This week we are going to slow down a little. No technical talk! Instead I'm going to describe the biggest mistake I have made in cryptocurrency since 2014. It's easy to get swept up in a bull market but it's a good time right now to plan what you are going to do during a downturn.
I can be reached at mcintosh.fintech@gmail.com by email and on twitter at @McIntoshFinTech. Looking forward to hearing from you!
Hey, everybody. No one on this podcast is a financial advisor. And all information presented
Speaker:on this podcast is for informational purposes only. And now that we have the legal stuff out
Speaker:of the way, let's jump on in. Welcome to the generational wealth with cryptocurrency podcast.
Speaker:I'm your host McIntosh. And today we're going to be talking about my biggest mistake. I did want
Speaker:to kind of lighten things up. Well, talking about mistakes is maybe not light, but lighter on the
Speaker:technical side last week was a you know, we talked about a fair amount of technical things. And some
Speaker:of us may have gotten a little lost and all that. The good news is you don't have to know all those
Speaker:details, although it is helpful. But this week, I wanted to talk about the biggest mistake I've made
Speaker:in seven years in crypto. Now, I've made a lot of mistakes. I've made some of them repeatedly.
Speaker:But there is one that I think clearly stands out as my biggest mistake. I don't regret it.
Speaker:At this point, it's in the past and there's nothing I can do about it. And I choose to
Speaker:not live in regret. But I would like to share it with you in hopes that it will keep some of
Speaker:you from making this same mistake, because it's an easy thing to do. Now, to set the stage for this,
Speaker:you have to understand it's 2017. The bull market is in full roar. Things are off the charts very
Speaker:similar, by the way, to what's going on right now. A lot of FOMO fear of missing out, you'll hear that
Speaker:in the crypto world, so to speak. I was doing well in 2017. We hit an all time high. Bitcoin hit an
Speaker:all time high of $20,000. Ethereum was doing well as well. I don't remember exactly. I think I had
Speaker:most of my setup in Ethereum at that point. In early 2018, we reached the market high.
Speaker:And the only way I can describe it is I froze. I didn't. Well, I knew what to do.
Speaker:Actually, I was going to say I didn't know what to do. The reality is I probably did.
Speaker:And I just froze. I didn't. I thought the market was going to go back up. I don't know. I was
Speaker:indecisive, and the market tanked really quickly. There's reasons why I don't think that particular
Speaker:market profile will happen again, mostly involving institutional money, money coming in from large
Speaker:businesses, that kind of thing. We're always going to have bull markets and bear markets,
Speaker:just like we have in the stock market. But I think we will, as over time, the volatility
Speaker:in the cryptocurrency market will settle down. I think we had like a 90% drawdown in 2018
Speaker:during that bear market. It was really crazy. Well, I didn't sell at the top. I didn't sell
Speaker:I didn't sell halfway down. I held, which is okay. There's nothing wrong with holding a currency
Speaker:that you believe has long-term value. Certainly Ethereum and Bitcoin do. And even in 2018,
Speaker:four years ago now, in just a few months, they had established records,
Speaker:Bitcoin, especially at that time. And, you know, there was no reason to believe that they were
Speaker:going away. There's nothing wrong with that strategy. Now, as I was telling someone tonight,
Speaker:there's a lot of coins that we don't know that that's really the case. We'll probably talk about
Speaker:that on another episode. But if you believe that a coin is going to be around, it's okay not to
Speaker:sell at the top, like some people do. But what I didn't do, and this truly is my biggest mistake,
Speaker:and now I'm building a podcast around it, so to speak. As I have explained, I spent a whole
Speaker:episode doing so. I have a very simple strategy, because simple is easy. Simple is something that
Speaker:you can do on a consistent basis, and win if it's a winning strategy. And this is, what I didn't do
Speaker:is during the 2018, 2019, and most of 2020 time period, I didn't buy any more Bitcoin.
Speaker:Listen to what I'm vixen to say. I can summarize this episode in about however many words this is.
Speaker:Ten words, whatever. A bull market can make you money. A bear market can make you wealthy.
Speaker:What do you mean by that McIntosh? A bear market can make you wealthy? That's nonsense. Think about
Speaker:it. I'm going to pull up the charts. Just a second. And I'm going to give you some numbers,
Speaker:and not just off the top of my head, like I typically do, which. All right, I'm going to
Speaker:do, which. All right, so here's a Bitcoin chart. Obviously, you can't see this, but it is. I want
Speaker:to change the time scale. We're going to go back one month, monthly chart. That should be accurate
Speaker:enough. I have to scale everything so that I can see what I need to see. Here we go.
Speaker:Whoops. All right, so I've got a longer term chart pulled up here. I hope I can make this
Speaker:work. It's not the chart I normally use. Looks like I've got it though. So it looks like Bitcoin
Speaker:hit a high around mid 2017 and that high. I believe on some exchanges it basically touched $20,000.
Speaker:This chart isn't that accurate, but it's good enough. Now it went down to
Speaker:almost exactly a year later, actually, it looks like. 12-12 of 2018, roughly.
Speaker:This chart's showing like 3,300. I'm sure it was probably a bit lower
Speaker:at this scale. It's not that granular. How do you make money during a bear market?
Speaker:You keep buying. You dollar cost average. If I'm buying Bitcoin at $20,000,
Speaker:let's say I'm investing, let's say, let's just be crazy and say I'm investing $1,000 a month
Speaker:and it's $20,000. I can only buy 1 20th of a Bitcoin, right? Nothing wrong with that.
Speaker:But how much can I buy on December the 11th of 2018? I can buy roughly a third of a Bitcoin.
Speaker:That's a huge difference. And as time goes by and that asset, Bitcoin, becomes more valuable,
Speaker:that two-tenths, roughly, of a Bitcoin difference becomes bigger and bigger and bigger in value,
Speaker:right? Because we've seen Bitcoin over the last 12 years. It's grown in value steadily. Ups and
Speaker:downs, bear markets, bull markets, but it's growing in value. 10 years from now, that two-tenths of a
Speaker:Bitcoin may make a huge difference in your investment portfolio. That is why a bear market
Speaker:will make you wealthy. So, I actually look forward to the next bear market. Now, I do not think,
Speaker:I do not think that the next bear market will be anything like 2018 when we all sat around in the
Speaker:dumps and watched our investment go down. I can only speak for myself. I didn't believe
Speaker:at the time. I didn't have faith. I actually believed. I didn't have faith, though. I didn't
Speaker:know, really, to my core, where we were going. With all this money that I had put into the market
Speaker:and made some money and so on and so forth, was it just all gone? I mean, was I never going to recover
Speaker:it? And well, we've seen it come back. And maybe it drops 10% or something, but it's not going to
Speaker:drop 10% at the top. Maybe it drops 20%, which is probably more likely. I doubt it will only go down
Speaker:10%. It may go to 50%. What if Bitcoin hits $100,000 in January and then drops to 50?
Speaker:That's a huge drop. That's the best time to buy it. It's cheaper than it is right now.
Speaker:Yeah. I promote DCA simply because it's so simple. You just do the same thing. It's tomorrow,
Speaker:November the 1st, I should be buying some crypto. And that's my plan because I'm dollar cost
Speaker:averaging that investment. I don't know if this is the top. I don't know if this is the middle.
Speaker:I think in my opinion, we're somewhere maybe above the middle, but we're not at the top.
Speaker:I think we've got a couple more months left in this market, but I'm not going to worry about it.
Speaker:I'm just going to buy what I think I should buy with the money that I've got allocated for that.
Speaker:And I'm not going to worry about it. Now, if we do get a steep drop, now look,
Speaker:look, you're free to do whatever you want, of course. And if we get in a situation like in 2018
Speaker:where we've clearly reached a peak and it started to drop and it doesn't look like we're at the
Speaker:bottom yet, I may hold off for a month or two because the further down it goes, the more my
Speaker:money is worth. Essentially, my money's worth the same amount, but the more crypto I can buy.
Speaker:See, again, going back to that Bitcoin analogy, one-tenth versus three-tenths.
Speaker:It's a huge difference in the long run if Bitcoin hits 100,000, if Bitcoin hits 200,000.
Speaker:And it's the same thing with Ethereum or whatever. We buy assets because we believe in their long-term
Speaker:success. Sometimes that's true. Well, many times we hope it's true. Sometimes that maybe doesn't
Speaker:pan out. And of course, we can change our position if we need to. But we're buying these for the long
Speaker:term. Why would I not want to maximize that? So I welcome a bull market, a bear market.
Speaker:I love a bull market too, by the way. But I love a bear market because I know there's going to be
Speaker:a bull market on the other side of it. Crypto's not going away. We've got news week after week
Speaker:after week. MasterCard last week, right? Big announcement. Well, this week, this is going
Speaker:to be a short episode, but I just wanted to get this out there because I don't want people making
Speaker:the same mistake that I do. You should listen to this episode right now. Maybe go back to it
Speaker:when we do get in that bear market, just like the episode from a couple of weeks ago.
Speaker:What's your plan? And it's the same idea, but it was my mistake. It was a huge mistake, guys.
Speaker:I've made money in crypto, there's no doubt. But I messed up and it won't happen again.
Speaker:So we're going to move on to the news. Another big story came out this week. Just a few days
Speaker:ago. This was five days ago when I recorded this on the 31st. US regulators exploring how banks could
Speaker:hold crypto assets. This is the FDIC chairman. So in the United States, FDIC, they're essentially
Speaker:the insurance. If you go to a bank, it's FDIC insured, right? You'll see it right on their door
Speaker:or something like that. The idea is if your bank becomes insolvent, if something crazy happens,
Speaker:your money is safe. You get insurance, maybe not the whole amount, but you get
Speaker:at least some of your money back. So they're a regulatory arm of the US government when it comes
Speaker:to banking, finance. And they are exploring, hello, wake up people. Crypto is only 11 years old,
Speaker:12 years old. Thanks for showing up. They're exploring how banks can hold crypto assets.
Speaker:Welcome to the 21st century. This is not a shock. This was completely,
Speaker:a completely natural thing. So the time will come and I don't think it will be very long and you'll
Speaker:be able to go into your bank and maybe you can buy Bitcoin right there. That'd be kind of crazy.
Speaker:Or maybe they'll hold it and it will be insured, just like your savings account. Now you have a
Speaker:choice at that point. Do you want the bank to hold your money? Do you want to hold your money? Or
Speaker:do you want to leave it on a central exchange like we've talked about before? I will tell you my
Speaker:preference. If I have a lot of money, I'm going to hold it. I recorded another podcast earlier tonight
Speaker:and I said, when we're dealing with this stuff, it's the centralized exchange or the bank
Speaker:is like the bank. Of course, the bank is like the bank. So it's the centralized exchange.
Speaker:They hold your money. They control it. It's really not, well, in the crypto world, they own the keys.
Speaker:If I hold it in a hardware wallet or in a software wallet for that matter, I own the keys.
Speaker:It's my money and I like that personally. Now some people may not be more, this will bring in
Speaker:people who aren't comfortable with crypto exchanges, who aren't comfortable with
Speaker:the rough edges around the crypto software. This is the kind of thing that will bring mass adoption.
Speaker:And if you think it's crazy right now, you just wait because this is the stuff that will truly
Speaker:because this is the stuff that will truly bring this mass adoption.
Speaker:And for the coins that are proving their value, they will skyrocket.
Speaker:This actually says, I'll just read through this real quick. A couple of paragraphs out of this,
Speaker:I think is very important. So the chairman of the FDIC told the Reuters, the newspaper
Speaker:organization there in an interview on Monday, that a team of US bank regulators is trying to
Speaker:provide a roadmap for banks to engage with crypto assets. That could include clearer rules over
Speaker:holding currency in custody to facilitate client trading, using them as collateral for loans.
Speaker:Okay, I've got 10 Bitcoin, I need a loan for this house at 1% or whatever they're giving out loans
Speaker:for these days. Or even holding them on their balance sheets like more traditional assets,
Speaker:like banks hold money, cash, reserves. I think we need to allow banks in this place
Speaker:while appropriately managing and mitigating risk. She said in an interview on the sidelines of a
Speaker:fintech conference. So that's interesting. Not unexpected. I'm actually surprised that banks
Speaker:haven't done more at this point. Banks are very traditional though. You're not going to see a
Speaker:whole lot of leading tech stuff come from them, but they have to adapt just like in fact, this
Speaker:was brought up in the podcast earlier tonight, just like Western Union. If Western Union doesn't adapt
Speaker:apps like strike, which you can use to send and receive Bitcoin instantaneously from all around
Speaker:the world with very low fees. Western Union, which is a $400 million company, they're going to go
Speaker:away. They're just going to be gone. They'll be poof. If they don't pivot, they'll be just like
Speaker:Blockbuster. If these banks don't change, if these banks don't start integrating these services,
Speaker:and they will, especially after they're given direction from the FDIC, they're going to start
Speaker:doing it. It will be interesting to see the innovation that happens in this space. I don't
Speaker:think you're going to see the major innovation from Bank of America or Wells Fargo. It'll be
Speaker:from the smaller companies. I wish them all the best. I probably won't be using their services a
Speaker:whole lot, but that's okay. There's a lot of people who will. That's the only news of great note this
Speaker:week. We'll leave it at that. We're going to go ahead and wrap things up. It's been a little
Speaker:quicker than normal. I know last week was quite a bit longer. I hope that helps you. I love these
Speaker:bull markets. I love waking up and checking the phone and going, did we hit the all-time high?
Speaker:Just happened a couple of days ago with Ethereum. It's like woke up. It jumped up like a hundred
Speaker:bucks or something and hit. It was like 44.50 or something. I love being in a bull market like this,
Speaker:but as I've thought about this a lot over the last few years, I've figured out what I feel like were
Speaker:my weaknesses, and I'm trying my hardest to fix those. I want to pass these lessons on to you all
Speaker:so hopefully you can learn from them and not make those same mistakes. Hopefully when we do have a
Speaker:bear market, you can look at it as an opportunity to build true wealth instead of just, oh, it's a
Speaker:bear market. What are we going to do? It's down whatever. That's it. Hope you have a great week.