The Evolution of the Loan Officer With Dave Savage | October 2024 Data - Market Advantage - Mortgage Trends and Expert Insights

Olivia DeLancey: 00:00:02

Welcome to Market Advantage, the monthly podcast from Optimal Blue. Tune in for valuable insights from the Market Advantage Mortgage Data Report and in depth conversations with industry experts.

Stay competitive and optimize your advantage in the ever evolving mortgage landscape.

Olivia DeLancey: 00:00:20

Hi and welcome to the Market Advantage Podcast by Optimal Blue. My co host Brennan O'Connell and I will be looking at rate lock data from October today and then we'll be welcoming Dave Savage as our special guest.

He is Chief Innovation Officer at Trust Engine and founder of Mortgage Coach. I know that the loan originators in our audience will be very excited to hear from Dave.

Now, before we dive into the data, I want to remind you that we'll only be covering the highlights today.

There is so much more valuable data in the full Market Advantage report which you can find in our show notes and be sure to subscribe if you don't already so Brennan, rates seem to be moving in the wrong direction in October. What's going on with that?

Brennan O'Connell: 00:01:00

Yeah, they sure are. Rates reverse course in October as you mentioned across the board.

So our benchmark 30 year conforming rate rose 65 basis points from the end of September to Finish October at 6.79%.

Our FHA index rose about a half a point, finished at 6.43% and VA rates saw the largest increase, ticking up three quarters of a point to 6.36% to end the month. Jumbo Index was up as well, more subdued 41 basis points and finished the month at 6.82%, close to where conforming rates were.

I think it's interesting the topic that everyone is discussing. We were just at the Mortgage Banker association conference and it came up frequently there as why is this happening?

We're not in the business of opining on rate movements, bond market movements. If we didn't know that, we'd be bond traders. But what we do know is that much of the increase was related to increases in the bond market.

So we can see the delta between the primary mortgage rate and the 10 year didn't widen particularly far in the month.

So the 30 year conforming rate rose about 60 basis points, about 40 basis points of that two thirds of it was related to just overall bond market movement, and then a third was an increase in the spread between the mortgage rates and the ten year. So that was probably due to some prepayment expectations.

Again, as rates go up, all else being equal, those loans are more likely to be prepaid once they've been originated and rates come back down. So that's really what's driving it. Again, there's geopolitical concerns. There's economic data coming up.

So all of this information goes into bond market decision makers.

Olivia DeLancey: 00:02:55

So with the rate increase, how did volumes look in October?

Brennan O'Connell: 00:02:59

Yeah, it was maybe a better story on the volume side than one would have expected given the rate increase. So despite this very tough rate trajectory, we actually saw strong growth in the purchase lock. Volumes rose 12% month over month.

Even more encouraging, purchase lock counts, which is this key benchmark measurement that we look at, it excludes home price appreciation. It excludes more volatile refi activity. That number was up 9% year over year. So that's a trend that has continued.

It started in September and continued into October. So actually really encouraging and an indication that maybe the market, at least the underlying purchase market has turned the corner a bit.

And this rate increase is maybe more of a blip on the radar than a secular trend in terms of how it's impacting origination. As expected, the rate increase did have a muting effect on rate and term refinances.

So rate and term volumes were down about 45% month over month, outweighing a small increase in cash outs which were up 6%. Likely done in kind of the front half of the month when rates were still a little bit lower.

The total refi share of lock volume that we saw fell to 23%. That's lower than both August and September, but it is higher than any other month we've seen since April of 22.

Another interesting production trend or set of trends that we're watching is a mix shift.

an tracking this data back in: 2018

At 53% overall, it's an evidence of a shift towards non QM and govy loan programs.

And FHA share in particular has grown in the current market and primarily as a result of affordability concerns and now accounts for one in five locks that we're seeing.

Olivia DeLancey: 00:05:08

Very interesting. So I know another data point we always look at is credit quality. What do we see there in October?

Brennan O'Connell: 00:05:15

Yeah, average credit quality unlocked, loans dipped for refinance production. I think that's pretty typical when you see the refi volume falling.

A lot of times we see credit scores or average credit scores kind of moving in that same direction. So rate and term credit scores were down, falling about 6 points on average down to 730 overall.

And then the other point I'd just make is that the average loan amount also fell from September to October. It decreased from 383,000 to 380,000. Again, that purchase market, though, showing some strength.

Purchase prices, average purchase prices on homes that we're seeing in the locked data rose from 475,000 to 482,000. So again, indication that there's still some strength in that underlying purchase market. Folks are getting used to the new rate environment.

Even the recent uptick in rates doesn't seem to be dissuading those who are looking to buy homes.

Olivia DeLancey: 00:06:16

Thanks, Brennan. And just as a reminder, there's much more data available in the full report and the link to that is in our show notes.

Now, before we welcome Dave, our guest, I did want to mention that Optimal Blue will be hosting its inaugural User Summit. This will be February 3rd through 5th in San Diego. The whole Optimal Blue team, including Brendan and myself, are so excited for this event.

Sessions will be built for everybody across the mortgage lifecycle, so highly encourage you to check it out. The link to the website for the event is also in our show notes.

And if you like data and market analysis, which is probably why you're here, you'll definitely want to be there. We have a couple of special guests and lots of sessions tailored to data.

Brennan O'Connell: 00:06:56

Yes, Mike Fratantoni is going to be a keynote speaker. The chief economist from the mba. We just had Joel Kan on from the mba.

We know the economics group at the Mortgage Bankers association always does a good job. So really excited to have Mike there in February.

Olivia DeLancey: 00:07:11

Hope to see you all there. All right, it's time to welcome this month's guest. We have Dave Savage, chief innovation officer at Trust Engine and founder of Mortgage Coach.

He's well known for empowering originators to provide financial counsel to borrowers. He's a strong proponent of strengthening financial financial literacy in the mortgage shopping process. Dave, we are thrilled to have you today.

Welcome to the Market Advantage podcast.

Dave Savage: 00:07:34

Good. It's good to be here and I'm looking forward to the conversation.

Olivia DeLancey: 00:07:37

Excellent. Well, let's dive right in.

I know we have a lot we want to talk about, so loan officers and brokers are such an influential part of the homeownership journey. How have you seen the role of the loan officer and or broker kind of evolve in recent years?

Dave Savage: 00:07:54

Yeah, I think more and more when you see the role evolving, loan officers need to become modern mortgage advisors. When I think of modern, it's how to deliver the most value and the most convenience to a consumer, obviously that's buyers.

Sometimes that's a home buyer, sometimes that's a homeowner that you're just looking to optimize their debt. But I think more and more it's about going beyond the transaction. Like, let's face it, everything that can be automated will be automated.

So the more that a mortgage advisor can help a family build wealth with real estate by helping them make better decisions, that's who's going to win. And so when I first started being what I'd call a mortgage advisor a couple decades ago, there were like a handful of mortgage advisors.

Everybody was a loan officer. Quote rates, closed loans, the value prop was I close loans on time, I give great communication, I have competitive interest rates.

And I think we've seen a clear evolution that the best of the best transactions like that's table stakes. It's helping people build wealth with real estate over time and being an advisor that can help do that.

Olivia DeLancey: 00:09:05

Could you compare and contrast real quick? You say loan advisor, loan officer. How do you differentiate those two?

Dave Savage: 00:09:14

Well, I mean, first of all, I think if a loan officer at the point of sale is just like, here's your rate, here's your payment, here's your cash to close, that's extremely transactional. When I think of an advisor, they're, you know, they're giving people options.

And some of the best loan officers in the country, you know, they understand that if you give a consumer options and even the way I've seen some of the best loan officers in the country use your platform optimal blue, they'll sometimes talk about, hey, I've got all these different lenders that I'm comparing rates on.

I have lots of different options points, no points, arms, 5 year, 10 year, 30 year later you give options and then what are the cost of those options over time? So typical loan officer is just going to focus on closing costs. A mortgage advisor is going to give options.

They're going to show the cost of those options over like times that matter to the consumer. Five years, seven years. If it's a military family, often they're really concerned about the next year to two years.

Am I going to be landlocked if I get deployed somewhere else over two years? If it's a first time homebuyer, they're going to probably be concerned about three to five years.

If it's you know, third home and we want our kids to, you know, go through high school here, they're going to be, you know, caring about like 10 years. So showing the cost over time.

And then the third, third thing is that people don't get loans because they want loans, they get loans because they want homes. And so showing the consumer different ways of paying off the loan faster, like, hey, what if you paid an extra $100 towards your mortgage?

What would that look like in terms of reducing your overall interest cost? What if you took that $100 and invested it? What would be better for you?

So, I mean, the loan officer is transactional and it's all about closing the loan on time. And the advisor is more like, what does this mean to you over three years, five years, 15 years, they're looking more long term for the consumer.

Brennan O'Connell: 00:11:15

Dave, do you find that in this sort of loan advisor, loan officer dichotomy, folks who are taking more of an advisory approach are engaging? I don't know if it's potentially earlier in the process.

I think of you said transactional a couple of times, and I think that's one of those words where you think of maybe it's a little bit shorter, it's point in time. Whereas an advisor might be engaging earlier in the buying or the financing lifecycle of a borrower.

Do you find that there's opportunities for adept loan officers or brokers to engage earlier so that they can start having the conversations about rent versus buy or different options on financing? Does it make sense to engage earlier?

And have you seen that happen over time with improvements in technology, products like Mortgage Coach, and just sort of a general move towards an advisory versus a transactional role for the lo and the broker?

Dave Savage: 00:12:14

Yeah, absolutely. I mean, it absolutely makes sense.

You're seeing many of the top 1%, what I would call modern mortgage advisors, not only get ahead of this and get to the consumer first, primarily managing a database, making sure that you're as predictive and proactive with that database as possible.

You know, anytime you can help a consumer save money through reorganizing their debt or restructuring their debt, or anytime you can help the consumer build wealth with real estate faster. And I would say, you know, I'm also the founder of First Home iq.

We're starting to see loan officers go beyond just helping consumers when they're ready to buy a home. Like, we're seeing mortgage professionals lean into families and help families get their kids into homeownership earlier.

You know, we've never had more equity than we have today in America. So people that do own homes have a tremendous amount of equity.

I think every parent would love to see their kids get into homeownership as young and fast as they can.

So I'm seeing a lot of what I would call modern mortgage advisors get, you know, like educate your database how to make smarter mortgage decisions that help you build wealth faster and go beyond just home buying age. Let's make sure that kids by the age of 21, they understand how home appreciation rate works.

They understand by the age of 18, they're going to be signing student loans and being targeted by credit card companies. They should understand how credit works and how credit score is going to impact your life. So yes, it's a good idea.

And yes, I've seen a lot of very successful people run that playbook.

Brennan O'Connell: 00:14:01

It's almost financial advisory. Right. It sort of goes beyond the mortgage.

And to that end, do you feel that loan advisors have, the modern loan advisor have found opportunities as well to get more engaged with other advisors. So the obvious one is the real estate agent. And so having strong relationships there, it's going to allow you to engage earlier in the process.

But even this is maybe a little bit outside the box.

But as you're talking about some of the general financial decisions that an individual might be making, is there a world where the lo or the broker is starting to build out a network of relationships with financial advisors?

Kind of your traditional asset management, money management folks who are going to be engaging in some of the same or overlapping conversations with their borrowers about where they should be investing their money. When is the right time to buy a home? When is the right time to upgrade their home or refinance their home?

Dave Savage: 00:15:01

Absolutely. I mean, first of all, when I founded Mortgage Coach, my primary referral partner was the financial planner, the cpa.

I teach loan officers and I advocate for mortgage professionals is be the captain of the wealth team. And the captain of wealth team has great partnerships with real estate agents.

Of course, that is where most Americans build wealth is through their primary residence. But when you look at America's balance sheet, there's an asset side of the balance sheet.

And let's face it, like the majority of Americans don't have enough money in equities and stocks and bonds to have a financial planner. But yet there's over 330,000 financial planners in America helping manage the asset side of the balance sheet.

There's like over a million insurance agents, there's hundreds of thousands of CPAs. So the asset side of the balance sheet is well staffed in America. There's a lot of advisors to do it.

The liability side of the balance sheet in America, which is what is it like 13 trillion in mortgage debt, over 5 trillion in consumer debt. Student loans have never been higher. Credit card debt and all this debt's never been higher. And equity in homes.

And I don't know exactly how many loan officers there are today, but I know there's about 100,000 less loan officers. So to me, the loan officer of the future understands like, I'm the captain of the wealth team.

I've got strategic relationships with CPAs, financial planners. I'm responsible for the liability side of the balance sheet and helping consumers optimize their liabilities, help them optimize their equity.

And I do believe that the loan officers that strategically have that mindset and then they have those skills will absolutely take market share from loan officers that are just playing the, I quote rates. I close loans on time, you know, I keep my promises. Like that can be automated and everything that can be automated will be automated.

Brennan O'Connell: 00:17:08

Right. Do you have, we want to make this as actionable as possible for our listeners.

Do you have any specific examples of ways that folks who are originating loans could go out and start building some of those relationships?

Obviously you can look up the local CPAs and financial advisors and real estate agents, but is there any networks or any best practices that you see from your clients that you'd suggest for our listeners they should look into if they wanted to start down this path?

Dave Savage: 00:17:43

Well, I mean, I'll share some free resources for everyone to do so. First of all, I mean, I interview top producing loan officers that are modern mortgage advisors on our YouTube channel.

So you should absolutely follow our YouTube channel. We've got a playlist, I think I've got a playlist called Captain of the Wealth Team.

There's a playlist to how to get business from financial advisors. When I was in the early days of founding Mortgage Coach, I wrote a, like an ebook that's called the Art of Referral.

And so if you googled Art of Referral. Dave Savage. There's a little playbook on how to get business from CPAs and financial planners.

There's an assessment@modernmortgageiq.com where you can take a five minute kind of free assessment as to are you a loan officer? Are you a modern mortgage advisor? So those are all free resources.

But I think at the end of the day, you know, if you are a loan officer and you are not leaning in to technology, I'm not saying everybody needs to be, you know, an Instagram personality, but you should be intentional about your digital personal brand.

And when someone Googles you, do you look like a pro do you look like someone who has a niche and that, you know, has a lot of social proof that you deliver value? You know, check. If you don't, you're going to lose market share to mortgage professionals that don't.

But those are some free resources that I would recommend people check out.

Olivia DeLancey: 00:19:19

We'll have to make sure we include links to those resources in our show notes so that our listeners can find them easily.

Dave, I kind of wanted to double down on your talk about social media and personal branding, which I think is so important for really every professional in today's world, but especially somebody like a loan officer or a broker who's really striving for those relationships. Do you have any, like, quick tips like how do they achieve those things that you just mentioned?

Dave Savage: 00:19:47

Yeah. So first of all, I think when you think of modern marketing, I don't think there's like marketing and then there's social media.

I think, you know, like the modern marketing mix is email, it is text, it is LinkedIn, it is Facebook, it is Instagram, like they're all one.

And then, you know, when it comes to video, I think a lot of people, when they think of video, they think, oh, I have to be that personality on Instagram. Which, by the way, it's a great strategy. And you're seeing a lot of the top 1% mortgage professionals be valuable with video on social media.

And that's what I always tell people, just be valuable.

You don't, you know, if you can just like, obviously I'm a big fan of YouTube and think of the questions that consumers have and have valuable video on YouTube, but let's just call that advanced. And that may be too much for someone. But guys like, I don't know what an Android phone is like, but I've got an Apple phone.

And now when I text people, it is just as easy for me to do an audio note. So like where I can like talk to someone, they can hear my voice and I can connect. It's just as easy to do a text video.

Like it's really easy to video.

So I would just push everyone that when you think of modern marketing and you think of personal brand, start like the little things like riding the bike with wheels or using the audio memo, using the video. You met with a Realtor or CPA or financial planner and you know, put your phone, you don't need a fancy light.

You know, put your phone against the wall and just, hey, it was really nice meeting with you. Thank you for taking time to meet with me.

I interviewed Top producing loan officers that when they meet with someone and they have a little 10 to 20 minute discovery call with someone, they put a text video to the consumer telling them how to easily and effectively do business with me. Yeah, just click on the link down below, fill out the questionnaire. I've put another link.

By the way, if you're not using links, that's a clue that you're not an optimized mortgage professional.

Like if it's, you know, oh, PDFs attached to emails and there's like five PDFs in an email, like interactive, digital optimized links to content, that's the wave of the future. And my last thought on that is if, if you are a modern originator and you have a strong personal brand, you will always have a seat at the table.

Like, regardless of how much automation takes place, if you are that valuable resource, you know, you'll always have a seat at the table in the mortgage space.

Olivia DeLancey: 00:22:42

Well said.

So given our focus on data at Optimal Blue, I think, you know, one thing we were really interested in chatting with you about is how are you seeing loan officers and brokers using data to do their jobs more effectively, especially in terms of being that trusted advisor to borrowers.

Dave Savage: 00:23:02

Yeah, well, there's a number of ways in which I see data being used effectively in the industry and some that we're very passionate about. First of all, using data to deliver a great presentation to help a consumer make a better decision.

So taking optimal blue pricing data and then giving people options, showing the cost of those options over time, showing different ways of becoming debt free or building your net worth with real estate. So how data is displayed beyond just simple transactional levels, I think is really smart.

I'm a big fan of how you guys have used data and now you have the Optimal blue mortgage market index. We actually have that built into our Rate Watch app so that it displays on Rate Watch.

But using data to have context, look at how interest rates have performed historically.

I always think that the best modern mortgage advisors, they are smart around what's happening with interest rates and then they're also able to display that data in a way that's useful to a consumer that like, hey, I've got my pulse on the market and I know what's happening.

And I'm going to be a great advisor and a great guide to you to helping you get the most effective mortgage for your, you know, to achieve your goals. And so I think how that data is displayed, you guys have done a great job with displaying that data.

I Love the way you show it based off of different, you know, loan to values. You know, there's just lots of layers in context. So that's it's consuming it, it's displaying it in a way that helps consumers make better decisions.

And then we use data a lot to be, be more predictive.

You know, how can we anticipate the needs of a consumer who is most likely to move up in a, in a database who's most likely to be eligible and have a high propensity score to be refinancing, whether that's a rate and term refi or a cash out refi, but using data so that you can be more valuable to the consumer and come to the consumer with like hey, did you know you could save money? Did you know that if you did this versus this you could actually pay off your home faster and achieve financial freedom faster?

Did you know that if you moved up or you moved down this is what things could look like in five years for you? So I think to be predictive, but it all comes down to being more valuable.

How can we go beyond the transaction and be more valuable to the consumers we serve?

Brennan O'Connell: 00:25:44

Couldn't agree more. Certainly I think we have the same.

We're like minded in that it's how do you arm the loan officer, the modern mortgage advisor with the tools and broadly defined tools includes data. How do you arm them with the information so that they can be in that advisory role? I think you've got advice, not price on the website.

I love that as a short turn of phrase to maybe sum up a lot of what we're talking about here. I wanted to. Dave, you're such an expert in the industry.

You've seen different eras, you've seen new technology come in and have its impact on the profession, on the mortgage industry broadly. Sort of dovetailing here into a philosophical discussion. I think optimal blue and trust engine feel the same way.

We see the development of technology being, as I mentioned, sort of like arming. It's sort of like we're building the Ironman suit to layer on to the human involved in the process versus building the Terminator, right.

The robot that and I apologize, Olivia, you have to deal with my metaphors all the time here. But we're just going to roll with this one. The metaphor of the terminator, right. Who's going to take the place? Right.

Anything that can be automated will be automated. And so seeing other technologists who feel the same way, we want to arm the individual in the process.

Do you have any general Perspectives on that, Dave, over the next 10 years, certainly the pace of innovation around AI is not going to slow down. There's going to be people who suggest and will certainly try out platforms and businesses where they remove the human altogether.

There won't be a loan officer involved. You'll just be self service, just like we are when we go to the shop at Target. Now how do we continue to arm loan officers to make sure that they.

Because I think we all agree that it's better to have that human involved in the process. I think there's something uniquely human about that.

How do we continue to develop products and empower those loan officers so that they can stay ahead of the terminator?

Dave Savage: 00:27:51

Yeah.

So for any loan officers or leaders of loan officers tuned into this, I think it's really important to think about the model and there's probably people watching this, that most of your loan officers are local referral based mortgage advisors. And so I think it's super important that they leverage that local value and that consumer value.

So I mean every consumer, like I said, they want to build wealth with real estate. And being a homeowner is still the American dream, but the ultimate American dream is financial freedom with homeownership.

And so the more you can visualize that with data for a consumer, whether they're refinancing or they're buying a home, it's, it's, it's thinking, it's, it's vision casting three years in five years based off of someone's goals.

So, so that means you need to double down on your, your empathy, you need to double down on your curiosity, you need to double down on that emotional iq, someone's goals and what matters to them. And then, and then map that like if you're local, localize that. Like, let's face it, real estate is a local thing.

So I think when it comes to the purchase market and doing purchase business, there's a very long tail of value for the local referral based loan officer to, you know, be the captain of the wealth team, have relationships with the, you know, local real estate agents that are advisors. You know, they're not just realtors, they are real estate advisors. They are like minded. I think that's important.

Partner with local CPAs and financial planners so that you really bring a lot of local value to that consumer. I do think when it comes to call it rate and term refinances, hey, the servicers got their A game out.

You know, they're, they're leveraging data to be very predictive. They have very lean pricing models so that they can deliver a very cost effective rate in term refinance.

And so for modern local referral based mortgage professionals, I think you can still compete, but it's going to get harder and harder to compete in that. And if you are not playing the client for life game and you're playing the transaction game, I mean your market share is going to go down.

And I always tell local loan officers, technology and these other models aren't going to put you out of business, but local referral based modern originators that leverage technology super effectively for consumer will absolutely take market share from you. And it's happening. This isn't like this is going to happen. I mean, we're seeing it happen.

When you look at the data right now, you're seeing the, the most progressive, successful modern originators, they're doing pretty darn well. I mean, they're closing a lot of loans and then you're seeing loan officers that are still playing the transaction game.

It's just getting harder and harder to be that.

Brennan O'Connell: 00:31:00

Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.

Olivia DeLancey: 00:31:02

So I think I heard two really big takeaways there. Embrace technology and always aim to be helpful and useful to that end. Borrower.

Dave Savage: 00:31:12

Yeah.

Brennan O'Connell: 00:31:12

Boom.

Olivia DeLancey: 00:31:13

I think that has been the theme throughout this conversation, Dave. And while I'm sure we could talk to you much longer, we won't take all of your day. So with that, I would like to wrap up by posing a bonus question.

So as you may know, Dave, our mission at Optimal Blue is to help lenders maximize their profitability on every loan transaction so they can help more borrowers achieve homeownership. So with that, in your opinion, what is one thing lenders should be doing today to maximize their profitability?

Dave Savage: 00:31:44

Yeah, so I mean the data is just so clear on this, like the tip of the spear for lenders. And where profitability starts is that conversation at the point of sale.

And when that conversation at the point of sale gets into the real goals of the family, and when something other than a fee worksheet like here's your rate, here's your payment, here's your cash to close. But when you really show a presentation of value where you're showing options, you're showing the cost, over time it's more profitable.

I mean, we've had lots of loan officers, excuse me, lots of lenders do an analysis where it's like people that obviously I'm with Mortgage Coach, so they can, they can see the loan officers that are delivering Mortgage Coach to all their credit reports. And the lowest increase in profitability I've ever seen was a 9% increase in conversion and 6 basis points more in gross margin.

And in the most I've seen from NFM lending was 10% increase in conversion and like 64 basis points more profitable. So I just, I can't emphasize enough for both loan officers managers how that optimal blue price is delivered at the point of sale. It matters.

And it all really just comes down to training and leadership, you know, so I'm always pushing. You know, anybody listening to this, you're ahead of production. You're on that. The MVP is your producing managers.

You know, producing branch managers is where the change takes place.

So I'm always like, pushing, like, if you could get your producing branch managers to lead by example and, and then get your producing branch managers to start delivering beautiful, accurate, compliant, optimal blue pricing. But deliver that where it's highly localized, highly personalized, and it's helping the family make a better lifetime decision.

Guys, profitability is awaiting for you. You could be having higher conversion rates and you could be having higher gross margins. Like the data is the data.

Olivia DeLancey: 00:33:49

Excellent. Dave. Thank you so much for joining us today. And thank you everybody for tuning in to the Market Advantage podcast by Optimal Blue.

Look for our next episode on December 10th, where we'll examine November's rate lock activity and welcome another engaging guest conversation. Thanks and take care.

Brennan O'Connell: 00:34:06

Thanks a lot, Dave.

Dave Savage: 00:34:08

Take care, everybody.

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