Where did all the eccentric inventors go? The men (and women) in sheds, the gadgets with flashing lights, the sense that the future was arriving one bizarre prototype at a time. In this episode of the Cognitive Engineering Podcast, the panel ask whether invention has become boring — or whether our idea of invention is simply out of date.
Starting with Tomorrow’s World, the Innovations catalogue and the golden age of gadgetry, the conversation moves into patents, capital intensity, incremental progress and the shift from lone inventors to teams, firms and platforms. Along the way, the hosts explore whether innovation has moved from atoms to bits, whether low-hanging fruit has already been picked, and why we might be surrounded by astonishing technology while feeling less excited than ever.
The episode closes with personal “inventions”, disappointing gadgets, and a reminder that creativity may be more democratised now than at any point in history — even if it no longer looks like a bearded professor wheeling something dangerous into a TV studio.
The Cognitive Engineering Podcast explores decision-making, technology, creativity and complex systems through thoughtful, wide-ranging conversations. New episodes are released every week or two.
For more information on Aleph Insights visit our website https://alephinsights.com or to get in touch about our podcast email podcast@alephinsights.com
A few things we mentioned in this podcast:
- The Innovations Catalogue http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/2957409.stm
- Decline of the Independent Inventor https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w11654/w11654.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com
- The ‘bungling inventor’ trope https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/BunglingInventor
Hello and welcome to the Cognitive
Fraser McGruer:Engineering podcast, brought to you by Aleph Insights and
Fraser McGruer:produced by me, Fraser McGruer. I'm here with Nick Hare and
Fraser McGruer:Peter Coghill of Aleph Insights on this podcast, we look at a
Fraser McGruer:wide range of topics, and today we're asking the question, Where
Fraser McGruer:have all the inventors gone? Hey, Nick, where have all the
Fraser McGruer:inventors gone?
Nick Hare:Yeah, do you remember Fraser, you're we're all of a
Nick Hare:similar age and age. And when I was a kid, one of my favourite
Nick Hare:ever programmes was Tomorrow's World. And I think I was first
Nick Hare:introduced to it at the age of about four. What's Tomorrow's
Nick Hare:World? Well, it was a programme that ran from 1965 to 2003 and
Nick Hare:it was, it was a, basically a programme about new and future
Nick Hare:technology that was coming online. And the, I mean, one of
Nick Hare:the gimmicks, I suppose, of the programme was that it was live.
Nick Hare:Was it live? Yeah, it was live until, right up until the late
Nick Hare:90s, it was live. And obviously it lost something, and it
Nick Hare:stopped being live. And of course, that meant half the time
Nick Hare:the things wouldn't work, the robots would kind of go wrong or
Nick Hare:fall over or whatever. Yeah. But the point is, it was didn't stop
Nick Hare:it being, I thought absolutely like, so exciting to see these
Nick Hare:inventions that would be on screen, and maybe in a year or
Nick Hare:two's time, you could have them at home. And so some of the,
Nick Hare:some of the key things that were demonstrated on there was the
Nick Hare:home computer. Do you want to guess when that was first
Nick Hare:demonstrated?
Fraser McGruer:So size 65 computer, yeah, the home
Fraser McGruer:computer, 1969
Nick Hare:67 not bad. How about the ATM and Chip and PIN
Nick Hare:technology?
Fraser McGruer:I would say similar. Yeah. 69
Nick Hare:digital watch, 1972 the CD player, 1981 mobile
Nick Hare:phone, 1979 all now things we're quite familiar with, and in some
Nick Hare:cases, which are now obsolete as a CD player, yeah. So, as I
Nick Hare:said, it was always broadcast live. But the thing is, it was
Nick Hare:just really exciting. And what they demonstrated, you know, was
Nick Hare:a bunch of tech. And what's technology is things with
Nick Hare:flashing lights on, with knobs, keys, things that did stuff they
Nick Hare:would move or flash or walk about, and it was cancelled,
Nick Hare:apparently, according to the BBC, just through eventually,
Nick Hare:the viewing figures just tailed off, right? So for some reason,
Nick Hare:people just got bored of seeing future technology in the early
Nick Hare:2000s and then I thought, well, hang on. Do you remember the
Nick Hare:innovations catalogue also cancelled in 2003 what's the
Nick Hare:innovations? Oh, the innovations catalogue was it a brilliant
Nick Hare:little magazine that was published from 1985 up till 2003
Nick Hare:and was included in Sunday papers. And it had all these
Nick Hare:brilliant gadgets in right things like light up slippers,
Nick Hare:revolving tie racks, a spider arm's length spider catching
Nick Hare:device, potato powered clocks. No, they weren't all ridiculous.
Nick Hare:Actually, there was the Dyson vacuum cleaner was. And the
Nick Hare:thing I always wanted, which was the most expensive thing, which
Nick Hare:was a laser display device you'd plug into your Hi Fi, and it
Nick Hare:would do like, laser patterns on your ceiling and tied to the
Nick Hare:music cool. It was all stuff like that, like ranging from,
Nick Hare:you know, a fiver through to sort of 1500 quid and and again,
Nick Hare:it was, it was sort of everyone used to make fun of it, because
Nick Hare:some of them were just utterly ridiculous. A lot of them were
Nick Hare:just randomly combining two things, like, you know, this is
Nick Hare:a pen that also tells the time, or this is, you know, a
Nick Hare:dictionary that also makes you a cup of coffee or whatever. But
Nick Hare:there was something fun about this idea of gadgets, like in
Nick Hare:there was futuristic gadgety stuff. Anyway, it does feel to
Nick Hare:me that these days, technology is basically smartphone apps.
Nick Hare:And, you know, I sort of think, well, what would tomorrow's
Nick Hare:world be like now it would just be, well, here's another
Nick Hare:smartphone app that does something useful, you know,
Nick Hare:because kind of boring. So, is it true? How's technology am i
Nick Hare:Is it a misperception that innovation has stopped being
Nick Hare:interesting gadgets? You know? Is it the case that inventors,
Nick Hare:you know, the kind of people would come on with the beard,
Nick Hare:Professor, somebody or other, you know, you don't really hear
Nick Hare:about them anymore. You do hear about Elon Musk and you know
Nick Hare:people like Jeff Bezos, but they're business guys, like the
Nick Hare:nutty inventor types. Where have they gone? Basically,
Nick Hare:technology. Is it boring? Or am I just, am I just, is it rose
Nick Hare:tinted spectacles? Great question.
Fraser McGruer:Didn't wasn't it on Tomorrow's World? They had
Fraser McGruer:that one particular inventor guy who would come along every now
Fraser McGruer:and again. I'm sure he on Blue Peter, so maybe this would help.
Fraser McGruer:So I remember he had this really cool invention for getting rid
Fraser McGruer:of worms, I think, in your garden, and it was to cycle
Fraser McGruer:around. Actually, you kind of want worms in your cycle. But
Fraser McGruer:anyway, he what he did. He had this tricycle or bicycle that he
Fraser McGruer:cycled around his garden that had, he'd, he'd tied something
Fraser McGruer:tinkly to the wheels that imitated, if you were a worm,
Fraser McGruer:would sound exactly like rain, and worms don't like rain, so
Fraser McGruer:they get drowned. Apparently, they'll all come out, and that's
Fraser McGruer:how you get rid of your worms. Do you know who this
Nick Hare:guy is? That's precisely the kind of thing I'm
Nick Hare:talking about. Yeah. See, nowadays it would just be a
Nick Hare:smartphone app that played the sound of a tinker. There'll be
Nick Hare:no tricycle with bells on, yeah,
Fraser McGruer:oh, yeah, okay, yeah. There's so many questions
Fraser McGruer:I want to ask, but look, go for it, Peter.
Peter Coghill:Yeah. I think I'm gonna act as devil's advocate
Peter Coghill:and challenge a very a number of different things about this
Peter Coghill:premise. I don't think invention has disappeared, so I, but I and
Peter Coghill:I can, I think we can challenge this, this, this assertion that
Peter Coghill:it's moved from atoms to bits, that it's all now smartphones, I
Peter Coghill:think that there's definitely, it definitely is the case, that
Peter Coghill:there is lots of apps there, but I think there's also lots of
Peter Coghill:physical invention going on. I think we can also challenge the
Peter Coghill:premise that that's any necessarily a bad thing if that
Peter Coghill:were the case?
Fraser McGruer:Well, it's just boring, if, if that, I think
Fraser McGruer:that's it. But anyway, yeah, fine, yeah, okay.
Peter Coghill:So, so has the lone inventor disappeared?
Peter Coghill:There's also something so i So, I think I'm going to change that
Peter Coghill:to begin with. It's like, Well, did they ever really exist in
Peter Coghill:the first place? You know, we, we held up a very, sort of
Peter Coghill:relatively small number of people as being these great
Peter Coghill:inventors of certain things, but a it's a small number of people.
Peter Coghill:So I'm thinking like the Tim Berners Lees and the Edisons and
Peter Coghill:the
Unknown:Alexander Graham Bell and the right,
Peter Coghill:influential right. But in many cases they
Peter Coghill:weren't, weren't working completely on their own. You
Peter Coghill:know, even, even Bell was not working. You know, Graham Bell,
Peter Coghill:he had lots of assistants and people working on his Bell's
Peter Coghill:telephone.
Nick Hare:Yeah, perhaps he was more, I mean, they were perhaps
Nick Hare:more like Steve
Peter Coghill:Jobs, yeah, research lead than a lone
Peter Coghill:inventor.
Fraser McGruer:Maybe we're a bit skewed and projecting as
Fraser McGruer:well by our Britishness, okay, that we like this idea of, you
Fraser McGruer:know, amateurism, and not
Nick Hare:sorry, just I, and I know this is the same era that
Nick Hare:we've been talking about, which is the sort of 80s. But you
Nick Hare:know, as a figure in in fiction, the kind of lone professor,
Nick Hare:inventor guy was definitely a big thing when I was a kid, and
Nick Hare:in a way that I don't see anymore. So you've got your, you
Nick Hare:know, back to the future, of course, Doc Brown, 1985 there's
Nick Hare:the dad in Gremlins who's more on the kind of innovations
Nick Hare:catalogue line you've got.
Peter Coghill:They're not, they're not hit. They're not
Peter Coghill:heroes though, well, I mean, they're comical, but
Nick Hare:I know, but based on an archetype that we all
Nick Hare:understand, yeah, but so, so, but that archetype has
Nick Hare:disappeared, like, what's an inventor now, really, the
Nick Hare:closest thing, I think you'd have to say, is someone like a
Nick Hare:kind of a kind of coder sitting in a cafe, black hat with, yeah,
Nick Hare:that kind of, it's like, so let's go back. Peter gone, yeah,
Fraser McGruer:so was it everything?
Peter Coghill:Yes, it wasn't everything. And I don't think
Peter Coghill:it's necessary. I think, you know, do we egg up the lone
Peter Coghill:inventor as a more prevalent thing, or as a more important
Peter Coghill:thing than it actually was? And I so I think we can challenge
Peter Coghill:that and so there is actually, there's a bit, there's a mythos
Peter Coghill:around inventors. Men in sheds and women in sheds have never
Peter Coghill:actually been all that influential. They just make a
Peter Coghill:good story, if you can say that,
Fraser McGruer:what's a good example of something that was
Fraser McGruer:invented,
Peter Coghill:then Bell invented the telephone and Marco
Peter Coghill:invented the radio. But he didn't. They did. They did. They
Peter Coghill:they made the first kind of successful one. But there were
Peter Coghill:lots of other versions beforehand that they kind of
Peter Coghill:work, built on top of, and there were lots of other people around
Peter Coghill:them, in their respective labs or companies or whatever that
Peter Coghill:were helping them get there. So they weren't lone people in
Peter Coghill:sheds.
Nick Hare:But we just like, I suppose we like there is
Nick Hare:something nice about the thought, yeah, someone, yes.
Peter Coghill:There's a romantic, it's a remote there's
Peter Coghill:a romanticism about having this lone per this lone hero can set
Peter Coghill:this inventive hero who comes along and makes something quite
Peter Coghill:amazing. So sorry, yeah, go on, Peter. So what I'm saying is
Peter Coghill:they're not as influential as they could. It could be the case
Peter Coghill:they were not as influential as they perhaps say it being as
Peter Coghill:cultural, sort of Misty eyes looking back, they were, what
Peter Coghill:about then?
Fraser McGruer:And maybe this is what you about to go on to,
Fraser McGruer:because I know there's a couple of things you're gonna say, but
Fraser McGruer:one of them was, okay, perhaps the load inventor thing is not a
Fraser McGruer:thing. But also, what about this thing of inventing things,
Fraser McGruer:physical stuff, atoms versus bits. What's so do you have any
Fraser McGruer:thoughts on that? Are we ready to move on to that? Yet? I've
Fraser McGruer:got some data,
Peter Coghill:yeah, we've got data, data, number of events or
Peter Coghill:something, yeah.
Nick Hare:Well, I've got so I looked at the pat the World
Nick Hare:Intellectual Property organisation, yeah, which is a
Nick Hare:UN agency, who kind of coordinate IP. So in other
Nick Hare:words, they kind of, they kind of get patent registration data.
Nick Hare:They don't themselves do that, but they gather the data and
Nick Hare:they put it in one place, and they make it as incomprehensible
Nick Hare:and impossible to query as you can possibly get. So I really
Nick Hare:what I wanted to do was work out, well, how many patents are
Nick Hare:issued to individuals versus and I. The only way to do that would
Nick Hare:be to really I would have to take days of working out how
Nick Hare:their API worked and downloading stuff, and so I didn't have time
Nick Hare:to do it. But what I did could look at is the categories of
Nick Hare:technology. So 35 top level technology categories, and
Nick Hare:between 1980 and 2023 the biggest absolute growth in terms
Nick Hare:of numbers of patents issued was in computer technology, digital
Nick Hare:communication, electrical machinery. So it is obvious
Nick Hare:that's the thing that has really seen the most growth in
Nick Hare:patterns. So that perception is not entirely
Peter Coghill:there's a bit of bias in computers are where it's
Peter Coghill:at. Peter, yeah, there's a bit of bias, potentially, because
Peter Coghill:there's a lot of money in that, right? I think we can, we can
Peter Coghill:speculate also, number of patents is not the, not
Peter Coghill:necessarily a great proxy for how culturally prevalent the
Peter Coghill:technology,
Fraser McGruer:no, but what's the patents that are not that
Fraser McGruer:kind of stuff. So the lowest
Nick Hare:absolute growth is nano tech, although that's
Nick Hare:actually the highest potential percentage growth, because it
Nick Hare:was hardly any in 1980 it was but things like, well, analysis
Nick Hare:of biological materials, organic fine chemistry, machine tools
Nick Hare:and materials. But the key thing is that even like computer
Nick Hare:technology, the top category, still only 11% of all filings in
Nick Hare:2023 right? So nine out of 10 patents aren't computer
Nick Hare:technology. There's some other thing and and so I think what
Nick Hare:I'm saying is, I think Peter's right, is that actually nine out
Nick Hare:of 10 new inventions are a thing that does something. Now it
Nick Hare:might be a boring thing, like a new battery or a new kind of
Nick Hare:sensor or, I suppose, a new kind of drone wing. I mean, God, I
Nick Hare:don't know what they are, but the point is, it's not true to
Nick Hare:say that the majority of inventions these days just some
Nick Hare:sort of computer technology, at least in terms of patents.
Peter Coghill:Yeah, I challenge that. A new type of battery
Peter Coghill:would be boring. You might find it exciting. Well, I mean, I
Peter Coghill:think you would if, if it was explained to you thus, you know,
Peter Coghill:imagine, like, well before lithium batteries, you didn't
Peter Coghill:have, my God, he didn't have electric vehicles, because you
Peter Coghill:just didn't have the power density. Whereas you would
Peter Coghill:unlock a new type of battery, you can do all these new things.
Peter Coghill:So if we unlocked another type of battery, which is 10 times,
Peter Coghill:100 times the power density, we could do even more loads of cool
Peter Coghill:things.
Nick Hare:Yeah, batteries are actually more, much more. That
Nick Hare:is,
Peter Coghill:I've had a similar conversation with you
Peter Coghill:about concrete, and then you agreed with me that was quite
Peter Coghill:exciting.
Nick Hare:Yeah, okay. I mean, you're an engineer, like you can
Nick Hare:make everything exciting, yeah, so, and I think just more data
Nick Hare:that sports Peters claims is a paper by the NBER Well, working
Nick Hare:paper from 2005 which looked at, so I didn't, I couldn't get the
Nick Hare:data first hand, but this looked at what kinds of entities are
Nick Hare:getting patents issued to them. And interestingly, so they quite
Nick Hare:a different perception to me. Well, it's not perception in
Nick Hare:their case, it's actual data.
Peter Coghill:Well, they collect the data and then they
Peter Coghill:perceived, well, they
Nick Hare:perceived it, yeah. And the they, according to this
Nick Hare:analysis, the heyday of the individual inventor, at least in
Nick Hare:the US, was the 19th century. Okay, actually, that begins to
Nick Hare:make sense. And if you think about the sort of figure of
Nick Hare:someone like Doc Brown, that he's a quite 19th century kind
Nick Hare:of figure, and I think, you know, you think back to your
Nick Hare:Jules Verne kind of exactly the Time Traveller in HG Wells and
Nick Hare:so on and and so. And then, you know, increasingly, the trend
Nick Hare:over the 20th Century was for inventors to basically work via
Nick Hare:firms. So it looks like inventors being less of a thing
Nick Hare:and firms being more of a thing. But then they make the point
Nick Hare:that some of that is, is simply because firms. A lot of it is
Nick Hare:people becoming employees of, you know, Bell Labs. But some of
Nick Hare:it is Alexander Graham Bell setting up Bell Labs. And, you
Nick Hare:know, so, so, I guess the idea is that you're seeing a
Nick Hare:concentration of activity into firms because, you know,
Nick Hare:increasingly you need higher capital requirements to make a
Nick Hare:successful invention. You know that. And I think this goes back
Nick Hare:to one of your explanations, Peter, is you're sort of saying
Nick Hare:low hanging fruit. What you need to invent a telegraph is quite
Nick Hare:different to what you need to invent an internet.
Fraser McGruer:So if I've got this right, atoms versus bits is
Fraser McGruer:actually good news. Peter, you're right. We're wrong. Okay,
Fraser McGruer:that's the first one, yeah. Second inventors were a thing,
Fraser McGruer:and hey, now they're not. And Peter going, I'm not so sure
Fraser McGruer:about that. Peter's maybe right, but
Nick Hare:actually, instead of the 1980s it was the 1880s So,
Nick Hare:yeah,
Peter Coghill:okay, hey, wait, headway, just on your own.
Nick Hare:But I want to pick up something else. Peter said,
Nick Hare:because Peter said, because I think actually it, you remember,
Nick Hare:we've done, we did a podcast quite a long time ago about
Nick Hare:where famous people have gone, like, it seems like you don't
Nick Hare:get famous people anymore. And I think we identified that there
Nick Hare:was this kind of sweet spot in the 60s when you had enough
Nick Hare:media for there to be famous people at all. You know, instead
Nick Hare:of just being heard of in one. Town. You're heard of
Nick Hare:everywhere, but not enough media, certainly not enough
Nick Hare:media that you can use in your bedroom to, you know, to get a
Nick Hare:billion famous people, which is kind of what we have now, so
Nick Hare:that, like, nobody's famous again, but because everyone's
Nick Hare:famous, and I think to some extent, like, it is so much
Nick Hare:easier to be an inventor at home. Now you can 3d print
Nick Hare:parts. You can, you know, you can get a Arduino or a Raspberry
Nick Hare:Pi. I can write computer programmes, you know, which do
Nick Hare:things that are at home that I would never have been able to do
Nick Hare:in the 80s. And just because it can download software libraries
Nick Hare:or download data, and just, do you know, we, in a sense, like
Nick Hare:everyone, there must be millions of people, if ever, if we
Nick Hare:counted everyone uploading to Thingiverse or uploading to
Nick Hare:GitHub as an inventor, then suddenly the world's full of
Nick Hare:them. Yeah.
Peter Coghill:And I think this thing worth pointing out is how
Peter Coghill:democratised is. So they not only are there no fewer
Peter Coghill:inventors there, I think there are many, many many more,
Peter Coghill:because people have got more free time, more more spare cash,
Peter Coghill:and all of these tools, all this infrastructure that didn't exist
Peter Coghill:before GitHub, loads of code that you can use and reuse,
Peter Coghill:loads of maker spaces, places, especially short, it's just
Peter Coghill:absolutely swimming in them. Places you can go borrow a bench
Peter Coghill:and some tools and some materials to make, to try out
Peter Coghill:and make a thing and, and, yeah, you can buy a 3d printer for a
Peter Coghill:few 100 quid, keep it at home. All these cool things,
Peter Coghill:technology and infrastructure we've never had before means
Peter Coghill:that invention is now within way more people's grasp than it used
Peter Coghill:to be.
Fraser McGruer:I feel the world's moving on without me.
Fraser McGruer:I'm bit worried, because things like Thingiverse make a space,
Fraser McGruer:and I kind of vaguely know about GitHub, but I just don't know
Fraser McGruer:about any of this stuff.
Nick Hare:Don't worry. It's not that you're not that kind of
Nick Hare:inventor. You're that you're you're a different kind of
Nick Hare:creator. Thank you. You're a creator of chaos and art, and
Nick Hare:that's different. That's a different kind of thing. Yeah,
Nick Hare:I'll take that. I think so a couple of other potential
Nick Hare:economic things going on. So we talked about the, you know, the
Nick Hare:fact that it's pot, it's plausible that to do invention
Nick Hare:now has a higher kind of capital requirement that but, but I
Nick Hare:think there's also the fact that the precipitous declining cost
Nick Hare:of objects, really, you know, the manufacturing revolution of
Nick Hare:the last 50 years. This is not appreciated, really, I think, to
Nick Hare:the extent that it should be, but I don't, if you remember a
Nick Hare:documentary, it's kind of a documentary stroke experiment,
Nick Hare:probably about 15 years ago, where they made a family go
Nick Hare:through a year a day, and that it was kind of a social
Nick Hare:experiment where they gave that, I think they started in 1965 or
Nick Hare:something, and they were given new technology as it came out.
Nick Hare:And like, the first piece of technology was the teas made,
Nick Hare:which is an alarm clock combined with making you a cup of tea.
Nick Hare:Make a cup of tea, and then it wakes you up. Yeah, something
Nick Hare:that not a silly combination, and it was, and it was something
Nick Hare:like in today's money, 2000 pounds when it first came out,
Nick Hare:something utterly preposterous, you know, and now, and I was
Nick Hare:just so I looked at what my purchases have been, forget what
Nick Hare:you would regard as gadgets over the last year. And they include
Nick Hare:an electric kettle invented in 1891 a beard trimmer invented in
Nick Hare:1898 an e cigarette. 2003 a rice cooker, invented in 1956 carbon
Nick Hare:monoxide detector, boring, but useful. The modern ones were
Nick Hare:came out in the 1990s hole punch, 1886 that one battery
Nick Hare:tester, apparently not, not commercialised till 1980s a
Nick Hare:Water Flosser for my teeth, wireless microphones, pH
Nick Hare:detector strips and some LED bulbs. Now, a lot of these,
Nick Hare:these are all things that would have been quite an outlay 40
Nick Hare:years ago. These would be things that would cost you a
Nick Hare:substantial amount of money, and they're all basically nothing
Nick Hare:these days. You know, you can just get them for nothing on the
Nick Hare:internet and and I just think we don't, maybe just do not
Nick Hare:appreciate how many fabulous gadgets we're surrounded by, to
Nick Hare:the extent that we just sort of forget about them and don't
Nick Hare:notice how many brilliant things there are in our kitchens and
Nick Hare:living rooms doing cool stuff. What's a Water Flosser? It's
Nick Hare:basically like a little squirty water jet that that does the job
Nick Hare:of flossing, but uses water instead of floss. I wouldn't
Nick Hare:recommend it, to be honest. Okay, this hasn't changed my
Nick Hare:life.
Fraser McGruer:Okay, okay. So yeah, we're actually surrounded
Fraser McGruer:by loads of cool stuff. Yeah, I reckon, yeah, yeah. What do we
Fraser McGruer:got? Where are we going with this? So we were talking about
Fraser McGruer:the low hanging fruit stuff, which is, hey, there's a reason
Fraser McGruer:why individual inventors is not a thing anymore. Because for one
Fraser McGruer:person just to get the easy stuff is easy, and so they did
Peter Coghill:it. Yeah, right. Go on. Then. So, yeah, take,
Nick Hare:sorry, just the radical, the really big
Nick Hare:inventions have been invented. I think that's the argument that,
Nick Hare:you know, yes, a. Loan inventors can create new little,
Nick Hare:interesting shapes and maybe a new software. Oh, I'm sorry,
Nick Hare:but, but, you know, so there's more people inventing software
Nick Hare:now than many, more than there were 30 years ago. But there's
Nick Hare:fewer people invent it, or at least they're more concentrated.
Nick Hare:They're in large firms inventing the equivalent of penicillin.
Nick Hare:Yeah, because the big stuff's been done. Yeah.
Peter Coghill:So, I mean, following this follow, I think
Peter Coghill:following a case study is helpful, considering the lithium
Peter Coghill:ion battery, right? So, loves
Fraser McGruer:these things batteries, because it's, oh,
Fraser McGruer:this is so exciting. I can't
Peter Coghill:wait, because it's because it's kind of
Peter Coghill:pivotal, right? So it was early 80s, whether where the
Peter Coghill:breakthroughs in the chemistry were made. I mean, the chemistry
Peter Coghill:was always, was, was understood up to then, what they, what the
Peter Coghill:chemists then, who are, who were Nobel Prize laureates of good
Peter Coghill:enough, Whittingham and Yoshino, they, they get science names,
Peter Coghill:three, three people, I think two of them were working the same
Peter Coghill:group, and one Yoshino, was independent in working
Peter Coghill:independently in Japan, but they, but they was it was
Peter Coghill:stabilising it so that it could be put into a manufacturable
Peter Coghill:format. That where they where their breakthrough came. But
Peter Coghill:before the 1980s you didn't have lithium batteries. And after
Peter Coghill:that, after the 80s, you did have lithium batteries that, as
Peter Coghill:we said, kicked off lots of different mobile devices that
Peter Coghill:were otherwise not sort of feasible. But since then, you've
Peter Coghill:had continuous, but fairly incremental improvements on that
Peter Coghill:design. So it feels like there was a lithium and battery
Peter Coghill:problem. They solved it. But now we haven't that they've picked
Peter Coghill:that fruit. The next fruit is the next battery. Fruit is much
Peter Coghill:higher up and it's harder to get. Yeah, so it's three
Peter Coghill:people's effort made this thing work, versus the billions of
Peter Coghill:pounds of investment per year and millions and millions of
Peter Coghill:person hours that go into what's the next thing after the theme
Peter Coghill:battery, 100, you know, loads of loads of institutions are
Peter Coghill:pursuing that because it's such a big deal.
Fraser McGruer:So what I was about to say is, what I think
Fraser McGruer:you were saying is that incrementalism is less dramatic
Fraser McGruer:and less interesting. But it sounds to me that you're quite
Fraser McGruer:interested in actually, yeah. But so incrementalism,
Peter Coghill:yeah, and other things standing like the
Peter Coghill:microchips, you know, the the going from the transistor to the
Peter Coghill:microchip was quite a big jump. Even the transistor was quite a
Peter Coghill:bit. It was, was, was, but getting the transistor was quite
Peter Coghill:a sort of small effort, a couple of people working on that bell
Peter Coghill:labs, I think. But then to get the transit, to get the once
Peter Coghill:you, once you've got that jump, once you've done that jump to a
Peter Coghill:microchip, you've got incremental improvements again,
Peter Coghill:kind of year on year, they double in capacity and things,
Peter Coghill:and
Nick Hare:I suppose so the the thing, or incrementally
Nick Hare:improving again, each improvement is going to, you
Nick Hare:would assume, be harder and harder, yeah, but it but, but
Nick Hare:also for the field of kind of new potential, new the new
Nick Hare:transistor or the microchip, or the new innovative thing. What's
Nick Hare:after themselves? Yeah. Are also getting harder to Yeah. But, I
Nick Hare:mean, I think there's that yeah, so that it sort of feels like
Nick Hare:there's
Peter Coghill:even a law for it. There's a law for it. Oh
Peter Coghill:god. E rooms law, which I've never heard of. It's kind of the
Peter Coghill:inverse of Moore's law. What's Moore's law? Don't worry about
Peter Coghill:Moore's law, because we're not talking about that is, let me
Peter Coghill:look him up. So he was Laura, sort of, the is, is an
Peter Coghill:observation that the cost of specifically in drug discovery,
Peter Coghill:doubles every nine years. Wow, in pharma, just because it's
Peter Coghill:harder to get progress because you've done all the easy things,
Nick Hare:yeah, I think, and I think there's some, there's
Nick Hare:something else as well, which I think is probably related to
Nick Hare:this thing I was saying about the precipitous decline of
Nick Hare:gadgets, which is the how, just quite how much invention is
Nick Hare:effectively free, right? So, you know, if you invent a new, cool
Nick Hare:shape and you upload it to Thingiverse, it's kind of free.
Nick Hare:Most GitHub, you put things on GitHub, you've created something
Nick Hare:new, and it's free. Ai, you know, models are basically free.
Nick Hare:Like so much stuff is free that what previously would have been
Nick Hare:pursued, it might have been a massive project that a company
Nick Hare:like Microsoft might have done to produce something which I can
Nick Hare:just download for free now, and because, you know, because it
Nick Hare:would be monetizable, because you could make tonnes of money
Nick Hare:off it, now it's much harder to do that off the kinds of things.
Nick Hare:So what we're saying is there's a lot more.
Peter Coghill:Just download, if you try and monetize your shape
Peter Coghill:exactly, download a symbol, someone
Nick Hare:else will make a shape exactly the same and
Nick Hare:upload that for free. So it sort of feels like, okay, you've got
Nick Hare:the fact that these things are just not as valuable as they
Nick Hare:used to be, combined with the fact that you're increasingly
Nick Hare:getting to more and more costly things to create, sort of just,
Nick Hare:I think, more or less, explains how you can have both much more
Nick Hare:creation and invention, and at the same time it be harder and
Nick Hare:harder to create the genuinely new breakthrough. Yeah. So,
Nick Hare:yeah, makes sense. I think we've actually more or less closed
Nick Hare:this off. One thing, I think, which is undeniable, and I think
Nick Hare:we've covered all the reasons for it, but which is, I think,
Nick Hare:is a bit sad, is that I don't think people are as excited
Nick Hare:about technology as they used to be. And I think you know that
Nick Hare:that certainly the 80s, to me, was a real high point for being
Nick Hare:excited about and as Peter is so rightly reminding us, there's a
Nick Hare:lot of exciting things out there being invented, new stuff, a lot
Nick Hare:of it, maybe it's not like as consumer focused as it used to
Nick Hare:be, if it's a new gadget, but it, you know, it's sad that we
Nick Hare:when I was a kid, space was a big thing, you know, Carl Sagan
Nick Hare:and and the space shuttle and all that, space is a big thing
Nick Hare:now, yeah, like, space is bloody amazing, and we're and we're
Nick Hare:massively low themselves. I know it's incredible, and yet, kids
Nick Hare:are just, you know, it's not like, it's a big thing, like it
Nick Hare:used to be. I mean, we, you know, my dad used to take me to
Nick Hare:the Science Museum to go and see the space exhibition. It was
Nick Hare:like, this is we're going to be all on the moon in 30 years now,
Nick Hare:we might actually end up on the moon in 30 years time. It's much
Nick Hare:more plausible now than it was then. And yet we just sort of
Nick Hare:go, oh yeah, okay, another, another rocket, whatever. So
Nick Hare:it's, you know, I don't know. It's just, it would be nice to
Nick Hare:get some of that
Peter Coghill:excitement back. Maybe it's become too routine,
Peter Coghill:because there's so much of it,
Nick Hare:because there's so much of it, I suspect that's it
Nick Hare:has the idea of new technology become so ubiquitous that it's
Nick Hare:boring.
Fraser McGruer:So look two questions. I think they're both
Fraser McGruer:great. First one, what's the most disappointing technology
Fraser McGruer:that you've ever used or been gifted? You know, is a good
Fraser McGruer:question. You might have been either excited about a song,
Fraser McGruer:gave you something like, oh, and then usually like, well, this is
Fraser McGruer:crap. That's the first question. Second thing, I'm quite
Fraser McGruer:interested you sound like inventors to me, because you
Fraser McGruer:were talking about this thingy, things, whatever it's called,
Fraser McGruer:and get Yeah, and GitHub, or whatever. It sounds like you do
Fraser McGruer:stuff, yeah. Sounds like you do stuff, and you do codes and
Fraser McGruer:things and load it and stuff, and what have you made? Because
Fraser McGruer:I need to get in on this. I don't I have no idea. So I'd
Fraser McGruer:like to know, what have you done. And obviously I've got no
Fraser McGruer:answer for that second one, but the first one, I do two good
Fraser McGruer:questions.
Nick Hare:Well, you mainly invented Cesaro Ecko. That was
Nick Hare:very cool, mainly cobbled together from parts of other
Nick Hare:things, but there wasn't anything that did that unplug
Nick Hare:Cicero's echo. I'm all ears.
Peter Coghill:Yeah. So we so Nick had an idea to have a
Peter Coghill:active, dynamic and context aware picture for a picture that
Peter Coghill:responds to your board game session. So you'd have an open
Peter Coghill:you have an open mic that's listening to the conversation,
Peter Coghill:and it would this pick the screen would render your an
Peter Coghill:image that's in some way representative or appropriate
Peter Coghill:for for your
Nick Hare:game all using off the shelf pre training, yeah.
Peter Coghill:So we So, so I built this thing that captured
Peter Coghill:audio, transcribed the audio, sent it to an image generator
Peter Coghill:with a bunch of prompts and and gave you an image back. Yeah.
Peter Coghill:And it was quite fun. It worked really well.
Nick Hare:What have you invented? Well, I was, I've
Nick Hare:been, over the summer, I worked on a, worked on a software
Nick Hare:framework called Falcon, which is for training, specifically
Nick Hare:for training board game playing AIs. And so it's, it's
Nick Hare:basically, instead of being in the past, I've trained AIS to
Nick Hare:play specific board games, right? So, you know, to just
Nick Hare:simple ones, your kind of Noughts and Crosses and ultimate
Nick Hare:Noughts and Crosses, various other things that I've trained
Nick Hare:and it, I always, always do it, and I go, Oh, it's so annoying.
Nick Hare:I'm doing the same things that I did last time. I'm going to
Nick Hare:build a software framework to do it. So I've got loads of
Nick Hare:components right in this kind of framework, and they kind of
Nick Hare:handle all the all the tedious stuff. So basically, you code
Nick Hare:your code for the just for the board game, and a few other
Nick Hare:things, and you put them in there, and it then does all the
Nick Hare:training itself. It generates the data, and it trains the new
Nick Hare:models and all that. Like with nearly all my projects, it's not
Nick Hare:finished yet, but it's a lot more advanced than I would have
Nick Hare:predicted. Are you saying you created a trainer for your
Nick Hare:creative thing that is going to that that can be that you can
Nick Hare:use to very easily create board game. AI's right? So it's based
Nick Hare:on, it's based on kind of neural network, which I
Peter Coghill:just realised that my answer was the invent,
Peter Coghill:my invention that Nick was most proud of.
Fraser McGruer:Ah, okay, good.
Peter Coghill:Another, recent one. It's hardly an invention,
Peter Coghill:really, but I was, I was pleased with how quick it was to make.
Peter Coghill:So I made a thing that simply downloads a calendar from the
Peter Coghill:UCI website that's in a weird format and publishes it as a
Peter Coghill:calendar. So really basic bit of data manipulation it took me
Peter Coghill:and. About 10 minutes to get
Fraser McGruer:that working. Well, so you invented a
Fraser McGruer:calendar. I didn't quite understand.
Peter Coghill:I meant it's hardly an invention. It was just
Peter Coghill:all I've done is republish information from one website
Peter Coghill:onto another, well,
Nick Hare:in a useless form into a useful
Peter Coghill:Yeah, from a useless form into a useful form.
Peter Coghill:And it took all of the thing I'm proud of is the fact that it
Peter Coghill:took me 10 minutes to make
Fraser McGruer:it, Okay, nice. I've realised in in much the
Fraser McGruer:same way, that your might not be an invention. I've got an
Fraser McGruer:invention that you might say that's not invention, but I
Fraser McGruer:think it is, which is, as we get older, all of us wear glasses,
Fraser McGruer:okay? And sometimes, as we get older, we need, sort of, you
Fraser McGruer:know, our near vision. We get sort of long sighted, right? And
Fraser McGruer:I don't want to look like some old grand some old granny with
Fraser McGruer:sort of bifocals or very focused, anything like that,
Fraser McGruer:even very focused, I think I'm not keen on those. And also that
Fraser McGruer:costs stuff, right? So if you've already got two pairs of
Fraser McGruer:glasses, and
Unknown:Yeah, where's this going?
Fraser McGruer:And so you're both sure you're both short
Fraser McGruer:sighted and long sighted. You just put them both on, okay, at
Fraser McGruer:the same time, right? So there you are watching TV, and you
Fraser McGruer:need, oh no, I'm short sighted. I need my short sighted glasses
Fraser McGruer:to watch TV.
Peter Coghill:Okay, I've got, I've got an improvement for you.
Peter Coghill:Well, this is
Fraser McGruer:the thing, is what we're talking about. So I
Fraser McGruer:have the big discovery, yeah. And then you sort of
Fraser McGruer:incrementally, yeah, refine it, yeah. But then just a one day,
Fraser McGruer:and I just started putting on my these glasses for when I need to
Fraser McGruer:read stuff, but then I want to sort of look down here and look
Fraser McGruer:up the TV down, pushing them down onto your nose like that.
Fraser McGruer:No, no, no. But you wear both glasses at the same time, okay,
Fraser McGruer:but the RE Why would you do that? Right? Well, the reason
Fraser McGruer:why is because you don't want to look stupid. Because you don't
Fraser McGruer:look stupid. You don't look like some old person with very vocals
Fraser McGruer:and things like that, or have the cost of getting an extra
Fraser McGruer:pair of glasses when you've already got two. And if you want
Fraser McGruer:to go further, you could even sort of time together with like
Fraser McGruer:an elastic band or something. And I have actually spent more
Fraser McGruer:hours sitting down, as I have just described, than you would
Fraser McGruer:imagine, two pairs of glasses online. George, you want an
Fraser McGruer:improvement? Well, I'm open to suggestion,
Nick Hare:or, yeah, I think you'll be annoyed if you try and
Nick Hare:improve it. Go on, put in with it,
Peter Coghill:pop out a lens from each one, and have a long
Peter Coghill:sighted lens and a short sighted lens in one frame, and then just
Peter Coghill:close one eye,
Unknown:one long
Peter Coghill:side, eye, one short side. I
Fraser McGruer:think you should keep to see things and keep on
Fraser McGruer:uploading stuff that to that. And I'll stick to keep with this
Fraser McGruer:stuff,
Unknown:optics, advanced optics, it's Fraser's area.
Unknown:Yeah, that's
Fraser McGruer:all we've got time for today. You've been
Fraser McGruer:listening to the cognitive engineering podcast brought to
Fraser McGruer:you by Aleph Insights and produced by me, Fraser McGruer,
Fraser McGruer:if you haven't already, please like and subscribe. We try and
Fraser McGruer:release an episode every week or two. If there are topics you'd
Fraser McGruer:like us to cover, please do get in touch. You can find out more
Fraser McGruer:about Aleph Insights at Alephinsights.com many thanks
Fraser McGruer:for listening until next time. Goodbye.