The stock market looks relatively quiet today.

But underneath the surface?

THERE'S A HUGE FIGHT GOING ON.

On one side:

🤖 NVIDIA + AI

NVIDIA just announced an enormous $150 BILLION stock buyback, while chip names including Applied Materials and Marvell are showing significant strength.

On the other:

📈 INTEREST RATES

The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to roughly 5.26%—its highest level in years.

And here's the clue that tells us which force is really driving this market:

OIL IS FALLING.

Oil dropped toward $90.

If oil were still the market's primary problem, falling oil should be giving stocks a meaningful lift.

It isn't.

That's the tell.

RATES ARE THE ROUTE NOW.

In today's Exit Rich…Retire Free Daily Read, Jeff Kikel breaks down the tug-of-war happening underneath a deceptively quiet market—and why NVIDIA's massive buyback is helping the AI trade fight against one of the biggest valuation headwinds investors have faced in years. Daily Read #32

NVIDIA JUST BET $150 BILLION ON ITSELF

What exactly does a stock buyback do?

When a company buys back its own shares, two things happen.

First, it reduces the number of shares outstanding.

That means each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.

Second, the company itself becomes a buyer of its own stock.

And in NVIDIA's case we're talking about:

$150 BILLION.

That's an enormous potential source of demand.

It's one reason NVIDIA can trade higher even while rising interest rates are putting pressure on much of the rest of the market. Daily Read #32

BUT RATES ARE FIGHTING BACK

The 10-year Treasury has climbed to approximately:

5.26%

That's important well beyond the bond market.

Higher long-term rates affect:

🏠 Mortgages

💳 Borrowing costs

🏢 Business financing

📊 Stock valuations

And particularly:

HIGH-VALUATION GROWTH STOCKS.

That's why today's market is such an interesting tug-of-war.

You have one enormous force pulling downward:

📈 5.26% Treasury yields

And another pulling upward:

🤖 AI leadership + NVIDIA's $150 billion buyback

The result?

A market that looks quiet on the surface but is anything but quiet underneath. Daily Read #32

THE BIG TELL: OIL

For much of September, oil was one of the biggest forces driving markets.

Today oil fell toward $90.

But stocks didn't surge.

Meanwhile, yields climbed and gold and silver came under significant pressure.

That tells us something important:

THE DRIVER CHANGED.

When the old driver reverses and the market doesn't respond the way you would expect, look for the new driver.

Right now:

RATES ARE THE ROUTE.

WHAT I'M WATCHING NEXT

🤖 OPENAI DEVDAY — TODAY

OpenAI's keynote could produce announcements capable of moving AI-related stocks.

💾 MICRON — WEDNESDAY AFTER THE CLOSE

Micron earnings provide another important read on AI memory demand and could influence the broader semiconductor group.

📈 10-YEAR TREASURY

This remains the big one.

If the 10-year keeps moving higher from roughly 5.26%, eventually even the strength in NVIDIA and AI may have trouble offsetting the pressure.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome

to the next episode of The Daily

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Read here on Tuesday, September

29th, on Exit Rich, Retire Free.

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My name is Jeff Kikel, and today we are

off to the races with AI stocks again.

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So let's take a look right out of

the gate and see where we're at here

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So on a morning when rising

interest rates are dragging on

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almost everything, one stock is

bucking the tide and trading higher.

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That's Nvidia.

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Why?

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Because it just announced it's going to

buy back $150 billion of its own stock.

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Let's unpack what that actually means and

what it tells you about the whole market

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So Regime Lab is mixed

and cautious this morning.

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Uh, the Dow's down slightly, the

S&P and the NASDAQ basically flat,

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and the pressure is the s- and the,

the pressure is the same villain

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as last week, interest rates.

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The 10-year Treasury yield

climbed again to 5.26%,

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the highest in years.

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But watch this twist.

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Oil, the thing everyone spent

September obsessing over, actually

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tumbled down to about $90 a barrel.

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So the weight on stocks isn't oil

anymore, it's bonds, and the only

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reason the market isn't falling harder

is a powerful offset, the AI trade.

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NVIDIA's at a buy point with

the giant buyback, and chip

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names like Applied Materials and

Marvell are rallying 3 to 4%.

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Uh, many others even more than that

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So two things worth understanding here.

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First, the buyback.

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When a company buys back its own

st- shares, it does two things.

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It shrinks the number of shares

out there, so each share you own

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becomes a slightly bigger slice of

the company, and the buying itself

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puts a steady bid under the stock.

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A hundred and fifty billion dollars

is an, an enormous amount of an

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ongoing buyer, which is exactly why

NVIDIA can rise on the day when the

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broad market's flat or in the red.

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It's the company betting on

itself with its own wallet.

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Second, zoom out.

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Last week, I told you the market's

driver had rotated from oil to rates.

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Today confirms it cleanly.

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Oil fell even further, and if

oil were still running this

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market, that would spark a rally.

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Instead, yields rose and

gold and silver got crushed.

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Now, that's not because of interest

rates, but when interest rates go up,

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typically the dollar strengthens, and

gold and silver are dollar-denominated.

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So you'll typically see them kind

of offset when it comes to this.

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That's the tell.

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When the old driver reverses

and the market doesn't follow,

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you've found the new one.

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Rates are the route now

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So don't read the flat

tape as nothing happened.

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Underneath, two heavyweights

are trading punches.

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The 5.25%

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10-year pulling valuations down and

raising, uh, the, uh, rates on mortgages

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and everything else, and a buyback

armed, uh, AI complex pulling up.

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The practical takeaway, respect where

the rate pressure lands hardest.

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Gold, silver, and the rate-sensitive

corners are taking real damage.

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And notice where genuine strength still

lives, which is the AI and chip leaders.

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Follow the strength, respect the gravity.

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Both are real today

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Now, three things on the radar.

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Micron reports Wednesday after the close.

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A major read on the AI memory

demand that can change or that

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could swing the entire chip group.

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OpenAI holds its DevDay

keynote at 1:00 today.

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Uh, worth watching for anything that

moves the AI names, and keep one eye

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locked on the 10-year yield, , or 5.26

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and climbing.

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If it keeps pushing higher, even the

buyback and AI offset starts to strain.

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So that's your daily read.

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A quiet tape hiding a loud fight.

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Rates pulling down $150 billion

buyback and the AI trade pulling up.

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Watch the route.

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It still rates.

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I'm Jeff Kickel.

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Exit Rich, Retire Free, and as always,

this is education and not advice