Today, we are joined by Michael Gayed, award winning Author and Portfolio Manager, for a real time account of what it's like to go through a challenging time in the markets. We discuss how Michael reinvented himself in 2009 and what he learned from the Great Recession, why Michael believes that Trend Following is not a long-vol strategy and how Gayed uses Lumber vs Gold as a market, Risk-on Risk-off indicator and how he uses treasuries as a tool to look forward in time. We also dig into why Gayed believe that higher rates is indicative of an increasing economic activity, why your ability to stick to a strategy matters more than the strategy itself, how buying used items can be a way to fight inflation and why the best investment opportunities happens on dislocations, the reason working harder does not necessarily generate better results and much more.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:58 - Introduction to Michael Gayed
06:05 - What Michael learned from the Great Recession?
13:37 - Using the S&P instead of realized volatility
17:21 - Treasuries - A safe asset?
23:22 - A mixed picture in terms of risk
26:39 - Why Lumber instead of Copper?
30:13 - Is the (inversion of the) yield curve still valid?
31:53 - What about the asset class cycle?
34:34 - Higher rates = increased economic activity?
37:27 - Being persistent is key
39:34 - Will yields come in very sharply?
42:02 - The problem of the inflation narrative
45:31 - Allocating to ETFs and funds
48:48 - The sad side to the business
58:26 - Key takeaways from Niels
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