JT Taylor, chief political strategist at Hedgeye Potomac Research, breaks down various House and Senate races and the key issues that may ultimately decide the presidency.

You know, Julie, you talk about time flying. It’s hard to believe that it’s been several months since we last talked to JT Taylor about the 2024 election cycle. And if you think about it, remember when we finished that last podcast with JT, we kind of joked about it might have been June or July, but we kind of joked and said, you know, couple of months left to the election, what could possibly happen? And we’ve had a candidate replacement two assassination attempts at debate, a couple of conventions, you name it. And I think it was a great time to have to ask JT to come back on our podcast just to keep us up to date with kind of what he’s seeing right now in Washington.

Absolutely. In fact, I think we had a tough time keeping our conversation to 40 minutes. But as usual, he did such a fabulous job of updating us and most importantly, I think, providing some great actionable talking points to use with clients. So I’m so excited for our audience to hear JT’s updates today.

Yeah, and especially as you listen to his comments, I know there’s a section in our conversation where we talk about, so what do I say to clients that are kind of very anxious about the upcoming election, which everybody seems to be? I think, again, keeping that perspective and listening to JT’s perspective is really, really helpful in trying to kind of lower the temperature before people make decisions economically or financially that may actually not be in their best interest based on what their emotions are telling them. So, Julie, why don’t you tell our audience a little bit about JT?

JT Taylor serves as chief political strategist and macro policy sector head at AGI Potomac Research. Prior to joining Potomac Research Group, he ran Polaris Research, the US Public Markets division of the Holding Him group based in United Kingdom. JT has worked extensively in both government and business in Washington DC, with experience that spans both the legislative and executive branches as well as in D.C. based consulting firm that he founded with Secretary Jack Kemp in 2002.

So please join Julian Eye on our most recent update from JT Taylor on this year’s election cycle. Hi, I’m John.

And I’m Julie.

We’re the hosts of the Hartford Funds Human Centric Investing Podcast.

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Let’s go.

JT Welcome to the Human Centric Investing podcast. We’re so excited to have you back with us today.

Julie It’s great to be with you guys. I love this. I love doing this with you guys.

So, JT, it’s been several months since we last had you on the podcast and I think when we left off our last podcast, we kind of said, Hey, there’s only what, 4 or 5 months left till November? What can happen in between? And I think the answer is pretty much everything. So, JT, we’re now on the other side of, you know, the Democrat nominee replacement with Kamala Harris. We’re on the other side of the what appears to be or what is now the only televised debate. And on today’s podcast, what I’m hoping we can do is kind of talk about where we’re at in terms of the presidential race, where we’re at in terms of the races for the houses of Congress and where we go from here. And Julian, I also want to wrap it with what does this mean for some policy measures that are currently in effect or maybe new policies that may come about? So just to give our listeners kind of an agenda, but let’s start where all the attention is right now on the presidential race. JT When we last talked, it was a coin flip. Has anything changed?

Yeah, a little bit. But I just want to make sure you said a few months ago, a few years of for a few years to me, to be honest with.

You, for sure.

Yeah. So it has changed significantly since we last spoke. And I kind of go back to some old notes and I think when people asked me both maybe on this podcast earlier and throughout the summer in various speeches and lectures I gave, if I had to pick a winner, who did? Who, who would it be? And I think I probably aired. I mean, I said it’s a toss up, but it probably aired on the side of Biden. I, I completely throw that out the window right now. And I probably would have been wrong. Looking at the numbers progressing since since the debate on June 27th, the assassination attempt, the conventions, another assassination attempt. I mean, I could go on, but we only have a short amount of time. So the race has changed significantly. I don’t need to tell you that. And I believe that what’s happened since June, over the course of the summer, over the course of of of the conventions, is that Kamala Harris, Vice President Harris has made up a lot of lost ground. I still believe at this time that even though polling is probably showing her ahead and I look at I don’t look at any of this. The problem with this country right now is that every single day we’re flooded with polls. And I know people on both sides, they see their candidate up or down and their heart starts to flutter like, God, is the world. The world is coming to an end. Yeah, look at the average of polls and we’ll get to that in a second. Over a span of time. And I go back to a Labor Day through today, but back back to the race. And so I do think that she’s catching up to Trump despite the fact that she leads in the polls. I think that he had a significant advantage going in. And all the numbers are moving in our direction. Let’s just be honest. I’m not partizan about this, but every single number for the most part is moving in her direction and she’s hitting all the right notes and he’s not. Frankly, that’s just I just be blunt right now. He is kind of off message and really needs to get back into the sort of I call it the pre-convention mode, where he was truly, truly disciplined. His focus is Trump could possibly be and putting the spotlight again up until June 20th 7th or July 21st. On Biden. So is she still in? She’s gaining ground. All the national polls are showing her ahead. But we know, John and Julie, that we need to go back to the the five, six now, seven battleground states. And they by all the polls, bounce around. They’ll have him up one day, her up another day. Again, by and large, the average of polls shows her up, but everything was within the margin of error right now John.

So maybe let’s break this down because there’s so much to cover between now and Election Day. What needs to go right for Trump to win? And then maybe we could do the same for Harris. But let’s start with Trump. In your opinion, in the time that we have between now and that Election Day?

Well, let’s go back to just what I said a second ago. I mean, he actually needs to get back to be being a disciplined candidate. I mean, it is tough for him, we know. But we saw that over the past six months, again, up to the debates. I mean, think about it for one second. I think Don and I talked about this off line, but after the debate with Biden, he pretty much he Trump, I don’t want to say went into hiding because a guy will never go into hiding, but he just kept silent for the whole following week. It’s the Sun Tzu art of war. Like when your enemy is spiraling downhill. Right. Don’t get in the way when your enemy is screwing up, frankly. Don’t get in the way. And Trump, listen to you has a very by the way, he has a very disciplined team, a very cutthroat, cutthroat, team focused team. These guys are probably the best in the industry. There’s a little internal squabbling going on right now. But go back to listening to your top two advisors who got you to the dance, who got you through the primaries and the debates successfully to get back again, get back on message. Be disciplined. Try to put the focus back on Paris and the economy and immigration as much as you possibly can. I know you’re going to talk to some of the Republicans who think the cats and dogs way of talking about immigration is the way to go, frankly. You don’t need to convince Republicans to go your way anymore, Julie. You need to convince undecided voters, independents to go your way. That’s not the way to talk about immigration. Again, just being blunt here. When you’re looking at that that audience. So if you’re going to talk about immigration, you start talking about stats, start talking about the last three and a half years and why it took so long for the administration to get to the point where they are now. And then lastly, on the Trump side, I just saw some pretty staggering numbers, fundraising numbers for August. I mean, they the Harris camp has blown the Trump camp out of the water on the fundraising side. So I would say, you know, when you talk about both candidates continue to raise money. I believe Harris over the weekend in one night raised 27 million on Wall Street in an overnight tally. So there you need money in these final 42 or 40 or 41 days. So continue to raise money. Get the spotlight back on her, get the spotlight back on Biden-Harris and the economic message. When you look at what pollsters are saying and all these results of all these polls, voters still care about the economy, inflation, housing, all wrapped in one, I’d say. And then, of course, immigration. I mean, we could get to some of the social issues later.

So, JT, when it comes to come on Harris, what does she need to do right? Or is it just staying out of Trump’s way if he can’t stay on message? Is that are there things that she really needs to focus on?

I’d say exactly what the Trump people were doing pre debate June 27th. And the Trump people like to keep the spotlight on Biden, keep the spotlight on Biden that whole time even after the debate, of course. Now, I think you’re probably right to ask people want to keep the spotlight on Trump and some of his more undisciplined message, but she needs to continue to move to the center as she has been over the last couple of weeks. She needs more specifics. I mean, I’ll be honest, since I was a baby, I thought the numbers would move more in her direction. And they have to remember, John has heard me talk about this ad nauseum. Every single incremental move in this race counts. And so there has been incremental move in her direction. And added up. I’d rather be in her position with this incremental moves with these incremental moves over the past couple of weeks. But when you look at the polling, as this undecided group has gotten a little smaller, they still want to know more about her. So that’s one of my biggest takeaways in just sort of dissecting dozens and dozens of polls of undecided voters. Some have moved her way. Fewer have moved Trump’s way. But more importantly, the remainders still are saying they’re not going to vote for Trump. They’re still keeping an open mind about Harris. And that’s, I think, what she has to do. She really has to define herself before beginning. The Trump people are trying desperately to get there, but they veer off message but continue to define herself before they define you. And here’s an interesting keep your favorables up. I mean, Joe, you cited them in her Favorables have been really good and rising. We’ve not seen anything. Like this in decades from a candidate. And then one interesting thing I think she needs to do is. You can see that in the seven battleground, 6 or 7 battleground states. You go to the big rallies in Philadelphia, in Madison, Wisconsin, in Phenix. What’s really fascinating is that and again, this is not this might sound a little pro Harris, but it’s not is that she’s going into pockets of Pennsylvania and Georgia, red pockets instead of going to the blue pockets the cities she’s getting and going into some more rural areas trying to make sure she shores up or or slims down Trump’s margin in some of those red areas. And I think that’s I think that’s pretty savvy on their end.

JT In your opinion, for each candidate, is there a particular state that they need to win in order to get them over the goal line come Election Day?

Yeah, I mean, just talking today for the first few, few, few days of fall, I think the absolute win for Harris is Pennsylvania and bar none. And I think interestingly enough, given the news over the past couple of days, I think Trump needs to shore up North Carolina or his path becomes really much more difficult to to 70. Just a short answer. But yeah, I would not I probably before this weekend, I wouldn’t have said that. But you can see we’ve talked about it. I know John has asked me about single party split ticket voting. You can see less and less of that in the American electorate over the last couple of years. But in North Carolina, that’s going to be a really interesting race given the unpopularity of the of the Republican who’s running right now and the controversies around him. You know, there are a lot of folks saying that it’s not going to affect Trump, but it could affect morale. It could affect turnout. And this is more than in every election. We say this, but this is going to be a turnout election.

So, JT, it sounds like it’s still a flip of a coin. It sounds like there are seven states that are going to decide it and they seem to be all flips of the coin. So a major flip of a coin. But given that that we nobody really knows what’s going to happen there, despite all the TV that we’re going to be watching over the next two months. Let’s talk about the Houses of Congress for a moment. So to set the stage, when we last talked, I think you were you thought it was highly likely that the Republicans would retake the Senate. And I don’t know if you had as much conviction, but said it was likely that the Democrats would retake the House. Where do things stand with JT Taylor today versus a couple of months ago, or are we still in that kind of projection?

We are more confident that the Republicans will take the Senate right now as it stands. The Republicans will pick up West Virginia unless there’s some miracle happens in West Virginia between now and November 5th. So all they have to do is pick up one more seat and there are 6 or 7 states in play. But the two we’re focused on, just like we talked about earlier in the summer, John, are Montana in Ohio, in Montana is looking better for Republicans right now. Let’s just be honest. And so, again, they have to pick up one seat. They pick up Montana. They have the majority. There are also other opportunities to turn Ohio blue to red. And so you have a Democratic Senator, Sherrod Brown, running in Ohio. It’s a very red state right now. So he’s got an uphill battle, but he has to hold that and he can hold it. But again, a turnout election, anything can happen there. But so those are two troublesome, troublesome spots for Democrats. The Democrats also have to hold on to Wisconsin. They have to hold on to Pennsylvania, Michigan and in Arizona. So Arizona is probably the likely the Democrats will likely hold on to Arizona and Nevada, but have to hold on to those as well as Montana and Ohio. So there’s there’s a pretty, pretty good conviction that they’ll retake the Senate. Not just sure thing, but on the House side, a little less conviction that the Democrats will take it. I spent time over the weekend with members of both parties as a good Julie about this before we started today. And both are optimistic that they’re going to the Republicans. If they’re going to keep the House Democrats, they’re going to retake the House. And it is as razor thin as it will ever be. I mean, this is we’re talking 25 to 30 states out of 435 I’m sorry, congressional districts of the 435. And those battles are going to be in California, New York, New Jersey, Oregon, all blue states, ironically, where there’s really no real presidential campaign going on right now. Trump or is not going to spend money in California on advertising. It might try in New York because he thinks he can win New York, which is kind of funny. But but so these are going to be really it’s going to hand in hand combat in those states. I believe the Democrats have a slight edge given Harris’s entry into the race. She’s injected new enthusiasm countrywide. And then secondly, the money battle. I think the Democrats are leading on the money front. And third, you probably have a few more Republicans running in. Blue districts, then Democrats running in red districts. From from a House standpoint. All the Democrats need to do is pick up four and they take the House. But let me just point out, because I know we’re going to be talking about policy in a second, that no matter who wins, we are still going to have the slimmest margins we’ve ever seen likely in both houses unless I don’t see a blowout election one way or another at this juncture. But these are going to be really slim margins in Congress. The House in particular could be a 4 or 5 seat majority for the Republicans, could be a four, four, 4 or 5 seat majority for the Democrats. Either way. You have the fringes to deal with, which makes governing and legislating much more difficult.

So I think JT, earlier this year maybe, you know, time flies, as you mentioned, but we saw that even with a Republican majority in the House, the Republicans had a very difficult time managing their own party. So I think, you know, we talk about the prospect of divided government and generally markets favored divided government because the markets know that not much new is going to happen. But I guess the question is, will anything happen regardless? I guess if there’s a sweep, Republican or Democrat. There’s probably more anxiety on on the part of the market. But this is kind of a different makeup, right, in that now we have almost we may have divided divided government where not only do we not like the people across the aisle, but we don’t like one another. Is that is that really what we have now in Washington from your point of view? It seems like it from our point of view.

Yeah. Each of the past five presidents have entered office with his party holding a majority in House and the Senate. And so now there’s a chance that you have. A Harris with a Republican Senate and Democratic House or Trump with a Republican Senate and a Democratic House. And so the sort of legislating back to the legislating graveyard, you think about any major priority. I mean, Biden passed. I mean, Trump got the 2017 tax cuts in his first two years. And other other other major pieces of legislation. Biden got the IRA, got infrastructure chips, all these things done in his first two years. One of these two could enter office with divided government and their priorities, their legislative priorities handcuffed. Which is pretty much a stalemate, which, you know, if you’re a Trump voter and you’re looking at the markets there, then you’re going to well, it’s going to be a more deregulatory environment. So there are some good tailwinds in that type of environment. And I think I think Harris is still evolving with regard to regulatory policy. But let’s just be honest. The last couple of the last three and a half years have been pretty regulatory from a from a Democratic standpoint, from a Biden standpoint. I think Harris will continue much of the same, but I think she’s going to want to put her own imprimatur on the agencies early on and might like sort of devolve from where the Biden administration is.

So if it were a horse race now is betting the trifecta. I’d take the favorite right now would be the Republican Senate, the Democrat House. And you pick either the two horses that are going to win the race, which makes it pretty difficult, which is why we’d have trouble predicting the outcome of this race. But I do think and leading into our discussion about policy, I think, you know, obviously a Trump victory with a Republican Senate kind of opens the door on Supreme Court nominations. Right. A Harris presidency with a Democratic House probably leads to more creative legislative proposals. Not that they would clear the Senate, but let’s let’s talk about some of the policy provisions. And, Julie, what’s on your mind in terms of what do you think advisors out there are most curious about and are talking to you about day to day?

Well, you know, I’m thinking about, you know, obviously we’re talking about a lot of the, you know, the tax cuts or the taxation ideas and policies, but we’re not talking about the national debt. Right. I don’t think either candidate is. And I’m curious what your thoughts are, JD or JT on that. We’ve got we’ve got somebody John’s on the call. Anyway, I would be very curious about what you think going forward. Where are we on the national debt? Why isn’t that being discussed as much by either candidate?

Yeah, that’s a big problem. And I think that your economists, our economists will tell us in the coming years and probably as soon as 2025 is going to start being a drag on GDP and the economy. When you think of this year and John, correct me if I’m wrong. Interest on the debt is approaching or surpassing $1 trillion, which is more than our defense budget. Now, if that’s not a drag on GDP and the economy, I don’t know what is. And yet nobody here wants to address it. Neither candidate for the White House wants to address it. In fact, both both policies and this is what we call, I think, the freebie follies here in D.C. that both candidates are starting to toss out yet again. Well, we’ll have this debate. I’m happy that the candidates are going to have a debate on the child care tax credit, on tax, on tips and tax, on on Social Security benefits for for certain segments. But they’re just starting to throw out the $50,000 tax credit for four small business startups. The 24 isn’t the $25,000 first time homebuyer tax credit. And on and on and on. But no means of paying for it. They’re going to talk about tariffs on one end and taxing the rich on the other end. But this is let’s just be honest. That’s not the approach to tackling the national debt. When the drivers of the dead are generally entitlements, entitlement spending. And I believe in a more convinced now than ever before that it’s going to take a real crisis in the next five years for politicians in Washington to wake up to the the to the to the crisis that’s taking place today and that nobody wants to address.

And I think it’s it’s interesting JT and that you know, you and I spoke to Mike Banderas at Wellington Management a couple of weeks ago and and throughout my recollection, these presidential cycles, whenever the debt came up, you know, people knew it was an issue, but it seemed like something we wouldn’t have to deal with or you would hear will grow our way out of it and so on and so forth. It seems like we’re getting closer to that edge with some of the numbers that you’ve talked about. How it gets solved is anybody’s guess. But what do you think happens, let’s say? So the Trump the tax cuts are in place right now. They’re going to run through 2025, roughly till December. Let’s say. Let’s say either give me your projection on both sides. Harris is elected president. What kind of what do you think she would try to take? Is there a middle ground on these tax cuts? Will we ever get there? If Trump is elected, is it a is it an absolute, you know, kind of free pass on everything will remain in effect? Or what do you think’s most likely to happen as we approach December of 2025?

Let me maybe take this approach. Let’s look at the 10% chance that there’s a Democratic sweep, Right? A republic. A Democratic House, Senate and White House. I believe they would let the tax cuts expire and then they would look at individual rates first, making sure that those making for 450 jointly work jointly, their taxes are not raised. I think you probably see a little nuance around cap gains from the Democrats. There’s going to be talk and hair on fire about getting corporate back up to, what was it, 35 or 38?

John Yeah, I think so.

But I think Harris has already come out talking about a lower number in the high 20s. So I don’t think that she would do anything all that dramatic on corporate rates and find some negotiating ground on on that on that front. So so let them expire and then come up with some of these just big chunks and negotiate with with Republicans and to to to pass. I don’t think a billionaires tax cut passes because of the slim margins. But it’s a different dynamic. Letting them expire and then maybe starting from the ground up. If the Democrats sweep. If the Republicans sweep. I don’t think they get 100% renewal. I think it’s really going to be hard for them to go in and say, hey, we’re just going to renew the 2017 tax cuts at 4.5 trillion. I think that probably 70 to 80% of them get renewed or become permanent. Then I do. And there’s talk of getting corporate down to either 15 or 18 by the by the the the Trump campaign. I think that’s going to be tough. I think that it would remain at 21 and probably an outlier in Washington in saying that. But I think corporate rates will remain at 21 under a Republican sweep because you do have some Republicans that are open to a higher rate, but they’re not it’s not going to pass. And I think they would be opposed to lowering it because you’ve got to have pay force at the end of the day. And I think that all pretty much everything else will remain the same except for small child care tax credit. I don’t know that they tweak cap gains at all. They might try, But remember, it’s probably going to be a very slim house and they’re going to really need to hold everyone together in the House to do that. Divided government. I mean, good news, bad news there. Currently, the House and the Senate, Republicans and Democrats in separate breakouts on the tax writing committees are having little strategy sessions about what their what their priorities are going to be from the 2017 tcja that they would like to see renewed. And so they’re starting to identify what their priorities are. One two, they’re starting to look at some common ground with Democrats. What are the starting point? And I don’t know any of these details just yet. I apologize. And then three, you know, what’s it going to take to do it? But what’s the vote count going to take to get them passed in a divided Congress? And again, same thing. I do think that the race for for the 458 remain the same. I do think you’re going to see something something higher for the difference for the higher tax brackets. I don’t think they’re going to tweak much on cap gains. And I think you’d probably end up somewhere between 25, 21 and 28 on corporate rates. That’s just a wild guess right now. And I think any anyone who tells you they know, by the way, is lying to you. But but, but but, you know, I’m mistaken. While they have 4 or 5 more days here. They’re still meeting behind closed doors. They’re still trying to figure it out. And I think they’re going to enter 2025 prepared. Doesn’t mean that they’re going to pass it, but at least they’re prepared. They know it’s coming. And they’ll have that debate instead of sort of starting from scratch. They’ll have some some areas to start with.

You mentioned the word common ground a minute ago, which we don’t hear very often. Are there any policies that Trump and Harris truly agree on from your perspective?

I mentioned it a couple of times today. The child care tax credit, something I think Vance has talked about and Harris has talked about a lot different levels, slightly different levels. So I think that’s it. I think both both both parties are going to have to follow through on it. You just said that they’re going to be forced to. There’s you know, the you saw Harris come around on that. No tax on tips. You know, she’s she’s going to come out with a new economic plan this week. He’s coming out with some new economic ideas. I think they’re going to steal from each other. So I can’t wait for that because then at least we’ll see some common ground from both of them on the Hill. And both candidates, I think, are going to be tough on China. I think you’re seeing that manifested in legislation coming out of this Congress and tick tock on a couple of other companies and a couple of other areas. I think you’ll see a continuation continuation of China legislation in 2025 and beyond. And cooperation between the parties. And then some issues on big tech and AI, they seem to be coming around. There’s common ground there. But that is there are there are others. Defense, again, very, very nuanced. But defense spending, to varying degrees is where I think the parties have come. The bulk of the parties, the majority of each party has has come together. I’m not talking about the fringes. You know, the far right side for Taylor defense spending. The far left is the guns and butter debate that we’ve talked about before. But I think that the the the center, the more pragmatic center in both parties.

So, JT, I want to double back and ask you about something you just mentioned and you said the words capital gains and that you thought that that they might remain pretty well unchanged perhaps. But we know earlier in the campaign, Kamala Harris came out with a headline about taxing unrealized capital gains. Right. And for financial professionals, we start scratching our head on how in the world would that work? Do I get to declare undeclared capital losses at the same time? But I don’t know that there were any specifics around it. JT In your mind, was that a headline grabber to say we’re going to tax the rich? Has there been any further development on that front?

Not that I’ve seen, But I did see something where we’re talking about people making a hundred million and more. So, John, it’s probably falls in your your income category right now. You have to work. Good luck.

Good luck with that. That maybe you know something?

I don’t think we are going to get there next. But I do believe 100% it is it is a tax, the rich thing. And I do think it is 100 million and more. And I haven’t seen much more. We may see, as I said, more economic proposals from Harris this week. So that’s one I’m going to be certainly watching out for because it’s come up multiple, multiple times.

Makes sense.

JT, I might move back out to sort of where we began the conversation just because I’m curious from your perspective. Do the presidential debates really move the needle in terms of the voter difference in the end? And does it does it just make a difference when people commit the time and and maybe this is just a personal question because my husband and I have been sitting down and carving out the time. And I think because we’ve been attempting to truly educate ourselves and and trying to make the right decision and really be a part of, I guess, maybe this election season more so than ever. And I don’t know, share with us your perspective, please.

I mean, guys, this is going to sound like a typical D.C., Washington, D.C. answer. You’re going to take both sides. But but by and large, I do think they move the needle. I think you saw that incrementally with the with the Harris Trump debate there. I think a lot of folks are really curious to where she stands on the issues and she has changed her views on on some policies. And I think Americans want to know what these policies are, why she changed, where she wants to take the country. They really haven’t heard much from her in the last three and a half years. And I do believe that’s a fault on the Biden administration’s pull apart. So in looking at this past debate, she has moved the needle a little bit. And again, as I said at the beginning of the segment, any incremental move in a game of inches is going to make a difference. So, yes, I think they matter just to counter or maybe contradict myself for one second. Trump won or Trump lost all three debates against Hillary Clinton. I mean, if you went back and just scored the Clinton Trump debates, she won all three and he wins the election. So, I mean, you know, you could take both sides. But I do think 67, John, 67 to 70 million people watching. They watch for a reason. I think they’re curious about both where they want to take the country. Want to see more from Harris. And the one biggest takeaway, as we know, in the summertime, we talked about undecideds around seven, eight, nine, ten, up as high highs, as high as 10%. I think we’re closer to realistically 5 to 6% in these battleground states. It’s come down. Mean I think some of them have moved in her direction. Some of them have moved in his direction more hers than his. Again, I go back to, gosh, I cannot believe this, but I go back to the high ceiling, low floor concept. Trump has the high floor that motivated base and the low ceiling. He cannot move beyond 45 to 4748% in these polls. Biden and now Harris had a low floor. They weren’t at least Biden at one point and a high ceiling. Harris has brought that floor of way up, brought Democrats back into line, maybe some independents. She’s still in my opinion, she still has room to grow. That’s what I would be worried about if I were the Trump folks. I would be calling like Harris’s for a second debate based on that. If she’s not going to get a second debate, then I’d say that she really does have to do more. I’m not I’m an outlier again, and I don’t believe the national media clamoring to do these sit down interviews. Like what? You know, Because what do they do? It’s a game of gotcha. Whether it’s Trump or whether it’s Harris. They’re just going to try to find that one little. They’re going to ask you 55 minutes worth of questions, and they’re going to find that one little outlier out there and they’re going to ride home for the next three days based on that one slip up. I don’t believe that’s the right way to do it, but I can see why Harris is avoiding that. Having said that, I do think getting her into different forums to talk about her policies is only going to benefit her. And if you’re Trump, again, get back on message. I don’t think a second debate benefits him at all. I think unless unless he feels that he can be disciplined like he was in the second debate with Biden.

JT might How about the vice presidential debate? Does it doesn’t hold that anymore? I mean, generally, I think you and I have talked about this, they usually don’t matter for in all beings. But because this thing so tight, does this one matter at all?

And thankfully for my political reputation, having been part of the vice presidential debate team two decades ago, it doesn’t matter. But I do think this one takes generally. Traditionally they don’t. This one takes on a little more significance, especially if there’s not going to be another presidential. This might be the last time Americans other than to hear something about 60 Minutes trying to secure interviews with Harris and Trump. But this. Might be the last true glimpse of the ticket Americans see before November 5th. And we’re talking about October 1st. We’re talking about next week. Remember, people are voting right now, John. Julie, as we speak, early voting, mail in ballots, all these things are going out. So that is the last glimpse they will get and likely the very last glimpse, our idea of where the candidates stand. So they’re going to be the walls and vans go in there representing the top of their ticket. And and I think it could move the needle just a little bit. And you know what I think? I think that it takes on a little bit more significant than it has historically. Let’s leave it at that.

JT, I’m curious. You know, a lot oftentimes in our podcasts for the financial professionals listening, you know, we cover so much territory and you’ve given us so much to think about and so much important information. But oftentimes they’ll stop listening to this and they’ll have a client conversation five minutes later. And I think they always love it when you synthesize, you know, maybe into 3 or 4 bullet points. What would you share with that client that, you know, maybe has political fatigue or is nervous or frustrated about just the State of the Union? How would you interact with with a client? What would you say if you were a financial professional engaging with a client about where we are right now, given our current state.

Know our current polarized?

Yes. Yes.

I say choose economics over politics day in, day out. Mean just the basics here. And look at economic fundamentals and what what what those trends are. And secondly, when it comes to both of these candidates, we know they’re known entities. Right. We’re getting to know a little bit more about Harris, but she is tied to the Biden administration, so you can see directionally where she’s headed. I mean, she is moving to the center on a lot of different issues. She is surprising a lot of people in some of her when she talks about tax credits for small businesses. There are some interesting notions out there that that that that that she’s espoused. Trump, on the other hand, we’ve had four years of Trump and a lot of people go back to at least the first three years of that administration, economic growth and the performance of the economy. So they’re both known entities. The wild card is, you know, tariffs with Trump. Can he take that where he wants to take it, which could be damaging? And then there are again, we still have to hear more about where Harris wants to go on taxation and regulation and other policies. So but by and large, we kind of have a better sense we have a sense of who both of these candidates are, what they’re what they’re proposing for the country. We’ve seen it in a debate. We’ll see that in their veeps in a couple of days, and we’ll see that over the next 2 or 3 weeks. And then lastly, I guess my fail safe blankie, then we’ll call it is is I think there’s going to be a divided Congress. So go back to what I said about the legislative graveyard. Graveyard. If it’s a Trump presidency and a divided Congress, which is again, it’s something we haven’t seen in the last 4 or 5 presidents. That’s going to be a true, huge check on any major legislative initiative or policy initiative. You’ll be able to do a lot on the regulatory side. And he will, by the way, but he will be checked by a Democratic House if if that prediction comes true. If Harris is in the White House with a Republican Senate, same thing.

And Julie, I think and Jake, you’d agree with this as well. One thing I often talk to advisors about in terms of relating to clients is, one, these election periods tend to really shorten time horizons. People are focused on what’s going to happen next week, what’s going to happen next month. But when we put plans in place for people, we’re thinking about what’s going to happen over the next ten years, 15 years, so on, so forth. So try to stretch out that perspective. And the other thing is, I think acknowledge with clients that elections are emotional, right? If they engage so much because they’re very emotional events, do we like this person? Not like that person. They engage fear, right? What happens if the tax cuts go away? What happens if and we always in a fearful situation will think the worst. Right. We know that truly from all the work that we’ve done, you know, with the researchers that we’ve worked with over the years. So just acknowledging the fact that emotions are real, but emotions usually don’t make for great financial decisions. So try to cool the temperature. However, we can stretch out the perspective. I know at Hartford Funds we have tons of marketing pieces meant to educate people about elections of market cycles. And if you haven’t been to our Politics Resource Center at our Hartford Funds website, suggest that you go there. Well, JT, you know that one of the things that Julie and I enjoy the most is asking our guests these lightning round questions, these crazy questions to get our audience to kind of understand who our guest is a little bit more. But JT, you’ve been on before. We’ve already done the Lightning Round, so we’d like to ask a different question of you in this podcast, and that is, is there one book or one resource that. Helps give you perspective. You who are in this business of politics that you would recommend to someone like me who is interested in it, but really kind of interested in what makes it all work, what makes it tick, and kind of brings us back to maybe a steadier state. Any, any book that you’d recommend for prospective?

They did not prep me for this, so I’m going to hold it against you. But that’s an easy one for me, especially in a in a time when we’re so divided, when everything is so divisive and everything is sort of ugly. I go back to the Civil War, another period in our history that was just ugly. And the book is Team of Rivals by Doris Kearns Goodwin and How President Abraham Lincoln Assembled a cabinet and an Administration of former opponents and rivals. And I think just so telling then and how he tried to unite the nation back in the 1860s and something that’s desperately needed in our culture, in our country right now. So I would highly recommend it’s a great read. And and that that’s what this country needs at this point.

Thanks for that.

Well, JT, that’s excellent advice and I can’t wait to read that. Thank you so much for joining us yet again on the Human Centric Investing podcast and sharing your perspective. I think that’s such an important word to remember, especially during these times, and I’m confident that our listeners appreciate it as well. And we can’t wait for the next time that we are able to gather again.

Awesome. Thanks, John. Julie Thanks for having me again. I love this. I love doing this with you guys.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the guest who is not affiliated with Hartford Funds.