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2023-01-05. Predictions
Episode 95th January 2023 • Aboard Podcast • Aboard
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Rich and Paul come back to the office after the holidays just full of predictions for tech, politics, and the economy.

Transcripts

Paul Ford:

rich, how were your holidays?

Rich Ziade:

They were pretty good.

Rich Ziade:

They were pretty good.

Rich Ziade:

Um, relaxing.

Rich Ziade:

Lots of family over Christmas dinner.

Rich Ziade:

It was quite lovely.

Rich Ziade:

Um, but really hunkered down and kind of chilled out.

Rich Ziade:

Kids were sick.

Rich Ziade:

Everybody was sick.

Rich Ziade:

I think I gave it to everyone, but

Paul Ford:

We came over for Christmas dinner.

Paul Ford:

It was, it was fantastic.

Rich Ziade:

It was very nice to have you.

Rich Ziade:

It was a very filled house.

Rich Ziade:

It was like 20 something

Paul Ford:

It's fun to be the Irish, mostly Irish family in the giant Lebanese

Rich Ziade:

It's just very loud all around you.

Paul Ford:

you.

Paul Ford:

the food's really

Rich Ziade:

The food's wonderful.

Rich Ziade:

Yeah.

Paul Ford:

everybody, everybody is just kinda, I, I don't know.

Paul Ford:

We're, you're all used to us and we're used to you.

Paul Ford:

It's really nice.

Paul Ford:

So, okay, here we are.

Paul Ford:

It's 2023.

Paul Ford:

Year.

Paul Ford:

Happy New Year.

Paul Ford:

Ziti Ford Advisors.

Paul Ford:

Our podcast is, is still very new.

Paul Ford:

We're getting to.

Paul Ford:

Yep.

Paul Ford:

And, uh, let's make some predictions.

Paul Ford:

Let's help people get their years started off right, it.

Rich Ziade:

I'll take tech.

Paul Ford:

All right.

Paul Ford:

Where, where is it gonna go?

Rich Ziade:

Uh, I think in the, we've been seeing this heading in this

Rich Ziade:

direction for a while, but I think we are going to see quality over

Rich Ziade:

quantity really take hold this year.

Paul Ford:

Gimme an example.

Rich Ziade:

The world is filled with very short, brief

Rich Ziade:

snippets,

Rich Ziade:

like little Cheeto bites of.

Rich Ziade:

That's what is fueled and funded the web for so long.

Rich Ziade:

And I think, uh, I think, uh, that is starting to exhaust everyone.

Rich Ziade:

So that's one narrative.

Rich Ziade:

you can see it, right?

Rich Ziade:

You can feel it.

Paul Ford:

this is my take on Twitter.

Paul Ford:

It's not that Elam Musk will wreck Twitter.

Paul Ford:

I mean, , he actually has more than I thought Um, it's that the fever kind of

Paul Ford:

broke and, and then when you go and you look at something else and you're like,

Paul Ford:

Ugh, God, I just gotta get off this site.

Paul Ford:

Then you come back and you're like, it's like when you, it's like when

Paul Ford:

you eat like a, like a bad bodega.

Paul Ford:

fried

Paul Ford:

pie after like two, you know, it's been like five years.

Rich Ziade:

is in that?

Paul Ford:

Fried.

Paul Ford:

Just fried?

Paul Ford:

No, like a fried apple pie.

Paul Ford:

You know they have like the sugar glazing

Rich Ziade:

thing is pretty

Paul Ford:

it.

Paul Ford:

It is, but, but it's also, you taste it and you're like, this is not apple.

Paul Ford:

Like, I remember this as being kind of a, you know, it has no flavor.

Paul Ford:

It's just, it's just a.

Rich Ziade:

of fat and sugar and butter.

Rich Ziade:

It's

Paul Ford:

caloric blast, right?

Paul Ford:

It doesn't have flavor or variety or, and, and so, and it's been five years and when

Paul Ford:

you go away from Twitter for like five minutes, you come back, you're like, God,

Paul Ford:

it just, everybody just seems so unhappy.

Rich Ziade:

and, and I think the, the consumption, uh, patterns are changing.

Rich Ziade:

I think people are, um, gravitating back towards, uh, deeper,

Rich Ziade:

more carefully crafted stuff.

Rich Ziade:

And you're seeing that like, like why would, um, a CK.

Rich Ziade:

Succeed.

Rich Ziade:

It's not because the

Paul Ford:

in a certain cohort, I, I, TikTok is bigger than everything we've

Rich Ziade:

ever, TikTok is bigger than everything we ever imagined.

Rich Ziade:

But even for TikTok, I would say eventually, here's the thing, I think

Rich Ziade:

that's happened with tech, and I'm gonna go on a tangent for a brief second

Paul Ford:

Nobody can, it's a prediction.

Paul Ford:

You can say whatever you want.

Rich Ziade:

Here's the thing with tech, um, the way tech has been,

Rich Ziade:

Optimized over the last 10 years.

Rich Ziade:

It's very generational.

Rich Ziade:

It like it's lame to the next generation.

Rich Ziade:

Always.

Rich Ziade:

Like even Instagram, which found Facebook lame is now

Rich Ziade:

looking lame to, it looks like.

Rich Ziade:

Brunch in New York City.

Rich Ziade:

That's all it

Paul Ford:

help when they do the promoted like belly fat ads in

Paul Ford:

the middle of the stream, right?

Paul Ford:

Like, it's just

Rich Ziade:

It's terrible.

Rich Ziade:

And so I think all of these things, all the, all of these things

Rich Ziade:

have expiration dates, frankly.

Rich Ziade:

Uh, but, but I do think that there is a return there is going to continue

Rich Ziade:

to be value in, um, something that.

Rich Ziade:

Isn't trying to get you, isn't trying to manipulate you, is actually

Rich Ziade:

trying to inform and entertain you that has some craft put into it.

Rich Ziade:

Um, to me the, the real sort of survivor over of the internet and has barreled

Rich Ziade:

through and will come back out on top again if it's not already on top, is hbo.

Rich Ziade:

But the power of their content and their, their, their willingness to kind of

Rich Ziade:

stick to quality, um, has allowed them.

Rich Ziade:

With frankly, I, I don't know the budgets, but I have to imagine they

Rich Ziade:

spend a lot less than Netflix or some of the other big players has allowed

Rich Ziade:

them to just barrel through and still get you to pay 10 bucks a month.

Rich Ziade:

And the reason for that isn't because of 18 second videos.

Rich Ziade:

It is because some of their series take a year and a half

Rich Ziade:

before the next season shows up.

Rich Ziade:

They just are absolutely committed to the creative, uh, side of things.

Rich Ziade:

Like I think people are overwhelmed.

Rich Ziade:

They're looking.

Rich Ziade:

For, I think curation is gonna, is gonna make a big comeback

Rich Ziade:

because people need help.

Rich Ziade:

It doesn't help me when Spotify pums me with 30,000 songs

Rich Ziade:

telling me, check out this stuff.

Rich Ziade:

It doesn't help

Paul Ford:

Let me throw this back to

Rich Ziade:

Less is more.

Rich Ziade:

That's my prediction in tech for 2023.

Paul Ford:

Let me throw this back to you.

Paul Ford:

Culture is not a database.

Paul Ford:

It looks like a database to a database.

Rich Ziade:

bless his heart or her heart.

Paul Ford:

Yes.

Paul Ford:

The, so when people interact with culture, they don't just want to get search engine

Paul Ford:

And so they go to forums and they talk on the forums and they go other places.

Paul Ford:

And then what happens is giant technology companies were like, no,

Paul Ford:

we now you need to do that over here because, we'll, we'll make it easier and

Rich Ziade:

That's right.

Paul Ford:

And, but they weren't able to deliver the value, they weren't

Paul Ford:

able to deliver the community and the.

Rich Ziade:

That's because they sought.

Paul Ford:

That's Right.

Rich Ziade:

And, and they needed scale because it was ad driven and nothing

Rich Ziade:

against ad driven, but you needed scale.

Paul Ford:

Right.

Paul Ford:

But you can't have those communities.

Paul Ford:

And so as people grow in, in their lives, they get into things.

Rich Ziade:

Yes.

Paul Ford:

And so suddenly they need those communities.

Paul Ford:

You're into headphones.

Paul Ford:

I'm in modular synthesizers, two nerdy, middle-aged dad kind of things to be into.

Paul Ford:

Right?

Paul Ford:

And we're not gonna, I'm not gonna find what I need on Google or Facebook.

Paul Ford:

Some of it's on Facebook.

Paul Ford:

Some of it's, sure, this groups, but it's one of many places

Paul Ford:

that's not the community.

Rich Ziade:

You're seeking out less noise and you're seeking out

Rich Ziade:

more, um, signal and better signal.

Rich Ziade:

And, and I think pe more and more people are realizing they need it.

Rich Ziade:

People are exhausted.

Rich Ziade:

I even young people, I think are finding it.

Rich Ziade:

It's, it's fun to kind of do that and just scroll mindlessly for a bit,

Rich Ziade:

but I think you're still seeking.

Rich Ziade:

It's gonna become cool to show off the book you just read again.

Paul Ford:

All right.

Paul Ford:

That's a hell of a accomplishment if, uh, we get there in 2023, but, all right.

Rich Ziade:

I, I don't know if it's a 2023 thing.

Rich Ziade:

I, this is my prediction for the next four years.

Rich Ziade:

We don't have to do this podcast next year.

Rich Ziade:

Okay,

Paul Ford:

That's nice.

Paul Ford:

I'm gonna put that on the

Paul Ford:

calendar.

Rich Ziade:

tell me what, you give me a prediction

Paul Ford:

I'll take politics.

Rich Ziade:

Oh boy.

Paul Ford:

It's a pretty simple one.

Paul Ford:

I think we're entering a new phase of gridlock in America.

Rich Ziade:

Oh, . That's not much of a prediction, but, okay.

Rich Ziade:

Yeah,

Paul Ford:

no, I mean, you know, the Republicans have the house, but

Paul Ford:

they don't have a huge majority.

Paul Ford:

The the speaker is now fighting with it.

Paul Ford:

They're kind of fighting amongst themselves.

Paul Ford:

The Democrats have new leadership, and Biden is this sort of like

Paul Ford:

calm, stable, administrator.

Paul Ford:

And so for whatever people might think of him.

Paul Ford:

And so, uh, the drama is way down and people are gonna try to cook

Paul Ford:

up new drama, but there is no engine like Trump and I just don't

Paul Ford:

think that Trump can get back in.

Paul Ford:

He did his digital playing cards and he like, is kind of

Paul Ford:

announced his, his new campaign.

Paul Ford:

Maybe he can, he went it first, but he's looking kind of old, tired.

Paul Ford:

So I

Rich Ziade:

do you think people are tired?

Paul Ford:

Yes.

Rich Ziade:

Okay.

Rich Ziade:

So you think part of this isn't just politicians.

Rich Ziade:

Chilling out.

Rich Ziade:

It's just the game.

Rich Ziade:

And I think this goes back to my point around tech is you can only

Rich Ziade:

play that trick so many times.

Rich Ziade:

And I think people are tired.

Paul Ford:

Humans don't care, right?

Paul Ford:

They wanna just, they wanna buy a TV at a store and, and

Paul Ford:

it should be a really good tv.

Paul Ford:

And then they wanna watch the shows.

Paul Ford:

Most humans.

Paul Ford:

I used to have the fantasy as a web guy that everybody wanted to create

Paul Ford:

content and do things and so on.

Paul Ford:

There's very, like everybody, you know, the, the tech industry in particular

Paul Ford:

like has a fantasy that everybody wants to be a programmer and they all want to

Paul Ford:

create content and most people don't.

Rich Ziade:

Do you think

Paul Ford:

most people, you said something to me once you're like,

Paul Ford:

most people just want a piece of fish.

Rich Ziade:

a good piece of fish ball is a wonderful

Paul Ford:

98% of the world just would like a good piece of

Rich Ziade:

fish, . That's fair.

Rich Ziade:

Let, so let me ask you this.

Rich Ziade:

I mean, your prediction are, are you saying this is a positive turn?

Paul Ford:

I could go for some cob.

Rich Ziade:

I think many people could.

Paul Ford:

Yeah.

Paul Ford:

I think collectively as a species, we, we just really would like,

Paul Ford:

like I I, well, one thing the last five, six years has shown me as a

Paul Ford:

manager, as a business owner, as a

Rich Ziade:

father,

Paul Ford:

as a father, as a person who's connected to politics and relatively

Paul Ford:

progressive, you can't change another human being's It just doesn't work.

Paul Ford:

They, they believe what they believe.

Paul Ford:

Sometimes you can bunch things a little this way and that way you

Paul Ford:

really can't change their mind.

Paul Ford:

Yeah.

Paul Ford:

And so this idea of the last seven, eight years, it's just like we,

Paul Ford:

we've been trying to like achieve some kind of societal change through

Paul Ford:

Twitter and activism and it's like everybody's a little fried.

Rich Ziade:

Yeah.

Rich Ziade:

I agree with that.

Rich Ziade:

And, and I'm okay with this prediction for this year.

Rich Ziade:

I think everybody could use it.

Rich Ziade:

I think, um, I think people have come to see the tricks better.

Rich Ziade:

I believe that,

Paul Ford:

well, it's dc there's, there's always an immune system where

Paul Ford:

you start to like go like, well, they're manipulating me, and then

Paul Ford:

they find new ways to manipulate you.

Paul Ford:

It is what it is.

Rich Ziade:

I forget how the calendar works.

Rich Ziade:

Last question for you.

Rich Ziade:

So this year I think people announced their candidacy right?

Rich Ziade:

To like for,

Rich Ziade:

to run

Paul Ford:

Yeah.

Paul Ford:

Trope was early.

Rich Ziade:

the, are the primaries.

Rich Ziade:

This year, I, I don't know what the calendar

Paul Ford:

No, you start.

Paul Ford:

I don't remember.

Paul Ford:

I don't think so.

Paul Ford:

I think I like,

Rich Ziade:

But people do get out there, they start

Paul Ford:

to, oh yeah.

Paul Ford:

They do those debates with 700 Republicans.

Rich Ziade:

Do

Rich Ziade:

you think it'll be less divisive?

Paul Ford:

No.

Paul Ford:

I think it's like anything you, you, you think it'll calm down.

Paul Ford:

As you get closer and closer to the big events, it gets more and more bananas.

Rich Ziade:

Do you think it'll be less bananas than the last couple of cycles

Paul Ford:

because we had this unusual presence.

Paul Ford:

Right.

Paul Ford:

Imagine like, I mean, it's literally, you know, Marjorie Taylor

Paul Ford:

Green's brain on a TV celebrity.

Paul Ford:

Like it was unprecedented.

Rich Ziade:

Yeah.

Rich Ziade:

Do you, so you think it'll be less mud slinging at the debates and things like

Paul Ford:

that?

Paul Ford:

Uh, it'll always be grizzly and horrible.

Paul Ford:

You just won't have this like, radiating set of, of situations that just make

Paul Ford:

everybody miserable all the time.

Paul Ford:

It'll just be awful.

Paul Ford:

You'll, you'll look at your team baseline.

Paul Ford:

Yeah.

Paul Ford:

You'll look at your team and you'll go like, oh, I can't believe

Paul Ford:

that's who I have to vote for.

Paul Ford:

And then you'll look at the other team and you'll go, they'll kill everyone I love.

Paul Ford:

Yeah, right.

Paul Ford:

And so, and you'll make your decision and like, we'll, I will, I'm sure

Paul Ford:

by the end of the year find lots of things to be horrified about.

Paul Ford:

But, but at least for right now, it just feels like, you know, just

Paul Ford:

business as usual for a minute.

Paul Ford:

So I just like less drama.

Paul Ford:

It's a prediction, not a goal.

Rich Ziade:

a little connected to mine, my prediction in tech, which

Rich Ziade:

is just everyone calming down and seeking out better experiences rather

Rich Ziade:

than more divisive, ugly experiences.

Paul Ford:

All right.

Paul Ford:

I got one more for you.

Paul Ford:

Let's keep this a short podcast.

Paul Ford:

Getting back into the, into the new year.

Paul Ford:

Ooh, one more.

Paul Ford:

The economy.

Paul Ford:

What do you think's gonna happen with Muddy?

Rich Ziade:

Um,

Rich Ziade:

I, this is, this is above my pay.

Rich Ziade:

Frankly, um, I, I do.

Rich Ziade:

We're

Paul Ford:

employ.

Rich Ziade:

We're self-employed.

Rich Ziade:

Um, I, I'll say this, I, I think, I think the world is gonna hold onto its

Rich Ziade:

money a lot more as to, I don't know, the cr I, I hate it when people say,

Rich Ziade:

I think we're gonna get a recession.

Rich Ziade:

I don't even know, I don't know what the criteria is.

Rich Ziade:

I don't know if there is a standards body that decides that we are in one.

Rich Ziade:

I

Paul Ford:

It's also the last year has been like recession.

Paul Ford:

No.

Paul Ford:

Yeah.

Paul Ford:

Like there's like a, like a, a magic eight ball.

Paul Ford:

It's

Rich Ziade:

It's just a good.

Rich Ziade:

I, I do think, look, the market's lost.

Rich Ziade:

They shed, you know, X percent in, in tech, I think it's

Rich Ziade:

over 50% of their value.

Rich Ziade:

Some companies are down 80, 90%.

Rich Ziade:

What does that mean?

Rich Ziade:

That means like the buffet, the lunch buffet is just not gonna

Rich Ziade:

be as exciting as it usually is.

Rich Ziade:

What does that mean?

Rich Ziade:

That means the caterer doesn't get as much revenue.

Rich Ziade:

What does that mean?

Rich Ziade:

That means the farmers don't get to sell as much goods or whatever.

Rich Ziade:

So I do think people are gonna hold on to their money.

Rich Ziade:

Uh, this year Does that?

Rich Ziade:

I'm not, I'm no economist and so I, I'm not gonna speculate as to

Rich Ziade:

how that turns into a recession.

Rich Ziade:

I think that's what that means.

Rich Ziade:

Um, is that something that you end up in the doldrums for a few months?

Rich Ziade:

My sense is, I hope there are some things that happen in the world that

Rich Ziade:

Take a turn for the better they get, gets, gets, gives everyone a chance to

Rich Ziade:

exhale and maybe loosen up and have a little more confidence in the future.

Rich Ziade:

I think right now we're sort of, we're still getting waking up from the, the

Rich Ziade:

pandemic, the u The war in Ukraine is ongoing, so the idea of betting

Rich Ziade:

on like making five year bets right now just doesn't feel really good

Paul Ford:

if we, if we look at the actual chaos of the world, right?

Paul Ford:

Like it's a less disastrous winter from an energy policy point

Paul Ford:

of view because climate change

Rich Ziade:

Yeah.

Paul Ford:

got like, it's, it's nice out in New York City right now.

Paul Ford:

Right?

Paul Ford:

And same in Europe.

Paul Ford:

So, so the whole, some of the Ukraine like aftershocks are a little less profound.

Rich Ziade:

I'll go ahead and make a prediction though, cuz

Rich Ziade:

that sounded like a cop out.

Rich Ziade:

I, I do think people are gonna hold onto their money more, but I think people,

Rich Ziade:

I think people this upcoming year will start to open up again and I don't think

Rich Ziade:

we're in for like a three year slog is my

Paul Ford:

It doesn't look that way.

Paul Ford:

Right?

Paul Ford:

Like what something would have, there'd have to be something

Paul Ford:

a little more precipitating.

Paul Ford:

And I think also there were the days where something like the tech

Paul Ford:

crash could really affect the rest of the economy in a specific way.

Paul Ford:

But lots of value to value having God bless Tesla voters.

Paul Ford:

Uh, but uh, it just doesn't, like there's still a big old economy humming.

Rich Ziade:

And we're, we are in the United States, so we are talking about

Rich Ziade:

just this juggernaut of an economy, right.

Rich Ziade:

Like there's

Paul Ford:

we just roll around in good fortune

Rich Ziade:

Yeah.

Rich Ziade:

Can I, can I throw a wish in?

Paul Ford:

I love wishes.

Rich Ziade:

love to see, uh, I'm Lebanese Lebanon has had one heck of

Rich Ziade:

a rough run for the last four years.

Rich Ziade:

Its economy is utterly cratered.

Rich Ziade:

It's politically paralyzed.

Rich Ziade:

It's in a bad spot on the earth, just generally.

Rich Ziade:

It's just a tricky place.

Rich Ziade:

I hope we get some good news of some sort out of there.

Rich Ziade:

I don't know what it could be.

Rich Ziade:

I can't hear.

Rich Ziade:

Anyone tell me anymore about how resilient the Lebanese are?

Rich Ziade:

Everyone, Lebanese people are tired of hearing that.

Rich Ziade:

Uh, hopefully we get some tangible good news in 2023.

Paul Ford:

that's it is unfortunately completely true cuz

Paul Ford:

we work a lots of Lebanese people

Rich Ziade:

people.

Rich Ziade:

Yeah.

Paul Ford:

resilient.

Paul Ford:

Resilient Lebanese

Rich Ziade:

Well, the irony, well, it's not even irony.

Rich Ziade:

The reality is they are, they're extremely resilient.

Rich Ziade:

But still some good news would be nice.

Paul Ford:

I'll tell you what though.

Paul Ford:

When you know a lot of Lebanese people and you kind of get in there,

Paul Ford:

it, it's, it's a little, it's a plate of scrambled eggs in there.

Paul Ford:

It's a mess, man.

Paul Ford:

Like, no, nobody goes through those experiences without

Paul Ford:

facing some consequence,

Rich Ziade:

but I me tell you, they are delicious scrambled

Paul Ford:

eggs.

Paul Ford:

Oh, they're really good.

Paul Ford:

They're, it's got that little sausage.

Rich Ziade:

Uh, we wish everyone a, everyone is gonna have their own 2023.

Rich Ziade:

Paul, we just gave macro predictions about the world.

Rich Ziade:

Uh, very kind.

Rich Ziade:

We're expecting the world to take a kinder turn.

Rich Ziade:

Paul, you and I are being really optimistic about , about humanity.

Paul Ford:

don't know why, like I think we just had a nice holiday,

Paul Ford:

so now we're like, oh, you know me, we're, everything's very like a little

Paul Ford:

recession, but nothing too bad, right?

Rich Ziade:

maybe we do this again in a

Paul Ford:

Oh, can you imagine at six months from now when we check in,

Paul Ford:

it's someone out there and listening.

Paul Ford:

You don't have to send us an email.

Paul Ford:

Just keep an eye.

Paul Ford:

In six months from now, you can get in touch and be like, you guys are idiot.

Rich Ziade:

Yes.

Rich Ziade:

But keep in touch.

Rich Ziade:

Let us know what you think.

Rich Ziade:

Tell us your predictions, and if you've got any questions,

Rich Ziade:

reach out@hellozford.com.

Rich Ziade:

And if you're so inclined, please give us those five stars and share the spread

Rich Ziade:

the word about the Zian Ford Advisors

Paul Ford:

advisors.

Paul Ford:

All right.

Paul Ford:

Let's go.

Rich Ziade:

Good luck this year, Paul.

Paul Ford:

Good luck, Richard.

Paul Ford:

Bye-bye.

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