Latin America's Moment in Global Chaos

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:03

Hello listeners.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:04

Welcome to another episode of the Jacob Shapiro podcast.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:08

Uh huh.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:09

Like that deep sigh.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:10

It has been a busy week.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:12

I'm sure it's been a week for all of you as well.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:14

Uh, I'm happy to welcome Fado Robles onto the podcast.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:17

He is the program coordinator at the Wilson Center's Latin America Program, uh,

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:22

at the Wilson Center's Argentina Project.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:24

Also wears a number of other hats.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:25

Professor at, uh, uh, national Defense University in Argentina.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:29

He.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:29

He goes through all his credentials at the end of the episode.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:31

We've been trying to get together for weeks, months now, and our schedules

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:34

just kept misaligning, but he, we were finally able to get him on.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:37

Um, there's two things I wanna say before we get to the meat of the episode.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:40

The first is that I worry that the Israel, Iran War is crowding

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:45

out the fact that developments are happening everywhere around the world.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:48

Um, it's already hard to get information, but when you think about how everything

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:51

now is focused on the very, very important things happening in the Middle East,

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:54

the, the rest of the world still spins.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:00:57

So part of me thought, ah, we shouldn't do this podcast primarily on Latin America.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:00

We should be focusing on nothing but Israel Rome.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:02

But then I took a step back and said, actually, no, like it's really important

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:06

to keep your finger, um, on the pulse of what's going on in the rest of

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:10

the world, even as this craziness is happening in the Middle East.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:13

And then even so, I Kudo did an amazing job taking what's

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:17

happening in the Middle East and saying, no, it really does matter.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:20

To Latin America and to South America in general, and the decisions that President

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:24

Trump makes will affect everything from elections in South America to how South

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:28

American countries are gonna align.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:30

Maybe it affects the calculations of Nicholas Maduro

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:33

and the regime in Venezuela.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:34

I would be.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:35

Absolutely terrified if I was them looking at the precedent that

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:38

Israel has set, uh, in bombing Iran.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:40

I mean, lots of terrifying things there.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:42

Um, so we were, we were initially gonna try and just talk about Latin America

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:46

and then maybe push this episode out in a week or two when things calm

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:48

down, but we're not gonna do that.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:49

We're gonna push it out as quick as possible.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:52

Um.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:53

I've been very busy this week.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:55

If you have not signed up for my substack, I'm putting out analysis very,

Jacob Shapiro: 00:01:58

very often on Substack, it's, I, I've, I'm using the Substack really as the

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:02

place where my first drafts are going.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:04

So as I'm trying to get things out of my fingertips before they go to my clients,

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:07

I'm getting very rough drafts there.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:09

It's free, uh.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:10

You can find it online if you just, uh, search Jacob Shapiro and Substack.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:13

So it's there if, if you want those types of written thoughts.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:16

Um, we're pumping out content on this podcast.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:18

And then also cousin Marco and I on the Geopolitical Cousins podcast feed,

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:22

uh, pumping out content, actually recording with him a couple hours

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:25

after I, I hit stop on this recording.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:27

So, and it's not gonna stop anytime soon.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:29

And we'll, we'll keep trying to get as much content as we can out to you.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:33

Obviously I also have clients and a family and everything else, but, um.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:36

I find that moments like these, um, are the moments where providing sober, well

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:42

sourced access to a minimum amount of information that we have is, is super

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:46

important because for whatever reason, the way our media ecosystem works, like

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:51

it's just not, it's not delivering that.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:52

It, it's a lot of hard work to sort through all of this and, and

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:55

get some sense of truth on what's happening now and then a sense of

Jacob Shapiro: 00:02:58

what this, uh, what this could all mean and where we're going from here.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:03:01

Um.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:03:02

You can email me at jacob@jacobshapiro.com if you wanna talk about any of the

Jacob Shapiro: 00:03:06

things that you've heard on this podcast, anything going on in the world.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:03:09

Otherwise, take care of the people that you love.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:03:12

It's crazy out there.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:03:13

Cheers and see you there.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:03:17

Kudo.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:03:18

First of all, it's nice to meet you.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:03:19

We've been trying to put this together for a while.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:03:21

Schedules were difficult.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:03:22

I also have to tell you, I had not.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:03:23

Seen you face to face before it's incredibly disorienting for me.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:03:27

You look exactly.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:03:28

I mean, like, exactly like my college roommate.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:03:30

I feel like I'm talking to Elias, who is probably listening

Jacob Shapiro: 00:03:33

to this podcast right now.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:03:34

Like the glasses, the beard, the hair, like, like the matcha.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:03:37

It's like literally I'm talking to my college roommate.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:03:40

Uh, so it's nice to see you man.

Facundo Robles: 00:03:42

No, it, it is nice to see you.

Facundo Robles: 00:03:43

Hi.

Facundo Robles: 00:03:44

Hi Jacob.

Facundo Robles: 00:03:44

Thank for, thank for having me.

Facundo Robles: 00:03:46

Um, I know so well on, on my end first.

Facundo Robles: 00:03:49

First of all, I, I really appreciate doing this on a holiday, this Juneteenth

Facundo Robles: 00:03:53

in the US so I know many people are off today and I'm, I'm grateful for your time.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:03:59

Uh, right back at you.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:04:00

So, um, well, let's dive in.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:04:03

I know that you prepped some, some thoughts about the effect

Jacob Shapiro: 00:04:06

of the Israel Iran War on what is happening in the Middle East.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:04:09

We're recording, as he said, on Juneteenth.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:04:11

It's 8:48 AM central here.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:04:13

I. Even if we get this up like 12 hours later, who knows?

Jacob Shapiro: 00:04:16

Like many things could have changed at this point.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:04:18

So, you know, if you're listening and anything seems overtaken by

Jacob Shapiro: 00:04:21

events, hey, this was a nice, uh, snapshot from this particular moment.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:04:24

Uh, before I, before I ask you about some of, to develop those thoughts about

Jacob Shapiro: 00:04:27

the impact of the war, um, on Latin America, I actually, the, the first

Jacob Shapiro: 00:04:32

question I wanted to start with, with you was that to me, um, Latin America

Jacob Shapiro: 00:04:36

and specifically South America seems divorced from the chaos of Eurasia.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:04:40

I mean, Eurasia.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:04:42

You know, you've got the Russia, Ukraine War going.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:04:44

We've got India and Pakistan at each other's throats.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:04:46

Now we've got Israel and Iran striking each other.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:04:49

North Korea is still sitting up there doing their crazy, like you

Jacob Shapiro: 00:04:52

start looking around Eurasia, like there's basically conflict everywhere.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:04:55

And that's not to say there isn't conflict in Latin America.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:04:58

There's obviously narco terrorism and the.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:05:02

Conflicts between sort of cartels and, and governments and all sorts of

Jacob Shapiro: 00:05:05

political populist issues and issues of democratic transition from Peru to

Jacob Shapiro: 00:05:10

Argentina to Mexico, everywhere else.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:05:12

But it's, it's qualitatively different.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:05:14

We're not talking about state on State War in Latin America.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:05:17

We're not talking about nuclear proliferation.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:05:19

We're not talking about, you know.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:05:21

Potentially hundreds of thousands of dead and like all these

Jacob Shapiro: 00:05:24

sorts of things being realigned.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:05:26

So I, I guess just, you know, from somebody who is sitting in Buenos

Jacob Shapiro: 00:05:28

Aires who is sitting about the, who is sitting in the region, do you look

Jacob Shapiro: 00:05:32

out at the region and suddenly it's like, yeah, like we're pretty good.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:05:34

Like maybe we have our problems, but this is the place to be.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:05:37

This is the future.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:05:38

'cause we have.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:05:38

Cheap energy resources and we have cheap food resources and we are far

Jacob Shapiro: 00:05:42

away from all these crazy people who seem obsessed with, you know, bombing

Jacob Shapiro: 00:05:45

each other into the previous century.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:05:47

So I just take that any direction you want.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:05:48

You can take that right into your thoughts as well.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:05:50

But I'm, I'm struck by the stability of Latin America and South America

Jacob Shapiro: 00:05:54

compared to the rest of the world, which that comment in and

Jacob Shapiro: 00:05:57

of itself is kind of remarkable.

Facundo Robles: 00:06:00

Oh, Jacob.

Facundo Robles: 00:06:00

I think that's one of the most interesting points regarding the, the region.

Facundo Robles: 00:06:04

And in fact, when, when talking about Latin American international relations,

Facundo Robles: 00:06:08

that's one of the things that first, uh, comes up, um, Latin America, even

Facundo Robles: 00:06:14

though it's very difficult to talk about it as one block because it's a very

Facundo Robles: 00:06:18

like heterogeneous, uh, region, each country has its own particular dynamic.

Facundo Robles: 00:06:23

Um.

Facundo Robles: 00:06:24

And it's very difficult to talk about Latin America going in one uh, direction.

Facundo Robles: 00:06:29

You can see trends, but not one direction.

Facundo Robles: 00:06:32

Um, having said that, Latin America is characterized by being a peaceful region.

Facundo Robles: 00:06:38

As you said, there's no like state of state wars.

Facundo Robles: 00:06:41

You have internal, you have domestic issues, really important issues.

Facundo Robles: 00:06:47

And also you have, uh, in the continent, you have the United States.

Facundo Robles: 00:06:52

Being like the heman of the region, uh, historically over the last

Facundo Robles: 00:06:57

centuries controlling, uh, the region of being the main character there.

Facundo Robles: 00:07:02

Of course you had some other countries trying to question that, trying to

Facundo Robles: 00:07:06

be, uh, the main characters of it.

Facundo Robles: 00:07:09

You see China challenging disposition mainly on trade and investments, but.

Facundo Robles: 00:07:17

It's been always there.

Facundo Robles: 00:07:18

The United States, you can see the Monroe Doctrine.

Facundo Robles: 00:07:21

Uh, there's been an influence, a direct influence of the United States.

Facundo Robles: 00:07:24

We don't have that many variety of voices coming from out the region.

Facundo Robles: 00:07:30

Mm-hmm.

Facundo Robles: 00:07:31

You have some, let's say, marginal voices, some actors that are coming,

Facundo Robles: 00:07:42

um, some countries that have agreements.

Facundo Robles: 00:07:46

Formal or informal agreements with different countries like Russia,

Facundo Robles: 00:07:52

Iran, uh, China, Europe as a European Union, but it's very difficult to see

Facundo Robles: 00:08:03

that you have more a different country rather than us having influence.

Facundo Robles: 00:08:09

Having said that, you also have.

Facundo Robles: 00:08:14

Very, the region has been historically challenged by its own military coups.

Facundo Robles: 00:08:23

Um, each country has, or the, in the 20th century, been marked by

Facundo Robles: 00:08:29

extremely violent military coups, and that has been that, that has also

Facundo Robles: 00:08:33

questioned the role of the defense.

Facundo Robles: 00:08:36

Sector in the, in the region, having countries that they don't

Facundo Robles: 00:08:40

even have any sort of armed forces, um, like Costa Rica for example.

Facundo Robles: 00:08:47

Mm-hmm.

Facundo Robles: 00:08:48

Uh, so you can see that the role of the military is also

Facundo Robles: 00:08:51

extremely weak in Latin America.

Facundo Robles: 00:08:55

And you can see that there is different ways which we.

Facundo Robles: 00:08:58

Create problems, um, regarding the nuclear per proliferation.

Facundo Robles: 00:09:04

It's very interesting to see the plate agreement in which countries

Facundo Robles: 00:09:08

of Latin America have agreed not to, not to get involved, uh, in that.

Facundo Robles: 00:09:14

Uh, and that's in fact one of the most, yeah, clear examples

Facundo Robles: 00:09:19

of how the region can work.

Facundo Robles: 00:09:22

On one, same direction, however, I must say is the exception,

Facundo Robles: 00:09:27

not the, not the rule.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:09:29

Mm-hmm.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:09:31

Makes sense.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:09:32

Um, well let's dive into to some of the thoughts that I know that you prepared.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:09:35

So how do you think that the, the war is going to affect, um, different

Jacob Shapiro: 00:09:39

countries in the region and, and take it wherever you wanna start?

Facundo Robles: 00:09:44

Well, um.

Facundo Robles: 00:09:46

Being very, uh, upfront, I'm not here to offer expert analysis on the

Facundo Robles: 00:09:50

developments unfolding minute by minute in the, in the Middle East, as you,

Facundo Robles: 00:09:53

as you mentioned, is really important.

Facundo Robles: 00:09:55

To clarify the date and time of this, as a lot of things are changing, um,

Facundo Robles: 00:10:01

there are people far more qualified, uh, than me for, for doing that.

Facundo Robles: 00:10:04

In fact.

Facundo Robles: 00:10:05

As a recommendation, if you're looking for a great breakdown of what's happening

Facundo Robles: 00:10:08

in the, in the region that we recommend, uh, there was one of the Carnegie

Facundo Robles: 00:10:13

Connects is a podcast from the Carnegie Endowment yesterday between Sima Shine

Facundo Robles: 00:10:18

and Alibis, moderated by the great, uh, Aaron David Miller, which is in encrypt.

Facundo Robles: 00:10:23

Mm-hmm.

Facundo Robles: 00:10:23

Incredibly helpful.

Facundo Robles: 00:10:25

Um, but shifting gears a bit, and this is where I hope, uh,

Facundo Robles: 00:10:30

I can add some, some value.

Facundo Robles: 00:10:33

Thinking of what does all of this mean for Latin America?

Facundo Robles: 00:10:36

Um, if we start thinking of this country by country, we'll

Facundo Robles: 00:10:43

see different consequences.

Facundo Robles: 00:10:45

But as the region, we have some markets in common, so.

Facundo Robles: 00:10:51

Since the escalation began, the brand crude has gone up more than 8%, right?

Facundo Robles: 00:10:57

Reflecting the, the mounting risk premium attached to, to

Facundo Robles: 00:11:00

the Middle East Volatility.

Facundo Robles: 00:11:02

Um, according to analysts from institutions such as Goldman Sachs,

Facundo Robles: 00:11:06

Barclays, uh, energy intelligence, the current price movement could

Facundo Robles: 00:11:11

just be the, the beginning.

Facundo Robles: 00:11:13

And in fact, some experts suggest that depending on how the conflict DeVol.

Facundo Robles: 00:11:18

Particularly if the United States becomes directly involved or, or if

Facundo Robles: 00:11:22

there's a disruption in oil flows through the straight up, the price of

Facundo Robles: 00:11:26

oil could rise significantly further.

Facundo Robles: 00:11:30

That kind of spike doesn't just affect all producers and consumers.

Facundo Robles: 00:11:35

It sent ripple effects, of course, through other markets too, including

Facundo Robles: 00:11:38

agriculture, where Latin America plays a significant, uh, role.

Facundo Robles: 00:11:42

For example, if you take soybean oil, the July, 2025 contract in Chicago went up 1%

Facundo Robles: 00:11:48

in a week and March, 2026, up almost 2%.

Facundo Robles: 00:11:52

Uh, these are based countries like Argentina, Brazil, who are

Facundo Robles: 00:11:55

big exporters, but also Peru and Chile, who import a lot of.

Facundo Robles: 00:11:58

They're food imports and also you have the fertilizer.

Facundo Robles: 00:12:03

Iran is a major player in nitrogen based fertilizers, and Israel

Facundo Robles: 00:12:07

exports a lot of potassium chloride.

Facundo Robles: 00:12:11

And so disruptions in supply from either country, heat, farmers across

Facundo Robles: 00:12:15

Latin America almost immediately.

Facundo Robles: 00:12:17

Um, if we break it down country by country, um, giving like a

Facundo Robles: 00:12:23

brief, a brief like domestic.

Facundo Robles: 00:12:26

Uh, diagnosis and then going to the most geopolitical side of this, um, in

Facundo Robles: 00:12:32

Mexico, you have President Shane beginning her administration in October, 2024.

Facundo Robles: 00:12:39

Her president marked a, a continuation of AMLO populist agenda about a more

Facundo Robles: 00:12:44

pragmatic and technocratic tone.

Facundo Robles: 00:12:46

In early 2025, the Mexican Congress approved sweeping judicial reforms

Facundo Robles: 00:12:51

that replaced all city members of the judiciary through direct elections.

Facundo Robles: 00:12:56

This, this move broke not only with Mexicans, but also with westerns

Facundo Robles: 00:13:00

traditional model of checks and balances, um, and has drawn widespread criticism for

Facundo Robles: 00:13:06

undermining, uh, judicial independence.

Facundo Robles: 00:13:09

Geopolitical in Mexico remains at the center of the North

Facundo Robles: 00:13:12

American vulnerability.

Facundo Robles: 00:13:14

It's it's proximity to the United States, and deep integration into continental

Facundo Robles: 00:13:19

supply chains means that any significant escalation in Middle East, such as

Facundo Robles: 00:13:23

disruptions in energy or global shipping, directly affects Mexico's energy,

Facundo Robles: 00:13:27

security, investment flows, macroeconomic stability, energy prices, and logistics.

Facundo Robles: 00:13:34

Volatility will be felt first, of course.

Facundo Robles: 00:13:37

Um.

Facundo Robles: 00:13:38

The mission most strongly in Mexico, particularly in the automotive and

Facundo Robles: 00:13:42

agricultural, uh, sectors, where you have the just in time supply

Facundo Robles: 00:13:46

models that are already strict.

Facundo Robles: 00:13:49

Um, moreover, you have Mexico being part of the U-S-M-C-A,

Facundo Robles: 00:13:54

uh, and disagreement has been.

Facundo Robles: 00:14:00

Mexico has seen the agreements mechanism tested repeatedly,

Facundo Robles: 00:14:03

particularly on labor enforcement, energy policy, environmental rules.

Facundo Robles: 00:14:08

The U-S-M-C-A is officially scheduled for review in 2026, but negotiations

Facundo Robles: 00:14:13

have been pushed forward and early discussions are set to beginning late

Facundo Robles: 00:14:17

2025, following pressure from the United States, particularly from President

Facundo Robles: 00:14:22

Trump who used the agreement as tool.

Facundo Robles: 00:14:24

Let's call it tolerant, uh, and has signaled interesting tightening rules on

Facundo Robles: 00:14:29

outs, steel and fresh shipment from China.

Facundo Robles: 00:14:33

Um, Mexico is trying to prepare for this review through a government led dialogue

Facundo Robles: 00:14:39

with business leaders and US stakeholders.

Facundo Robles: 00:14:42

Um, however, having the confluence of the judicial reforms, investor

Facundo Robles: 00:14:47

uncertainty, tariff threats, uh, all of these has already taken a toll.

Facundo Robles: 00:14:52

Um.

Facundo Robles: 00:14:54

Uh, the Mexico Central Bank has stated that the foreign direct

Facundo Robles: 00:14:57

investment, the FDI dropped 21% in the first quarter of 2025.

Facundo Robles: 00:15:02

And the economy is expected to grow by just 0.1% this year.

Facundo Robles: 00:15:06

In all this context, and knowing what is happening in the Middle

Facundo Robles: 00:15:10

East, Pemex may see some relief, uh, from the higher global oil.

Facundo Robles: 00:15:16

Oil prices, but the broader Mexican economy remains vulnerable to inflationary

Facundo Robles: 00:15:21

pressure, pace of volatility, um, shift in political wings in Washington.

Facundo Robles: 00:15:27

Of course, if the conflict in Middle East expands Mexico would

Facundo Robles: 00:15:32

find itself economically exposed and politically constrained.

Facundo Robles: 00:15:38

At the very moment he is being asked to.

Facundo Robles: 00:15:40

Story, you can renegotiate the future of its most important,

Facundo Robles: 00:15:45

uh, trade relationship.

Facundo Robles: 00:15:46

So it's very really important to take a, take a look, a very close

Facundo Robles: 00:15:51

look at what's happening in Mexico and what will happen in Mexico for

Facundo Robles: 00:15:55

the, for the next couple of months.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:15:57

Um,

Facundo Robles: 00:15:58

if you want, we can, we can keep working on, uh,

Facundo Robles: 00:16:01

country by country if as you wish.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:16:04

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:16:04

No, because I mean it's, and, and there's part of me that wants to understand

Jacob Shapiro: 00:16:09

the impact of the war on Latin America, and also part of me that thinks

Jacob Shapiro: 00:16:12

that the war itself is crowding out.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:16:14

Important developments and we'll continue to crowd out important developments

Jacob Shapiro: 00:16:17

in the weeks and months ahead.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:16:19

Um, because as you said with Mexico, Mexico is undergoing

Jacob Shapiro: 00:16:21

fundamental transitions here, and I'm not sure what the future

Jacob Shapiro: 00:16:24

of Mexican democracy looks like.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:16:26

Uh, Claudia Shane Baum seems relatively pragmatic to me.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:16:29

Um, but once she goes, what's going to replace her?

Jacob Shapiro: 00:16:32

Like, Marna looks like it's becoming the pre and we're not always gonna have

Jacob Shapiro: 00:16:35

a pragmatic person at the top who is willing to limit herself in some way.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:16:39

Uh, Peru looks like an absolute dumpster fire.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:16:43

If we're talking about democracy, well, we look like we're transitioning

Jacob Shapiro: 00:16:46

between authoritarianism and chaos.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:16:48

It seems like Peruvian democracy's dying a slow death.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:16:51

Um, you've got the example of El Salvador sitting there, which makes anyone

Jacob Shapiro: 00:16:56

with a moral center uncomfortable.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:16:57

But you also can't deny that El Salvador is.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:17:00

Orders of magnitude, more peaceful, more stable, more economically prosperous

Jacob Shapiro: 00:17:04

than it was, than when bouquet started.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:17:06

So it's hard to argue with results.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:17:08

Um, and then, you know, you've got Argentina, you're

Jacob Shapiro: 00:17:10

down there in Buenos Aires.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:17:11

We've got the, the, the chainsaw wielding maniac.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:17:14

We've got Lula in Brazil where he's sort of cannibalized the left.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:17:18

Um, to a sense, it seems to me that le the left has become Lula

Jacob Shapiro: 00:17:21

and that eventually Lula will exit stage left, and then it's just the

Jacob Shapiro: 00:17:24

center right in Brazil going forward.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:17:25

Brazil also a country where the military plays a bigger role, so, um.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:17:30

I know I rambled a little bit there, but I mean, those are at

Jacob Shapiro: 00:17:32

least some of the countries that, that are at the top of my mind.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:17:34

So I'm curious if that's your list as well, or if there are others that we

Jacob Shapiro: 00:17:37

should be thinking about or maybe which country on that list do you think is

Jacob Shapiro: 00:17:39

most instructive for us to talk about?

Facundo Robles: 00:17:42

Let's go.

Facundo Robles: 00:17:43

You, you said a lot of things extremely interesting and, and serious things.

Facundo Robles: 00:17:47

Um, on top of that, we also have a lot of elections happening

Facundo Robles: 00:17:52

this year and the next, that will change also this trend in the.

Facundo Robles: 00:17:58

In the region as you being extremely simplistic in

Facundo Robles: 00:18:01

saying the left and the right.

Facundo Robles: 00:18:02

Mm-hmm.

Facundo Robles: 00:18:03

You can see some of the governments of the left of the continent, uh, potentially

Facundo Robles: 00:18:09

moving to the right in the next elections.

Facundo Robles: 00:18:13

And we are talking about Chile, ver Brazil, Colombia mainly.

Facundo Robles: 00:18:17

Um, going into each of these, I will start with, um, Argentina first,

Facundo Robles: 00:18:25

which I think is a very serious.

Facundo Robles: 00:18:27

Country, uh, knowing what is happening, injury in Middle East, but also what

Facundo Robles: 00:18:33

have happened, uh, in that country before President Javier Millet was in

Facundo Robles: 00:18:40

Israel at the time that the, that the attacks, uh, to the nuclear facilities

Facundo Robles: 00:18:45

in Iran started, uh, in fact, it was there that he announced the relocation

Facundo Robles: 00:18:50

of Argentina's Embassy from Tel Aviv to.

Facundo Robles: 00:18:55

It was just ours before Israel strike.

Facundo Robles: 00:18:58

Um, and that was a big shift in Argentina's foreign policy.

Facundo Robles: 00:19:02

It brought the country much closer to Israel and the us.

Facundo Robles: 00:19:06

Uh, although rhetorically, Malay had already stated that, and it really

Facundo Robles: 00:19:10

brought with its long standing tradition of neutrality in the region.

Facundo Robles: 00:19:16

And it's important because this, the implications are twofold on the one hand.

Facundo Robles: 00:19:21

This strengthens ties with powerful allies, but on the other in may

Facundo Robles: 00:19:25

increase Argentina's exposure to international terrorists especially,

Facundo Robles: 00:19:29

especially given its tragic history.

Facundo Robles: 00:19:33

On Mar on March 17th, 1982, the Israeli embassy was bond in Bueno Aires,

Facundo Robles: 00:19:38

killing 22 people on July 18th, 1994.

Facundo Robles: 00:19:43

Uh, the amia, which is the, the Argentine Israelite Mutual Association, was bond in

Facundo Robles: 00:19:48

Buenos Aires as well, killing 85 people.

Facundo Robles: 00:19:52

Uh, and in fact, the latter was one of the deadliest anti-America

Facundo Robles: 00:19:55

vaccines to World War ii.

Facundo Robles: 00:19:56

Mm-hmm.

Facundo Robles: 00:19:57

Both were linked to Hezbollah and Iran.

Facundo Robles: 00:20:01

Iran has a history of using proxy war to strike targets abroad.

Facundo Robles: 00:20:04

So Argentina is once again on alert.

Facundo Robles: 00:20:07

Um, the relocation of the embassy combined with Malays high profile

Facundo Robles: 00:20:11

embrace of Israeli leadership could play the country in the, in the cross.

Facundo Robles: 00:20:15

Her and my national intelligence and culture terror capability have improved

Facundo Robles: 00:20:19

significantly since the nineties.

Facundo Robles: 00:20:21

Attacks by nonstate actors often require minimal infrastructure, eh,

Facundo Robles: 00:20:26

making them really hard to, to prevent.

Facundo Robles: 00:20:29

In the energy sector, Argentina stands to benefit, let's say, uh, from a

Facundo Robles: 00:20:33

high global oil and LNG prices due to its past back mortar reserve.

Facundo Robles: 00:20:38

Uh, and also ARG D is planning to expand the LNG export infrastructure.

Facundo Robles: 00:20:44

However, it still relies heavily on importing, uh, refined fuels and price

Facundo Robles: 00:20:49

volatility could disrupt domestic consumptions, uh, and logistics.

Facundo Robles: 00:20:53

And this is really important.

Facundo Robles: 00:20:54

Regarding Lee's point of view, because when he took office in December,

Facundo Robles: 00:20:59

2023, monthly inflation was 25%.

Facundo Robles: 00:21:04

Monthly inflation mm-hmm.

Facundo Robles: 00:21:06

Was 25% last week.

Facundo Robles: 00:21:08

The May, 2025 figure came, um, at 1.5%.

Facundo Robles: 00:21:16

A dramatic turnaround, of course, for it.

Facundo Robles: 00:21:19

Regular or developed country, this would mean, uh, still a very high inflation.

Facundo Robles: 00:21:24

But for Argentina standards, this is a huge success.

Facundo Robles: 00:21:28

If Millane maintains this trajectory alongside the national public organization

Facundo Robles: 00:21:33

being laid by his sister, Karenina, mille and sustains strong communication,

Facundo Robles: 00:21:38

communication and agenda setting.

Facundo Robles: 00:21:40

As he's been doing for the last couple of months, this will boost his chances

Facundo Robles: 00:21:45

in October, 2025 midterm elections.

Facundo Robles: 00:21:48

Mm-hmm.

Facundo Robles: 00:21:48

And the outcome of those elections are essential, formulaes, broader vision

Facundo Robles: 00:21:52

of transforming Argentina in a more market oriented, uh, but at the same

Facundo Robles: 00:21:58

time for the United States, having one of its closest allies in the region.

Facundo Robles: 00:22:04

Um, and the Argentina case is a very, it would be used as a case study.

Facundo Robles: 00:22:09

To see how Donald Trump is treating a country that has taken a 180

Facundo Robles: 00:22:15

degree turn around, uh, and is being extremely, uh, in favor of your country.

Facundo Robles: 00:22:22

He's going, he is going, is Trump going to favor Argentina and Malay?

Facundo Robles: 00:22:26

Uh, given this orientation or it's gonna remain indifferent.

Facundo Robles: 00:22:32

Mm-hmm.

Facundo Robles: 00:22:32

Well, that would be a huge signal for the rest of the countries, um, aligning

Facundo Robles: 00:22:38

in the middle of these, uh, elections that we are, that we're talking about.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:22:44

Whi which direction do you think that he'll go?

Jacob Shapiro: 00:22:46

I mean, I melee and, uh, Elon Musk were famously swinging chainsaws around

Jacob Shapiro: 00:22:50

together and Elon's on the outs now.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:22:51

So does that mean that, uh, and there's also, I dunno if you've noticed this from

Jacob Shapiro: 00:22:55

Argentina, um, but I. There's, there's very much a division within Trump's base.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:23:00

It feels like over the Iran war.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:23:02

You have, you know, your Steve Bannons and Tucker Carlsons and your Elon's out there

Jacob Shapiro: 00:23:07

lamenting us fiscal prophecy, talking about how the neocons have hijacked

Jacob Shapiro: 00:23:11

Trump and they're starting this big war.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:23:13

And then you've got, you know, the, the other stalwarts that are still there.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:23:16

And it's hard for me to sort of calibrate how much are in one camp

Jacob Shapiro: 00:23:19

and how much are in another, and how much political pressure is that

Jacob Shapiro: 00:23:22

gonna put on on President Trump.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:23:23

But.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:23:23

Do, do you think that President Trump will respond to Melay in that way, or do you

Jacob Shapiro: 00:23:28

think he'll just be, 'cause I mean, we're talk, we talked about Israel and Iran.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:23:31

Israel was the country that said, fine, no tariffs whatsoever,

Jacob Shapiro: 00:23:34

and we'll do whatever you want.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:23:35

And President Trump didn't care about that.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:23:37

All he wanted to do is go to Saudi Arabia and sign AI semiconductor

Jacob Shapiro: 00:23:40

deals like two months ago.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:23:41

So I'll, I'll put you on the spot, like, which direction do you think it'll go?

Facundo Robles: 00:23:47

A couple of thoughts.

Facundo Robles: 00:23:49

The first is.

Facundo Robles: 00:23:54

Some of the last presidents of the United States have stated, uh, during

Facundo Robles: 00:23:58

the campaign or at, at the first couple of months of their presidency

Facundo Robles: 00:24:03

that Latin America was, uh, the region that they were really interested in.

Facundo Robles: 00:24:06

And of course then things happen.

Facundo Robles: 00:24:10

Uh, you have a more, more urgent, uh, needs somewhere else, particularly

Facundo Robles: 00:24:16

Middle East for the last, uh, decades.

Facundo Robles: 00:24:19

Um, but Europe as well, Asia as well.

Facundo Robles: 00:24:23

Uh, so Latin America, and going back to the first reflection that you were

Facundo Robles: 00:24:27

making, given that it's inter regionally peaceful, uh, is not usually, uh,

Facundo Robles: 00:24:35

an urgent matter for the, for the US

Facundo Robles: 00:24:40

for the first couple of months.

Facundo Robles: 00:24:43

In this second Trump administration, there were signs that maybe this time Latin

Facundo Robles: 00:24:49

America was going to be more relevant, uh, particularly given the role of China in

Facundo Robles: 00:24:55

Latin America's economy, given the role of a migration for the President's campaign,

Facundo Robles: 00:25:04

uh, and also given the security matter, uh, with drug trafficking and, and stuff.

Facundo Robles: 00:25:13

Now what is happening in the Middle East?

Facundo Robles: 00:25:14

We change all of that.

Facundo Robles: 00:25:16

Those priorities change.

Facundo Robles: 00:25:18

Of course.

Facundo Robles: 00:25:22

I think that

Facundo Robles: 00:25:26

on the Latin American side, you will have to analyze each of the

Facundo Robles: 00:25:29

presidents talking about Argentina.

Facundo Robles: 00:25:31

Malay, even though a lot of people has claimed him to be extremely

Facundo Robles: 00:25:36

dogmatic, he has shown himself as.

Facundo Robles: 00:25:39

Really, really pragmatic.

Facundo Robles: 00:25:41

Uh, and in fact, you can see that now,

Facundo Robles: 00:25:47

for example, during his inauguration, uh, president Zelensky was in

Facundo Robles: 00:25:53

Argentina, was there presence?

Facundo Robles: 00:25:55

Mm-hmm.

Facundo Robles: 00:25:55

Sitting in the first row.

Facundo Robles: 00:25:57

Uh, after the, the encounter between President Trump Zelensky, uh, in

Facundo Robles: 00:26:05

Washington, millet remained quiet.

Facundo Robles: 00:26:09

He didn't say anything, and it is the same thing he's doing right now.

Facundo Robles: 00:26:13

Of course, he was in Israel.

Facundo Robles: 00:26:15

He claimed or he announced the move for from of the embassy, and by itself

Facundo Robles: 00:26:21

that means a lot, but he remains quiet.

Facundo Robles: 00:26:27

In fact, even with domestic issues, he's remaining quiet.

Facundo Robles: 00:26:33

Uh, and I think he is, that displays the most pragmatical side that he has.

Facundo Robles: 00:26:39

He knows when to talk, when to shout, but also he knows when

Facundo Robles: 00:26:45

to listen and when to wait.

Facundo Robles: 00:26:47

Um,

Facundo Robles: 00:26:50

regarding the whole Elon Musk, Donald Trump side, I think the

Facundo Robles: 00:26:54

pragmatic side of Malay will also be displayed on that arena.

Facundo Robles: 00:26:59

Um.

Facundo Robles: 00:27:01

In the short term, he will have to be closer to Donald Trump, of course.

Facundo Robles: 00:27:07

Uh, but in the long term, we will see how the relationship between

Facundo Robles: 00:27:11

Elon Musk and, and millet, uh, moves forward, particularly knowing that

Facundo Robles: 00:27:17

Argentina needs, uh, hard currency, he needs foreign direct investment.

Facundo Robles: 00:27:22

And there was conversations starting, uh, of maybe.

Facundo Robles: 00:27:27

In the best dreams of the current Argentine administration, having a Tesla

Facundo Robles: 00:27:32

factory here knowing that we have, we are part of the lithium triangle, uh mm-hmm.

Facundo Robles: 00:27:38

With Bolivia and Chile, and we should analyze each of the countries, how

Facundo Robles: 00:27:43

they will, how they will move with, um,

Facundo Robles: 00:27:48

the United States.

Facundo Robles: 00:27:49

But from a, from an American point of view, I think it will, uh, everything

Facundo Robles: 00:27:54

will move now to the Middle East.

Facundo Robles: 00:27:57

Uh, there are more urgent priorities happening right now.

Facundo Robles: 00:28:01

Um,

Facundo Robles: 00:28:03

Malay is still an ally, a very close ally, and it will be used that relationship

Facundo Robles: 00:28:12

as an example for different countries to move on that same direction.

Facundo Robles: 00:28:16

You have extremely important elections happening, this happening

Facundo Robles: 00:28:20

this year, and we already had.

Facundo Robles: 00:28:24

Uh, for example, in Ecuador.

Facundo Robles: 00:28:26

Uh, in Ecuador, you have President Noboa originally elected in 2023

Facundo Robles: 00:28:30

through a, through a snap election, triggered by the cross death Dete

Facundo Robles: 00:28:34

Sada mechanism that dissolved Congress under lasso president lasso.

Facundo Robles: 00:28:39

But he was reelected, eh, this year with a full constitutional method, and now

Facundo Robles: 00:28:44

his term ends or extends until 2029.

Facundo Robles: 00:28:48

Um.

Facundo Robles: 00:28:51

Novoa is governing a country under siege from organized crime

Facundo Robles: 00:28:55

and economic fragility as well.

Facundo Robles: 00:28:56

Even though the country is not actively renegotiated a major IMF

Facundo Robles: 00:29:01

program, it still remains highly vulnerable to market pressures.

Facundo Robles: 00:29:05

Uh, and equality is clearly looking for support from the United States.

Facundo Robles: 00:29:11

So that's another country to take a, to take a look.

Facundo Robles: 00:29:15

Um, and of course talking about.

Facundo Robles: 00:29:18

The consequences of oil prices and the relationship and what the

Facundo Robles: 00:29:22

region with Iran and the region or the US and the region, we can.

Facundo Robles: 00:29:28

Talk about Venezuela.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:29:30

Yeah, we could talk.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:29:32

I mean, I'm, I'm conscious of, of the time 'cause I know you're just gonna have to

Jacob Shapiro: 00:29:35

agree to come back on 'cause we're not gonna be able to, to cover all of it.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:29:38

But, um, I, I guess the, the first question I have down that line of

Jacob Shapiro: 00:29:42

thinking though, 'cause you're talking about the sort of, from the, from

Jacob Shapiro: 00:29:45

the region's perspective, the focus on the Middle East, that, at least

Jacob Shapiro: 00:29:49

on the surface to me, sounds like an incredible opportunity for China.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:29:52

Maybe not so much so for Russia because they're bogged down in Ukraine.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:29:55

But if China was looking for a vacuum of power to insert itself in, I

Jacob Shapiro: 00:29:59

mean, that seems like a prime place.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:30:01

You were mentioning, you know, Mar, secretary of State, Marco Rubio.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:30:04

Was saying the things you said about how we're gonna focus on

Jacob Shapiro: 00:30:06

the Western Hemisphere, we're gonna focus on Latin America.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:30:08

Panama was, I believe, the first place that he visited and now that

Jacob Shapiro: 00:30:12

is sort of all, uh, overturned.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:30:14

So do you think it creates an opportunity for China, I guess is

Jacob Shapiro: 00:30:17

the first part of the question.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:30:18

And then the second question is, and I know this might be a way to

Jacob Shapiro: 00:30:21

back end to some of the particular politics that you're talking about, um.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:30:25

Is there any sense that South America itself, and I mean Latin America more

Jacob Shapiro: 00:30:30

broadly, but I'm thinking this is more realistic in a South American

Jacob Shapiro: 00:30:32

context, where we will see more regional integration, where we will see sort of

Jacob Shapiro: 00:30:37

South American powers like cooperating and operating on the world stage that way?

Jacob Shapiro: 00:30:42

Or do we get another version?

Jacob Shapiro: 00:30:44

Of soft imperialism where no, no, no.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:30:46

Like Brazil will have relations with China and the US will have good

Jacob Shapiro: 00:30:48

relations with Argentina and you know, Peru will be up for grabs.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:30:52

I'm, I'm like, you know, uh, pulling things out of thin

Jacob Shapiro: 00:30:55

air to make a point there.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:30:56

Um, do you think there's any sense that no, like South America actually

Jacob Shapiro: 00:30:59

could be a source of great prosperity and wealth and it could say no, if you

Jacob Shapiro: 00:31:02

don't play along with us, we're not gonna send you our soybeans, or we're

Jacob Shapiro: 00:31:06

not gonna send you the lithium and the lithium triangle and you need to

Jacob Shapiro: 00:31:09

invest here in order to build things.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:31:10

And we don't care whether it's the United States or, or China.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:31:12

So.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:31:13

However you wanna tackle that.

Facundo Robles: 00:31:16

Regarding the first part of the question, um, I would think that

Facundo Robles: 00:31:22

it provides an opportunity, uh, for China.

Facundo Robles: 00:31:25

It is really important to clarify one thing that,

Facundo Robles: 00:31:30

and I could see, I was able to see this, uh, with my own eyes.

Facundo Robles: 00:31:37

And I was able to listen to this with my own years, through this past couple

Facundo Robles: 00:31:41

of years living in Washington and now spending the, the summer in, in Argentina.

Facundo Robles: 00:31:49

There's a very asymmetric way of thinking international relations, um, from the

Facundo Robles: 00:31:58

United States and from South America.

Facundo Robles: 00:32:02

The United States is clearly.

Facundo Robles: 00:32:05

Concerned about the role of China migration and security.

Facundo Robles: 00:32:09

As I mentioned before, while the region, the region is clearly, um,

Facundo Robles: 00:32:16

concerned about some countries, inflation, some countries their own

Facundo Robles: 00:32:21

security, some countries need money, need investments, need infrastructure,

Facundo Robles: 00:32:28

need, even really, really basic stuff.

Facundo Robles: 00:32:34

There's a, a famous saying that, uh, by some officials from Latin America in,

Facundo Robles: 00:32:43

in DC that they say that when, when a chin, when, when a US official come to

Facundo Robles: 00:32:49

the office, they leave the meeting with a lecture on democracy, but when the Chinese

Facundo Robles: 00:32:55

official has a meeting with them, they leave that meeting with a new airport.

Facundo Robles: 00:33:01

Mm-hmm.

Facundo Robles: 00:33:02

So the Chinese ha have that leverage, even though you can see that that trend

Facundo Robles: 00:33:06

is, uh, going down compared to what it used to be in the first, uh, at the first

Facundo Robles: 00:33:13

phase, let's say, of the Belt and Road Initiative is still a major, uh, actor.

Facundo Robles: 00:33:19

And what, what could happen to United States that it will

Facundo Robles: 00:33:23

redistribute their resources to the Middle East if they get involved.

Facundo Robles: 00:33:29

Uh, directly or indirectly, uh, we will have to see what

Facundo Robles: 00:33:34

happens with NATO and Russia.

Facundo Robles: 00:33:37

Uh, we'll have, we'll see what happens between India and Pakistan.

Facundo Robles: 00:33:41

And you mentioned mm-hmm.

Facundo Robles: 00:33:42

Uh, between North and South Korea.

Facundo Robles: 00:33:46

Um, but one of the most important things to understand this from an

Facundo Robles: 00:33:50

American perspective is that Latin America doesn't see China as the enemy.

Facundo Robles: 00:33:59

China has a huge advantage in Latin America compared to United States,

Facundo Robles: 00:34:04

is that we don't have history together with the United States.

Facundo Robles: 00:34:10

We have history, and the last century has been pretty tough,

Facundo Robles: 00:34:15

let's say, to put it lightly.

Facundo Robles: 00:34:17

Yeah.

Facundo Robles: 00:34:18

So you have, from a Latin American perspective.

Facundo Robles: 00:34:22

You have the country that was involved in some of the most outrageous, um, events

Facundo Robles: 00:34:30

happening in the last century, coming to you now and telling you, remember, we

Facundo Robles: 00:34:36

share values while at the same time you have a country investing a lot coming

Facundo Robles: 00:34:43

here, not asking for much in return at, at least at first, and in a region that has.

Facundo Robles: 00:34:52

An amount of needs for basic stuff.

Facundo Robles: 00:34:55

Again, basic stuff.

Facundo Robles: 00:34:57

Um, China has been using that leverage.

Facundo Robles: 00:35:03

Um, I think what it should be important, uh, right now, especially

Facundo Robles: 00:35:12

in the US administration, is the role of officials that understand

Facundo Robles: 00:35:18

the relevance of the region.

Facundo Robles: 00:35:20

Politically, ideologically and economically.

Facundo Robles: 00:35:24

Um, secretary Rubio is one of those.

Facundo Robles: 00:35:27

So the amount of pressure that they're gonna be able to put in remembering that

Facundo Robles: 00:35:33

you have below you a whole region, uh,

Facundo Robles: 00:35:40

is gonna, is gonna be really important.

Facundo Robles: 00:35:42

It's gonna be really, really important.

Facundo Robles: 00:35:44

Um, and then the second part of the question was

Facundo Robles: 00:35:47

regarding regional integration.

Facundo Robles: 00:35:50

What I was telling you, uh, at the beginning of the conversation, that

Facundo Robles: 00:35:53

Latin America is usually started as a, as one block, and we say US

Facundo Robles: 00:35:58

Latin America relations, thinking that it's a bilateral relation, um,

Facundo Robles: 00:36:07

you can, you can easily fell into mistakes, uh, because today, Argentina,

Facundo Robles: 00:36:15

for example, has Malay as the president.

Facundo Robles: 00:36:18

But two years before we had Alberto Fernandez as president, it was

Facundo Robles: 00:36:24

the extreme opposite of that.

Facundo Robles: 00:36:26

And what can prevent the opposite of millet coming in three years?

Facundo Robles: 00:36:34

Nothing.

Facundo Robles: 00:36:35

What happens if after Petro in Colombia, you have a far right candidate, nothing.

Facundo Robles: 00:36:42

Mm-hmm.

Facundo Robles: 00:36:42

So all of these, like these swings is very.

Facundo Robles: 00:36:47

Makes very difficult for the region to have a regional

Facundo Robles: 00:36:50

integration in the long term.

Facundo Robles: 00:36:52

Speaking of course, you can see some, uh, attempts of this with the medical

Facundo Robles: 00:36:58

student and the European Union where the European Union, when talking

Facundo Robles: 00:37:02

about who can take advantage of the US taking all of the resources and

Facundo Robles: 00:37:06

attention to the Middle East today.

Facundo Robles: 00:37:08

The European Union can also.

Facundo Robles: 00:37:10

Use this vacuum, as you said, uh, in the region.

Facundo Robles: 00:37:14

And the e um, European Union MER agreement could be an example of that.

Facundo Robles: 00:37:20

And it's really interesting to see the role of, or the relationship between

Facundo Robles: 00:37:24

Lula and Malay in Mercosur today.

Facundo Robles: 00:37:28

Um, because you also have Uruguay.

Facundo Robles: 00:37:31

Uruguay today is much closer to tall Lula.

Facundo Robles: 00:37:37

The president's really closer to to doula, and that all can shift really,

Facundo Robles: 00:37:42

really fast and very drastically.

Facundo Robles: 00:37:47

Uh, so it's really difficult to talk about regional integration, at least is

Facundo Robles: 00:37:52

one of the things that I wish the most.

Facundo Robles: 00:37:56

But being realistic is one of the most difficult things, uh, today and

Facundo Robles: 00:38:00

has been one of the most difficult things for the past couple of decades.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:04

Yeah, I know, and I know that in asking it, it's like I'm

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:06

having a, a Oliva and Fever dream.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:08

Uh, and you know, everybody's wanted it, but it does seem like

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:10

there's a geopolitical imperative maybe that wasn't there before.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:13

And it doesn't have to be political integration.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:16

Um, like what is stopping South America or South American countries from saying,

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:20

okay, let's put aside the ideology.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:22

Why can't we just have a, have a NAFTA for just South America?

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:26

Because if we could just trade with each other more freely and not just

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:29

be a place where, you know, China for, I'm glad that China's investing

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:33

in South America, that's great, but China basically wants commodities.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:35

Like, they're basically like treating it like an imperialistic relationship.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:39

So, okay, you get some money and we take out all of your commodities and if you say

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:43

nice things about Taiwan will cut off the investment flows and will be mean to you.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:46

And we'll do things like that.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:47

So it, it seems to me that, you know, if the United States

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:51

looks weaker maybe than it has.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:53

Towards the region in 50, 60 years.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:56

China is far away, so can't exert itself, but you want some

Jacob Shapiro: 00:38:59

leverage in negotiating with them.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:39:00

You've got, you know, Europe and other parts of the world that

Jacob Shapiro: 00:39:03

are interested in the region for lots of different commodities.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:39:05

Just it feels like.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:39:07

To your point, no matter where you are ideologically on the spectrum like

Jacob Shapiro: 00:39:10

Lula and Melee and Boule and Shane, they should all agree that, hey, we

Jacob Shapiro: 00:39:15

should be trading more with each other.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:39:16

Like if, if the United States is gonna be protectionist and the

Jacob Shapiro: 00:39:18

EU is gonna be protectionist, shouldn't we trade with ourselves

Jacob Shapiro: 00:39:22

and not just send our commodities cheaply to the rest of the world?

Jacob Shapiro: 00:39:25

Because in some sense, the structural problems that Latin America faces

Jacob Shapiro: 00:39:28

is precisely because, you know, the imperial powers invest a bunch of

Jacob Shapiro: 00:39:31

money when they need the resources, and then when they don't need the

Jacob Shapiro: 00:39:34

resources anymore, or when you get the inevitable boom and bust cycles in the

Jacob Shapiro: 00:39:37

commodities, they take their money away.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:39:39

And then you get these big cities that don't make any sense in countrysides

Jacob Shapiro: 00:39:42

that are completely underdeveloped.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:39:44

So, I don't know.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:39:44

I, I get that it's completely unrealistic, but, and it hasn't happened for hundreds

Jacob Shapiro: 00:39:48

of years despite people pushing for it.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:39:50

But there's never been more logic, I think, for at least some kind

Jacob Shapiro: 00:39:53

of minimal trade integration.

Facundo Robles: 00:39:56

I agree with you.

Facundo Robles: 00:39:57

Uh, however, I must say that, uh, analysts usually, and we, analysts

Facundo Robles: 00:40:02

usually, uh, fell into this mistake of thinking or wishing, uh, that this

Facundo Robles: 00:40:09

could happen, um, as if it were easy.

Facundo Robles: 00:40:14

Uh, however, we must remember that when we are proposing or analyzing or

Facundo Robles: 00:40:19

recommending this sort of agreements, c. Uh, we are thinking of it

Facundo Robles: 00:40:27

unilaterally is the coalition that I am proposing that Fado is proposing.

Facundo Robles: 00:40:32

Uh, but it's really difficult when you have different interests, domestic and

Facundo Robles: 00:40:37

foreign interests clashing between two countries that are ideologically opposite.

Facundo Robles: 00:40:42

And also knowing that you have a country, country A and country B,

Facundo Robles: 00:40:47

let's assume that they're opposites.

Facundo Robles: 00:40:49

Ideologically you have.

Facundo Robles: 00:40:51

The population supporting that president at the time?

Facundo Robles: 00:40:55

Maybe not.

Facundo Robles: 00:40:56

Maybe it's like Peru.

Facundo Robles: 00:40:57

But one of the things that I want to, one of the things that I want to, to, to

Facundo Robles: 00:41:01

make clear out, out of this and thinking, uh, like the big picture with all that

Facundo Robles: 00:41:07

is happening in, in the Middle East, um.

Facundo Robles: 00:41:11

I see this crisis as a reminder that Latin America is not

Facundo Robles: 00:41:15

isolated from, from global events.

Facundo Robles: 00:41:18

Um, I generally believe that this is a region that matters

Facundo Robles: 00:41:22

for energy, food, minerals.

Facundo Robles: 00:41:25

Yeah.

Facundo Robles: 00:41:25

And even strategy, uh, countries that can stay institutionally

Facundo Robles: 00:41:30

strong, keep their foreign policy clear and protect their autonomy.

Facundo Robles: 00:41:35

We, as you are talking about the imperialistic.

Facundo Robles: 00:41:40

Because protecting their, their autonomy will have a better shot

Facundo Robles: 00:41:44

at navigating what comes next.

Facundo Robles: 00:41:47

Uh, those that remain fragmented or overly dependent, risk being caught in

Facundo Robles: 00:41:52

the crossfire of, of bigger players.

Facundo Robles: 00:41:56

And I think that in the next few months, we will see whether Latin America can

Facundo Robles: 00:42:00

step into this global moment with more agency, uh, or whether it gets pulled

Facundo Robles: 00:42:06

along with forces that it can't control.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:42:11

I know we're, we're, um, running up on time

Jacob Shapiro: 00:42:13

and I know we've probably only just scratched the surface here.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:42:15

So first of all, I hope that, that you'll come back on, but I

Jacob Shapiro: 00:42:17

want to give you the final word.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:42:19

So, you know, we've talked, we've talked on very broad strokes about

Jacob Shapiro: 00:42:21

some very high level concepts.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:42:24

Um, and hopefully we can drill down more in the future.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:42:26

But what's the one thing, um, or the one country or, or the one insight

Jacob Shapiro: 00:42:30

that we haven't talked about that you wanna leave the listeners with and,

Jacob Shapiro: 00:42:33

and, and, and wanting for more so that they'll come back and listen to us

Jacob Shapiro: 00:42:36

the next time we get a chance to chat?

Facundo Robles: 00:42:40

I will go with a country that we haven't spoken

Facundo Robles: 00:42:44

about, uh, and that is Venezuela.

Facundo Robles: 00:42:48

It will be very brief.

Facundo Robles: 00:42:50

Uh, but Venezuela held presidential legislative elections the past year.

Facundo Robles: 00:42:58

Both were fraud elections, Maduro claimed victory.

Facundo Robles: 00:43:03

Again, the process was widely condemned.

Facundo Robles: 00:43:06

Then in early this year, 2025, they did something pretty provocative, eh?

Facundo Robles: 00:43:11

In the legislative elections, they elected the governor for the

Facundo Robles: 00:43:14

disputed VO region, which Venezuela claims, bad Guyana controls.

Facundo Robles: 00:43:21

Mm-hmm.

Facundo Robles: 00:43:21

Uh, and that move added fuel to a longstanding territorial conflict because

Facundo Robles: 00:43:28

of all of these before the elections, the US Reimposed sanctions in April,

Facundo Robles: 00:43:32

including revoking Chevron's licenses.

Facundo Robles: 00:43:35

But now with oil prices surgeon.

Facundo Robles: 00:43:40

Venezuela still getting more revenue or wiggles will, uh, get more revenue.

Facundo Robles: 00:43:45

It's a temporary relief for their economy.

Facundo Robles: 00:43:47

It also gives Maduro less incentive to reform, but at the same time, we

Facundo Robles: 00:43:53

have to see what happens with the oil reserves, uh, globally because

Facundo Robles: 00:43:58

the US is clearly seeing Guyana as an investment for them to get oil.

Facundo Robles: 00:44:03

Mm-hmm.

Facundo Robles: 00:44:03

So we, we, we, it's very interesting to see what will Maduro do with Guyana.

Facundo Robles: 00:44:08

Knowing what is happening in the Middle East.

Facundo Robles: 00:44:10

Uh, moreover, Venezuela states to Iran make it a key actor, uh, to watch

Facundo Robles: 00:44:17

especially is the, if the global conflict.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:44:22

That.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:44:22

And also, I mean the, and I've, we've talked about this a lot.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:44:25

I mean, the way that Israel is taking it to Iran is also remarkable.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:44:29

And if you think about Iran, as you know, the state that looks very powerful

Jacob Shapiro: 00:44:32

on paper and bears its teeth and says sort all sorts of threatening things.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:44:36

I mean, Venezuela in some ways has a lot of similarities with Iran.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:44:39

And if you're a decision maker.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:44:41

In Brazil or even in Guana.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:44:44

Like I wonder if you look at what Israel is doing to Iran and you say, would it

Jacob Shapiro: 00:44:47

be that hard to do that to Venezuela?

Jacob Shapiro: 00:44:49

I'm sure they don't have an Air Force.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:44:50

I'm sure they don't have air defenses.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:44:52

They certainly don't have a nuclear program.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:44:53

Like if I was Maduro, I would be absolutely terrified by the precedent

Jacob Shapiro: 00:44:58

that is being set by what's happening in the Middle East, and maybe there's not

Jacob Shapiro: 00:45:01

an actor that can take advantage of it.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:45:03

Um, but, but man, like, it, it just seems like bad news for Ven.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:45:06

I mean, I, I get that they get like a temporary bump when it comes to oil,

Jacob Shapiro: 00:45:09

but I would be very, very nervous about what happens next year in the context

Jacob Shapiro: 00:45:13

of what's happening in the Middle East.

Facundo Robles: 00:45:15

If I have to take a guess, because I don't know

Facundo Robles: 00:45:19

Maduro, um, I can see him as one of those people that don't surrender.

Facundo Robles: 00:45:26

Uh, so if following your logic the most.

Facundo Robles: 00:45:34

Worried actors should be the people of Venezuela and not Maduro himself.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:45:39

Hmm.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:45:42

Well that is a grim note to end on, but I, I think we'll just have to

Jacob Shapiro: 00:45:45

put it there 'cause we're out of time and hopefully you'll come back on

Jacob Shapiro: 00:45:47

Kudo, thank you so much for taking the time and, and we'll see you soon.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:45:49

Tell the listeners where they can find information about you or

Jacob Shapiro: 00:45:52

your analysis before I let you go.

Facundo Robles: 00:45:54

Well, thank you Jacob.

Facundo Robles: 00:45:55

Um.

Facundo Robles: 00:45:56

Well, you can see some of my analysis at the, the website

Facundo Robles: 00:46:00

of the, the Wilson Center.

Facundo Robles: 00:46:01

I'm also a, an adjunct professor at the National Defense University here

Facundo Robles: 00:46:06

in Argentina, and also researcher at what is called the sepe.

Facundo Robles: 00:46:13

That is the evidence, the policy evidence center at the University of to.

Facundo Robles: 00:46:18

We are all working on defense energy matters, geopolitical analysis.

Facundo Robles: 00:46:23

So yeah.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:46:24

Perfect.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:46:25

Alright.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:46:25

Cheers.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:46:26

Thank you.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:46:31

Thank you so much for listening to the Jacob Shapiro podcast.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:46:34

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Jacob Shapiro: 00:46:36

By Jacob Mian, and it's in, in many ways, the Jacob Show.

Jacob Shapiro: 00:46:39

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