This is another of our Global Outlook series where we discuss the latest global geopolitical developments that we're keeping an eye on.
We start with the developing story of RAAF F-35 parts being shipped to USA for servicing being diverted to Hong Kong and winding up in Chinese hands, including a canopy which could provide China with classified information. We also look at Xi Jinping's visit to the USA for a summit with President Trump, including whether trade will be impacted, the US$14bn arms sale to Taiwan that Trump is delaying, and the continuing mutual deterrence that is providing some form of strategic stability.
Xi Jinping is in the USA to meet with Trump. Will the supply of rare earths continue as per South Korean agreement? Multual deterrance giving some strategic stability. Will the US continue with the $14bn arms sale to Taiwan or use it as a bargaining chip?
We wrap with a look at recent Russian manoeuvring near Estonia and the potential for the border township of Narva to become a point where Russia tests a weakened NATO's resolve over Article 5. Infiltrating Russian special forces into a Russian speaking town on the border to then act as separatists seeking independence is a move from Russia's playbook that we've seen occur in Crimea and in Ukraine.
Links:
Classified Australian F-35 parts disappear in Hong Kong
https://www.australiandefence.com.au/news/news/classified-australian-f-35-parts-disappear-in-hong-kong
F-35 freight provider partnered with blacklisted Chinese company
https://www.australiandefence.com.au/news/news/f-35-freight-provider-partnered-with-blacklisted-chinese-company
What China Wants from the Washington Summit
https://www.sinification.org/p/what-china-wants-from-the-washington
What a Limited Russian Incursion Into Estonia Might Look Like: A Narva Scenario
https://understandingwar.org/research/defense-of-europe/what-a-limited-russian-incursion-into-estonia-might-look-like-a-narva-scenario/
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