Shownotes
In today's ever-changing property market, decisions can be swayed by fluctuating interest rates, population shifts, affordability concerns, and climate challenges. However, one constant remains to provide a clear path forward: data-driven insights.
From guiding high-level business decisions to shaping regulatory policies, data has become the cornerstone for professionals navigating the property market. But with the proliferation of data comes the challenge of harnessing its potential. Where does one begin when seeking actionable insights in a sea of information?
It all begins with technologies that can translate the vast quantities of data collected within the property industry into insights that inspire action. Whether it’s the transformative power of geospatial data, the role of predictive analytics in risk mitigation, or the implications of emerging technologies like generative AI, these technology solutions will leave their marks on the future of the property business.
In this episode of Core Conversations, host Maiclaire Bolton Smith sits down with CoreLogic’s Chief Innovation Officer John Rogers to dive into the untapped potential of data and its profound impact on the future of real estate.
In This Episode:
- 2:40 – What is Climate Risk Analytics and how does it help mitigate the financial impact of climate change that the SEC now requires?
- 5:24 – Can banks, companies, and homeowners see the effects of a changing climate on a single property?
- 8:12 – What kind of data is needed to power forecasting efforts and define development plans?
- 10:40 – How does geospatial data help define wildfire risk? What else can it help enterprises determine?
- 13:33 – Erika Stanley does the numbers in the housing market in The Sip.
- 14:51 – Have there been any surprising migration patterns that geospatial data has identified?
- 17:31 – Who is John and why does he always have a giant screen?
- 20:28 – Erika Stanley reviews natural catastrophes and extreme weather events across the world.
- 21:51 – How can we ensure that there are good data inputs powering gen AI to avoid the consequences of the adage “garbage in, garbage out”?
Links:
Up Next: Some Insurers Banned AI — Will Insurtech Bring It Back?
Find full episodes with all our guests in our podcast archive here: https://clgx.co/3HFslXD4 Copyright 2024 CoreLogic
Transcripts
John Rogers:
Basically, two houses beside each other can have a completely different risk profile due to climate change.
MBS:
That's crazy.
JR:
One could be very low risk, one could be very high risk, depending on topology, first-floor height, material type of the roof, and so forth, and so forth. Because you can get down to each individual house, that helps regulators shape policy to each individual homeowner.
MBS:
Welcome back to Core Conversations: A CoreLogic Podcast, where we tour the property market to investigate how economics, climate change, governmental policies, and technology affect everyday life. I am your host, Maiclaire Bolton Smith, and I'm just as curious as you are about everything that happens in our industry.
Through interest rate fluctuations, population migration, affordability issues, and climate pressures, data and its measurable insights have remained an anchor for the property market professionals planning their next move. Those data driven insights are becoming increasingly accessible as well as insightful.
There was a time when the property industry relied on spreadsheet inputs and printouts. Now, data is often available in cloud environments with analytics layered on top. But the explosion of data means that it can be hard to know where to start, especially if it means considering an investment in IT, infrastructure, or additional personnel. When leaders are looking for data to drive high level business decisions, where do they begin?
To help make sense of the role data is playing in innovation and how to integrate these insights into daily operations, we have John Rogers, CoreLogic's Chief Innovation Officer here today.
John, welcome back to Core Conversations.
JR:
It's fantastic to be back, Maiclaire. Thank you so much for the invite.
MBS:
All right. Well, it's been a while since we've had you here so I'm excited to chat with you. Let's start with just setting the stage with a couple of hypothetical, or maybe not-so-hypothetical situations. Let's say you're in the business of trying to assess how future weather events could affect the level of economic capital at a bank. Is that something that we can do? How do you anticipate what the future holds, especially with climate change and so many uncertainties?
Erika Stanley:
Before we get into this conversation, I wanted to remind our listeners that we want to help you keep pace with the property market. To make it easy, we curate the latest insight and analysis for you on our social media, where you can find us using the handle @corelogic on Facebook and LinkedIn, or @corelogicinc on X, formerly known as Twitter, and Instagram. But now, let's get back to Maiclaire and John.
JR:
In terms of climate risk and climate risk analytics that we've gone to market with, we've helped several Federal agencies, several banks assess risk.
MBS:
Okay.
JR:
Let me start, just quickly, a reminder on what Climate Risk Analytics is.
MBS:
Yeah, yeah, please.
JR:
ingle property up to the year:MBS:
Wow, okay.
JR:
No other company does that.
MBS:
Yeah.
JR:
Literally down to every single house, understand the financial impact.
MBS:
Amazing.
JR:
We're working with a lender right now, Flagstaff, and they've assess their actual footprint of all their branches.
MBS:
Okay.
JR:
To understand the financial risk of their real estate, on their commercial real estate.
MBS:
Yeah.
JR:
And are already putting in mitigation plans to harden those buildings and those structures against floods and hurricanes, primarily.
MBS:
Okay.
JR:
Those are real life examples of a company taking mitigation steps to protect their assets.
MBS:
Right.
JR:
If you think about the impending SEC guidelines that are coming down the pike, which is basically saying everybody public company needs to disclose any financial materiality due to climate change as part of their filings.
MBS:
Yeah, that's huge.
JR:
That's likely to come out in April this year.
MBS:
Yeah.
JR:
Again, that comes down to your footprint.
MBS:
Right.
JR:
What warehouses, what branches you have, your book of business, and also your third party. That's one way that we're helping our financial clients mitigate risk due to climate.
MBS:
It's really exciting stuff. Okay, one thing I just wanted to clarify is you did mention the SEC. Can you just talk about exactly what that is?
JR:
The SEC is the Securities Exchange Commission.
MBS:
Ah.
JR:
If you're a public company, there's certain rules and regulations of how you disclose financial information. There's new regulations likely to come out in April about any financial materiality on the company's P&L essentially, due to climate change.
MBS:
Yeah.
JR:
We're expecting that to come out pretty soon.
MBS:
Pretty soon, yeah. This is just crazy-interesting stuff, and just so relevant in today's environment too, so that's why I'm really glad we're talking about that. I know we've done research, and we actually had our chief scientist, Dr. Howard Botts, on the podcast last year talking about the worst places and the best places to live, according to climate change. I know we've done that research on the top 10 counties in the U.S., or some of the ones that have the greatest risk to climate change.
JR:
Yeah.
MBS:
I guess the question is, thinking of it in the context of data here, is how can having access to really granular data, specifically at the individual property level, how can that help banks, or even if we're looking at it from a homeowner's perspective, how can that help weather the storms that are ahead of us?
JR:
Very simply, two houses beside each other can have a completely different risk profile due to climate change.
MBS:
That's crazy.
JR:
One could be very low risk, one could be very high risk, depending on topology, first-floor height, material type of the roof, and so forth, and so forth. Because you can get down to each individual house, that helps regulators shape policy to each individual homeowner.
MBS:
Wow.
JR:
That helps banks assess risk on their book of business down to each particular property. It helps insurers set premiums for each individual property. It helps insurers set incentives to lower the premium.
MBS:
Yeah, like mitigation efforts, and such.
JR:
Exactly right. With the wildfire, your fence needs to 12-foot away, and so forth. Because if you can get down to each individual house, that helps a lot of the financial stakeholders put in place the right regulations and policies to help, basically you and I, protect our biggest asset.
MBS:
Yeah.
JR:
That's why it matters. Obviously, if you add all of this up in terms of all the houses, it equates to about $43.5 trillion. As you know, it's the biggest asset class in the world, so it's well worth protecting.
MBS:
Absolutely well worth protecting. It's interesting too, about some people don't quite understand or see ... What's the word I'm looking for? See how amazing things could be, at the actual property level. I live in Southern California, I've talked a lot on this podcast about buying a new house, and moving to this new area. This winter, we've had some crazy rains here in Southern California.
JR:
Yeah.
MBS:
Just even having a conversation with somebody around the corner, and them saying, "I really hope that we don't get flooding." I'm like, "Oh, well actually, the flood risk score of where we live is incredibly low." They're like, "I'm really glad to know that we're not going to flood." I'm like, "Well, it doesn't mean you're not going to flood, it means that there's a lower probability that we'll flood." I'm like, "Actually, your flood risk score is higher than my flood risk score, because I'm a little bit further up the hill." It's something that, just because you're in the same neighborhood. I'm looking at that as friendly neighbor conversation with somebody, of me being a data-science-weather nerd, and them just trying to understand what the risk their property may be.
But if you look at it from the broader perspective of a bank, or even if we go to some corporations, I think of retailers. We've talked on this podcast too, about different types of infrastructure, and moving forward with 5G technology, and different types of infrastructure that we can have. What if we think of a retailer, somebody like Home Depot or AT&T? How can having this type of data and forecasting into the future, how can it be helpful to somebody like them?
JR:
A number of factors. Obviously, if I just think about climate in and of itself, it helps assess the risk of their supply chain. Their warehouses, the distribution centers.
MBS:
Sure, yeah.
JR:
Where do we need to make some places more resilient, in terms of their current structures?
MBS:
Yeah.
JR:
And where would they want to build in the future.
MBS:
Yeah.
JR:
That's one data point.
MBS:
Okay.
JR:
The second part is that, within our location intelligence group, Anand Singh is leading a lot of new initiatives in understanding growth patterns in the United States.
MBS:
Yeah.
JR:
So understanding when land goes from agricultural, to residential, to single-family homes in terms of land code usage, combined with other insights, those are very early indicators of growth patterns.
MBS:
Yeah.
JR:
In the United States. If I'm an infrastructure company, or a telco, or an energy company, or a retailer, I would want to know as soon as possible, understand those growth factors in the United States, and plan accordingly, and invest accordingly, as early as possible.
MBS:
Yeah.
JR:
Depending on the segmentation of that market, the types of homes being built, and so forth. There's a lot of predictive insights that we're providing a whole range of sectors, from our core markets like real estate, mortgage insurance, and also to new markets like retail and infrastructure, as you mentioned.
MBS:
Yeah, so interesting. Yeah, those leading indicators, we actually, in a previous podcast, just talked about that as well too.
JR:
Fantastic.
MBS:
And the importance of geospatial data. It's just really, really interesting in how it is applicable to, you mentioned telecommunications, telco, different industries, and how understanding future expansion growth, population growth, and how that's going to impact everything.
ES:
These growth indicators that John is talking about are what Maiclaire discussed with Joe Francica in our last episode. Tune into to episode 87 to hear more about how location intelligence works, and why it is so vital to the growth of the telco industry.
MBS:
It's all just really interesting. I want to stay on this topic of geospatial data right now because we've talked a lot on this podcast about wildfire risk. I've talked a lot about it again, when I bought this house, about making sure I bought a house in a low wildfire risk area.
But can we talk from a broader perspective of why is knowing exactly where a home is, relative to what we call the wildland-urban interface, so as you're getting to those really high wildfire areas, why is it important to know exactly geospatially where that location is and how close you are to that risk?
JR:
It's probably a bit of a secret that CoreLogic, fundamentally, is a geospatial company.
MBS:
Secret no longer. Attention, world.
JR:
Correct. Correct.
MBS:
We are a geospatial company.
JR:
Correct. Totally right. The ability to geocode the exact point where the parcel is, where the structure is, the topology of the land, allows us to measure anything. Distance to coast, distance to fire hydrants, distance to the wildfire-urban interface. That precise measurement is the fundamental component of understanding risk against each house, dependent on the peril that might affect it. In this case, obviously we were talking about wildfire.
MBS:
Yeah, yeah.
JR:
Without that-
MBS:
It's incredible. Yeah, it really is incredible.
JR:
You can't really do an accurate job. It's amazing.
MBS:
Yeah. I'll throw in a plug for some of these products as well too, because they're very near and dear to my heart. But even just you mentioned to fire station, distance to the wildland-urban interface area, or where the wildfire risk is. Also, from an earthquake perspective too, distance to earthquake fault.
JR:
Yeah.
MBS:
Just distance to flood zone, distance to where you are to the coast. Knowing, from the point on the Earth, the property at risk, and what everything you're exposed to, it's really incredible to know that depth and breadth of the data we do have here at CoreLogic, and just how applicable it is to various industries, as well as just the average homeowner.
JR:
Exactly. Even to think about wildfire, even just proximity to the next house.
MBS:
Yes.
JR:
What's the material type of the house, is it wooden? Is there a high propensity, and so forth.
MBS:
Yeah, that's a really good point, too. We've chatted about that on this podcast as well too, as we've talked through mitigation, is you could do every mitigated effort to your house, to protect your house from wildfire, and your neighbor could have a stack of wood next to their house, and they could be five feet away from you.
JR:
Yeah.
MBS:
Everything you did doesn't mean anything. Having that location proximity to different risk items, it's just really important. Yeah, I'm glad you brought that up.
ES:
Before Maiclaire and John continue the conversation about innovation in the property industry, it's that time again. Grab a cup of coffee or your favorite beverage, we're going to do the numbers in the housing market. Here's what you need to know.
% by early:While no individual state saw price declines, Spokane Valley, Washington; Palm Bay, Florida; Salt Lake City, Utah; Ocala, Florida; and Ogden, UT are at very high risk for price declines. Meanwhile, Rhode Island, New Jersey, and Connecticut had the highest year-over-year increases, growing 13.2%, 11.6%, and 11% respectively. That's The Sip. See you next time.
MBS:
Okay, it's really remarkable about, as I mentioned, depth and breadth of data, and just the countless different scenarios that can evolve within our industry. I'm sure there's surprises that have come up. Is there any insights that have come up that have been surprises of things that we weren't necessarily expecting for different industries, or anything that surprised us?
JR:
Yeah, plenty. It's amazing, some of the work that the Office of the Chief Economist does, led by Selma Hepp in our company. Archana Pradhan has released a lot of research into migration patterns, the riskiest areas in the United States, in terms of climate change, and so forth. Just some interesting data points out of that research.
When you look at migration patterns, there's an increase of migration out of some of the most populous areas within the United States.
MBS:
Yeah.
JR:
It's risen from about 19% to 23%. More people are moving out of state.
MBS:
Yeah.
JR:
That still means 77% are still within state.
MBS:
Yeah.
JR:
It's interesting, when you look at areas like LA County, San Jose, San Francisco, a lot of them are moving to Riverside and Stockton. Affordability.
MBS:
Yeah, big thing.
JR:
Less-risky areas due to climate. You see similar patterns also in Florida. Miami-Dade is just a paradox. It's the riskiest county, out of all 2,200, due to climate change.
MBS:
Yeah.
JR:
It is the highest-appreciating, in terms of HPI or home price index. Selma's last report, I think it went up 10.7% in December.
MBS:
That's crazy.
JR:
It's got the highest number of investors, in terms of that gone from 19% to 23% pre, post pandemic.
MBS:
Yeah.
JR:
Yet, the number of applications of people who are leaving Miami into areas like Tampa, is on the increase. I think there's signals there-
MBS:
Yeah.
JR:
That things are beginning to shift in Florida. It was obviously Miami-Dade, in terms of the number of hurricanes and the damage it can cause, it as a very high risk.
MBS:
Yeah.
JR:
What Archana does is take very complex issues and breaks it down, so that the average layman like me can understand it. Just amazing work.
MBS:
We love talking to Selma Hepp, our Chief Economist, and the people in that office as well, too. It's just incredible data that they're doing so I appreciate that.
Okay, something I definitely want to talk about is some people might think of all this highly analytical data, that it's people sitting behind a computer and that's the only way you can access this. Everybody talks about this, whenever we have ... Earlier this year, we had our insurance solutions conference INTRCONNECT, and we talked about that on this podcast. Everyone was talking about John Rogers and his big screen. We just say, "That's John's carry-on, he takes it with him everywhere we go." But we have this massive, what we call our Discovery Center. Discovery Center, we have a physical one, but then John and his traveling Discovery Center. Can you just talk a little bit about why we took this approach to make this something that was so accessible and so visual? Because it's a showstopper. Whenever anybody sees John and his giant screen, to be able to see the power of this data right before their eyes.
JR:
e've actually done [inaudible:MBS:
Yeah.
JR:
Climate being an obvious example.
MBS:
Yeah.
JR:
Most people love to visualize because it tells a story. It's a great way to educate, understand what's happening on your book of business.
MBS:
Yeah.
JR:
Then you can go and automate it within your claims platform, your loan origination system.
MBS:
Yeah.
JR:
It's a really good way to visualize, explore, and discover new solutions. As you said, if I just showed you a spreadsheet of data-
MBS:
No one's going to care.
JR:
Maybe it would only resonate with a certain population, which is probably actually including myself, but that's an aside. But the visualization just helps educate, allow people to understand, and then think about how we can either protect home ownership. How do we take time, cost, and effort out of the loan origination process? It really helps.
MBS:
It's captivating.
JR:
I'm glad you liked it. I'm glad you like it.
MBS:
Oh, we love it. We love it. It's funny because my family, we happened to run into John when we were at a CoreLogic event. My husband still talks about the Discovery Center, and John and his giant screen, being able to visualize this data. It really is captivating from anybody, whether you're a data nerd or not. It's really hard to not be captivated by what you're seeing come out of the Discovery Center. Yeah, this is a plug. If you ever get an opportunity to go to any of CoreLogic's events, John and his giant screen will be there.
ES:
Before we end this episode to talk about how interest rates have impacted migration patterns, let's take a break and talk about what's happening in the world of natural disasters. CoreLogic's Hazard HQ Command Central reports on natural catastrophes and extreme weather events across the world. A link to their coverage is in the show notes.
February brought atmospheric rivers to inundate Southern California for the second winter in a row. Risk of flash flooding was widespread, with CoreLogic estimating that nearly 543,000 single- and multifamily homes with a combined reconstruction cost value of more than $258 billion are at risk of flash flood damage. Officials declared a state of emergency in eight California counties, with evacuations in some areas.
acreage of all Texas fires in:MBS:
To finish up today, we have to talk about gen AI, because that generative AI is the talk of the world right now.
JR:
Yeah.
MBS:
We've done a little bit of this on a previous podcast, earlier this year. We plan to do a specific podcast on gen AI coming up in a little bit as well, too. I just want to talk about it, in terms of data and data concerns in particular. Everybody talks about garbage in, garbage out.
When we're thinking of it in the context of gen AI, how can we ensure we have good inputs, how can we be sure that we have good data? How can ensure that it's being helpful and not hurting things?
JR:
data sources, from [inaudible:At CoreLogic, we're using gen AI, think about automating listings for a real estate agent. I can ask any question of CoreLogic's data for a portfolio manager to assess risk on my book of business.
MBS:
Yeah.
JR:
The number of use cases and the applicability of it, I think will completely digitize the real estate industry. Which we talked about that word, that phrase digitizing the real estate industry for probably decades, but probably really haven't quite made it.
MBS:
Yeah.
JR:
I think this is giving us the impetus to get there.
MBS:
Well, I can't wait to see where the world is going to go, where CoreLogic is going to go. This particular topic of gen AI, spoiler alert/stay tuned, Amy Gromowski is going to join us in a couple of episodes to talk about gen AI, so really excited to dive into that a little bit deeper. Especially for somebody who innovation is their life, John, it's just such a really interesting time to be alive.
JR:
I'm a fortunate person to run R&D for CoreLogic, so I'm a very lucky man.
MBS:
Well, we're very lucky to have you.
JR:
All good, all good.
MBS:
All right. Well, thanks so much for joining, John. I feel like you and I could chat for hours about this, but it's been great to have you back on the podcast. Thanks for joining us on Core Conversations: A CoreLogic Podcast.
JR:
Thank you as always, Maiclaire. Thank you so much.
MBS:
All right. Thank you for listening. I hope you've enjoyed our latest episode. Please remember to leave us a review, and let us know your thoughts. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts to be notified when new episodes are released. Thanks to the team for helping bring this podcast to life, producer Jessi Devenyns; editor and sound engineer, Romie Aromin; our effects' guru, Erika Stanley; and social media duo Sarah Buck and Makaila Brooks. Tune in next time for another Core Conversation.
ES:
Are you still there? Well, thanks for sticking around. Are you curious to know a little bit more about our guest today? Well, John Rogers is the Chief Innovation Officer for CoreLogic and is responsible for the company's R&D. From driving new solutions that help businesses understand the climate change impacts on the real estate economy to groundbreaking models that identify suitable land for affordable housing development, the R&D group tackles major housing issues, and works with clients to drive growth and mitigate risk on their book of business.
