What is the future of the U.S. economy? Host Maiclaire Bolton Smith and CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp dive into this perennial question in the final episode of Core Conversations: Season 3.
From incremental home sales increases to gradually declining mortgage rates, there is a lot that we can expect to happen in 2024. However, geopolitical risks, such as oil prices and inflation, have the potential to impact the trajectory of mortgage rates and change the development of the overall housing market.
Tune into this final episode of the season to gain insights into the uncertain future of the housing market, as well as what current trends and property data indicate is likely to develop as we pass into the new year.
In This Episode:
0:40 – A summary of what happened in the 2023 housing market.
1:23 – What does Selma expect to be the 2024 economic outlook?
5:40 – Erika Stanley reviews the natural disasters reported on by CoreLogic's Hazard HQ Command Central
Find full episodes with all our guests in our podcast archive here: https://clgx.co/3zqhBZt
Transcripts
Selma Hepp:
I am a little bit concerned about winter home prices this year and coming until next spring because of mortgage rates being so high.
Erika Stanley:
sing market in the economy in:
Maiclaire Bolton Smith:
uture look like as we go into:
SH:
t I say because who knows how:
And so, years after 2024, we definitely do see housing market improving in a sense that it will keep growing, a number of home transactions will keep increasing. Now, high mortgage rates at the moment, what they're doing is they're really challenging home price growth. So, what was interesting this year with home prices is that we left the year 2022 with home prices declining, and that decline bottomed out at the beginning of this year. And as buyers rushed in earlier this year, during the spring home buying season, there were more buyers than there were sellers. And so, that put pressure on home prices. And in fact, home prices have grown some 5% just in a few months from the bottom in February until August of this year, they've gone up.
ing to that low at the end of:
And so, that would lead to some of that slight decline. Although again, on a year-over-year basis, I think we'll likely to see about 4% price appreciation this year overall for the year and 4% next year. So, that's what we have in our forecast. So, unless something crazy happens, and there was a lot of crazy this year, right? And it's even now, and so when you look at geopolitical risks, you look at oil prices — because oil prices, what the concern is that oil prices will put pressure on agricultural products or food as well, and you will see a re-acceleration of inflation. What does that mean? Means Fed stays higher for longer, means mortgage rates higher for longer, right? So, that's the wild card or something to keep an eye out for.
ES:
re we end this episode in the:
In late October, the Pacific saw a historic storm make landfall in the greater Acapulco area in Mexico. CoreLogic estimated insurable losses from wind damages were between $10 and $15 billion. However, financial impacts incurred by private insurance markets are likely to be lower than the total insurable modeled loss. Hurricane Otis is still notable for its sudden development that surprised meteorologists. The storm increased to a category 5 hurricane within 24 hours, becoming the strongest tropical cyclone on record to affect the Mexican state of Guerrero. Then, another record storm broke out this time, though it was on the other side of the pond.
Storm Ciarán, also known as Emir, which was classified as a weather bomb as it approached to Europe, set new meteorological records. The storm raced along the English Channel traveling through northwestern France and southern England into the Low Countries. Although, an intense storm with severe winds and heavy rainfall, CoreLogic said it does not expect insured losses across the region to be material.
-degree Fahrenheit day since:
Before we finish our episode though, we wanted our listeners to know about an upcoming event in January where they can meet some of our experts, including Maiclaire, in person.
Garret Gray:
ait to see you at INTRCONNECT:
MBS:
Selma, you are not a fortune teller. You are an economist, so we do appreciate that view and thank you for doing this recap with us today. This has been great. To kind of recap kind of where we came throughout the year, this year went by incredibly fast. I think many people will agree with that, and just to see kind of how things evolved. So, I'm not a fortune teller, but if I had to predict one thing, it's that you're going to be back soon again on this podcast in season four. So, thank you so much, Selma for joining us today on Core Conversations, a CoreLogic Podcast.
SH:
Thank you. Thank you Maiclaire, so much for having me. It was such a pleasure talking to you, and I look forward to our next meeting again on this podcast.
MBS:
Sounds great, and thank you for listening. I hope you've enjoyed our latest episode. Please remember to leave us a review and let us know your thoughts and subscribe wherever you get your podcast to be notified when new episodes are released. And thanks to the team for helping bring this podcast to life. Producer, Jessi Devenyns; editor and sound engineer, Romie Aromin; our Facts Guru Erika Stanley; and social media duo Sarah Buck and Makaila Brooks. Tune in next time for another Core Conversation.
ES:
You still there? Well, thanks for sticking around. Are you curious to know a little bit more about our guest today? Well, Selma Hepp is CoreLogic's Chief Economist. Selma leads the economics team, which is responsible for analyzing, interpreting, and forecasting housing and economic trends in real estate, mortgage, and insurance. Selma frequently appears on local and national radio and television programs and has been widely quoted in The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, and many industry trade publications. She also regularly contributes to the CoreLogic Intelligence blog where you can read her work at CoreLogic.com/intelligence.
