The salient point of our discussion today centers on the emergence of a genuine market rally, characterized by an optimistic shift driven by two significant developments: the prospect of a peace deal in the Middle East and a coordinated intervention to stabilize Japan's currency. Over the past fortnight, the market has navigated through considerable trepidation, yet recent events have catalyzed a broad-based ascent across various sectors, not merely confined to a select few technology firms. The Dow is poised near record highs, buoyed by the participation of small caps and the Nasdaq, signifying a robust market advance. However, while we acknowledge the positive momentum, it is imperative to exercise caution, as this rally is fundamentally underpinned by hopes rather than concrete agreements. We must remain vigilant, for the potential volatility stemming from geopolitics and economic indicators looms ever-present.

Takeaways:

• The market experienced a significant rally today, driven by hopes for a Middle Eastern peace deal and coordinated currency interventions.
• Investors should remain cautious, as relief rallies are often predicated on unfulfilled promises rather than concrete agreements.
• The upcoming jobs report will serve as a critical indicator of economic health amidst fluctuating market conditions.
• Both oil prices and Japan's currency movements are pivotal factors that could influence market sentiment in the near future.
• Real progress in the market is evidenced by broad participation rather than reliance on a select few stocks, indicating a healthier economic environment.
• While today's rally is encouraging, it is essential to recognize that underlying issues remain unresolved and could resurface unexpectedly.

Companies mentioned in this episode:

• Regime Lab
• Palantir
• Caterpillar
• Iran

Foreign folks, welcome to the daily read.

A huge day in the market for a lot of the things we've been watching here very carefully.

Show or get the slideshow going.

So for two weeks now, this market has been climbing a wall of worry.

An oil war heating up in the Middle East, a quiet currency crisis building in Japan.

And today both of those weights started coming off at the same time.

The market did exactly what you expect.

It took off.

So as a quick reminder, Regime Lab is my daily every number source read on the market which includes direction, breadth, credit volatility and leadership.

And today the REIT is broadly green for the first time in a while.

This is a genuine risk on rally.

The Dow is flirting with record highs unlike last week.

It's not just five tech names doing the work.

Small caps and broader markets are climbing with it.

Two things lit the fuse.

Real hope of a peace deal in the Middle east which sent oil tumbling and a coordinated move to stabilize Japan's currency, something we've been talking about for quite a while now on the show.

Add blockbuster earnings on top and last week's narrow rally finally broadened itself out.

Now there, here's the evidence and one piece of it you saw coming if you watch the show breath the Dow's near records and both small caps and Nasdaq claimed key trend lines today.

That's a broad advance, not a narrow one.

Oil and rates crude fell more than 5% to around $76 as Middle east peace deal looked close, taking pressure off of inflation.

In the tell last week I flagged a hidden risk.

You don't have to take my word for that mattered.

It's on the front page now and the exact risk we were watching is being actively defused.

Now that does not necessarily mean that isn't an issue going forward.

If Japan's currency continues to slip, it's very likely that you might see the bank of Japan step in.

So what does this mean for you?

Relief rallies feel wonderful, but it pays to know what they're built on.

This one is resting on a peace deal that's hoped for, not signed and a currency rescue that buys time without fixing Japan's underlying problem.

So enjoy the broadening.

A rally where the average stock participates is genuinely healthier than one carried by a handful of gian.

You don't mistake the weights lifting for weights gone.

The difference between the two is a headline away.

So here's what decides whether this Friday, the monthly jobs report, first real read on the economy as a as growth softens and the biggest number of the week and the two things that could flip the mood fast.

If the Middle east deal falls through, oil snaps right back up.

And if current if Japan's currency starts sliding again, that carry trade risk comes back into focus heading into Japan's central bank meeting next month called today.

Watch those for the there, watch those three.

So that's your daily read.

When we take a look at the thesis for this week or the thesis for today, it's the weights have come off.

Our confidence is still medium.

We've seen a couple of days of really good movement in the markets up.

We've seen some wonderful players like Palantir today even Caterpillar up significantly.

Those two alone have risen.

The rest of that kind of data center trade that we've been talking about for quite a while.

Risk level though is still elevated.

I think the biggest thing is the jobs number Friday and this Iran deal once again, even if they sign, it doesn't mean that Iran's going to follow any, any details of that.

So we could see this whole thing fall apart again and the US Start to bomb Iran.

At this point, the one thing I will say is the president basically said yesterday that this is Iran's last chance.

If it gets bad or if Iran doesn't follow through on a deal, it's likely that we are going to start pounding on them majorly and that could cause continued disruption on the oil fields.

Bottom line for today, it's a broad relief rally, real, but built on hopes, not actual signatures.

So that's your daily read for the day.

This is Jeff Kickel with Exit Rich retire Free.

This is for education and not investment advice.

If you'd like to talk through your plan, you know where to find me.

So thanks and we'll see you guys back here tomorrow.