Rich and Paul come back to the office after the holidays just full of predictions for tech, politics, and the economy.

rich, how were your holidays?

They were pretty good.

They were pretty good.

Um, relaxing.

Lots of family over Christmas dinner.

It was quite lovely.

Um, but really hunkered down and kind of chilled out.

Kids were sick.

Everybody was sick.

I think I gave it to everyone, but

We came over for Christmas dinner.

It was, it was fantastic.

It was very nice to have you.

It was a very filled house.

It was like 20 something

It's fun to be the Irish, mostly Irish family in the giant Lebanese

It's just very loud all around you.

you.

the food's really

The food's wonderful.

Yeah.

everybody, everybody is just kinda, I, I don't know.

We're, you're all used to us and we're used to you.

It's really nice.

So, okay, here we are.

It's 2023.

Year.

Happy New Year.

Ziti Ford Advisors.

Our podcast is, is still very new.

We're getting to.

Yep.

And, uh, let's make some predictions.

Let's help people get their years started off right, it.

I'll take tech.

All right.

Where, where is it gonna go?

Uh, I think in the, we've been seeing this heading in this

direction for a while, but I think we are going to see quality over

quantity really take hold this year.

Gimme an example.

The world is filled with very short, brief

snippets,

like little Cheeto bites of.

That's what is fueled and funded the web for so long.

And I think, uh, I think, uh, that is starting to exhaust everyone.

So that's one narrative.

you can see it, right?

You can feel it.

this is my take on Twitter.

It's not that Elam Musk will wreck Twitter.

I mean, , he actually has more than I thought Um, it's that the fever kind of

broke and, and then when you go and you look at something else and you're like,

Ugh, God, I just gotta get off this site.

Then you come back and you're like, it's like when you, it's like when

you eat like a, like a bad bodega.

fried

pie after like two, you know, it's been like five years.

is in that?

Fried.

Just fried?

No, like a fried apple pie.

You know they have like the sugar glazing

thing is pretty

it.

It is, but, but it's also, you taste it and you're like, this is not apple.

Like, I remember this as being kind of a, you know, it has no flavor.

It's just, it's just a.

of fat and sugar and butter.

It's

caloric blast, right?

It doesn't have flavor or variety or, and, and so, and it's been five years and when

you go away from Twitter for like five minutes, you come back, you're like, God,

it just, everybody just seems so unhappy.

and, and I think the, the consumption, uh, patterns are changing.

I think people are, um, gravitating back towards, uh, deeper,

more carefully crafted stuff.

And you're seeing that like, like why would, um, a CK.

Succeed.

It's not because the

in a certain cohort, I, I, TikTok is bigger than everything we've

ever, TikTok is bigger than everything we ever imagined.

But even for TikTok, I would say eventually, here's the thing, I think

that's happened with tech, and I'm gonna go on a tangent for a brief second

Nobody can, it's a prediction.

You can say whatever you want.

Here's the thing with tech, um, the way tech has been,

Optimized over the last 10 years.

It's very generational.

It like it's lame to the next generation.

Always.

Like even Instagram, which found Facebook lame is now

looking lame to, it looks like.

Brunch in New York City.

That's all it

help when they do the promoted like belly fat ads in

the middle of the stream, right?

Like, it's just

It's terrible.

And so I think all of these things, all the, all of these things

have expiration dates, frankly.

Uh, but, but I do think that there is a return there is going to continue

to be value in, um, something that.

Isn't trying to get you, isn't trying to manipulate you, is actually

trying to inform and entertain you that has some craft put into it.

Um, to me the, the real sort of survivor over of the internet and has barreled

through and will come back out on top again if it's not already on top, is hbo.

But the power of their content and their, their, their willingness to kind of

stick to quality, um, has allowed them.

With frankly, I, I don't know the budgets, but I have to imagine they

spend a lot less than Netflix or some of the other big players has allowed

them to just barrel through and still get you to pay 10 bucks a month.

And the reason for that isn't because of 18 second videos.

It is because some of their series take a year and a half

before the next season shows up.

They just are absolutely committed to the creative, uh, side of things.

Like I think people are overwhelmed.

They're looking.

For, I think curation is gonna, is gonna make a big comeback

because people need help.

It doesn't help me when Spotify pums me with 30,000 songs

telling me, check out this stuff.

It doesn't help

Let me throw this back to

Less is more.

That's my prediction in tech for 2023.

Let me throw this back to you.

Culture is not a database.

It looks like a database to a database.

bless his heart or her heart.

Yes.

The, so when people interact with culture, they don't just want to get search engine

And so they go to forums and they talk on the forums and they go other places.

And then what happens is giant technology companies were like, no,

we now you need to do that over here because, we'll, we'll make it easier and

That's right.

And, but they weren't able to deliver the value, they weren't

able to deliver the community and the.

That's because they sought.

That's Right.

And, and they needed scale because it was ad driven and nothing

against ad driven, but you needed scale.

Right.

But you can't have those communities.

And so as people grow in, in their lives, they get into things.

Yes.

And so suddenly they need those communities.

You're into headphones.

I'm in modular synthesizers, two nerdy, middle-aged dad kind of things to be into.

Right?

And we're not gonna, I'm not gonna find what I need on Google or Facebook.

Some of it's on Facebook.

Some of it's, sure, this groups, but it's one of many places

that's not the community.

You're seeking out less noise and you're seeking out

more, um, signal and better signal.

And, and I think pe more and more people are realizing they need it.

People are exhausted.

I even young people, I think are finding it.

It's, it's fun to kind of do that and just scroll mindlessly for a bit,

but I think you're still seeking.

It's gonna become cool to show off the book you just read again.

All right.

That's a hell of a accomplishment if, uh, we get there in 2023, but, all right.

I, I don't know if it's a 2023 thing.

I, this is my prediction for the next four years.

We don't have to do this podcast next year.

Okay,

That's nice.

I'm gonna put that on the

calendar.

tell me what, you give me a prediction

I'll take politics.

Oh boy.

It's a pretty simple one.

I think we're entering a new phase of gridlock in America.

Oh, . That's not much of a prediction, but, okay.

Yeah,

no, I mean, you know, the Republicans have the house, but

they don't have a huge majority.

The the speaker is now fighting with it.

They're kind of fighting amongst themselves.

The Democrats have new leadership, and Biden is this sort of like

calm, stable, administrator.

And so for whatever people might think of him.

And so, uh, the drama is way down and people are gonna try to cook

up new drama, but there is no engine like Trump and I just don't

think that Trump can get back in.

He did his digital playing cards and he like, is kind of

announced his, his new campaign.

Maybe he can, he went it first, but he's looking kind of old, tired.

So I

do you think people are tired?

Yes.

Okay.

So you think part of this isn't just politicians.

Chilling out.

It's just the game.

And I think this goes back to my point around tech is you can only

play that trick so many times.

And I think people are tired.

Humans don't care, right?

They wanna just, they wanna buy a TV at a store and, and

it should be a really good tv.

And then they wanna watch the shows.

Most humans.

I used to have the fantasy as a web guy that everybody wanted to create

content and do things and so on.

There's very, like everybody, you know, the, the tech industry in particular

like has a fantasy that everybody wants to be a programmer and they all want to

create content and most people don't.

Do you think

most people, you said something to me once you're like,

most people just want a piece of fish.

a good piece of fish ball is a wonderful

98% of the world just would like a good piece of

fish, . That's fair.

Let, so let me ask you this.

I mean, your prediction are, are you saying this is a positive turn?

I could go for some cob.

I think many people could.

Yeah.

I think collectively as a species, we, we just really would like,

like I I, well, one thing the last five, six years has shown me as a

manager, as a business owner, as a

father,

as a father, as a person who's connected to politics and relatively

progressive, you can't change another human being's It just doesn't work.

They, they believe what they believe.

Sometimes you can bunch things a little this way and that way you

really can't change their mind.

Yeah.

And so this idea of the last seven, eight years, it's just like we,

we've been trying to like achieve some kind of societal change through

Twitter and activism and it's like everybody's a little fried.

Yeah.

I agree with that.

And, and I'm okay with this prediction for this year.

I think everybody could use it.

I think, um, I think people have come to see the tricks better.

I believe that,

well, it's dc there's, there's always an immune system where

you start to like go like, well, they're manipulating me, and then

they find new ways to manipulate you.

It is what it is.

I forget how the calendar works.

Last question for you.

So this year I think people announced their candidacy right?

To like for,

to run

Yeah.

Trope was early.

the, are the primaries.

This year, I, I don't know what the calendar

No, you start.

I don't remember.

I don't think so.

I think I like,

But people do get out there, they start

to, oh yeah.

They do those debates with 700 Republicans.

Do

you think it'll be less divisive?

No.

I think it's like anything you, you, you think it'll calm down.

As you get closer and closer to the big events, it gets more and more bananas.

Do you think it'll be less bananas than the last couple of cycles

because we had this unusual presence.

Right.

Imagine like, I mean, it's literally, you know, Marjorie Taylor

Green's brain on a TV celebrity.

Like it was unprecedented.

Yeah.

Do you, so you think it'll be less mud slinging at the debates and things like

that?

Uh, it'll always be grizzly and horrible.

You just won't have this like, radiating set of, of situations that just make

everybody miserable all the time.

It'll just be awful.

You'll, you'll look at your team baseline.

Yeah.

You'll look at your team and you'll go like, oh, I can't believe

that's who I have to vote for.

And then you'll look at the other team and you'll go, they'll kill everyone I love.

Yeah, right.

And so, and you'll make your decision and like, we'll, I will, I'm sure

by the end of the year find lots of things to be horrified about.

But, but at least for right now, it just feels like, you know, just

business as usual for a minute.

So I just like less drama.

It's a prediction, not a goal.

a little connected to mine, my prediction in tech, which

is just everyone calming down and seeking out better experiences rather

than more divisive, ugly experiences.

All right.

I got one more for you.

Let's keep this a short podcast.

Getting back into the, into the new year.

Ooh, one more.

The economy.

What do you think's gonna happen with Muddy?

Um,

I, this is, this is above my pay.

Frankly, um, I, I do.

We're

employ.

We're self-employed.

Um, I, I'll say this, I, I think, I think the world is gonna hold onto its

money a lot more as to, I don't know, the cr I, I hate it when people say,

I think we're gonna get a recession.

I don't even know, I don't know what the criteria is.

I don't know if there is a standards body that decides that we are in one.

I

It's also the last year has been like recession.

No.

Yeah.

Like there's like a, like a, a magic eight ball.

It's

It's just a good.

I, I do think, look, the market's lost.

They shed, you know, X percent in, in tech, I think it's

over 50% of their value.

Some companies are down 80, 90%.

What does that mean?

That means like the buffet, the lunch buffet is just not gonna

be as exciting as it usually is.

What does that mean?

That means the caterer doesn't get as much revenue.

What does that mean?

That means the farmers don't get to sell as much goods or whatever.

So I do think people are gonna hold on to their money.

Uh, this year Does that?

I'm not, I'm no economist and so I, I'm not gonna speculate as to

how that turns into a recession.

I think that's what that means.

Um, is that something that you end up in the doldrums for a few months?

My sense is, I hope there are some things that happen in the world that

Take a turn for the better they get, gets, gets, gives everyone a chance to

exhale and maybe loosen up and have a little more confidence in the future.

I think right now we're sort of, we're still getting waking up from the, the

pandemic, the u The war in Ukraine is ongoing, so the idea of betting

on like making five year bets right now just doesn't feel really good

if we, if we look at the actual chaos of the world, right?

Like it's a less disastrous winter from an energy policy point

of view because climate change

Yeah.

got like, it's, it's nice out in New York City right now.

Right?

And same in Europe.

So, so the whole, some of the Ukraine like aftershocks are a little less profound.

I'll go ahead and make a prediction though, cuz

that sounded like a cop out.

I, I do think people are gonna hold onto their money more, but I think people,

I think people this upcoming year will start to open up again and I don't think

we're in for like a three year slog is my

It doesn't look that way.

Right?

Like what something would have, there'd have to be something

a little more precipitating.

And I think also there were the days where something like the tech

crash could really affect the rest of the economy in a specific way.

But lots of value to value having God bless Tesla voters.

Uh, but uh, it just doesn't, like there's still a big old economy humming.

And we're, we are in the United States, so we are talking about

just this juggernaut of an economy, right.

Like there's

we just roll around in good fortune

Yeah.

Can I, can I throw a wish in?

I love wishes.

love to see, uh, I'm Lebanese Lebanon has had one heck of

a rough run for the last four years.

Its economy is utterly cratered.

It's politically paralyzed.

It's in a bad spot on the earth, just generally.

It's just a tricky place.

I hope we get some good news of some sort out of there.

I don't know what it could be.

I can't hear.

Anyone tell me anymore about how resilient the Lebanese are?

Everyone, Lebanese people are tired of hearing that.

Uh, hopefully we get some tangible good news in 2023.

that's it is unfortunately completely true cuz

we work a lots of Lebanese people

people.

Yeah.

resilient.

Resilient Lebanese

Well, the irony, well, it's not even irony.

The reality is they are, they're extremely resilient.

But still some good news would be nice.

I'll tell you what though.

When you know a lot of Lebanese people and you kind of get in there,

it, it's, it's a little, it's a plate of scrambled eggs in there.

It's a mess, man.

Like, no, nobody goes through those experiences without

facing some consequence,

but I me tell you, they are delicious scrambled

eggs.

Oh, they're really good.

They're, it's got that little sausage.

Uh, we wish everyone a, everyone is gonna have their own 2023.

Paul, we just gave macro predictions about the world.

Uh, very kind.

We're expecting the world to take a kinder turn.

Paul, you and I are being really optimistic about , about humanity.

don't know why, like I think we just had a nice holiday,

so now we're like, oh, you know me, we're, everything's very like a little

recession, but nothing too bad, right?

maybe we do this again in a

Oh, can you imagine at six months from now when we check in,

it's someone out there and listening.

You don't have to send us an email.

Just keep an eye.

In six months from now, you can get in touch and be like, you guys are idiot.

Yes.

But keep in touch.

Let us know what you think.

Tell us your predictions, and if you've got any questions,

reach out@hellozford.com.

And if you're so inclined, please give us those five stars and share the spread

the word about the Zian Ford Advisors

advisors.

All right.

Let's go.

Good luck this year, Paul.

Good luck, Richard.

Bye-bye.