Digital Marketing In 2024 Will The Paid Media Market Collapse

Kasim reveals a bold prediction about the future of digital marketing in 2024—anticipating a market collapse in the paid media space! Tune in for a thought-provoking discussion on the future of paid media and the emerging trends that could reshape the industry.

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7 Astonishing Digital Marketing Predictions for 2024 | Perpetual Traffic EP 551:

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0:00 Digital Marketing In 2024: Will The Paid Media Market Collapse?

2:01 Moving away from the straight line conversion model

4:39 One of the alternative routes

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Kasim: 00:00:11

All right, we are back.

2

: 00:00:11

Kossum, what is your number one

prediction or not necessarily your

3

: 00:00:14

number one prediction, but a prediction

for digital marketing in: 2024

4

: 00:00:20

There's going to be a market

collapse in the paid media space.

5

: 00:00:23

As a matter of fact, Ralph, I'll

say there has to be a market

6

: 00:00:25

collapse in the paid media space.

7

: 00:00:27

And we've talked about this a

lot, but I'll just, I'll repeat

8

: 00:00:29

the narrative for everybody.

9

: 00:00:29

It used to be that, the cost

per click was a couple of

10

: 00:00:32

cents and you could mint money.

11

: 00:00:33

And then it was, an efficient model

where, You know, we were paying

12

: 00:00:37

two or 3 per click and, you could

build a pipeline that, allowed you

13

: 00:00:41

to profit on the front end and then

massively profit on the backend.

14

: 00:00:44

And then the goal was to self

liquidate, which means that at least

15

: 00:00:47

you're covering your traffic costs.

16

: 00:00:49

And then the goal was, I'm not

liquidating on the front end, but

17

: 00:00:52

I'm, liquidating through Ascension.

18

: 00:00:54

And now the goal is I'm

profitable through LTV.

19

: 00:00:57

And that LTV mile marker is getting pushed

out further and further and further.

20

: 00:01:00

First, it was 30 days, 90 days.

21

: 00:01:02

Now you have businesses that aren't

profitable for the first year.

22

: 00:01:05

And that's not an uncommon occurrence.

23

: 00:01:08

And as with any market, the stock

market, bond market, any organic

24

: 00:01:13

market, we are now seeing Unsustainable

costs, unsustainable prices.

25

: 00:01:20

And I think businesses are going to go, in

other directions with their media spend.

26

: 00:01:24

And I think it's going to happen all

at once as these things are apt to do.

27

: 00:01:27

And then you're going to see a collapse

and that collapse is going to result in,

28

: 00:01:31

traffic costs that are far cheaper than

anything we've ever seen, but you'd have

29

: 00:01:35

to stay in the game in order to see that.

30

: 00:01:37

So who knows how well this

ages, that's the game you play

31

: 00:01:40

when you make predictions.

32

: 00:01:41

But dude, I've got so many

clients that I'm just looking at.

33

: 00:01:44

The way their model is structured

against paid advertising.

34

: 00:01:46

And I'm like, I don't see how

this works for you long term.

35

: 00:01:48

And I think a lot of people

are in that exact same space.

36

: 00:01:51

So something's got to give.

37

: 00:01:52

So a separate prediction,

but related is I do see.

38

: 00:01:57

moving away from the straight

line conversion model, which is

39

: 00:02:00

where all the expensive ads are.

40

: 00:02:02

And we talked to the marketing ants,

the grain guys about this, but I just

41

: 00:02:05

see that as there is no other way

to survive in this space, especially

42

: 00:02:09

if you don't have the war chest.

43

: 00:02:12

of the software industry or CRM

or whatever it happens to be, or

44

: 00:02:15

you're, playing the long game.

45

: 00:02:18

If your return on your ad spend is less

than 30 days, you're going to be squeezed

46

: 00:02:24

out really of that conversion market.

47

: 00:02:27

It's a cashflow issue.

48

: 00:02:28

So you have to be able to look

at things longer term, obviously

49

: 00:02:31

build, not only upsells and Ascension

models, but also continuity.

50

: 00:02:36

Other ways to enhance lifetime value.

51

: 00:02:38

So there is that, which is absolutely

essential for any business.

52

: 00:02:42

And we'll do a show on LTV cause

it's keeps coming up all the time.

53

: 00:02:46

at least, in the audits that we're

doing now, by the way, like we gave

54

: 00:02:50

away 10 of those things, like seven of

them, I think we did our eights like

55

: 00:02:53

this week so that we're seeing a ton

of businesses come from this podcast

56

: 00:02:58

here that obviously they, Are looking

ow do I survive and thrive in: 2024

57

: 00:03:03

And AOV is a huge deal right now.

58

: 00:03:06

It's something that a lot of businesses

struggle with because if you can do both,

59

: 00:03:10

if you can enhance your AOV, but also

you can play that awareness consideration

60

: 00:03:15

conversion game that we've talked about

here on the show many times, that's

61

: 00:03:21

where you're investing in different

campaign types that aren't as expensive.

62

: 00:03:26

And in some cases it's 10 to 20 times

less to get in front of maybe the audience

63

: 00:03:33

that isn't ready quite yet to purchase,

or maybe considering purchasing, but

64

: 00:03:38

maybe you can create your market for you

through awareness ads, through reach ads,

65

: 00:03:43

through video view ads, and then maybe

even a Middle transitionary period with

66

: 00:03:47

a lead magnet that ultimately leads to

the sale, that type of traffic is less

67

: 00:03:52

expensive and it's still less expensive.

68

: 00:03:55

And I see that as a trend in 2024 is maybe

even a resolution to what you're talking

69

: 00:04:01

about here or a strategy moving forward.

70

: 00:04:04

That's what the squeeze,

that's where you got to go.

71

: 00:04:05

Forces people top of funnel forces people,

alternative media routes, I guess the

72

: 00:04:09

segue would be your next prediction,

Ralph, but I have a piggyback on this.

73

: 00:04:13

for when the time comes.

74

: 00:04:14

lay it on us.

75

: 00:04:15

come on.

76

: 00:04:16

one of the alternative routes that I see

people pursuing is the influencer space.

77

: 00:04:20

I think that influencer marketing, if

I can't go to Google and I can't go

78

: 00:04:24

to Meta and I can't just say, I want

to play and here's what it costs.

79

: 00:04:28

The next smartest thing for me to

do is to find the influencers and

80

: 00:04:31

micro influencers in that space,

and partner and pay with them.

81

: 00:04:34

And I think the level of sophistication

in that model is going to increase.

82

: 00:04:37

And I think there's going to be

an absolute gold rush towards

83

: 00:04:41

influencers and Michael influencers.

84

: 00:04:43

and I don't think it's going

to happen to the directories.

85

: 00:04:45

It might happen through, agency

broker, talent managers, et cetera.

86

: 00:04:49

but really the best way to leverage

influencers is through direct

87

: 00:04:53

relationships with those influencers.

88

: 00:04:55

and I think influencers are going

to wield so much more power.

89

: 00:04:59

And it's going to be cross platform.

90

: 00:05:02

Like it's an influencer

inside of Instagram.

91

: 00:05:04

Generally speaking,

look at Evan Carmichael.

92

: 00:05:06

Evan Carmichael is a YouTube

guy, but his Instagram is super

93

: 00:05:08

hot and his Facebook super high.

94

: 00:05:10

You know what I mean?

95

: 00:05:10

Like it cascades across multiple channels.

96

: 00:05:13

And their reach will exceed

a per channel perspective and

97

: 00:05:16

their ability to move users.

98

: 00:05:17

Because when you get a placement,

CPM with an influencer is way

99

: 00:05:21

different than CPM with an ad network.

100

: 00:05:23

Because if I get a thousand

views in meta, that's a thousand

101

: 00:05:25

views to a cold audience.

102

: 00:05:26

If I get a thousand views from Evan

Carmichael, the world authority inside of

103

: 00:05:29

YouTube, people trust him and he's already

specific and he's identified his niche.

104

: 00:05:34

and if he's smart, I know Evan,

Personally, I know he is, he's only

105

: 00:05:37

going to represent brands that he knows

are in alignment with his audience.

106

: 00:05:41

And so the value of that

traffic is exponentially higher.

107

: 00:05:44

And right now, interestingly,

it's actually a lot cheaper.

108

: 00:05:46

That's a pain in the ass to structure.

109

: 00:05:48

Those deals are hard.

110

: 00:05:49

The relationships are hard doing

the outreach is hard, but I think

111

: 00:05:51

that people are going to get

better at that moving forward.

112

: 00:05:53

I don't know exactly how it manifests, As

an end result, but if you're looking for a

113

: 00:05:57

place to put your ad dollars, man, I'd go.

114

: 00:05:59

I'd go to influencers right away.

115

: 00:06:01

that's one of the things that we

talked about with the marketing

116

: 00:06:03

against the grain guys was that

strategy, which they're doing.

117

: 00:06:06

And I think HubSpot is great

because HubSpot is many times like

118

: 00:06:10

leading especially on the AI side.

119

: 00:06:13

But what their strategy is really smart

because they're not going for the, the

120

: 00:06:18

Kim Kardashians and the rocks of the

world, and they're not going for the tiny

121

: 00:06:22

little guys who will just do anything

for anyone like the micro influencers.

122

: 00:06:25

And there's apparently there's like seven

different levels of influencer, but really

123

: 00:06:30

the ones that are in the middle have a

large enough following that they will.

124

: 00:06:35

Back your product and, utilize

your product only if they believe

125

: 00:06:41

that it will help their audience.

126

: 00:06:43

But it's context appropriate too, right?

127

: 00:06:45

So like correct for HubSpot,

that's a much larger influencer

128

: 00:06:50

than if I'm a landscaping company.

129

: 00:06:52

Dude, there's a mommy

blogger in your city, Mr.

130

: 00:06:55

and Mrs.

131

: 00:06:55

Landscaper right now today

that has 250 people following

132

: 00:06:58

her, but that's 250 homes.

133

: 00:07:01

Most landscapers don't

have that many clients.

134

: 00:07:04

term micro and the seven

levels you're talking about,

135

: 00:07:06

they're so context dependent.

136

: 00:07:07

I wouldn't dismiss small influencers,

especially if you're a small

137

: 00:07:10

business because some of those folks.

138

: 00:07:13

My wife's a really good

example of this, man.

139

: 00:07:14

She's not what you would consider

to be like world famous, but the

140

: 00:07:17

people that follow her, she does

a lot of geopolitical stuff.

141

: 00:07:20

She has a degree in

international human rights.

142

: 00:07:21

She can move mountains and she gets

on podcasts and people are really

143

: 00:07:24

interested in what she has to say.

144

: 00:07:25

and so I think the right small influencer

could actually be more impactful

145

: 00:07:29

than the larger influencers who have

diluted messaging or diluted audiences.

146

: 00:07:32

They're not niched down.

147

: 00:07:33

I think it really has

to be a match for you.

148

: 00:07:35

And this does take some work.

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