Credit union predictions take center stage as Mark Ritter hosts Jeff Lyons on Credit Union Conversations to review their 2025 forecasts. The MBFS leaders analyze their interest rate forecasts, NCUA board changes, and tariff-negotiation predictions with a candid self-assessment. Throughout this engaging review, they explore Federal Reserve rate cuts, consumer lending trends, commercial lending stability, and the challenges facing credit unions in the auto loan market as vehicle prices surpass $50,000. They examine the accuracy of housing market forecasts and the outcomes of budget deal negotiations, while acknowledging mixed results in their prognostication.

WHAT YOU WILL LEARN IN THIS EPISODE:

✅ How NCUA board changes and Supreme Court cases continue to impact credit union regulatory oversight, with the FTC lawsuit setting precedent for future administrative decisions affecting the credit union industry.

✅ Why the auto loan market faces unprecedented challenges as average new vehicle prices exceed $50,000, causing consumers to hold vehicles longer and fundamentally shifting credit union business strategies.

✅ The accuracy of inflation predictions and credit card delinquency forecasts, including how CPI data at 2.7% contradicts consumer experiences of rising costs in everyday purchases.

✅ How commercial lending stability diverged from consumer lending trends in 2025, creating a bifurcated lending environment that requires different strategic approaches for credit unions.

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Mark Ritter and Jeff Lyons review their year-end credit union predictions for 2025 and discuss their accuracy

00:38 NCUA board changes discussion covering the firing of Democratic board members and predictions about Supreme Court cases impacting regulatory authority

01:33 Interest rate forecasts review, revealing they missed by 25 basis points and tariff negotiations analysis examining how tariffs became a negotiating tool

07:07 Auto loan market and consumer lending trends, highlighting the average cost of a vehicle and the lending environment affecting credit union business

09:06 Discussion of credit card debt to be determined in February and March, and some football talk: Penn State and Rutgers

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

💲Tariff negotiations proved to be primarily a negotiating tool rather than a permanent policy, with initial concerns about widespread economic impact diminishing by year-end as countries eagerly negotiated with the U.S., validating the prediction that tariff discussions would fade from headlines.

💲Budget deal negotiations successfully extended and codified existing tax rate extensions rather than allowing rates to sunset, demonstrating how political necessity drives compromise even in divided government scenarios. However, healthcare insurance rates remain unresolved heading into the new year.

💲Housing market forecast accuracy was mixed as hot markets experienced price corrections while other areas remained stable.

ABOUT THE GUEST:

Jeff Lyons - LinkedIn

RESOURCES MENTIONED:

Mark Ritter - Website

Mark Ritter - LinkedIn

SEO KEYWORDS:

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[00:00:31] Jeff, are you ready to review our predictions from several months ago? I can't wait

[00:00:38] Mark Ritter: So one of the items that we talked about was the chaos at the NCUA board and the firing of two Democratic NCUA board members. We tried to figure out what was gonna go on and put on our legal hat, and I said, this is going to go all the way to the Supreme Court.

[00:01:22] I think we were on the mark with that one.

[00:01:25] Mark Ritter: That's a thumbs up. So, yeah. And it seems like this is gonna bleed over all the way into next year. Yes. Next up, we talked about interest rates. What the heck was going to go on with interest rates? At the time, interest rates were not adjusted in 2025, and we said, what's gonna happen?

[00:02:14] We were pretty close. We were pretty close. You know, one of the pieces that I talked about was that the bonds were going to remain high. That piece is, you know, as rates go down, the treasuries are continuing to maintain high. Yep. Yeah. How would you rate our interest rate pre prediction? What grade would you give that?

[00:02:40] Mark Ritter: they snuck in that December rate cut on us.

[00:02:44] Mark Ritter: Then we also bled over into the politics of the day, and it turns out the subject of the year of tariffs. You said that it was gonna be primarily a negotiating tool.

[00:03:12] Jeff Lyons: Yeah. And I said other countries would be eager to negotiate with us, which is exactly what occurred in my opinion.

[00:03:40] And then usually after about a week, it kind of goes away.

[00:03:51] Mark Ritter: it really has died down. It's going to be, and actually, I'm not sure if the Trump administration is gonna win the [00:04:00] Supreme Court case on tariffs. In terms of just ability to say, this is an emergency.

[00:04:13] Jeff Lyons: I would

[00:04:14] Jeff Lyons: And I'm not smart enough to figure out what the Supreme Court's gonna do.

[00:04:28] Yep. And as my wife tells me every week, coffee costs a lot more.

[00:04:48] They're saying there's less inflation. So

[00:05:01] Jeff Lyons: right? The demand is softer. I think a lot of that number has, is gonna have to come with the price of gas, right?

[00:05:16] Mark Ritter: I think that the inflation is going to continue to be plus 2%, where it's going to be a little bit higher 'cause, 'cause I feel like everything is higher.

[00:05:33] Jeff Lyons: Yeah, the headache remains right. Even if things are coming down, people are still holding them up for a little longer.

[00:05:47] Yes. When inflation is low, it just doesn't rise at the same rate. But prices are still rising. So people are seeing this as, you know, prices aren't going down. No [00:06:00] prices aren't going down, and I think if we end up in a deflationary environment, that's when things really went sideways on us.

[00:06:07] Mark Ritter: So next up, we talked about the budget deal.

[00:06:38] Correct. There's a few other things, you know, we're still, uh, haggling about the health insurance rates and I still believe that will go up to the 11th hour and magically, uh, be fixed in January. But we'll see. I think the script has already been written on the TV show and it's just a matter of when it happens.

[00:07:00] Mark Ritter: So on the budget deal, I think we were one in one. 'cause I think you were a little off, but I was a little closer to accurate.

[00:07:07] Mark Ritter: So we then got into, in our predictions in the loan market, what the heck was going on because we were experiencing a complete whiplash from 2024.

[00:07:44] Interest rates have come down on a little bit, but. People are just saying, I'm gonna hold onto my car. When me and you were younger, a 10 year car was falling apart. Unheard of. Right? Unheard of. Yeah. What the heck is this? You know, you, you had, [00:08:00] uh, Bondo and duct tape holding it together. That's,

[00:08:04] Mark Ritter: Now, if you have a 10 year car, you're good. They, they last for a couple hundred thousand miles without much of a problem and, uh, move on with life.

[00:08:19] Mark Ritter: I think people are going to inherently hold onto their cars for a lot longer and slow down the auto market.

[00:08:29] Jeff Lyons: Yeah.

[00:08:45] Jeff Lyons: Yeah. I said values would regulate. Yep.

[00:09:14] Jeff Lyons: Yeah.

[00:09:17] Jeff Lyons: It's been a great year. It's been a great year for everybody, which is a good thing across the board, so Perfect there. I agree with you on the credit cards. You know, come January when the bills all come in, we'll see what that number is. Is it higher than what years past, or are we still kind of the same?

[00:09:41] Mark Ritter: Yep. And, and let's move on to the biggest disaster of our predictions when we talked a little bit of football. You're a Rutgers guy. I'm a Penn State guy. Jeff Lyons said seven and a half wins for his Rutgers Scarlet Knights.

[00:10:08] Jeff Lyons: So I said seven and a half wins for Rutgers. They wound up five and seven, but in my defense, there were three games that they should have won.

[00:10:36] Hopefully next year with the new athletic director, that might change, but we'll see.

[00:11:00] I never liked him personally. Yeah. And this can be codified for years going onto the internet, and Virginia Tech will find out all of his personality flaws soon enough.

[00:11:18] Mark Ritter: Yes.

[00:11:42] On social media likes.

[00:11:54] Mark Ritter: basics. I will take back to basics. I will take that any day. Yep. Alright, Jeff, in a few [00:12:00] weeks we're gonna release our predictions for 2026, so I am looking forward to it.

[00:12:24] Thank you for joining us and we will talk to you soon.