THE PROTEIN PULSE PODCAST

Wednesday Watchlist | September 23, 2026

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Wednesday Watchlist for September 23, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: You know the protein business is getting interesting when a truckload of frozen chicken becomes currency. According to reports out of Memphis, a driver allegedly offered one hundred ten thousand dollars’ worth of Koch Foods chicken to settle a drug debt. Twelve arrests later, the load was recovered. Somewhere, a freight broker is having a very bad week. We’ve got diesel prices pushing toward record territory, August cattle placements at their lowest August level on record, and hog inventories potentially tightening into twenty twenty-seven. Apparently, we can add poultry to the list of accepted currencies. I’ve spent plenty of time negotiating pennies per pound, watching diesel prices, and trying to squeeze another nickel out of freight. Never occurred to me that someone might be negotiating a chicken-for-cocaine exchange rate. Know your market. Know your external risks. And make sure your meat isn’t paying somebody else’s bills.

HOST: August cattle placements fell nine point two percent to their lowest August level on record as Santa Teresa prepares to reopen Thursday. Sterling shows beef packers profitable while feedlots lose three hundred twenty-four a head. Pork producers remain profitable while packers operate near breakeven. Imported lean offers a substantial discount to domestic supply, although Asian demand raises questions about forward availability. Bird flu threatens turkey production. Thursday’s hog inventory report approaches. Elevated diesel complicates delivered protein economics.

SHAWN: USDA placements totaled one point six one seven million head, down nine point two percent from last year, versus a pre-report expectation of a two point seven percent decline. Lowest August placement total on record — not the lowest total for any month. September first inventories eleven point one six three million, just seven-tenths above twenty twenty-five. The year-over-year inventory surplus has narrowed from about two hundred thirty-nine thousand head on June first to eighty-three thousand. Year-to-date cattle slaughter nineteen point seven three two million through September twenty-second, down seven point five percent — about one point six million fewer cattle than the comparable twenty twenty-five period.

HOST: Fewer cattle do not translate into an equivalent reduction in beef pounds. Hales reports fed carcass weights nine hundred fifty-four pounds, up twenty-four from last year. Beef-type cattle grading Choice or higher reached eighty-eight percent, five points above twenty twenty-five. Heavier carcasses are partially offsetting reduced slaughter. Higher grading changes the composition of available beef. Cattle numbers, total beef pounds, and the availability of specific grades and manufacturing inputs are three different considerations.

SHAWN: Santa Teresa is scheduled to reopen September twenty-fourth. Historically that crossing handled about forty-three percent of the one point two five million cattle imported annually from Mexico — roughly five hundred thirty-seven thousand five hundred head on an annualized basis. The reopening remains scheduled despite confirmation of New World screwworm in a horse in Grant County, New Mexico. Actual crossing volumes, inspection requirements, Mexican feeder availability, and finish time will determine the commercial impact. Reopening the crossing could improve feeder availability. It will not immediately restore finished-cattle supplies.

HOST: Sterling estimates unhedged feedlot losses deepened to three twenty-three sixty-eight a head in the week ending September nineteenth, versus three oh seven nineteen the prior week. Packer margins remained positive at one thirty-eight eighty, down from one seventy-seven sixteen. Cow-calf twenty twenty-six annual projection plus one thousand four a cow. Cattle marketed last week carried an estimated breakeven of two forty-five, versus two thirty-five oh nine for new placements. Sterling still projects an annual beef packing loss of one fifty-three seventy-five a head for twenty twenty-six.

SHAWN: Imported lean remains a meaningful alternative. Platts tradable C I F Philadelphia indications for October–November Australian and New Zealand shipments: ninety-five C L three forty-nine. Nineties three nineteen. Eighty-fives three oh four. Against the last established domestic fresh nineties of four nineteen eighty-three, imported nineties at three nineteen C I F is a gross differential of about a dollar one. That is not a directly executable dollar-one saving. Product condition, shipment timing, duties, inland freight, handling, and financing have to go into delivered blend economics.

HOST: Forward availability deserves attention. Platts reports New Zealand is approaching its seasonal production low, with Chinese buyers absorbing available October production. Cattlenomics reported Australian beef imports into the United States declined forty-five point seven percent week over week to six thousand four hundred thirty-one metric tons in the week ending September eleventh. Brazilian imports increased eight percent to seven thousand seven hundred sixty-one. One week’s arrivals do not establish a lasting shift. Platts assessed imported nineties at three oh eight F C A East Coast. Those F C A and C I F assessments carry different terms and should not be compared without adjustment. The question is whether today’s discount is an opportunity to establish forward imported lean coverage before Asian demand changes available supplies and pricing.

SHAWN: HPAI is returning as the U.S. turkey industry tries to recover. Len Steiner’s Daily Livestock Report: more than six hundred thousand turkeys in commercial farms and breeder operations affected over the past five weeks, versus about fifty-five thousand in the corresponding period last year. Turkey breast reached about seven twenty a pound in December twenty twenty-five before retreating toward three ten as production recovered. USDA expects turkey production of about five point one billion pounds in twenty twenty-six, versus four point eight last year. That recovery remains vulnerable. Hormel’s Foodservice business is about one-third of company sales and roughly half its profits. Third-quarter Foodservice sales about one billion, up two percent. Segment profit one hundred forty-four point five million, up three. The Flash one eighty chicken platform is further processing — package to plate in about three minutes. The opportunity isn’t simply selling a pound of chicken. It’s helping customers reduce labor, simplify preparation, and improve kitchen throughput.

HOST: USDA September twenty-second broiler glance: whole birds steady, firm pricing tendencies, light availability. Bone-in breasts, front halves, tenders, and wings about steady. Dark meat activity slow. Legs and thighs well cleared. Year-to-date chicken slaughter six point nine nine nine billion birds, up one point two percent.

SHAWN: Quarterly Hogs and Pigs is Thursday. Reuters survey: September breeding herd down about seven-tenths to five point eight nine four million, potentially the lowest September inventory since twenty fifteen. June–August pig crop expected down one percent. Farrowings down one point seven. Pigs per litter up nine-tenths. Those expectations concern future hog availability. Current pork pricing and margins are telling a different story. Sterling farrow-to-finish fell nearly ten dollars to twenty-eight forty-seven. Packers slipped slightly below breakeven at a loss of thirteen cents a head. Western Corn Belt lean carcass eighty-three twenty-two. Pork cutout eighty-seven sixty-three in that weekly tracker. Daily cutout eighty-seven ninety-nine, down ninety-two hundredths. Bellies down five forty-seven cents. Loins down four forty-nine. Hams up three sixty-four. Forty-twos eighty-five seventy-one. Seventy-twos ninety-eight twenty-eight. Circana: August processed meat pounds down five point six percent. Frankfurters down ten point five. Thursday’s report will clarify inventory and pig-crop expectations heading into twenty twenty-seven.

HOST: Crude declined Tuesday. Diesel moved the other way. October W T I ninety-four fifty-nine, down a dollar nineteen. November Brent ninety-nine twenty-five. October U L S D four ninety-four twenty-one a gallon, up three eighty-eight cents. Declining crude futures will not produce immediate reductions in freight rates or fuel surcharges. U L S D is a wholesale futures benchmark, not the pump price. December corn five thirty-six and three-quarters, down six and a quarter cents, despite harvest disruptions. Farm Journal reported more than seven inches in some areas and record September-to-date totals in several districts. Wet conditions can delay deliveries, increase drying costs, and affect local cash basis even as futures decline. Q T Information Systems reported regional cash soybean bids exceeding fourteen dollars as buyers sought remaining old-crop supplies. Sterling’s Pork Profit Tracker estimated feed costs of ninety twenty-six a head for new finishing placements, versus eighty-one seventy-seven for hogs marketed during the reporting week.

SHAWN: The first lean-beef tranche opened September first and closes September thirtieth. Subsequent tranches October first and October thirty-first. S and P Global Energy CERA reported about twenty-two thousand metric tons had cleared under the September tranche as of September twenty-first. Quota clearances, contracted shipments, and physical arrivals are different measures. The September thirtieth deadline makes customs-entry timing commercially relevant.

HOST: Radar. Confirmed Australia-New Zealand trades, forward availability, and delivered blend economics. Actual Santa Teresa crossing volumes after Thursday’s scheduled reopening. Thursday’s breeding herd, pig crop, and farrowing intentions. Additional HPAI cases and wholesale turkey breast. Harvest progress, regional cash basis, and meal. Diesel and carrier fuel-surcharge exposure.

SHAWN: Snapshot. Choice three seventy-nine. Select three fifty-eight. Fresh nineties four twenty, last established September twenty-first. Fifties eighty-six cents. Pork cutout eighty-eight cents. October live cattle two eighteen seventy-eight, down two eighteen. October crude ninety-four fifty-nine. Daily slaughter: cattle one hundred five thousand, down seven point five year-to-date. Hogs four hundred ninety-one thousand, down one percent. Chicken thirty-five point seven million, up one point two.

HOST: Bottom line.

SHAWN: A lower cattle placement number doesn’t necessarily mean fewer beef pounds today. A lower crude price doesn’t guarantee cheaper freight tomorrow. And a dollar-per-pound discount on imported lean doesn’t automatically translate into a dollar of procurement savings. Different markets operate on different timelines, and the difference between a quoted price and an executable delivered cost matters. The opportunity isn’t simply finding the lowest price. It’s understanding when the market is offering value — and whether that value survives the trip to your customer’s dock. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Wednesday Watchlist for September 23, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.