Shownotes
News of the week as well as a short discussion of current support and resistance levels for bitcoin.
News
Bolt Card
https://www.coincorner.com/buytheboltcard
El Salvador Hosts Bitcoin Conference for 44 Countries
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bukele-and-a-bevy-of-central-bankers-meet-in-el-salvador
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I can be reached by email at mcintosh@genwealthcrypto.com and on twitter at @McIntoshFinTech. My mastodon handle is @mcintosh@podcastindex.social. Looking forward to hearing from you!
Website
Music Credits
Protofunk by Kevin MacLeod
Link: https://incompetech.filmmusic.io/song/4247-protofunk
License: https://filmmusic.io/standard-license
The following music was used for this media project:
Music: Ethernight Club by Kevin MacLeod
Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/7612-ethernight-club
License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license
Artist website: https://incompetech.com
Transcripts
Hey everyone, no one on this
Speaker:podcast is a financial advisor and all information presented on this podcast is for informational
Speaker:purposes only. Now that we have the legal stuff out of the way, let's jump on in.
Speaker:Welcome to the Generational Wealth with Cryptocurrency podcast. I'm your host,
Speaker:McIntosh. Today, we're going to complete our discussion of support and resistance in the
Speaker:crypto markets. Before we jump into everything, I might need to apologize. I talked to one of the
Speaker:listeners earlier this week and sometimes the reality is when you record weekly or bi-weekly
Speaker:like this, not every episode is a home run as much as we might like that to be. I'm not sure
Speaker:that last week I probably went into too much detail about Fibonacci and about the way that
Speaker:the numbers are derived. We probably could have left that to a math podcast and really just kind
Speaker:of talked about the different Fibonacci levels. I find it very interesting to understand where
Speaker:those numbers come from. Maybe everybody does not. If you did not like that episode, I apologize.
Speaker:I am going to go ahead and do the episode as planned this week where we're going to finish
Speaker:up this discussion about support and resistance. I do think even outside of trading that knowing
Speaker:these levels will be very useful. Your mileage may vary, but if you would like, you can certainly
Speaker:skip the episode. We'll be back Monday morning. This week, I said that I was actually going to
Speaker:talk about some specific levels and I do this on purpose. I'm only going to talk about Bitcoin.
Speaker:We're going to take about 10 or 15 minutes. This is not going to be a terribly long episode.
Speaker:We're only going to talk about Bitcoin. You would do the very similar process for Ethereum or for
Speaker:any other asset. We'll just concentrate on Bitcoin. I will be giving specific levels
Speaker:with the understanding. This is actually one of the things that bugs me. You'll see traders,
Speaker:they'll do a YouTube video and they'll draw out a chart and then they'll be like,
Speaker:here's the level and here's the level and you can't see what they're doing.
Speaker:Of course, you literally cannot see what I'm doing here, but regardless, we're going to talk
Speaker:about some very specific values. Now, understand when I tell you these values, this actually can
Speaker:vary from chart to chart. What you draw on Coinbase, for example, would be different slightly.
Speaker:It's not a whole lot, but it can vary, maybe sometimes even by $100 or $200.
Speaker:It can vary from Coinbase to Binance to Bybit or whatever. In fact, during this last dip,
Speaker:I heard numbers of $26,000, $25,000, $24,000. It was a very large range across the different
Speaker:exchanges. Long-term, these differences, you tend to see differences in your charts when you're
Speaker:drawing Fibonacci levels, support and resistance levels, and this kind of thing. Okay. Keeping all
Speaker:that in mind, I am actually using on TradingView a index and I don't know, honestly, I haven't
Speaker:looked it up. I don't know exactly what that means, but it is the only one, and I have the first paid
Speaker:level of TradingView. I don't have a free account, but it's the only one that shows data far enough
Speaker:back with my level to go back to the bottom of the post-2017 market. So 2017, even very early 2018
Speaker:in early January, we were in a bull market and then it fell, right? So we had a lot of downturn.
Speaker:2018 was low. We actually hit the low. I have it drawn on my chart. The low was right around
Speaker:December the 10th in 2018. So that was the low after that peak of the previous bear market.
Speaker:If you recall, when we do a retracement, a Fibonacci retracement, we start from a low,
Speaker:we go to a high, and then what we're determining is, where are potential support levels
Speaker:or resistance levels for a retracement when we're going down from there? Places where it
Speaker:might turn around. So in this case, we started at a low, believe it or not, back in December of 2018
Speaker:of approximately $3,100. Even though it was only a few years ago, it was a lot lower in price.
Speaker:The all-time high was $69,229 on this chart, roughly $69,000. So I drew my Fibonacci
Speaker:retracement between the bottom and the top and pulled that out. And if you recall,
Speaker:we talked about different levels off of that. You don't find all of these levels being used.
Speaker:There's some that are more popular, I guess I could say. 0.236 is not as popular, for example,
Speaker:as 0.382. 0.5, which really isn't a Fibonacci level, but you do end up seeing a lot of support
Speaker:around there. And then the golden pocket, the golden ratio at 0.618. I believe at one point,
Speaker:I mentioned the golden pocket last week. I did want to go ahead and describe that.
Speaker:The golden pocket is what typically is a very strong level of support. It goes between that
Speaker:0.618 golden ratio and approximately 0.65. So it creates a zone. They call it the golden pocket.
Speaker:And then from there, you go on down to the 0.76 and so on. So I have those traced out for this chart.
Speaker:And I will give you those exact levels. I already gave you the low, I gave you the high,
Speaker:and those are important levels. I doubt we will ever revisit 3,100, but there's a level to know.
Speaker:Oh, and another important level while we're throwing levels out is the previous all-time high.
Speaker:So our all-time high is roughly 69,000. You can probably approximate it at that.
Speaker:But previously, our all-time high was 20,000. I don't know if a lot of you may not remember that.
Speaker:On this chart, it was actually 20,429. I drew it out. So there you go, 20,000. And if we were to
Speaker:get down to that level, you would find that would be a pretty strong support level. So there you go.
Speaker:That's something you might want to note on your chart as a, in this case, support level.
Speaker:The other levels, I'll go ahead and give you all of them. Again, the 0.23 levels,
Speaker:not super important, but it's 53,645. The 0.38 level is 43,978. So you could round that up to
Speaker:44,000. The 0.5 level is 36,165. So probably round that down to 36,000. And then the golden pocket
Speaker:is in between. The 0.618 level is 28,352. And I have a really hard time reading this other color.
Speaker:And I have a really hard time reading this other color. Hang on. 26,233. Sorry about that.
Speaker:So that level between 28,352, 26,233, that is called the golden pocket. And
Speaker:in fact, if you looked at the chart, where did we go? And our retracement, our bottom, at least for
Speaker:now, it was in that golden pocket. And I'm not surprised. We rebounded from there. We're currently
Speaker:at $30,000 almost on the nose. And that's it for the Fibonacci. Actually, the 0.768 level is kind
Speaker:of the final one that's given importance, 18,420. Now, let's talk about a couple of other levels.
Speaker:One level of, well, I already mentioned the December 2017 high, excuse me, the previous
Speaker:all-time high, which is right at 20,000. So right above that. You will hear 22,000 quite a bit if
Speaker:you talk to people. A lot of people think that we're going to head down to 22,000. The reason why
Speaker:is, in fact, we broke the 50, if you recall, one of the things we talked about last week,
Speaker:we talked about moving averages. And what did I say? I said, historically, if you broke,
Speaker:I think I might've said the 55-day moving average, it's 50-day. I'm not sure which one I said in
Speaker:retrospect, but it's 50-day. And then, historically, we would go down and touch the 200-day moving
Speaker:average. So, we broke the 50-day a long time ago, back in December, actually, it looks like,
Speaker:was when we broke through it. Then, we tried to get above it after a bit, back in late March.
Speaker:We did actually peak above it, and then it fell back down. History shows that when we break that
Speaker:50-day moving average, simple moving average, that it goes down to the 200-day moving average.
Speaker:Where is that at? And this is why you hear people say 22,000. It's not at 22,000, but it is close.
Speaker:It's like 21,000. It is rising. So, the longer it takes, the higher it will get. But when they say
Speaker:21,000, 22,000, that's one of the big reasons they're saying that. They believe that we will
Speaker:reach that 200-day moving average, because we've done so three other times in the past,
Speaker:so three other times in the past, after we broke that first simple moving average.
Speaker:It's highly likely. It doesn't guarantee it, but it is highly likely. Now, that doesn't mean
Speaker:tomorrow that that's what will happen. It could be a bit. It could be later this year.
Speaker:Theoretically, it could be even longer. I don't believe that will be the case,
Speaker:but it's certainly possible. At this point, I'm pretty sure we will reach that. If that scares
Speaker:you, then you probably haven't been in crypto long enough. This is the kind of stuff that crypto does.
Speaker:The volatility, the high upswings are caused by the volatility. Unfortunately, we have to go
Speaker:through this process. You don't want to sell at the bottom, and we've talked about this multiple
Speaker:times. We always want to sell at the top if we're going to be selling for profit. Now would
Speaker:certainly not be the time to sell. At 22,000 would certainly not be the time to sell.
Speaker:You have to convince yourself Bitcoin is not going to zero. Bitcoin will never go to zero.
Speaker:There is a large group of people who will not sell. They will not, and we may be getting close
Speaker:to that. That might actually be the one thing that keeps us from reaching that 200-day moving average
Speaker:because now you have institutions where it's difficult for them to sell at a loss.
Speaker:It goes on their balance sheets, and they have to account for that.
Speaker:They are typically not predisposed to do that, so you typically don't see that.
Speaker:All right. One final note, actually. I thought this was interesting. I think I saw Crypto Jeb
Speaker:do this today. We are in right now, remember last week, one of the things we did, we talked about
Speaker:patterns until a few days ago. We were in what's called a bear pennant. It's a very simple pattern.
Speaker:We came down from 69K, and if you look at it on, say, a weekly chart or a daily chart,
Speaker:you would see this. It basically goes virtually straight down, very little pause. As we came down
Speaker:from 69K, it looks like we paused at that 50-week simple moving average, and then we dropped on down
Speaker:to our low. We dropped down to the low of the pennant, I should say, and then we started
Speaker:building that pennant. It does actually look like a pennant. You hold up a little flag.
Speaker:A bear pennant is upside down. A bull pennant is actually the reverse.
Speaker:Anyways, we built out this bear pennant, and we broke that. That's when we went down to
Speaker:our golden pocket, down at 25, 26K, 24, upper 24s, whatever. We've broken that out, but there's also
Speaker:a way you can measure roughly how far that bear pennant will break down. The calculation is what?
Speaker:Guess what? This is fascinating. This is the kind of stuff why I love TA.
Speaker:I just wish it didn't involve real money sometimes, but the breakdown shows that most likely,
Speaker:and we are already, by the way, a good portion through this breakdown, where does it show that
Speaker:we will lead down to $20,000? That same level, when I drew it on my chart, it lined up exactly
Speaker:with that $19,900 line I had for the high back in 2017, December 2017.
Speaker:You've got a support level there from that previous high. You've got a support level
Speaker:right below that with the 0.768 level at... I apologize for this, but my lettering is really
Speaker:small on this screen. $18,420. It's also in different colors, and that makes it more difficult
Speaker:for me. Regardless, you've got two very strong support levels right there. My guess is we're
Speaker:going to get somewhere in that area, and that will be where we get... We may bounce right off that
Speaker:200-day simple moving average. We've seen that in the past. We've also seen where it's gone below
Speaker:that. It will probably depend on how long this takes. If this breaks down over the next few weeks,
Speaker:I could see going right on down to that level. What we would want, ideally, is a V-shaped recovery
Speaker:where we go on up. Now, historically, just for everybody's reference, these bear markets last
Speaker:a while. Until we see that V-shaped recovery and we're back up above some solid lines, which
Speaker:certainly above that 50-day simple moving average, right now $44,000, that's going to
Speaker:change over time, of course. But until we get above that, we're in a bear market. That's all
Speaker:there is to it. We could bounce from here and hit $43,000 and turn back around and go back down,
Speaker:and we would still be in a bear market. Doesn't mean you can't profit during that time. Doesn't
Speaker:mean you can't DCA during that time, but that is the reality. I have all this marked out on my chart.
Speaker:I might actually throw this up on Twitter. You may find this a little confusing. You can follow me
Speaker:on Twitter at McIntoshFintech, but just for reference, I might actually put this up there.
Speaker:All right. I hope that's helpful. You might want to have jotted down those numbers. You
Speaker:may find those useful. I would recommend, trading or not, that you get a copy. You can do it on
Speaker:your website or you can download the app. Trading view. Use the free account. Pull up some of these
Speaker:long-term charts and start looking at this stuff, charting it out yourself. You can do some simple
Speaker:things at that free level, enough to get you going. It's very useful to see some of this stuff.
Speaker:All right. We've got some news for the week. I do hope you guys find that helpful. Please give
Speaker:me feedback. If you don't like that kind of stuff, you're not going to hurt my feelings by telling
Speaker:me that. You can shoot me an email at mcintosh at genwealthcrypto.com. I guess you could direct
Speaker:message me on Twitter. I don't know. Well, I'm sure you can. You've got a couple ways to get
Speaker:a hold of me. I don't know if this is the kind of thing you guys want to hear or not. I probably
Speaker:won't be doing a whole lot of it, but I might mix in some of it down the road. We'll see.
Speaker:Let's talk about the news. Not a whole lot this week. I'm going to start with probably
Speaker:one of the most important things. This is, I think, awesome. First of all, there's a lot of
Speaker:fud, fear, uncertainty, doubt around Bitcoin, crypto in general. This happens all the time.
Speaker:You know we're at the bottom when they get to screaming the loudest, and they're certainly
Speaker:screaming really loud right now. Now, you're seeing some very interesting things like one
Speaker:of the very large banks, and I do not remember which one. They came out with a report today,
Speaker:and well, I don't remember which bank it was. It wasn't Bank of America, but it was that level of
Speaker:bank. It was a very large bank. They came out and said, hey, Bitcoin's fine. It's not going to go to
Speaker:zero, whatever. This is a bank basically recommending it as an investment. I thought that was great.
Speaker:Another thing that actually I thought as I'm recording this, it just turned midnight. It's
Speaker:Friday, but I'm recording this on Thursday. The stock market went down quite a bit today,
Speaker:and quite a bit yesterday, both days actually. I think yesterday, it was the worst two days
Speaker:since 2020, so probably centering around the COVID crash. I know yesterday it dropped like
Speaker:a thousand points, but you know what Bitcoin did? You know what crypto did in general? It kind of
Speaker:stayed the same. This is what I hope becomes a pattern. We've talked in the past, crypto and
Speaker:the stock market tend to kind of trade in tandem. Stock market goes up, crypto goes up. This is the
Speaker:first time we've been in what I would certainly already call a recession. Now, technically,
Speaker:the market is not in recession, although it's getting close. But I think if anybody looks
Speaker:around, I think you're seeing companies start to lay people off. You're seeing
Speaker:things get pulled back, right? This kind of thing. Regardless, to me, this indicates
Speaker:maybe the first start of Bitcoin specifically not being a risk on asset. In other words,
Speaker:a risky asset. In other words, like a typical stock and one that people would sell when they're
Speaker:uncertain. I think that's very important. I hope it continues because what we want to see is,
Speaker:first of all, we want to see Bitcoin and these other crypto assets separate from the stock
Speaker:market. It shouldn't have anything to do with it. I'm buying Bitcoin specifically as a counter to
Speaker:what I see going on in the traditional financial world. I don't want those two things running in
Speaker:so I don't want those two things running in tandem, so to speak. It's way too early to see if that's a
Speaker:real trend, but I thought that was a very positive thing. All right. On to the news before this
Speaker:episode gets too long. I only have two news items this week. On May the 17th, so just a couple days
Speaker:ago, El Salvador talking about FUD, they have certainly gotten some bad press. A lot of people
Speaker:think they're making a mistake with this whole Bitcoin is legal tender experiment, if you want
Speaker:to call it that. I disagree. I think sometimes they can be a little ambitious, but I disagree.
Speaker:Fundamentally, I think El Salvador is doing the right thing. Now, they had a conference
Speaker:this week in El Salvador and they had 44 central bankers from developing countries around the
Speaker:world. I think it's fascinating in that all of these countries, they are coming from developing
Speaker:nations, and I am excited about that. These countries potentially could be leading the world
Speaker:into a new financial revolution. Okay? And you're talking about countries like
Speaker:IC, Madagascar, Haiti, Burundi, Swaziland, Jordan, Gambia, Honduras, the Maldives, Rwanda, Nepal,
Speaker:Kenya, Pakistan, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Egypt, Nigeria, Senegal, so on and so forth. A lot of
Speaker:countries in Africa. These are the countries that very likely will be leading this Bitcoin as an
Speaker:asset, as a crypto, as a currency, as a hard form of money in the near future.
Speaker:Now, I think these people showed up because they were more than just a little interested,
Speaker:and I suspect that maybe not all of these will adopt Bitcoin over the next couple of years,
Speaker:but a lot of them will. If only half of them, you're talking about over 20 countries in the
Speaker:next few years adopting Bitcoin in some form or another. Maybe it's not legal tender,
Speaker:but maybe they make it legal to use as a currency, and there is a difference.
Speaker:I applaud these countries. I wish them the best. I really wish the United States actually was,
Speaker:frankly, more along the lines of this. I will have a link in the show notes to an article about this,
Speaker:but El Salvador is leading the way with this. Bitcoin for the nation state, whatever you want
Speaker:to call it, and that's awesome. The president of El Salvador is going to continue to get flack
Speaker:about it, and that's okay. As long as they don't do something really outrageous and stupid,
Speaker:stupid, I think they'll be fine. I think they're okay to weather a bear market, whether it's two
Speaker:more weeks or two more months or two more years. They are not going crazy with what they're doing.
Speaker:Good for them. All right. The next item and the final item. This was interesting.
Speaker:A company has come out with, they call it the Bolt Card. For a few bucks, you can get this card.
Speaker:Now, I do not know, and I looked, I can't find a whole lot of information. They basically just
Speaker:announced it, but for a few bucks, you can get a card that somehow is tied into your Lightning
Speaker:account. You can use it like a debit card. It has an NFC chip in it, so you can go into a business,
Speaker:and if they have one of those readers for NFC, basically, you could just tap it on there,
Speaker:and if it accepts Lightning, which you will see more and more of these terminals do,
Speaker:you'll see more and more of these terminals will be able to over the next few years.
Speaker:Then you can use it to pay right out of your Lightning account. This could dramatically
Speaker:increase the Bitcoin as currency usage. They have lots of little designs. Some of them are cute.
Speaker:Some of them are subtle little puns like there's a whale here with Bitcoin around it, so it's a
Speaker:Bitcoin whale. There's a Lightning bolt. There's a spaceship. Of course, a lot of them got Bitcoin
Speaker:all over it. A pizza, a pizza day, Bitcoin pizza day, Papa John's. That would be a reference to
Speaker:the infamous Papa John's pizzas that were bought with Bitcoin, a lot of Bitcoin, 10,000 if I
Speaker:remember. It may be more than that. Anyways, a cute little panda. It's a little
Speaker:bear. Anyways, a cute little panda, a bull. I don't know. You can make a little statement with your
Speaker:card. I think it will take time for stores to start accepting this stuff, but I'm glad there's
Speaker:a company out there doing this. They're called Coin Corner, and this is not their main business.
Speaker:If I'm not mistaken, well, maybe it is. I don't know. I'm not real clear on what they do. They
Speaker:are over in Europe, but this bolt card, I'll read off their feature list real quick. Of course,
Speaker:it's a physical card. You tap to pay via Lightning in person or on a website or on your phone.
Speaker:I don't know exactly how that would work, but I would love to see a bigger review of this. I'm
Speaker:sure that there will be. You can use Lightning payments, NFC as I already mentioned. You can
Speaker:send Bitcoin payments from any currency. They're probably pulling it out of a bank account. Easy
Speaker:set up via the app, and you can also use it as a gift card to give Bitcoin to a friend. So that's
Speaker:cool. So maybe I've got a good friend I want to get into Bitcoin, and I give him a bolt card with
Speaker:50 bucks on it or 100 bucks in Bitcoin on it or whatever. So cool. I'll have a link to that as
Speaker:well. That was actually it. I mean, I don't talk about the regular news as much. The stock market
Speaker:still going down. Tomorrow is not looking good. Honestly, I could see all this winding down very
Speaker:quickly, right? I could see us going down and hitting that bottom level. I don't think we've
Speaker:hit it yet. Some people do think that, and that's okay. Maybe they're right. We've hit the golden
Speaker:pocket, and that golden pocket does provide a strong level of support. But I believe from a
Speaker:confluence of things, I don't think we're going to wait until that moving average moves up above the
Speaker:golden pocket to touch it. And I'm 90% certain that we will touch that 200-day moving average,
Speaker:the one that's currently at $22,000. And given the bear pennant that we're moving out of down,
Speaker:there's just a lot of confluence going on around this level of $18,000, $19,000, $20,000, $21,000,
Speaker:$22,000. So I just don't think we're quite done yet. Best case, maybe for everybody would be a
Speaker:quick bounce. If we're in a two-year bear market, on the one hand, it will be frustrating. But on
Speaker:the other hand, it will be a chance for us to buy Bitcoin. I will say this, and I probably shouldn't,
Speaker:but it's not financial advice. In my estimate, after we break all-time high, $69,000, after we're
Speaker:moving on, the next stop will be $100,000. And I don't think it will be too long after we break
Speaker:that all-time high. Now, beyond that, I'm not willing to speculate, but Bitcoin is not done.
Speaker:Every time people think Bitcoin is done, it proves them otherwise. So that's going to be it for this
Speaker:week. I hope you've liked it. The Generational Wealth Cryptocurrency Podcast supports Podcasting 2.0.
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Speaker:Wealth Cryptocurrency Podcast. Thanks for being here. I hope this has been helpful. I sure would
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Speaker:at mcintoshgenwealthcrypto, and of course, the generationalwealth website is at genwealthcrypto.com.