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 Today in Health it, the story is predicting the next six months of vaccine rollout. My name is Bill Russell. I'm a former CIO for a 16 hospital system and creator of this week in health. It. A channel dedicated to keeping health IT staff current and engaged. We have no show sponsor for today, so if you're listening to this, you know the Power of Podcasting.

You can check it out. She comes at vaccine distribution from the human side, the health system side. She looks at ideas for health IT, and closes a peace with a little politics. And regardless of your politics, this is a great piece. You should take a look at it. Let's break it down a little bit. So Sue notes, I'm anxiously waiting to learn when my state Rhode Island will start vaccinating 65 plus.

So I can get my husband and I an appointment with the percent of doses administered overall in Rhode Island. I. Only 56% of what has been distributed in our state currently receiving just 14,000 new doses each week. I am not optimistic that it will be soon. And Sue has a bunch of those stories and I, I, I love the fact that she starts there and she starts talking about, uh, you know, a couple that had to drive, you know, 500 miles to get the vaccine.

And I think we all have those kinds of stories that are have happening right now. She goes on to say the good news at a macro level is that last week an average of 1.25 million doses per day were administered in the us. That is even better than the goal of 1 million per day for the first 100 days of the bi Biden administration, and there is more good news regarding the supply.

200 million more doses were ordered by the Biden administration this week with the expectation that there will be enough doses for everyone who wants the vaccine by some time this summer. It's interesting when the, the 200 million dose we're, we're gonna go through the numbers a little later. The 200 million doses have nothing to do with this summer.

Uh, the federal government already had 400 million doses on order. Which was gonna take 'em through this summer, the 200 million doses gets us actually to 600 million, 600 million for 300 and uh, 25 million, uh, Americans. And you have to start scratching your head and saying, Hmm, maybe this, they're planning for the next round of vaccinations and that maybe this vaccine only lasts for nine months.

Maybe it only lasts for a year, and they're starting to stock up. So that 200 million isn't . Really doing anything to alleviate the current problem. The current problem is a production problem and we will take a look at that in a minute. Alright, so she goes, uh, she goes on and she has a bunch of great guides in here.

So we know that the vaccine plans vary by state. How to get AC Ovid 19 vaccine, a state by state guide. This is a Wall Street Journal site. I went out and took a look at this. This is actually a really cool, uh, . Article has all 50 states. How you get in line, has phone numbers, has websites and whatnot. So it really is interesting, uh, and, and a really good resource.

So I, I highly recommend hitting that. There's a software system available from the CDC for states, counties, and other organizations to use vaccine access management system. It handles pre-screening, registration, scheduling, and tracking. Uh, my state, Rhode Island will use Prep Mod a software solution in use by several states.

Health systems appear to be using their own systems, assuming patients can schedule through their patient portal or by phone. Uh, and that's, that is the case. I think one of these, I think it's the Vaccine Access Management System, actually had, uh, significant challenges. Uh, there's an article out there that, uh, Sue shared with me separately in an email and I'll, I'll probably cover that because it's a good, a good example of, first of all, trying to roll out

Software in the middle of a pandemic. The number of use cases they were trying to address, it was probably a bridge too far, but we'll, we'll talk about that on another show. Uh, she covers mass vaccination events, atrium, uc, health, Denver, uh, CIC Health in Massachusetts. These are all great examples of health systems working with partners in the community and doing the work of filling the seats with willing.

Patients. So, uh, you know, so those are are great examples. She goes on to talk about the article in Healthcare IT News. I, I may have talked about this before, but the CIO's weigh in on the most useful tools for Covid 19 rollout, and she notes Kristen Myers, who's been a guest on our this week's show from Mount Sinai Health.

That one tool that would be helpful in vaccinating the public is a national patient identifier number system. Alright, so, uh, the vaccine rollout to date has been less than we had hoped, but there's some bright spots with increased supply. It should get better. I support the CDC guidelines for priority groups.

I. And recognize the need to address health equity and disparity issues. I applaud organizations who are addressing disparities with community-based vaccine centers. This issue goes on the lack of a national plan until last week has left states without enough supply and people scrambling to get appointments if.

They are in a qualified group. It is a multifactorial problem with federal guidance and help with states, counties, and health systems executing with creative partnerships, with enabling technologies and education campaigns for the reticent. We will get through this. I'm actually much more optimistic. In fact, you know, I, I look at what President Biden said.

The president said on Monday, he expects the general public to gain access to shots by the spring as he seemed to elevate his administration's goal of 1 million vaccinations a day or 1.5 million. Although AIDS said that was aspirational and Biden drew back on Tuesday from his earlier ambition of administering a hundred million shots in the, in a hundred days, insisting it would be a good start.

Lisa, let me give you some of the . Some of the, some of the stats to work with here. So, as I said, 328 million people in the US give or take, USA today says that, uh, 44.5 million vaccine doses have been distributed and 23.5 million have been administered. Bloomberg says 33.7 million doses have been given out.

They're doing a state by state tally. So they're saying 33 million have already been given out, so that's 10% of the people have already been vaccinated across the entire country. So if you set your goal at a hundred million vaccinations in the first a hundred days, and you're already at 33 million in the first a hundred days, and that probably is not including the military.

If we included the military, that probably bumps it up a little bit more. Uh, I, I would say the word that comes to mind is sandbagging with limited vaccine availability. We've been able to do close to 35 million people. All right. And that's with all the things that are supposedly broken with the process.

35 million people have been vaccinated. So that's where we're at. So the, the word sandbagging comes to mind. If, if we don't get to a hundred million, I would be absolutely dumbfounded. So what is the problem? The problem is production. Production of the vaccine. So let's take a look at that. So we already talked about, you know, the, the US is in line for 600 million doses, so it's not a.

You know, we could place another order for another 200 million and another order for another 200 million, have a billion doses on order, and it just wouldn't matter. It's all about production. So let's see what's going on here. Washington Post notes. The United States should have 200 million doses each. I.

From the companies with authorized shots, Pfizer and Moderna, enough to guarantee that more than 70% of adults will be able to get the two shot vaccination by the end of July. That is comparable to the share of adults. Some polls suggest will be willing to roll up their sleeves. Okay, so that's the first thing.

We're hearing 200 million doses from the companies with authorized shots. So that's Pfizer and Moderna. That is. Now, remember, there's only 328 million people, so that is a majority of the people that are gonna be able to have two shots by the end of July. The poll suggests that the bigger problem, and I've covered that enough on this show, but it's how are you gonna get the rest?

But either way, if you know 200 million want the shot. That is fantastic. That is well above what we do for the flu. The flu we get around 50, uh, 40 to 50%, and it has a significant impact on the, uh, the spread of the flu during the flu season. So if we get to 200 million, two thirds of the US population, add that to the people that have already had it.

Then you're gonna have a significant dent in this pandemic. Uh, let's go on. 'cause fierce pharma rights. Moderna expects some 100 million doses to be available in the US by the first quarter's end out of a total of 200 million. It aims to supply. By the close of the second quarter, Moderna started delivering the shipment shortly after its December green light and to date, around 18 million doses have been, have made their way to the US government.

The company said, . Here are those numbers. We're supposed to have 200 million doses each from the companies, both Moderna and Pfizer by the end of July. And what you heard in the second story from the Fierce Farmer story is that Moderna is saying, Hey, you're gonna have a hundred million AFT by the end of the first quarter.

The end of the first quarter, January, February, or March is the end of March. That's within the first a hundred days. You're gonna have a hundred million doses of just the Moderna. Vaccine now, let alone the Pfizer vaccine, which means you're gonna have plenty to actually put in arms. So now the problem is not going in the first a hundred days is not gonna be production.

It is gonna become distribution. Let's talk about that. So the plan under the Trump administration was to do it as close to the patients as possible. So they were looking at the local health systems, they were looking at, uh, clinics, they were looking at Walmart, CVS, uh, Walgreens and the like in the local markets to get the word out and to, uh, get people in line.

They were utilizing the states. To administer the program to make sure that the right people were getting the vaccine at the right time. And so they had the states who were going to coordinate this and they set aside money for the states. Close to $8 billion was set aside during the CARES Act to, uh, four, specifically four distribution.

And in fact, uh, 350 million of that was distributed through the CDC over the October, november, December timeframe to states to prepare for it. Okay, so you're at the beginning of this project, and as we know with any project, it's hardly ever smooth when you first roll something out, and I think we are at a point where we are starting to hit our stride with this.

Uh, people are starting to figure out, they're starting to talk to each other. This is how you get in line the, if you want the vaccine, you can get the vaccine. If we had 200 million doses right now. We could open it up to everybody and everybody could just start going to your local CVS. You could start going to your Walmart, you could start going to your hospital.

You could start going to your doctor's office and a potentially dentist's office and start getting the vaccine. So that was the plan under the Trump administration. Fast forward, we have a new administration. The new administration is essentially, uh, buying more vaccine. And I'm not entirely sure why that is.

I'd, I'd like to talk to somebody and figure that out. They are mobilizing fema. So you're gonna see FEMA start to set up tents in the middle of cities. You're gonna see them, I think, first in New Jersey. You'll see them in a couple other places, probably large metros. And this is going to be, I guess, an attempt to, uh, alleviate the, the concern for people of where do you go to get the vaccine.

I, I, to be honest with you, I'm not sure I understand it because right around the corner from that is your local hospital right down the street from there is another clinic. Definitely right across the street is ACVS. Uh, a Walgreens and a Walmart. So there are already mechanisms for getting this out there.

Rolling out. FEMA at this point is a significant cost and creates actually even more complexity to getting the vaccine out. I'm not sure I understand it, but regardless, you roll out fema, you're going to increase the number of people getting the vaccine. So this is why I thi I, I'm really optimistic. I, I can't imagine that if we had a hundred people, a hundred million people who are lined up, ready to go, we're gonna have a production that's going to give us almost 200 million doses.

By the end of March or April. I'm not sure why you can't get to that a hundred million in the first a hundred days. You should be able to do that without breaking a sweat. In fact, I don't even think you need to roll out fema. I think you just give it to CVS, Walmart, Walgreens. You utilize the health systems that you're utilizing today in the clinics.

Maybe even empower some dentists and I think we are off to the races, then we can solve our next problem. And the next problem, as I've said many times, is those people who don't want to get it, because I will be ecstatic if we get to 200 million people vaccinated. I think the number's gonna in, uh, probably pretty well short of that and we are gonna have some work to do after that.

So again, I highly recommended this article. A lot of great resources. I love the human aspect of it. Uh, Sue does a good job, we'll probably talk about this. I. In the show when she comes on the uh, Newsday show in a couple weeks. That's all for today. If you know of someone that might benefit from our channel, please forward them a note.

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