Join us on the Relearn Our History podcast as we dive into the complex world of African country unification. From historic federations like the Ghana–Guinea–Mali Pact to modern day examples like Tanzania’s union, our discussion explores what has worked, what hasn’t, and why. We also examine global perspectives, economic considerations, and the political dynamics that shape Africa’s pursuit—or avoidance—of unification.

Listen to the lively debate with my my guest, Dr. Wale Aboyade, on what is practical and what would be optimal.

This is the lan, our History podcast journey with us as we travel from

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central all the way to Eastern Africa.

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Let's lan our history.

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Karibu

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Good morning, Wally.

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How are you?

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How is in Sunny Grand family?

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Wale: Good morning.

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grand family is not so

Sunny's, but it is warm.

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I'm fine.

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Thank you for asking.

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How are you?

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How is I, Kenya?

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Naomi: Yeah on the Kenyan coast

it's still pretty beautiful.

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Gorgeous.

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You should visit.

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Today we are diving into a

fascinating discussion on,

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unification between country.

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So whether that's political,

economic, also one.

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Of course this is an Africa podcast, so

we are going to be very focused in Africa.

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We are going to talk about some, examples

of unification in Africa's history, why

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they worked, why they didn't and what

that might look like in the future.

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We'll mix in some global

examples and some global context.

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But yeah, let's start, let's pick it off

with one that I knew very little about.

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So one day, what did you learn about

in history, in school back in Nigeria

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on the Ghana, Guinea, Mali Federation,

and if not in school where have you

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had ever heard of this federation

and where did you hear about it from?

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Wale: So first of all, we learned very

little in school about African history

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or any history at all, to be honest.

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At least I did.

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Because the way we were taught in school

was, you're taught history at a very

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basic level, mostly national history as

part of social studies in primary school.

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And any other thing you do on history

in secondary school tends to be

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more specialized and depending on if

you're picking history as a subject.

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And I was a five student,

so I never really did that.

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Not a lot of background information

other than, a little bit of

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general, nationalist history of West

Africa and the different empires.

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And so the specific point of the

Ghana, Mali, GU point, most of it's,

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I know it actually through songs.

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there's been a bunch of songs that

were popular at some point that can

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have songs around this, disconnection.

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I understand it was part of

that Pan-African movement in

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the sixties, , around the time

of KanK crewman, of course.

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we had this set of leaders back

then who had, marked his views,

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but also quite Pan-African views.

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And between him, between the famous

secretary who I had one of my, friends

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named Ata, his father was so into

secretary that he actually named this

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guy secretary as he has two first names,

. And I forget the name of the man guy.

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But between those three guys, they

were part of this term bridge that

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decided that they were going to, create.

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I think it became a pre, because I'm

not sure if this happened before.

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AU or somewhere, or while the au was

existing, but they were, so they were

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going to use three countries as like

a foundation for its eventual union of

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African states or something like that.

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and yeah, that's as far as I know,

I don't think it went very far.

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But you have studied

this a bit more, right?

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Naomi: when we started doing

research for this episode is when I

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started looking at different exam.

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the example that I know of is the

one that's closer to me in Kenya

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in Tanika and Zanzibar that we

are gonna talk about a bit later.

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I studied history in high school.

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You could be a science student, so

you could do all three sciences,

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biology, chemistry, and physics.

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But you could also have two

humanities if you wanted my

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mother is a humanities teacher.

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she taught religious studies,

geography, and history.

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I picked history and geography in high

school, and I loved history, as you can

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guess by the fact that I started the

whole podcast to talk about history.

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but of course, like you said, Komen

Rumba, who has never heard of Komen

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Rumba, was this giant, African giant.

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Did think about an Africanism and

tried to champion the United Africa.

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But the specific story on this

Ghana gal Federation, the reason it

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fascinated me is because beyond Kwame

Kma, it's somebody that I had never

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had, this guy that you're saying your

friend was named after secretary.

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And the reason he's so epic is because,

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same as other French colonies or

whether they would like to join what

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was called the French community.

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This Federation of former French

colonies that will continue to enjoy

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close ties with France, get development

support, have one constitution.

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But Guinea, in 1958, during the

referendum, they voted no to

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joining the French community.

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And so they became one of the

first African countries to gain

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independence because of that.

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And secretary was the

Guinea and president then.

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And of course once they decided to

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French withdrew all of their support.

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you can imagine as a new nation

state, that has not yet, gained

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its footing quite, destabilizing.

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I think I would imagine Kamen

Koma having had this vision.

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For a long time for Pan-Africanism.

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So this was an opportunity.

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and he actually offered Bini 10 million

Euro loan to help bridge the gap that the

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French had left behind when they decided

to withdraw their development support.

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they decided that they were going to form

a federation between Ghana and Guinea.

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and then a couple of years later, you

then had ma Mali, that played, formed

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Senegal and joined the Federation anymore.

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Kuma was the most enthusiastic,

leader in this association of three.

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And so they started to have meetings,

heads of stage, conferences that

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was the governing body, but it

wasn't quite coming together.

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And they called it the Union of African,

the you are Right one that, that's the

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name that they came up with for it.

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And it was supposed to be, as you said,

the foundation of a unified African,

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but it wasn't quite coming together

because every country was what was

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afraid of being subsumed or be seen

to sub be subsumed by another country.

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And so even though Oma was very

enthusiastic, things never , quite

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went very far, because there were

no institutions that were formed.

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, The economic corporation

really did not come together.

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The one currency did not come together.

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And in 19 61, 19 62, 19 63, that

started to show and eventually with

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the formation of, the organization

of African Unity, which is now.

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The African Union in

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But in Guinea, the points on the loan that

Ghana also took Guinea of 10 million, 10

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million euros while you and I have worked

in the development sector, that's pushed

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a lot of money in 19 58, 19 59, 19 60

for one African country to offer another.

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But actually Guinea never

really fully utilized that.

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But it was such a powerful demonstration

that we can be independent and

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we can stand for ourselves.

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waley, anything to add on this?

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This is your part of the world,

so anything to add on this?

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Wale: One interesting thing that

you did, you mentioned was how,

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secretary rejected the French,

offer . 'Cause I remember that story.

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About one of the many reasons

secretary is popular other than

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in, in Ian actually, was that.

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because he did that the French weren't

entirely happy they didn't just walk away

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They actually tried to undermine

this guy by ruining the Indian frack.

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They created counterfeit notes

of the gland France because they

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didn't want to be part of Cefa

to actually ruin the country.

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Oh, wow.

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Yeah.

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So back then the things

were, even till now, right?

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These guys or Stan can be

an extremely dirty affair.

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And there are other reasons

why Guinea didn't work out.

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I think that one of the biggest things

our Pan-African is leaders back in

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the sixties is that they had all of

this Marxist thinking and Maxism could

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just never work for a growing economy.

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And that's really what killed us when

it comes to political economy was while

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they had good warism as a cultural

thing was great, they, the economic

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drive that was supposed to drive it

was missing because that's not just

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Max Maxim can give you that, that

growth from where we were coming from.

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And that, I think that's the bigger

reason why Guinea didn't work out,

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is that they just were not also on

the proper economic growth part,

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France didn't help by trying to undermine

them by destroying the currency through

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this anti obviously illegal way.

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So yeah.

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Naomi: Yeah, that's super interesting.

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But to your point on the Marxist

ideologies of the Oma and a few

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of our sounding African fathers.

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That was actually one of the pain

points with this federation, right?

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a lot of countries wanted to pursue

what we called non-alignment,

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during the Cold War, right?

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And so didn't want to be seen to

be favoring one side or the other.

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And so siding with a person like in Roma

and even the other example that will be

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of right, could be seen as taking aside.

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And so that's exactly one of the

reasons why this was such a difficult

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bell is that not everybody in the

party agrees with the ideologies under

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which they're coming together under.

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let's move to the other

example on Tanika and Zanzibar.

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this one I am super familiar

with because I live in Kenya.

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if you live in Kenya, you've

had about Mo limo, Julius rere.

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And for those that don't know,

Mamu is Swahili for teacher.

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So he's a beloved.

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African leader who supported a

lot of independence movements

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across the continent.

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Super smart, intentioned also very

communist leaning, which is a bit

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of a theme with our African leaders.

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It's one of those stories where it's

actually not a hundred percent clear,

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but he came up with the idea of unifying

Tanika, what was then Tanika and Zanzibar,

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but he's the one who saw it through link

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where he's talking about African unity.

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he was super passionate

about African unity.

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And one of the things that he said that,

resonated with me was that, African

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unity basically will not make us rich.

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But it can make it difficult

for Africa and African people to

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be disregarded and humiliated.

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So let's move back to 1964.

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It's a few years after independence

of Tanika from Britain.

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Zanzibar has also gained the

independence and Sheik ab obey, Ani

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Caroma of, Zanzibar decided to unite.

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it was a delicate union forming

process because at that time,

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Zanzibar was a very small state.

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It was only about 300,000 people, and

Tanga America was 12 million people.

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And so there had to be, a way in

which to create a federal state.

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That does not the needs

and the priorities of Zika.

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so the name they came up with is Tanzania.

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it's a really good name.

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I really like it.

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that was signed in 1964 and it's

now known as the Jam Tanzania, which

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basically means the United Republic.

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one of the agreements was, a

political format that trans up to

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today, where if the president is from

what was then tamal, then the vice

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president or the deputy president is

from Tan and the other way around.

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So the current president of Tanzania,

. Mama Samir is actually from Zanzibar.

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She was the deputy president while Marco

Foley, the late president before he

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succumbs to COVID, during the pandemic.

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So she then became, president

following his death.

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But anyway that's a successful,

I would say, fairly successful

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unification story and one of the

actually successful of the continent.

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And I would say if I look at the

characters of both leaders in Koma, rere,

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I will think one of the things about

rere is that he was super diplomatic.

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Maybe had a softer approach

to things further than K did.

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that might be why this worked, he also

wasn't too ambitious with it, right?

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He just unified with an island role

off his coastline, where probably

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the people and the culture is a bit

more homogeneous and not trying to

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unify across multiple French speaking,

English speaking different communities

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like in ide do its own federation.

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So that's the other

example from the continent.

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Juan, do you know anything

about the Tanzania story?

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Wale: no.

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I now also remember that there was,

this idea also that my, remember my

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mother used to talk about, she was

also a teacher, math teacher, but

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she liked Garcia and history and she

talked, she used to talk about Sen

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Gambia a lot, when we were young.

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can't remember what context,

but I just remember that name.

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I remember it somehow, but obviously

that didn't work because Senegal

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a Gambia are still too different

countries, even though they're like

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right inside each other in very weird.

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not, but not as much inside each other

as still tu in South Africa, for example.

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Which, it's another odd example,

an obvious case for unification.

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'cause the country just totally

a hundred percent in another

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one, yet it just doesn't happen.

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and I know we will unpack this, but

the reason I say all that is that

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the Tanika, Bel one strikes me as the

one, only one really that happened.

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And that is massively curious to me.

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yeah, remain wonder why it

worked, and has it really work?

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And why hasn't there been more?

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Naomi: Yeah, it's a really good question.

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Wale: Yeah.

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And maybe just to reflect on that, I

know you're just talking about when

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we think of, pre-colonial times,

actually in some ways their unification

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did happen, but not led by Africans.

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So Nigeria being a really good

example where Nigeria, under the

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colonial government, at one point

it was two separate colonies.

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There was the, Southern protector, in

fact three separate colonies The Lagos

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protector it Lagos, one is on colony.

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Then there's the red from the

south, which is mostly now Nigeria's

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major Delta and the eastern part.

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That was his own sort of like protector

rate with his own colonial level lot.

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And then there was the north,

and the southeast was actually

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combined with Cameroon.

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So it used to be, south Nigeria and

the cam and some parts of Camero

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together as one protector rate.

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the colonial leaders Britain at the

time actually unified, these three

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different, had no reason to be together.

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The north and south of Major Nigeria,

though historically had, natural trade

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reasons, but they were not one nation in

any sense of the world or one country.

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And they were forced

and fused them together.

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And I think there are many examples.

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As the part of that Berlin conference,

that whole drawing of lines through our

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colonial masters of forced unification,

they're different from the kind of

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unification that we're talking about here,

which is a bit more voluntary and even

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by Africans with a clear African agency.

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And I just thought, it just occurred

to me that, someone could think

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that, Nigeria is a good example of

unification, but in some ways it is.

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But from an African

perspective, it's probably not.

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Naomi: Yeah, exactly.

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Agency is an important point here, right?

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That people are unifying because they

want to, not because they're forced.

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, the interesting thing is see, in this part

of the world, the stories at least I heard

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about and that I learned about Nigeria

were mostly about secessions, right?

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First, the war.

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And those are the things that live

in my imagination about Nigeria.

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I just wanted to pivot a little bit

Bali and hear your thoughts on if you

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were to look at the current states of

the continent and where we are now and

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the global geopolitics, would you say

that unification of more African state,

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whether economically or politically

would be a good idea and, why would

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it work and why wouldn't it work?

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Wale: Yeah, no, every question, but

maybe before that I remember that

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there was a question I asked you

quite good answer to, I, because I'm

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generally curious about the Taika

example, whether you think that worked.

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If you could imagine a scenario

where that didn't happen, will both

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parts have been worse off in that?

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And I know this is a hypothetical

because what's the tactual here?

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It did happen.

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But if you could imagine that

scenario, what would you see?

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Your gut feeling about

whether that unit has worked.

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That, that is pretty cool.

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But yeah.

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What do you think, and maybe also

do people in that area think,

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the Tanzanians think that this

was a good next, over Yeah.

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Now 50 years later.

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Naomi: Yeah, it's more

than 50 years later.

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I think Tanzania and Kenya

have an interesting, there's an

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interesting dynamic between us.

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I love Tanzania.

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Beautiful.

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But so I will not

attempt to speak as soon.

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Lot coming

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Wale: can,

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Naomi: I'll not attempt to

speak on behalf of my Hindu.

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Good.

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And dad, from Tanzania and

when a, this has worked or not.

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I've had different perspectives over

the years from people from Zanzibar

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and people from the mainland on

whether this is working or not.

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On one hand, I've heard some people say

that, re might have given up too much in

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terms of political power to zaba, given

how small this was relative to Tanika.

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And, maybe they could have gotten

away with less, but then on the

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other hand, to the fact that it

has stood the just of Tide, right?

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The fact that it's still here 60

whatever years later is such a great

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testament that whatever rere thought

about and whatever Nere conceptualize,

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, it's worked for the most part.

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Because when I think about it, I

think about Tanika the mainland.

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Tanzania the mainland has a lot of natural

resources, obviously has way more human

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capital than Ziba back then was a really

small, still a relatively small, state.

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And so if it had been left by its own,

it probably would not have had access

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to some of the opportunities that it

does now, but even the other way around.

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Zanzibar has a lot of tourism.

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I think that's what anybody who doesn't

know much about the continent, when they

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hear Zanzibar all they think's beautiful

beaches, amazing tour opportunities.

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I think there's been pros I would say

there've been more pros and there have

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been cons from my university in Kenya.

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I wonder if a Tanzanian history

historian and the Tanzania political

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economi to would agree with that.

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I also think one of the reasons it might

have worked is because Tanzania has

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been ruled by the same party students

independence, and this party is made

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up of people from, , the mainland

and the island, but it's been the

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same ruling party since independence.

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And so maybe the political ideolog is

this thing to some extent has contributed

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to the staying power because maybe

if they had gone into what Kenya went

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into with the multi-party democracy

and all of this very fragmented

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political reality, then maybe it

would not have stood the test of time.

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But at this point it looked like it's

going well and Tanzania seems to be

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on the up and up again in some ways.

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So I would say it's been a success.

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Wale: But I do wonder

now just reflecting that

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if it has been good specifically for

Zan ZBA as much, even though, like you

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said, it gives them some access to the

mainland and that bigger market and so on.

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But if you look at many of

other island states, right?

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Zanzibar perhaps are fed better

surviving on its own as an island state.

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'cause many of the island states

on that East African coast are

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doing way much better, right?

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If you look at hills, if you

look at Mauritius they are like

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by GP capital almost 10 times

the, inland state GDPP capital.

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So there might, of course there's no

guarantee that Zanzibar will suddenly

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have evolved in that direction, from

low of averages, if you just look, it's

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just, people have made the argument

sometimes that it's easier to deal

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with a relatively small economy, than

it is to deal with the large one.

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Although there are arguments

on the other side of it.

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I think if I was someone from Ziba and I

look up at GDP and I look at, okay, yeah,

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the one for Tanzania needs, it's closer

to the rest of, the inland neighbors.

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It's a bit lower than Kenya, somewhere

within that broad range, right?

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It's not spent times.

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Eight times difference.

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So I would be thinking maybe I would've

been closer to Mauritius if I was my

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own state than now where I am closer

to Kenya, in terms that subject.

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Naomi: Yeah, that's, yeah, I would,

yeah, I would love to get a but this

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is me putting it into the universe.

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I would love to get a antibody

economies to come in and talk about

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these different aspects and what

could have happened differently.

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The what if it not something

we are promoting just not does.

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Yeah.

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But it would be interesting to see

that counter narrative because to

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be fair, yeah, they're looking at,

sea, they're looking at Mauritius,

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but I'm also looking at Madagascar.

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I'm looking at some others that

I also haven't done so well.

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That in theory, I'm very similar.

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Similar dynamics.

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So yeah, think it would be interesting

to hear from somebody who's actually

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the toes then yeah, that's me.

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And you go find somebody who

can actually tell us what's the

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reality and what we've been.

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All

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Wale: I'd really like is actually to

go there and ask for myself because

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for, places that still hurts me

to say that I haven't been before.

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And I'm taking a really, personally

with the Tanzanians 'cause for some

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reason it's just impossible for

Nigerian to get a visa there, or not

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impossible, but they do make it tough.

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And then you have to then get a special

visa for Ziba, which is just really extra,

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for what is already a tough thing to do.

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So at Tanzania, brothers and

Zanzibar brothers and sisters,

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you're listening to this.

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Let's fix that.

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So that we can come in there,

we can ask you these questions.

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Naomi: I feel like that is a selfish

one because you are on a beach.

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We can

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Wale: walk and chew gum.

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We can sit at a beach,

can ask these questions.

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Naomi: I totally agree with this plan.

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And okay, the passport discrimination

on the continent is a bit crazy.

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So anyway, so there's lots you can

talk about, but that is actually

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related to unification, right?

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Why things are not working, whether

it's political unification, like

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economic unification or whatever.

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Wale: Yeah.

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That goes to your bigger question about,

why then not be more unifications,

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whether there should be more unification

stories the way I think about it is

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what's actually best for the continent

from an economic point of view.

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Because I find it hard to judge

how well we can advance without

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actually advancing our economy.

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I know that, money is in everything

and economy is in everything.

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And there are many things that

are more important than it.

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But, a strong economy to my

mind drives many of the other

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good things that we want to see.

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It drives environmental sustainability.

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It drives the quality of life for people.

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It drive improve health outcomes.

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It drives, the ability to

preserve your culture against,

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outside negative influence.

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I'm just looking at it from

that perspective for now.

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We can look at it from other

perspectives, later on.

400

But from the economic perspective,

I just can pick some pros and cons.

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What you've seen is that it can be

relatively, and it intuitive sense

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that maybe relatively easily to manage

a smaller group of people than it

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is to manage a bigger group, right?

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So by, the political economy, the human

dynamics of it's just way more complex.

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And if you look on average, many of

the smaller island states actually tend

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to be richer than the not small ones.

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But this time, this mostly island states,

if you look inland, it's not necessarily

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true that, your ProGo is maybe much better

managed than, your Ghana or your Nigeria.

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That's, that doesn't follow.

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But it is curious that at least for

many I learned state that seems to hold.

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But intuitively we can all imagine that

a smaller state that is more homogeneous.

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This is the other thing about maybe

what a smaller state can manage.

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It's easier to manage, easier to put on

some economic direction or the other.

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And it's easier to actually

implement policy because you

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just have less internal tension.

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It doesn't remove the internal

tension, but you generally have less.

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So that's, for me, is a massive

con for more fragmentation

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even beyond what we have now.

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But and many at that point in

Nigeria, for example, now you may

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know, as you said earlier, what

people hear from outside Nigeria.

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So we do have this tendencies

that's a central petal force.

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The tendency to push ourselves apart

'cause of all these ethnic divisions.

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And many people have made the argument

that actually the country will work better

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if those divisions are allowed to happen.

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And then each subgroup, then grows as a

subgroup that is, you know, more cohesive.

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There is that argument to be made.

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Lemme let you respond to that side.

428

Naomi: No, I think that's such an

interesting perspective because the reason

429

people in my view ask to separate from

the center is because they see that the

430

trickle down economic, that are promised

by unification did not come to bear.

431

Because in the 20, I think it was before

432

I'm sitting in the coast of Kenya, there

was a big movement from a group from

433

the coast that wanted to break apart

from the rest of Kenya because they felt

434

like they were behind economically and,

they were not getting their fair share.

435

When it comes to economic prosperity.

436

And so they wanted to break apart and,

become, in charge of their own destiny.

437

And I imagine that's the same might

be the same reason that you have a

438

lot of this the socialist tendencies

even in West Africa and other places.

439

And to your point on, is it easier

to manage a smaller group of

440

people and a smaller piece of land?

441

It depends on whether those people

have the right human capital and

442

whether you have actual resources

that you can exploit, right?

443

Or are you dependent on some other

region generate economic returns.

444

And then you then benefit from that.

445

If you don't have much in terms

of economic resources, including

446

human capital, then that's,

that theory falls apart, right?

447

What are you going to develop based on,

or is this just a political movement?

448

Because some people would like a piece of

the pie and it's harder to get a piece of.

449

a federal pie than it is to

get a piece of original pie.

450

You know what I mean?

451

Wale: That is a good point, but I

think the one people say easier to

452

manage a small group it's, from the

perspective of you can't get it any

453

success in any of these things that you

mentioned, whether it's human capital

454

or being able to take advantage of your

resources without some level of cohesion.

455

In fact, that's some without a really high

level of question where there's less time

456

fighting each other and more time moving

in the and so I, I would say that I think

457

it doesn't matter where you start from

in terms of human capital when you know

458

from the point of view of being small.

459

What's most important is

actually being cohesive.

460

No matter how small you are, if

you're cohesive, you can go far.

461

Singapore is a very good example.

462

They started no much better in

capacity terms than the much bigger

463

neighbor Malaysia, back then.

464

But because they were cohesive and

they speak that cohesive thing, when

465

they then chose some economic pathway

to go, they can actually implement it.

466

And bearing is the success.

467

Whereas there are bigger enabled

that had more resources, arguably

468

more capacity in militia at the time.

469

Spend all this time just fighting

each other instead of moving in

470

together in the same direction.

471

So I think the point about being

small is that it's about cohesion.

472

And once you have cohesion you can

overcome pretty much all of these things.

473

If it's capacity need to build,

once you all agree to build

474

the capacity, you'll build it.

475

I don't know if that makes sense.

476

Naomi: No, yeah, that, that makes sense.

477

So I was playing Devil Advocates because

I was thinking about, and it's an

478

interesting counter to, if you look at

Rwanda, Andi, which I'm basically in terms

479

of the demographics, they're actually the

same people, across both countries and

480

watching what Kagame has been able to do

in Rwanda through peace a period where,

481

there was stability and peace, after the

genocide and how Burundi has struggled.

482

Your point on cohesion, right?

483

Burundi's primary challenges

were people was right.

484

There were internal difficulties.

485

And yeah, I, answering devil,

I was educated, but I was also

486

thinking, like I, I think cohesion

is great and then you need a vision.

487

Actually have cohesion.

488

Just singing, sitting around

singing Kumbaya is not

489

Wale: Unless a cult,

490

Naomi: unless you're a cult, in

which case, are not important.

491

But what are you saying?

492

What would you say we seeing

on the continent mind terms

493

of, cohesion and, cooperation.

494

Yeah, unification

495

Wale: that, not a lot of it unfortunately.

496

And this is why I think that

the argument, this role.

497

That's one reason why fragmentation

might make sense, if it's in order to

498

achieve better cohesion if somehow,

we just cannot leave together as a

499

people, then let's, agree to move apart.

500

Counter Nigeria to many of the

secessionist movement has been each

501

of these ethnic groups and tribes

themselves aren't so much right.

502

The Yuba never agree between themselves.

503

The evils never agree.

504

So if you split on ethnic lines,

you're just creating a sliding slope

505

to more splits down the line, then each

part of Yoruba will say, oh no, we,

506

we don't agree with the other part.

507

And so the option is splitting.

508

So there, this thing, this standard

to fragmentation could become

509

itself a chain reaction that.

510

That never really needs to know

where and becomes an easy option for

511

people to take once they don't agree.

512

Instead of walking through

their disagreements, they

513

just say, oh, let's please.

514

But then there's always going to be some

other reason for that smaller group to

515

agree unless they can achieve question.

516

And so there's some balance

there that needs to be achieved.

517

And I don't see that we in most parts

of Africa, that we have that balance.

518

Naomi: Okay, so here's my contribution

here would be I don't think the number

519

of countries we have, the way they're

set up, everybody should just figure out

520

how to work with him, having that set up.

521

Because to your point, even in

rda because of the genocide was

522

the disagreement between two atmo.

523

Communities, right?

524

So you could keep splitting to the

nth degree and achieve nothing,

525

and just spend time splitting.

526

So my theory would be normal

fragmentation, let's leave it as is,

527

and let's focus on the things that we

need to work on and move from there.

528

Yeah.

529

Because these other things

are highly distracting.

530

There might be very little to gain

from pursuing that path and might

531

actually take us many years back.

532

Yeah,

533

Wale: I was saying even the

latest example of South Sudan,

534

how the spec clearly blew up.

535

And this is something that everybody,

I'm sure including them, had a, oh yeah.

536

This is such a good example

of, let's agree to pathways.

537

And, let the small homogeneous

units go do their thing.

538

I think all of that says to me

the economic argument for, having

539

smaller groups because they're

more cohesive, is undermined by the

540

reality that smaller groups don't

necessarily deliver that cohesion

541

and therefore they can never achieve

the economic upside of being small.

542

And this is the problem with that

side on the cons side of fragmentation

543

it was supposed to be a pro side of

fragmentation, but it turns out to

544

have this underlying con that yes, it's

a pro, if you can truly achieve the

545

correction and if you have the vision

546

again, like you said, you

can achieve that question.

547

I just think kumbaya forever, without

the vision of K, you're just a call.

548

If you really want to make something

out of it, you need those things to

549

line in your favor, but we're not there.

550

And what we do have is what we

have right now, as you said.

551

But what are the

advantages of being bigger?

552

And I think, if they're obvious, but it's

worth stating, is the way economics grow.

553

How the way economics are designed.

554

Yes, it's important to move in

one direction, to be able to be

555

nimble and fast and implement,

but you also need a market.

556

You also need access to resources.

557

These are, the labels of economic

production, land capital and I

558

dunno what the other one is, but

mostly people will say, yeah, labor.

559

Sorry, land, capital labor.

560

But there's usually fourth one that

people that talk about, which is

561

knowhow slash entrepreneurship, right?

562

And that knowhow is not dependent on size,

but certainly the other three are, right?

563

So that's why you can be a small

Singapore and with high levels of knowhow,

564

you can make whatever of your other

three things work or do more for you.

565

But we have those other three

things, and the more you have

566

them, the better for you.

567

The more you have land, the more you

have capital, the more you have labor.

568

And then also there's the geopolitical

aspect if you are much bigger

569

and you have a bigger population,

even if you're relatively poor,

570

you can throw your weight around.

571

China, even when it was really

poor, there were billion people.

572

No matter how poor you are.

573

Billion people is still a billion people.

574

You can still swindle much

richer neighbors sick because

575

there's just so many of you.

576

Same for India.

577

If you can then somehow solve the

cohesion factor, it just makes you that

578

much stronger than a smaller country

that can be as coheed as possible.

579

If Africa was a country like India or

China, we would, even if we're poor,

580

and this goes to, I think the point

you made we'll still be taking really

581

more seriously than 50 different people

582

That's one advantage that I think for

me is really compelling from an economic

583

point of view in favor of unification.

584

Naomi: That's the thing, right?

585

China and India, what they have

is political unification, right?

586

And when you look at current

geopolitics, they are considered as one.

587

And then you compare that against

the European Union which is

588

an economic cooperation, not a

political one to a large extent.

589

And in the current geopolitics where

countries are having to negotiate

590

with the current US administration,

you're seeing European countries,

591

like yesterday for example, we had

the president of Switzerland going

592

to the US to try and negotiate

down their tar individually, right?

593

So they're not negotiating as a

block, which is an interesting

594

difference between, China and

India and an important one and what

595

the Europeans have put together.

596

So if you're looking at it from

where we are, so if we're to make

597

the assumption that Africa will

likely not unify politically.

598

United States of Africa is

probably a pipe dream, right?

599

Then what are the other unification

angles that we can pursue as a continent,

600

that actually work to our advantage?

601

And you mentioned a really

important one, right?

602

There's still a billion plus people

on the continent and it's growing.

603

So that's still a large market for

staff of whatever type it might be

604

poor quality stuff, but it's staff.

605

And so what we should be maybe focused

on, which is I think what we've been

606

focused on now for quite a while is

economic cooperation in creating one

607

fridge trade area across the continent.

608

And that obviously has had many

challenges in the last 60 plus years.

609

So maybe, yeah, it would be good to hear

your perspective on how you see that part

610

of the economic cooperation going forward.

611

What could we be doing different?

612

To make it work a bit better, to

create this bigger market of stuff.

613

Wale: Yeah.

614

I think the European path is the next best

thing, as you pointed out, the economic

615

integration that we should do a better

job of just pushing in that direction.

616

So in terms of that reality check that

you're talking about it's, probably

617

even the economic integration, we've

not been able to manage it, even though

618

theoretically it should be easier.

619

As we've seen in Europe, nobody thinks

Europe can come together as one United

620

States of Europe, but they could see even

with these difficulties, this economic

621

integration of them having the European

Union, even though it has these issues.

622

But we've just not even been able

to move, even though we have a much

623

bigger reason than Europe, right?

624

To unify economically, because we

just don't have a Germany or France

625

or a UK that can stand, significantly

on own, on the world stage.

626

These three are permanent

members of the United Nation

627

Security Council, for example.

628

So they don't, it's a market thing for

them to unify, but they have no political

629

imperatives to unify because that will,

they won't just , their individual weight,

630

but for Africa, the truth, the Nigeria,

as big as it is, still isn't part of

631

any, it's, a major voice, globally.

632

But as part of Africa, it'll

automatically earn itself.

633

You cannot exclude it

from the biggest, stages.

634

and so there we have more

compelling reason for political

635

ation, but we haven't done it.

636

And the one that we, the second most

reason we haven't done it either.

637

So I, from a likelihood of happening

I don't know that it's more

638

likelihood over the next 50 years

that we'll get it done than what

639

we've managed over the last 50 years.

640

There's some movement in that direction

with the trade agreements, But let

641

me quickly go back to your earlier

premise that maybe we should just

642

take for granted that this political

level of fragmentation that we have

643

now is what we can't do anything about

644

I think not, I think we're ling do

something about it and what it, that

645

in fact it's probably easier to do

that, but not at the whole of Africa

646

as a whole, but actually regional form.

647

So another and one example of its

is this, Sahil states that is, the

648

roia, or what, I dunno what I call

them in West Africa right now.

649

I know that political integration is a cra

on what they, where they are right now.

650

But they think that if one of them was

dominant enough and clear-minded and

651

a bit of a leader, they could actually

convince the others to move into some

652

sort of political integration because

then there is historical for that, right?

653

One of the older versions of.

654

This political unification that they

tried out in the sixties and the

655

sixties was like Mali, Booka Faso

and I'm not sure which else, but

656

there was an attempt back in there

for there to be, some consolidation

657

of some version of those countries.

658

I need to look into the, so

all it takes is like the manian

659

hedge man to really say, you know

what, we wanna do this right?

660

And the others might say, yeah.

661

I think I've always wondered why

Nigeria didn't make more as a culture.

662

Unify Niger and Togo and Bei.

663

Naomi: cause nobody wants to

be consumed by big giants.

664

Wale: Let's talk to why is it there?

665

Why is it the, like it makes no sense.

666

some of these things require

political bravery and courage from

667

the big guys because the small

guys are never gonna push for it.

668

But if the gift by big guys

push for it, but does it with.

669

Empathy but relentlessly

and really offers carrots.

670

That might be a bit too much in the

beginning, like the example with Zanzibar.

671

And I think we need to push in those

directions where, you know, Kenya, I

672

dunno, okay, you guys don't have a small

neighborhood that you can take over,

673

Naomi: About what's taking it

as, of taking over other people.

674

And I think, at least from what

I've seen from our leaders are

675

independent is that it's very

much the big man syndrome, right?

676

Where everybody wants to be a big man,

everybody wants to bully everybody else.

677

And where as I was saying earlier, the

what the got trade right is that he

678

came at it to your point with a lot

of empathy, with a lot of humility.

679

Recognizing that death has benefit

for him as well as the other person.

680

And if human beings like that don't exist

in many places, especially the people

681

in political power, I really like that.

682

So I actually think my counter

to your thing on big countries

683

should substitute smaller countries

and convince them to join them.

684

That's less likely because the person

who's leading a bigger country will always

685

feel like they have more, more macro and

try to push around the smaller countries.

686

They actually think, to your point on,

unification in the Sahel, that countries

687

that are probably the same level have

similar dynamics going on, are more

688

likely to band together to gain strength.

689

That would be my theory that if I was

trying to create a political saturation.

690

Stake, I'd stake, your Botswana

and your Namibia, and those

691

ones would join together.

692

I doubt that South Africa could

convince Namibia and Botswana

693

to make one country do that.

694

Just highly unlikely to me.

695

If I was Namibia, I would

not agree to that agreement

696

because it just, it is weird.

697

But if I'm negotiating with, the tu

then we are talking a similar language.

698

We're small, if we get together,

then we can take over some markets

699

that are covered by somebody else.

700

Like we have, you're talking a

similar language and coming from

701

a place of similar strength.

702

Wale: I don't disagree with you, that

one looks like on the face of the

703

least in some particular framing,

but I do like the framing of two

704

different types of illustrations,

unifications among peers, so to speak.

705

And then the, big and small

706

The reason why I think the big slow

version of it is more likely, even though

707

it has more friction built in, is simply

because to the point, whatever, where

708

we both agree with is that the natural

tendency is to fragment, not to unify

709

because of politicians being who they are.

710

because by definition any identity

unification, whether it's between

711

peers or from the bigger to smaller is

that politicians will lose power and

712

there'll be some winner and losers.

713

So my argument is it is harder to overcome

that obstacle if you are all peers

714

because nobody's bigger than the other.

715

So there's no forcing mechanism.

716

if you wanted to have that outcome of

unification and you realize there's

717

a forcing mechanism, then logically.

718

You need a way to apply

that forcing mechanism.

719

And that's why I think

it's the big versus small.

720

And the only point is then to now,

like I said, how do you do that in

721

a way that is more potable, not be

entirely palatable to the small guys and

722

they're not going to just give it up.

723

But they were not great to give it

up to their peers either, because

724

why would they, like, why would the

Namibia and the Botswana come together?

725

They have no natural incentive to do

so because the obstacle is too high.

726

The people of Otto don't want

to be standard, Otto people.

727

It's only the politicians in Lato.

728

They don't want to give up their.

729

ability to be politicians and to

be their own local champion leaders

730

so that they can go to un on their

own accord and get all this fixed.

731

But the general people of Otto,

they would rather just, if you

732

give them a South African passport

tomorrow, they'll be okay with it.

733

They'll take it, they'll

bite your hands up.

734

So there needs to be that campaign

that public advocacy campaign on the

735

one hand and then now apply political

pressure with the leaders and just

736

make their lives a lot more difficult.

737

So you're never need to go

to war because they know this

738

, Naomi: Where would they do, like what

does South Africa gain from this equation?

739

Because when you think about other global

examples, when you think about West

740

Germany and East Germany, the economically

stronger party has to p in significant

741

resources to support the economically.

742

More challenged.

743

And so what does South

Africa gain from some cement?

744

Wale: West Germany gained, should

say, the economy stronger, a bigger

745

market, bigger access to resources.

746

Otto supplies most of the water that

out tank the whole of joiners for use.

747

Otto has great resources

that have now not been used.

748

South Africa's actually losing from

having in there right now because again,

749

those people are not South Africans,

but they still end up coming south

750

Africaine as immigrants that take up

work and cause all the social friction.

751

Then there's a harder example

in West Africa, like in

752

Nigeria, the upside is clear.

753

nigeria is a much more powerful country.

754

We have more land, more

people, bigger market.

755

There's things you can learn from there.

756

We're already the same people.

757

So the obstacle for Nigeria is

today, it's the smaller guys

758

that you have to convince.

759

Because what you then

build is good for Africa.

760

If we continue to be like, oh, we're the

status school of 55 states does not work.

761

This is where I'm starting from, right?

762

It does not work over the last 60 years.

763

It's not and it's not gonna work.

764

Naomi: saying all of that work that

you want us to do to unify will take

765

a really long time to do and we'll set

us back because how many things can

766

you focus on at the same time, right?

767

And so unless there's been a war or

some other very compelling reason that

768

is posing the speed of unification,

then the thing just drags on and on and

769

takes everybody's time and resources

and we have other things to do, right?

770

We have a burgeoning population

of people without jobs,

771

without economic opportunity.

772

But just many things to focus on and you

have have to pick and choose your battle.

773

So thank you Ali, for joining

me on my first guest episode.

774

It's super great To have you as Ali.

775

Talking to you is always such

a pleasure, so thank you.

776

And yeah, any last words before

we log off and look forward

777

with something to think about?

778

Wale: Yeah, no thank you.

779

I think this is for inviting

me on your first guests.

780

As I've been really keen to do this.

781

I am, political economist,

like my sharing topic.

782

and of course talking to you

is also always a pleasure.

783

So thank you for having me on and

thank you for this topic and invite

784

me back anytime you like, being

more than happy to do this again.

785

Naomi: All right, that's it folks.

786

Thanks for joining and

thanks for listening to us.

787

Please subscribe to the

LAN our History podcast.

788

Wherever you listen to podcast.

789

We would love to hear from you.

790

You can write to us at

lan our history@gmail.com.

791

Did you learn something?

792

Are there topics you'd like us to cover?

793

Any resources you think we'd

love to dive into, let us know.