First-Time Buyers Have Waited Years for This Market: Here's What Actually Happened

Artwork for podcast The Ottawa Real Estate Podcast

Episode 253 • 25th March 2026 • The Ottawa Real Estate Podcast • TOREP

00:00:00 00:48:06

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First time buyers in Canada have been told to wait, save more, and be patient for years now, and the market has not rewarded that patience. In this episode we sit down with Shaun Cathcart, Senior Economist at the Canadian Real Estate Association, and we get into what the actual data says about where the Canadian real estate market stands right now, how mortgage rate swings and global events are reshaping what buyers can realistically afford, and whether the long awaited recovery is something buyers can actually count on or just another headline that fades. Shaun also breaks down the housing supply problem in a way that makes clear why building more homes is not as simple as politicians make it sound.

If you are a first time buyer in Ottawa or anywhere in Ontario trying to figure out whether now is the time to move, this conversation gives you the clearest picture available right now from someone who works with the data every single day.

00:00 Intro

02:52 Market Uncertainty and Economic Factors

05:32 The Impact of Rising Mortgage Rates

08:56 First-Time Buyers and Market Dynamics

11:11 The Missing Middle in Housing Development

16:19 The Role of Purpose-Built Rentals

22:40 Future Predictions for the Condo Market

26:14 Reallocating Housing Resources

28:41 Land Transfer Tax Credits for Downsizing

33:09 Job Market Dynamics in Ottawa

40:10 Spring Market Trends and Predictions

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