Welcome to Fix-It Friday, the podcast segment that simplifies financial strategies to help you make smarter decisions. Hosted by Jonathan Blau, President and CEO of Fusion Family Wealth, each episode dives into common biases and challenges that impact our financial choices—and how to fix them.

In this episode, Jonathan explores why tuning out the Federal Reserve’s every move might be the smartest decision for long-term investors. He breaks down how the constant focus on the Fed—interest rate predictions, market speculation, and news headlines—can derail sound investment strategy. Instead, he shares how disciplined investors can build wealth by staying focused on fundamentals rather than short-term noise. This week’s discussion also touches on ambiguity bias and its impact on financial decision-making, highlighting how cognitive biases can lead investors to favor certainty over potential higher returns.

What You’ll Learn in This Episode:

Why focusing too much on the Federal Reserve can lead to reactive decision-making

How market timing and media narratives distort investor confidence

The difference between real financial data and distracting “Fed chatter”

Actionable steps to stay focused on your investment strategy

Want to make smarter financial decisions grounded in clarity and confidence? Subscribe and share the Crazy Wealthy Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/@CrazyWealthyPodcast

Timestamps

00:00 Intro: Welcome to Fix It Friday

00:40 The obsession with Fed predictions

02:00 Why following the Fed can derail your investment plan

03:15 What investors should actually focus on

05:00 How disciplined investors stay ahead of the noise

07:30 Jonathan’s key advice for staying the course

08:30 Closing thoughts

Key Takeaways

The Fed’s decisions impact markets—but not your long-term financial plan.

Overreacting to headlines can cause unnecessary portfolio changes.

Consistency and patience are the investor’s greatest assets.

Focus on fundamentals, not forecasts, to build real wealth.

About the Host

Jonathan Blau is the President and CEO of Fusion Family Wealth, a fiduciary wealth management firm he founded in 2013 to help families achieve clarity, confidence, and purpose with their money. With a deep focus on behavioral finance, Jonathan teaches investors how to recognize emotional biases and make evidence-based decisions that support long-term success.  A sought-after speaker in wealth management, Jonathan previously held senior roles in tax and estate planning at Arthur Andersen. He holds a BS in Finance, an MS in Taxation, and an MBA in Accounting. Based on Long Island, Jonathan is active in the local business community, supports organizations such as the Middle Market Alliance and Sunrise Day Camp, and enjoys boating with his family.

LinkedIn – Jonathan Blau

Fusion Family Wealth Website

Crazy Wealthy Podcast

Disclosure

Investment advisory services may not be suitable for every investor or portfolio. Neither Fusion’s investment advisor registration status nor any amount of prior experience or success should be construed as a guarantee of specific results or satisfaction if Fusion is engaged or continues to be engaged to provide investment advisory services.

Fusion is neither a law firm nor an accounting firm, and none of its services should be interpreted as legal or accounting advice. No portion of this content should be viewed as a guarantee that any client or prospective client will experience a particular outcome or level of results through Fusion’s services.

For additional information regarding Fusion’s investment advisory services and fees, please refer to our current written disclosure brochure, available upon request or online at www.fusionfamilywealth.com.

A copy of Fusion's current written disclosure brochure discussing our advisory [00:00:15] services and fees is available upon request or at www.fusionfamilywealth.com.

Was the stock market increased by about 25% a year with a historic run and the market, uh, when Greenspan made those comments, the s and p 500 was about 7 35. [00:01:00] And, uh, today stands at 6,600. So let's take that as a lesson. To tune out Fed chairs whose mandate is low unemployment and low inflation, and [00:01:15] they know nothing more than you or I about the future direction of the stock market.

And more to share fresh perspectives on making sound decisions that maximize your wealth. And now here's your host.

Be, uh, very highly valued. Um, that hearkens back to a time in December of 96 when one of his predecessors, Alan Greenspan, uh, re referred to the market as, as being irrationally exuberant. [00:02:30] So let's explore that and let's see if, if, uh, the, the current fed chairs warnings about a high market indicate that investors ought to be considering reducing their exposure to stocks.

One thing about the future, one, the defining characteristic about it is that there [00:03:15] are no facts about it. Somebody who's smart and well educated and smart sounding doesn't have one more fact about the future than either you or I. So it's important to remember that. The second thing to, to understand, we call, we call this also the [00:03:30] illusion of predictive value.

An investor is going to see many recessions, bear markets, uh, terrorist attack type, uh, surprises. Um. One in a hundred year pandemics, things that, that, uh, that, uh, are [00:04:15] unexpected happen all the time. And so what we need to do is we need to realize all of those things fall into a category that I refer to as the noise and the signal is earnings.

So the market is, is often at new highs In the, um, 1,188 month period since [00:05:00] 1926, the market was at an all time high. About a third of the time, 363 of those months were, were in an all time high. In just the last two years, in 2024, the market hit close to 60 [00:05:15] all time highs, and this year we hit close to 30 all time highs.

It's very important to [00:06:00] accept that truth because, because it is a truth. We're always looking for certainty and, and it's a human nature bias that we, that we, we can't fight. And, and, and it's, um, something called hindsight bias. We, we like to kind of know the past [00:06:15] and knowing the past makes us believe the illusion that somehow, because we know the past, the future will be more predictable.

Today it's 6,600. It stands 73 times higher. There were many, many, many all time highs since I was born. I, if I had, um, 10 friends in the room and you could use their fingers and toes to count 'em, you still [00:07:00] wouldn't be able to get to the number of all time highs in my lifetime. Uh, but, but the, the s and p went up 73 times, so a million invested dentist is 73 million and inflation is up 10 times to buy what a million bought back then.

Uh, there, there were about, um, eight, eight or so bear markets, meaning the market went down 20% or more. There were, uh, probably a similar amount, eight or nine recessions. [00:07:45] And, and, um, and by the way, of the bear markets that, that I just mentioned, the eight or nine that occurred since my birthday, um, in nineteen seventy three, four, one of them caused the market to have [00:08:00] in 2000 to oh two, the market halved again.

What does one have to do to make 10% a year, I should say, have the high probability of achieving those kinds of returns? What they need to do is they, they need [00:08:45] to, um, buy their portfolio elect to reinvest in, in the dividends and not look at it and react to it. And that's all they needed to do. But most investors don't do that.

Uh, so when I was born, the earnings for the SP were $5 in change. Today they're $230 through all of the events I just mentioned, and the bear [00:09:30] markets and the recessions, they went from five. And why do they do that? Because the companies that we buy are relentlessly responding to any kind of challenges rationally.

Make sure that emotionally you understand what drives us to make these poor decisions and, and then financially be prepared by having two to three years living expenses outside of [00:10:15] stocks that protects you against what's called sequence of return risk. In other words, if you're investing for multi-decade and you're gonna make 10% a year, likely over the multi-decade period, we don't know what next year will be.

So as long as we have two to three years living expenses, we protect against that [00:11:00] potential. And one word I'll say on the economy, uh, many big firms like to roll out their economists and tell you what the, the economy's about to do. They don't know any more than you know about what the economy's about to do.

Fix it Friday. Look forward to seeing you next time. You can catch us. On, uh, [00:11:45] all of your favorite podcast venues, as well as the Crazy Wealthy podcast website and the fusion family wealth.com website.

Disclaimer: The previous podcast by Fusion Family Wealth, LLC Fusion was intended for general information purposes only. No portion of the podcast serves as the receipt of or is a substitute for personalized investment advice from Fusion or any other investment professional of your choosing. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific [00:12:30] investment or investment strategy or any non-investment related or planning services, discussion or content will be profitable.

Be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation. Neither fusion's investment advisor registration status, nor any amount of prior experience or success should be construed that a certain level of results or satisfaction will be achieved if Fusion is engaged or continues to be engaged to provide investment advisory services.

To provide investment advisory services, a copy of Fusion's current written disclosure brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is [00:13:00] available upon request or at www.fusionfamilywealth.com.