Australia knows it needs to build more homes. But if construction is already operating close to capacity, where will the extra housing actually come from?
HIA senior economist Tom Devitt joins Veronica and Chris to unpack the constraints holding the industry back and why simply calling for more supply misses the complexity of getting homes built. The conversation covers skilled labour shortages, planning and approvals, land and infrastructure costs, construction productivity, prefab housing and the shift towards medium-density development. Tom also explains why Sydney and Melbourne have struggled to recover, while WA, Queensland and South Australia have performed more strongly.
They also examine the fallout from changes to negative gearing and SMSF borrowing, including the risk that relatively small numbers of affected apartment sales could have a much larger impact on project financing. And with rental vacancy rates around 1%, Tom challenges the idea that investors are the problem, arguing that Australia needs more rental accommodation, not less.
From stamp duty and development feasibility to the difference between the real estate market and the underlying housing market, this conversation gets into the structural issues that will determine whether Australia can actually close its housing supply gap.
Episode Highlights
01:39 – Meet HIA Economist Tom Devitt
02:14 – Why Australia Still Can’t Build Enough Homes
04:13 – The Skilled Trades Shortage Holding Housing Back
07:01 – Why Construction Workers Are Being Pulled Elsewhere
10:35 – Prefab Won’t Solve the Housing Shortage Alone
13:08 – How the SMSF Ban Could Sink Entire Projects
17:03 – The Housing Finance Fallout From the SMSF Ban
19:36 – Are Buyers Losing Confidence in New Housing?
22:44 – Why Sydney and Melbourne Are Falling Behind
25:32 – Are We Really Measuring Construction Productivity?
30:46 – Why Builders Are Going Under Despite Strong Demand
34:17 – Why Some New Housing Simply Doesn’t Stack Up
36:59 – Why Medium-Density Housing Could Be the Sweet Spot
39:58 – The Housing Fundamentals That Eventually Win
41:44 – The Rental Crisis Needs More Investors, Not Fewer
About the Guest
Tom Devitt is a senior economist at the Housing Industry Association (HIA), where he works on the economic conditions shaping Australia’s residential construction industry. His work includes analysing housing construction forecasts, industry capacity, labour shortages, planning constraints and the impact of government policy on new housing.
Tom brings an industry-focused economic perspective to the housing supply debate, looking beyond headline targets to examine what actually determines whether a home gets built. In this episode, he discusses construction capacity, skilled trades shortages, development feasibility, planning reform, rental supply and the effects of recent policy changes affecting property investment and housing finance.
Connect with Tom
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Veronica & Chris
