Shownotes
As the U.S. looks ahead to Donald Trump once again taking office in January, the real estate and housing industry is watching closely. Given Trump’s previous term and recent rhetoric on the campaign trail, when the president-elect returns to the White House on January 20, the property market landscape could shift dramatically.
A Trump administration has historically leaned toward deregulation, favoring less federal oversight. This could mean a rollback of initiatives championed by the previous Biden administration and could spell major changes for property professionals, particularly in areas like climate policy, housing affordability, and regulatory reform.
From regulatory rollbacks to bipartisan debates over zoning, host Maiclaire Bolton Smith and Chay Halbert, a principal public policy and industry relations at CoreLogic, discuss the likely rollback of Biden-era climate initiatives, shifts in regulatory scrutiny, and the potential changes surrounding Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac oversight. Halbert also sheds light on potential flood risk management alterations and how these moves could reshape lending and affordability across the country.
Tune in to this episode of Core Conversations hear a comprehensive breakdown of the policy changes that property professionals should watch for as they prepare for what lies ahead.
In This Episode
2:24 – What types of housing policies do we expect Donald Trump to favor?
3:50 – Are there any specific changes we can expect around climate policy?
4:58 – Will there be any changes to Biden-era policies?
8:34 – How will the new administration influence interest rates?
10:32 – Affordability is complex, but will the rules around institutional and foreign investment change to help with this?
11:52 – Will there be any international ramifications from these possible policy changes?
13:43 – Erika Stanley does the numbers in the housing market in The Sip.
14:57 – How could federal policy changes affect local jurisdictions?
19:40 – Erika Stanley reviews natural catastrophes and extreme weather events across the world.
20:58 – What should property professionals pay attention to in the months leading up to an administration change?
Up Next: How to Solve the US Affordable Housing Crisis
Links:
Find full episodes with all our guests in our podcast archive here: https://clgx.co/3HFslXD4 Copyright 2024 CoreLogic
Transcripts
Chay Halbert:
Homes are made from wood and concrete, and it's like those don't all come from the United States. And so if you're going to be issuing pretty broad ranging tariffs on construction materials that come into the United States, it just stands to reason that those materials become more expensive, the homes that they're built out of become more expensive. And so that's something that they're going to have to think about when it comes to the balancing game.
Maiclaire Bolton Smith:
Welcome back to Core Conversations: A CoreLogic Podcast where we tour the property market to investigate how economics, climate change, governmental policies, and technology affect everyday life. I am your host Maiclaire Bolton Smith, and I'm just as curious as you are about everything that happens in our industry. It's official, one of the most anticipated elections in recent history has an outcome. Donald Trump has been elected president of the United States. He's only the second U.S. president in history to serve two non-consecutive terms. But now that President Trump is headed back to the White House, what does that mean for the property industry? He was, after all a real estate developer, before he was president. Presidential elections in the U.S. influence many things. When a new administration takes power, policies inevitably shift. And for those working in the property industry, which is the country's largest asset class, there is little doubt that a new administration will influence some aspect of their daily work lives. Even a new mandate to disclose details surrounding the impacts of climate change on businesses can result in a cascade of changes that redefine business practices across enterprises. But there's so much more than just climate policy. So to talk about the new administration and how it may impact the property market, we have Chay Halbert, a principle in public policy and industry relations at CoreLogic. Chay, welcome to Core Conversations.
CH:
Hello, glad to be here with you today.
Erika Stanley:
Before we get too far into this episode, I wanted to remind our listeners that we want to help you keep pace with the property market. To make it easy, we curate the latest insight and analysis for you on our social media where you can find us using the handle @CoreLogic on Facebook and LinkedIn or @CoreLogicInc. On X and Instagram. But now let's get back to Maiclaire and Chay.
MBS:
Okay, this is a big one. We have a lot to break down, so I'm really excited to dive into this with you. So let's just set the stage discussing what we know, I guess, about President Trump history and housing policy. He has been president once before, so we have some idea of what type of policies he favors. So what can we expect?
CH:
I think initially a lot of rhetoric will play into a lot of his policy decisions. Like most presidents, politics plays an important role in what he does and the decisions that he makes, but it's something that he definitely puts at the forefront and political considerations and the way that his supporters and people that voted for him think about his policies. He wears that on his sleeve. So when it comes to things like climate policy, disaster relief, these are all things that they will likely have a political element to them that is pretty explicit. And again, this is something he's not so different than other presidents in that sense, but it's something that he makes. He talks upfront about these kinds of things and the political nature of 'em.
MBS:
Okay. You mentioned climate policy. Is there anything specifically about, I mean, we talk a lot about climate on this podcast just given the nature of our business, but is there anything specifically about climate policy that we can expect?
CH:
I think you can expect to not expect things that a lot of the programs, a lot of the initiatives that have been started under Biden will likely be stopped. It's like they've been critical of the science behind climate change. They've certainly been, they ask a lot of questions when it comes to, it's like, what's happening? What is the science behind climate? And I think a lot of the initiatives to curtail greenhouse gases to change the way, it's like the change from gas stoves, those type of things. That's something that's been very vocal about is the electrification of appliances, for example. It's something that's probably going to put a stop to that. So when it comes to a lot of climate initiatives, I think you're going to see pauses. I think you're going to see rollbacks.
MBS:
Okay. Okay. Soche, you just mentioned that President Elect has been consistently vocal about how he doesn't support many of the policies that President Biden put in place over the last four years. What can we expect in terms of what he might change from some of these Biden era policies?
CH:
Well, I think top of mind, it's like the Biden administration. It's like they were very strident when it came to appraisal practices. They spent quite a bit of time. It's looking through the makeup of appraisers, their practices, the governing bodies that regulate them. You put together a task force called the Paved Task Force, and they had several findings. It's like around the way that appraisers appraise homes, depending on what neighborhood that they find them in. And so a lot of that work, I don't want to say it's been completed, but they have done a lot of work and I don't think you're going to see any follow up on that. They issued the PAVE Task Force issued a report, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if that just is the quietly end that over the next four years,
MBS:
Anything outside of appraisals that we can expect to see something that may change under this new administration?
CH:
Well, I can tell you within the first a hundred days or so, you're going to see a lot of different
Rollbacks of regulations and executive orders that were promulgated under Biden. It's one that I can think of is the Federal Flood Risk Management Standard. So that's actually a rule that started under Obama. He didn't get to finish it under Trump. They stopped the process. And then under Biden, they've rolled it out again. They've gotten pretty far down the road. I think with FFRMS, they've actually issued a final rule. So you probably will see an executive order that rolls that back yet again because he did it the first time. So when it comes to examining flood risk, say for example, like HUD multifamily projects,
The new rules around that, that may end up being undone when Trump gets into office again on the housing front. So when it comes to Fannie and Freddie Mac, FHFA, FHFA stands for the Federal Housing Finance Administration. You're sure to see a new administrator at FHFA under Trump, it was Calabria. Maybe he returns. There was certainly a lot of talk during the Trump administration of releasing Fannie and Freddie Mac releasing the GSEs. I'm sure that talk comes up again, I will say they had four years last time. It is very complicated releasing the GSEs. You can imagine that under any administration, you'd be a bit loath to relinquish control over something as big as important as Fannie and Freddie Mac from your ability to influence what they do. I'm sure it's probably something you'll see as a stated desire, but whether or not it actually happens, I kind of have my doubts because they did have a chance. They had one bite of the apple and they couldn't get it done.
MBS:
Okay. One thing that remains on everyone's minds is interest rates. We've talked a lot about that on this podcast already, and the Fed already started cutting them in September, and they're expected to make additional cuts this year as well. But will a new administration influence this decision making at all?
CH:
Well, I think they're certainly going to try. I think you can expect Powell to get essentially fired from his job. Trump has said as much so you'll have a new Fed chair, although it's important to consider that that person needs to be confirmed by the Senate. And maybe I'm jumping ahead a little bit here, but it does look like the Senate will probably under Republican control as well. The majority there will be pretty close, probably. I know we're recording the morning after the election. It looks like they probably have about 52 or 53 seats in the Senate, which is, it's more than what they need, but it is a close margin. And so in terms of who Trump picks as his Fed chair, that's still something that he doesn't get to do unilaterally. And the Fed itself, it's meant to be an independent body. It's meant to not be swayed by the political wins. Although I think Trump is going to try very hard. But in terms of actual real pressure or something that he could make the Fed do, there's really no levers for him to pull there outside of appointing the chair. And it would take an act of Congress. Congress would've to pass a law to give the president authority to make direct changes at the Fed or to make direct policy decisions. And while it's certainly, it's not out of the question, I think that would be extremely difficult to get that through both chambers of Congress, even if they are controlled by the same party.
MBS:
I want to talk about affordability. It's also another major concern in this country. And while all the reasons for the current state of affordability are very complex, many do point to institutional and foreign investment. So do we think rules around this might change in this new administration?
CH:
I think it's possible. This is one area where you do have a lot of bipartisan agreement in terms of at a minimum concern about foreign investment, foreign real estate investment. So Trump, he has often cited his concern about foreign investments about, for example, a Chinese investment. And I can't imagine that he's going to drop those concerns once he enters the White House. Although again, this is something that it will likely require some kind of congressional action. And this is something that Congress has been looking at and there are some bills out there. They haven't really gotten any traction will they in a Trump administration? That's an open question, but in terms of this is not something that's going to go away. It's like there is a fair amount of agreement on both sides in terms of, again, like I said, at least concern about foreign investment in real estate.
MBS:
Sure. Okay. This international perspective is an interesting one. I am not originally from this country and there's still a lot about US politics that I don't really understand, but I know that every country around the world has been watching this, has been watching what's going to happen with the US election. So I guess from that international point of view, is there anything else specifically that those in other countries might expect to see?
CH:
Well, again, we can take Trump at his word. He's talked quite a bit about tariffs. He's, he's talked quite a bit about protecting the American market. And when you think, again, to take it back to the housing affordability issue and housing supply is a big part of that. And homes are made from wood and concrete, and it's like those don't all come from the United States. And so if you're going to be issuing pretty broad ranging tariffs on construction materials that come into the United States as it stands to reason that those materials become more expensive, the homes that they're built out of become more expensive. And so that's something that they're going to have to Trump is really going to have to think about. Congress is really going to have to think about when it comes to the balancing game of their stated concern of protecting the American market. Well, at the same time, everybody's stated concern on both sides of the aisle about the cost of housing in this country. That's something that I think we're all going to want to pay very close attention to, because I guess it's maybe like a deflated balloon. You squeeze on one side, it's going to get bigger on the other. It all has to go somewhere.
MBS:
And I'm sure everyone will be watching very closely.
ES:
% in August,:MBS:
Okay. I think it's also worth mentioning that federal policies do eventually trickle down to the local level. So if we're thinking about the property industry, it does mean influencing building and zoning regulations, which could influence the overall supply of homes that we have in the us, which is already a big issue that we talk about a lot. What do we expect to happen here under the Trump administration?
CH:
I think it's safe to assume that you can see more of the same of what's already been happening. It's like when you look at municipalities and localities, they are moving towards deregulation. They are moving towards
Loosening zoning, and these are in places that are traditionally controlled by Democrats. It's like you see in California, you see in Minnesota, you see all over there are places, small places, large places, that are changing their zoning requirements to allow for more density. And again, this is something that is fairly bipartisan when it comes to deregulation. When it comes to loosening rules. Those are typically, it's typically like the Bailey Wick of conservative politics to want to do that. But I think it's something that, again, given the current state of supply, even the more liberal position, the democratic position is to take another look at zoning and to think about allowing for more density. So I think that's going to continue. And that's something where the White House Congress, they have a limited number of levers that they can pull there. One of the bigger ones are highway dollars.
So when it comes to infrastructure spending, that goes to all the states and all the municipalities, Congress, the president, they do have control over that, and they can certainly use that carrot, so to speak, to get municipalities to do things that they would like them to do. But it's a carrot that's so big, it's almost a stick. It's a lot of money. And so if it is the desire of Congress, if it is the desire of the Trump administration to get more loosening of zoning restrictions, to get more density, you can look at highway dollars of one way to cajole municipalities into changing the rules so that they can get their share of those dollars. But I do think it is something overall that a lot of folks are moving in the same direction on this.
MBS:
On this topic of regulation, is there anything we can expect from insurance regulation that may change for the insurance industry?
CH:
I can tell you that again, this is another place that the federal government has a pretty difficult time exerting their will over. It's like there's explicit law that prevents the federal government from regulating insurance industries. It's not to say that they're certainly concerned about it when it comes to members on Capitol Hill, the president now, and President Trump in the future, they're going to continue to be concerned about it. I'm sure all of the listeners are pretty well aware of the issues that are going on with insurance affordability, with the increasing frequency and severity of natural disaster, that it's causing premiums to get really expensive. And everybody's looking at this, what Congress can do about it, what the president can do about it, that's a bit more limited. There's certainly the bully pulpit. They can certainly talk a lot about it. They can certainly, Congress can certainly hold hearings and they can ask tough questions. They can come up with their own ideas. And there has been some limited floating of government programs. So it's like insurers of last resort, so to speak, at a federal level,
That would be difficult. I don't think you have to look too much further than the NFIP, the National Flood Insurance Program. And with, again, the increasing frequency and severity of flooding that's happened. It's a program that's under a lot of strain. And so the idea of starting another program that's meant to cover wildfire or hurricane, it doesn't take a big leap of faith to understand that it's going to run into the same problems that the NFIP has run into. Is that something that Congress wants to step into? I am not so sure, but they know that it's something, it's hurting their constituents. There's a lot of people that are suffering because of the current situation with insurance. And so it's something that they'll continue to talk about it for sure, what they can do about it. That's a much bigger question.
ES:
Before we end this episode, let's take a break and talk about what's happening in the world of natural disasters. CoreLogic's Hazard HQ command Central reports on natural catastrophes and extreme weather events across the world. A link to their coverage is in the show notes. October brought two major hurricanes, Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton. Hurricane Helene brought heavy rain and hurricane force winds to large portions of the southeast. The heavy rainfall caused catastrophic riverine flooding in the mountainous regions of Western North Carolina. CoreLogic estimated insured wind and flood losses to be between $10.5 billion in $17.5 billion. Uninsured losses are estimated at between $20 billion and $30 billion, highlighting the growing insurance gap problem in the us, especially with regards to flooding. Just days later, hurricane Milton brought devastating damage to Florida CoreLogic estimated insured wind and flood losses from Hurricane Milton will be between $17 billion and $28 billion. Outside of the U.S., the end of October saw super Typhoon Kong Ray head toward Taiwan. This powerful late season storm traveled across the Philippine Sea as a category four hurricane equivalent storm before making landfall on the east coast of Taiwan.
MBS:
Yeah. Well, I guess to finish off, Chay, probably the thing that people want to know most is if you pull out that crystal ball of yours that you have been looking into for all of this, what are some of the major policy points that property professionals should really pay attention to in these next few months before the new administration takes office?
CH:
So I think when it comes to regulation across the board as it applies to housing lending, I think the stringent regulation is going to be rolled back or it's going to be put on pause. I brought up the scrutiny around appraisal. That scrutiny probably dies down. I think also what you're going to see is significant reprogramming of dollars at a lot of different agencies. And so what I mean there is that if you look at the, and under the AB Biden administration, they passed the Inflation reduction Act, which raised a lot of money for lots of different government programs across the board, especially when it comes to climate change. When it comes to electrification, I think you're going to see a lot of reprogramming of those dollars. And what that is, is that money that hasn't been spent being moved to some other priority within the agency.
Now, I can tell you, when it comes to reprogramming, it's not willy-nilly. They have to, there are certain rules and regulations around that. And if they move too much money or if they move money into something that's so far outside of what it was meant to be spent on, the agency has to go back to Congress and ask for that permission to do that. But as we were talking about earlier, you're looking at a situation where you may, even if it's a slim majority in the House and Senate, the Republicans will possibly control the House and Senate. And so if they go back to Congress to ask for that reprogramming, they may have a sympathetic year in Congress.
We'll have to see about that. And then I think there will be probably pretty significant discussion about GSE reform, about Fannie and Freddie Mac. But again, I think everybody listening to this understands that that's going to be really complicated. There's a lot of hurdles there. There's a lot of heartache there. And they have tried before. They've gone pretty far down the road when it comes to introducing legislation, and they've certainly discussed it quite a bit. The held hearings, are they going to start that up again? I'm sure they will. How far do they get anybody's guess? But mine, I would imagine that the GSCs probably still remain under Conservative Shift, even at the end of the Trump tank.
MBS:
Okay. Okay. Well, Chay, there's a lot to be seen. I think the one thing that is inevitable is change upon us, but we will wait and see how everything unfolds. Thank you so much, cha, for unpacking this and joining me today, this morning after the election. I know you had a really long night last night, and thank you for joining me on Core Conversations: A CoreLogic Podcast.
CH:
Thank you Maiclaire. It was great speaking with you as well.
MBS:
Okay. And thank you for listening. I hope you've enjoyed our latest episode. Please remember to leave us a review and let us know your thoughts and subscribe wherever you get your podcast to be notified when new episodes are released. And thanks to the team for helping bring this podcast to life producer Jessi Devenyns, editor and sound engineer, Romie Aromin, our facts guru, Erika Stanley and social media duo, Sarah Buck and Makaila Brooks. Tune in next time for another core conversation.
ES:
Are you still there? Well, thanks for sticking around. Are you curious to know a little bit more about our guest today? Chay Halbert holds the position of principal public policy and industry relations at CoreLogic. He develops and manages relationship building efforts between the company and policymakers at the local, state, and federal level. Before coming to CoreLogic, Chay worked as a legislative assistant to Representative Mark Takano covering a broad portfolio including appropriations, armed services, energy and environment, Homeland Security housing policy in the judiciary. He earned a Bachelor's degree in political science from the University of California, Riverside.
