economics improved.

SHAWN: Mexican cattle are moving again through the Douglas, Arizona port of entry. Current volume remains modest — roughly five hundred eighty to eight hundred fifty head a day presented for inspection. Some of the early cattle are reportedly seven hundred to nine hundred pounds, heavier than the traditional Mexican calf flow. The larger event would be Santa Teresa, New Mexico. That crossing historically handled far more volume. USDA has not confirmed a reopening date.

HOST: Retail is moving more slowly than wholesale. Beef and veal prices fell one percent in August, the second straight monthly decline, but remain five point nine percent above last year. Ground beef was essentially unchanged for the month. Wholesale relief does not automatically become consumer relief. Retailers have room to rebuild margin before every penny gets passed through the meat case.

SHAWN: Pork finally has a number that explains a lot. Wholesale pork demand in August was seventeen point three percent below August twenty twenty-five. The demand index fell from seventy-seven ninety-seven to sixty-four forty-nine. That weakness is estimated to have reduced market hog prices by roughly seven point five percent, or about fifteen twenty-four a head. And August was not a one-off. Wholesale pork demand averaged six point seven percent below last year from January through August.

HOST: Monday’s cutout finished almost unchanged at eighty-nine seventy-eight cents. Underneath it, the carcass was not quiet. Loins gained three thirty-nine cents. Butts added two forty-six. Picnics jumped five seventy-nine. Bellies dropped another ten thirty-three cents to a dollar oh six. On the weekly averages, bellies were down nearly eighteen percent, while hams gained more than eight and fresh seventy-twos increased seven point five. That creates opportunity between primals and raw materials. You can kill fewer hogs. That doesn’t fix demand.

SHAWN: Chicken still has the price advantage. Weekly production reached eight hundred sixty-two point one million pounds, up four point one percent from last year, with year-to-date production running two point two percent higher. Boneless skinless breast values remain more than twenty-six percent below last year. USDA called the market mostly steady — whole birds steady, breast meat at least a steady undertone, wings about steady, dark meat active. Meat-department pounds grew two percent in twenty twenty-five. Millennials and Gen Z accounted for sixty-seven percent of meat unit growth. That matters when chicken can put a materially cheaper meal in front of the consumer.

HOST: The developing risk is HPAI. Minnesota added two commercial detections totaling sixty-two thousand three hundred birds — forty-four thousand three hundred meat turkeys and eighteen thousand breeder birds. Recent commercial cases also in South Dakota, North Dakota, and Manitoba. That is not a chicken supply problem today. With fall migration building, poultry health is back on the radar. Chicken has the pounds. Chicken has the price. Now watch the birds.

SHAWN: The additional three hundred thousand metric ton temporary lean-beef quota is a large headline. USDA’s actual import forecast increase is much smaller. The Daily Livestock Report estimates the additional quota represents roughly nine hundred million pounds carcass weight, yet USDA increased its twenty twenty-six beef-import forecast by only one hundred thirty million pounds in September. USDA now projects six point two six two billion pounds of beef imports in twenty twenty-six, up sixteen point two percent year over year, while domestic beef production is forecast down four point three percent. Brazil has every reason to look harder at the U.S. market. Paraguay has opportunity as well. Buyers will know whether the quota is changing the lean market before the final import statistics arrive. Watch the offers, not the quota headline.

HOST: The Federal Reserve announces Wednesday at two p.m. Eastern. A Reuters poll Monday found eighty-five percent of economists expecting a twenty-five-basis-point increase. Higher rates increase the cost of carrying inventory, financing working capital, and holding forward positions. October crude is already one oh one thirty-nine. December corn five thirty-three and a quarter. November soybeans thirteen oh four and a quarter. October meal three fifty twenty a ton. Cheaper protein does less for you when it costs more to finance it and move it.

SHAWN: Radar. Beef grind improving — nineties and fifties both lower. Pork demand high risk — August wholesale demand down seventeen point three percent. Chicken still has the value advantage. Imported lean is an opportunity if Brazilian and South American forward nineties actually book. Douglas is moving cattle. Santa Teresa would bring substantially more volume. Crude above one hundred with the Fed on Wednesday.

HOST: Snapshot. Choice three seventy-five. Select three fifty-five. Fresh nineties four thirty-five. Fifties eighty-eight cents. Pork cutout ninety cents. Bellies a dollar oh six. October live cattle two twenty-two twenty-five. Feeders three thirty-seven eighty-five. Lean hogs seventy-nine sixty.

SHAWN: Bottom line. Beef grind is getting cheaper even though cattle remain tight. Pork has less of a supply problem than a demand problem. Chicken still owns the relative-value argument. Imported lean and Mexican cattle are giving buyers more options around the edges, while energy and financing costs are pushing the other way. The consumer is still buying protein. They’re just choosing between them. People don’t quit protein. They trade proteins. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Taco Meat Tuesday for September 15, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.