Extra Time — Rapid-fire coverage for the busy mid-week schedule.
In This Episode:
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4-1 on their debut.
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:A club playing its first ever European
night in 119 years of existence.
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:And the scoreboard says they hammered us.
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:But the truth's a little bit
more complicated than 4-1.
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:And I'm going to show you
exactly why in a minute.
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:This is a quick fire.
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:So we're in, we're honest, and we're out.
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:Como on Thursday, Hamburg
at the Arena on Sunday.
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:And after two losses on
the spin, everything about
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:this club just got heavier.
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:Let's go.
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:Welcome to RBL Talk, the
independent RB Leipzig podcast.
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:Tactics, Terrace, Truth.
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:I'm Justin Crozer, and
this is a quick fire.
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:The fast midweek turnaround.
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:No guest, no full mailbag, just a
rapid reaction while it's still raw.
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:Here's the run of the play.
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:First, back to Italy, the Como game.
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:What actually happened, and the player
watch verdict on the duel we set Monday.
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:Then straight into
Sunday, Hamburg at home.
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:A new player watch duel
and where I land on a score
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:Right, Como 4-1.
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:And I wanna be straight with you
because the scoreline and the
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:story aren't quite the same thing.
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:Here's the bit that'll surprise you.
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:On the surface, this was even.
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:Possession 50/50.
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:Shots 14 apiece.
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:We actually had more touches in their
final third than they had in ours.
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:On paper, a level game
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:So how does a level game finish 4-1?
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:Two words, chance quality.
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:Their expected goals on the night, 2.3.
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:Ours, 1.4.
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:Big chances, seven to them, two to us.
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:They attacked the middle of the goal.
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:We took pot shots from the edges.
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:Same amount of ball.
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:They made it count, and we didn't.
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:That's the whole night in one line.
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:Let me give you the three moments.
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:15 minutes, Duvicus
slides one across the box.
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:We only half clear it, and Batrunia
is just there to poke it in.
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:One-nil.
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:Then 38, Batrunia again, this time
the pass, releasing Duvicus, who
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:holds off Lecaba and finishes low.
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:Two-nil at the break.
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:And here's the, the thing.
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:We still felt it.
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:We were in it.
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:We weren't getting battered.
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:And then the game died in a
single minute of the second half.
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:54, Nico Paz slips Dio in behind.
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:He drills it far corner, three-nil.
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:Game gone.
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:We did nick one straight back.
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:Maximovic, 58, an absolute rocket into
the top corner, teed up by Nkunku.
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:But Pirone rubbed in right
at the death, four-one.
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:Now, why did it happen?
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:I'll keep this quick because the full
tactical autopsies are for the main show.
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:But two things.
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:One, their fullbacks flew forward,
and we never handled the width.
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:Dio alone won 10 duels and carried
the ball 300 meters, and Baku
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:made the error that led to a goal.
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:Two, their holding midfielder, Miller,
passed at 95% in our half, untouched.
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:When the other team's deepest player
is strolling around in your half
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:like that, your press has failed.
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:That's the headline.
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:What does that actually mean?
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:It's one game out of eight in
the league phase, so it is not
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:fatal, but it's a rotten start.
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:Second season running, we've
lost our Champions League opener,
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:and coming right off the word of
defeat, that's back-to-back losses
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:and seven conceded in two games.
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:The defense needs a long,
hard look in the mirror.
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:Now player watch.
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:Monday we set the duel.
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:Nico Paz against whoever we put in goal.
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:And in the end,
Vandervoort kept his place.
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:No birthday start for
Niland, no experienced head
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:for the big European night.
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:The young Belgian got the nod.
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:So how did it go?
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:Paz won it comprehensively.
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:Two assists, and both
of them beat our keeper.
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:He teed up Dial for the third
and Perrone for the fourth.
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:A 7.9
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:rating, and get this, he
was also Como's top tackler.
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:He ran the game at both ends.
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:That's the complete midfield
performance, and it's exactly why
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:he's the one everyone's talking about.
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:And Vandervort?
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:A 5.4,
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:and the number that
jumps out is minus 1.71
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:goals prevented.
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:So more than a goal and a half worse
than your average keeper would have done.
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:But I'll be fair to him.
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:The back four handed
Como seven clear chances.
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:Perrone's finish alone was worth 0.93
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:expected goals.
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:That's as good as a certain goal.
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:No keeper alive is saving that lot.
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:So the duel goes to Paz, and
clearly he beat our last line twice.
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:But don't you dare hang four
goals on the goalkeeper.
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:Round one, Como.
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:Before we cross to the weekend, one
flicker of light in all that, Maksimovic.
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:Nineteen years old, a seven point eight,
and that goal of his was the only time all
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:night we made their keeper properly sweat.
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:The boy is a player.
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:Nusa fought too.
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:Eight dribbles, ran himself into the
ground trying to drag us up the pitch.
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:And Nkunku, he got the assist.
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:Three key passes.
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:The link play is clearly back, but
still no goal since his return.
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:That drought's turning
into a story all on its own
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:One to keep an eye on.
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:So that's Italy.
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:Painful, but not the end of the world.
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:Because three days later, we go
again, and Hamburg at home is
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:exactly the response this squad needs
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:sunday, Red Bull Arena, half three
in the afternoon, Leipzig time.
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:Eleven Sunday night for those of us down
here in Australia in the central areas.
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:Hamburg come to town, and after Italy,
this is the definition of a must-win.
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:Let me paint you the opponent
because honestly, it's bleak.
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:Hamburg have made the worst start
in their history, two games,
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:zero points, and forget close.
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:They've been battered.
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:Nil-two at Dortmund, then
nil-five at home to Mainz.
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:Five at their own ground on match day two.
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:And here's the number that tells
you everything you need to know.
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:In two Bundesliga games this
season, Hamburg have scored nothing.
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:Zero goals, nought from seven inside
the box, nought from nine outside it.
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:They are not scoring full stop.
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:So on paper, this should be
routine, and history agrees.
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:But own this fixture all time
in the Bundesliga, it's six
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:wins, one draw, one defeat.
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:We've won the last two on the bounce.
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:But, and you knew there'd be a
but, here's the honest version.
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:Every one of those recent
wins came by a single goal.
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:Two-one, two-one, one-two.
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:Lately, we grind Hamburg.
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:We don't thrash them.
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:Now, stack on where we are
right now, seven conceded in two
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:games, a press that isn't biting.
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:So the question isn't
whether we're favorites.
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:Of course we are.
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:The question is, which version
of us actually shows up?
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:The old side that used to put this
lot away four-nil or another nervy
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:one-goal job that a shaky backline
make it harder than it should be.
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:Because here's the good
news, and it's real.
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:For all the defensive misery
going forward, we are flying
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:going into this weekend.
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:We've taken more shots than any team in
the division, and we've got the second
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:highest expected goals in the league.
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:The chances are there.
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:The service is elite.
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:There's just one man who hasn't
cashed in yet, Nkunku, still
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:without a goal since his return.
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:Six attempts and counting.
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:And I'll say it plainly, if there
is ever a game to end that drought,
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:it's this one, at home against the
leakiest defense in the country.
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:Over to you, Chris.
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:Now player watch.
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:New duel for the week, and I'm
doing this one a little differently.
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:For Leipzig, Orsano Drago.
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:For Hamburg, Fabio Vieira.
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:And I'm not framing this
as how do we shut him down?
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:Because these two are
cut from the same cloth.
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:They are both sparks, the kind of
player who makes something from nothing.
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:A bit of magic that swings
a game his team's way.
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:So this isn't a stopper duel.
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:It's dead simple.
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:Whoever conjures the moment tips it.
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:Take Vieira first.
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:Last season, he was
Hamburg's creative heartbeat.
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:Seven goals, five assists, a 7.2
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:rating.
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:That's a serious return from a number 10,
and it's exactly why he's the danger man.
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:But this season, he's barely featured.
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:One game, 45 minutes, and he got hooked at
halftime in that nil five against Mainz.
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:So he's elite and doubted
at the very same time.
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:A wounded artist trying
to remember who he is.
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:Give him a yard, especially at a set
piece, and Hamburg give away enough
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:free kicks that there'll be dead balls
flying about, which cuts both ways.
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:And he can punish us.
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:And Odrago, our 19-year-old on the way up.
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:And you got a glimpse in Italy, 30
minutes off the bench where he completed
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:and created duels, won recoveries,
an interception, a key pass, a shot,
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:combative and creative one package
against a Hamburg side that will
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:likely sit in and try to survive.
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:A spark like Asane is exactly
the tool to pick the lock.
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:Two creators, opposite
ends of their journeys.
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:Whoever finds the moment wins
the duel, and maybe the game.
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:We settle that one on Monday
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:And the score?
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:You know the rule around here.
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:I don't just lob out a
scoreline for the sake of it.
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:I want the numbers to earn it.
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:So here's the working.
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:We've created the fourth
biggest chances in the league.
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:They've conceded at three
and a half a game and haven't
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:kept a clean sheet all season.
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:That math says we score two, maybe three.
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:The only thing giving me
pause is our own defense.
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:Seven shipped in the last two,
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:And even a side this poor
will fashion the odd chance.
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:So I'm going three-one Leipzig.
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:We've got far too much firepower
for a team this toothless.
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:But until I actually see our
backline keep one out, I'm not
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:going to promise you a clean sheet.
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:Three-one, response delivered,
and hopefully Nkunku's
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:monkey finally off his back
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:two takeaways, quick as you like.
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:From Italy, it wasn't the
amount of ball, and it wasn't
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:the shot count, it was quality.
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:They made their big chances
count, and we didn't.
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:Sharpen the final ball and the
finishing, and our underlying
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:numbers say the goals are coming.
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:For Sunday, it's a must-win against
a side that cannot buy a goal.
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:The numbers scream home win.
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:The only real question is whether
we're finally clinical, and whether
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:our back line does the job for once.
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:Get that right, and this
is the reset we need.
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:Now, over to you.
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:This is only a quick-fire, so
the full Digital Terrace Mailbag
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:lands on Tuesday's main episode.
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:That's where I read your takes properly.
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:But I want your calls on Como or Hamburg.
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:How do you see the return
to the Champions League?
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:Your outlook for Sunday?
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:Score?
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:finally break his duck?
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:Get it to me three ways.
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:SpeakPipe, that's speakpipe.com/rbltalk.
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:You've got up to five minutes of
audio, and I'll play it on air.
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:Drop a comment straight on the episode
over on Spotify, or come and argue with
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:us in the Digital Terrace on Discord.
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:Links are all in the show notes.
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:And while you're down there,
if this show means something
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:to you, help us keep it going.
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:Subscribe, leave us a review.
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:It generally moves the needle.
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:We take no corporate money, no sponsors
pulling the strings, no agendas, no
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:gatekeepers, just pure Leipzig passion,
funded by the people who listen.
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:If you can chip in to help cover the
costs and keep it independent, the
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:link's in the show notes as well.
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:That's what keep this
feed free and honest.
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:Full mailbag and the
Hamburg verdict Tuesday.
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:Before then, let's go RBL.
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:Tactics Terrace Truth.
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:I've been Justin Crozer, and
until next time, bye-bye for now.