The melt-up economy isn’t a victory lap, it’s the part of the horror movie where everyone thinks the monster is gone because the music gets quiet. Markets keep ripping, consumers keep spending money they don’t have, and the Fed is out here pretending their “pivot” wasn’t telegraphed like an amateur magician revealing the trick before the reveal. And meanwhile, everyone’s acting shocked that AI is destroying jobs when we’ve been screaming for a year that replacing humans with silicon brains might come with a little collateral damage.

➡️ But sure... recession? “What recession?” That’s the vibe. America is basically stress-shopping its way through warning signs big enough to put on billboards. Confidence surveys are collapsing, savings are gone, debt is exploding, and the only thing holding this whole Jenga tower up is hope… and hope is not a strategy we endorse. If a soft landing actually happens, it’ll be the first miracle the Fed has pulled off without breaking something in the process. Buckle up because the data says there is turbulence ahead, even if the captain keeps smiling.

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🔗 Resources:

Polymarket.com

Special Edition: Economic Insight (Stifel)

Mortgage rates dropped this week amid fresh signs of job market weakness (Yahoo! Finance)

Beige Book - November 2025 (Federal Reserve)

US consumer confidence tanks in November as Americans see more financial pain ahead (Yahoo! Finance)

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