THE PROTEIN PULSE PODCAST

Closing Bell Friday | September 25, 2026

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Closing Bell Friday for September 25, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Kansas and the Hogs and Pigs report tell two different stories, but both matter if you’re buying protein for the fourth quarter. National Beef adjusted shifts in Liberal, cattle shipments have been delayed, and buyers are dealing with uncertainty over beef deliveries. That can become a problem for next week’s production schedule, regardless of where the cutout closed. On the pork side, USDA reported a smaller pig crop despite record productivity. It doesn’t mean we’re short of pork today, but those missing pigs won’t be available when they would ordinarily reach market. With holiday production, transportation, and year-end inventories ahead, I’d be confirming beef deliveries and checking pork coverage against the weeks I actually need product. A softer price is useful, but only if the product is there when the plant needs it. A softer market doesn’t guarantee a full truck.

HOST: Southwest Kansas processing disruptions are affecting cattle movement and beef shipment reliability. Santa Teresa reopened Thursday, restoring an important Mexican cattle supply channel. USDA’s September Hogs and Pigs report showed fewer breeding animals and a smaller pig crop despite record productivity. Imported lean remains an important alternative for ground beef manufacturers as domestic lean supplies remain constrained.

SHAWN: National Beef adjusted shift starting times at its Liberal, Kansas, facility on September twenty-third amid increased federal immigration enforcement across southwest Kansas. The Kansas Livestock Association, Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association, and Texas Cattle Feeders Association subsequently reported thousands of delayed fed-cattle shipments and millions of dollars in associated losses and additional costs. USDA estimated Thursday’s cattle slaughter at ninety thousand, versus one hundred seven thousand the previous Thursday. Week-to-date three hundred eighty-nine thousand, down from four hundred twenty thousand the preceding week. Year-to-date nineteen point nine one million, down seven point seven percent. The longer-term slaughter contraction predates this week’s disruption. USDA’s national figures do not establish how much of Thursday’s decline resulted specifically from immigration enforcement.

HOST: Heavy carcasses continue providing additional pounds. Steer carcass weights averaged nine hundred seventy-seven pounds for the week ending September twelfth, up eighteen pounds year over year. Thursday’s wholesale market finished lower. Choice three seventy-six. Select three fifty-two. For buyers, the near-term issue is delivery reliability. A lower cutout provides little relief when a committed shipment cannot reach the production line.

SHAWN: Santa Teresa reopened September twenty-fourth following restrictions associated with New World screwworm. That restores an important feeder-cattle supply channel under enhanced inspection and animal-health protocols. Santa Teresa helps replenish cattle entering the U.S. production system. It does not immediately replace finished cattle or resolve this week’s Kansas processing interruptions.

HOST: Dairy cows have accounted for about fifty-seven percent of U.S. cow slaughter in twenty twenty-six, according to Len Steiner’s September twenty-fourth Daily Livestock Report. The dairy herd reached nine point seven one million head in August, its highest level since nineteen ninety-two. Additional dairy culls have helped supply domestic manufacturing beef while beef-cow slaughter remains constrained. Dairy herd expansion is slowing, making imported lean particularly relevant to ground beef manufacturers.

SHAWN: USDA counted seventy-four point three oh two million hogs and pigs on September first, about one point five percent below last year. The breeding herd declined to five point eight seven five million — its smallest September inventory since twenty thirteen, according to economist Lee Schulz. The June–August pig crop declined to thirty-four point five oh eight million, despite producers saving a record eleven point nine six pigs per litter. Fewer sows farrowing outweighed the productivity improvement. Schulz projected modest average profitability for twenty twenty-six and losses under his twenty twenty-seven futures assumptions. Purdue’s Michael Langemeier estimated swine finishing feed costs could increase about nine point seven percent in twenty twenty-seven using early-September futures. The smaller pig crop is a forward supply consideration. It does not establish an immediate shortage of holiday pork.

HOST: Pork export sales increased seventeen percent to thirty-five thousand three hundred metric tons for the week ending September seventeenth. Physical shipments rose sixteen percent to thirty-two thousand one hundred. Mexico led with fifteen thousand eight hundred metric tons, then China at six thousand nine hundred. Thursday’s pork cutout declined to eighty-six cents, with bellies losing three thirty-three cents. National negotiated hogs finished near seventy-nine cents. The Hogs and Pigs report was released after Thursday’s session. Those prices are the completed market preceding the report, not the market’s reaction to it.

SHAWN: Chicken. USDA reported one hundred sixty-eight point oh one three million chickens slaughtered in the week ending September nineteenth, down four percent from the comparable twenty twenty-five week. Ready-to-cook production declined six percent. Year-to-date production remained one point four percent above last year, at about thirty-two point one six billion pounds. Component prices continue to diverge. Boneless skinless thighs around a dollar fifty-four, up thirty-four cents over the preceding week. Jumbo breasts near a dollar twenty-one. Wings around a dollar. USDA described the broader chicken market as generally steady. Two additional Minnesota HPAI detections affected commercial meat turkey flocks totaling fifty-one thousand five hundred birds. A resulting reduction in national chicken production has not been established.

HOST: Thursday USDA: domestic fresh nineties three ninety-nine. Fifties ninety-one cents. Imported nineties indicated around three nineteen C I F East Coast. That’s about an eighty-cent difference between price references. It does not represent a confirmed delivered savings figure. Domestic fed cattle generate fatty trim. Ground beef manufacturers need lean to hit finished-product specs. Imported lean is another sourcing option when domestic cow and bull beef supplies are constrained. Nevil Speer in Beef Magazine cites Kansas State’s Brian Coffey describing imported lean trimmings as complementary to domestic beef supplies. Seasonal processing in Australia and New Zealand could add manufacturing beef. Renewed Asian demand may compete for that supply.

SHAWN: Weekly U.S. beef export sales declined thirty-four percent to nine thousand four hundred metric tons, while actual shipments increased twenty-two percent to twelve thousand one hundred. Pork export sales and shipments both improved. New sales and physical shipments measure different stages of export demand and should not be treated interchangeably.

HOST: The administration’s August proclamation increased the twenty twenty-six in-quota quantity for specified lean beef trimmings by three hundred thousand metric tons, in three tranches beginning September first. The proposed BEEF Act would suspend that additional authorization and establish a domestic beef supply advisory board. It has been introduced, not enacted. MICA reminded importers that Australia’s W T O quota and qualifying duty-free access under the Australia free-trade agreement are separate. Australia’s combined twenty twenty-six entitlement totals four hundred forty-nine thousand nine hundred nine metric tons. Filling Australia’s W T O quota alone does not automatically end qualifying free-trade access.

SHAWN: December corn five twenty-seven and a half, down a cent and a half. November soybeans thirteen seventeen and a half. October meal up five eighty to three seventy-six ten. November crude up two forty-five to ninety-four sixty-one. Lower corn prices did not translate into lower costs across every feed component. Elevated energy remains a consideration for livestock transportation and delivered protein costs.

HOST: Radar. Confirm next week’s beef allocations and delivery schedules where southwest Kansas disruptions may affect committed product. Reconcile fourth-quarter and early twenty twenty-seven pork requirements against actual production weeks. The smaller pig crop warrants attention without assuming an immediate shortage. Evaluate imported lean, domestic nineties, and available fatty trim together using comparable delivered costs and finished-product specifications.

SHAWN: Snapshot. Choice three seventy-six. Select three fifty-two. Fresh nineties three ninety-nine. Eighty-fives two seventy-six. Fifties ninety-one cents. Pork cutout eighty-six cents. Bellies eighty-seven cents, down three thirty-three. October live cattle two nineteen oh seven, down a dollar eighty-five. December corn five twenty-seven and a half. November crude ninety-four sixty-one. Thursday slaughter: cattle ninety thousand, down seven point seven year-to-date. Hogs four hundred eighty-nine thousand, down one percent. Chicken thirty-five point five million, up one point one.

HOST: Bottom line.

SHAWN: Kansas creates an immediate beef delivery concern. Santa Teresa restores a feeder-cattle supply channel on a different timeline. USDA’s smaller pig crop gives pork buyers a reason to review forward coverage against their actual production requirements. Before holiday production begins, know which beef loads are committed, which pork weeks still need coverage, and what your finished ground beef blend will cost. A softer market doesn’t guarantee a full truck. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Closing Bell Friday for September 25, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.