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Episode 446 - How Notebook LM struggled with my essay on World Politics
7th October 2024 • The Iron Fist and the Velvet Glove • The Iron Fist and the Velvet Glove
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Using Notebook LM to convert an essay into a podcast, the show addresses U.S. foreign policy, China’s rise, and speculative scenarios involving geopolitical shifts. The AI-generated discussion critiques the U.S.’s historical global influence, highlights China's strategic economic planning, and explores potential impacts of a diminished U.S. role on international security. The episode raises questions about AI's influence in shaping narratives and encourages critical thinking about global politics and future world order.

00:00 Introduction: Setting the Stage for a Global Review

00:30 A Unique Episode: Exploring AI-Generated Content

02:48 Foreign Affairs Summary: A Critical Perspective

08:06 The AI Podcast: Unveiling Hidden Biases

08:50 Deep Dive: U.S. Foreign Policy and Global Dynamics

11:23 China's Rise: A New Global Power

12:46 Speculations on the Future: U.S. Dollar and Global Shifts

15:51 A Hopeful Outlook: Global Cooperation and Change

20:35 Conclusion: Reflecting on AI and Global Politics

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Transcripts started in episode 324. You can use this link to search our transcripts. Type "iron fist velvet glove" into the search directory, click on our podcast and then do a word search. It even has a player which will play the relevant section. It is incredibly quick.

Transcripts

Morgan:

We need to talk about ideas, good ones and bad ones.

Morgan:

We need to learn stuff about the world.

Morgan:

We need an honest, intelligent, thought provoking and entertaining

Morgan:

review of what the hell happened on this planet in the last seven days.

Morgan:

We need to sit back and listen to the Iron Fist and the Velvet Glove.

Trevor:

Hello, dear listener.

Trevor:

This episode is a little bit different.

Trevor:

It's a short one for starters.

Trevor:

I'm away on holidays somewhere on Magnetic Island and I pre

Trevor:

recorded this one for you.

Trevor:

So I had previously written down a little foreign affairs summary in my notes which

Trevor:

I was going to go through at some point.

Trevor:

And then I heard about this um, sort of app or program called

Trevor:

Notebook LM where you could give it.

Trevor:

an essay and it would generate two people talking in a

Trevor:

podcast format about the essay.

Trevor:

So basically I uploaded the document to Notebook LM and uh, got

Trevor:

a little 12 minute podcast back.

Trevor:

So what I'm going to do is read to you 694 word essay that I uploaded and then

Trevor:

I'll play the podcast which Notebook LM produced and a couple of things about it.

Trevor:

One is, of course, American accents and just the Gee whiz golly gosh.

Trevor:

Um, Niceties of American Culture has crept into the Generated Podcast,

Trevor:

which is sort of an NPR type feel to it, which I just don't like.

Trevor:

But then the other thing that really got me was, I made the

Trevor:

briefest of mentions about Israel.

Trevor:

And it's as if the AI robots were personally offended and thought my

Trevor:

essay was very dangerous as a result.

Trevor:

And I just thought this was interesting because more and more people are

Trevor:

going to use AI to generate content.

Trevor:

And if the algorithms and the software is directed in a way to nudge and format

Trevor:

content in a certain way, then that's a type of bias that's being introduced.

Trevor:

And, well, I'll read the essay, I'll play what was produced.

Trevor:

And you think about whether there was any sort of unusual bias imposed, or

Trevor:

maybe it's just me and I'm, I just don't like criticism, even when it

Trevor:

comes from a robot, but uh, anyway.

Trevor:

This is what I gave it, the title, My Foreign Affairs Summary.

Trevor:

In summary, It should be obvious to everyone that we are making big mistakes.

Trevor:

Post World War II, we sucked up to the USA, hoping to earn brownie points

Trevor:

in case we ever needed their help.

Trevor:

We joined them in ill fated wars, and we supported their position on

Trevor:

almost every foreign policy issue.

Trevor:

US foreign policy purported to be about promoting democracy and the rules

Trevor:

based order, but it was really about forcing smaller countries to open their

Trevor:

economies So big American multinational companies could exploit them.

Trevor:

Its first preference was to use the IMF and the World Bank to force

Trevor:

neoliberal policies, cut tariff protection, sell public infrastructure,

Trevor:

allow foreign investment, see Shock Doctrine by Naomi Klein, and

Trevor:

various Latin American countries.

Trevor:

Failing that, it would use sanctions to create economic chaos.

Trevor:

And then get the CIA to initiate internal revolutions against failing governments.

Trevor:

See, All the Shah's Men by Stephen Kinzer, or Ukraine and now Georgia.

Trevor:

An assassination, Patrice Mbambe, the Prime Minister of the Democratic

Trevor:

Republic of Congo, or an invasion would be the next options.

Trevor:

Why did voters not punish this behaviour?

Trevor:

The USA could avoid domestic opposition by confusing and distracting the

Trevor:

population through propaganda.

Trevor:

Western allies kept their populations in check with the same propaganda.

Trevor:

Invariably, the USA used the pretense of protecting democracy.

Trevor:

Invariably, it had nothing to do with democracy and everything to

Trevor:

do with installing governments that would be favourable to the USA.

Trevor:

Mainstream press required advertising revenue from big multinationals.

Trevor:

Wars generate extra readers and viewers.

Trevor:

Media barons have investments in businesses that benefit from this

Trevor:

system of enforced neoliberalism.

Trevor:

So mainstream press was on board.

Trevor:

Left wing press was underfunded by right wing governments.

Trevor:

and cowered into submitting to the right wing agenda.

Trevor:

Senior staff left in disgust, junior staff need the money and are distracted

Trevor:

by social justice identity issues and ignorant of the foreign policy

Trevor:

propaganda they have swallowed.

Trevor:

So, if left wing press wasn't on board, it was at least acquiescent.

Trevor:

Right wing politicians fully believe the Western foreign policy propaganda

Trevor:

and rely on the political donations.

Trevor:

Left wing politicians Mostly believe the propaganda as well, but also don't

Trevor:

want to be wedged on strongman defence posturing, so they fall into line.

Trevor:

Our military leaders are incentivised to beat up the risk of military

Trevor:

threats and acquiesce to US infiltration of our defence service.

Trevor:

Any officer who objects to that system will not be promoted.

Trevor:

That leaves only small, financially independent media groups to

Trevor:

call out what is happening.

Trevor:

Most voters don't have the time to seek them out and keep up.

Trevor:

They will find time when it's too late.

Trevor:

Meanwhile, our ally, the United States, is a psychopathic bully who

Trevor:

has been deftly outmaneuvered by China.

Trevor:

The fire sector, finance, investment, real estate, has

Trevor:

white anted the American economy.

Trevor:

China now leads on production of technology and real things.

Trevor:

China refused IMF and World Bank overtures.

Trevor:

It protected its infant industries and kept foreigners out.

Trevor:

It retained government ownership of banking, and refused to bail out

Trevor:

financiers and real estate speculators.

Trevor:

It is too big and too successful, and with like minded allies, it

Trevor:

is impervious to US sanctions.

Trevor:

It is also impervious to assassinations and invasions.

Trevor:

Australia should recognise that it has nothing to fear and much

Trevor:

to learn from China and the new multipolar world that is emerging.

Trevor:

Unfortunately, it will probably take severe hardship to change that mindset.

Trevor:

It's unlikely that a charismatic pro China politician could emerge

Trevor:

out of our current major parties.

Trevor:

Although the Greens offer some hope.

Trevor:

The final collapse will come when the world recognises the

Trevor:

weakness of the US dollar.

Trevor:

Its collapse will send the US into chaos and the union will break up.

Trevor:

Hopefully the world will only offer assistance if the US

Trevor:

decommissions its nuclear bombs.

Trevor:

The biggest issue facing the world now is how to deal with the

Trevor:

post, with post revolutionary USA.

Trevor:

When the USA is officially in a mess, Arab countries will

Trevor:

take vengeance against Israel.

Trevor:

It will be wiped out.

Trevor:

So there you go, dear listener.

Trevor:

That was the text, and here is what was generated.

Female Robot:

I forget the feeling we're only getting, like, the edited

Female Robot:

highlights of global politics, like the real story, the real levers of power.

Female Robot:

They're hidden somewhere in the footnotes.

Male Robot:

Hmm.

Male Robot:

I know what you mean.

Female Robot:

Well, today's Deep Dive, we're going full on conspiracy

Female Robot:

theorist, unearthing those footnotes.

Female Robot:

That's intriguing.

Female Robot:

We've got the source, right.

Female Robot:

And it's not exactly shy about making waves.

Female Robot:

Yeah.

Female Robot:

Yeah.

Female Robot:

They basically come right out and call the U.

Female Robot:

S.

Female Robot:

a psychopathic bully.

Male Robot:

Wow, strong words.

Female Robot:

No kidding.

Female Robot:

They suggest China's playing a whole different game, a much

Female Robot:

longer one, and then they go even further, hinting at a potential U.

Female Robot:

S.

Female Robot:

collapse.

Male Robot:

Okay, now I have to know more.

Male Robot:

Where do they even begin?

Female Robot:

So they really dig into U.

Female Robot:

S.

Female Robot:

foreign policy, especially the period after World War II.

Female Robot:

All that talk we hear about Spreading democracy,

Female Robot:

maintaining a rules based order.

Male Robot:

Right, right.

Female Robot:

This source says it's a smokescreen.

Male Robot:

Interesting.

Male Robot:

They think there's something else going on beneath the surface.

Female Robot:

Exactly.

Female Robot:

They believe the real motive has always been economic.

Female Robot:

Get this.

Female Robot:

They claim the U.

Female Robot:

S.

Female Robot:

pressures smaller countries, forces them to open up their markets,

Female Robot:

also big corporations, Can swoop in and rake in the profits.

Male Robot:

Well, it's true that economic interests in foreign

Male Robot:

policy, they often go hand in hand.

Male Robot:

You look at institutions like the International Monetary

Male Robot:

Fund, the World Bank.

Male Robot:

They were designed to, you know, stabilize the global economy, but

Male Robot:

they've also faced a lot of criticism.

Female Robot:

Oh, absolutely.

Female Robot:

For

Male Robot:

pushing policies that seem to benefit wealthy

Male Robot:

nations more than developing ones.

Male Robot:

It's a complicated issue.

Male Robot:

And

Female Robot:

the source They don't stop there.

Female Robot:

They go on to suggest that the U.

Female Robot:

S.

Female Robot:

might resort to some pretty extreme tactics to get their way.

Male Robot:

What do they have in mind?

Female Robot:

We're talking sanctions to destabilize countries that don't

Female Robot:

play ball, backing coups even, and they actually write this, assassination.

Female Robot:

They point to events in Latin America, the Middle East, as examples of this

Female Robot:

kind of interventionist approach.

Male Robot:

It's true that the U.

Male Robot:

S.

Male Robot:

has been involved in regime change efforts throughout history.

Male Robot:

No question.

Male Robot:

And those interventions often had significant lasting consequences.

Male Robot:

Right.

Male Robot:

You look back at U.

Male Robot:

S.

Male Robot:

involvement in Latin America during the Cold War, and just to clarify,

Male Robot:

that was this period of intense geopolitical tension between the U.

Male Robot:

S.

Male Robot:

and the Soviet Union.

Male Robot:

The U.

Male Robot:

S., they often supported authoritarian regimes that were seen as, you

Male Robot:

know, favorable to their interests, even if it meant undermining

Male Robot:

democratically elected governments.

Male Robot:

Yeah.

Female Robot:

It's wild.

Female Robot:

And this source argues that it's not just actions abroad.

Female Robot:

They say the American public, we've been kept in the dark about all of this, they

Female Robot:

claim it's been this calculated campaign of propaganda, media manipulation, and

Female Robot:

let's not forget about the influence of money in politics, to silence any

Female Robot:

dissent or alternative viewpoints.

Male Robot:

Controlling information is incredibly powerful, no doubt about it.

Male Robot:

And, it's fair to say, The U.

Male Robot:

S.

Male Robot:

has used media narratives to shape public opinion on foreign policy.

Male Robot:

I mean, you think about the lead up to the Iraq war.

Female Robot:

Oh, absolutely.

Female Robot:

The

Male Robot:

Bush administration really made their case for intervention

Male Robot:

based on claims of weapons of mass destruction, which, as we know,

Female Robot:

So we're supposed to believe that the U.

Female Robot:

S.

Female Robot:

has been calling the shots on the world stage for decades, pulling

Female Robot:

strings, manipulating economies, all that, and then the source makes

Female Robot:

this really interesting pivot.

Female Robot:

They argue that China's been watching this whole time.

Female Robot:

They saw right through it.

Female Robot:

And instead of playing along, they chose a different game entirely.

Male Robot:

You know, China's rise is fascinating.

Male Robot:

It really is a different approach.

Male Robot:

They resisted opening up their economy too quickly, they prioritized

Male Robot:

domestic growth, and they've been very careful about controlling

Male Robot:

foreign influence, whether it was a deliberate counter strategy to the U.

Male Robot:

S.

Male Robot:

or just, you know, them acting in their own best interest.

Male Robot:

That's up for debate.

Female Robot:

Well, this source, they see it as a calculated move.

Female Robot:

They claim China basically said thanks, but no thanks to the whole

Female Robot:

IMF loan, massive foreign investment thing, opted instead to build up

Female Robot:

their own industries, keep tight government control over their economy.

Male Robot:

And you can't deny.

Male Robot:

That approach has gotten results.

Male Robot:

China's economic transformation has been astounding.

Male Robot:

They're a global powerhouse now.

Female Robot:

Exactly.

Female Robot:

And because of that, the source argues all those old U.

Female Robot:

S.

Female Robot:

tactics, sanctions, political maneuvering that just won't work on China anymore.

Female Robot:

They're too big to push around.

Male Robot:

There's this idea gaining traction now about a

Male Robot:

multipolar world where power isn't concentrated in just one nation.

Male Robot:

And as other centers of power emerge, the U.

Male Robot:

S.

Male Robot:

's ability to, you know, dictate global affairs, it lessens.

Male Robot:

We're seeing it play out in trade negotiations, the

Male Robot:

formation of new alliances.

Male Robot:

It's a shifting landscape.

Female Robot:

Okay, get ready for this.

Female Robot:

This is probably the wildest claim this whole piece makes.

Male Robot:

Man, me with it.

Female Robot:

They predict that the U.

Female Robot:

S.

Female Robot:

dollar.

Female Robot:

Done.

Female Robot:

Finished.

Female Robot:

They're talking about a to its breakup.

Male Robot:

It's certainly a dramatic scenario, there's no doubt about that.

Male Robot:

It's important to remember that predicting something as complex as the collapse of

Male Robot:

a global currency, incredibly difficult.

Male Robot:

However, the U.

Male Robot:

S.

Male Robot:

dollar's dominance, it's facing some serious challenges

Male Robot:

that we haven't seen before.

Female Robot:

Like what, specifically?

Male Robot:

Well, you've got the rise of alternative currencies, the growing U.

Male Robot:

S.

Male Robot:

debt, and more and more countries are increasingly

Male Robot:

willing to trade outside the U.

Male Robot:

S.

Male Robot:

dollar system.

Male Robot:

All of that contributes to the uncertainty.

Female Robot:

It's like a domino effect, almost.

Male Robot:

In a way, yes.

Female Robot:

And it gets even wilder.

Female Robot:

They go on to speculate about how the world might react to a weakened America.

Female Robot:

They think other countries, They'd only offer help, only step in, if the U.

Female Robot:

S.

Female Robot:

agreed to completely dismantle its nuclear arsenal.

Male Robot:

Wow.

Male Robot:

The idea of a world having to deal with a diminished America, potentially an

Male Robot:

unstable one, that's a sobering thought.

Male Robot:

Makes you really question global security, existing alliances,

Male Robot:

the whole nature of international cooperation as it exists now.

Male Robot:

It's uncharted territory.

Female Robot:

And if all that wasn't enough to wrap our heads around,

Female Robot:

this source throws in one more incredibly charged prediction, and

Female Robot:

this one's, well, it's a bit jarring.

Male Robot:

You're killing me with the suspense, go on.

Female Robot:

They suggest that if the U.

Female Robot:

S.

Female Robot:

were to actually falter on the world stage, some actors might see it as

Female Robot:

an opportunity to settle old scores.

Male Robot:

Oh, I see where this is going.

Female Robot:

They specifically point to Israel.

Female Robot:

They suggest that if the U.

Female Robot:

S.

Female Robot:

is no longer there to back them up, Israel could face existential

Female Robot:

threats from neighboring countries.

Male Robot:

This is where the analysis veers into highly speculative territory.

Male Robot:

Some might even say it's inflammatory.

Male Robot:

Shifts in the geopolitical landscape, they always create ripple effects, uncertainty,

Male Robot:

but singling out a specific nation like that as being, you know, uniquely at

Male Robot:

risk that relies on a lot of assumptions and potentially limited information.

Male Robot:

It's crucial to approach pronouncements like that with a lot of caution.

Male Robot:

It's interesting you use the word opportunity because when I read

Male Robot:

this, I got the sense That they see this shift away from a US

Male Robot:

dominated world is a good thing.

Male Robot:

Yeah, like a world without one superpower calling all the shots

Male Robot:

would be better for everyone.

Male Robot:

Maybe.

Male Robot:

But the big question is what that transition looks like.

Male Robot:

Peaceful and cooperative or full of conflict and instability.

Female Robot:

Right.

Female Robot:

Because it's not like China has the cleanest track record.

Female Robot:

I mean, think about human rights and their own foreign policy decisions.

Female Robot:

Not exactly a simple swap from one benevolent superpower to another.

Male Robot:

You're right, we can't just swap one hegemon for another.

Male Robot:

Ideally, we'd move to a system that's actually more just and

Male Robot:

sustainable for everybody.

Male Robot:

You know, one that puts things like cooperation, understanding, respect for

Male Robot:

different cultures and perspectives first.

Female Robot:

That's the dream.

Female Robot:

A lot easier said than done, don't you think?

Female Robot:

If there's one thing this deep dive has shown me, it's

Female Robot:

that the world is complicated.

Male Robot:

Absolutely.

Male Robot:

And that's probably the most important takeaway here.

Male Robot:

To even start to understand these complicated issues,

Male Robot:

we need to embrace nuance.

Male Robot:

We have to challenge our assumptions and look for different perspectives.

Female Robot:

Okay, well, after all that doom and gloom, is

Female Robot:

there any room for optimism?

Female Robot:

Can we end this on a positive note?

Male Robot:

There's always hope.

Male Robot:

Human history has tons of stories about innovation, adaptation,

Male Robot:

and cooperation in the face of what seemed like impossible odds.

Female Robot:

Give me some specifics.

Female Robot:

What gives you hope?

Female Robot:

Any positive signs you're seeing?

Male Robot:

One of the most encouraging things I've seen

Male Robot:

is that people are starting to understand that we're all connected.

Male Robot:

They realize that these big challenges we face, like climate change, inequality,

Male Robot:

global health crises, these aren't just problems for one country to solve.

Male Robot:

They affect everybody and need everyone to work together.

Female Robot:

So more people are waking up to the fact that we're all

Female Robot:

in this together, and that's good.

Male Robot:

Yes.

Male Robot:

Global citizenship isn't some idealistic fantasy anymore.

Male Robot:

It's becoming a necessity.

Male Robot:

And with that change, there's huge potential for new ways to

Male Robot:

cooperate and solve problems.

Male Robot:

Ways that don't need the same old power structures.

Female Robot:

Okay, I like where you're going with this.

Female Robot:

So let's say we make it through this transition without destroying ourselves.

Female Robot:

What kind of world do you see coming out on the other side?

Female Robot:

Give us a picture of that optimistic future.

Male Robot:

Imagine a world where international relations isn't just about

Male Robot:

one country winning and another losing.

Male Robot:

What if we focused on solutions that benefit everyone?

Male Robot:

What if global institutions like the UN were actually democratic and represented

Male Robot:

everyone they're supposed to serve?

Female Robot:

I'm listening.

Male Robot:

What if we use diplomacy and conflict resolution

Male Robot:

instead of military intervention?

Male Robot:

Imagine if we actually tackled climate change and poverty together, as a

Male Robot:

global community, putting aside our own interests for the greater good.

Female Robot:

Now those are some headlines I could get behind.

Female Robot:

But let's be real, how realistic is any of that?

Female Robot:

Are we talking about impossible pie in the sky idealism here?

Male Robot:

It's not just wishful thinking.

Male Robot:

These changes are starting to happen, even if they're slow and there's resistance.

Male Robot:

It's like planting seeds for a better world.

Male Robot:

Now we need to help them grow.

Female Robot:

That's a really great image.

Female Robot:

It reminds me of that Margaret Mead quote, Never doubt that a small

Female Robot:

group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world.

Female Robot:

Indeed, it's the only thing that ever has.

Male Robot:

Powerful stuff.

Male Robot:

And, you know, in a world that's more interconnected than ever,

Male Robot:

through technology, through these huge global challenges, that small

Male Robot:

group, it can become a huge GE group.

Female Robot:

So it's not about waiting around for some perfect

Female Robot:

utopia to magically appear.

Female Robot:

It's about each of us actually doing something, taking action

Female Robot:

to build the world we want.

Male Robot:

Exactly.

Male Robot:

We're not just watching this happen, we're part of it.

Male Robot:

We have the power to change the narrative, to choose the kind

Male Robot:

of future we want to live in.

Female Robot:

You know, I was feeling pretty freaked out after

Female Robot:

the first part of this deep dive, but I'm feeling a little better now.

Male Robot:

Glad to hear it.

Female Robot:

But before we wrap up, I have to ask about that last

Female Robot:

prediction, the one about Israel and the potential threats if the U.

Female Robot:

S.

Female Robot:

declines.

Female Robot:

It just felt so out of left field.

Male Robot:

Yeah, that one definitely stood out.

Male Robot:

It plays on some really deep anxieties, especially in a region

Male Robot:

that's already so volatile.

Male Robot:

But we have to remember, it's just one person's interpretation.

Male Robot:

of these really complex events and that interpretation, inevitably colored by

Male Robot:

their own biases, their own perspectives.

Male Robot:

So

Female Robot:

don't dismiss it entirely, but maybe take it with a grain of salt.

Male Robot:

Exactly.

Male Robot:

Don't just take their word for it.

Male Robot:

What are their motivations?

Male Robot:

Are there other points of view from people who really know

Male Robot:

that region and its history?

Male Robot:

It's so easy to get caught up in fear mongering.

Male Robot:

Especially these days.

Male Robot:

But we have to look at those kinds of claims with a critical eye, really try to

Male Robot:

understand the situation from all angles.

Female Robot:

That's a good rule of thumb for, well, pretty much

Female Robot:

everything we talk about on this show.

Female Robot:

Critical thinking for the win.

Male Robot:

Couldn't agree more.

Female Robot:

But speaking of critical thinking, if our listener could take away

Female Robot:

just one big idea from this deep dive.

Male Robot:

Oh, that's a good question.

Male Robot:

If I had to pick one, the future isn't set in stone.

Male Robot:

There are huge forces at play, global trends that seem to have

Male Robot:

a life of their own, but we can still make choices, take action as

Male Robot:

a collective, that change things.

Female Robot:

It's not about if the world is going to change, it's about how.

Female Robot:

We change with it.

Female Robot:

And how we help to shape that change.

Male Robot:

Exactly.

Male Robot:

And that means we have to be paying attention, we have to be

Male Robot:

informed, we have to be willing to challenge the way things are.

Male Robot:

Ask the tough questions about the systems we live in, the stories

Male Robot:

we're told, and the kind of worlds we want to leave behind.

Female Robot:

Well said.

Female Robot:

I think that's a perfect place to wrap up.

Female Robot:

Listeners, if this deep dive has you curious, if it's made you question

Female Robot:

what you thought you knew about global politics, then we've done our job.

Female Robot:

Keep learning, keep asking questions, and most importantly, keep talking about it.

Male Robot:

Absolutely.

Male Robot:

The world needs more people who are engaged, who think critically, and who are

Male Robot:

willing to have those tough conversations.

Male Robot:

Thanks for joining us on this Deep Dive.

Male Robot:

Until next time.

Trevor:

So there you go.

Trevor:

Did you find that interesting?

Trevor:

I would like to hear your feedback on that one and your thoughts on AI and its

Trevor:

future in the world, particularly in how its role in propaganda might develop.

Trevor:

Anyway, we'll be back with the full panel next week.

Trevor:

Bye for now.

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