Rizwan Memon: 07:13

sure. So on Sunday, whatever that was the 13th or 14th, sorry, the 13th or 12th of May 24. Roaring kitty, you know, DFV, that internet personality, you know, the Wall Street bets Reddit type of person, obviously, an international phenomenon to an extent, he effectively posted on Twitter for the first time, and it wasn't anything specific or substantive, just a picture, or like a meme, like, you know, it's kind of a gaming meme where he's like, he's sitting on the chair, and then there's another, there's an arrow, and then now he's leaning forward, meaning he's in he's locked in. So that was it. And it's crazy, because Gamestop had already started moving up the week prior, but it's so wild, that you posted on Sunday, and then now we're three days in it, the stock has just gone absolutely bonkers, but you know, two 300% gain. And it's funny, because the time if we rewind to this, my biggest losing trade, so to speak, was around GameStop. And it's just so crazy that I'm having remember we booked enter, booked transient, we booked this call this interview weeks back weeks ago, right? Maybe even a month ago. And I'm literally just crazy, because just we're just dealing with this trade today. So it's kind of deja vu. It's a similar kind of trade, actually. Which blows my mind because I was thinking about this. And I'm like I have I have an interview meeting with Andrew, and look at what's transpiring. And I'm gonna be talking about literally, almost the exact scenario, but from three years ago, so to get into it, my biggest loss was back in 2021. So, you know, a little over three years ago, and as you everyone's should have expected it was on gamestop now, people will probably think well Gamestop like that thing went up. 500% like, you know, it was going crazy. And you know, all of retail and obviously even institutions piled in to take advantage. How do you lose money like you beg held? You know, you just bought it then just held through it? No, I took the smart money approach and I decided to effectively bet against the stock going above a certain ceiling. So I'm not going to get into the complexities for for your viewers and whoever and I'm sure you already they know but just for a broader audience understanding for the sake of time, I was essentially saying that the stock at that time pre split, get a stock price split for two under something over the past year, but I was saying, At that time, it's going to stay below $300 per share. So we had already run up to 300%, a Gamestop had already gone up. And I will remind people that this was and still is a pretty much you know, massively, I would say disgruntled business that is still, you know, not in any great shape or form even after past, you know, three years. So, anyways, the point is, I'm like, alright, this stock is like, it was literally on the verge of bankruptcy, massive cash flow issues. Anyway, like Andrew, you know, that you know, the details about dates from a valuation standpoint, this is your forte. So even first for someone like me, who's not a valuation masters, especially as but even I know a bit and I knew that, okay, this is unsustainable, like, you know, someone's gonna get hurt, somebody's gonna get damaged. So I'm going to come in, I'm going to say, look, I'm going to put a ceiling on this, I'm going to say, if I want the stock to stay below 300. Reasonable, it's already gone up to 300%. So from a probability standpoint, it's very, very rare. And, you know, utilizing standard deviation saying that, it's going to go up 300%, and another 150 100%. After that, remember, so I was like, alright, the numbers are on my side, the probabilities might have been like, 99, maybe 99.5% in my favor. But that's the black swan event. What happened was I loaded up so I shorted call options, naked call options. And I know people are gonna be like, Oh, you, you had it coming? No, the rationale was that look. Like I said, probabilities, I wasn't shorting it directly. I wasn't shorting the calls when it was like 50 bucks. And then I would just carry no, it had already gone up. And I'm like, Okay, this makes sense. So I loaded up a little bit, nothing substantive. Okay, I left enough room, I'm aware of the risk of, you know, theoretical unlimited risk of shorting the call options. Now, what happened was, I will never forget this. He was an after hours, and the stocks gone up 300% Already did go up to around $500 per share high. He went from 300 to 500, at about two days. And that day, it went to 500. And pre after hours was the day Elon Musk on Twitter, again, Twitter back then said game stock. Okay, when he tweeted that, in after hours, I still cannot fathom this kind of move of tweet. Again, remember, this is the first time anything like this has happened from a meme stock Wall Street bets, you know, pump, stick it to hedge funds. And this is that this is not, there's not precedent remember, even for someone like me, who at this time, you know, had been doing it for 14 years. And correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think there's ever been this kind of retail driven raid or are this massive coming together, the only thing I can think of in the real world with maybe Occupy Wall Street back in 2008 to that night, but that wasn't the real world. They just, you know, you know, We're protesting with pickets, nothing from