The final Kentucky Derby Top 10 list has been meticulously examined in this enlightening episode, as I engage in a profound discussion with Eric DeCoster, a prominent figure in Derby analysis. We delve into the intricacies of each contender, evaluating their performances, potential, and the factors influencing their prospects in the upcoming race. Among the key topics addressed is the overall quality of the current crop of horses, with DeCoster expressing a degree of disappointment regarding their development since their two-year-old season. We further explore the challenges faced by pivotal horses, including the prospects of those who narrowly missed the top ten. As Derby Day approaches, we emphasize the significance of understanding the dynamics of this prestigious race, reflecting on historical performances and the unpredictable nature of the event.

PTF sits down with Eric DeCoster for a deeper dive into the final Kentucky Derby Top 10.

Takeaways:

• The podcast features an in-depth analysis of the final Kentucky Derby Top 10 rankings, providing listeners with critical insights.
• Eric DeCoster shares his observations on the progression of the current crop of three-year-old horses, expressing disappointment in their development.
• The discussion highlights the importance of race configuration for horses like Sovereignty and Journalism as they prepare for the Derby.
• Listeners are encouraged to subscribe for detailed coverage and analysis of the Kentucky Derby as race day approaches.

Links referenced in this episode:

• inthemoneypodcast.com

Companies mentioned in this episode:

• Prairie Meadows
• Pavement
• Rich Strike
• Burnham Square
• Tiz Tastic
• Citizen Bull
• Final Gambit
• East Avenue
• Admire Daytona
• Luxor Cafe
• Sovereignty
• Journalism
• Chunk of Gold

Hello and welcome to a special edition of the in the Money Players podcast.

We're going to have the regular early week recap a little bit later.

Mikey P.

And Nick Tamaraw on that one, but I'm here.

Peter Thomas Fornitel in the Brooklyn Bunker once again to talk to the man who has been really the MVP of the Derby content from last winter.

Now, as we get ready to head in earnest, headlong into these couple of weeks before the first Saturday in May, I speak of Eric DeCoster.

Eric, how are things?

Things are good.

I, I just completed my move to Iowa to kick off my gig in person at least at Prairie Meadows because we got our meet starting in a month, so busy times on that front and then obviously the, the Derby coming up.

But it's, it's all good.

It's all stuff I like doing that's excellent.

Very cool.

Love the fact that you're going to be out there helping out at Prairie Meadows.

Hopefully at least on the plus side of things we can get some more Prairie Meadows coverage going this year, though I don't know.

As racing secretary, are you allowed to talk about races like a horseplayer would, or would you have to put us in touch with one of your colleagues?

That's probably the more likely option.

I probably have to dance around certain things.

That's what I was in terms of actually getting to put my, my talk into action and getting involved with the races.

I definitely have to look elsewhere.

So it probably more enjoyable that way too.

At least in my opinion.

There you go.

Years ago we had Bob Nastanovich on talking Prairie Meadows at some point.

I, I assume Bob is still there working at Prairie Meadows.

Have you come across him?

I'm familiar with the name, but he hasn't, he hasn't been around in a little bit.

I, I recall.

Gotcha.

Well, he may be touring the the world being the rock star that he is in the band Pavement.

So I'm not sure I gotta catch up with him.

But hopefully one way or another we'll have some Prairie Meadows coverage coming up in the not too distant future.

But that is not why we are here today.

We are here to talk about the final top 10 list video flying on YouTube about it.

You can check out the thoughts of myself and jk.

But we're here to do a little bit of a deeper dive into this list.

And I'll start with a couple of very general questions.

How good, as somebody who has made these type of lists for a number of years, how good do you feel like this crop Is overall I'm pretty.

Disappointed with how it's progressed.

I thought that these two year olds were going to come and, and stay consistent, stay as good as they were or I guess more importantly improve off of the efforts they'd put forth last year.

Horses like Chancellor McPatrick, I think East Avenue to an extent, sitting some bowl last time and then some even bigger disappointments outside of them.

But, but I, I, I wish they had progressed because I thought they would and that's why I ranked them so highly on these lists early on.

But, but they didn't really and it doesn't feel like that many horses have caught up to them.

It just feels like these, these are the types that have, you know, progressed beyond them.

Other than I'd say the top three, four or five horses that will go over today.

Yeah, we'll get there for sure.

In terms of ones that you left out, who was the toughest decision?

One of the ones that you move from in to out or maybe, I mean did you give a look to a horse like East Avenue based on how good he was briefly as a two year old coming back somewhat into form the last day, who was the hardest one to leave out?

That's a, that's a really good question there, there's a few that I think would be, would be longer shots in the Derby but I think are worth considering.

But, but maybe not your the most straightforward horses.

You know, I've seen some love for the likes of An American Promise or a Publisher as early maybe Wise Guy types or Chunk of Gold especially.

But, but the one horse I'd say that that didn't get on the list that I think might be the best horse I left out on Derby day is Final Gambit who you know has only had one really big race has only ever started on synthetic which has a lot to overcome come to Derby Day.

But how he's progressed and how he looks physically, it's probably night and day for even Brad Cox's liking and that's why he had him at Turfway and running him on the synthetic and he's really broken through and just watching him train through videos in the morning, it seems like he loves the dirt and gets over it super well.

So I, I think he's a horse who's just flying in the right direction.

We'll see how things shake out as, as the Derby comes closer.

But, but I think that this horse is really finding his way and the, the Turfway, the Jeff Ruby Stakes Prep Angle has not been the worst in the last few years with some really nice horses or at least horses horses who ran well like Rich Strike coming out of the Ruby and going on to to win or place in the Derby.

And two fills another one that comes to mind that had a PP cut that didn't look entirely dissimilar to final Gambit.

Unless I'm misremembering that.

Let's get to the list proper starting with the one you have at number 10 and that's Tiz Tastic.

The obvious storyline here a lot of us are are interested in is is this the one to break the Steve Asmussen who hoodoo in the Kentucky Derby.

Very nice run in the Louisiana Derby last time.

I think he certainly deserves a spot in the top 10.

Assuming that last race, does that represent a new level of ability or was this a horse with a good setup?

I'm guessing you're sitting somewhere in between those two possibilities from the fact that he's 10th on the list.

Exactly, exactly.

I think you, you hit the nail right on the head with that.

A really nice horse and, and a horse with this much consistency at these levels, this much battle tested form, that's something you always love to see coming into the Derby.

And then you throw in the win at the mile 3:16.

I think that changed a handful of years ago from a mile and an eighth to a mile and 3:16.

Louisiana Derby has been a big difference maker and having this be a key derby prep even for horses that didn't win it, they go on to run well in the Kentucky Derby.

So you have to love those two things for this horse.

But the Louisiana Trail, I was kind of alluding to it through many different forms of, of content that I didn't think the Fairgrounds Derby trail was that strong this year.

Even though some of the numbers came back big.

I didn't think the horses were actually reflective of those numbers.

And he didn't beat the best field that day.

I don't think the Louisiana Derby was even as good of a race as say the Risen Star and maybe even the La Compte was.

So that, that's where, that's where I get kind of put in that middle, middle space.

And he's still a good horse.

He's still going to run his race in the Derby.

But I, I think him winning the race is going to be a big stretch, especially given he's.

It seems like he's his best race comes when he comes from far back like he did last time.

And there's a lot of other horses that'll be coming from the same exact spot, trying to get the same exact trip.

And you know, in that situation you got to go off ability from there.

And he's not better than some of the other horses on this list.

We're going to have a ton of extra stuff in terms of video specifically about the draw for the Kentucky Derby.

We're going to obviously get into the nitty gritty of the pace.

It does seem now like there's going to be plenty of it, but where these horses are drawn and that idea of, you know, you probably don't want the third best closer in the race to be your key, that kind of thing, it's going to be interesting.

And if folks want to make sure they catch all that, I'd recommend subscribing to the in The Money Media YouTube channel.

Click notifications on there.

So you see all the stuff coming down the pike on the YouTube channel, including those special videos.

And also as usual, we're going to have a big derby package on the in the money plus side.

Inthemoney podcast.com/ to learn more about that.

We should probably have all those details up there in the next couple of days even, I'd say.

So we continue on with the list and we move to Oklahoma park and the Arkansas Trail.

For a runner who's been a little bit divisive, a cold battle.

I was actually probably giving him more credit before I did the Monster Pod video.

The audios on the Monster Pod, by the way, will be up.

It's the balls in JK's court.

He's got to do his and then I'll stitch them all together.

But I'm hoping by this weekend.

But Clay Sanders was our guest for Cole Battle and he, he wasn't giving him the extra credit that I was initially wanting to give him for being a little bit closer in the Arkansas Derby.

Where do you stand?

Is Cole Battle a live long shot or is he just a horse who's on the list?

Because he's got some ones to the right side of his pedigree and maybe a little bit of an excuse last time.

No, I agree with the excuse last time.

That was my immediate reaction.

I thought maybe I overreacted.

I went back and I definitely still believe he was too close to that pace or maybe more importantly moved too quickly into that fast pace.

And I think that kind of took some of the juice out of we know how effective he can be as a well off the pace closer.

He showed that when he won the Springboard Mile from super far back and that was a great move he made that day to come catch a horse who's come getting away on the front end.

So I was very, I was hoping that in the Arkansas Derby there would be a little bit more awareness out of the, out of the break to take back and come with that one run.

But instead they made that early move from that stalking position or quote unquote Stocking position 9 lengths off the lead.

But either way, I think that took a lot out of it.

I think being a little more aware of what the pace scenario in the Derby will be, post draw will do a lot of favors for this horse.

And he's another one that has really good form and he's kept up with the best one.

He's beaten a Sandman still.

He's beaten other Derby Prep winners and Publisher is not a bad horse either.

And that's another horse he's beaten.

And so I think his form's been proven on many different occasions.

And for that reason, I think you have to keep him around.

He obviously has to get a lot faster to be a Derby contender, but could be a live long shot.

You're going to get a big price on him, I guarantee it, because not many people are going to respect him enough off that loss.

It's interesting, I feel like I'm doing this audio with you and prepping for another video because another one we've got coming up is our live long shots and I might put him as one of those for the record time.

Form did give him a five point upgrade for those early exertions in there.

The final raw number on time form 110, and then the pace adjusted rating came back at 115.

You talked about the draw and call battle.

I'm going to assume you want him in the inside half of the field, but not down in the 1, 2 or 3.

Somewhere in that 4 to 10 range.

Is that, is that what you're looking for?

Do you want him further outside than that?

You know, I think probably inside is better.

I think just covering him up and allowing he clearly can work out any trip he wants.

So just putting yourself in a position to do that come Derby day will be really, really key.

I think there seems like it'll, it'll be quite a bit of pace as things stand right now.

So, you know, just putting yourself in a position to stay out of trouble, not get it in anybody's way early on and come, come with your run when it matters.

Let's talk about the Florida slash Keeneland route to the Derby next on the list Burnham Square, this gelding by Liam's map, who comes here off what was a pretty nice race in the Bluegrass.

How serious do you think his chances are in the Kentucky Derby?

I think he's got a very solid chance.

I just hope that the Bluegrass didn't take too much out of him.

Ian Wilkes is a great trainer, but he's never going to get a horse fully cranked for the big spot.

But I wonder if the big spot came erased too soon by having him at his best for the Bluegrass, and we might see a regression come Derby day, because that's kind of what we saw from the Holy bowl to the Fountain of Youth.

He technically got faster, at least on the buyer scale, by one point, which is encouraging to see.

And then he stepped it up big time to a 96, winning the bluegrass from last.

And that was a big effort.

But was that his biggest effort?

So.

So that's my one concern.

But he's obviously a classy horse.

You look through his form, you look at the horses he's beaten, you can't knock him in any sense there.

He beat Tapping street in the Holy bowl, three back now and then, obviously beating East Avenue, getting back at River Thames, who finished in front of him in the Fountain of Youth, nearly won the Fountain of Youth.

So he's answered all those questions.

He's another one of those deep closers.

So once again, it kind of comes down to who's the best of these types.

And, you know, not every year does it have to be the best type.

Back when Rich Strike won the Derby, giving him another reference, he was not the best closer in the race.

He just.11 closer in the race there.

Yeah, yeah, exactly.

Exactly.

Just an amazing ride that day for, you know, for whatever reason it worked out.

And Mo Donegal, who might have been the best one that day, was 30 wide.

That's the Derby.

So that.

That'll be a key element to how.

How he's drawn, what kind of ride Brian Hernandez can work out that's going to give him the best chance.

But will he have the kick, too?

Who.

Who really knows?

Because.

Because it's tough to predict with the spar.

Yeah, he ran very efficiently that day.

Did have a little bit of trouble at the start, but it was the kind of day where the trouble at the start might have ultimately helped him because it was red fractions throughout.

On time form us, he moved last and he moved best.

But I think if this was just a regular race and not the Kentucky Derby we were talking about, I'd be rating East Avenue higher than Burnham Square coming out of the Bluegrass.

Looking at those early pace figures he laid out now, I agree with you to have Burnham Square on the top 10 and East Avenue presumably as a bubble horse, simply because I'm pretty sure there's going to be a plenty other speed in this spot.

Now we'll see if there are some defections.

Maybe East Avenue is in a situation where you can conjure a situation that he could control the Derby up front, but I do worry that there'll just be too much pace once again.

But East Avenue ran a heck of a race in the Bluegrass.

When going back and looking at pace figures, how close did you come to putting him on this list?

I would say he was probably ra right behind Final Gambit, who we mentioned earlier.

He's.

He's very hard to trust, as everyone can imagine off of those earlier efforts.

And you know how he'll handle some of that other speed.

A horse that we're going to talk about in a second it that that's what concerns me the most.

Posters draw he's going to be probably the most important horse in this year's Derby.

Maybe not the best, maybe not the fastest, maybe not the winner, maybe doesn't even hit the board.

But his presence dictates how this entire Derby plays out.

Where he's drawn dictates how the entire Derby will play out, regardless of who else defects or maybe joins the field.

As long as he's in it, he's the most important horse.

He's the key to how everyone else will probably run.

Talk like a man who really enjoys his race design.

I know what you mean when you talk about the draw for East Avenue, but explain yourself for those who don't.

Basically, if he's drawn more inside or if he gets, you know, basically his race is over if he draws the 1, 2 or 3.

And if he does end up drawing a position that low, he's.

He's going to be sent.

He has one way of going.

We saw what happened when they tried to rate him in the Risen Star earlier this year in February.

We saw what happened when he missed the break and got behind horses taking kickback in the Breeders Cup Juvenile.

If he makes the lead, he's better.

That's why Brendan Walsh put the blinkers on him for the Bluegrass, so he could get out of the gate well, get a clean face, do what he likes to do best, which is be on the lead.

And he has no quit from there.

Clearly, as we saw running those red fractions you mentioned and still sticking around narrowly losing to the horse who was coming from last.

I mean that's a super impressive effort.

But if he's drawn out in 19 they're also going to have to use him a lot to get him to the lead.

So and probably even more important who's drawn who else is drawn and wants to be forward like Rodriguez for instance in correlation to East Avenue that's going to matter to see who has inside outside position as they make their way to the first turn or who's pressing who is probably even a better way.

So it'll, it'll be very fascinating.

At first when he wasn't looking like he was going to make the Derby it looked like there could be a little less pace in here.

But his presence makes this a really, really, really interesting race.

You've given us the perfect segue to number seven on the list Rodriguez.

This is a horse that I had had my pet little theory that hadn't was better than we'd seen before the Wood in the previous two races because he hadn't been given his best chance to win with more fancied stablemates in there then for Wood Day he was allowed to just roll and roll he did.

Scoring a hundred buyer speed figure and getting the job done.

I would be much more interested in him without East Avenue, without this, this other presumptive speed Japanese horse.

Not not looks or cafe.

I'm spacing on the name.

You'll probably have it at the ready but anyway now it looks like there's a lot of one way speed.

That's probably bad news for Rodriguez but he is a progressive type who's probably a little bit better than his bare form suggests.

I love him in the top 10.

How, how much do you like him beyond the obvious the fact that you have him seventh here.

Yeah, I mean part of the reason he's here is because he's a Bob Baffert trainee and I've just learned you can't fully excite against him.

And he became the top horse in the barn despite the fact he'll probably have three runners now with Citizen Bull and and Madikit Road also likely in the race and how they're handled.

Who knows at this point if this truly is Baffert's a horse Rodriguez.

But I was a skeptic up until that Wood Memorial that that was a, a very solidifying race of his true ability like you were referencing.

It doesn't seem like they, they allowed us to see his best in the Bob Lewis or the San Felipe and even Then he ran as well as he could in those spots given the circumstances.

The Bob Lewis he still finished in front of a Madiket road right that 1, 2, 3 from that race are all in the Kentucky Derby field as things stand and are supposed to run if their connections are telling the truth.

So I, I think now Rodriguez will be used as the a horse he'll be put most forward and how he deals with it.

Buyer Daytona, the Japanese horse that isn't Luxor Cafe and isn't on this list as well as East Avenue will once again be very based on the post position draw.

But I think he showed decent fight and maybe the Bob Lewis more so than the San Felipe when he was beaten 11 links by journalism but maybe that that means he.

He fights for the pace early and if they don't go too ridiculously fast he could somehow hit the board in some fashion.

He seems to have a little bit of fight in him and so that'll be a really interesting thing to see come derby day and see how his form stacks up with some of these others he hasn't faced but he's.

But he's faced a decent amount now with you know the journalisms the three from the Bob Lewis and now he'll get at least one from the Wood Memorial in Grande on his.

On his form as well.

So he has a lot of overlapping class.

Despite only having one race outside of.

California he really ran very efficiently.

Looking at the time form us line back in the Wood it's going to be a lot harder.

I think the derby pace is going to be a lot more attritional.

Definitely going to be one that we'll see what the final composition of the field is.

But from now I think it's not going to happen as easy of a time bossing things.

So number six on the list.

I'm still mad about.

I'm still mad about this.

There were so many lists out there online, multiple sources.

I checked when I we were seeing Baeza before the the rescheduled Bluegrass takes listed as 20th.

Well that wasn't right.

He's like 26th on the list.

There's gonna be some other dropouts for sure but I'm starting to think it sounds like the way the wind is blowing connections might not even muck about with the derby Unless there's a lot of defections between now and draw day.

They might just head straight to Baltimore.

I'm frustrated because Baeza would be such an interesting horse in this spot.

Knowing what we know now.

Are you still happy having him as your number six on this top ten Derby list?

I am, yeah.

Because at the end of the day, with a horse this talented, it's worth taking a shot because he still has two weeks to potentially get into the race, more or less.

I think, as of now, you have to be on the ground I think, by either the Saturday or Sunday before the Derby.

So as things stand, that's 12, 13 days from today when we're recording this.

So there's still a chance.

And.

And he's gotten closer and closer because of some expected defections, like Flood Zone, Heart of Honor, the horse from that had been racing in Dubai that did not take the.

The automatic bid he was given.

So that.

That's been helped.

I think as of now, he really only stands behind three horses, so we'll see what happens.

And a few of the horses that are on the outside looking in, in front of him are not fully confirmed to run in the Derby, like Built and Neo Equals have both been suggested.

They might run Built maybe in the pat de Mile and, you know, Equals maybe in the American turf.

I don't know what the deciding factors are on that, but obviously that helps Baez's case that neither one of those horses are fully locked in to the Kentucky Derby, even if they were getting the chance to run, given a spot in the starting gate.

So that's encouraging.

And he's more than deserving than those horses.

And I think everybody's opinion to actually get into the race based off that big run against Journalism.

I will say, you know, he.

He did get the setup where, you know, we.

We talked so much in all these preps about how Baffert had been able to work out these great setups for his horses.

And then here we get to the biggest prep of all, the Santa Anita Derby, and John Sheriffs helps blow the race up with his maiden, Westwood, who actually still ran a very good third, still beat Citizen Boland Barnes.

But point being, he really got Baes at the run of the race and still lost a journalism at the end of the day, but a valiant second in your first start against winners in a grade one, that's.

I mean, that's.

That's so strong.

So even if it isn't here, the Preakness would be an amazing race to see him in.

But I'm.

I'm crossing my fingers and feeling a little more optimistic he'll get in than I did a week ago.

That's cool.

That's good.

That's some good info in there.

We're going to go I'm actually, we're going to drill down on that actually and go through a couple of runners because you're probably more on top of the day to day news.

But my first question to you is who were you more impressed with, Slash?

Who ran the better race in the Santa Anita Derby, Journalism or Baeza?

I'm still going to give it to Journalism because I thought he had, you know, obviously he had that trouble heading into the turn and that took a lot out of him.

And because Westwood was able to get Baeza the trip he wanted, obviously, you know, the pace was quick enough to where Journalism could.

Could pick him off as well.

But Baeza stayed relatively clean throughout the race and I think that's one concern I'd have for him coming into the Derby is he really hasn't been beat around like some of these other good horses.

Most of horses higher up on this list have had bad trips in the past and that's why I have them up so high because they've capitalized on those often or still put up big numbers in the process and then obviously have their clean triple wins in their form as well.

So for this guy, he really hasn't had that awful trip that he rose above.

He's had things go his own way in his last two wins.

And so because of that, I do get a little skeptical that come Derby day it's all a bit too much for him.

But.

But we'll see how that goes.

But to answer your full question, I'd still want Journalism every single time ahead of him in the Kentucky Derby.

But I still think Baez is worthwhile and if Journalism doesn't have his, his A race, he's absolutely worth considering.

He might be the main threat if he makes the race.

Honestly to me, because I would rate them all, punt on my own question and say I'd rate them pretty much equally just from a dynamics point of view and from the way the track was playing point of view.

I mean time form had it bright blue as in favoring closers.

And Baeza, while on pace figures ran efficiently more or less through the race, did make that aggressive move in the middle of that race.

So it's a tough call honestly to me but for.

For that one.

But if he makes it, he's going to be fascinating.

So with that in mind, let's just go through quickly.

Citizen Bull, they say they the first 12 on the points list, they're going we don't need to waste time with that first one.

I look at that.

I have any question is is the 13 spot.

It's actually not 13 because I don't have these cells.

Right.

So it's.

Sorry about this.

I've created a mess.

I think he's about 10th on the list then Citizen Bull.

But everything you're hearing, he's going, right?

Yeah.

It sounds like all the Bafferts who could make the field will be going.

So him and Madikit Road.

Yeah, the horses you wouldn't kind of expect to go, honestly off those last efforts, they seem locked in at this point.

All right, I've got this, I've got this in correct order now.

So Sisson bull is currently 11th.

Number 12, Owen Almighty.

He's not going, is he?

No, he's out.

Yeah.

They, they, they say he's going straight to the Bat Day Mile.

They're going to cut him back like, like they probably should have.

Like Brian lynch wanted to.

And then the ownership pushed him to try one more Derby Prep.

Derby fever is a powerful.

It's a powerful disease.

Flood zone.

He's not going, is he?

Yes.

Yeah, they pulled him as well.

I don't know if they have given out a different target, but thankfully he's.

He's out as well.

So then Heart of Honor we know is not coming, Correct?

Correct.

And then that brings us down to.

Well, we know Flying Mohawk is going.

We do think Grande is going, right?

Grande is going for sure.

I think they already named a rider.

John Velasquez, I believe.

Hopefully I'm not speaking out of line there, but I'm pretty sure I saw something he's riding.

So they got someone lined up and.

Everything and Madicott is in.

We.

You just said of as part of that Baffer Group and then you said they're.

They're deciding about Built and Neo Equos, if my math is correct.

Does that mean the thing between Baeza and the getting in is.

Is the decisions of render judgment.

Assuming the Built at Neo Equus camps make good on what you were saying before.

Yeah, that would be the case.

So there's.

There's technically three horses keeping him out of the race.

Two of them could go other spots.

We'll see what their receiver does to them.

But because they'd be much better off in those other races.

I think another kind of universal opinion and the American turf being a grade one is huge incentive for a horse like Neo Echoes to go there because obviously you can get that major win Million dollar race without the pressures and the outcomes.

The fallouts of the Kentucky.

Yeah, I could just be rendered judgment who I imagine would run knowing the connections and how, how they like to be in these big races.

But of course, all it takes is anybody to have a bad day between now and, you know, well, I guess it is an entry day now and whatever day they need to be on the grounds for that decision to be made.

So.

Hold the phone.

Maybe Baeza makes it yet.

Let's get to this top five, starting with a very.

I keep calling him a very divisive runner because it seems like Sandman really has his fans and then he has his.

Well, JK is the, the, the president of the detractors.

He's been saying for, you know, ever since the, the first big trip that he had, that he was the kind of horse that was going to be everybody's wise guy horse in the Derby and he wasn't buying it.

Looked pretty darn good in Arkansas, though, mowing down that field.

I don't mind at all having him in the top five.

Even though he's long on experience for a modern three year old, he is a horse that feels like there's still some scope for improvement.

Definitely.

Definitely.

He's still getting better.

When we did one of these a handful of months ago, I said, this is a horse who's going to really excel come races like the Travers and maybe even the Breeders Cup Classic because he has that progressive pedigree, that progressive physical build where he's just getting stronger as the races get longer.

And he's doing it all right.

And now he's.

He is starting to find that top form.

The Derby is going to be a different question because he's still very green.

And I think that's more than anything the biggest issue with him is he still hasn't figured it all out down the lane.

He was drifting in and out.

The Derby's not a race he can really afford to make mistakes.

I can't count too many horses who made mistakes in the Kentucky Derby and even cracked, you know, the try or the super, unless they were supremely good and they had to overcome those types of trips.

Sierra Leone comes to mind.

Right.

Got his head.

If he runs, if he wants straight, either.

If he runs straight, either he or Forever Young win, but.

Exactly, exactly.

Yeah, I think that's, that's a perfect example.

So, you know, Sandman, he will factor.

He knows he always puts forward a good run.

I think that that's worth saying.

But how much he gets in his own way, how far off the pace he is early on, that's.

That's going to be a huge that will decide everything for him in the Kentucky Derby and obviously with the Arkansas Derby he got the perfect setup and really in the Rebel too.

So back to back races where everything went his way.

One, he won, win one solid third.

Let's say we do get a few defections or things go wild in the Derby at this point and there isn't as much pace.

Does he have that kicked to hang with them?

Remains to be seen.

So you have to be a little skeptical on him.

I don't blame anyone like JK for being skeptical on him.

And really I know JK's biggest thing is the price.

This horse will be hammered.

I will not be surprised if he is anywhere from second to third choice, fourth choice in this Derby taking a little bit more money than he probably should.

Yeah, at that price I feel like he's one you're supposed to maybe, as much as it pains me to admit, just accept that JK is right and, and oppose or muse more defensively.

Certainly a horse you're playing verticals.

I'm not leaving this horse out underneath.

I guess the other interesting storyline here and it ties exactly in with the later maturing pedigree angle.

Tap It.

Who?

I don't know.

You.

I'm going to ask you to do the broadcasting sin of asking you the question I have no idea the answer to.

What is the best finish for a Tap it in the Kentucky Derby?

You have any idea?

Oh, that.

That's a good question.

I can think of all the horses who are making the runs I can picture Sandman making in my mind which is just flying late and still crying out for another quarter mile like, like Tap Writ when, when he lost the Derby, went on to win the Belmont, he was flying late.

I mean he was looking for a third or fourth wire, forget a second one.

So I, you know, that's kind of what I picture for Sandman is, is what happened with, with Tapret if you, if you want a good comparison.

But a horse that's going to be progressive, maybe even into even a mile and a quarter.

Belmont probably suits this horse better than a 20 course Kentucky Derby.

But a lot of talent here.

But maybe Derby day is not his day.

Yeah, Tap It.

They've.

I mean I feel like from every grade one dirt race that happens for three year olds at and beyond after the first Saturday in May, I think Tapit's won every single one and no Derby yet.

So we'll see if Sandman can, can change that around for that old led, that big gray legend.

Tap.

Tap it.

Tapan street, number four on the list, a horse that I feel like, weirdly for a horse that has such obvious credentials at this point, has been maybe a tiny little bit under the radar in a lot of the Derby coverage that I've been paying attention to.

All he did was win the Florida Derby traditionally very much of a, of a key prep and he looked good doing it.

And he's in, he's in the right hands.

You obviously have him high up on the list here.

Give me your assessment of his chances in the Derby.

No, I definitely agree that he's being a little underrated right now.

It's probably because he doesn't have that big breakout figure for people to latch on to and I totally get that aspect.

But his progression and what he has shown in his two graded stakes starts, both lit up with, with strong form since then from other horses, I think that all has to be taken into consideration.

I think the fact he beat Sovereignty, even if it wasn't Sovereignty's best configuration, best track, which we'll talk about in a second, that's so impressive.

To beat that horse, to run a good second to Burnham Square, who was way more experienced than you, only your second start for Tapan street and to still run second to a future Grade one winner like Burnham Square, that's hugely impressive.

And when you go back and watch that race, this is, you know, at first I really didn't give him much credit out of the Holy bowl, but when I went back and watched it more, I was impressed by how well he settled from further off the pace than he probably wanted to be, made a strong move, did get passed down the stretch and kept fighting.

It wasn't like he stopped when Burnham Square got to him.

Then he goes back in the Florida Derby and he really puts it all together.

I think this is the horse he's just getting better with every start, has overcome adversity already and a few races, so, so that's key.

And I think he's probably the most malleable horse of this Derby field.

That cold battle we talked about earlier, having one from far back, having one on the lead, having one in between.

Pan street maybe hasn't done that, but he showed good speed over seven furlongs to sit really close to the pace.

He came from second to last in the Holy bowl and he's had a really good mid pack trip in the Florida Derby.

So the fact that in three starts he's already gotten all that experience is really encouraging to me because normally I wouldn't like a horse with this few Starts this is always a big thing for me in the Derby is, is that punched in the mouth factor and horses who have really been exposed to uncomfortable situations and risen above and most horses with that few starts haven't done that or have and they've run pretty flat.

This guy has just done it.

All right.

So I, I'm really encouraged by that.

I think the fact Brad Cox was based in Florida this year, really had his best stock in Florida this year where instead of maybe in fairgrounds or Oak Lawn or even in the Bluegrass, this was clearly the horse that he felt was best to have at his quote unquote home track this, this winter.

So that's also encouraging to me that Brad Cox seems to have supreme confidence in this horse as he's progressing towards the Derby.

And it doesn't surprise me the way that horses are trained now that you'd be a little bit more open to the lack of experience.

And we have seen a Derby winner with this few starts in the, in the past.

And it feels to me like you're going to see more inexperienced horses doing well as opposed to fewer.

It's interesting.

This year there are a handful of them who have something akin to the traditional foundation that we used to look for in the Derby.

Before your time really even, I'd say.

But I have to think that it's not as much of a question mark as it would have been even 10 years ago.

Yeah, yeah, absolutely.

I mean it's still concerning because at the end of the day you're, you're working out a 20 horse field and the more experience absolutely.

The better for me as I handicap the Derby.

But the having three starts is probably as good of a number as you'll get for a horse that it's still considered inexperienced.

And obviously his form.

You really can't poke any holes in it.

Let's move on to Luxor Cafe, the Monster pods.

When I looked, this was the one that was doing the most business, which I guess makes sense.

People looking and searching for info because this horse is a foreign runner and he's interesting.

He's another one that's a bit, a bit divisive and figure wise we're gonna have our official Japanese equivalent figures as part of our in the money plus package.

But I'll give a sneak preview to what my understanding is from what I've looked at which is Randy Moss mentioned 9,293 for his best guess for the figure that's going to be lower than what our translated figure looks like.

But the Translated figure is still going to leave plenty of room between Luxor Cafe and journalism.

So that's the kind of range I think we're going to land in for our, our, our predicted figures.

But this is a horse where you can.

I don't mind if somebody almost takes the figures and throws them out the window.

Based on how visually impressive the Fukariu Run was, what do you think the ceiling is for Luxor Cafe?

And my theory, talking to Randy, was that, unfortunately, I think that everybody's now on board with this.

The Japanese are going to win the Derby within the next few years.

I think this horse could actually be over bet because I don't think he's as good as Forever Young was.

And we saw how hard, you know, it is even for a horse of that special talent level to win in the Derby, how everything needs to go right.

And it was also not a fast Derby last year.

Anyway, I've monologued too much on Luxor Cafe.

I'd love to hear your extended thoughts.

Yeah, I think it's.

It's trying to find the fine line between what this horse can actually do and what value you want to take in the Derby.

I think the sky's the limit for this guy.

He's got a great pedigree to start.

He's a full brother to Tafe Pharaoh, who is a champion dirt horse in Japan.

Made one or two starts in the Middle east and didn't get good trips in either of those races.

But that's a horse who I wish had come to America at some point, whether it was the Derby early on in his career or a race like the Breeders Cup Classic.

So he obviously has that going for him.

And so that kind of gives you a glimpse into what his progression could be, which is a champion dirt horse someday.

And then like you said, the value aspect, I do think that the Japanese are sitting on a.

On a Derby win, and I think this horse has every chance to do it.

Obviously, there's a few names standing in front of him, most notably journalism, but he, he definitely can factor because he's already proven his form a little bit.

He's beaten Admired Daytona, the UAE Derby winner on two occasions.

Now, once was a little bit more of a dog fight back in a maiden race in November, that he still overcame that.

That horse and beat him.

Then he did it in the Hyacinth.

Two starts to go for both of them.

And that was really not his configuration.

Both those wins came over one mile, and I don't think that's his best Distance.

I think that his two mile and eighth races are his best career races to date.

And the Fukuri win was so strong, you could just tell how much momentum he was gaining as the race went on and, and really leveled off very nicely down this stretch.

So I love the proven form.

I love that he's proven himself over the distance.

He seems like he can work out some decent trips from the spots he wants to or is most comfortable.

So all of those things going for him, it does just come down to at the end of the day, the price you'll take on.

It really depends.

I obviously journalism going to be the favorite.

It depends what happens with the Sandman from there.

It depends what happens with the Sovereignty from there.

Maybe even a little bit of a Burnham Square.

But I wouldn't be surprised if this horse is more bet than a tap and straight of Burnham Square.

Maybe in that 6 to 8 to 1 range, which honestly is a price I would take on him.

Anything less, that's where I'd get concerned.

Gotcha.

I don't think you'll see less than that unless there's a real shakeup in the market.

And I don't know.

He's also the kind of horse that might play considerably better in horizontal.

So I wouldn't give up on the idea of using him on some tickets somewhere.

If you like him, you, even if that win is a little skinny for you, I would need a little bit my own personal handicap from this far out.

I'd probably need a little bit longer than, than that price range for him.

Do you have any of your own personal figure insights or assessment into what kind of number you think he would have run last time in the, in the Fukaru?

Or is it more like what I was saying, that it almost doesn't matter because of the other factors around him.

I'm gonna go with with the latter there.

I, I just the how well he finished off that race.

I can trust the Japanese form based off of how well admired Daytona again ran in Dubai.

So.

So I was skeptical up to that point.

But when he put up that effort, jumped up big time in at Maidan, that told me all I needed to know about this horse that he was.

He was clearly a cut above the others from his nation.

That was something Forever Young did not have going for him at all last year.

Forever Young beat nobody heading into last year.

It was pure, you know, visual wins and obviously the, the calculated figures from there.

Yeah, so that helped him, but he had no backlash.

This horse has much more going for him on that front.

It's a great example of just different ways of looking at the world.

You're looking at it from a more traditionally it's a European perspective where you're being very form based about it.

I'm being a bit of a figure monkey and the reason I'm not giving the UAE Derby much credit is because I'm pretty sure that was a very slow figure time wise when you look at who was competing.

Not that, I mean, I guess it depends if you think Forever Young ran his race in the Dubai World Cup.

I'm basing, I'm basing it kind of off hit show, figuring Forever Young regressed wildly figure wise.

And if you make a calculation based on hit show, yeah, that becomes a mid-80s, low-80s, even UAE Derby.

And it, it allows me to discount these things.

I may be looking at it all wrong.

Anyway, we're going to be diving deep into the Japanese figures and maybe I'll land where you are, but right now I'm wanting north of of 10 to 1.

I'll do a full market recap actually internationally at the end of the show.

But let's talk about the top two.

We move next to Sovereignty.

It's funny, the last race not being super impressive for Sovereignty on one level, of course it's disappointing.

You want to see this horse that had was number one on our list, slash your list.

You want to see a visually impressive effort heading into the Kentucky Derby.

On another level, maybe this is exactly what he needed to fill out the, the bingo card for the in the Money Players podcast Mott with the target and that wasn't the target.

I don't know.

I mean, now when I talk about journalism and sovereignty, when I, when I've been talking about it publicly, I feel like I'm supposed to be picking journalism.

The enthusiasm I've had for him.

But when I sit down with the PPS and I look at the prices, I think there's still an argument maybe to be made for sovereignty.

As crazy as that sounds, ultimately.

I just mentioned the figure monkey that I am.

I think looking at the two PP cuts, there's a reason journalism is going to be half the price, if not shorter.

But can you make a case to yourself that sovereignty is still the one you want for this year's Kentucky Derby, even over journalism?

Absolutely.

Absolutely.

I, I think I, I, I, like you mentioned, I was disappointed with the Florida Derby initially when he had lost it, but then I remembered that even heading into the Fountain of Youth, I was not confident that Gulfstream was the track for sovereignty to thrive.

And he barely thrived.

When we go back and watch the Fountain of Youth, he had to do everything in his power to catch River Thames late.

With that short stretch, I don't care if the run up was extended.

That was not his configuration.

Right.

And even the mile and an eighth there, still not easy for a horse to come from that far back and win.

Substitute rider.

I mean, Manny Franco is very capable, but Junior Alvarado had clearly figured out what to do with this horse who I don't know if he's necessarily tricky, but has.

Has a way of going and having to adjust on the fly like that maybe wasn't the easiest thing.

And, and this is another one where if you just go through the form, I'm a little surprised at how little steam I've seen and maybe I'm just looking in the wrong places.

But for that win in the Street Sense last year, coming from dead last as a maiden in your first ever two turn race, mowing down a field like they're not even in the race and beating them by at least five lengths.

And then the horse you beat in Tiz Tastic and the horse right behind him in Sandman, both being horses going to win 100 point Derby Preps.

I know it's back in October, but that's at Churchill Downs and overcoming all of those other factors I mentioned that, that that should be the.

A much more key race than anything he's done this year.

Bill Mott's essentially giving him two solid preps to get him fit and ready for a Kentucky Derby.

But I don't, I don't think, obviously neither one of those is where he wanted them to shine.

He did not need that horse to win either of those preps.

He got one win, got a little unlucky in the second.

Just once again came down to configuration.

But back at Churchill Downs, this is going to be a much better horse who's going to run a much bigger figure because he's back where he wants to be.

So for that reason he's still behind Journalism, but the gap is not gigantic from 1 to 2 right now.

Very interesting.

And I'm absolutely hearing it.

You look and you see that Street Sense third race of the year.

This the third race of the year.

Heading under the Twin Spires.

He's an A on all tickets.

I'm going to be very chalky this year, I'm afraid.

Let's go to Journalism, who's number one on the list.

We've talked about this race already.

So we probably don't have to spend too much time on it.

Do you have any concerns about journalism in this spot, other than the obvious, which I would imagine is, you know, is he going to be able to get a trip having to pass presumably half the field?

At least that's the biggest concern.

But from there his form speaks for himself.

He's handled himself well.

I love that he got into trouble and the Santa Anita Derby and overcame that because that would have been my knock on him was that he kind of just did his own thing, but he somehow found trouble in a five horse field and was still able to overcome it.

So obviously really encouraging things from there.

The form has been backed up with Rodriguez being dusted by him in the San Felipe and then winning the Wood.

So no, it is all lining up for him to be the Derby winner.

I really do think so.

He's bred for it physically.

He just looks like a cut above some of most of these other horses in this Kentucky Derby and obviously he's got the figures to boot.

So he is, he really is the complete package.

And it's just going to be a matter of keeping the cleanest trip you can and having the Derby luck that you need.

Because at the end of the day every, every horse that wins Kentucky Derby has a little bit of luck on their side.

So we'll see how it all shakes out.

But.

But he really is just the complete package it looks like.

Let's take a look at some prices.

We'll start with journalism.

I'll cite the prices from what I call the sharpest book and then I'll give you a snapshot of what it looks like elsewhere.

Journalism.

3 to 1 favorite there.

As short as 11 to 4 in places.

As high at a couple of outlier books as seven to two.

Sovereignty sevens and sixes across the board.

Seven at the sharpest book.

Luxor Cafe.

This is an interesting one because the Sharp book has him the highest of anybody at 11 to 1 because maybe being a little more numerically oriented there, as short as 7 to 1 in other places.

And all the numbers in between 7 and 11 filled out variously.

Tapan street, another one where there's some disagreement.

Twelves at the sharpest book, as short as eight at other places that might just be bookies who don't do a lot of American racing trying to hold the horse safe.

Sandman.

12 at the sharpest book.

Tens and twelves everywhere.

Burnham Square.

14 at the sharpest book.

As short as tens in a couple places, but mostly 14s across.

Tis tastic pretty much universally.

20s, a few 16s thrown in there.

Citizen Bull, interestingly.

Interestingly, the sharp book has him pretty short at 16 compared to the 25s that are available.

But those prices there are all over the shop.

The market has no idea what to do with Citizen Bull.

I think it's safe to say, say final gambit.

25s at the sharpest book.

Baeza not even priced up everywhere.

20 at the sharpest book.

25s and even some 33s available in one place.

That might be a little interesting international people if you want to play dice with.

If he's going to get in the field.

If you can find the 33 to 1, that's not bad.

Cold Battle 25 at the sharpest book.

Rodriguez is an interesting one.

14 at the sharpest book.

And.

And some outliers up to like 33 to 1.

Grande listed as 25 East Avenue.

16 at the sharpest book.

They're clearly oriented towards these speedrunners.

Admire Daytona 40 publisher.

25 at the sharpest book.

40s and some other places.

And I think that's the last relevant price.

River Thames is still listed all over the betting.

Is he?

He's not going, is he?

He is.

It sounds like they haven't confirmed a rider yet, but I believe I read the other day he could still be in the derby field.

You know, that's okay.

Interesting.

But he is an element of a certain pace element.

So that's another positive for the journalisms and the sovereignties of the world.

No doubt about it.

And then, you know, bigger prices.

The rest chunk of gold to me.

Kind of an interesting long shot.

33 at the sharpest book.

50s elsewhere.

Hearing these prices, do you.

And I, you know, it's mean of me to hold your feet to the fire with no draw and weeks out.

But hearing the prices, combining them with your analysis, do you have a gut as to who your official selection might end up being and.

Or maybe the most interesting long shot for you to throw in there as well.

I mean I have a clear top two.

I think I have for about a month and a half now.

And that's journalism and sovereignty we'll see on Luxor Cafe.

But when I get down to how juicy the price is based off those numbers on Japan street, if I can get a 12 to 15 one, which is what I kind of expect and get the right draw for him, that's probably where I'd lean from a value perspective.

But.

But being more realistic and getting into the multis and whatnot, I, I think that's where, you know, journalism, you know, you get skinny on top and then have fun on the, on the bottom ends of those ones and see what happens because that's, that's probably where you're going to be making your money in this year's Derby.

The Derby is a funny race.

You know, some race on a Tuesday.

The idea that you could mess around with the top three choices in the betting and get anything outsized or worth pursuing would be kind of silly.

But in the Derby, I think you can, you know, there'll be so much money mixed around.

It's such a big field.

I'm not going to shy away if my top two picks are the top two in the market.

You can still go to war with that opinion and make some money.

Yeah, yeah, absolutely.

There'll be, there'll be plenty of good opportunities.

So it's going to be very exciting.

And I think we saw last year the two best horses did not win the Derby.

So that, that just shows you what, what could happen on the first Saturday in May.

Right?

The two best horses in the, in the race, you mean, let alone what they did going forward, then you have to go a lot further down to, to.

It's chaotic and, and it's.

When they're laboratories for chaos, you can't be completely shocked when, when crazy things happen.

A bit dirt.

One more Derby betting question for you that's more general in nature, a little less mean spirited, a little less feet to your fire.

What about your general wagering approach on Derby day?

What, which pools are you involved in?

Are you trying to hit it out of the park with the pick five?

Are you betting verticals?

Do you stick to win?

How do you approach it?

I'm probably vertical heavy.

Early on in my gambling career I, I tried to get go for the home runs and I, I quickly was humbled and said let's, let's be a little more logical here.

And, and so that's when I, I started to lean more towards the verticals and started to have a little more fun.

You know, I, I think that this year that's going to be the definite lean as I kind of referenced earlier, just with, with how top heavy it seems.

And, and then I can, I, I seem to be better at picking horses that finish third and fourth and actually win.

Actually that's, that's typically where I burn myself.

Getting the nice price in underneath and then not having the winner somehow.

So that, that's, that's the ultimate goal this year is to, to finally have it all come together.

That could be a real benefit at a bet like the Derby Super Facto, which I am assuming will once again be the topic of our how to make $100,000 at the Kentucky Derby video.

We had our friend Eric Bileck pull some great numbers last year.

If you could find that price horse to come in third and fourth.

I don't think in truth you're going to be getting $100,000 payout or anything if we're right about how formful it is.

But then again if you hit it enough times, you can, you can get it up there.

It's, it can be it, it's often very, very much of an overlay when it comes to that.

I can't resist that Derby Day pick five and was fortunate the other year thanks to listening to some other people on our final Answers panel.

Specifically who Philip Shelton throwing in a couple in spread races and ended up hitting it with Mage that ended up paying for a lot of of losing pick fives along the way.

We'll be covering that and our we got our final Answer show coming once again.

It's going to be live in Lexington Wednesday night Derby Week.

I think there's still a few tickets available.

I foolishly don't have a link at the ready.

We did send it out in a newsletter.

If you subscribe to our newsletter you can look it up there.

But if you're looking to attend, let me know and we'll, we'll get things sorted out.

We got a great team this year.

Philip is back with us and Maggie Wolfendale going to be in the chair as well along with JK and myself.

Always a fun time down there in Lexington with our with our friends at TaylorMade slash Medallion Racing.

What about you?

What is your Derby Day going to look like this year?

That's our second day of entries so I'll be busy in the morning but then we'll be we'll just be hanging out in the afternoon enjoying the big one.

I I I have a thing.

I cannot watch the Derby with too many people.

I I get way too stressed out both just from a from all the angles, from the wagering angle, from the horse safety angle.

I get, I get stressed out about all these things so I just horse.

I I need a small, small group of people who understand that I'm going to be stressed all hell during the last hour or so before the race.

I've got a funny one this year that I haven't said this publicly yet, but Perrin is actually in a really cool concert Derby Night So while I will be at Churchill during the week, I got to come back.

I'm going to not see this one live.

It'll be the first one I've missed in quite a number of years.

And I think that means.

I think the concert starts late enough that I have to make a decision.

Do I want to do a Derby party?

Understanding that that will put me in something that annoys me.

This is a pet peeve of mine.

And you probably can relate to this, too.

I'm sure you can.

In fact, where you've written and you've done all these show, you've.

You've basically done nothing but give your opinion for three weeks.

And then someone, just a friend who has clearly not been following your content, will say to you, oh, who do you like in the Derby?

And I, rather than answer, I'm tempted to just send them, like, 17 links.

Yeah, I think that's a.

That's very funny you say that because that's where I.

What happens to me every day.

Like, you guys, I know you don't really care, but I'm tired of talking about this.

Like, I just.

I put my bets together already.

Like, here, just look at my.

Look at my phone.

See what bets I put in and then figure out the numbers from there.

Yeah, work it out yourselves, people.

Maybe I'll come up with a more diplomatic response than that.

Eric, so great having you on here, not just today, but all.

All season long, all the work you do behind the scenes.

And very happy that even in your new role, while you won't be able to do the full depth and breadth of things you've been doing for us over the last couple of years, that you'll still be hopefully able to be involved on the.

On the content side as long as the races aren't happening at your home track.

Yes, absolutely.

I mean, it's.

It's fun to do.

I mean, we've been doing this for over three years now, this.

This little team whatnot.

So it feels.

Feels a little shorter than that.

It's gone by pretty quick, but I enjoy it every time.

And the Derby's the best one because that's when things get a little crazy and we get to have a lot of fun putting out all this good content.

Exactly.

And you've been a huge part of it and just, I don't say enough how important you are to that team.

And so glad you'll be staying involved and chiming in where appropriate going forward.

And, hey, hopefully helping us with next year's Kentucky Derby as well.

But we don't have to worry about that until the first Sunday in May.

That's the first time we're allowed to talk about next year's Derby and it's just been a pleasure to have you, my friend.

Yeah, no thank you.

It's good.

As always.

Good stuff.

Eric DeCoster thank you one more time.

Thanks to everybody out there for supporting these shows.

Fun to do some audio only content.

We don't do enough of that these days.

We'll thank our founding partners at Ten Strike Racing.

We love to root for the purple and black around here.

Also, we will talk about our charity partners, Therapeutic Horses of Saratoga.

Kim we are doing such a great job there with a great team.

Meg and everybody else over there at THS learn more about the work they do helping humans and helping horses in the money podcast.com Horses is the place to learn more.

Most of all though, I want to thank all of you, the listeners for making these shows so much fun to do.

This show has been a production of in the Money Media.

I'm Peter Thomas Fornitel.

May you win all your photos.