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GM43: On the Verge of Recession ft. David Rosenberg
24th May 2023 • Top Traders Unplugged • Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
00:00:00 01:06:11

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Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research as we discuss the global macro outlook and why David believes the US economy is on the verge of recession. We examine the parallels between the current economic cycle and past cycles, particularly the 1920s and 1970s, and discuss how past Fed tightening cycles have played out for the economy and asset prices. David lays out his case for why he is sceptical of the narrative that inflation will remain sticky and outlines the key indicators he is monitoring that suggest that the US economy will soon be in recession. We discuss debt, demographics and deglobalization and whether these will inflationary or disinflationary forces over the coming decade.

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Episode TimeStamps:

03:23 - Introduction to David Rosenberg

08:00 - Rosenberg's research process

11:56 - The importance of historical awareness

25:00 - Disruptions in the demand curve

31:16 - Getting the timing right

43:54 - The longer term trajectory

52:58 - Dealing with high debt levels

57:12 - A shift in the political landscape

01:00:56 - Learning more about global macro

01:05:02 - Thanks for listening



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