HSBC Senior Economic Adviser Stephen King joins the show to discuss the most important long-term issue facing western economies: inflation. Stephen’s new book - We Need To Talk About Inflation - is an FT “book to read in 2023” for good reasons. He explains why inflation is not just about money creation, it also depends on public perceptions and the fatal temptation of governments to usurp central bank independence (what he calls the Richard Burton - Elizabeth Taylor rule). Stephen explains how to evaluate future inflation risks through his “4 Inflationary Tests” and we talk through how the US and Europe currently measure up.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:05 - Introduction to Stephen King and his book
09:00 - The relationship between public behaviour and the supply of money
13:21 - Can it be deflationary?
17:12 - The Taylor Burton effect
30:29 - The unfairness of inflation
37:46 - Has the impact of inflation become worse over time?
46:26 - Institutional changes and inflation bias
51:04 - Is the radar still switched off?
52:49 - A collapse in money supply?
55:50 - Are central banks acting too slow?
58:31 - The current state of supply conditions
01:02:26 - The relationsship between demographics and inflation
01:05:57 - Building the ideal Fed
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