The world has never been wealthier... but a warm patch of ocean in the Pacific is about to reorganize the weather across four continents and all that wealth still might not be enough to cover the damages. Climate scientist Justin Mankin studies how much these events actually cost - and his estimates run to $10 trillion or more in global economic loss over the next five years. Big numbers, short timeframe, scary outlook. But the hardest question that Dr. Mankin brought up with us wasn't about how we're gunna pay for all of this, it's about what gets lost when we measure disasters in GDP instead of lives.
Do we want richer world or a better one?
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro
(01:16) - Why El Niño Matters Now
(02:47) - El Niño and IOD Explained
(07:48) - Teleconnections and Predictability
(09:47) - El Niño Life Cycle and Timing
(11:53) - Defining Normal in Climate Data
(14:39) - How El Niño Is Measured
(22:19) - ONI vs RONI and Super El Niño Hype
(26:59) - Drought Monitoring and Shifting Baselines
(32:08) - How Gnarly Is El Niño
(34:31) - Warming World Impacts
(35:20) - Counting El Niño Costs
(38:16) - El Niño to La Niña
(39:12) - Springback Physics Explained
(42:32) - Trillions in Damages
(44:00) - Causal Inference Methods
(50:09) - Conflict and Thresholds
(01:00:03) - Five Year Outlook
(01:05:42) - Closing and Credits
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Referenced in the Show:
Justin's Research - https://jsmankin.github.io/
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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