HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Thursday Margin Monitor for September 24, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Everybody has an answer for making beef cheaper. I’m just not convinced everybody understands what it takes to put it on the dinner plate — especially in Washington. Until you’ve shoveled inedible byproducts beneath a slaughter floor in a hundred-degree-plus heat just to keep the line running, or spent ten hours inventorying meat in a minus-ten-degree blast freezer while it’s over a hundred outside in West Texas, you don’t really understand the work behind putting meat on America’s dinner tables. You don’t forget those days. Now immigration enforcement is raising workforce concerns in southwest Kansas. Congress is debating beef imports while domestic fresh ninety C L sits ninety-one cents above imported lean. USDA is working to rebuild the cattle herd while suggesting consumers consider other proteins when beef gets expensive. And hell, if that isn’t enough, I paid six forty-nine a gallon for diesel yesterday here in Oklahoma. At this rate, I’m going to need a second mortgage just to fill up the truck. Everybody wants affordable beef. But before Washington starts telling everybody how to make it cheaper, maybe we ought to appreciate what it takes to put it on the damn plate.

HOST: Immigration enforcement raises workforce concerns across southwest Kansas beef processing as cattle slaughter remains down seven point six percent year-to-date. Feedlot losses deepen while packers maintain positive estimated margins. Congress enters the beef import debate with domestic fresh nineties priced ninety-one cents above imported lean. Diesel costs, Black Sea grain disruptions, and major protein investments in Southeast Asia add to an already busy week.

SHAWN: KMUW reported Thursday morning that New Frontiers, a southwest Kansas civic organization, alleged ice agents entered National Beef’s Dodge City facility Wednesday and removed employees from the production line. NPR’s Midwest Newsroom could not independently confirm that account. National Beef’s Liberal operation separately altered employee starting times. A Cargill employee in Dodge City described coworkers not reporting to work. Reuters reported traders linking some reduced slaughter to employees staying home. The amount of production lost specifically because of immigration enforcement remains unverified.

HOST: USDA estimated Wednesday’s cattle slaughter at ninety-four thousand, versus one hundred two thousand the previous Wednesday and one hundred twenty-one thousand nine hundred fourteen a year ago. Week-to-date two hundred ninety-nine thousand against three hundred fifty-one thousand one hundred nine last year. Year-to-date down seven point six percent. Those numbers establish the reduction in processing, but not its precise cause. Cargill’s Fort Morgan facility is recovering gradually. Steiner cited media reports placing operations at about twenty-five percent of expected capacity. Fed cattle slaughter totaled four hundred twenty-four thousand last week, down five point seven percent year over year. Steiner projects about four hundred sixteen thousand this week.

SHAWN: Sterling estimates feedlot losses widened to three twenty-three sixty-eight a head, versus three oh seven nineteen the previous week and a profit of six twenty-three eighty-two in the comparable week last year. Packer margins remained positive at one thirty-eight eighty, down from one seventy-seven sixteen. Cattle marketed last week carried an estimated two forty-five breakeven against an average Choice steer of two twenty-one eighty-eight. Hales estimates packer margins one twenty-five to one fifty. Steiner reports improved processing economics since early August through higher comprehensive beef values, lower cattle acquisition costs, and about twenty dollars a head more in byproduct value. These are modeled industry estimates, not individual packer financial results.

HOST: Choice closed three seventy-seven, down a cent fifty-eight. Select three fifty-two, down five fifty-one. Spread twenty-five cents. Choice deckle-off briskets averaged four twenty-nine. Kansas City barbecue operators continue reporting elevated beef costs. Hales places the current Choice brisket assessment about six cents below its comparable year-earlier level. A single wholesale cut does not represent a restaurant’s entire beef purchasing and operating costs.

SHAWN: Chicken. Wednesday slaughter thirty-four point nine five eight million birds. Year-to-date about seven point oh three four billion, up one point one percent. Nielsen I Q data reported by Meat and Poultry show turkey reaching eighty-seven percent of U.S. households. Ground turkey generated two point one billion in retail sales, up seven point seven percent, while volume declined one point seven. Higher dollar sales do not necessarily represent increased pounds consumed. Agri Star has resumed cattle and poultry slaughter after the July fire at Postville, Iowa. About four hundred of its former six hundred employees have returned. Current production volumes have not been disclosed.

HOST: Pork cutout declined a dollar seventeen to eighty-six eighty-two Wednesday. All six primals moved lower. Ribs down two sixty-eight. Picnics two sixty-five. Hams two forty-four. Bellies eased seven cents. Fresh forty-twos seventy-eight cents. Seventy-twos ninety-eight cents. USDA reported three hundred twenty-two point six four negotiated pork loads, including thirty-five point three four loads of trim and processing pork. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs is two p.m. Central today. QT Market Center pre-report estimates put total hogs, breeding hogs, market hogs, and the June–August pig crop near ninety-nine percent of year-ago. Those are analyst estimates, not USDA’s results. Bacon remains about seven billion in annual retail sales.

SHAWN: Platts reports Brazilian beef exports to China reached one hundred three point five percent of Brazil’s twenty twenty-six quota as of September twenty-first. China is auditing seventeen Brazilian beef, pork, and poultry facilities through September twenty-eighth. Uruguay has indicated willingness to allow Brazil to use part of its unused Chinese beef quota. Beijing has not approved the arrangement. Brazilian exporters are encountering weaker Chinese demand and elevated imported beef inventories. The European Commission has accepted Brazil’s poultry antimicrobial control protocols. Further formal approval remains necessary before shipments resume.

HOST: Black Sea disruptions are complicating grain movement. Reuters reporting via QT Market Center: Russian September wheat exports could fall to about one million metric tons, versus five point seven million a year earlier. Alternative Ukrainian routes can add about fifty dollars a metric ton. Coceral reduced its EU corn forecast to forty-eight point six million metric tons from fifty-two point seven in July. Tyson expects international sales to exceed last year’s two point three billion. JBS announced a proposed two point five billion partnership involving its Oceania operations and Indonesia’s sovereign wealth fund. Cargill announced another sixty million for its Thai poultry and feed operations.

SHAWN: Representatives Zach Nunn and Gabe Vasquez introduced the bipartisan BEEF Act, which would reverse the administration’s expanded beef import measure unless Congress approves it. It also proposes a Beef Import and Domestic Supply Advisory Board focused on rebuilding domestic cattle production. The administration’s temporary expansion is up to three hundred thousand metric tons of imported lean trimmings in three tranches from September through November. The BEEF Act has not been enacted. USDA is separately pursuing heifer-retention and domestic supply initiatives. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has also suggested consumers consider chicken, pork, salmon, and eggs when beef becomes too expensive. Herd rebuilding and near-term imported lean procurement address different supply timelines.

HOST: The ninety C L differential. Domestic fresh nineties, USDA September twenty-third: four ten twenty-three FOB plant. Imported nineties, Platts September twenty-second: three nineteen CIF East Coast. Indicative differential ninety-one twenty-three cents. That is not an automatic delivered saving. Product condition, origin, transaction basis, tariffs, inland freight, storage, specifications, and delivery timing still need to be considered. For buyers managing ground-beef formulations, that quoted-price difference is commercially significant. DTN reports U.S. distillate inventories at one hundred seven point four million barrels, down twelve point seven percent year over year. Freight assumptions matter when translating a quoted product price into an actual delivered cost. What is available? What does it cost delivered? When will it arrive? Does it meet the customer’s specification?

SHAWN: Snapshot. Choice three seventy-seven. Select three fifty-two. Fresh nineties four ten. Eighty-fives three thirty-five. Fifties eighty-four cents. Pork cutout eighty-seven cents. October live cattle two twenty ninety-two, up two fifteen. Feeders three thirty-three thirty-two, up five thirty. December corn five twenty-nine. November crude ninety-two sixteen. Wednesday slaughter: cattle ninety-four thousand, down seven point six year-to-date. Hogs four hundred eighty-six thousand, down one percent. Chicken thirty-four point nine six million, up one point one. Year-to-date production pounds have not been verified and are not being estimated from slaughter counts.

HOST: Bottom line.

SHAWN: Southwest Kansas processing schedules remain an immediate consideration for cattle marketings and beef availability. The extent of production disruption attributable specifically to immigration enforcement is still unconfirmed. Feedlot losses continue to deepen while packers maintain positive estimated margins. The ninety-one-cent domestic-import ninety C L differential keeps imported lean firmly in the procurement discussion, with actual landed cost and delivery timing determining the opportunity. Today’s Hogs and Pigs report adds another supply benchmark. Brazil’s export access, global grain movement, and fuel costs remain important. For this business, the decisions still come down to supply, specification, delivered cost, and timing. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Thursday Margin Monitor for September 24, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.