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SI135: WHY Trend Following is the Safest Investment Strategy ft. Moritz Seibert
11th April 2021 • Top Traders Unplugged • Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
00:00:00 01:17:19

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Moritz Seibert joins us today to discuss the little-known hedge fund Archegos, who recently blew up and cost billions of dollars for large institutions such as Credit Suisse and Nomura. We also discuss whether cracks are beginning to show in the stock market, the bull market in commodities, opportunities for investing in Chinese commodity markets, the risks of trading in emerging markets, how to trade cryptocurrency futures, and combining Trend Following strategies with none-correlated strategies in the same system.


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In this episode, we discuss:

  • Over-leveraged hedge funds showing little regard for risk
  • What stage of the bull market in stocks we might be in
  • The rise in commodity prices
  • Trading in the Chinese commodity markets
  • The possible risks of trading in emerging markets
  • Crypto futures and how they differ from more traditional futures markets
  • Trend Following combined with other investment strategies for a complete portfolio
  • call Gold a 'safe-haven' asset?


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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:19 - Macro recap from Niels

05:22 - Weekly review of returns

12:48 - Quant trading firms being ready to pounce on a possible upcoming commodity boom, especially in China

31:05 - The departure of some CTAs away from major exchanges, and the fund Archegos blowing up costing billions for major global banks

49:25 - Arbitraging bitcoin futures

01:00:45 - Q1; Jim: What are your thoughts on combining a Trend Following system with a mean-reversion system?

01:04:40 - Q2; John: Do you have any advice on which futures contract to trade and when to roll?

01:09:14 - Q3; Mark: If Trend Following philosophy assumes the future is unknown, why is normal to use historical price data?

01:14:45 - Performance recap

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