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Inventions
Episode 38918th March 2026 • Cognitive Engineering • Cognitive Engineering
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Where did all the eccentric inventors go? The men (and women) in sheds, the gadgets with flashing lights, the sense that the future was arriving one bizarre prototype at a time. In this episode of the Cognitive Engineering Podcast, the panel ask whether invention has become boring — or whether our idea of invention is simply out of date.

Starting with Tomorrow’s World, the Innovations catalogue and the golden age of gadgetry, the conversation moves into patents, capital intensity, incremental progress and the shift from lone inventors to teams, firms and platforms. Along the way, the hosts explore whether innovation has moved from atoms to bits, whether low-hanging fruit has already been picked, and why we might be surrounded by astonishing technology while feeling less excited than ever.

The episode closes with personal “inventions”, disappointing gadgets, and a reminder that creativity may be more democratised now than at any point in history — even if it no longer looks like a bearded professor wheeling something dangerous into a TV studio.

Topics covered

  • Tomorrow’s World, gadgets and the romance of invention
  • The myth of the lone inventor
  • Atoms vs bits: physical invention and software
  • What patent data actually shows about innovation
  • Capital intensity and “low-hanging fruit”
  • Incremental vs breakthrough innovation
  • Why batteries and concrete are more exciting than they sound
  • Democratisation of invention: GitHub, maker spaces and 3D printing
  • Falling costs and the invisibility of progress
  • Why technology might feel boring despite being extraordinary

Key ideas & moments

  • The heyday of individual inventors may have been the 19th century, not the 1980s
  • Most inventions today are still physical — just less visible
  • Incremental progress can be transformative without being dramatic
  • Cheap, abundant technology dulls our sense of wonder
  • Why invention may be everywhere, but invention stories are disappearing
  • Fraser’s dual-glasses “optical breakthrough” (and its controversial reception)

Contributors

  • Fraser McGruer
  • Nick Hare
  • Peter Coghill

About the podcast

The Cognitive Engineering Podcast explores decision-making, technology, creativity and complex systems through thoughtful, wide-ranging conversations. New episodes are released every week or two.

Links

For more information on Aleph Insights visit our website https://alephinsights.com or to get in touch about our podcast email podcast@alephinsights.com

A few things we mentioned in this podcast:

- The Innovations Catalogue http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/2957409.stm

- Decline of the Independent Inventor https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w11654/w11654.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com

- The ‘bungling inventor’ trope https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/BunglingInventor

Transcripts

Fraser McGruer:

Hello and welcome to the Cognitive

Fraser McGruer:

Engineering podcast, brought to you by Aleph Insights and

Fraser McGruer:

produced by me, Fraser McGruer. I'm here with Nick Hare and

Fraser McGruer:

Peter Coghill of Aleph Insights on this podcast, we look at a

Fraser McGruer:

wide range of topics, and today we're asking the question, Where

Fraser McGruer:

have all the inventors gone? Hey, Nick, where have all the

Fraser McGruer:

inventors gone?

Nick Hare:

Yeah, do you remember Fraser, you're we're all of a

Nick Hare:

similar age and age. And when I was a kid, one of my favourite

Nick Hare:

ever programmes was Tomorrow's World. And I think I was first

Nick Hare:

introduced to it at the age of about four. What's Tomorrow's

Nick Hare:

World? Well, it was a programme that ran from 1965 to 2003 and

Nick Hare:

it was, it was a, basically a programme about new and future

Nick Hare:

technology that was coming online. And the, I mean, one of

Nick Hare:

the gimmicks, I suppose, of the programme was that it was live.

Nick Hare:

Was it live? Yeah, it was live until, right up until the late

Nick Hare:

90s, it was live. And obviously it lost something, and it

Nick Hare:

stopped being live. And of course, that meant half the time

Nick Hare:

the things wouldn't work, the robots would kind of go wrong or

Nick Hare:

fall over or whatever. Yeah. But the point is, it was didn't stop

Nick Hare:

it being, I thought absolutely like, so exciting to see these

Nick Hare:

inventions that would be on screen, and maybe in a year or

Nick Hare:

two's time, you could have them at home. And so some of the,

Nick Hare:

some of the key things that were demonstrated on there was the

Nick Hare:

home computer. Do you want to guess when that was first

Nick Hare:

demonstrated?

Fraser McGruer:

So size 65 computer, yeah, the home

Fraser McGruer:

computer, 1969

Nick Hare:

67 not bad. How about the ATM and Chip and PIN

Nick Hare:

technology?

Fraser McGruer:

I would say similar. Yeah. 69

Nick Hare:

digital watch, 1972 the CD player, 1981 mobile

Nick Hare:

phone, 1979 all now things we're quite familiar with, and in some

Nick Hare:

cases, which are now obsolete as a CD player, yeah. So, as I

Nick Hare:

said, it was always broadcast live. But the thing is, it was

Nick Hare:

just really exciting. And what they demonstrated, you know, was

Nick Hare:

a bunch of tech. And what's technology is things with

Nick Hare:

flashing lights on, with knobs, keys, things that did stuff they

Nick Hare:

would move or flash or walk about, and it was cancelled,

Nick Hare:

apparently, according to the BBC, just through eventually,

Nick Hare:

the viewing figures just tailed off, right? So for some reason,

Nick Hare:

people just got bored of seeing future technology in the early

Nick Hare:

2000s and then I thought, well, hang on. Do you remember the

Nick Hare:

innovations catalogue also cancelled in 2003 what's the

Nick Hare:

innovations? Oh, the innovations catalogue was it a brilliant

Nick Hare:

little magazine that was published from 1985 up till 2003

Nick Hare:

and was included in Sunday papers. And it had all these

Nick Hare:

brilliant gadgets in right things like light up slippers,

Nick Hare:

revolving tie racks, a spider arm's length spider catching

Nick Hare:

device, potato powered clocks. No, they weren't all ridiculous.

Nick Hare:

Actually, there was the Dyson vacuum cleaner was. And the

Nick Hare:

thing I always wanted, which was the most expensive thing, which

Nick Hare:

was a laser display device you'd plug into your Hi Fi, and it

Nick Hare:

would do like, laser patterns on your ceiling and tied to the

Nick Hare:

music cool. It was all stuff like that, like ranging from,

Nick Hare:

you know, a fiver through to sort of 1500 quid and and again,

Nick Hare:

it was, it was sort of everyone used to make fun of it, because

Nick Hare:

some of them were just utterly ridiculous. A lot of them were

Nick Hare:

just randomly combining two things, like, you know, this is

Nick Hare:

a pen that also tells the time, or this is, you know, a

Nick Hare:

dictionary that also makes you a cup of coffee or whatever. But

Nick Hare:

there was something fun about this idea of gadgets, like in

Nick Hare:

there was futuristic gadgety stuff. Anyway, it does feel to

Nick Hare:

me that these days, technology is basically smartphone apps.

Nick Hare:

And, you know, I sort of think, well, what would tomorrow's

Nick Hare:

world be like now it would just be, well, here's another

Nick Hare:

smartphone app that does something useful, you know,

Nick Hare:

because kind of boring. So, is it true? How's technology am i

Nick Hare:

Is it a misperception that innovation has stopped being

Nick Hare:

interesting gadgets? You know? Is it the case that inventors,

Nick Hare:

you know, the kind of people would come on with the beard,

Nick Hare:

Professor, somebody or other, you know, you don't really hear

Nick Hare:

about them anymore. You do hear about Elon Musk and you know

Nick Hare:

people like Jeff Bezos, but they're business guys, like the

Nick Hare:

nutty inventor types. Where have they gone? Basically,

Nick Hare:

technology. Is it boring? Or am I just, am I just, is it rose

Nick Hare:

tinted spectacles? Great question.

Fraser McGruer:

Didn't wasn't it on Tomorrow's World? They had

Fraser McGruer:

that one particular inventor guy who would come along every now

Fraser McGruer:

and again. I'm sure he on Blue Peter, so maybe this would help.

Fraser McGruer:

So I remember he had this really cool invention for getting rid

Fraser McGruer:

of worms, I think, in your garden, and it was to cycle

Fraser McGruer:

around. Actually, you kind of want worms in your cycle. But

Fraser McGruer:

anyway, he what he did. He had this tricycle or bicycle that he

Fraser McGruer:

cycled around his garden that had, he'd, he'd tied something

Fraser McGruer:

tinkly to the wheels that imitated, if you were a worm,

Fraser McGruer:

would sound exactly like rain, and worms don't like rain, so

Fraser McGruer:

they get drowned. Apparently, they'll all come out, and that's

Fraser McGruer:

how you get rid of your worms. Do you know who this

Nick Hare:

guy is? That's precisely the kind of thing I'm

Nick Hare:

talking about. Yeah. See, nowadays it would just be a

Nick Hare:

smartphone app that played the sound of a tinker. There'll be

Nick Hare:

no tricycle with bells on, yeah,

Fraser McGruer:

oh, yeah, okay, yeah. There's so many questions

Fraser McGruer:

I want to ask, but look, go for it, Peter.

Peter Coghill:

Yeah. I think I'm gonna act as devil's advocate

Peter Coghill:

and challenge a very a number of different things about this

Peter Coghill:

premise. I don't think invention has disappeared, so I, but I and

Peter Coghill:

I can, I think we can challenge this, this, this assertion that

Peter Coghill:

it's moved from atoms to bits, that it's all now smartphones, I

Peter Coghill:

think that there's definitely, it definitely is the case, that

Peter Coghill:

there is lots of apps there, but I think there's also lots of

Peter Coghill:

physical invention going on. I think we can also challenge the

Peter Coghill:

premise that that's any necessarily a bad thing if that

Peter Coghill:

were the case?

Fraser McGruer:

Well, it's just boring, if, if that, I think

Fraser McGruer:

that's it. But anyway, yeah, fine, yeah, okay.

Peter Coghill:

So, so has the lone inventor disappeared?

Peter Coghill:

There's also something so i So, I think I'm going to change that

Peter Coghill:

to begin with. It's like, Well, did they ever really exist in

Peter Coghill:

the first place? You know, we, we held up a very, sort of

Peter Coghill:

relatively small number of people as being these great

Peter Coghill:

inventors of certain things, but a it's a small number of people.

Peter Coghill:

So I'm thinking like the Tim Berners Lees and the Edisons and

Peter Coghill:

the

Unknown:

Alexander Graham Bell and the right,

Peter Coghill:

influential right. But in many cases they

Peter Coghill:

weren't, weren't working completely on their own. You

Peter Coghill:

know, even, even Bell was not working. You know, Graham Bell,

Peter Coghill:

he had lots of assistants and people working on his Bell's

Peter Coghill:

telephone.

Nick Hare:

Yeah, perhaps he was more, I mean, they were perhaps

Nick Hare:

more like Steve

Peter Coghill:

Jobs, yeah, research lead than a lone

Peter Coghill:

inventor.

Fraser McGruer:

Maybe we're a bit skewed and projecting as

Fraser McGruer:

well by our Britishness, okay, that we like this idea of, you

Fraser McGruer:

know, amateurism, and not

Nick Hare:

sorry, just I, and I know this is the same era that

Nick Hare:

we've been talking about, which is the sort of 80s. But you

Nick Hare:

know, as a figure in in fiction, the kind of lone professor,

Nick Hare:

inventor guy was definitely a big thing when I was a kid, and

Nick Hare:

in a way that I don't see anymore. So you've got your, you

Nick Hare:

know, back to the future, of course, Doc Brown, 1985 there's

Nick Hare:

the dad in Gremlins who's more on the kind of innovations

Nick Hare:

catalogue line you've got.

Peter Coghill:

They're not, they're not hit. They're not

Peter Coghill:

heroes though, well, I mean, they're comical, but

Nick Hare:

I know, but based on an archetype that we all

Nick Hare:

understand, yeah, but so, so, but that archetype has

Nick Hare:

disappeared, like, what's an inventor now, really, the

Nick Hare:

closest thing, I think you'd have to say, is someone like a

Nick Hare:

kind of a kind of coder sitting in a cafe, black hat with, yeah,

Nick Hare:

that kind of, it's like, so let's go back. Peter gone, yeah,

Fraser McGruer:

so was it everything?

Peter Coghill:

Yes, it wasn't everything. And I don't think

Peter Coghill:

it's necessary. I think, you know, do we egg up the lone

Peter Coghill:

inventor as a more prevalent thing, or as a more important

Peter Coghill:

thing than it actually was? And I so I think we can challenge

Peter Coghill:

that and so there is actually, there's a bit, there's a mythos

Peter Coghill:

around inventors. Men in sheds and women in sheds have never

Peter Coghill:

actually been all that influential. They just make a

Peter Coghill:

good story, if you can say that,

Fraser McGruer:

what's a good example of something that was

Fraser McGruer:

invented,

Peter Coghill:

then Bell invented the telephone and Marco

Peter Coghill:

invented the radio. But he didn't. They did. They did. They

Peter Coghill:

they made the first kind of successful one. But there were

Peter Coghill:

lots of other versions beforehand that they kind of

Peter Coghill:

work, built on top of, and there were lots of other people around

Peter Coghill:

them, in their respective labs or companies or whatever that

Peter Coghill:

were helping them get there. So they weren't lone people in

Peter Coghill:

sheds.

Nick Hare:

But we just like, I suppose we like there is

Nick Hare:

something nice about the thought, yeah, someone, yes.

Peter Coghill:

There's a romantic, it's a remote there's

Peter Coghill:

a romanticism about having this lone per this lone hero can set

Peter Coghill:

this inventive hero who comes along and makes something quite

Peter Coghill:

amazing. So sorry, yeah, go on, Peter. So what I'm saying is

Peter Coghill:

they're not as influential as they could. It could be the case

Peter Coghill:

they were not as influential as they perhaps say it being as

Peter Coghill:

cultural, sort of Misty eyes looking back, they were, what

Peter Coghill:

about then?

Fraser McGruer:

And maybe this is what you about to go on to,

Fraser McGruer:

because I know there's a couple of things you're gonna say, but

Fraser McGruer:

one of them was, okay, perhaps the load inventor thing is not a

Fraser McGruer:

thing. But also, what about this thing of inventing things,

Fraser McGruer:

physical stuff, atoms versus bits. What's so do you have any

Fraser McGruer:

thoughts on that? Are we ready to move on to that? Yet? I've

Fraser McGruer:

got some data,

Peter Coghill:

yeah, we've got data, data, number of events or

Peter Coghill:

something, yeah.

Nick Hare:

Well, I've got so I looked at the pat the World

Nick Hare:

Intellectual Property organisation, yeah, which is a

Nick Hare:

UN agency, who kind of coordinate IP. So in other

Nick Hare:

words, they kind of, they kind of get patent registration data.

Nick Hare:

They don't themselves do that, but they gather the data and

Nick Hare:

they put it in one place, and they make it as incomprehensible

Nick Hare:

and impossible to query as you can possibly get. So I really

Nick Hare:

what I wanted to do was work out, well, how many patents are

Nick Hare:

issued to individuals versus and I. The only way to do that would

Nick Hare:

be to really I would have to take days of working out how

Nick Hare:

their API worked and downloading stuff, and so I didn't have time

Nick Hare:

to do it. But what I did could look at is the categories of

Nick Hare:

technology. So 35 top level technology categories, and

Nick Hare:

between 1980 and 2023 the biggest absolute growth in terms

Nick Hare:

of numbers of patents issued was in computer technology, digital

Nick Hare:

communication, electrical machinery. So it is obvious

Nick Hare:

that's the thing that has really seen the most growth in

Nick Hare:

patterns. So that perception is not entirely

Peter Coghill:

there's a bit of bias in computers are where it's

Peter Coghill:

at. Peter, yeah, there's a bit of bias, potentially, because

Peter Coghill:

there's a lot of money in that, right? I think we can, we can

Peter Coghill:

speculate also, number of patents is not the, not

Peter Coghill:

necessarily a great proxy for how culturally prevalent the

Peter Coghill:

technology,

Fraser McGruer:

no, but what's the patents that are not that

Fraser McGruer:

kind of stuff. So the lowest

Nick Hare:

absolute growth is nano tech, although that's

Nick Hare:

actually the highest potential percentage growth, because it

Nick Hare:

was hardly any in 1980 it was but things like, well, analysis

Nick Hare:

of biological materials, organic fine chemistry, machine tools

Nick Hare:

and materials. But the key thing is that even like computer

Nick Hare:

technology, the top category, still only 11% of all filings in

Nick Hare:

2023 right? So nine out of 10 patents aren't computer

Nick Hare:

technology. There's some other thing and and so I think what

Nick Hare:

I'm saying is, I think Peter's right, is that actually nine out

Nick Hare:

of 10 new inventions are a thing that does something. Now it

Nick Hare:

might be a boring thing, like a new battery or a new kind of

Nick Hare:

sensor or, I suppose, a new kind of drone wing. I mean, God, I

Nick Hare:

don't know what they are, but the point is, it's not true to

Nick Hare:

say that the majority of inventions these days just some

Nick Hare:

sort of computer technology, at least in terms of patents.

Peter Coghill:

Yeah, I challenge that. A new type of battery

Peter Coghill:

would be boring. You might find it exciting. Well, I mean, I

Peter Coghill:

think you would if, if it was explained to you thus, you know,

Peter Coghill:

imagine, like, well before lithium batteries, you didn't

Peter Coghill:

have, my God, he didn't have electric vehicles, because you

Peter Coghill:

just didn't have the power density. Whereas you would

Peter Coghill:

unlock a new type of battery, you can do all these new things.

Peter Coghill:

So if we unlocked another type of battery, which is 10 times,

Peter Coghill:

100 times the power density, we could do even more loads of cool

Peter Coghill:

things.

Nick Hare:

Yeah, batteries are actually more, much more. That

Nick Hare:

is,

Peter Coghill:

I've had a similar conversation with you

Peter Coghill:

about concrete, and then you agreed with me that was quite

Peter Coghill:

exciting.

Nick Hare:

Yeah, okay. I mean, you're an engineer, like you can

Nick Hare:

make everything exciting, yeah, so, and I think just more data

Nick Hare:

that sports Peters claims is a paper by the NBER Well, working

Nick Hare:

paper from 2005 which looked at, so I didn't, I couldn't get the

Nick Hare:

data first hand, but this looked at what kinds of entities are

Nick Hare:

getting patents issued to them. And interestingly, so they quite

Nick Hare:

a different perception to me. Well, it's not perception in

Nick Hare:

their case, it's actual data.

Peter Coghill:

Well, they collect the data and then they

Peter Coghill:

perceived, well, they

Nick Hare:

perceived it, yeah. And the they, according to this

Nick Hare:

analysis, the heyday of the individual inventor, at least in

Nick Hare:

the US, was the 19th century. Okay, actually, that begins to

Nick Hare:

make sense. And if you think about the sort of figure of

Nick Hare:

someone like Doc Brown, that he's a quite 19th century kind

Nick Hare:

of figure, and I think, you know, you think back to your

Nick Hare:

Jules Verne kind of exactly the Time Traveller in HG Wells and

Nick Hare:

so on and and so. And then, you know, increasingly, the trend

Nick Hare:

over the 20th Century was for inventors to basically work via

Nick Hare:

firms. So it looks like inventors being less of a thing

Nick Hare:

and firms being more of a thing. But then they make the point

Nick Hare:

that some of that is, is simply because firms. A lot of it is

Nick Hare:

people becoming employees of, you know, Bell Labs. But some of

Nick Hare:

it is Alexander Graham Bell setting up Bell Labs. And, you

Nick Hare:

know, so, so, I guess the idea is that you're seeing a

Nick Hare:

concentration of activity into firms because, you know,

Nick Hare:

increasingly you need higher capital requirements to make a

Nick Hare:

successful invention. You know that. And I think this goes back

Nick Hare:

to one of your explanations, Peter, is you're sort of saying

Nick Hare:

low hanging fruit. What you need to invent a telegraph is quite

Nick Hare:

different to what you need to invent an internet.

Fraser McGruer:

So if I've got this right, atoms versus bits is

Fraser McGruer:

actually good news. Peter, you're right. We're wrong. Okay,

Fraser McGruer:

that's the first one, yeah. Second inventors were a thing,

Fraser McGruer:

and hey, now they're not. And Peter going, I'm not so sure

Fraser McGruer:

about that. Peter's maybe right, but

Nick Hare:

actually, instead of the 1980s it was the 1880s So,

Nick Hare:

yeah,

Peter Coghill:

okay, hey, wait, headway, just on your own.

Nick Hare:

But I want to pick up something else. Peter said,

Nick Hare:

because Peter said, because I think actually it, you remember,

Nick Hare:

we've done, we did a podcast quite a long time ago about

Nick Hare:

where famous people have gone, like, it seems like you don't

Nick Hare:

get famous people anymore. And I think we identified that there

Nick Hare:

was this kind of sweet spot in the 60s when you had enough

Nick Hare:

media for there to be famous people at all. You know, instead

Nick Hare:

of just being heard of in one. Town. You're heard of

Nick Hare:

everywhere, but not enough media, certainly not enough

Nick Hare:

media that you can use in your bedroom to, you know, to get a

Nick Hare:

billion famous people, which is kind of what we have now, so

Nick Hare:

that, like, nobody's famous again, but because everyone's

Nick Hare:

famous, and I think to some extent, like, it is so much

Nick Hare:

easier to be an inventor at home. Now you can 3d print

Nick Hare:

parts. You can, you know, you can get a Arduino or a Raspberry

Nick Hare:

Pi. I can write computer programmes, you know, which do

Nick Hare:

things that are at home that I would never have been able to do

Nick Hare:

in the 80s. And just because it can download software libraries

Nick Hare:

or download data, and just, do you know, we, in a sense, like

Nick Hare:

everyone, there must be millions of people, if ever, if we

Nick Hare:

counted everyone uploading to Thingiverse or uploading to

Nick Hare:

GitHub as an inventor, then suddenly the world's full of

Nick Hare:

them. Yeah.

Peter Coghill:

And I think this thing worth pointing out is how

Peter Coghill:

democratised is. So they not only are there no fewer

Peter Coghill:

inventors there, I think there are many, many many more,

Peter Coghill:

because people have got more free time, more more spare cash,

Peter Coghill:

and all of these tools, all this infrastructure that didn't exist

Peter Coghill:

before GitHub, loads of code that you can use and reuse,

Peter Coghill:

loads of maker spaces, places, especially short, it's just

Peter Coghill:

absolutely swimming in them. Places you can go borrow a bench

Peter Coghill:

and some tools and some materials to make, to try out

Peter Coghill:

and make a thing and, and, yeah, you can buy a 3d printer for a

Peter Coghill:

few 100 quid, keep it at home. All these cool things,

Peter Coghill:

technology and infrastructure we've never had before means

Peter Coghill:

that invention is now within way more people's grasp than it used

Peter Coghill:

to be.

Fraser McGruer:

I feel the world's moving on without me.

Fraser McGruer:

I'm bit worried, because things like Thingiverse make a space,

Fraser McGruer:

and I kind of vaguely know about GitHub, but I just don't know

Fraser McGruer:

about any of this stuff.

Nick Hare:

Don't worry. It's not that you're not that kind of

Nick Hare:

inventor. You're that you're you're a different kind of

Nick Hare:

creator. Thank you. You're a creator of chaos and art, and

Nick Hare:

that's different. That's a different kind of thing. Yeah,

Nick Hare:

I'll take that. I think so a couple of other potential

Nick Hare:

economic things going on. So we talked about the, you know, the

Nick Hare:

fact that it's pot, it's plausible that to do invention

Nick Hare:

now has a higher kind of capital requirement that but, but I

Nick Hare:

think there's also the fact that the precipitous declining cost

Nick Hare:

of objects, really, you know, the manufacturing revolution of

Nick Hare:

the last 50 years. This is not appreciated, really, I think, to

Nick Hare:

the extent that it should be, but I don't, if you remember a

Nick Hare:

documentary, it's kind of a documentary stroke experiment,

Nick Hare:

probably about 15 years ago, where they made a family go

Nick Hare:

through a year a day, and that it was kind of a social

Nick Hare:

experiment where they gave that, I think they started in 1965 or

Nick Hare:

something, and they were given new technology as it came out.

Nick Hare:

And like, the first piece of technology was the teas made,

Nick Hare:

which is an alarm clock combined with making you a cup of tea.

Nick Hare:

Make a cup of tea, and then it wakes you up. Yeah, something

Nick Hare:

that not a silly combination, and it was, and it was something

Nick Hare:

like in today's money, 2000 pounds when it first came out,

Nick Hare:

something utterly preposterous, you know, and now, and I was

Nick Hare:

just so I looked at what my purchases have been, forget what

Nick Hare:

you would regard as gadgets over the last year. And they include

Nick Hare:

an electric kettle invented in 1891 a beard trimmer invented in

Nick Hare:

1898 an e cigarette. 2003 a rice cooker, invented in 1956 carbon

Nick Hare:

monoxide detector, boring, but useful. The modern ones were

Nick Hare:

came out in the 1990s hole punch, 1886 that one battery

Nick Hare:

tester, apparently not, not commercialised till 1980s a

Nick Hare:

Water Flosser for my teeth, wireless microphones, pH

Nick Hare:

detector strips and some LED bulbs. Now, a lot of these,

Nick Hare:

these are all things that would have been quite an outlay 40

Nick Hare:

years ago. These would be things that would cost you a

Nick Hare:

substantial amount of money, and they're all basically nothing

Nick Hare:

these days. You know, you can just get them for nothing on the

Nick Hare:

internet and and I just think we don't, maybe just do not

Nick Hare:

appreciate how many fabulous gadgets we're surrounded by, to

Nick Hare:

the extent that we just sort of forget about them and don't

Nick Hare:

notice how many brilliant things there are in our kitchens and

Nick Hare:

living rooms doing cool stuff. What's a Water Flosser? It's

Nick Hare:

basically like a little squirty water jet that that does the job

Nick Hare:

of flossing, but uses water instead of floss. I wouldn't

Nick Hare:

recommend it, to be honest. Okay, this hasn't changed my

Nick Hare:

life.

Fraser McGruer:

Okay, okay. So yeah, we're actually surrounded

Fraser McGruer:

by loads of cool stuff. Yeah, I reckon, yeah, yeah. What do we

Fraser McGruer:

got? Where are we going with this? So we were talking about

Fraser McGruer:

the low hanging fruit stuff, which is, hey, there's a reason

Fraser McGruer:

why individual inventors is not a thing anymore. Because for one

Fraser McGruer:

person just to get the easy stuff is easy, and so they did

Peter Coghill:

it. Yeah, right. Go on. Then. So, yeah, take,

Nick Hare:

sorry, just the radical, the really big

Nick Hare:

inventions have been invented. I think that's the argument that,

Nick Hare:

you know, yes, a. Loan inventors can create new little,

Nick Hare:

interesting shapes and maybe a new software. Oh, I'm sorry,

Nick Hare:

but, but, you know, so there's more people inventing software

Nick Hare:

now than many, more than there were 30 years ago. But there's

Nick Hare:

fewer people invent it, or at least they're more concentrated.

Nick Hare:

They're in large firms inventing the equivalent of penicillin.

Nick Hare:

Yeah, because the big stuff's been done. Yeah.

Peter Coghill:

So, I mean, following this follow, I think

Peter Coghill:

following a case study is helpful, considering the lithium

Peter Coghill:

ion battery, right? So, loves

Fraser McGruer:

these things batteries, because it's, oh,

Fraser McGruer:

this is so exciting. I can't

Peter Coghill:

wait, because it's because it's kind of

Peter Coghill:

pivotal, right? So it was early 80s, whether where the

Peter Coghill:

breakthroughs in the chemistry were made. I mean, the chemistry

Peter Coghill:

was always, was, was understood up to then, what they, what the

Peter Coghill:

chemists then, who are, who were Nobel Prize laureates of good

Peter Coghill:

enough, Whittingham and Yoshino, they, they get science names,

Peter Coghill:

three, three people, I think two of them were working the same

Peter Coghill:

group, and one Yoshino, was independent in working

Peter Coghill:

independently in Japan, but they, but they was it was

Peter Coghill:

stabilising it so that it could be put into a manufacturable

Peter Coghill:

format. That where they where their breakthrough came. But

Peter Coghill:

before the 1980s you didn't have lithium batteries. And after

Peter Coghill:

that, after the 80s, you did have lithium batteries that, as

Peter Coghill:

we said, kicked off lots of different mobile devices that

Peter Coghill:

were otherwise not sort of feasible. But since then, you've

Peter Coghill:

had continuous, but fairly incremental improvements on that

Peter Coghill:

design. So it feels like there was a lithium and battery

Peter Coghill:

problem. They solved it. But now we haven't that they've picked

Peter Coghill:

that fruit. The next fruit is the next battery. Fruit is much

Peter Coghill:

higher up and it's harder to get. Yeah, so it's three

Peter Coghill:

people's effort made this thing work, versus the billions of

Peter Coghill:

pounds of investment per year and millions and millions of

Peter Coghill:

person hours that go into what's the next thing after the theme

Peter Coghill:

battery, 100, you know, loads of loads of institutions are

Peter Coghill:

pursuing that because it's such a big deal.

Fraser McGruer:

So what I was about to say is, what I think

Fraser McGruer:

you were saying is that incrementalism is less dramatic

Fraser McGruer:

and less interesting. But it sounds to me that you're quite

Fraser McGruer:

interested in actually, yeah. But so incrementalism,

Peter Coghill:

yeah, and other things standing like the

Peter Coghill:

microchips, you know, the the going from the transistor to the

Peter Coghill:

microchip was quite a big jump. Even the transistor was quite a

Peter Coghill:

bit. It was, was, was, but getting the transistor was quite

Peter Coghill:

a sort of small effort, a couple of people working on that bell

Peter Coghill:

labs, I think. But then to get the transit, to get the once

Peter Coghill:

you, once you've got that jump, once you've done that jump to a

Peter Coghill:

microchip, you've got incremental improvements again,

Peter Coghill:

kind of year on year, they double in capacity and things,

Peter Coghill:

and

Nick Hare:

I suppose so the the thing, or incrementally

Nick Hare:

improving again, each improvement is going to, you

Nick Hare:

would assume, be harder and harder, yeah, but it but, but

Nick Hare:

also for the field of kind of new potential, new the new

Nick Hare:

transistor or the microchip, or the new innovative thing. What's

Nick Hare:

after themselves? Yeah. Are also getting harder to Yeah. But, I

Nick Hare:

mean, I think there's that yeah, so that it sort of feels like

Nick Hare:

there's

Peter Coghill:

even a law for it. There's a law for it. Oh

Peter Coghill:

god. E rooms law, which I've never heard of. It's kind of the

Peter Coghill:

inverse of Moore's law. What's Moore's law? Don't worry about

Peter Coghill:

Moore's law, because we're not talking about that is, let me

Peter Coghill:

look him up. So he was Laura, sort of, the is, is an

Peter Coghill:

observation that the cost of specifically in drug discovery,

Peter Coghill:

doubles every nine years. Wow, in pharma, just because it's

Peter Coghill:

harder to get progress because you've done all the easy things,

Nick Hare:

yeah, I think, and I think there's some, there's

Nick Hare:

something else as well, which I think is probably related to

Nick Hare:

this thing I was saying about the precipitous decline of

Nick Hare:

gadgets, which is the how, just quite how much invention is

Nick Hare:

effectively free, right? So, you know, if you invent a new, cool

Nick Hare:

shape and you upload it to Thingiverse, it's kind of free.

Nick Hare:

Most GitHub, you put things on GitHub, you've created something

Nick Hare:

new, and it's free. Ai, you know, models are basically free.

Nick Hare:

Like so much stuff is free that what previously would have been

Nick Hare:

pursued, it might have been a massive project that a company

Nick Hare:

like Microsoft might have done to produce something which I can

Nick Hare:

just download for free now, and because, you know, because it

Nick Hare:

would be monetizable, because you could make tonnes of money

Nick Hare:

off it, now it's much harder to do that off the kinds of things.

Nick Hare:

So what we're saying is there's a lot more.

Peter Coghill:

Just download, if you try and monetize your shape

Peter Coghill:

exactly, download a symbol, someone

Nick Hare:

else will make a shape exactly the same and

Nick Hare:

upload that for free. So it sort of feels like, okay, you've got

Nick Hare:

the fact that these things are just not as valuable as they

Nick Hare:

used to be, combined with the fact that you're increasingly

Nick Hare:

getting to more and more costly things to create, sort of just,

Nick Hare:

I think, more or less, explains how you can have both much more

Nick Hare:

creation and invention, and at the same time it be harder and

Nick Hare:

harder to create the genuinely new breakthrough. Yeah. So,

Nick Hare:

yeah, makes sense. I think we've actually more or less closed

Nick Hare:

this off. One thing, I think, which is undeniable, and I think

Nick Hare:

we've covered all the reasons for it, but which is, I think,

Nick Hare:

is a bit sad, is that I don't think people are as excited

Nick Hare:

about technology as they used to be. And I think you know that

Nick Hare:

that certainly the 80s, to me, was a real high point for being

Nick Hare:

excited about and as Peter is so rightly reminding us, there's a

Nick Hare:

lot of exciting things out there being invented, new stuff, a lot

Nick Hare:

of it, maybe it's not like as consumer focused as it used to

Nick Hare:

be, if it's a new gadget, but it, you know, it's sad that we

Nick Hare:

when I was a kid, space was a big thing, you know, Carl Sagan

Nick Hare:

and and the space shuttle and all that, space is a big thing

Nick Hare:

now, yeah, like, space is bloody amazing, and we're and we're

Nick Hare:

massively low themselves. I know it's incredible, and yet, kids

Nick Hare:

are just, you know, it's not like, it's a big thing, like it

Nick Hare:

used to be. I mean, we, you know, my dad used to take me to

Nick Hare:

the Science Museum to go and see the space exhibition. It was

Nick Hare:

like, this is we're going to be all on the moon in 30 years now,

Nick Hare:

we might actually end up on the moon in 30 years time. It's much

Nick Hare:

more plausible now than it was then. And yet we just sort of

Nick Hare:

go, oh yeah, okay, another, another rocket, whatever. So

Nick Hare:

it's, you know, I don't know. It's just, it would be nice to

Nick Hare:

get some of that

Peter Coghill:

excitement back. Maybe it's become too routine,

Peter Coghill:

because there's so much of it,

Nick Hare:

because there's so much of it, I suspect that's it

Nick Hare:

has the idea of new technology become so ubiquitous that it's

Nick Hare:

boring.

Fraser McGruer:

So look two questions. I think they're both

Fraser McGruer:

great. First one, what's the most disappointing technology

Fraser McGruer:

that you've ever used or been gifted? You know, is a good

Fraser McGruer:

question. You might have been either excited about a song,

Fraser McGruer:

gave you something like, oh, and then usually like, well, this is

Fraser McGruer:

crap. That's the first question. Second thing, I'm quite

Fraser McGruer:

interested you sound like inventors to me, because you

Fraser McGruer:

were talking about this thingy, things, whatever it's called,

Fraser McGruer:

and get Yeah, and GitHub, or whatever. It sounds like you do

Fraser McGruer:

stuff, yeah. Sounds like you do stuff, and you do codes and

Fraser McGruer:

things and load it and stuff, and what have you made? Because

Fraser McGruer:

I need to get in on this. I don't I have no idea. So I'd

Fraser McGruer:

like to know, what have you done. And obviously I've got no

Fraser McGruer:

answer for that second one, but the first one, I do two good

Fraser McGruer:

questions.

Nick Hare:

Well, you mainly invented Cesaro Ecko. That was

Nick Hare:

very cool, mainly cobbled together from parts of other

Nick Hare:

things, but there wasn't anything that did that unplug

Nick Hare:

Cicero's echo. I'm all ears.

Peter Coghill:

Yeah. So we so Nick had an idea to have a

Peter Coghill:

active, dynamic and context aware picture for a picture that

Peter Coghill:

responds to your board game session. So you'd have an open

Peter Coghill:

you have an open mic that's listening to the conversation,

Peter Coghill:

and it would this pick the screen would render your an

Peter Coghill:

image that's in some way representative or appropriate

Peter Coghill:

for for your

Nick Hare:

game all using off the shelf pre training, yeah.

Peter Coghill:

So we So, so I built this thing that captured

Peter Coghill:

audio, transcribed the audio, sent it to an image generator

Peter Coghill:

with a bunch of prompts and and gave you an image back. Yeah.

Peter Coghill:

And it was quite fun. It worked really well.

Nick Hare:

What have you invented? Well, I was, I've

Nick Hare:

been, over the summer, I worked on a, worked on a software

Nick Hare:

framework called Falcon, which is for training, specifically

Nick Hare:

for training board game playing AIs. And so it's, it's

Nick Hare:

basically, instead of being in the past, I've trained AIS to

Nick Hare:

play specific board games, right? So, you know, to just

Nick Hare:

simple ones, your kind of Noughts and Crosses and ultimate

Nick Hare:

Noughts and Crosses, various other things that I've trained

Nick Hare:

and it, I always, always do it, and I go, Oh, it's so annoying.

Nick Hare:

I'm doing the same things that I did last time. I'm going to

Nick Hare:

build a software framework to do it. So I've got loads of

Nick Hare:

components right in this kind of framework, and they kind of

Nick Hare:

handle all the all the tedious stuff. So basically, you code

Nick Hare:

your code for the just for the board game, and a few other

Nick Hare:

things, and you put them in there, and it then does all the

Nick Hare:

training itself. It generates the data, and it trains the new

Nick Hare:

models and all that. Like with nearly all my projects, it's not

Nick Hare:

finished yet, but it's a lot more advanced than I would have

Nick Hare:

predicted. Are you saying you created a trainer for your

Nick Hare:

creative thing that is going to that that can be that you can

Nick Hare:

use to very easily create board game. AI's right? So it's based

Nick Hare:

on, it's based on kind of neural network, which I

Peter Coghill:

just realised that my answer was the invent,

Peter Coghill:

my invention that Nick was most proud of.

Fraser McGruer:

Ah, okay, good.

Peter Coghill:

Another, recent one. It's hardly an invention,

Peter Coghill:

really, but I was, I was pleased with how quick it was to make.

Peter Coghill:

So I made a thing that simply downloads a calendar from the

Peter Coghill:

UCI website that's in a weird format and publishes it as a

Peter Coghill:

calendar. So really basic bit of data manipulation it took me

Peter Coghill:

and. About 10 minutes to get

Fraser McGruer:

that working. Well, so you invented a

Fraser McGruer:

calendar. I didn't quite understand.

Peter Coghill:

I meant it's hardly an invention. It was just

Peter Coghill:

all I've done is republish information from one website

Peter Coghill:

onto another, well,

Nick Hare:

in a useless form into a useful

Peter Coghill:

Yeah, from a useless form into a useful form.

Peter Coghill:

And it took all of the thing I'm proud of is the fact that it

Peter Coghill:

took me 10 minutes to make

Fraser McGruer:

it, Okay, nice. I've realised in in much the

Fraser McGruer:

same way, that your might not be an invention. I've got an

Fraser McGruer:

invention that you might say that's not invention, but I

Fraser McGruer:

think it is, which is, as we get older, all of us wear glasses,

Fraser McGruer:

okay? And sometimes, as we get older, we need, sort of, you

Fraser McGruer:

know, our near vision. We get sort of long sighted, right? And

Fraser McGruer:

I don't want to look like some old grand some old granny with

Fraser McGruer:

sort of bifocals or very focused, anything like that,

Fraser McGruer:

even very focused, I think I'm not keen on those. And also that

Fraser McGruer:

costs stuff, right? So if you've already got two pairs of

Fraser McGruer:

glasses, and

Unknown:

Yeah, where's this going?

Fraser McGruer:

And so you're both sure you're both short

Fraser McGruer:

sighted and long sighted. You just put them both on, okay, at

Fraser McGruer:

the same time, right? So there you are watching TV, and you

Fraser McGruer:

need, oh no, I'm short sighted. I need my short sighted glasses

Fraser McGruer:

to watch TV.

Peter Coghill:

Okay, I've got, I've got an improvement for you.

Peter Coghill:

Well, this is

Fraser McGruer:

the thing, is what we're talking about. So I

Fraser McGruer:

have the big discovery, yeah. And then you sort of

Fraser McGruer:

incrementally, yeah, refine it, yeah. But then just a one day,

Fraser McGruer:

and I just started putting on my these glasses for when I need to

Fraser McGruer:

read stuff, but then I want to sort of look down here and look

Fraser McGruer:

up the TV down, pushing them down onto your nose like that.

Fraser McGruer:

No, no, no. But you wear both glasses at the same time, okay,

Fraser McGruer:

but the RE Why would you do that? Right? Well, the reason

Fraser McGruer:

why is because you don't want to look stupid. Because you don't

Fraser McGruer:

look stupid. You don't look like some old person with very vocals

Fraser McGruer:

and things like that, or have the cost of getting an extra

Fraser McGruer:

pair of glasses when you've already got two. And if you want

Fraser McGruer:

to go further, you could even sort of time together with like

Fraser McGruer:

an elastic band or something. And I have actually spent more

Fraser McGruer:

hours sitting down, as I have just described, than you would

Fraser McGruer:

imagine, two pairs of glasses online. George, you want an

Fraser McGruer:

improvement? Well, I'm open to suggestion,

Nick Hare:

or, yeah, I think you'll be annoyed if you try and

Nick Hare:

improve it. Go on, put in with it,

Peter Coghill:

pop out a lens from each one, and have a long

Peter Coghill:

sighted lens and a short sighted lens in one frame, and then just

Peter Coghill:

close one eye,

Unknown:

one long

Peter Coghill:

side, eye, one short side. I

Fraser McGruer:

think you should keep to see things and keep on

Fraser McGruer:

uploading stuff that to that. And I'll stick to keep with this

Fraser McGruer:

stuff,

Unknown:

optics, advanced optics, it's Fraser's area.

Unknown:

Yeah, that's

Fraser McGruer:

all we've got time for today. You've been

Fraser McGruer:

listening to the cognitive engineering podcast brought to

Fraser McGruer:

you by Aleph Insights and produced by me, Fraser McGruer,

Fraser McGruer:

if you haven't already, please like and subscribe. We try and

Fraser McGruer:

release an episode every week or two. If there are topics you'd

Fraser McGruer:

like us to cover, please do get in touch. You can find out more

Fraser McGruer:

about Aleph Insights at Alephinsights.com many thanks

Fraser McGruer:

for listening until next time. Goodbye.

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