Welcome back to Lending Leadership: The Mortgage Pros where we tackle the real challenges, pivots, and wins in today’s mortgage industry.

In this episode, we’re digging deep into a hot topic that’s on every loan originator’s mind: the reality check on the long-awaited refinance (refi) boom. Dave Holland and Tom Mills break down what these new market predictions mean for your business plan, why it’s time to stop waiting on refis, and how to adapt for sustained success.

Key Takeaways:

1. The Refis Aren’t Coming—Time to Pivot: The long-awaited refinance boom isn’t materializing this year, and likely won’t until late 2025 or beyond. Relying on a sudden influx of refi deals to save your business is a risky bet.
2. Focus on What You Can Control: Your daily activity, the quality of your outreach, and nurturing your referral sources are more important than ever. Relentlessly contact your realtor partners, relationship sources, and database, and focus on sustainable business instead of waiting for a market shift.
3. Sharpen Your Skills and Embrace Change: Now is the time to double down on your learning, adapt to industry changes, and refine your value proposition. The market is evolving fast, and standing still means falling behind—rookie LOs who hustle are taking market share.
4. Diversify Product Offerings and Networks: Expand into less-traditional loan products like non-QM or standalone seconds to help fill the business gap, and reach beyond realtors to financial planners, accountants, and other professionals who can refer business.
5. Mindset and Personal Wellbeing Make All the Difference: Surviving tough seasons requires controlling your mindset, supporting your mental health, and building a solid routine. Take the time to reassess, write a new business plan (even if it’s just for the next six months), and honestly evaluate what’s working—and what needs to change.

If you’re feeling stuck or in need of a sounding board, we’re here. We offer leadership and coaching calls for anyone wanting to retool their strategy, no strings attached. Drop your questions, send us your episode ideas, and let’s tackle the second half of the year together.

Let’s get after it—the market may not deliver the boom you hoped for, but opportunity abounds for those ready to grow, adapt, and lead.

Robert, Tom, and Dave

folks, news flash. The refi boom you've been waiting for might not be here.

I'll be here 2025 at least. Maybe not even the first couple quarters of 26.

It might not come this year. So we're going to hit you with some cold hard truth. I'm Tom Mills. Thanks for joining us for another episode of Lending Leadership. The mortgage pros have Dave Holland here as my co guest today. My partner Dave and Robert Fillyaw is generally with us. Not going to be attending today, but we, we saw a recent change in the NBA prediction of interest rates and where they'll be at the end of 2025. Certainly not in a place that people expected them to be.

Even now, I know a lot of people, you know, really had banked on, you know, a certain amount of refinance business to try to hit their business plan, their goal for the year. So it's time to pivot a little bit. You know, I know we talked on an episode about how to prepare for the refi boom, but today we're going to talk about how to prepare for the rebuy boom. The refi boom. That's, that's not, that's not going to happen. Not by any means do I think we won't see a refi boom. So Dave, I mean, we could start it off, talk about the good, the bad, and you know, for me, the good. Initially my thought is, you know, especially if you're thriving now, the longer between the boom, the longer the gap, the, the bigger the boom.

Still, you know, helping customers every single month, that interest rates into the high sixes or so just, just leads lends them more opportunity when, when we get there eventually. What's your thoughts, man?

Well, you know, a couple things I've said since early 2022. We're, we're baking a big refinance pie. I thought it'd be here by now, as did pretty much everyone in the news flashes. No one's coming to save you. You know, you have to participate in your own rescue. Hoping to dream of a refi market is never a good business strategy. You know, I think we can all take into account 10% of your business being refinances, but that's not going to happen this year. You always get divorces, you always get cash out refinances.

I think as loan officers, we talk to rlos about it. You got to show up differently. You can't hold that hope for a refinance market. And we did a podcast in April kind of prepping for the refi market. Thought it would be here and it's not here and it's probably not going to come this year unless something dramatic happens.

It's really hard to base your own personal goals off of things that you can't control. You know, and like you said, people waiting on the, the refi pie. I mean you, if you didn't have the mentality that it's not the refi pie but, but the icing on the cake is, is how you looked at refis. You, you're probably a little disappointed about the pace of your year and maybe the new forecast that, that might, that might be sit a little longer. Not just, not just originators. I think, you know, a lot, a lot of companies are sitting in that, in that space. It's been a really, the last 12 months has been a really tough time to stay stagnant. You know, I think, I think some, some people have because they've held out hope to that normalized market which is, you know, 20, 25, you know, refi normalized, you know, to booms of 35 and 40.

But you know, I think there's been a lot of help, hope held out for that and now some disappointment and, and now it's like I gotta start doing things differently, you know. Is it too late? I don't think so, but you're definitely behind eight ball.

It's never too late. I don't want to say new normal because I just hate that euphemism. But I mean this is maybe what our industry looks like. We chatted about large servicers capturing a lot of that refi market when it does come. We are preparing for that. You got to show up differently. You got to be focused on the purchase business. And it's never too late.

Right? Some of our top loan officers here don't depend on the refi market and don't even chase it when it's. They're always focused day in, day out. The daily disciplines, talking with the realtor partners, the regular referral sources, their database. So a lot of top los don't even think about a refi market. They just focus on what's going to be here every single year.

In addition to rates, you know, what are, is there any other thing, you know, aside from maybe rates not trending this way? Let's say rates trend in below, you know, six. I mean, is there any other factors that you see may let me make that rate, you know, refi market a little more challenging? It has been in the past for us.

I mean, we'll see what happens with home values. I mean, if, if home values do take a little dip, a lot of people bought at the top. You know, maybe the appraisal's not there if you can't get a property inspection waiver. You know, if we slide into the recession, there's going to be people, you know, with dinged up credit a little bit more and employee may not be as good. So, you know, I think we've said it numerous times, this refinance market or boom is not going to look like what it looked like in the past. It's going to be more challenging. We're not, we're never going to feast like we did in the, in half of 19 and 2021. That reality is not coming back.

So we got, we got to look at what's sustainable and any refinances you get are just a little bit of gravy.

Yeah, yeah, it's got to be the mentality. But, you know, let's, let's say that, let's say, you know, you, your goal was to do 20 million because you thought you would, you got such this massive database and you thought, you know, you're going to be able to hit them all and you're going to do 20, $12 million of, of refi business. And here you are, it's June and you're 5 million closed through the year. You got a half of a year left and what you're hoping for is not coming with some quick actions like you're starting tomorrow. You weren't doing all these things right. Dave, let's hit that a little bit.

I mean, I guess what I would do is I would look at every realtor that I've worked with the past 18, 24 months, call them, re. Engage them. They may not remember you. And there's some strategies around that. There's a, you know, I'm cleaning up my office, throwing away old files and I, I had this file with a sticky note we worked on, you know, 45 W. Main St. The Jones file in April 2024 and. Hey, hey, Tom.

I wanted to connect. I never did. Here I am. I mean, there's a better script than that. We don't have to get into it, but I would do that. I'd hit my database. You know, I'd re. Engage my database hard, ask them for referrals, thank them for their past business, see how they're doing.

There's a lot of strategies that you can get up and running. It's, it's not going to happen in 30 days. Any. I've always thought anything we action we take now bears, bears fruit. Within 90 days, you'll get some quick wins. You need a plan. You need to get with your sales manager or mentor and put your foot on the gas. Just hoping the phone ring, you know, is hope is never a good strategy.

And like I said in the beginning, you have to participate in, in your own rescue. No one's going to do it for you. The market's too competitive and there's too many other LOs and companies that want to eat your lunch.

Yeah.

What do you, what do you think some quick action steps are, Tom, that you could take like now?

Well, I think, you know, number one, you mentioned the database. I mean, don't, don't, you know, don't say, well, the refund market's not coming. I'm turning my sites, you know, off of my database. You, you've got time in your day to, you know, add too, but you, you really still need to nurture that because while you said maybe the rates aren't necessarily driving refinances today, consumer debt is and, and life is, you know, changes in, in life, you know, divorce, Earth, you know, things like that is what's, what's driving a lot of today's refinances needs, cash needs. I think it's important to stay on that database and, and really know that you're in front of your people. You can assess, you know, where, when, when to kind of when that opportunity is there with each of your customers. But very importantly, you know, also get other contacts of people that you can nurture, follow up with people that may be interested in buy selling, refinancing in the next year or so. You know, in the end of the day, just, just contact.

I mean, you know that I think this is always a, always a contact sport, you know, so you got to pick up your contacts. But it's not, it's not also, it's also that simple. You know, I think you have to pick up your contact, but it's not contact alone. You know, it's really about, you know, what is it you're, you're selling, you know, what is your proposition? What is it you're saying you're scripting with your customers with your, you know, with, with realtors, with prosperity prospective referral partners. You know, I, I think what a lot of people have done is taken a step back, you know, and really I've seen a lot of people sharpen up and in the last 12 months become better than I'VE ever seen them. And I think you have to do that along the way too. You have to recognize you're still a student, the game has changed on you a little bit. And, and, and embrace, embrace every aspect of learning still.

Well, and something that we talked about before we got on today, there's still kind of this refi boom hangover. All right. You know, the refinance boom ended about three and a half years ago. You can't live in the past, right? You can't say, I was a 40 million dollar producer in 2021 and I'm doing X right now. It's gone. That was not you, that, that was the market. Right. So it's been three and a half years.

It's dead, it's buried, We've been in mourning. Let's move on and let's face this together. And like you said, everyone needs to sharpen up a little bit. You can't be status quo. You can't do what you're doing. In the purchase market in 2018 and 2019, new loan officers have come in, right. That have entered the business. They're hungry, they want to see success.

They're more aggressive. I mean, you know, we have a couple, couple rookies within our organization that are absolutely killing it because they don't know any better. They don't know that they shouldn't be calling every single agent. They don't know they should be not calling the top producer in the market. They're not intimidated by that because they don't know what they don't know. And there's a freshness of that. So you know, I'm not saying everyone's got to reinvent themselves because people have really good instincts and habits. But you can't, we can't hang on to the past anymore because that market's never coming back.

That was it, that, that, that was a, that was a one time shot.

Yeah, you're right. And I think, you know, because of that and the challenges that we have ahead, it's important your organizations you know, thinking about how will it evolve and, and you know, handle the next boom that eventually comes. Fortunately for us, you know, a lot of our, a lot of our focus has been and a lot of our time spent has been on our tech stack, you know, and implementation. That really may work out really well for us if this thing delays out, you know, a little bit longer because we'll then be able to manufacture them differently. And that's what's really important about the refi booms or, or even when it's 20 and 30% is, is that you, you, you gotta be able to move that business through and give great service to it but, but never take like your focus off. Like if you're, you know, if you went, you know, from spending X amount of time working on your purchase business and you cut that down at all, it's, it, you know, I think that's going to be a bad move. It'll be, it'll be funny when we start seeing the memes out there from realtors about how they don't, how they're not getting called by originators for, for cups of coffee anymore but, but it's real, they recognize that. And you know, I, I think, I think one thing that we've all learned over the course of the last couple years is if you, you take the, the foot off the gas has an impact for, for longer than, than you would like it to.

You know, it's a lasting impact that makes it, when you want to put your foot back on, you really got to get a, a, you know, a heavy boot because you're going to need to, you're going to lay into it.

Absolutely. And something that we've leaned into, and I know this isn't a news flash, any of our listeners is leaning into new products and new ideas and something we've embraced more and more and I think I've done five and I was really resistant. But doing more non qm, there's a lot of opportunity out there which I didn't fully realize. We've had a lot of internal discussion. I was in the mindset now we don't need to offer non qm, but we do it's a good product. Once you learn it, it's not bad. So there's other opportunities with investors and other people who can't be helped in traditional agency loans that you know, we, we can make some money off of and increase your business opens up new doors with Realtor partners. So that's something we, you know, we don't have to dive deep into but that's something we've been focused on is diversifying our product offering.

And, and I, I couldn't agree more. And, and one of those things now that we offer and do quite a bit of is, is standalone seconds and, and I always had that, that feeling before like you know, we don't want you to do 60, 70, 80 thousand dollar loans. There's no money in that. That's not worth the time. The reality of it is is, you know, I think our best originators out there work their database. The best part of their job is to manage their debt, you know, and, and, and properly, you know, advise them on how best to manage that debt. And we, we talked about consumer debt that's out there and we recognize that what is holding a lot of people back from refinancing today isn't that they don't have equity that pull cash and do, you know, do debt consolidation and it's that they don't, they don't have the appetite to go from the you know, 2, 3% interest rate to the potential 7% of the cash out refinances today. So you know, don't be afraid to, to take that, you know, 50, 60, $80,000 HELOC that you really don't make a lot on it.

They're easy to get done today number one. But number two I think is the ultimate, it, it just, it's the next step towards the refinance. I mean it's only a matter of time. If you're properly talking that customer properly working your database, imagine your debt that they're gonna, they're gonna combine the two at some point rates are gonna be to where that blended rate and whatever other their needs are, whether it's year, two years, three years down the road, it's gonna make a lot more sense than it makes to them today. Would you agree with that?

I, I would. And there's also an added benefit there too when you're working with the customer. It gives you the opportunity to ask for referrals and ask for more business. So there's that you can we generate the most business off our clients? We certainly generate business in our database. Right. But we also generate business while they're active in our pipeline. So there's an added benefit of that you're getting in front of another client. You can generate business off of that as well too.

So you know, we had some questions from listeners from about this, some of this topic. So kind of, kind of want to get into that. You know, a couple questions. I keep telling myself the market will bounce back, but I'm not sure I believe it anymore. What now? I mean we kind of covered it but the what now is you need to focus, you know, on tangible results and hit the purchase business because that's business that's always going to be there. And the next question kind of follow up.

Tom, go macro on that, go macro on that. Focus. I mean how many contacts you need to have a week? You know, what, what do you need to do to output? You Know, we all know that you got to pull, you know, 10 people's credits to produce, you know, roughly about three loans. So, you know, what are you going to do to get 10 credit pulls, you know, 10 more, 10 more, 20 more, 30 more, whatever that, that goal of yours is, really get those metrics broken down and focus on them on a daily and a weekly basis.

Yeah, I mean, you know, that's certainly an episode we can do, is kind of reverse engineer your goals in what a great life looks like for you financially. But yeah, it's how many people you contact a day, how many calls you make, how many apps you take, and then kind of, you know, back it up from there, which is kind of the next question. I built my business on refis. I'm not even sure how to prospect for purchases. I mean, that, that's a big, that's a, that's a massive question. Right. You want to touch on it real quick, Tom?

Yeah, I mean, you know, I remember when I did in my, my career, it was just so, it was such, such a long time ago and it was, it was, it's a mental, mental switch that you're going to make a commitment towards something that's a, it's a longer game, you know, when you're refi. Focused, you know, even when it's not a great refi market, it's, you know, it's a quick cycle, you know, so it's a different, a different cycle with, with purchases. It, it's just about relationships when it comes down to purchases, you know, unless you've got Buco dollars to spend to compete with massive aggregators out there to try to grow your purchase business. I don't, I think a lot of people get mistaken that they can go and spend a thousand bucks on leads a month and, and, and they're going to pick up a couple of deals. I, I don't believe that for, for a second. I think you actually will take your time, which is what fosters that business, you know, So I, I think it's just, you know, who, who do you want to build relationships with? And, and that doesn't, as, you know, Dave, it doesn't have to be all realtors. I mean, there's, there's a lot of other avenues for business out there. Realtors is our main primary avenue and it is that of most, you know, producing originators.

But it's not the only way. I know, I know people that barely work with realtors that close over a hundred million dollars a year.

Yeah. Financial planners aren't called on a lot by mortgage professionals, divorce attorneys, insurance agents, so accountants. There's a lot of people you can get business on besides, you know, besides realtors. But that is a whole different question. You know, someone who's moving from strictly refis in the purchases. You got to start from scratch. You got to get with either a coach or, or you got to get with your sales leaders and say, hey, here's where I'm at. I need to start.

What are the action steps I need to take this week, this month, the next quarter? What are some milestones I need to be hitting you? You need a legitimate plan.

Yeah, I'm curious how many people won't make a plan to move forward? And you know what? Those I don't even know what held to be true. You know, all the statistics we heard in a year of animalist originators that didn't renew. But I, I wonder if this longer last of, of higher rates, you know, leads us to some more staggering numbers. You know, in, in January again, it.

Has to, at the end of the day, there's some people that were holding on, you know, by a thread, and I hate to say it, maybe it's some time. Time for some people to exit the business.

Yeah, yeah, for sure. I mean it, you know, I, there's some people that the business has passed them by. You know, it's evolved, it's changed. And some people don't adapt to change and, and we've seen more change in the last couple years in this industry than, than the last, you know, 10 preceding it combined. I, I would say so. It takes that ability to adapt and change and, and try new things and again, you know, step outside your comfort zone and look for those that have done this long enough that are, you know, maybe towards like the retirement. Yeah, I, I, you know, you've seen a lot more people retire this year if they've prepared themselves financially well and they don't want to change and adapt and they can retire and live the life they want. And you know, that's not a bad way to sell off time to sail off into the sunset for us that, you know, have 20 years ahead.

You know, you have to make some assessments. Am I going to change or am I going to change industries? You know, because I, I, I think that it's going to take that regardless. Even when we see a boom, we're going to see another time like this, more challenging times than this. You know, it's time to embrace change now.

So, you know, one last question. How do I resent when I'm mentally checked out, but financially can't afford to quit. Double down on your efforts. Right. You know, some people aren't going to like to hear this, but if you're not working 12 hours a day, if you're not learning, if you're not listening to podcasts, if you're really not all in, I mean, that's tough. You know, it's, it's a hill to climb. But you got to wake up every morning ready to attack and improve your business, improve your mindset, improve what you're doing and constantly be learning. So, you know, you kind of got to reach deep within which, which isn't for everyone.

It's. And not everybody wants to do it.

You got to build your self confidence, you know, on down to little things like, you know, your self talk, how you talk about yourself, you know, the positivity of your talk. Is it positive, is it negative talk? Is it glass half full, glass half empty? Because you got to change that immediately. You know, let's, let's do this. Dave, we got. Oh, we got one more question, actually, I think this was a good one to take on what it. What's one mindset shift that helped each of us through a hard season in this business? So let's think back to some of our hard seasons, mindset shifts that really, really kind of sent you in another direction. Because a lot of times it is those challenging seasons that you, you really, you really become your best.

You know, with me, you know, it's, it's controlling what I can control. I control the control, boss. I know that's cliche, I get it. But my activity, what I'm doing day in and day out, right? That, that's all I can control. If the activity is not there, if I'm just going to bury my head in the sand and not go after, then I know the results aren't going to follow. So I've always focused on what I can control, which is my activity. The calls I make, the meetings I take, you know, constantly having my foot on the gas, that was kind of my mind shift. You know, it just kind of happened the last couple of years too.

Again, coming off the hangover of the boom, that's what I have focused on. Hey, my business is down too, right? Everyone's business is down. But control what I can control with my activity.

I'll tell you, man, I, you know, I went, went through some hard times, you know, the hardest time in the business and then some personal hard times. And, and I think, you know, it formed me differently. And it's really, I go deeper than that, Dave. I go deeper than anything that's associated with, with what we do for a living. And you know, I, I'd focus on you, you know, individually, your, your health, your mental health, the relationships that you have that you care about in the, in the lifestyle that you live. Man, there's just something about, you know, making a change and how you want to live your lifestyle, your mental health and what that does for your mindset, you know, whether it's, you know, a lot of times your lifestyle modifications or exercise or eating or I'm going to begin to read or I'm gonna, you know, if your lifestyle modifications were, you know, you can't make relationships in business. You probably have bad relationships at home with your children, with your spouse. So, you know, really focus onto those things.

And I think when you start to do that, you, you, you're, you're, you know, you're feeling healthier, you're feeling better about yourself. You, you go about your business in a, in a much more aggressive approach. You know, you're much more, much more prepared. Your, your enthusiasm is there because even when things aren't great in business, if the rest of your life's going good, life is not all that. So I think, you know, perspective and, and I think it takes, you know, focus on those, those three things. I think, you know, you know, those few three things, in my opinion, you know, fuel, fuel it all.

Yeah, I agree. Good point, Good point.

So good stuff. I think we had enough on that today. I think it was a relevant topic to come up with here, you know, especially good timing too. Right? We're at the mid year, so, you know, if you haven't, you know, look, if you didn't write a business plan, please start one today, write it for six months and think about what you want to do next year and how you're going to build towards that. But stop and review where you're at, you know. Now are you happy?

And be honest with yourself too.

Totally, totally. Be honest with yourself and, and be willing to make a little bit of change right now, even if you're slightly behind what's working, what's not. You know, make these, make these necessary.

Changes, you know, in wrapping up. Tom, I know we put this offer out to our listeners, you know, from time to time. If you're not getting the leadership and you're not getting the coaching at your current company, we'd be happy to grab 30 minutes to an hour with someone to kind of Assess where their business is at, you know, assess what they can do differently. All always happy to do that. I mean, I think the three of us have been lucky in our careers. We've had some good mentors, good coaches, and we're always willing to pay it forward. I probably talk to loan officers not within our organization for, you know, 90 minutes a week, no strings attached, just, just to have a, have a conversation, help and pay it forward. So if you're not listening to us on a regular basis, please like and subscribe.

We're always here for you. And if you have questions you want to put in the chat on future episodes or have a topic you want to hear, we're always looking for topics and we're always looking for good questions. Tom, anything else from you?

No good stuff today. Again, you know, mid year, let's focus on that second half and your goals and, and what you can do to change and you know, let's not look at that in, in December or January and look back with our heads down. You can, you know, you got, you got six months left and you know, didn't get the bones you thought, but a lot of opportunity out there and, and get out and get after it and, and let's, let's have a great second half of the year. But nonetheless, hey, business is good now and you know, I think it. Opportunities around us refis are going to happen. You know, the boom may be further down the line, but lights, we're well past that light at the end of the tunnel. You know, we're in a good spot right now and certainly headed towards a better one.

Thanks so much.

Thanks so much.