Shownotes
Well the only remaining bullish structure has broken. Bitcoin is down just over 50% from its all time high. Where do we go from here? Will we spend the next two years in a bear market? How can you, as an investor, prosper from this time? Join us and find out!
News
IMF manipulates Argentine financial sector
https://bitcoinist.com/argentina-to-shut-down-crypto-activities-to-attain-45-billion-loan-says-imf
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I can be reached by email at mcintosh@genwealthcrypto.com and on twitter at @McIntoshFinTech. My mastodon handle is @mcintosh@podcastindex.social. Looking forward to hearing from you!
Website
Music Credits
Protofunk by Kevin MacLeod
Link: https://incompetech.filmmusic.io/song/4247-protofunk
License: https://filmmusic.io/standard-license
The following music was used for this media project:
Music: Ethernight Club by Kevin MacLeod
Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/7612-ethernight-club
License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license
Artist website: https://incompetech.com
Transcripts
Hi Everyone.
Speaker:Hey, everyone. No one on this podcast is a financial advisor and all information presented
Speaker:on this podcast is for informational purposes only. Now that we have the legal stuff out of
Speaker:the way, let's jump on in. Welcome to the generational wealth cryptocurrency podcast.
Speaker:I am your host McIntosh and today the bear is roaring. So let's talk about it.
Speaker:So as I'm recording this podcast, Bitcoin is at 33,500 roughly. It's been down, I believe to
Speaker:33,300. So it is approaching again, the lows of the day. That was just a few hours ago.
Speaker:We've dropped significantly over the last few days.
Speaker:We've already broken out of the wedge pattern that we had. We have established lower lows, which
Speaker:in my opinion means that we are headed for a downturn, a more significant downturn than
Speaker:we already have. So what do we do? We've discussed this a bit off and on over the last number of
Speaker:months. We were at an all-time high in roughly mid-November, 69,000, and ever since we've been
Speaker:working our way down. So 69,33. Well, we're down approximately $36,000. So we are down
Speaker:roughly 50%, a little more than that actually, but roughly 50%. So the question is from here,
Speaker:of course, is where we go and are we in a bear market? Are we in some sort of bear market?
Speaker:I think one of the things that's become fairly clear over the last few weeks,
Speaker:maybe even the last few months that we didn't want to believe really, is that we are still in
Speaker:a four-year market cycle. So we've discussed this on previous occasions. Bitcoin, every four years,
Speaker:the halving occurs, the number of Bitcoin that's being created when a block is mined is cut in half.
Speaker:So we're at 6.5 or 2.5. It's either 6.5 or 6.25 per block right now, the next halving,
Speaker:which will occur, if I'm not mistaken, in 2024, will go down to 3 point whatever.
Speaker:So it gets cut in half. So there's less Bitcoin being created.
Speaker:And so that does ultimately affect the price. It does not look like we have lengthening cycles
Speaker:that we have discussed on occasions. I do not think that during this four-year cycle,
Speaker:we will be heading back to above 69,000. It is what it is. Whether you're a trader or whether
Speaker:you're somebody who's simply an investor, it does not matter. You cannot fight reality.
Speaker:And one of the interesting things that I've been watching on Twitter over the last few weeks is
Speaker:you've got the bulls on one side say, the people who are bullish saying, oh, we're just going to
Speaker:bounce here and go up. And there's not really a big chance of us going below 35,000, 36,000,
Speaker:37,000, whatever it was. And we'll never go below 30,000. And we don't know at this point
Speaker:if we'll go below 30,000. Maybe we will, maybe we won't. But I do know that we have now established
Speaker:new lows for this year. That is plain and simple. And we've invalidated the bull patterns that we
Speaker:had, if that makes sense. So now we see where we go. Now, if you're an investor, what should you
Speaker:be doing? The same thing you should have been doing for however long you've been investing,
Speaker:dollar cost averaging. Do not try and determine where the bottom is. Do not try and determine
Speaker:where the top is. Just buy coin. Now, what should we be buying? I will give this word of caution.
Speaker:And I think I've been fairly clear about this over the last 43 episodes now. This is the 44th.
Speaker:We're closing in on number 50. My suggestion, my recommendation has always been we invest in assets
Speaker:that primarily in blue chip assets. What I would consider blue chip, high quality Bitcoin, Ethereum,
Speaker:you might want to put ADA in that group. And there's probably some more as well. Now,
Speaker:one of the interesting things, I just saw this actually, somebody has done a comparison.
Speaker:Let me see if I can find it real quick. Here it is actually. Coins from all time high. Okay. So
Speaker:this would have been roughly back in mid November. Bitcoin minus 55, excuse me, minus 50.55%. So just
Speaker:over 50%. Ethereum minus 48.5%. So Ethereum up till this point has actually done better. Now,
Speaker:it just broke a resistance an hour or so ago and it has started dropping. And I actually think it
Speaker:will end up catching up in terms of percentages with Bitcoin before this is over. But we're at
Speaker:24,060 right now. We actually sat at 2520 roughly for quite a while, which was a resistance point
Speaker:or a support point really. Sol, which we were just talking about yesterday, minus 70, not yesterday,
Speaker:our last episode minus 70.86%. AVAC, 60, I'm going to stop saying the minus 64.99%. Luna,
Speaker:50.03. Luna's done quite well. DOT, 70.56. ADA, 76.38. SHIB, 79.73. DOGE, 83.25.
Speaker:ONE, 81.32. LINK, 81.36. 71.07 for XRP. Matic is at 66.71. I looked at Matic recently, my gracious.
Speaker:Yeah, it was down. Atom, 65.13. Now, the question is, one question that we have not determined at
Speaker:this point is, is this going to be a bounce? Are we going to go down and hit 33, maybe 30, maybe 29,
Speaker:27,000, and then just get this sharp bounce where we get a lot of volume, retail jumps back in,
Speaker:and we shoot back up? I don't think so, but it's possible. Anything is possible.
Speaker:Even if we do go up, and we will go up at some point, now that we've established a lower low
Speaker:for our bottom, I think we will end up establishing a lower high for our top.
Speaker:So we're going to, I believe over the next few months, probably at least until the end of this
Speaker:year or close to it, we will probably continue to slowly fall. Now, we're not just going to drop down
Speaker:to whatever the figure is. We'll talk about that in just a second, but immediately it'll rise up.
Speaker:Maybe it goes up to 40,000 and then drops back down, and then goes back up to 38,000 and then
Speaker:drops back down. So you get this kind of up and down seesaw, but slowly dropping pattern.
Speaker:This is what we've actually been in for the most part since November. So it would not be surprising
Speaker:if that continued until we reached whatever the low is. So historically what we would expect to
Speaker:see a low of, one of the points is called a 200-week moving average. And I don't know what that
Speaker:number is off the top of my head, but there are a lot of people who believe, and you can show from
Speaker:evidence from past trading or past Bitcoin charts, that if you break another moving average, I think
Speaker:it's 55-week or probably 50-week moving average, that every time it's done that, that it has
Speaker:gone down and touched the 200-week moving average. And when we broke the 50-week moving average
Speaker:initially, to be honest, a lot of people thought, well, this was going to be different.
Speaker:So that's back when there were a lot of people who still thought that kind of this lengthening
Speaker:cycle theory. Turns out that's not really true. So at the same time, it probably also invalidates
Speaker:this idea that we could dip down and then not go all the way down to 200. So that 200-week moving
Speaker:average will be a very important figure. And that figure is changing over time. It's a moving average.
Speaker:That's what that means, oddly enough. And so as the weeks go by, it will change. So we can't just
Speaker:say, well, it's some value and then it's going to go down and hit that because that value will
Speaker:change over time. Now it'll be within a pretty reasonable range. We'll probably discuss that
Speaker:more in future episodes. Now, here's the crux of this though. Looking at those percentages,
Speaker:what did we see? We saw Bitcoin and Ethereum at roughly 50%. We saw a few others. Luna
Speaker:has done quite well, arguably in large part because they have a large supply of Bitcoin, but
Speaker:they've done well. And then the rest are at 60% and 70% drawdown. And this is probably not done.
Speaker:Even ADA is down. Now, ADA has not dropped so much during these last few days. It has dropped,
Speaker:certainly, but it's not been so dramatic as a lot of these other tokens. Now, knowing the amount of
Speaker:activity that's going on on ADA, the development that's going on in ADA, the use case for ADA,
Speaker:I would still argue even given that drawdown that I would still call it a blue chip asset, right?
Speaker:I would still lump it in there with Ethereum and Bitcoin and I would not be selling my ADA.
Speaker:What I would be concerned about are projects that don't have solid use cases, projects that are
Speaker:hopeful. I would classify things, frankly, like Shiba in that. And if I'm dollar cost averaging
Speaker:during a bear market, so let's say it's 2022 and we're not going to have another bull run
Speaker:for the next two years or maybe the next 18 months or something like that, or even the next year,
Speaker:what should you be investing in? Your best chance of success, blue chip stocks. I keep calling them
Speaker:stocks. I apologize. Blue chip assets, blue chip tokens. I would not recommend right now that you
Speaker:dump everything into Shiba Inu because it may never come back. We saw this during the previous
Speaker:bear cycles. Projects go into the cycle. They're not well organized. They don't have money. They
Speaker:don't have people. People are not around during a bear cycle. And one of the reasons why I know
Speaker:we're starting a bear cycle is really over the last couple of episodes, our viewership,
Speaker:our listenership has dropped off significantly. You see this on YouTube channels. Some of these
Speaker:channels had live viewings back in late last year, tens of thousands of people, and now they're
Speaker:lucky to get a thousand on when they do a show. It's already turning into this echo chamber.
Speaker:And that's okay. The people who stay around, who listen, who learn, who
Speaker:invest will be the ones who benefit the most. So congratulations if you're listening to this.
Speaker:You are truly dedicated. And I would encourage you very strongly, do not give up. And do not
Speaker:be like I did in 2018 when we hit in 2017, Bitcoin hit 20,000. And what did I do? I've told this
Speaker:story before. We froze at the top. We didn't sell because we didn't think it was a bear market.
Speaker:Kind of like what happened this time. We didn't think it was the 69,000 was the top. At least I
Speaker:didn't. But now that we've kind of established that that's going to be true and now we've got
Speaker:to look at the next probably 18, 24 months, here's what I'm going to be doing. I'm going
Speaker:to be doing, I'm going to be investing because things will be cheap because the next go around,
Speaker:69,000 won't be the all-time high. It'll be 100,000 or it'll be 120,000 or maybe it's even more.
Speaker:Time will tell. So if I'm buying Bitcoin, if Bitcoin dips to 20,000 and that's a big if,
Speaker:or even if it doesn't only for a day or so, which is entirely possible,
Speaker:well, I don't think it'll spend a long period of time there, but let's just say it does.
Speaker:That's a bargain. Oh, I'm buying Bitcoin at a quarter of the price that it will be
Speaker:in four years. That would be terrific, right? So this time, rather than sitting on my
Speaker:assets and watching them go away, not go drop in value, the assets are still there. They're
Speaker:just dropping in value. I will be actively following what's going on. If I have tokens,
Speaker:and I'm not saying, by the way, just to be clear, I'm not saying that you shouldn't have other tokens
Speaker:besides Ethereum, Bitcoin, ADA, whatever, but I'm certainly going to keep watching what's going on.
Speaker:And if I start to see a project self-destruct, then I will pull out what I can at whatever price
Speaker:that is and move it into something else. And there will be opportunities to get into projects at a
Speaker:very cheap price that in the long term, maybe they do go extremely high. Now, we can choose
Speaker:which projects we go into. And it's just like last week when I was talking about Solana.
Speaker:And again, if I had a bigger Twitter following, I probably would get a lot of hate about Solana,
Speaker:and that's okay. I'm allowed to my opinion, they're allowed to their opinion. In my opinion,
Speaker:Solana is not something that I would be putting money into at any price. If it dropped down to
Speaker:$10, I wouldn't buy it. That's just me, not financial advice, of course. But I'm fairly
Speaker:conservative. That's okay. Matic, Chainlink, Polygon, ADA, I would love to get more in ADA,
Speaker:to be honest. I don't know, even XRP, frankly, because I do believe during the next two years
Speaker:that that lawsuit will get resolved. And I'm not going to dump a whole bunch of money into ADA,
Speaker:or XRP, but I might put some in it. But I certainly will continue to stack sats
Speaker:by Bitcoin and by Ethereum, and some more ADA. So in general, that would be my recommendation.
Speaker:I know times are fearful. And I do know what it looks like to watch your portfolio fall in value.
Speaker:Just remember, just remember, first of all, when in doubt, zoom out, just like I always say,
Speaker:what's it going to be like four years from now? Stop worrying about what it's like right now.
Speaker:Four years from now, historically has shown that we've always done better.
Speaker:The other thing we've got going on, Bitcoin has never been around as a major player
Speaker:during tough financial times. And I will call it that. Now, I've discussed this on the podcast.
Speaker:I think we've got a lot more to go before things turn around.
Speaker:So we will have to see how it responds to that. But at some point, this will be over.
Speaker:This will be over. And in my opinion, it's firmly established that Bitcoin is a better store of value
Speaker:than something like a US dollar. That's just my opinion. So I'm not really going to worry
Speaker:too much about the price of Bitcoin versus the price of the US dollar, because the US dollar
Speaker:will be radically different in the next 10 years. It may no longer be around. It may be replaced
Speaker:with something, but it certainly will not be worth what it is right now. And what it is worth right
Speaker:now is declining in value. You can go back even just a couple years and it was worth more and go
Speaker:back 10 and 20 and so on and so forth. It's easily proven. So I just don't even actually think about
Speaker:that too much, to be honest. All right. So stay tough. Don't panic sell. Never panic sell. When
Speaker:you panic sell, you almost always are just making problems for yourself. That's going to be it for
Speaker:that tonight. I do have some news. And I'm going to start this by saying, I do believe that we are
Speaker:starting to see, and I realize the words that I'm saying have implications to them. But I mean this.
Speaker:The IMF is starting economic warfare against countries who would like to move to a Bitcoin
Speaker:standard. Now, when El Salvador made Bitcoin legal tender, we saw a report come out of the IMF
Speaker:saying, yeah, we're really not sure about that. That's probably not a good thing. And hey, you've
Speaker:got some loans with us and you know, they did it. They moved forward and everything has been okay.
Speaker:But there was a lot of, you kind of, you could tell that they were disgruntled, if that makes sense.
Speaker:Now, on the other hand, when the Central African Republic did the same thing, you saw more rumblings
Speaker:about it. Again, nothing substantial, but they're like, hey, this is not good. Argentina, and just
Speaker:in case you don't know the history on Argentina, Argentina has a long, long history of inflation,
Speaker:of even deflation, of just huge currency problems, going back close to a hundred years at this point.
Speaker:And I don't know the reasons for that. Honestly, I don't. I do know it's, and it's happened even
Speaker:very recently. They've had severe inflation. All right. So with that as the background,
Speaker:there were people in Argentina who were starting to make moves towards establishing Bitcoin as a
Speaker:legal tender. And they're doing this, but the same reason El Salvador is right. The same reason that
Speaker:the Central African Republic is. Their currency is not doing well, and they want to move to
Speaker:something that they feel is a better economic value and is more stable. Well,
Speaker:in the news this week, in the news link, I'll have a link to the article, one of the articles that I
Speaker:came across, but just a couple of days ago on Thursday, actually, the Central Bank of Argentina
Speaker:released a statement saying that the country's financial sector is not allowed to provide
Speaker:services related to digital assets, and that the country's financial sector is not allowed to
Speaker:to digital assets that are not regulated. And this effectively bans crypto transactions within the
Speaker:official economy. And they're doing this. Well, first of all, this happened just a couple of days
Speaker:after two very large, actually the two largest private banks by market value in Argentina
Speaker:announced that they were letting their customers purchase cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, Ethereum,
Speaker:other things. And it came, this announcement from the Central Bank came on the heels
Speaker:of the IMF approving a $45 billion loan. Oh, by the way, inflation is hitting 20-year highs
Speaker:in Argentina, and they've been high for a long time. So keep that in mind.
Speaker:So they have doubled down. They've been taking loans from the IMF for a long time.
Speaker:And the conspiracy theorist among us would argue that the IMF is actually the problem. But
Speaker:leaving that aside, it is very clear that the IMF said, hey, you can't let these banks do this,
Speaker:or we won't give you the loan. And this is what I mean by economic warfare.
Speaker:The IMF has made it very clear that they do not want cryptocurrency
Speaker:being used as money, as digital money, as a store of value, as anything like that,
Speaker:because they gain nothing from that. And the country that's doing it, the people who are
Speaker:doing it, they gain everything. So the control moves away from the IMF, who props up a large
Speaker:number of countries to the countries themselves, which is a great thing, in my opinion.
Speaker:So for $45 billion, they rode off crypto. So it didn't outlaw crypto. The people in
Speaker:Argentina can still use crypto, but it's going to be more difficult. So that is a sad thing.
Speaker:And I think this is, again, I'm aware of the implications of the imagery, but this is the
Speaker:opening volley in this. I think it's going to get a lot worse. As countries move to come online
Speaker:with crypto, with Bitcoin specifically, the IMF is going to hound them every step of the way.
Speaker:And if countries are under obligation to the IMF, or if they're going to be in the near future,
Speaker:I think the IMF will do stuff like this to make it more difficult. And that is
Speaker:sad. I look forward to the IMF no longer being around. I probably will not live to see that, but
Speaker:we'll see. All right. Now, oh, well, if you read further through the article, it does actually say
Speaker:that the agreement that they came out with for this loan explicitly says that the country would
Speaker:discourage the use of crypto in order to protect its financial sector. Now, they're under sky high
Speaker:inflation, but never mind. It's okay. Crypto won't, that'll just make it worse. I have some words
Speaker:for that, but it's Mother's Day and my mom probably wouldn't like me using those words. And
Speaker:I really shouldn't, so I won't. I just don't think they're a good thing at all. Anyways,
Speaker:that is the news. That's actually the only news other than the obvious crypto fall off the face
Speaker:of the earth as it dumps. We already discussed that at the top of the show. So before I signed
Speaker:off, I would just really reiterate, Hey, it's okay. We've been here before. This is not the
Speaker:first bear market. If that's what this ends up being, do not be frightened. Do not be
Speaker:frightened. Do not use this as a time to stop. You're making a huge mistake. And I would beg of
Speaker:you not to do that. If you want to create true generational wealth with cryptocurrency, it is
Speaker:done in the bear market. So congratulations, we've got a bear market. And the reality is we
Speaker:actually would hope that this lasts until 2024, because that will give us more time to accumulate.
Speaker:What would happen if you came out on the other side for one, two, three, four, five, 10 Bitcoin.
Speaker:And then the price goes up and maybe it does hit a hundred thousand dollars. What's a hundred
Speaker:thousand dollars times 10. It's a million dollars in Bitcoin. And I would hope that Bitcoin is not
Speaker:your only asset. So some good stuff to think about. You've got time. I would encourage you,
Speaker:if you're trading, be very, very careful. Do use stop losses. Do use, um, you know, um, do not be,
Speaker:don't be playing with stuff you can't afford to lose. All right. Oh, and I've been thinking, uh,
Speaker:actually one final little thing. I know I said final, but we'll say final again.
Speaker:If this really is going to be a bear market and we're going to spend a couple of years kind of
Speaker:grinding through things, um, I will probably expand things a little bit, actually not contract.
Speaker:Now I may go down to one episode a week because it's, it is a lot of work to do these episodes,
Speaker:to be honest, but we'll see. But I probably will start talking about trading more and going,
Speaker:and not that I want you guys all out there trading, but it is helpful. Like I told you,
Speaker:like earlier tonight, we were at that resistance level of 25, 20, uh, for Ethereum. That's called
Speaker:a resistance level and, um, or support level, actually in that case, the support is when it's
Speaker:holding it up, which it was in that case, once you break through, as you go up. So now that we're at
Speaker:46, 60, as we go up and hit that level, now it's a resistance level. I hope that made sense, but
Speaker:I think if I'm going to do video, once I get the video up and going, I will probably start
Speaker:doing some basic charting and, and show some things that would hopefully provide valuable content.
Speaker:This is the time to learn all the hype is going to be gone. You got, it's going to be a ghost town.
Speaker:It's, it's stunning how quickly it will drop and, but that's okay because the people who are out
Speaker:there making this happen are the ones who will deserve it during the next bull run when they've
Speaker:already got the capital together, the fuel together, and they can build something great.
Speaker:So the generational wealth cryptocurrency podcast supports podcasting 2.0. It is a value for value
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Speaker:time, talent, and treasure. If you want to support the podcast and have some time or talent,
Speaker:I could use some help with such things as chapters for the podcast, transcriptions,
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Speaker:I would love it if you'd tell your friends about the generational wealth cryptocurrency podcast.
Speaker:And as always, thanks for being here. I hope this has been helpful. I'd love to hear from you.
Speaker:I'm on Twitter at McIntoshFintech and you can reach me by email at mcintosh at genwealthcrypto.com.
Speaker:And of course, the generational wealth website is at genwealthcrypto.com. Now go out and make