The tariffs dropped. But the danger didn’t.

In episode 6 of Survive the Tariffs, we unpack the sudden whiplash-inducing shift from 145% to 30% tariffs on Chinese imports — and why that sudden relief could be more of a trap than triumph.

Host Paul Edwick is joined by Wade and Jessica for a no-spin, no-fluff analysis of what business leaders need to be doing right now — not just to respond, but to survive.

You'll learn:

• Why the market of January 19 isn’t coming back — and why some SKUs need to stay dead.
• What to do with stock that landed at the worst possible time.
• How July 8 and August 12 deadlines could still detonate your Q4 strategy.
• Why “renegotiation” isn’t a silver bullet — and what smart importers are really asking for.
• How to spot misalignment across ops, finance, and sales before it costs you.
• Why Apple’s iPhone dodged tariffs — and your cartons of toys didn’t.

Plus: penguin jokes, real numbers, bad bank calls, and one very simple checklist for Monday morning.

This isn’t a recovery story. It’s a survival playbook — and it’s Episode 6 of Survive the Tariffs.

Well, that was unexpected. One minute it's 145% tariffs on China,

next minute, poof, we're at 30%. Time to pop the champagne?

Not so fast.

Welcome to Survive The Tariffs: Episode 6.

I'm Paul Edwick and today, we're unpacking what just happened, what still might happen, and

what in the name of penguins and electronics factories on remote islands you should do next.

I'm joined again by Wade and Jessica, two US voices bringing the business frontlines

into focus. Wade's been through this rodeo before.

Jessica, she's feisty and full of questions, which frankly is what we all need right now.

Thanks, Paul. I'm still trying to decide if this week's tariff news is a relief or just another punch

in the face.

Yeah, tariffs down, stocks up. And I'm still waking up at 3:00 A.M.

wondering what to do about our August shipments.

Okay, let's rewind the chaos. First, there was the original 10%

tariff on China. That was supposed to send a message.

Then it leapt to 25%. Then- then 100%, then- then 145%.

Now, with less than 48 hours notice, we're back down to 30%.

What happening?

And just to make things more confusing,

It's

got a short shelf life

expiring on August 12th.

Right,

and let's not forget this didn't come with a press conference or a roadmap.

It came through a late-night press release that half our legal team didn't see until the next morning.

I had sales assuming we were back to business as usual.

30% sounds manageable, but the CFO's still stuck trying to explain why our landed

cost on a May 13th container just doubled again.

That's where the internal noise starts. Sales sees opportunity, finance sees blood.

And unless someone's clearly steering the ship, you end up with a team reacting in different

directions,

and that's when mistakes happen.

That's the killer. These aren't future orders.

These are shipments we booked in February, manufactured in March, on the water in

April, landed in May. And the tariff you pay depends entirely on which side

of midnight your container hit port.

As

Yep.

And if you're thinking, "Surely, that gets adjusted?" Uh-uh, no, no compensation, no

refund. Just remember, this is the tariff lottery with no second draw.

The mood swings are brutal. It's not just the cost, it's the planning whiplash.

One day I'm modeling pricing at 145%, the next I'm told we're competitive

again. And no one tells you if this is a blip or a baseline.

The stock market sees a 30% headline and throws a party, then turn and ask

business people. They see the fine print and break into a sweat.

And to complicate it all, we're seeing reports, not announcements, just sources close to the

administration that 30% might be the long-term rate.

Trump even said in an interview that 80% of importers didn't need China anyway, and that

30% was a fair baseline. Of course, he also said, "Tariffs are paid by China,"

which as we know is fantasy.

So yeah, welcome to the new normal. 145% is off the

table for now. 30% is on for now. And we've got a little under

90 days before we find out what comes next.

But the headlines only tell half the story.

There's a deeper risk hiding in the calendar. And Jessica, you've been tracking this closely.

Okay, I need to get this off my chest straightaway.

We're now living under two different 90-day deadlines.

And nobody around me even seems to realize it.

The first is for the Liberation Day tariffs, which covers countries like Vietnam, Lesotho,

and almost all of the world's low-cost production zones.

That suspension ends July 8th.

The second is for the so-called reduction from 145% to 30% on

imports from China. That expires August 12th.

So we're playing the old kid's game of hopscotch with sourcing strategies and purchase orders while

trying to guess which of these bombs goes off first.

Hmm.

Yeah, and I'm already getting asked what the post-August scenario looks like by our logistics

team. Crystal ball, anybody?

The problem is we barely know what the pre-August scenario actually is.

This isn't just noise. These two deadlines are freighted with real costs and real consequences.

Exactly. And in any case, the only thing we actually know is that the deadlines are definitive.

There could be agreement before then slapped on at two-days' notice, or the deadline could get pushed

back. Reality is what the negotiators are up to is complicated.

So to me, extra time looks realistic.

And yet when you read the press, it's all vague optimism.

We're told the Vietnam negotiations are progressing well.

The UK has a framework deal,

Uh-huh.

... but it still includes tariffs, even though UK is one of the few countries USA runs a trade

surplus with. Again, most of the media comment on an agreement when, in reality, it's a

framework with big issues still to be agreed.

Like, there's no clarity on sector carve-outs, volume thresholds, or even what counts as

compliance.

It's not a strategy. It's a mood. We're making three- to six-month sourcing decisions on shifting

sentiment. That's not how global supply chains operate,

and it's not how our management have been trained to think.

Too many are out spotting problems without bringing solutions to the table. Agreed?

It's been firefighting all year. And if we're honest, if ops, sales, and finance aren't

working off the same assumptions, then we're not managing chaos, we're manufacturing

it.

And apart from that, we're not hedge funds. We don't get to place bets on market movements minute by minute.

We place orders. They take 90 to 120 days to arrive, and then we live with the

consequences.

Guys, you're both spot on. Two deadlines, zero predictability, but as we

know, underneath are real obligations.

So if I lock in orders now, they could hit just after July 8th or just after August

12th, meaning I might miss today's 30%-rate completely, but no clue on what

I should plan around.It feels like I'm trying to cross a minefield with a calendar

instead of a map.

Which brings us back to why business people need breathing space, because making decisions in this

fog is like... well, it's like trusting a seal to run your routing algorithms.

Just so long as it's not one of those penguins from Heard Island.

I hear they're militant now, just took over the electronics lab.

Yeah, they're probably doing a better job than the guys writing these tariff schedules.

Okay, let's move forwards. The media keeps saying companies are relocating, but from where I'm

sitting, you can't just flip a switch.

Exactly. The fact is deep supply chains don't rebuild overnight.

20 years ago, I saw a Vietnamese textile factory relabeling boxes from China

with a country of origin that was yet another country.

Okay.

That's definitely illegal. There's no escaping that.

And equally definitely, it's something I am opposed to whatever the circumstances, but that was a

workaround then and quite likely it might still be now.

But even if China can ghost export through Vietnam, it can't do it at scale.

These alternate geographies can't absorb full capacity.

Let's talk apparel and accessories. We've got some big numbers coming up.

In total, US imports for this category reached $84 billion in 2024.

And out that, the top 10 countries accounted for 76%.

So we're not just talking about a few big suppliers. This is global concentration.

Exactly. And right at the top are China and Vietnam.

China shipped $16.5 billion. Vietnam followed with 14.9

billion. Together, they make up nearly 40% of total US imports in this space.

And I'm guessing the next few countries drop off pretty fast?

They do. The next eight biggest countries combined just about match China and Vietnam.

That shows you how dominant those two are.

And yet the media makes it sound like you can just pivot to another country like flipping a switch.

Let's test that logic. Say we want to move just 25% of our apparel volume out

of China. Not just you, everyone. If all of us redirected that

25% to Mexico, we'd be shipping more apparel than Mexico currently exports to the

US in total.

So we'd be asking Mexico to more than double its apparel output basically overnight?

Correct. And Mexico is already number six on the list.

You're not finding spare capacity sitting idle at that scale.

And remember, that's before we even consider what might happen on July 8th with the Liberation Day

tariffs.

Let's take a reality check. The idea that you can just shift this kind of volume elsewhere,

that's not short-term supply chain strategy. That's fantasy.

Not unless they're secretly running factories staffed by penguins and seals.

And let's be honest, penguins can't drive forklifts.

Sorry, guys, I need to be serious here.

The CFO says we should be relocating at pace, but you're saying that's a non-starter.

I was beginning to think maybe me or we are slow off the block.

Others are way ahead of us.

Let's flip for a minute.

I want to read you a piece from yesterday's New York Times.

"The tariffs on Chinese goods, which the United States ratcheted up to a minimum

of 145% in early April, brought much trade between the

countries to a standstill. They caused companies to reroute business globally,

importing less from China and more from other countries like Vietnam and Mexico.

They forced Chinese factories to shutter and brought some American importers to the verge of

bankruptcy."

I guess we'll talk supply chain resilience in a while,

but before that, when you read this article, the 145%

tariff introduced six weeks ago has already translated into a massive global

shift of sourcing. And already it's locked in. Containers are already in US ports.

At least that's according to the headlines.

I'm glad in the real world we're taking a more practical line on this.

Our ops team says, "Lock in Q4 now." Finance says, "Wait." Legal says, "Review

incoterms." And I say, "Great, what am I meant to do now?"

This is where leadership matters most, not at the top of the org chart, but in every meeting.

If your teams are running separate agendas, you're not managing the crisis, you're spreading it.

One set of numbers, one plan. Everyone needs to understand what's being prioritized and

why.

Let's start with the basics. A tariff is a cost.

A 30% tariff gets priced in one way or another.

And if that's the rate we're working with for now, then yes, sales and marketing can start to

build a strategy. But let's not assume 30% is permanent.

It could easily jump to 60% or more. And if that happens, your entire market

positioning could fall apart.

Yeah. And if you've got pricing assumptions built around 25%, even 30% can

hurt. At 60%, reality says some of those products aren't just margin-light,

they're a liability.

Exactly. So here's a more grounded framework, not just what to model, but

what to do.

First, we'll take pricing and markets. We have a 30% tariff in force now.

So set provisional pricing on that basis and communicate with your retail channels.

Okay.

Next, have a contingency model at 60%.

If your margin disappears at that rate, don't pretend otherwise.

That cost increase has to show up somewhere, usually in your prices.

Best avoid full catalog recalculations. Hmm, it's too much detail.

Focus on your key SKUs and known volume lines. Use the 80/20 rule.

That way, you don't get bogged down in the weeds.

We've been so tempted to start putting old SKUs back in the lineup,

but honestly, I can't tell if they're viable or just nostalgic.

30% feels like breathing room, but it's not a green light.

Agreed. And don't fall into the trap of thinking that a 30% tariff makes

everything okay again. In episodes three and four, you may recall we talked about culling poor

performers. That advice still stands.

For sure. The market as it existed on January 19th is gone. It's not coming back.

Not now. Not ever.... in all businesses, some products that were

well underwater at 145% are still going to be underwater at

30%.

You need to go back and revisit your assumptions.

But don't let the tariff drop become an excuse to let underperformers sneak back into the

catalog.

We've seen that before. People let SKUs drift back in because they've got history.

But history doesn't pay the duties.

Good point. What didn't work two months ago may still be unworkable now.

You want to be rigorous. The worst thing would be to sleepwalk poor products back onto

the shelves just because they feel familiar.

Sales and marketing should hold prices where they can to preserve margin.

But if the market pushes back, you may have to take the hit. There's no universal rule.

Just stay close to your data and closer to your customers.

Next up, purchasing and lead times. Let's move to purchasing.

In normal times, your fourth quarter orders would already be locked.

But this year, realistically, most aren't, not after the whiplash of

145%. If they're not in place yet, triage immediately.

Place safe quantities now. Don't wait for clarity. It won't come in time.

We're already running late. Lead times haven't changed, but everyone's acting like they've got

breathing room. You don't.

Next, split the risk. You're probably thinking about smaller orders anyway, so structure them that

way. Stagger your volumes. Hedge your timing.

Sounds inefficient, but at least it's survivable.

We used to chase scale efficiencies. Now I'm chasing optionality.

Smaller orders give me more control if tariffs shift again or if we see another surprise

notice with a two-day countdown.

And this is the moment to reopen key negotiations, not just on price but on

flexibility. If you're still working off pre-April terms, your suppliers and freight partners may

not realize how exposed you've become.

I have had one factory still pushing for 60-day payment when we had goods coming into customs under

145%. You've got to reset expectations fast.

For factories, push on payment terms, staggered deliveries and minimums.

For ocean carriers, you're not going to win on base rates but you might get holding options,

adjusted routings or delayed container pull dates.

The goal here isn't to win concessions.

The goal is to shift some risk off your shoulders.

Last up, finance and cash flow.

Let's talk finance first. Thinking about getting fresh credit right now? Good luck.

Banks are tightening. And unless you're sitting on perfect covenants, it's a non-starter.

We asked our bank to increase our facility last month. The answer was a flat no.

They're not even pretending to review things anymore. It's all about risk-off.

And if you're wondering about insuring against tariff exposure or taking out trade risk cover,

most of those policies are either unavailable or priced for big corporates.

For small to mid-sized importers, it's not a serious option right now.

We looked into it too. Our broker said, "Sure, if you're moving $500 million a year,

maybe."

So yeah, not helpful.

So here's what actually matters, what's practical.

Weekly cashflow planning is mandatory. Not quarterly, not monthly, weekly.

Factor in realistic landed cost projections even if it hurts.

Don't bet on best case tariffs.

And build in lag time on payments and start thinking about internal lead times as part of your cash

strategy.

Pull all that together, this is the time to be cautious. It's not the time for big gambles.

Recall that old saying, "Fortune favors the brave." It couldn't be more misplaced for

importers in 2025.

Yeah, don't assume your usual terms will save you.

Everything needs to be tested against 60% tariff scenarios and lower Q4 sales, just

in case.

Put like that, I can see we've been treating this like an old school strategy exercise, but it's really

survival mode. Plan every decision on the basis we have to survive first, worry about

optimizing later.

And don't obsess about competitors. You won't know who's sinking until they've already gone under.

What you can do is stay liquid, stay alert, and keep your options open.

Everyone wants to talk about 2026 and beyond, but our only objective that matters now

is making it to January 1st, 2026 standing upright with a business that

still has options.

That's it. Forget five-year plans. This is about the next six months.

Tight planning, calm decisions and keeping your team focused.

Right, let's make this practical. When you walk into the office Monday morning, here are your first five

moves.

First, review your fourth quarter orders and pull up everything scheduled to land after the July

8th or August 12th deadlines. Tag anything exposed to tariff risk.

And if you haven't re-reviewed your PO list in the last 72 hours, most likely, it's already

stale.

Two,

call your top three suppliers.

Ask about flexibility, not just on price but on staggered shipments,

extended terms and container holds.

Show them you're recalculating risk and see if they'll meet you halfway.

Three, do a cashflow health check. Get your finance team to run a 60%

tariff scenario, not in theory, but on your current landed cost structure.

Then ask, "What does that do to our cash position in 90 days?"

Fourth, pick five SKUs to challenge.

Choose the ones with thin margins or inconsistent sell-through.

What happens to them at 30%? At 60%? Do they stay or are they quietly

bleeding your business?

Five,

sync your leadership team.

Sales, ops and finance need to be working from the same forecast, the same assumptions and the

same risk thresholds. If you don't know what your own teams believe, fix that first.

This is what I needed. Not just strategy, but a plan for the next five working

days.

We'll keep rethinking, but this gives us a place to restart from.

We don't need perfect answers. We need shared assumptions and fast moves.

That's how you survive a policy storm.

And since we've laid out what to do Monday, let's be blunt about what not to do.

These are the five traps that could undo everything faster than a tariff change.

One-Don't bring the catalog back to life.

If a product wasn't working at 145%, it doesn't automatically belong

now. Don't use 30% as an excuse to revive dead weight.

Two, don't chase phantom suppliers.

Remember that factory in another country promising to handle your volume next week? Probably not real.

Don't waste quarter two on ghosts.

Three, don't trust market whispers.

Ignore anyone saying tariffs are done.

Until you see a signed document with dates and duties, assume nothing.

Four, don't freeze your decision-making. Inaction is a decision.

If you're holding off on all POs waiting for certainty, you're not buying time.

You're losing control.

Five, don't assume your competitor is getting through this fine.

They've gone quiet because they're scrambling too. Focus on your own playbook.

Survival isn't a group sport.

That last one hits. I've spent the last few weeks assuming we were the slow ones,

but the silence from others is starting to look a lot like panic.

Exactly. Don't judge strength by volume. Judge it by readiness.

Let's break down a basic truth that keeps getting ignored in public debate.

Most tariffs are charged on the FOB cost.

That's the factory price before the goods even hit the ship.

So if your product costs $100 from the supplier and the tariff is 30%, you're

paying $30 in duty. That's on top of freight, insurance, and all the rest.

And let's be clear. The Chinese factory isn't paying that. The importer is.

That's us.

Tariffs don't hit back in Guangzhou. They hit in Columbus, Ohio.

And for small to mid-size importers, there's no safety net.

No one's handing us rebates or retroactive credits.

You pay the tariff at the point of customs clearance. And if you guessed wrong on timing, too bad.

But here's where it gets even more frustrating. Not everyone's playing by the same rules.

Roughly 25% of all US imports from China are in consumer electronics.

Think smartphones, laptops, and tablets.

These categories, led by companies like Apple, have already been exempted from the

145% tariff. Quietly carved out, conveniently avoided.

Right. Apparently an $800 price hike on a top-end iPhone was too much for the

administration to stomach.

But sticking that same proportionate increase on toys, totally fine.

No carve outs for us.

But to be fair, those electronics still have the 20% from February and March.

General goods pay this as part of their 30%. So the playing field has been leveled.

If you can think of a 30% tariff as being level.

It's the same logic we've seen before.

If your sector has lobbyists, visibility, and big tech stock exposure, you're

strategic. If not, you're just collateral.

And let's not forget autos, agriculture, steel, all with their own exceptions or phase-ins.

But everyday importers moving apparel, homeware, toys, FMCG, you're the

ones shouldering the volatility.

It's maddening. The businesses keeping shelves full and Q4 ticking.

We're the ones being told to just absorb it, whatever the gyrations in policy.

And when we pass that cost on, we're accused of inflation. It's lose-lose.

So when you hear politicians saying tariffs are a tool to bring back jobs, remember which jobs

in which industries are being protected and which ones are just being priced out of existence.

Think of the Monday checklist as your restart plan. The Survival Radar?

That's your weekly discipline. So let's finish the practical part of today with your Survival Radar.

Five signals to watch for every single week between now and January.

One,

inventory at risk.

Flag anything still sitting in your warehouse that came in at 145% tariffs.

Review pricing weekly. Decide, hold, push, or mark down.

Two, cash pressure points. Look ahead 90 days.

What bills hit if the 30% becomes 60% again? No assumptions.

Pressure test the cash.

Third, vulnerable SKUs. Which products are high volume but low margin?

These are your danger zones if tariffs climb or if demand softens.

Fourth, supplier readiness. Are your current factories still operating under pre-March assumptions?

Have they confirmed capacity, delivery, and terms at these new rates?

Five, internal misalignment.

Have you had one good cross-department meeting this week?

If sales, ops, and finance aren't synced, fix that first and no excuses.

This gives me a structure. It's not just reacting to noise.

It's watching the right signals.

Exactly. If you're checking these five every week, you're running a business.

If you're not, be clear, you're gambling.

It's time to bring this all together.

A tariff reduction to 30% isn't a solution.

It's a pause, a tactical reset. And if you're making big bets based on

it holding, you're playing a dangerous game.

Right now, flexibility is more valuable than any single cost saving.

Lock in where you have to. Delay where you can.

And don't overcommit to a future that keeps rewriting itself.

You have to stay realistic.

Model your pricing with today's rates, but sketch a plan B at 60%.

If you can't survive that shift, don't pretend it couldn't happen.

And planning, it has to be frequent.

Weekly cash flow reviews, fast feedback loops from your sales team, inventory you can

move, not just store. Adaptation isn't optional.

It's also a time for caution. Avoid inventory bloat. Protect cash.

Don't assume your competitors are healthy just because they're quiet.

This isn't about thriving. It's about enduring.

If you're still upright on January 1st, 2026 with customers, cash, and

confidence, you've done what most won't.

And it's not just about surviving personally.

It's about keeping your team confident, focused, and pulling in the same direction.

A panicked company doesn't make it to January.

The future is uncertain, but your survival doesn't have to be.

Adjust fast, decide deliberately, and above all, stay alert.

Anyone telling you there's a clear plan right now is selling fantasy, not strategy.

We're not out of the woods yet, but we've just got better boots for the terrain.

This was Episode 6 of Survive the Tariffs.

Catch up on Modular 1 through 5 for deep dives into pricing, sourcing, logistics, and

leadership under fire.

And don't miss the next one.

We're tearing into Q4 planning when Q2 still feels like triage.

Subscribe on Spotify, Apple, wherever you get your shows, or on our own site at

survivethetariffs.captivate.fm.

Until next time, stay sharp.

Remember, even though tariffs may change again, survival is the only positive strategy

in town.