Martha Gimbel, executive director of The Budget Lab at Yale, returns to the New Bazaar to chat with Cardiff about all things debt and deficits.

Martha argues that the fiscal choices of the past decade have already led to higher costs on mortgages, car loans, and small-business debt. She and Cardiff discuss what might happen next given the frightening projections for future borrowing.

They discuss:

• Is “we can’t leave this problem to our kids and grandkids” a misleading way to think about the national debt?
• Why is it so hard to know exactly what level of debt could lead to a fiscal crisis? Why such precision is often the enemy of understanding
• Does she take flak from the left for arguing that the crowding out effect is a real thing?
• Immigration and the deficit
• Which policies could actually bend the deficit curve down?
• A DOGE post-mortem

And lots more.

Related links:

• Lower Immigration Means Lower Productivity Growth by Abhi Gupta
• 2026 chart book examines spending, taxes, and deficits by Jessica Riedl
• Martha’s The Atlantic piece on the national debt
• The National Debt’s Unforgiving Math by Jared Bernstein
• The Budget Lab at Yale website
• The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 | Congressional Budget Office
• Where Do Our Federal Tax Dollars Go? | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
• CRS report on Foreign Holdings of Federal Debt