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Costs, Carriers, and China: Parcel Shipping in 2025 With Nate Skiver From LPF Spend Management
Episode 5413th February 2025 • Unboxing Logistics • EasyPost
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Welcome back to Unboxing Logistics.

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I'm your host, Lori Boyer of EasyPost, and you are in for a treat today.

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We are going to be talking on today's show with the great Nate Skiver, all about costs, carriers,

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the Chinese, I got like triple C's going on here for us to be talking about all of the latest

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trends coming into 2025 around these topics.

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And I brought in one of the, the great educators, really a great person in the space here of

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logistics and supply chain, Nate Skiver.

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Can you introduce yourself a little bit to our audience who might not know you?

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Absolutely.

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I appreciate the amazing introduction, Lori but my name is Nate Skiver.

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I'm founder of LPF Spend Management, which essentially means I'm an independent consultant.

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I am a 20 plus year parcel nerd that about five years ago, decided to move

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into consulting after 17 years in retail.

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So I help you package shippers ship smarter and reduce cost.

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I also help package carriers, not UPS and FedEx.

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They don't need my help.

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Compete in the marketplace.

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So I've been doing that for the past five years.

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And I've really valued the opportunity to work with so many different companies and, and help

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them optimize their, their parcel programs.

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That's fantastic.

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Unboxing Logistics community, you're basically getting like free consulting care today.

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So, from the great Nate.

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So get ready buckle up.

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It's gonna be really fun.

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Before we get started, one of the things we've been doing that I have just absolutely

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loved this season is I've been asking my guests to share a person in the industry

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that they really admire or even a role in the industry that they really admire.

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This industry is so full of connections, and the importance of relationships is huge.

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And I've really been interested to hear about who people admire and who have been great mentors.

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So Nate, do you have somebody you can share with us?

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I do.

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And it's, I'll say mine isn't directly parcel necessarily, but you know, a lot of people

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will, will, will know this one, Rick Watson.

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Rick is a really dynamic, presence in the ecommerce industry you know, a veteran of

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that industry on, with several companies.

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And he's been consulting on his own for a little bit longer than I have.

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And so early on in my consulting career, I started to follow Rick.

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You know, I've chatted with Rick and so really admire the work that he does, the

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candor that he has, he brings to all of his content or also does, has his own podcast.

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So really value the work that Rick does.

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Absolutely.

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That's amazing.

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And I just want to say I've really enjoyed as I've heard people share about mentors and

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examples that they've had in the industry.

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You know it's just really reminded me for all of you out there listening there are

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so many opportunities, if there's a job role you're interested in, if there's you

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know If you're wanting to pivot in your career a little bit kind of like Nate did

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in becoming a consultant, look for those people that you admire and reach out to them.

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So often, if all you want to do is say, I'd love to have a conversation with

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you about how you're making this work, or, you know, do you have tips for me?

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So many people in this industry are just fantastic about that.

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So I love that.

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Thank you.

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Shout out to Rick.

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That's awesome.

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Okay.

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Another cool thing we've been doing.

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You know, Nate, you know, I know, you can't go like even five steps in this industry

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without hearing about AI, hearing about tech.

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It's a big thing everyone's talking about everywhere.

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But when it comes to some things like ChatGPT it's often, you know, as we've used it more

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and more, it's easy to see sometimes, you know, it's so good at kind of starting a foundation.

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It maybe gives you some good points, but sometimes it's a little bit missing.

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And sometimes it's right on.

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So, the best way to kind of fact check it is with our experts here.

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Make sure, you know, see what their take is on what it says.

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So, I have asked ChatGPT, what trends will we see between the big name carriers

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and the smaller kind of regional or more alternative carriers in the next five years?

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What it anticipates seeing kind of the trends here.

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So I'm going to read these to you, Nate, and we'll get kind of your feedback, see if you think

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it's missing anything, see if you think it's on.

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So first, its number one thing it said was it believes we'll see collaboration

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between them over competition.

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Okay, so you can think about that.

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Number two, we will see increased diversification by shippers.

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So increasing diversification.

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And three, adoption of tech and data sharing between the big carriers and the smaller carriers.

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Okay, so gut check reaction first.

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Collaboration over competition.

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Increased diversification.

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That one seems like kind of pretty fairly is already happening.

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But also adoption of sharing of technology and data.

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Wow.

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So the collaboration, if we're talking, if I understood this correctly,

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collaboration with each other?

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Yes.

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It says major carriers will increasingly lean on regional players to meet

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their customers' expectations.

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If that's within the five year horizon, I think that is on the back end of that.

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That's what I thought.

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Because right now, it doesn't appear that way very much at all.

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There's really intense competition right now.

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Even if you, I mean, if you throw the USPS in there, they're a very large,

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you know, player in the industry.

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They are taking the approach of hey, we've we've got this.

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We're gonna do it on our own.

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So which is a massive change from what they've done.

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So, so I don't, I don't know about that one.

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I think if it happens it's, it is at the end of that five years.

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What about consolidation?

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Do you see consolidation at all?

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Like, you know, the purchasing of some of these smaller regional carriers by the big ones?

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On a really small scale, possibly.

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I think that's what I would expect.

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Like, not necessarily a, just to make this up, you know, I'm not saying this would ever happen,

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FedEx acquiring OnTrac or something like that.

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I don't think that is what we see and we maybe can talk about a more, more organic

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consolidation of, you know, some providers not being in the market anymore, that I

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think is much more likely in the short term.

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Yeah, I could see that.

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Okay, diversification by shippers.

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That one I would agree with.

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It's, it's been a building trend and it's not a one size fits all.

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Not every shipper has to diversify or anything like that.

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But I think all of the things that go into that, you know, available options from just

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a delivery provider standpoint, technology.

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And then, you know, inventory getting closer to the customer enables a lot of

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those things also, so I think that will continue, so I would agree with that one.

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Okay, and then the last one, this is one that I was really hesitant on, that we would see

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more adoption of technology and data sharing between the large carriers and the small ones.

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Again, I think I'm with you, like it feels very competitive right now, and everybody's

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protecting stuff, so it's hard to see, but.

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Yeah, I'm not, I'm trying to think of a, a use case, not in a literal partnership

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as far as delivery services goes.

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I'm trying to think of how that might work.

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I can't think of anything right now, so I'm not sure exactly where that one's directed.

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But,

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chatGPT must think that it has great hopes that we're very collaborative and helpful in

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working together, more than I think we are.

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Agreed.

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I mean, maybe that might be in, in those providers, regardless of who they are,

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their best interest, but I don't think it's, it's happening anytime soon.

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Yeah, I agree.

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Okay, so what would be your overall grade, A to F?

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What would you give it?

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I don't know, maybe a C plus.

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Yeah, I was thinking in the C range as well.

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Anything that you would say that it missed?

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That you would see as a trend coming down in the relationship there.

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Of UPS and FedEx diversifying their businesses, where package delivery might still be the

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majority of revenue, but not what it is today.

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So other types of services to where they aren't dependent upon delivery as

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much as they are, because that, I think, over time becomes more commoditized.

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Okay.

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Okay.

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Do you think that they'll focus more on some of those, like, kind of niche markets?

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Or how will they handle those?

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Somewhat or or adjacent, whether it's kind of market segments or capabilities that maybe

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they already offer, but expanding those.

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I mean you know, UPS is focused on, on health care.

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So I just think kind of areas that are adjacent, maybe even current service offerings that they

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build out to to diversify their revenue a bit.

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Okay, perfect.

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Love it.

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Okay, so what do you see kind of as the trends as we're going into 2025?

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What are sort of the most significant things that you anticipate for shippers?

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And for the carriers as well.

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As we move into kind of an uncertain year, we've got, you know, political

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changes, and we've got global conflict and all kinds of potential disruptions.

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But what are, what are your predictions?

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What are your thoughts?

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Yeah, I mean, I think a fair amount of some of the things that have happened in 24 will either

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continue or maybe evolve to an extent in 25.

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I mean, one of the things is, even though the market, I guess just package volume, if

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you want to kind of size the market, isn't really growing or changing too significantly,

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there's a lot of change happening in the market with different providers either entering the

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market, trying to expand, gain a foothold.

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FedEx continues, and UPS, continues to make pricing more complex.

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So that's, you know, just something that the pace of change on that front also

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is very, very difficult to keep up with.

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And so I think that along with the complexity of, that comes with all of the choices in the market.

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So it's a good thing, but it's also a bad thing.

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I think that continues to be something that shippers have to really stay on top of.

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And stay on top of the market you know, understand where it's headed from a pricing

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standpoint and do their best to prepare for it.

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I think uncertain, I think you mentioned that word, there is uncertainty around

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this group of alternative carriers.

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Some of them may not exist.

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Some of them may persist and hopefully survive and thrive.

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But it's really something, again, that a shipper has to investigate, explore, to

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really understand and take advantage of.

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Last two things, if that wasn't enough, I think for two other players in the market that

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one has had an impact for a while, the USPS.

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They've been changing their network for quite a long time.

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So that's still in process.

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And they are being much more intentional with their strategy around their package services to,

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you know, I guess they've also really kind of taken hold of that volume of business perhaps

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at the expense of some of their partners.

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And so that has created some uncertainty with pricing, particularly lightweight packages.

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That's not, we're not done with that.

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That's in process right now.

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And so I think particularly first half of the year is where you know

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that might show up more in the market.

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Last thing, Amazon.

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So Amazon Shipping been kind of hanging out there for a while not really at

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least publicly making much of an impact.

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From what I'm seeing and hearing they're being more intentional as far as go to

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market and in trying to win some volume.

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So we'll see if that actually surfaces.

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Interesting, so one thing you mentioned were costs.

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And well, I I recently had on an episode.

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Dr Chris Caplice of MIT, and he shared that he believes that we're going to in the next

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year or so switch over to being kind of it's been sort of a shippers market in terms

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of, you know, carriers vying for business.

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And he thinks we're going to see a little bit of a shift back to carriers

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kind of having the upper role.

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Do you agree with that?

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Disagree with that?

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And if you do agree or either way, you know, how do you feel like shippers should respond?

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I don't know that there's going to be a dramatic shift, say, 180 degrees, I guess that's right.

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But a strong shippers market, or excuse me, carriers market, rather.

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Yeah.

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I mean, a few things have to happen.

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I think both, you know, volume growth in the market, it's really not there.

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And one of the few sources and you kind of mentioned, alluded to this a little bit in

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the opening is volume from Chinese retailers.

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There's not much growth outside of that.

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And the only way that the market really kind of swings back the other way

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significantly is if capacity is taken out of the market, like significant amount.

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And I know that that Is part of the strategy from UPS and to an extent FedEx as well.

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They're kind of right sizing their networks.

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But I just don't see it happening that quickly to where now those carriers and presumably

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others are in a really strong position to start commanding much higher prices.

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Yeah, so probably not, you're anticipating probably not 2025, maybe at some point, but

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we're still probably sticking in shippers market.

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In doing so, what do you recommend to get, you know, to really take advantage of that?

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So if we're still in a shippers market, do you recommend locking

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in good rates for a lengthy time?

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Do you recommend the opposite, you know, trying to get your rates being shifting all the time.

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How do you recommend they best take advantage cost wise?

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I mean, one thing, it's somewhat dependent upon how I mean, say in the last 12 to

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18 months, what the approach has been for, you know, particular shipper.

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If they've been closely managing it and responding when things change either in the

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market or within their own business, you know, volume changes, things like that, then really

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it's, it's continuing to stay on top of you know, where, you know, if the volume or if

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the market is growing then they may start to actually need to look at it differently

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and potentially expect some rate increases.

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But if, if they haven't been negotiating, say frequently, or haven't bid their business

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in, you know, 18 months or longer, that is going to be my, my first recommendation,

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and that would be early in the year.

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And, and that's just to make sure that you have the best pricing that you can obtain

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with the right providers that meet your needs.

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And while I don't expect, I guess, the, the shippers market just to

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fade away really, really quickly.

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It's not going to be here forever.

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Right.

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It's always cyclical.

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Exactly.

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So being able to get, you know, the, the best pricing that your volume commands really does

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need to happen, you know, early in the year.

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And then you can adjust thereafter.

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How early, Nate?

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We're talking January, February, just Q1 is good enough?

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I would, I would start as, as soon as you can.

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Okay.

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Start now, people.

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Start now.

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I mean, ideally, you know, you would have taken some time maybe in December to plan for January.

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And then, you know, get it kicked off.

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But that just happens to be one of the, the, you know projects, from prior experience and

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now consulting, that happens to get kind of pushed down the list if it doesn't get a start.

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Peak season all of that, this is crazy.

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So let's say they haven't the you know, they forgot, they were busy.

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They were killing it in December.

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They had so many, that's what we're gonna think, they were doing so good

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that they sort of forgot to plan.

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So do you recommend plan first and then you know, don't rush into it.

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How I guess what would be your strategy if they came to you and said Nate, help me, consult me.

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Should I spend a few weeks planning, you know, out what I want to do and then go bid?

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Short answer to some of the last part is yes.

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So, take, I mean, whatever time frame it takes you to really just assess the current state

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of your agreements, your rates, contracts.

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But then also just, if you know already, set some very clear objectives with with your

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program, be it both on cost and and service.

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And since we're talking more about cost here is, is setting those objectives and then

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deciding how to build out the plan to source the right carriers to meet those objectives.

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So, so take at least whatever time you need, hopefully just maybe a few weeks at the most.

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And if, if not, of course, there are other partners who can help, be it consultants, if

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you have a parcel spend management solution or partner in place, that can help expedite the

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process because you have the data available.

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So, but don't skip that step.

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Just make sure you're very intentional with it and don't let it, you know, linger too

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long before you get into the actual say RFP.

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Perfect.

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So a couple of things in there kind of came to mind for me.

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So diversification, you mentioned at the, you know, beginning of the show that diversification

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of carriers might not be right for everyone.

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So I want you to kind of share when maybe you think it is right, or maybe on the flip

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side when is diversification maybe not best?

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And kind of walk us through maybe then rate shopping technology, those kind of things

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in terms of cost, what your recommendations are for shippers out there on that.

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Diversification.

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I mean it it's something that I think, you know, I just mentioned related to an RFP

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specifically of setting objectives, but really just broadly with your overall parcel program

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is, is if you don't already have them set, you know, what cost targets you have or need to be.

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And also the service and transit time, delivery reliability, delivery speed.

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Those should all be established.

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And then look at it and and see where the gaps are.

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If you're not meeting those objectives and can at least determine, you know.

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If you aren't meeting the objectives, then the current providers have to

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be contributing to that in some way.

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And so, that's where you can look for opportunities to find the right partner

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or partners to help close those gaps.

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But it should be specific.

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It shouldn't just be.

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You know, diversifying isn't, I've been working with FedEx for 10 years and

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every once in a while, there's something that kind of pops up they can't handle.

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So I'm just going to throw a regional carrier in there and give them 1 percent

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of my volume, you know, done deal.

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Like, it's being more specific with what those objectives are.

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And if you go through that exercise and determine FedEx is meeting all my

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needs, then you don't need to diversify.

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But if you never go through the assessment process, then you don't reach that answer.

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You just assume it's good enough.

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Can you give an example maybe of when it would make sense to diversify?

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I don't know if it's a company or just even just generic.

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One example might be if something changes with your volume profile.

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So a lot of the packages that you usually ship are not heavy, but heavier,

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two, three, four, five, 10 pounds.

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And there's a new product line that, you know, you release and all of a sudden you've

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got a lot of volume that's under a pound.

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And so it's less than one pound.

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You're shipping packages that are in poly mailers that are 8 ounces that you haven't shipped before.

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And your partner is FedEx.

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Just, FedEx doesn't offer a service they used to, but they don't offer a service that

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has ounce based pricing that's competitive.

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And so that's where it's something that you really are very well incentivized to go

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source another carrier specifically just for that need, and that's on a cost basis.

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Whether it's USPS UPS mail Innovations, DHL eCommerce.

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There are options, and that would be a pretty clear cut example, I think of almost.

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It's not forced, but somewhat forced diversification.

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Yeah, and I love that that point that kind of a change occurred.

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I love how you said that, because so often, you know, maybe you're expanding internationally,

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maybe you're, you know, there are all kinds of little trigger points to watch for.

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You're opening up new DCs.

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You've got whatever it is may mean that shifts are required, or at

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least probably should be looked at.

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So let's talk a little bit about the Chinese then.

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So, we have been seeing, you know, massive influx from Temu and SHEIN and, you know, all

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of these kind of low cost goods flowing in.

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There's been a little talk about, you know, you've talked about a little

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bit, expanding kind of the fulfillment capabilities here in the U.S. logistics.

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What, I guess, what are you seeing here?

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What do you feel like their entrance is meaning for everyone else in the

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industry here in the United States?

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A lot has to do with whether, from a domestic standpoint, what impacts there

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will be, likely, from tariffs and/or just trade regulation changes on the import side.

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And I don't think either or both of those are going to just completely, you know,

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kill the inbound volume from from China.

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But it might expedite or push more of that volume into domestic fulfillment for these companies.

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And I believe, could be wrong, but I believe SHEIN is ahead there.

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They've had fulfillment in the, in the U.S. For at least a year, probably two.

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And this all comes down to the volume.

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The volume isn't going away, whether it's shipped domestically in the

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U.S. or inbound from China or both.

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And I think that's going to continue to grow.

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And to an extent, I mean, it's, it's really kind of cropping up the

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U.S. Parcel market at this point.

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And it's, it's having impacts kind of across different groups, but just from a carrier side,

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alternative carriers, regionals, final mile carriers have really benefited from this volume.

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There are some actually built their service offering almost entirely around it.

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There are others who, you know, have taken on a large portion of the volume

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and presumably have leveraged that to, you know, provide some cost unit cost

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benefits because of the delivery density.

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So even though it's low revenue, because these companies, Temu and others, command very,

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very low rates, it can enable, you know, the delivery density a carrier gets allows them

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then to maybe offer competitive pricing to other retailers, you know, still with margin.

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And they can take advantage of those kind of economies of scale.

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Then we've seen, you know, publicly at least because it comes up on

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earnings calls for FedEx and UPS.

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FedEx has at least stated they don't have, I don't know what the verbiage

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was they used, a significant say commitment or investment in that volume.

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Okay.

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UPS however I think I would still say that they do, they did have more and it kind of blew up in

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their face after Q2 earnings, because it was one of the reasons why the earnings weren't as strong.

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I think they've since made some, some changes.

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And so they've pulled back from that or kind of rationalized that a little bit and

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aren't as deep into that volume at such a low price as they were, say, six months ago.

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So Nate, for our carrier audience who's watching what, what are your recommendations

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for you know, working with Temu, SHEIN, these other, you know, really low rate organizations?

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Is it a risk?

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Is it, I know that, you know, de minimis is a big debate right now

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going on in Congress and import fees.

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Trying to kind of slow some of that down coming from China.

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I guess, yeah.

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So what is your recommendation to carriers?

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Work with them?

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Is it too risky?

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There's a lot of volume, but just what would you say?

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It's very situational.

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Just, I'll just kind of practice saying that so I can't make a blanket recommendation.

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You're giving us the political answer, I love it.

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We gotta do it.

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But because they, I'll just say, you know, carriers know their own cost

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structures better than, better than I do.

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And so this is pretty obvious, but of not being, you know, too dependent on

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that volume for a significant amount of percentage, I guess, of the company revenue.

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That, I mean, that's what I would say, because it's actually, while there's risk on the

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regulatory side, there's actually just as much risk or probably even more of just, from what

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I've been told of how some of these companies manage their volume with these providers and

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will flip volume from one carrier to another to save a pretty small amount, but to save on cost.

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Yes.

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When your costs are so low, I mean, every penny is making a huge difference.

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Yes.

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And so that's the thing where it, it's difficult to rely on that volume and revenue

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indefinitely, because it may change very quickly.

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So, I would say, you know, test and learn.

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So, kind of, you know, take on a certain part of it that wouldn't cause you know,

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issues if you lost it two months from now.

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And see if, if it's worth, you know, building out in areas that actually,

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you know, benefit your network.

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Fantastic.

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Okay, Nate, we are already, I don't even know how, we're already at time.

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You have so much that you have, I just feel like I could stay here all day and learn from you.

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But any other final advice?

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We've talked costs and carriers, you know, diversification.

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Any final recommendation for shippers specifically, first, going into 2025 final

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thoughts that you recommend that they make sure they lock down great advice on, you know, getting

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your RFP going early on, making sure you're looking for those trigger points of change.

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If anything happens, you know, to know if you need to diversify.

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Any other final thoughts that you have?

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It's kind of a theme with some of the things we've talked about, but prioritize parcel.

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I'm, I'm a bit you know, biased here, but

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parcel kind of gets the short end of the stick within supply chain.

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And even though it's a, it ends up being, particularly for retailers, a very, very large,

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you know, expense budget line item, it, it just doesn't get the priority, perhaps, and it should.

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And so I would just encourage shippers to prioritize parcel.

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Invest in people and partners.

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And so from a partner standpoint, whether that is on delivery partners shipping technology

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and multi-carrier shipping technology or parcel spend management, those partners that should

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be a very clear and intentional investment.

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And then people.

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There, there's not a lot of people who really have a lot of parcel expertise or experience,

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but it should be something that many shippers, I think intentionally can invest in their people.

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To actually devote, be it a person, start with one to, to parcel.

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I think I think the payback would be pretty quick.

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Okay.

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I love that you said that in multiple reasons.

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There's multiple things there that you said that just related to me.

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First, parcel.

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I feel like you know, parcel has boomed recently in terms of ecommerce exploding,

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but it has not gotten the attention, and it has, we have not yet seen that investment

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from our shippers in in recognizing that.

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So I think you are spot on on that.

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You and I are so in agreement on that.

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And I love how you said, around people, start with one.

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I think so often people think it's like, okay, I'm gonna dive in and do this giant thing.

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Just start small and grow from there.

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So that, I mean that's brilliant.

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Love that Nate.

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Thank you so much for being here today.

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So appreciate it.

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I know our audience is going to want to connect with you, reach out to you.

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What is the best way to connect with you?

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And obviously a great person if you want help is Nate Skiver.

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So where can people reach out and connect with you?

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Well, one way, you mentioned it early on, I think, is, is LinkedIn.

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So follow me on LinkedIn, DM me on LinkedIn that's, you know, I'm very, very active there.

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Post content every day.

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Also.

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He'll get you thinking there.

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He'll get you thinking.

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That's my, that's part of the reason I do it.

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Yeah.

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To really create some engagement.

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But then also, email nate@lpfspendmanagement.com.

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And there's more information about my consulting services at lpfspendmanagement.com.

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Fantastic.

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Well, for all of you in the audience, wish you the best 2025.

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It's going to be an awesome year.

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Crazy.

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This industry is always crazy though.

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So expect the unexpected.

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Nate, thank you so much.

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Thank you, Lori.

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And we'll see you next time.

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