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Realpolitik with Range (Trade Value Leaders Index P2)
Episode 1910th July 2025 • Geopolitical Cousins • Jacob Shapiro & Marko Papic
00:00:00 02:06:09

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Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic deliver part two of their Trade Value Leaders ranking—a spirited, analytical exercise measuring global leaders by their geopolitical utility. Shapiro leans into controversial picks like Lula and Netanyahu, defends the logic behind selecting Orban, and emphasizes competence over charisma. Marko defends bold picks like Syria’s al-Julani and Hungary’s Orban, and pushes back on overrated legacy players (like Lula). The two dive into emerging talent like Albania’s Rama and Uzbekistan’s Mirziyoyev while voicing concern over leaders without clear succession plans. The top of the list features figures like Sheinbaum, Meloni, and MBS, with Trump and Putin notably excluded for strategic blunders. It’s a sharp, irreverent take on global leadership dynamics.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:58) - The Trade Value Leaders List

(03:53) - Controversial Picks and Listener Feedback

(06:27) - Deep Dives into Specific Leaders

(11:04) - Comparing Leaders to Basketball Players

(14:18) - The Legacy Question and Future Leaders

(20:27v Top Picks and Their Geopolitical Impact

(41:44) - Moral Equivalency Debate

(42:59) - Technical Difficulties and Top Two Leaders

(48:10) - Georgia Maloney's Economic Turnaround

(50:09) - Claudia Shane Baum's Leadership in Mexico

(52:01) - Discussion on Vladimir Putin's Leadership

(01:06:36) - Debate on Zelensky's Leadership

(01:19:02) - Xi Jinping's Strategic Missteps

(01:21:31) - China's Social Welfare Failures

(01:22:51) - Xi Jinping's Rise to Power

(01:24:35) - Xi Jinping's Nationalism and Economic Policies

(01:26:03) - Xi Jinping's Challenges and Leadership Style

(01:28:58) - Debating Xi Jinping's Impact

(01:37:38) - Trump's Leadership and Controversies

(01:42:07) - Evaluating Trump's Domestic and Foreign Policies

(02:04:42) - Final Thoughts on Trump and Leadership Rankings

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Transcripts

Jacob Shapiro:

Hello listeners, welcome to Geopolitical Cousins.

Jacob Shapiro:

This is our postmortem of the Trade Value Leaders column piece,

Jacob Shapiro:

whatever you want to call it.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, Marco and I said we were gonna do an hour and a half and we ended up

Jacob Shapiro:

doing two plus hours, so enjoy yourself.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, we, we saved the conversation for why Trump is not on either

Jacob Shapiro:

of our lists towards the end.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, I'm sure that will cause lots of controversy, but whatever.

Jacob Shapiro:

We love your hate mail and we love to hear from you.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, jacob@jacobshari.com, marco@geopoliticalalpha.com.

Jacob Shapiro:

You can send us feedback there.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, otherwise we're having fun.

Jacob Shapiro:

We're hope you're having fun.

Jacob Shapiro:

We're hoping that if you like this podcast, you will share it with your

Jacob Shapiro:

friends and your cousins and your neighbors and everybody else, and leave

Jacob Shapiro:

reviews on the podcast, if you will.

Jacob Shapiro:

That is also super helpful.

Jacob Shapiro:

So take care of the people that you love.

Jacob Shapiro:

We'll see you out there.

Jacob Shapiro:

Take us away, Marco.

Marko Papic:

Alright, well, super.

Marko Papic:

Um, this is the part two of our top 30 leaders in the world, the trade value.

Marko Papic:

Uh, just as a little reminder for all those of you who missed the first one.

Marko Papic:

So what we're trying to do here is we're effectively trying to, uh, create a list

Marko Papic:

of, um, policy makers, politicians in the world if you were able to trade them.

Marko Papic:

So the, the person that ends up being top on our list, uh, is

Marko Papic:

technically untraded tradable.

Marko Papic:

Whereas somebody who ends up 30th on the list, you would trade

Marko Papic:

for the 29 in front of them.

Marko Papic:

Um, now there are over 190 countries in the world.

Marko Papic:

So if you are the last on the list, it doesn't mean you're a terrible leader.

Marko Papic:

It just, it means you're better than all of those who we did

Marko Papic:

not put on our, uh, list.

Marko Papic:

Also, uh, an important point here is that we're assuming that

Marko Papic:

there are some qualities that are universal to leadership.

Marko Papic:

So, uh, just as a reminder, if you didn't follow our part one, uh, it means

Marko Papic:

that we're basically saying that, uh, it know these are policy makers who

Marko Papic:

overcome the constraints they face.

Marko Papic:

That's what we like.

Marko Papic:

We like those who make something out of nothing.

Marko Papic:

And unfortunately, yes, that's going to, uh, favor, you know,

Marko Papic:

leaders of smaller countries.

Marko Papic:

So in the, in part one, Jacob and I both submitted our, uh, top 30.

Marko Papic:

Obviously there was a ton of overlap there, but there were 14 leaders,

Marko Papic:

14 across the two of us that were either on one or the other's list.

Marko Papic:

And so those were obviously penalized a lot.

Marko Papic:

So even if you were in Jacob's top 10, but you were not in my top 30,

Marko Papic:

you effectively got ejected from the top 30 list, more or less.

Marko Papic:

It's, it's very difficult to, to be, uh, near the top at that level.

Marko Papic:

So, um, we ended up with 44.

Marko Papic:

So, uh, I'm, I'm gonna start off from the bottom.

Marko Papic:

Jacob, you just interrupt me at any point.

Marko Papic:

If you want, we can post the list somewhere as well.

Marko Papic:

Um, yeah, we'll, we will.

Marko Papic:

Yes, for sure.

Marko Papic:

So the 44th is Abby Ahmed from Ethiopia.

Marko Papic:

Uh, that was Jacob's pick.

Marko Papic:

Very, uh, you went deep in your back for that one.

Marko Papic:

That was a, that was a good pick.

Marko Papic:

Uh, 43rd was Donald Tusk from Poland, by, by me.

Marko Papic:

Lots of, uh, pro Polish propaganda out there.

Marko Papic:

You know, the Economist had Poland on the, on the cover.

Marko Papic:

Tusk managed to squirrel his way to our, uh, top 44.

Marko Papic:

Uh, one thing I will say about Donald Tusk, he may be a better

Marko Papic:

EU commissioner, the leader of Poland, but let's leave that aside.

Marko Papic:

Um, Slovenia's Robert Goup was 42nd.

Marko Papic:

That was me going deep into my bag.

Marko Papic:

I felt like some Balkan representation from former Yugoslavia was needed.

Marko Papic:

Uh, it's more about what Goup has done in disrupting the politics of Slovenia,

Marko Papic:

you know, coming out of nowhere.

Marko Papic:

And it's also just because I'm a huge Laker fan, and Luca Doche is

Marko Papic:

my Jesus Christ Lord and Savior.

Marko Papic:

So, uh, 41st o Christen, uh, lots of hate mail from, uh, Scandinavia, by the

Marko Papic:

way, for both the 40 41st and the 39th.

Marko Papic:

39th pick was met f Fredrickson.

Marko Papic:

So data leaders.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah, I'm, I'm, I'm surprised that one was controversial.

Jacob Shapiro:

Maybe I, maybe I'm just off here, but I think she's great.

Jacob Shapiro:

Anyway.

Marko Papic:

Well, well, what I would say is like, one of the consistent things

Marko Papic:

that came out of this exercise is that if you are in the west, if you're a, if

Marko Papic:

you are listening to us from the western world, which most of our, uh, listeners

Marko Papic:

are invariably you hate your leader.

Marko Papic:

I mean, that is what we have learned from doing this exercise because the amount of

Marko Papic:

hate mail we got for doing this exercise where our listeners are like, man, I

Marko Papic:

love the MBS aspect, like you nailed MBS, but let me tell you about my prime

Marko Papic:

minister of my perfectly run country.

Marko Papic:

They are complete and utter morons.

Marko Papic:

So, uh, we got more hate mail for the 41st and the 39th pick than anyone else.

Marko Papic:

Also, um, there was some constructive, uh, uh, feedback about the Nordics,

Marko Papic:

uh, which I thought was really good.

Marko Papic:

And I think my, maybe we did, uh, drop the ball.

Marko Papic:

President of Finland, uh, Stubb came up couple of times.

Marko Papic:

Hey, God bless you for that difficult place to run.

Marko Papic:

Uh, both because politics, uh, in Finland have been in a state of transition just

Marko Papic:

like they have been in neighboring Sweden.

Marko Papic:

So lots of new parties coming up, the true fins rising, falling, uh, you

Marko Papic:

know, transition away from a immature populist party towards a kind of a

Marko Papic:

center right, you know, leadership party.

Marko Papic:

So that was interesting.

Marko Papic:

But also obviously the elephant in the room.

Marko Papic:

Largest, uh, land border of any NATO country with Russia now joining nato.

Marko Papic:

So maybe we did, um, ignore Finland here and, uh, well, I, I

Jacob Shapiro:

just wanna say, I just wanna say I seriously considered Finland.

Jacob Shapiro:

I just didn't include Finland because I'm still mourning the loss

Jacob Shapiro:

of Sauna Marin, who, I'm not saying she was a great geopolitical leader.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm sure we'll get more hate mail if I said that.

Jacob Shapiro:

Just like, uh, this is politically incorrect.

Jacob Shapiro:

Had a crush on her.

Jacob Shapiro:

She's, she's awesome.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, I couldn't, couldn't make the transition.

Jacob Shapiro:

Sorry.

Marko Papic:

Jacob had a crush on the leader of Finland.

Marko Papic:

That's fair.

Marko Papic:

Uh, and that she left and UB just didn't do it for you, you

Marko Papic:

know, so like, there you go.

Marko Papic:

Uh, but yeah, so, uh, I do feel like that was, that,

Jacob Shapiro:

that, by that by the way, folks, that's the level of

Jacob Shapiro:

analysis that we're giving you here.

Jacob Shapiro:

I just want you to understand.

Marko Papic:

Sorry.

Marko Papic:

Well, I mean, you know, if Mario Draggy was still around, I would've

Marko Papic:

picked him just because I have a man crush on him, as I said.

Marko Papic:

So yes, uh, that is, that is perfectly fine.

Marko Papic:

It's our list, Jacob.

Marko Papic:

We own it.

Marko Papic:

We do whatever we want with it.

Marko Papic:

Um, Egypt, Egypt's, uh, l ccc, uh, 40th, the Jacobs Pick.

Marko Papic:

Kind of jealous of that.

Marko Papic:

Well done.

Marko Papic:

Then Provo, Subianto, Indonesia 38th also.

Marko Papic:

Jacobs Pick, A lot of these are very individualistic.

Marko Papic:

The two of us did not necessarily agree on these.

Marko Papic:

Uh, but that's fine.

Marko Papic:

We didn't, I'm sorry.

Marko Papic:

I mean, we actually agree on most of these.

Marko Papic:

We just didn't, uh, have them on our combined list.

Marko Papic:

37th, Christopher Luxon from New Zealand.

Marko Papic:

Uh, 30, uh, sorry, that was 37, 30 sixth Anwar Ibrahim from

Marko Papic:

Malaysia, New Zealand was your pick.

Marko Papic:

Malaysia was mine.

Marko Papic:

35th.

Marko Papic:

Okay.

Marko Papic:

So you got a lot of hate mail for this Jacob.

Marko Papic:

And I'm gonna let you take all this hate mail.

Marko Papic:

Uh, I'm not gonna share this with you.

Marko Papic:

You did pick Ki Starr.

Jacob Shapiro:

I did, did

Marko Papic:

I think it's defensible,

Marko Papic:

but I didn't want to pick him.

Marko Papic:

And uh, yeah, there, there was a lot of, again, woe is me.

Marko Papic:

I live in an O-E-C-D-G 20, uh, you know, first world country.

Marko Papic:

And my leaders are terrible, but oh boy, do I look that love that Victor Orban.

Marko Papic:

So that's one of those where we got some hit mail.

Marko Papic:

Another, uh, I

Jacob Shapiro:

I also just wanna say about Kiir, like remember that

Jacob Shapiro:

this list is like you would trade for the people in front of you.

Jacob Shapiro:

So he was number 22 on my list.

Jacob Shapiro:

So I'm saying that anybody below him would wanna trade for him.

Jacob Shapiro:

So there's still 21 leaders out there that I'd, that I'm saying,

Jacob Shapiro:

um, are not better than Ki Starer.

Jacob Shapiro:

And also just like, think of the incompetence that he inherited from

Jacob Shapiro:

Liz Trust and you and everything else.

Jacob Shapiro:

And things are not like, completely broken.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, not to mention Brexit and everything else.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like he's, he is uninspiring, he's relatively boring.

Jacob Shapiro:

He's perfectly competent.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like he, he's a boring, competent leader of a very fractious democracy.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like that gets him, that gets him points in my book.

Jacob Shapiro:

That's all.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's, I'm not saying that he's the greatest thing since sliced bread.

Jacob Shapiro:

He is not.

Marko Papic:

And listen, I, I'm letting you take this hit meal.

Marko Papic:

I am, I'm not gonna share with you.

Marko Papic:

But I agree with you because he did inherit a terrible situation.

Marko Papic:

Um, he hasn't made it worse.

Marko Papic:

And quite frankly, I put Matt Frederickson almost exclusively because of her handling

Marko Papic:

of effectively American, uh, aggression.

Marko Papic:

You know, like the United States of America is the threatening

Marko Papic:

to seize Greenland from Denmark.

Marko Papic:

She handled that well.

Marko Papic:

I mean, Keith Star, uh, ki Starmer just purely for handling the

Marko Papic:

trade negotiations with the US, I think should get some props.

Marko Papic:

I mean, he handled it, I think, better than most countries.

Marko Papic:

Obviously.

Marko Papic:

He got the trade deal first, and so he got out of that wave, uh,

Marko Papic:

very, very quickly, which was very, you know, tricky for a labor prime

Marko Papic:

minister of the United Kingdom.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

I mean, he is ideologically opposed, uh, like ideologically.

Marko Papic:

He and Donald Trump are obviously not on the same plane.

Marko Papic:

So I thought that was a a, you know, I think, I think it's not a crazy pick.

Marko Papic:

The next one.

Marko Papic:

I do think you were completely out to lunch.

Marko Papic:

Um, maybe you also have a crush on Lula the Silva, but, uh,

Marko Papic:

you did pick him very high.

Marko Papic:

Um, I thought that was looking backwards.

Marko Papic:

Now forward he is 34th.

Marko Papic:

We got I think, a little bit, a little bit of hate mail.

Marko Papic:

I got some texts about it.

Marko Papic:

Um, one of my friends, uh, who's in finance basically said next

Marko Papic:

to the dictionary definition of corruption is Lula's picture.

Marko Papic:

So, you know, 34th.

Marko Papic:

Um.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think that, that, that's fine.

Jacob Shapiro:

But literally, show me a leader on here who is not corrupt.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I'll show you a chipmunk that speaks Swahili.

Jacob Shapiro:

I mean, really, you, you're telling me that politicians and leaders

Jacob Shapiro:

are not corrupt to get to the top.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like that's not a meaning.

Jacob Shapiro:

I, I think the pushback that his best days are behind him, that he

Jacob Shapiro:

doesn't actually control congress.

Jacob Shapiro:

That he's actually, he's using 2008 policies for a very different multiple

Jacob Shapiro:

environment and there's no successor.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like there's lots of different ways I think you could go at the Lula pick.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'll tell you though, one of the things that, I didn't mention this when we

Jacob Shapiro:

talked about it, um, I actually used to shit on Lula a lot more and hung out

Jacob Shapiro:

with a couple of Brazilians and, you know, you're, you're gonna know who the

Jacob Shapiro:

Brazilians are or what their ideology is based on whether they like Lula or not.

Jacob Shapiro:

But, but, but was sort of slapped on the hand being like, uh, Lula,

Jacob Shapiro:

like change things in Brazil.

Jacob Shapiro:

No matter what you think of him.

Jacob Shapiro:

He's a formidable politician with an idea of Brazil's future.

Jacob Shapiro:

And he got closer to realizing Brazil's potential than literally

Jacob Shapiro:

any Brazilian leader ever.

Jacob Shapiro:

Arguably.

Jacob Shapiro:

So like, I, I definitely was like, privileging some past performance,

Jacob Shapiro:

but even, even if you don't like him ideologically, like pre pre Brazil Lula

Jacob Shapiro:

and post Brazil Lula, like, I think he deserves, um, some of the credit there.

Jacob Shapiro:

But I, I al Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

Sorry, go ahead.

Jacob Shapiro:

You meant

Marko Papic:

Prej pre jail and post jail.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yes.

Jacob Shapiro:

Sorry.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yes.

Jacob Shapiro:

Oh

Marko Papic:

no, sorry.

Marko Papic:

Yeah, yeah.

Marko Papic:

Sorry.

Marko Papic:

Go ahead.

Marko Papic:

I didn't mean to interrupt you, just

Jacob Shapiro:

No, no.

Marko Papic:

Um, well, what I, what I would also say about Lula is that, um.

Marko Papic:

You know, we, we are modeling this on Bill Simmons, uh, trade value for

Marko Papic:

basketball players, which is awesome.

Marko Papic:

And one of the things that, um, you know, goes into establishing

Marko Papic:

the trade value for a basketball player is not just this skill.

Marko Papic:

So when you think about Lula, he clearly is over the course of his career and

Marko Papic:

incredibly adapt politician, he wrangled congress to pa pass pension reform.

Marko Papic:

I mean, this is like a Maoist like guerrilla leader for God's sakes,

Marko Papic:

you know, passing pension reform that OECD gave a thumbs up to.

Marko Papic:

So, so he's an incredibly skilled player of this game.

Marko Papic:

But the two things that go in addition, um, in the Bill Simmons basketball analogy

Marko Papic:

of this is like, how young are they?

Marko Papic:

How much future do they have?

Marko Papic:

So you don't want to necessarily trade a 23-year-old basketball

Marko Papic:

player with a lot of upside for a 39-year-old, 40-year-old LeBron, even

Marko Papic:

though LeBron is better right now.

Marko Papic:

So that's a knock on Lula as well.

Marko Papic:

Uh, I mean, to be fair, it is also a knock on my pick of Anwar Ibrahim who got six.

Marko Papic:

He's been around for 40 years.

Marko Papic:

Uh, the other issue also with Lula is the, the contract issue.

Marko Papic:

You know, so, um, on the Bill Simmons basketball analogy of what we're doing

Marko Papic:

here is like you contract matters.

Marko Papic:

If you're a 23-year-old basketball player, young, you've got another 10,

Marko Papic:

15 years ahead of you and you're on a rookie deal, oh my god, that's so much

Marko Papic:

better than being in, in your thirties.

Marko Papic:

Your knees are already hurt and you are, you know, 30,

Marko Papic:

$40 million a year with Lula.

Marko Papic:

That's also like, you know, when politicians overstay their welcome.

Marko Papic:

And so I do think that the, the comp here between the real world in the

Marko Papic:

basketball world, the rookie contract is sort of like the honeymoon phase, right?

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

When you get elected for the first time, or you just seize

Marko Papic:

power in a coup, God bless you.

Marko Papic:

You know, like we're, we're, we're neutral here, you know, but whatever kind of

Marko Papic:

seizing of power you are involved in those first couple of years, you kind

Marko Papic:

of, on your rookie contract, you're, you're cheap if you will, you know,

Marko Papic:

you're, you have that fresh new car smell.

Marko Papic:

And so I think that, uh, with Lula, that's definitely not the case.

Marko Papic:

So what I would say about Lula is he's like Paul Pierce late in his

Marko Papic:

career, you know, he's still got a chance to hit a game-winning

Marko Papic:

jumper, but he's kind of overweight.

Marko Papic:

He's probably out in the clubs too long and he's about

Marko Papic:

to launch a podcast with kg.

Marko Papic:

So I would say that Lula Lula is like about two to three years away from

Marko Papic:

doing a podcast with like, um, I don't know, the parishioners, I don't know.

Marko Papic:

Like with somebody.

Marko Papic:

Well,

Jacob Shapiro:

yeah, and I, I take your point.

Jacob Shapiro:

I actually think the biggest argument against Lula, and I think he shares

Jacob Shapiro:

this quality with a couple other folks on our list that will be higher up.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think he shares it with Narendra Modi, I think he shares this with, uh,

Jacob Shapiro:

Erdogan and Turkey for a little bit.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I think Claudia Shane Baum, who we're gonna give a lot of, a

Jacob Shapiro:

lot of d to on this podcast, like also needs to be aware of this.

Jacob Shapiro:

His legacy as a leader is, is not looking particularly good.

Jacob Shapiro:

Who is one is the next Lula.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like what is the future of the Brazilian left when there's no Lula?

Jacob Shapiro:

He cannibalized the left.

Jacob Shapiro:

What could have been a movement that brought Brazil and his image of Brazil

Jacob Shapiro:

forward for generations has sort of been subsumed, as you said, in this

Jacob Shapiro:

sort of corruption, charisma, personal leadership, uh, sort of figure.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I think that's something that Modi is really struggling with.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like who takes over when Modi's gone?

Jacob Shapiro:

Is the BJP still gonna be the BJP when Modi's not on top of it?

Jacob Shapiro:

If you're extrapolating today, maybe not Erdogan, he's casting

Jacob Shapiro:

about, is it his son-in-law?

Jacob Shapiro:

Is it somebody else?

Jacob Shapiro:

Like who's the successor that follows through?

Jacob Shapiro:

And with Shane Baum too, like Shane Baum is the leader of a party that

Jacob Shapiro:

looks like it's gonna just be the pre, again, it looks like it's

Jacob Shapiro:

gonna try to be a single party.

Jacob Shapiro:

Dictatorship in Mexico.

Jacob Shapiro:

And even though I think she's very adept and pragmatic and all these other things,

Jacob Shapiro:

what happens when the next person is not and takes the mere and machine and does it

Jacob Shapiro:

for things that absolutely should terrify Mexicans and people who are thinking

Jacob Shapiro:

about the Mexican economy in general.

Jacob Shapiro:

So for me, the biggest shot against Lula is not what he's done so far.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think he's been very skilled and, you know, corruption aside, whatever,

Jacob Shapiro:

these people are all corrupt.

Jacob Shapiro:

But I don't know, I don't know that his legacy will look particularly

Jacob Shapiro:

good because I think that he let these things get to his own head.

Jacob Shapiro:

So if I'm arguing against myself, that's, that's I think my weak point.

Marko Papic:

You know, first of all, to answer your question,

Marko Papic:

who takes over from Modi?

Marko Papic:

I would, I would pay money to see Sue m Ja, Shankar, Ja Shankar,

Marko Papic:

the Foreign Minister of India.

Marko Papic:

Listen, if you don't know what I'm talking about, that's perfectly cool.

Marko Papic:

This podcast is just for normal people.

Marko Papic:

Go on YouTube and Google.

Marko Papic:

S Ja Shankar, the foreign minister of India.

Marko Papic:

Um, the, I mean, this guy, uh, actually that's not how you say it.

Marko Papic:

It's a minister of external affairs.

Marko Papic:

Um, yeah, yeah.

Marko Papic:

But, uh, the guy, he's t guys, he's brilliant.

Marko Papic:

He's a g Maybe we should do this for ministers of Foreign Affairs.

Marko Papic:

That would be kind of cool.

Marko Papic:

The top 10.

Marko Papic:

We should like Avi, Avi Lav is like LeBron, but like we put that aside.

Marko Papic:

Uh, I think that Chen Carr is amazing.

Marko Papic:

He's only four years younger than Modi do, so I don't think

Marko Papic:

he would be really a replacement.

Marko Papic:

But, but this is an interesting point.

Marko Papic:

We didn't actually think about this, this legacy question like who comes after you?

Marko Papic:

That is not something that you would, uh, really have in a basketball trade value.

Marko Papic:

Maybe we were over indexing to it, but Bill Simmons does talk about people who

Marko Papic:

raise the quality of their teammates.

Marko Papic:

Right.

Marko Papic:

That is important.

Marko Papic:

And I do think that, you know, when you, when you think about that, who

Marko Papic:

does come after, uh, Lula, who comes after Modi to, to give AMLO credit?

Marko Papic:

I mean, he did create Shiba.

Marko Papic:

Yes.

Marko Papic:

Did, I mean, you know, like, and he stepped aside and he's now,

Marko Papic:

you know, uh, sort of like an, uh, like an old advisor, like a grandpa

Marko Papic:

or like a Vito Corleone Right.

Marko Papic:

In, uh, in Godfather.

Marko Papic:

I mean, I think that's, that's amazing.

Marko Papic:

And to AM's credit, he's really, uh, he should be high on this

Marko Papic:

list as well, if he was still, um.

Marko Papic:

Playing.

Jacob Shapiro:

Well, I, I, I, I actually do think that, just to close it out on

Jacob Shapiro:

Lula, I, I do think there is a basketball metaphor here though, for the trade

Jacob Shapiro:

list because, and we had one listener write in and compare Lula to LeBron, and

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm jealous of the comparison because it's dead on because like the legacy

Jacob Shapiro:

thing comes in when you're LeBron and you're forcing the Lakers to, uh, get

Jacob Shapiro:

Russell Westbrook on the team because you think that's what's gonna happen.

Jacob Shapiro:

You're gonna leave unless you get Russell Westbrook on the team.

Jacob Shapiro:

That's what I'm talking about.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

I see that.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, you're selling the future, you're forcing your organization

Jacob Shapiro:

to do what you want right now.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yes.

Jacob Shapiro:

And not setting them up for long term when you retire.

Jacob Shapiro:

So I, I think there's an aspect of that.

Marko Papic:

Yeah, that's true.

Marko Papic:

I, I see that point.

Marko Papic:

That's actually pretty good.

Marko Papic:

And I mean, you're, you're 40 years old and still putting up points, but,

Marko Papic:

you know, are they empty calories?

Marko Papic:

Okay.

Marko Papic:

Uh, next one is also your pick.

Marko Papic:

So we got three picks of yours, 33.

Marko Papic:

Victor Orban, um, hated the pick at the beginning, but I don't hate it anymore.

Jacob Shapiro:

Hmm.

Marko Papic:

I'm surprised you made the pick, you know?

Marko Papic:

Oh, I felt,

Jacob Shapiro:

I felt dirty.

Jacob Shapiro:

I felt dirty making the pick, but this is my allegiance to objectivity here.

Marko Papic:

No, that's excellent.

Marko Papic:

I mean, and, and I think, you know, at first, you know, I don't like leaders that

Marko Papic:

are just effective at staying in power.

Marko Papic:

You know, like that's not what this list is about.

Marko Papic:

You know, this list is about are you actually good at getting

Marko Papic:

your country to the NBA finals?

Marko Papic:

Basically, this is about winning.

Marko Papic:

This is about making the country better, making it great again.

Marko Papic:

And I gotta say, I mean, Victor Orban has defended, I think

Marko Papic:

Hungarian interest very well.

Marko Papic:

Uh, and for the most part he has used his, um, annoying qualities

Marko Papic:

in a really positive way in which he has extracted concessions from

Marko Papic:

Europe just to kind of play along.

Marko Papic:

And I think that's been, um, quite admirable from an

Marko Papic:

effectiveness policy point of view.

Marko Papic:

Now, whether he has brought, you know, soft authoritarianism back to Europe,

Marko Papic:

you know, the kind of things that the foreign affairs are, God forbid the

Marko Papic:

Economist would write about, I don't really give a shit about that stuff.

Marko Papic:

That's not what I'm looking at.

Marko Papic:

Maybe in the long term that will be a problem for Hungary.

Marko Papic:

I'm not sure, but I do think that was a good pick.

Marko Papic:

Jacob.

Marko Papic:

So he is 33 third.

Marko Papic:

I didn't have him on the list, so he slipped.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think he's good.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think he has a ceiling.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like if your country is facing like other countries that are going after

Jacob Shapiro:

it, or if you're, if you're in a real problem neighborhood or something like

Jacob Shapiro:

that, like you'll want Victor Orban.

Jacob Shapiro:

If you're swimming with the sharks, you want a shark of your own.

Jacob Shapiro:

If you start the upper levels of my list, where you're starting to get into open

Jacob Shapiro:

democracies where elections are completely fair and open and things like that,

Jacob Shapiro:

Orban is not gonna work in that system.

Jacob Shapiro:

His method of rule is not gonna work.

Jacob Shapiro:

And that's why you probably trade some of those people in front of him.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like even if they're not as adept as politicians, like you probably

Jacob Shapiro:

still wouldn't trade for them.

Jacob Shapiro:

But if you're any kind of country that has like problems or you're thinking

Jacob Shapiro:

about defending your interest in a rough neighborhood, like that's why

Jacob Shapiro:

he earns the, this spot on the list.

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause if you're in that sort of situation, you're gonna want this

Jacob Shapiro:

guy, like this guy is ruthless about pursuing national interests and tying

Jacob Shapiro:

his own future to the national interest.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think that's, I don't think that's arguable

Marko Papic:

correct.

Marko Papic:

I think he would've done a better job, for example, than

Marko Papic:

me, him in Netanyahu in Israel.

Marko Papic:

So I would've traded him for, uh, Benjamin Nhu.

Marko Papic:

The other thing I would say about Orban is that I think

Marko Papic:

you might be too harsh on him.

Marko Papic:

I mean, he, he did also, uh, he was electorally successful even when he was

Marko Papic:

far more committed to liberal democracy, you know, so he's, he's got range.

Marko Papic:

Uh, what I would say about Victor Orban is if we were comparing him

Marko Papic:

to a, like a basketball player, he's someone who has transformed

Marko Papic:

himself and the way that he plays.

Marko Papic:

He was a down low banker in the post, and then he learned how to,

Marko Papic:

you know, he's like Brooke Lopez.

Marko Papic:

That's a good to,

Jacob Shapiro:

yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

Al Horford.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

I got you.

Marko Papic:

There you go.

Marko Papic:

Yes.

Marko Papic:

Just, you know, kind of annoying.

Marko Papic:

Uh.

Marko Papic:

Francis, uh, Vatican, Pope Francis 32nd.

Marko Papic:

I gotta say, this was kind of a joke pic.

Marko Papic:

He ends up being pretty high, but I think he's gonna be a really good pope.

Marko Papic:

So let's move on.

Marko Papic:

Alright, uh, 31st.

Marko Papic:

Benjamin Netanyahu.

Marko Papic:

Your pick.

Marko Papic:

Uh, here, uh, I do disagree.

Marko Papic:

Um, unlike Orban, I don't think he is, uh, like 10 years from now after Orban

Marko Papic:

is gone, like 10 years after Orban.

Marko Papic:

I think the Hungary is better off than Orban, particularly because I think

Marko Papic:

institutions of Hungary will swing back towards liberal democracy and

Marko Papic:

only Westerners sitting in London and writing about, you know, other countries,

Marko Papic:

uh, disagree with that, uh, because they look down on Eastern Europe.

Marko Papic:

So I don't actually have a problem with Orban and what he's doing.

Marko Papic:

Like it's gonna be fine.

Marko Papic:

Settle down, hung is not gonna go fascist.

Marko Papic:

Benjamin Netanyahu, eh, I don't know.

Marko Papic:

I think he's enabled, I think he's enabled the worst parts of, uh,

Marko Papic:

Israeli politics to kind of bubble up to the surface to be normalized and

Marko Papic:

purely for petty personal interests.

Marko Papic:

I really, really struggled to see much, uh, long-term strategy here.

Marko Papic:

But you did have a very, very high, and I think that's, you know,

Marko Papic:

like if you look at him purely from a geopolitical perspective,

Marko Papic:

I mean, he has kind of crushed it.

Marko Papic:

And I agree with that.

Marko Papic:

Iran is on the back foot, Hezbollah hesitating to check their text messages.

Marko Papic:

Uh, and, uh, you know, Hamas is obviously, um, yeah, basically destroyed.

Marko Papic:

So, uh, I do understand it from a, from an effectiveness perspective

Marko Papic:

and a military perspective.

Marko Papic:

He has done really well.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

I, nothing really to add there for me.

Jacob Shapiro:

Just that like, he probably wouldn't have made it this high

Jacob Shapiro:

on my list even 12 months ago.

Jacob Shapiro:

But the quick succession of decimating Hezbollah and then decimating Iran

Jacob Shapiro:

like this, like it's extremely, like, it's, it's not something I thought.

Jacob Shapiro:

So maybe I'm over-indexing because I didn't think that he was capable

Jacob Shapiro:

of it or Israel was capable of it.

Jacob Shapiro:

But I also think there's no arguing that like he understood this threat

Jacob Shapiro:

and he went after it to, to the point of understanding the United States,

Jacob Shapiro:

understanding that all he needed to do was back Trump into a corner and

Jacob Shapiro:

give him FOMO on foreign policy.

Jacob Shapiro:

And he would help in the war rather than slap Israel in the wrist.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like he, he read the room correctly.

Jacob Shapiro:

He's got a hot hand right now.

Marko Papic:

You know what I would say about Benjamin Thu, my comp for him.

Marko Papic:

I know I said Gilbert Arenas.

Marko Papic:

That's, that's not fair.

Marko Papic:

Gilbert Arenas, other than a few years in Washington, never really

Marko Papic:

took his team deep in the playoffs.

Marko Papic:

I would say Benjamin Thu is Paul George three his playoff b hmm.

Marko Papic:

You know, like remember when the Indiana pastries with Paul George like took

Marko Papic:

LeBron to like I do a couple like, yeah.

Marko Papic:

So, but, but he's terrible and he's terrible for your team and he

Marko Papic:

whines and he's selfish and he's also, maybe he and Lula will do a

Marko Papic:

podcast to together to complete the Paul Pearson Paul George analogy.

Marko Papic:

Alright, we go from the Vatican to Israel to Al-Qaeda, Ahed Al. I

Marko Papic:

mean obviously that's how we go.

Marko Papic:

30th on the list.

Marko Papic:

He was very, very high on mine.

Marko Papic:

I know you love this pick.

Marko Papic:

I know you're jealous of it.

Marko Papic:

That's fine.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

We can share it together.

Marko Papic:

The former Al-Qaeda leader of Syria, uh, this is, this is your 19-year-old

Marko Papic:

seven foot six project from France.

Marko Papic:

This is the guy that you don't know if he's gonna stay

Marko Papic:

healthy or in the real world.

Marko Papic:

The equivalent of that would be alive.

Marko Papic:

So you don't know any of those things.

Marko Papic:

You are confused, but just the range is amazing.

Marko Papic:

Great family with a lot of political, uh, roots in Syria.

Marko Papic:

This is not some dude that came out of a cave, picked up an AK

Marko Papic:

47 and decided to be a terrorist.

Marko Papic:

This is a university educated, frustrated dude, hated Assad.

Marko Papic:

The only way to fight Assad was to join Al-Qaeda.

Marko Papic:

And he did.

Marko Papic:

God bless him.

Marko Papic:

And then he was like, Hmm, Windsor changing.

Marko Papic:

Maybe I should put on a tie and trim my beard.

Marko Papic:

And then here he is on CNN speaking to Christiana Amur, which was

Marko Papic:

one of the most fascinating 180 degree turns from a PR perspective.

Marko Papic:

I think, uh, this is one of the highest rated leaders here.

Marko Papic:

This guy's got something, he's got that something special.

Marko Papic:

Um, I'm really fascinated, uh, was quiet.

Marko Papic:

The only Arab leader that was quiet during the Israel Iran conflict, the

Marko Papic:

only one that did not disparage Israel for attacking Iran, has been pretty

Marko Papic:

unequivocally anti-Iran this entire time.

Marko Papic:

He's got Trump basically.

Marko Papic:

Uh, advocating for, uh, Syria to be brought back into the

Marko Papic:

international community is gonna be very, very tough for him.

Marko Papic:

He's basically a draft project, young player, lots of potential

Marko Papic:

rookie contract, honeymoon period.

Marko Papic:

But he did get drafted by an absolutely terrible team.

Marko Papic:

What is a comp for Syria in the NBA?

Marko Papic:

Probably the Washington Wizards.

Marko Papic:

So, you know, we'll see if he survives, but he's 30th and

Marko Papic:

I think that's appropriate.

Marko Papic:

Um, I think that's so far what we've seen pretty extraordinary.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah, I, I don't have anything to add 'cause I was jealous

Jacob Shapiro:

of the pick, but I will say to our Nordic listeners who were sending in

Jacob Shapiro:

the hate mail, you know, I had met to Frederickson up at 12, so as a result

Jacob Shapiro:

of smooshing together, MAA Marco's List, Metta comes in at 39th on this

Jacob Shapiro:

list, and Ahmed Al Shara is at 30.

Jacob Shapiro:

Would you trade Metta Frankon for Ahmed Al Shara?

Jacob Shapiro:

Just throwing that out there to the Danish listeners.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, just, just, just cook with that question for a little

Jacob Shapiro:

bit and then come back to me.

Jacob Shapiro:

If, if you would still make the trade and, and if you would, then, then fine,

Jacob Shapiro:

then I respect the take, but like, just, just slow down a little bit.

Jacob Shapiro:

Unless you want, unless you want the Alqaeda guy in charge, you know,

Marko Papic:

I mean, you know, like he's doing well.

Marko Papic:

I'm pretty sure he's gonna handle the intricacy of pension reform if he can

Marko Papic:

handle the intricacy of ethnic conflict.

Marko Papic:

We'll see.

Marko Papic:

Uh, alright, next pick was kind of a deep, uh, deep reach by me.

Marko Papic:

I, I reached into my bag.

Marko Papic:

Eddie Rama from Albania, he has done really great job.

Marko Papic:

You then picked, uh, you went deep in your bag too.

Marko Papic:

This guy was very high on your list, wasn't on mine.

Marko Papic:

That's why he got penalized.

Marko Papic:

But I am jealous of this.

Marko Papic:

Shav got me from Uzbekistan who has transformed the country.

Jacob Shapiro:

I was jealous of the Albania pick.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I, I think these are both like really nice, like deep in the bag examples.

Jacob Shapiro:

It'd be interesting to see if these guys could get called up

Jacob Shapiro:

to, uh, to the, to the pros.

Jacob Shapiro:

But they're doing very well in their, in their spheres.

Marko Papic:

Uh, you then went with Shakiro Yeshiva from Japan.

Marko Papic:

Um, I thought that was a great pick.

Marko Papic:

I didn't have him, but I think he's doing really, really well despite, um,

Marko Papic:

relatively tap popularity in Japan.

Marko Papic:

The Japanese just does, don't like their leaders ever.

Marko Papic:

So, uh, God bless him.

Marko Papic:

He's doing great in the negotiations with, uh, Trump is, uh, you know,

Marko Papic:

he's the one, the one leader that has decided to hold out for a better deal.

Marko Papic:

Kayak cull, uh, another person that was very high on your list,

Marko Papic:

uh, is from Estonia, got, uh, penalized because I did not pick her.

Marko Papic:

I think that was a good pick.

Marko Papic:

Karen Keller Suiter from Switzerland.

Marko Papic:

I thought this was, uh, you know, it's, it's kind of like picking, I don't

Marko Papic:

know, like Tony Parker outta the Spurs.

Marko Papic:

Is Tony Parker really good, or were the Spurs really a great team?

Jacob Shapiro:

Oh, it's, it's not even that.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's, it's more like Shane Batier.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's like a really, really safe pick.

Marko Papic:

It's a, it's a safe pick, but also it's like the

Marko Papic:

system, you know, this is a great example of, of just the country.

Marko Papic:

So, well, I think I could run Switzerland.

Marko Papic:

Um, and then we get into, so now we're getting into like the, the picks

Marko Papic:

where I, I, I mean, we're not there yet, but like Abdullah's, second of

Marko Papic:

Jordan, very difficult situation.

Marko Papic:

Doing great.

Marko Papic:

Pedro Sanchez from Swain got a lot of hate mail.

Marko Papic:

Somebody compared him to Merkel because of energy policy.

Marko Papic:

Please look at the data first before you say that.

Marko Papic:

Spain is one of the few places in the world where it does make sense

Marko Papic:

to go hard into alternative energy.

Marko Papic:

Uh, so disagree with you completely.

Marko Papic:

There's a boom in data centers in Spain because of their alternative energy

Marko Papic:

policies, because their electricity prices go to zero for God's sakes.

Marko Papic:

Uh, Oman's, he binta Saltan, he binta of Oman.

Marko Papic:

22nd.

Marko Papic:

Xi Jinping 21st.

Marko Papic:

We'll get back to that.

Marko Papic:

Let's hold that thought.

Marko Papic:

Moham Mohamed's, sixth of Morocco.

Marko Papic:

So, uh, also for the extraordinary transformation of Morocco is 20th, top 20.

Marko Papic:

Kasim Jomar to Kazakhstan.

Marko Papic:

I went deep into my bag.

Marko Papic:

He was top five pick for me.

Marko Papic:

He did not make your list.

Marko Papic:

Because he was so highly ranked.

Marko Papic:

He sneaked into 19 and now Kuski, he was also top five for me.

Marko Papic:

Greek prime Minister, who has led to extraordinary reforms.

Marko Papic:

Olo Deir, Zelensky 17.

Marko Papic:

Hold that thought will come back to him.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

Yep.

Marko Papic:

Uh, and now we get into, uh, some leaders that we both had on the

Marko Papic:

list, which is why they're so high.

Marko Papic:

These leaders are so high because we, there's consensus now top 15,

Marko Papic:

basically Amal Amman, Macron at 16.

Marko Papic:

Uh, neither one of us picked him actually this high.

Marko Papic:

But where we aggregated our list, he went up because many of our higher picks,

Marko Papic:

better picks, in our opinion, in, in one of our opinions, just got penalized.

Marko Papic:

'cause they were only on one list.

Marko Papic:

So by default, Macron won kind of how he won his second term.

Marko Papic:

Exactly.

Marko Papic:

You know, like both of us felt uncomfortable not

Marko Papic:

putting Macron on the list.

Marko Papic:

He did transform French politics for the first time since Charlotte

Marko Papic:

de Gold in a significant way.

Marko Papic:

So we're sitting there like, yeah, okay, fine.

Marko Papic:

You know, he's always in the mix, but most French people are probably

Marko Papic:

lighting themselves in fire for us.

Marko Papic:

Having him, well, you know what guys?

Marko Papic:

You should do yourself with more gasoline.

Marko Papic:

'cause he kind of squirted his way up higher onto our list.

Marko Papic:

Ami Rwanda also.

Marko Papic:

We both picked him 15th on the list.

Marko Papic:

I 14th.

Marko Papic:

Hey, listen, bald, don't lie, right?

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

Now Goba not in Armenia anymore, so he is high on this list.

Marko Papic:

Although obviously we should, we should caveat this.

Marko Papic:

How difficult is it to win a war?

Marko Papic:

Uh, a war when you are washed in commodity proceeds Friedrich me of Germany.

Marko Papic:

Number 13.

Marko Papic:

I mean, we're treating Merz here as if, I don't know.

Marko Papic:

He's Victor Van Bama or at least, uh, what's, what's the,

Marko Papic:

the kid's name outta Duke.

Marko Papic:

My brain just stopped.

Jacob Shapiro:

Cooper Flag

Marko Papic:

Flag.

Marko Papic:

Cooper Flag.

Marko Papic:

I mean, Friedrich Mertz Cooper flag on this list just got

Marko Papic:

picked number one in the NBA.

Marko Papic:

We're basically giving Mertz a lot of credit.

Marko Papic:

And to be, to be clear, he is, uh, summer workout.

Marko Papic:

YouTube videos are extraordinary.

Marko Papic:

So I, he, I do think he deserves it.

Marko Papic:

Um, Erdogan another guy who's courted his way up 'cause he was on both of our list.

Marko Papic:

He managed to get to 12.

Marko Papic:

I don't think either one of us really wanted him 12, but here he is.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

Lo wonk, Lawrence Wonk, I agree with, I had him much lower than

Marko Papic:

you did, but I had him on the list contemplating putting him in top 10.

Marko Papic:

He's number 11.

Marko Papic:

I agree with that.

Marko Papic:

He's young.

Marko Papic:

He's, he just started as the prime Minister of Singapore a year

Marko Papic:

ago, and so far what I've seen is, uh, pretty impressive stuff.

Marko Papic:

cyril OSA number 10, um, complicated alliance with the, uh, da.

Marko Papic:

He's, uh, he's the first leader of South Africa and has basically had to, uh, you

Marko Papic:

know, uh, reach out to the opposition to create a pretty significant coalition.

Marko Papic:

And of course, his, uh, handling of Donald Trump, I think was very good.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

Now the most controversial, uh, part of this number nine,

Marko Papic:

massive hate mail from Australia.

Marko Papic:

I mean, Australians are quitting, they're unsubscribing from geopolitical

Marko Papic:

cousins in droves because they all hate the Anthony Albanese pig, you know?

Marko Papic:

And, uh, I I, I have to admit, I hesitated putting him as high as I did.

Marko Papic:

He was, where was he on my list?

Marko Papic:

He was really high on my list, I think.

Marko Papic:

Oh, no, he was 20, 20 20th on my list.

Jacob Shapiro:

No, he was 10th on my list of br Bring the hate over here, Ozzie.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm ready for it.

Jacob Shapiro:

So

Marko Papic:

I, he was 20 of mine, 10 on yours.

Marko Papic:

He ends up nine on the combined list.

Marko Papic:

Uh, and I think that that's too harsh.

Marko Papic:

You know, like all the, all the hate mail.

Marko Papic:

Fine.

Marko Papic:

Maybe he's 10 spots too high.

Marko Papic:

Who cares?

Marko Papic:

I think he's, uh, done a pretty admirable job of geopolitical balancing.

Marko Papic:

I think most Aussies that hate de pick don't understand why

Marko Papic:

he's saw Aloof of America.

Marko Papic:

And my answer is because he understands the world is not bipolar.

Marko Papic:

For the first Australian leader who gets the picking sides.

Marko Papic:

So clearly is probably a mistake.

Marko Papic:

So I give him credit for that.

Marko Papic:

What's your defense of albanese?

Jacob Shapiro:

Well, it's sort of, first of all, it's sort of like kiir starer,

Jacob Shapiro:

like think about who else is on this list.

Jacob Shapiro:

So if you're in Australia, are you gonna trade, uh, albanese for

Jacob Shapiro:

somebody who's lower on those list?

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, would you rather have Benjamin Netanyahu running your

Jacob Shapiro:

country or, you know, uh, ab fatal Assisi or somebody like that?

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, like so slow.

Jacob Shapiro:

Your role a little bit there.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think you're right about, um, look, Australia's defense relationship with

Jacob Shapiro:

the United States incredibly critical for Australian geopolitics, but your biggest

Jacob Shapiro:

trading relationship is with China.

Jacob Shapiro:

You can't just give the middle finger to China in a world that is

Jacob Shapiro:

moving multipolar where the United States is less reliable in general.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I guess also just with Albany, like what's the scandal?

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, what has he effed up?

Jacob Shapiro:

I haven't heard, almost, almost nothing from Australian politics has risen to

Jacob Shapiro:

the level of I need to work on this right now for clients in ever since he is been

Jacob Shapiro:

elected, because he's just handling shit.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, is it brilliant?

Jacob Shapiro:

Is he the, is he the best Australian leader ever?

Jacob Shapiro:

No, none of this necessarily.

Jacob Shapiro:

But when you start comparing him to some of the other folks on this list, and

Jacob Shapiro:

by the way, doing this exercise makes you realize just how few leaders there

Jacob Shapiro:

are out there that you would even want to be in charge of your own country.

Jacob Shapiro:

But, you know, we're, we're talking about would you rather have Xi

Jacob Shapiro:

Jinping as the leader of Australia?

Jacob Shapiro:

Would you rather have, um, you know, Pedro Sanchez or somebody like that?

Jacob Shapiro:

Like I, I think that if you're judging him relatively, and you're looking

Jacob Shapiro:

at his record, he's been competent.

Jacob Shapiro:

Even if he's been uninspiring, he's correctly navigating geopolitical,

Jacob Shapiro:

very tough geopolitical Cs.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like I, yeah, it's, it's not a full throat that he's the, the best thing ever.

Jacob Shapiro:

But if you're thinking, if you're being faithful to the exercise, I have a hard

Jacob Shapiro:

time seeing why he should be penalized.

Jacob Shapiro:

But I'm open to the Australians telling me, no, Jacob, you don't know all these

Jacob Shapiro:

other terrible things that he's done.

Jacob Shapiro:

Please tell me the terrible, awful things that he's done to

Jacob Shapiro:

collapse the Australian economy.

Jacob Shapiro:

Because here, sitting here in New Orleans, I don't see, it seems

Jacob Shapiro:

to me Australia's doing okay.

Marko Papic:

Yeah, no, I, I think you, you did a great job there.

Marko Papic:

And I, I do think it was funny how much hate mail we got from

Marko Papic:

Westerners hating their own leaders.

Marko Papic:

Uh, by the way, just to be clear, we love the hate mail.

Marko Papic:

Please keep it coming.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yes, please.

Marko Papic:

Absolutely No problem.

Marko Papic:

But we will expose you and make fun of you.

Marko Papic:

Like that is something that you have to take on that risk

Marko Papic:

if you send us hate mail.

Marko Papic:

So, uh, lots of, lots of criticism of these leaders and, and

Marko Papic:

again, nobody in Turkey sent us.

Marko Papic:

Uh, it's funny because, you know, a lot of these picks are very

Marko Papic:

controversial in the countries.

Marko Papic:

They're picked, but only the westerners unequivocally hate their leaders.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

Now we're getting into idea or, or, or, or

Jacob Shapiro:

feel safe about, uh, or feel safe, uh, izing their leaders Fair.

Marko Papic:

Alright.

Marko Papic:

That's, that is fair.

Marko Papic:

Okay.

Marko Papic:

So let's, uh, let's get into, uh, number nine.

Marko Papic:

Sorry, number eight.

Marko Papic:

Number eight on our list is Javier Mil.

Marko Papic:

Uh, high on both of our lists.

Marko Papic:

Um, you know, I think that's, but,

Jacob Shapiro:

but, but, but also a great example of what I was just talking about.

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause he was 17 on my list and Albanese was number 10.

Jacob Shapiro:

So I say again to the Australians, would you rather have the chainsaw wielding

Jacob Shapiro:

maniac as the leader of your country?

Jacob Shapiro:

Because in my list, no, you wouldn't.

Jacob Shapiro:

There's, like, if you're a certain level of like, messed up country,

Jacob Shapiro:

yeah, you might want the chainsaw to come out and try and do some reform,

Jacob Shapiro:

but like, that's not exactly what I would wanna trade for in general.

Jacob Shapiro:

But because Melay was on both of our lists, and because he is do, he's really

Jacob Shapiro:

doing such an ambitious thing and trying to turn around Argentina, which for

Jacob Shapiro:

over a century has been a basket case.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like he gets some dier, but that just to push back against

Jacob Shapiro:

the Australians one more time.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

I think, you know what, I, I think you're right and I think a lot of, uh,

Marko Papic:

so, so I, I'll take two sides of this.

Marko Papic:

First of all, I, I think a lot of our listeners in the West, they have to

Marko Papic:

understand that this is kind of like.

Marko Papic:

What moment in your life are you in?

Marko Papic:

Like when you're 23 years old?

Marko Papic:

And I'm gonna try to do this in a gender neutral way.

Marko Papic:

Okay, good for you.

Marko Papic:

When you're, yeah, when you're, when you're 23 years old, when you're 23

Marko Papic:

years old, you kind of want someone who's riding a bike and got tattoos.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

When you're like 50 me, you might want someone who's in their mid thirties

Marko Papic:

with a stable job and occasionally likes to ride motorcycles, right?

Marko Papic:

And so I think a lot of our listeners in the West, they're pretending they're 23,

Marko Papic:

they want a zelensky, they wanted to cave hell, maybe they want to let their hair

Marko Papic:

down and even go out with Xi Jinping.

Marko Papic:

But the truth is, you're like 57 year olds old man.

Marko Papic:

You know?

Marko Papic:

You don't need someone who's 23 on a motorbike with a tattoo.

Marko Papic:

You know?

Marko Papic:

Like, you don't need that.

Marko Papic:

That's not what you want.

Marko Papic:

And so I think a lot of our listeners look at someone like Alban or Starmer,

Marko Papic:

and they're like boring, you know?

Marko Papic:

Like, we don't want these guys, they're there.

Marko Papic:

There's nothing interesting about them.

Marko Papic:

And uh, and I think that's a mistake.

Marko Papic:

Now that said, we're gonna get into some people right now who I think are as high

Marko Papic:

as they are because they have vision.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

They have, they have vision.

Marko Papic:

And the problem is, if some of these leaders don't have vision, well this

Marko Papic:

next mid thirties, non tattooed, non motorbike riding, uh, person.

Marko Papic:

Is is I think does have vision.

Marko Papic:

And that's Mark Carney.

Marko Papic:

He's number seven.

Marko Papic:

He was high on both of our lists.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

Uh, I think, you know, I think that's appropriate.

Marko Papic:

Top 10 leader, uh, incredible range.

Marko Papic:

Former central banker who can both talk to you about the Laffer Curve and all

Marko Papic:

sorts of other advanced economo metric concepts, while also shaking your

Marko Papic:

hand and talking about junior hockey.

Marko Papic:

'cause he's got it all.

Marko Papic:

He's got range.

Marko Papic:

He was the Central Bank governor of both Canada and the United Kingdom Bank of

Marko Papic:

England that is, uh, and Bank of Canada.

Marko Papic:

He also comes from a small town in Canada and knows how to, uh, please both the

Marko Papic:

crowds wearing the, uh, the white hats.

Marko Papic:

Uh, and also, uh, how to please the crowds, uh, at an investment fund.

Marko Papic:

So I think it's very interesting.

Marko Papic:

And again, he is somewhat, that's higher list because there's a lot of potential.

Marko Papic:

He's not particularly young, but he's early in his term.

Marko Papic:

And there's, uh, more to go.

Marko Papic:

Next one is Modi.

Marko Papic:

I do think that it's a little bit unfair to Lula, who's 34, Modi six.

Marko Papic:

I do think Modi is better at this point in his career, but I do think you can

Marko Papic:

bring up the fact that he's at the end of his career, you are paying a lot.

Marko Papic:

Uh, for Modi, he's got another three years at $50 million a year.

Marko Papic:

That's kind of player He is.

Marko Papic:

So, mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

Uh, you know, that's kind of a problem.

Marko Papic:

Alright.

Marko Papic:

Top five.

Marko Papic:

Universally loved number one on Jacob Shapiro's list.

Marko Papic:

And every single male listener between the ages of 25 and

Marko Papic:

40 absolutely loves this guy.

Marko Papic:

It is naive BU from El Salvador coming in at number five, the crypto king, the

Marko Papic:

Bitcoin baller, the guy who has cleaned up el, by the way, I'm doing this off

Marko Papic:

the top of my head, so you're welcome.

Marko Papic:

He has cleaned up El Salvador.

Marko Papic:

Uh, everybody swears by it.

Marko Papic:

Uh, I do think he has range.

Marko Papic:

I think that you would trade for him even if you were in Canada.

Marko Papic:

I actually think that he would be able to run even an OECD economy because he's

Marko Papic:

got pr, he's got marketing, he's savvy.

Marko Papic:

He knows how to talk.

Marko Papic:

He's got charisma, he's got big ideas, big ideas, and that's useful in any country.

Marko Papic:

I love this guy.

Marko Papic:

I love this big.

Marko Papic:

He was number one on your list.

Marko Papic:

He was number 13 on my list, but I flirted with putting him in the top five.

Marko Papic:

Um, and I think, uh, I put him too low, quite frankly.

Marko Papic:

I think he should be top three.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

Great pick.

Marko Papic:

Alright, next one.

Marko Papic:

Mohamed Bin Zaid, leader of, uh, the Emirates.

Marko Papic:

Uh, absolutely crushing it.

Marko Papic:

The Emirates are not just Dubai, they're not just about fake islands.

Marko Papic:

I. Other fake things, by the way, just we're not gonna mention what,

Marko Papic:

they're not just about Dubai anymore.

Marko Papic:

They're a financial capital.

Marko Papic:

They're uh, actually a manufacturing hub.

Marko Papic:

If you're flying in an airliner, you're flying in an airplane whose parts were

Marko Papic:

partly manufactured in the Emirates.

Marko Papic:

Uh, the other Emirates are coming up.

Marko Papic:

It's not just Abu Dhabi and Dubai.

Marko Papic:

Sharjah is blowing up as well.

Marko Papic:

Abu Dhabi has become a financial center.

Marko Papic:

They're doing some incredible things.

Marko Papic:

Also, did I mention ai?

Marko Papic:

They're probably gonna be the earliest adopters of everything.

Marko Papic:

So, great job of the Emirates.

Marko Papic:

Uh, also geopolitics done well on that front as well.

Marko Papic:

Number three, neighboring Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman.

Marko Papic:

Uh, he's hired this list, not just because of effectiveness, not just

Marko Papic:

because of dramatic socioeconomic change that has gone on in Saudi Arabia, that

Marko Papic:

I would only compare it to the major restoration in mid 19th century Japan.

Marko Papic:

Not just that, but also because of vision.

Marko Papic:

Yes, some of this vision is too much.

Marko Papic:

Yes, some of these projects are not gonna happen, but if 30% of this

Marko Papic:

vision is actually articulated, that will be extraordinary.

Marko Papic:

More than that, I also think Bin Salama should be number three, because

Marko Papic:

the reforms that are happening in Saudi Arabia and the handling of

Marko Papic:

geopolitics, particularly navigating the very tricky Israel Iran situation

Marko Papic:

is not just good for Saudi Arabia.

Marko Papic:

It's good for the region.

Marko Papic:

Saudi Arabia has decided to become a responsible regional power to

Marko Papic:

reduce its reliance on various militants and various extremists.

Marko Papic:

And that is, has just made the world a better place, quite frankly.

Marko Papic:

So that's number three.

Marko Papic:

Obviously everyone's gonna bring up Khashoggi and what happened, um, with

Marko Papic:

the death of that journalist, I would just remind you that the United States

Marko Papic:

of America, uh, bombed Al Jazeera's, uh, headquarters in Iraq during the war.

Marko Papic:

So like, don't talk to us about killing journalists, although I

Marko Papic:

obviously think that's terrible, but that's not what this list is about.

Marko Papic:

And now, top two, oh, sorry.

Jacob Shapiro:

Well, I, we, I can't believe I'm, I'm really, I, I'm,

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm really impressed with the moral equivalency between the United

Jacob Shapiro:

States bombing Al Jazeera and, uh, Jamal Khashoggi being literally

Jacob Shapiro:

dismembered in a consulate, uh, at MB s's uh, MB S'S request.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think that was young mbs.

Jacob Shapiro:

So hopefully he is a little bit older and he understands that, uh,

Jacob Shapiro:

taking off the arms and limbs of the people who disagree with you

Jacob Shapiro:

is not a good way to stay in power.

Jacob Shapiro:

Better to lock them in the Ritz-Carlton and make sure that they give you

Jacob Shapiro:

billions of dollars in order to get out.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, but yeah, I, I can't let that one go without some comment.

Jacob Shapiro:

Cousin.

Marko Papic:

I'm sorry.

Marko Papic:

I'm sorry.

Marko Papic:

I'm sorry, Jacob.

Marko Papic:

But, uh, you know, like, you, you should hold countries with

Marko Papic:

institutional norms and rules to higher standards, my friend, you know?

Marko Papic:

So that's, uh, that's, that's where I sit on that one.

Marko Papic:

So, yes.

Marko Papic:

Okay.

Jacob Shapiro:

Mr. Ma, you disagree with that?

Marko Papic:

And he was number three on my list, by the way.

Marko Papic:

But do you hear me well?

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah, I got you.

Jacob Shapiro:

You, you slowed down for a second, but you're good now 'cause

Marko Papic:

it's kind of choppy.

Jacob Shapiro:

Hmm.

Jacob Shapiro:

You there?

Jacob Shapiro:

It got choppy for a second, but yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm good.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm here now.

Jacob Shapiro:

Can you hear me

Marko Papic:

okay?

Marko Papic:

Yeah, I, I hear you now.

Marko Papic:

Yes.

Jacob Shapiro:

Okay, cool.

Marko Papic:

Okay,

Jacob Shapiro:

I got you.

Marko Papic:

Alright.

Marko Papic:

Top two.

Marko Papic:

Oh man.

Marko Papic:

It's, it's choppy again.

Marko Papic:

Okay.

Marko Papic:

Hopefully it's good now.

Marko Papic:

Okay.

Marko Papic:

Top two.

Marko Papic:

We got Georgia Maloney from Italy at number two, and Claudia

Marko Papic:

Shine Baum at number one.

Marko Papic:

So number one and two, both women, both relatively new leaders.

Marko Papic:

Um, Georgia Maloney, I think, uh, had a tougher time because

Marko Papic:

she had to actually wrangle her own party and win from scratch.

Marko Papic:

Fratelli Talia were not in power before Claudia Shaba was kind of

Marko Papic:

handed the presidency by amlo.

Marko Papic:

But she has done an admirable job in negotiations with, of course, the us.

Marko Papic:

Um, you haven't heard anything about Mexico over the last four months,

Marko Papic:

and that is why she's number one.

Marko Papic:

She's number one because she's somehow managed to avoid President Trump.

Marko Papic:

Uh, very tough to be a leader of Mexico so far from God and so close

Marko Papic:

to the United States of America.

Marko Papic:

And, uh, obviously, uh, I think that, uh, her handling of that situation

Marko Papic:

has rocketed her to number one.

Marko Papic:

We'll see though how she, uh, you know.

Marko Papic:

How they both do, but for the most part, nobody really complained

Marko Papic:

about that one, two punch.

Marko Papic:

Um, and, uh, I think that we did really well.

Marko Papic:

I'm on at least the top fight.

Marko Papic:

I'm surprised,

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm surprised that we didn't get more Mexican pushback

Jacob Shapiro:

from Shane Baum, but that's sort of been true of her from the beginning.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, I've done a lot of work on Mexico this year, and every single person

Jacob Shapiro:

I've met doesn't like Shane Baum swears they didn't vote for Shane Baum says

Jacob Shapiro:

she's an awful communist populist who's gonna take their money and et cetera.

Jacob Shapiro:

And yet you look at the approval rating, she's 80 plus percent.

Jacob Shapiro:

Marina got a super majority in both houses.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, and she seems to be going from strength to strength.

Jacob Shapiro:

And even the ones, like even some people who would tell you like,

Jacob Shapiro:

yeah, I didn't vote for this person.

Jacob Shapiro:

I hate this person, blah, blah, blah.

Jacob Shapiro:

And the next breath they'll say, yeah, but she's doing pretty good with the

Jacob Shapiro:

United States, or She hasn't been as bad as I expected, so I I have yet to

Jacob Shapiro:

meet a full throated Mirena supporter.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, it, I'm almost, I almost think that they don't exist because

Jacob Shapiro:

everyone I sort of come across, uh, doesn't think that way.

Jacob Shapiro:

But even the people who are against Shane Baum, I think are sane.

Jacob Shapiro:

She's done a really good job so far.

Jacob Shapiro:

Now that said, I think there, there are two things though, because if

Jacob Shapiro:

I was a Mexican and I was listening to this list and I was anti Shane

Jacob Shapiro:

Baum, there were, there were two things I would really push back on.

Jacob Shapiro:

Number one is the cartels and the security situation.

Jacob Shapiro:

And this didn't go very well for AMLO either.

Jacob Shapiro:

And she's got like a significant problem there.

Jacob Shapiro:

And it's, it's not just her problem.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like Mexican leaders have had to deal with this and it's an almost impossible problem

Jacob Shapiro:

to deal with, but it's not like she has fixed that or made big moves in fixing

Jacob Shapiro:

that at any point sort of going forward.

Jacob Shapiro:

So I think you can favorably criticize her for that.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think also.

Jacob Shapiro:

Though, I mean, there's Shane Baum herself who is a relatively pragmatic politician.

Jacob Shapiro:

, and then there's Morena and what Morena is pushing for.

Jacob Shapiro:

And she may be the beginning of a new single party dictatorship in Mexico.

Jacob Shapiro:

And if you are a wealthy Mexican and thinking about your relationship

Jacob Shapiro:

with the Mexican state, you should be pretty concerned, be pretty concerned

Jacob Shapiro:

about the centralization of power.

Jacob Shapiro:

And you can see Claudia Shane Baum as, as the totem of that centralization,

Jacob Shapiro:

you should view her as an enemy.

Jacob Shapiro:

So I, I think it's actually ironic.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think Shane Baum will probably be good in terms of moderating some of Marina's

Jacob Shapiro:

worst instincts and good for a large majority of the Mexican population.

Jacob Shapiro:

But if you're that upper crust of Mexican society, like you should be a

Jacob Shapiro:

little bit afraid of the power that's being concentrated and in some of

Jacob Shapiro:

the things, um, that she has said.

Jacob Shapiro:

So we, we didn't get the hate mail that I was expecting from Mexicans, but I

Jacob Shapiro:

know from talking to them like over the past year that like, there's plenty

Jacob Shapiro:

of it and she's not a perfect picker.

Jacob Shapiro:

Nobody on this list is gonna be perfect.

Jacob Shapiro:

So she was not number one on my list.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like she is number one because of, you know, when you smush our list

Jacob Shapiro:

together, she's the one that comes up.

Jacob Shapiro:

But even though she was top five for me, like she does have some words.

Jacob Shapiro:

I just wanted to put that out there.

Marko Papic:

Yeah, I think that's a great defense, uh, Jacob,

Marko Papic:

and, and thank you for that.

Marko Papic:

I, I, I, I love it.

Marko Papic:

And, uh, I think it's a good pick.

Marko Papic:

I think what you reveal by focusing on those points is that she might be this

Marko Papic:

high for us because we expected worse.

Marko Papic:

And so, you know, I certainly did.

Marko Papic:

I thought she would not do well with President Trump.

Marko Papic:

I thought that she would, uh, be far more normative and moralistic with him.

Marko Papic:

And when she, uh, countered his Gulf of America gimmick with a western Mexican,

Marko Papic:

United States of America, whatever he, whatever she said, that was amazing.

Marko Papic:

And I bet you the Donald Trump loved it.

Marko Papic:

I think he was in his office sipping on a diet Coke, going like, wow, wow.

Marko Papic:

Like she gets it, you know?

Marko Papic:

She gets that this is trolling and she's trolling back.

Marko Papic:

And, uh, you know, I mean, it's a silly thing to point out, but that won't be over

Marko Papic:

when she threw trolling back at Trump.

Marko Papic:

That takes confidence.

Marko Papic:

That takes, uh, taking yourself less seriously than some of

Marko Papic:

these leaders take themselves.

Marko Papic:

That's the world we're in.

Marko Papic:

And, uh, I like that.

Marko Papic:

I think she, she won me over, but at the same time, that might mean that we are

Marko Papic:

overrated her because we underrated her.

Marko Papic:

You know?

Marko Papic:

And so that's the fear Now with Maloney, I just wanna say a couple

Marko Papic:

things in defense of Maloney, because Maloney was my, uh, number one pick.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

So you had, uh, shine Baum at number, I think four.

Marko Papic:

Five.

Marko Papic:

Five.

Marko Papic:

I five.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I had Maloney at seven.

Jacob Shapiro:

So

Marko Papic:

yeah.

Marko Papic:

So you had, uh, I had Maloney as number one.

Marko Papic:

So she ends up being number one because she was number one.

Marko Papic:

My list.

Marko Papic:

Number seven, yours.

Marko Papic:

Lemme just explain why she's so high in mine for just an economic performance.

Marko Papic:

This is an extraordinary turnaround for, uh, for Italy.

Marko Papic:

Um, Italy is, uh.

Marko Papic:

Uh, debt to GDP has come down from 160, 170% of GDP to 130.

Marko Papic:

So huge decline.

Marko Papic:

Yes, it's still 130, but give her credit.

Marko Papic:

And the deficit, the deficit, uh, for Italy as percent of

Marko Papic:

GDP was in the 12% range.

Marko Papic:

Even, uh, right after the, uh, pandemic, she's gotten it back to 3%.

Marko Papic:

I mean, that's an extraordinary correction in deficit that most Americans

Marko Papic:

listening to this would've loved.

Marko Papic:

Um, so she's done a really good job.

Marko Papic:

By the way, Miata is, uh, out of Greece.

Marko Papic:

Uh, the Greek economy is actually, uh, outperforming the Euro area.

Marko Papic:

Uh, Malone is managed to get Italy to be on par with the Euro

Marko Papic:

area, which is extraordinary 'cause Italy has a growth problem.

Marko Papic:

But Mitsa in Greece, just a little defense for him, he's managed

Marko Papic:

to, uh, actually outperform.

Marko Papic:

And the debt to GDP of Greece has come down from 210% to 150%, and it now has a

Marko Papic:

5% almost, um, positive budget balance.

Marko Papic:

So that's extraordinary, uh, extraordinary performance, uh, by these two leaders.

Marko Papic:

Spain, by the way, massively outperforming the Euro area in terms of growth.

Marko Papic:

Uh, debt to GDP is down from 130 to a hundred percent.

Marko Papic:

Deficits are down as well to two point a 5%.

Marko Papic:

So all these leaders have managed to, you know, move their, the Mediterranean

Marko Papic:

leadership has gotten really better in Europe, and I think that's why

Marko Papic:

they're, they're high on her lists.

Marko Papic:

Okay.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah, I think so too.

Jacob Shapiro:

I, I just wanna say about Maloney.

Jacob Shapiro:

She's, she's a unicorn on this list, and she's a unicorn because she is

Jacob Shapiro:

this sort of social conservative leaning right wing, a little bit

Jacob Shapiro:

euroskeptic, but has, wants nothing to do with Vladimir Putin in Russia.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, there is a lot of weird Putin love in, when you think about Euroskeptic

Jacob Shapiro:

circles in the right wing in Europe.

Jacob Shapiro:

But her, think about the lap.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

Not her, but not her.

Jacob Shapiro:

No.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah, she, she's a one of one, like, I don't know anybody else who could

Jacob Shapiro:

replicate the sort of different ideological things she has put

Jacob Shapiro:

together and to dominate Italian politics the way that she has.

Jacob Shapiro:

I mean, I think, I, I forget if, if it's Italy or some other country has had like

Jacob Shapiro:

the most leadership transition since World War ii, like Italy is either up there,

Jacob Shapiro:

number one bad and she's dominating.

Marko Papic:

Yes.

Marko Papic:

She, no, listen, so

Jacob Shapiro:

she's, she's sort of like pingus if, uh, he

Jacob Shapiro:

didn't get hurt all the time.

Marko Papic:

Who bad?

Marko Papic:

She's Dirk Dubiski, I would say.

Marko Papic:

She's, she's like, oh,

Jacob Shapiro:

okay.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

The first like tall white dude from Europe who shoots threes

Marko Papic:

that America's ever seen.

Marko Papic:

That's who she is.

Marko Papic:

We're all shocked by her.

Marko Papic:

That's why she deserves to be in the top five.

Marko Papic:

I would definitely take her over Bhel.

Marko Papic:

Sorry.

Marko Papic:

No, no offense.

Marko Papic:

If you're a 25 to 40-year-old male.

Marko Papic:

I know you all love Bhel.

Marko Papic:

That's cool.

Marko Papic:

God bless you.

Marko Papic:

But I would take Maloney for president of any one, prime minister of anything.

Marko Papic:

I think she would crush it in Israel.

Marko Papic:

I think she would crush it in Ukraine.

Marko Papic:

I think she would crush it in Canada.

Marko Papic:

I think she would crush it in Syria.

Marko Papic:

I think she would crush it in the Congo.

Marko Papic:

I think Maloney is a badass.

Marko Papic:

And I'll tell you why.

Marko Papic:

She's authentic and she doesn't give a fuck.

Marko Papic:

You do you?

Marko Papic:

Okay.

Marko Papic:

Georgia, you do you Italy.

Marko Papic:

Amazing job.

Marko Papic:

Amazing job.

Marko Papic:

Slow clap.

Marko Papic:

Just nothing to say other than we've got two women on the top.

Marko Papic:

And quite frankly, I think both of them are bad asses and they will crush.

Marko Papic:

Crush in any situation.

Marko Papic:

Um, now that's, that's the summary.

Marko Papic:

That's the amalgamated, that's your list.

Marko Papic:

Let's talk about people now that are not on it.

Marko Papic:

Um, and then I wanna talk about some people that are on it.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

So I wanna talk about two people that are not on the list.

Marko Papic:

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.

Marko Papic:

I wanna ask you why you don't have them on the list.

Marko Papic:

How dare you.

Marko Papic:

And then I wanna talk about two people that are on the list that are your pick.

Marko Papic:

So you can, you can ask me to defend mine.

Marko Papic:

I just think that you picked two gentlemen that I have to kind

Marko Papic:

of defend for why they're not.

Marko Papic:

They were very high up on the list.

Marko Papic:

So Zelensky ends up being 17 and Xi Jinping ends up being 21.

Marko Papic:

They were very high on your, uh, your list.

Marko Papic:

You had, uh, lemme just see here, Zelensky in terms of your list was number two was.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

And Xi Jinping was number six.

Marko Papic:

So if you want me to defend some, we can also do that in that segment.

Marko Papic:

But neither one of us had Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.

Marko Papic:

And I think that, um, you know, it's funny because when I ask a lot of

Marko Papic:

people, who would you have in the top?

Marko Papic:

A lot of them said Putin.

Marko Papic:

Um, and there's a lot of truth in that and we have to talk about that.

Marko Papic:

Um, but neither one had it on.

Marko Papic:

So let's start with Vladimir Putin.

Marko Papic:

Why is he not on your list of top now?

Marko Papic:

44. 44 leaders?

Marko Papic:

We would take, we would take Abbi Ahmed over Vladimir Putin.

Marko Papic:

Why you and I?

Marko Papic:

Like, what did we do on, what did

Jacob Shapiro:

he do?

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I, and we need to spend some time on Xi Jinping.

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause I think I probably ranked, uh, Zelensky too far

Jacob Shapiro:

too high for my own reasons.

Jacob Shapiro:

But I, I think Xi Jinping is the one where we're gonna disagree the most.

Jacob Shapiro:

But as, as for Mr. Putin, um, look, he would've been towards the top of

Jacob Shapiro:

this list until he invaded Ukraine.

Jacob Shapiro:

And that was such a big, big unforced error.

Jacob Shapiro:

And also I think, showed that he was not in reality, um, like if you read some

Jacob Shapiro:

of the reports around him at that time, like he had sort of isolated himself.

Jacob Shapiro:

He wasn't talking to anybody.

Jacob Shapiro:

He was lecturing foreign dignitaries about like 18th century Russian

Jacob Shapiro:

history when they came to visit over the very, very long table.

Jacob Shapiro:

Do we remember that with COVID?

Jacob Shapiro:

Very long table.

Jacob Shapiro:

I mean, he didn't even tell he was so nervous to maintain the element of

Jacob Shapiro:

surprise that he didn't give his generals enough information so that they could

Jacob Shapiro:

actually plan a military operation.

Jacob Shapiro:

That should have been a layup for Russia.

Jacob Shapiro:

This is also like, this is something that he said he had fixed, like part

Jacob Shapiro:

of the reason to invade Georgia in 2008 was to test out the Russian military.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yes, they crushed Georgia, 'cause Georgia was puny, but the Russian

Jacob Shapiro:

military didn't do very well.

Jacob Shapiro:

They had huge problems in coordinating air and land forces in 2008, and Putin

Jacob Shapiro:

was the one who said, we have fixed this, like we are gonna throw so many, so much

Jacob Shapiro:

money into fixing the Russian military and professionalizing it and modernizing

Jacob Shapiro:

it, and Russia is gonna be this modern country and all these other things.

Jacob Shapiro:

And it turns out, no, it's just the same old Slavic corrupt Saudi Arabia

Jacob Shapiro:

with terrible demographics and is only a great power because they have

Jacob Shapiro:

nuclear weapons in the first place.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think history will look back at Vladimir Putin.

Jacob Shapiro:

They'll look back at that first roughly 20 years of his rule as some

Jacob Shapiro:

of the most inspired leadership in a difficult country that we've ever seen.

Jacob Shapiro:

But everything that has happened since he invaded Ukraine, he

Jacob Shapiro:

looks like Czar Nicholas ii.

Jacob Shapiro:

And, and maybe he'll drag on for another five years.

Jacob Shapiro:

Maybe he'll drag on for another 10 years.

Jacob Shapiro:

But he made an existential mistake, um, in invading Ukraine.

Jacob Shapiro:

And also in not being able to do it, and in believing that he could do it

Jacob Shapiro:

and believing his own propaganda that the Ukrainians would welcome him and

Jacob Shapiro:

that he could do the Blitz Greek attack.

Jacob Shapiro:

So I think just based on that, he's off the list entirely because I think

Jacob Shapiro:

he sacrificed any future of Russia as a great power in a multipolar world

Jacob Shapiro:

for this fool's errand in Kyiv that wasn't actually gonna get him anything.

Jacob Shapiro:

All Russia will be now because of Mr. Vladimir Putin is a Chinese gas station.

Jacob Shapiro:

Congratulations on your foresight and leadership, Mr. Putin.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

I mean, I think it's even worse than I second, quite frankly, I think, uh, his

Marko Papic:

Nicholas, the first, who, uh, also had a disastrous war in Crimea and then, uh,

Marko Papic:

died or, and or committed suicide because he was, uh, such a terrible leader.

Marko Papic:

Um, Alexander II came afterwards and was a badass.

Marko Papic:

So, what I mean, look, I I, I actually defended Vladimir Putin more than

Marko Papic:

anyone in my circles, from 1999 to 2000, and let's say eight maybe.

Marko Papic:

Why?

Marko Papic:

Because to understand Vladimir Putin, you have to understand how

Marko Papic:

bad Russia was in the nineties.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

It was terrible.

Marko Papic:

It was a complete and utter collapse of society.

Marko Papic:

And if Vladimir Putin shows up, he fixes it.

Marko Papic:

He fixes 80% of it.

Marko Papic:

He really does.

Marko Papic:

He fixed it.

Marko Papic:

He crushed it.

Marko Papic:

He stood up to the west.

Marko Papic:

But in a kind of a cool, like, Hey, I'm a partner, but like,

Marko Papic:

yo, you gotta respect us.

Marko Papic:

We got our own interests.

Marko Papic:

That's all fine and dandy.

Marko Papic:

And then, uh, Ukraine.

Marko Papic:

There were several pro western kind of revolts starting 2004, 2005.

Marko Papic:

The Orange Revolution.

Marko Papic:

Putin handled that masterfully coolly like, like, like James Bond, you know,

Marko Papic:

my name is Putin, Vladimir Putin.

Marko Papic:

Like, go ahead.

Marko Papic:

You want to be pro western, uh, you know, Chenko and Tim

Marko Papic:

Chenko, you guys go right ahead.

Marko Papic:

And what happened?

Marko Papic:

They drowned in their own corruption, feebleness and uh, incompetency.

Marko Papic:

And so in 2010, the election Yanukovich wins Fair and square,

Marko Papic:

you know, hashtag great job.

Marko Papic:

Paul Manafort, you know, so you've got Ukraine basically swing back towards

Marko Papic:

Russia because Putin was cool, calm, and collected, and didn't overreact to this

Marko Papic:

like kind of flirtation with the West.

Marko Papic:

He lets the pro western leaders of Ukraine do what they do best, which is

Marko Papic:

be complete incompetent fools and just swooped in through a democratic process.

Marko Papic:

No problem.

Marko Papic:

Nothing bad happened.

Marko Papic:

And then in 2014 where there's more pro western protests, he loses his cool.

Marko Papic:

So I don't even think that it's 2022.

Marko Papic:

Hmm.

Marko Papic:

That's the problem.

Marko Papic:

You know, I actually think it goes back further.

Marko Papic:

In 2014, he lost his school because let's be very clear, if you annex

Marko Papic:

and remove Donbas and Crimea.

Marko Papic:

Now, of course the Parisian and her, these, these regions of

Marko Papic:

Ukraine that Russia has captured.

Marko Papic:

There's actually Russian ethnic people living there.

Marko Papic:

Not just Russian speaking Ukrainians, but actual ethnic Russians.

Marko Papic:

They're actually politically pro-Russian.

Marko Papic:

They're actually anti-Western, the human beings that live there.

Marko Papic:

That's your kind of fifth column inside of Ukraine.

Marko Papic:

That's your permanent like space inside of Ukraine.

Marko Papic:

They will always vote for pro-Russian like foreign policy and so on.

Marko Papic:

So by taking it out of Ukraine, you've created a far more anti-Russian Ukraine.

Marko Papic:

You've left the rest of Ukraine to be a far more sovereign

Marko Papic:

and self identifiable country.

Marko Papic:

So in other words, not only was the military invasion a blunder,

Marko Papic:

and by the way, I can spend a whole hour on this, maybe we should.

Marko Papic:

'cause there's a whole lot of folks in the West who think that

Marko Papic:

Russia is doing great militarily.

Marko Papic:

They're not.

Marko Papic:

But not only was the military invasion a blunder, but the fact that you decide

Marko Papic:

to carve up Ukraine is an old goal because now you've created Ukraine.

Marko Papic:

You know, one thing that I will agree with, uh, Putin and all of our Ukrainian

Marko Papic:

listeners will light themselves on fire and or cancel us, which is fine.

Marko Papic:

God bless you.

Marko Papic:

The one thing that Vladimir Putin is right about Ukraine is that

Marko Papic:

Ukraine kind of didn't exist.

Marko Papic:

Sorry.

Marko Papic:

And you know who agrees with me?

Marko Papic:

The Sociological Institute of Kiev.

Marko Papic:

In other words, there's been a poll that.

Marko Papic:

The University of Kyiv has been running from the nineties where they

Marko Papic:

ask Ukrainians, what do you feel like?

Marko Papic:

And under 50% of them have felt Ukrainian.

Marko Papic:

So Vladimir Putin is right, right up until he created Ukraine

Marko Papic:

and you created identity twice.

Marko Papic:

There's a huge jump in self-identification of Ukrainian people as Ukrainian

Marko Papic:

after the 2014 invasion by Russia.

Marko Papic:

And then another huge jump in 2022.

Marko Papic:

So you know, if I'm a Ukrainian nationalist, hell, I'm building statues

Marko Papic:

to Vladimir Putin all over Ukraine.

Marko Papic:

'cause he is probably single most responsible person for the creation of a

Marko Papic:

sovereign free and pro western Ukraine.

Marko Papic:

And that you cannot abide.

Marko Papic:

And here's why.

Marko Papic:

Your point about demographics of Russia is very important.

Marko Papic:

Ukraine, 43 million people at its fullest.

Marko Papic:

43 million people who will buy stuffed in nobody else will.

Marko Papic:

You know what we buy from Russia oil, the rest of us.

Marko Papic:

But you know who will buy like a Russian insurance product or

Marko Papic:

a share, or God forbid, a car.

Marko Papic:

Ukrainians.

Marko Papic:

This was your sphere of influence, Vladimir.

Marko Papic:

This is 43 million people, which is like a third of Russia.

Marko Papic:

Highly educated.

Marko Papic:

Pretty wealthy relative to the rest of Russia, you know, um, with

Marko Papic:

similar cultural affinity, similar thoughts, similar dreams, similar

Marko Papic:

tasting music and art and cinema.

Marko Papic:

And yes, also willing to buy your crappy Russia products outside of commodities

Marko Papic:

did none of us would ever wanna buy.

Marko Papic:

'cause we don't find them cute at all.

Marko Papic:

That was Ukraine and you lost it.

Marko Papic:

And what you got instead is West Virginia of Europe.

Marko Papic:

No offense to the mountaineers, West Virginia is fucking awesome.

Marko Papic:

God bless you.

Marko Papic:

But let's be honest, Don Nets, it's like coal mines alright.

Marko Papic:

Like that's what you got.

Marko Papic:

And I think that's an incredible blogger.

Marko Papic:

Anyone who advocates for Vladimir Putin to be on this list is

Marko Papic:

straight up, like just high.

Marko Papic:

Or five, if it's,

Jacob Shapiro:

if it's pre 2014 or pre 2021, like, I think you can make the

Jacob Shapiro:

case that he should be in the top five.

Jacob Shapiro:

But I agree with everything, everything you said.

Jacob Shapiro:

He created Ukraine, he enlarged nato, he forced the best, he best

Jacob Shapiro:

and the brightest to flee Russia.

Jacob Shapiro:

He like put like, you know, uh, he put Russia at the behest of China.

Jacob Shapiro:

He has like, he just did all these other different things.

Marko Papic:

He has handedly made me money and not because I've just, uh,

Marko Papic:

done well playing him, but because my crappy real estate possessions

Marko Papic:

in Belgrade, Serbia that I never thought I would give a shit about.

Marko Papic:

Have basically like quadrupled in price.

Marko Papic:

Thank you Vladimir.

Marko Papic:

Thank you for sending Serbia, a bunch of Russian IT experts who have to rent crappy

Marko Papic:

Soviet departments at egregious prices.

Marko Papic:

So well done, well done.

Marko Papic:

Slow clap for you,

Jacob Shapiro:

Marco.

Jacob Shapiro:

That, that actually reminds me I, before I forget to ask, I wanted to

Jacob Shapiro:

ask you why, why Uch was not on your list to give the Serbian perspective.

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause he's been around for a while and he's got some cred.

Jacob Shapiro:

Why, why did you leave him off?

Marko Papic:

You know, uh, I think I left him off because there's so much potential.

Marko Papic:

First of all, Serbia has one of the, uh, best performing economies in Europe.

Marko Papic:

Uh, the investment into Serbia is skyrocketing.

Marko Papic:

It's incredible.

Marko Papic:

Uh, and it's all thanks to him.

Marko Papic:

Like straight up, like he has created geopolitical stability in the country.

Marko Papic:

Um, and, uh, you know, basically good relationship.

Marko Papic:

He's one of the best balancing acts out there.

Marko Papic:

The problem is that domestically, I feel that, uh.

Marko Papic:

He had so much potential, and that hasn't revealed itself.

Marko Papic:

Hmm.

Marko Papic:

You know, it particularly because he's facing now these, uh, student protests,

Marko Papic:

which are massive against his rule.

Marko Papic:

And no, it's not some sort of foreign interference.

Marko Papic:

It's the fact that basically he's a victim of his own success.

Marko Papic:

So let me explain what I mean.

Marko Papic:

Serbia is no longer concerned about security, basic material needs.

Marko Papic:

Um, you know, it's, it's a country that has economic growth, has investment.

Marko Papic:

That's all thanks to him, actually.

Marko Papic:

But the problem is, once you give people a taste of that success,

Marko Papic:

you have to start delivering on other things, improving governance,

Marko Papic:

improving institutions, and, uh, and he hasn't, uh, and he hasn't done that.

Marko Papic:

You know, the, the level of corruption, the level of, uh, uh, you know, and not

Marko Papic:

all of that is on his back, but he's the leader and he should have cleaned that up.

Marko Papic:

So he's not in the top 30.

Marko Papic:

Uh, I mean, I don't think he's in the bottom 190.

Marko Papic:

You know, many, many other leaders are much worse than Ridge in the world.

Marko Papic:

But I do think that he's a victim of his own success.

Marko Papic:

And by the way, I, I defend OT with, with fellow Serbs because

Marko Papic:

there's a lot of criticism of him.

Marko Papic:

And I always say like, yes, but you wouldn't be criticizing him

Marko Papic:

for corruption and institutional incompetence if the country was still in

Marko Papic:

sanctions or a pariah state and so on.

Marko Papic:

So he's clearly navigated global geopolitics, perhaps better than

Marko Papic:

anyone else, other than, you know, big countries like India or Malaysia.

Marko Papic:

Like, well done.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

The problem is, once you've delivered that.

Marko Papic:

People's appetites and desires rise.

Marko Papic:

And so that's why he's not here.

Marko Papic:

But he's definitely, he hasn't done a huge blunder like Vladimir Putin.

Marko Papic:

Vladimir Putin is just, he's the, the, the largest fall out of anyone.

Marko Papic:

If we did this 10 years ago, Jacob, I agree with you.

Marko Papic:

He would've been easily in the top 10.

Marko Papic:

He's now not even, I think in the top a hundred, Vladimir Putin is an absolute

Marko Papic:

failure over the past three years.

Marko Papic:

I would've defended him in the top five.

Marko Papic:

If we did this in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, a hundred percent,

Marko Papic:

he would've been in my top five.

Marko Papic:

He's out of there.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

And, and he really squandered.

Jacob Shapiro:

I mean, he had everything going with Ukraine.

Jacob Shapiro:

To your point, the way that he wanted.

Jacob Shapiro:

He had everything going with the EU and NATO the way that he wanted.

Jacob Shapiro:

He had everything with Russia going the way that he wanted,

Jacob Shapiro:

like cheap energy, the rise of ai.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, can you get people interested in Russia?

Jacob Shapiro:

Like he just kind of squandered.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, it all, to your point about ish, it sounds like there's not a one-to-one

Jacob Shapiro:

player comparison, but he sounds like Tom Thibodaux, like he's good for getting

Jacob Shapiro:

you to a certain point, but he can't.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

He can't get you above.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yes.

Jacob Shapiro:

That's a

Marko Papic:

good one.

Marko Papic:

That's a good comp.

Marko Papic:

Uh, Tom Thito and Che are a good comp, by the way.

Marko Papic:

One other thing, but

Jacob Shapiro:

Oh, yeah, go ahead.

Marko Papic:

If, if I could just stick with Lair Putin, some of our

Marko Papic:

listeners might say, yes, but the West forced him to invade Ukraine.

Marko Papic:

You know, let's say, oh, please, mayor

Jacob Shapiro:

Shimer.

Jacob Shapiro:

I hope you're listening,

Marko Papic:

but listen, let's see.

Marko Papic:

That's, that's true.

Marko Papic:

Let's say that's true.

Marko Papic:

You know, my mother always used to say to me, if, if j if your friend Jacob told you

Marko Papic:

to jump through a window, would you do it?

Marko Papic:

You know.

Marko Papic:

It's like, fine.

Marko Papic:

Let's say that America entrap Russia, God bless America.

Marko Papic:

That's what rivals are supposed to do.

Marko Papic:

America's not supposed to be nice to you, Russia for, for God's sakes.

Marko Papic:

Of course, the America's trying to get you to invade Ukraine.

Marko Papic:

You don't have to do it.

Marko Papic:

And they did it.

Marko Papic:

They did it, and they didn't do it in 2004 and 2005, they let

Marko Papic:

Orange Revolution burns itself.

Marko Papic:

And you know what would've happened to Zelensky?

Marko Papic:

And we'll get to Zelensky.

Marko Papic:

Your your number two pick.

Marko Papic:

I'm gonna get after that.

Marko Papic:

But you know what would've happened if Zelensky didn't have a war?

Marko Papic:

He would've been the worst president of Ukraine probably ever.

Marko Papic:

He was unpopular.

Marko Papic:

He was incompetent.

Marko Papic:

He didn't know what the fuck he was doing.

Marko Papic:

And then.

Marko Papic:

Putin invades instead of letting Ukraine fall on its sword as it has in the past,

Marko Papic:

again, there is nobody, not even zelensky, more responsible for the success that

Marko Papic:

is Ukraine other than Vladimir Putin.

Marko Papic:

Well done, my friend.

Marko Papic:

Yeah, well done.

Marko Papic:

And

Jacob Shapiro:

I, I think we should talk about Zelensky now too.

Jacob Shapiro:

So I'm gonna give a brief defense.

Jacob Shapiro:

Okay.

Jacob Shapiro:

But I, but, but I do think I'm wrong.

Jacob Shapiro:

So, and, and then you can take it after my brief defense and, and tell me why there's

Jacob Shapiro:

he, he doesn't belong on this list.

Jacob Shapiro:

I will say two things for, for Mr.

Jacob Shapiro:

Zelensky.

Jacob Shapiro:

Number one is incredible courage and bravery.

Jacob Shapiro:

What he did when the invasion started walking around the streets and like giving

Jacob Shapiro:

the Ukrainian people a symbol that was not afraid and unbounded and pushing forward.

Jacob Shapiro:

That was like, most leaders would not do that.

Jacob Shapiro:

That took a tremendous amount of courage.

Jacob Shapiro:

And most leaders will never reach a moment in their career or never hope to

Jacob Shapiro:

reach a moment in their career where they have to show off that kind of courage.

Jacob Shapiro:

And they either have it or they don't.

Jacob Shapiro:

And he has it, like there is something inside of him that said,

Jacob Shapiro:

I will resist, I will push back.

Jacob Shapiro:

And it's admirable, and it's probably why I let myself be blinded a little bit

Jacob Shapiro:

and put him at number two on my list.

Jacob Shapiro:

The second thing I'll say, though, and again, this is a situation

Jacob Shapiro:

that most leaders don't want to be in, but when Putin invaded.

Jacob Shapiro:

It wasn't just the bravery, it was, he understood the mistake that Putin made.

Jacob Shapiro:

He called him on it.

Jacob Shapiro:

He said, okay, fine, let's go.

Jacob Shapiro:

You want to do this?

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, we're gonna do this.

Jacob Shapiro:

You just gave me the way out of my terrible presidency, and now

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm gonna put Ukraine on the map for the next hundred years.

Jacob Shapiro:

And, you know, there have been fits and starts, and he's done some

Jacob Shapiro:

wrong things since the war started.

Jacob Shapiro:

But just, you know, as a wartime president, you can't really

Jacob Shapiro:

ask for much of a better record considering the cards that he held.

Jacob Shapiro:

Now, I'm sure you're about to take him to town for everything

Jacob Shapiro:

that happened before that.

Jacob Shapiro:

And really, I, the reason I think we should talk about him is because he's

Jacob Shapiro:

a creation of Putin's incompetence.

Jacob Shapiro:

He is not himself a leader who would've scaled the heights and

Jacob Shapiro:

done all these things on his own.

Jacob Shapiro:

He needed somebody to make such a monumental error, um, like, you know,

Jacob Shapiro:

trading, uh, uh, of, or, you know, passing on Chris Paul in the draft so

Jacob Shapiro:

that we could get Marvin Williams with the hawks or trading the pick that

Jacob Shapiro:

became Luca Dridge to get Trey Young.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, you need that kind of mistake in order to get a Zelensky figure.

Jacob Shapiro:

Oh my God.

Jacob Shapiro:

So I know you're gonna take him down, but, oh, I'm, I'm, but those

Jacob Shapiro:

are my two things in his defense.

Jacob Shapiro:

Go.

Jacob Shapiro:

First of all,

Marko Papic:

first of all, first of all, every Russia apologist sycophant

Marko Papic:

of Vladimir Putin hates me right now.

Marko Papic:

And now every liberal westerner is gonna hate me too, and I love it.

Marko Papic:

The only thing, the only thing that gives my cold, nihilist heart any

Marko Papic:

fucking passion, is your hatred.

Marko Papic:

So give it to me.

Marko Papic:

I couldn't care less.

Marko Papic:

So right now everybody who secretly has a poster of shirtless Putin and

Marko Papic:

there are many of you out there.

Marko Papic:

I know you, you hate me, right?

Marko Papic:

But now you're gonna, everybody else who reads the Economist and thinks it's a

Marko Papic:

great publication is gonna hate me too.

Marko Papic:

Do you know what my comp is for Zelensky?

Marko Papic:

No, but I can't wait.

Marko Papic:

Jacob.

Marko Papic:

Jacob, it's Mack McClung.

Marko Papic:

You picked Mack McClung as number two in your draft.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

You're telling me he's a great wartime president.

Marko Papic:

That's like telling me he knows how to dunk.

Marko Papic:

By the way, if you don't know this, because you're, I'm sorry.

Marko Papic:

We keep using basketball, we just can't help it.

Marko Papic:

We're degenerates.

Marko Papic:

But Mac McClung, God bless him, he's like a five foot 10 white guy who's

Marko Papic:

won three dunk contests because he's a five foot 10 white guy.

Marko Papic:

But he doesn't play in the NBA.

Marko Papic:

He plays in the development league 'cause he sucks.

Marko Papic:

And being an NBA player, okay, he's not, he's not actually capable of making one

Marko Papic:

of the 30 15 men rosters in the NBA and that's who you pick for your number two.

Marko Papic:

This person is so specialized.

Marko Papic:

Yeah, he was a great wartime, first of all.

Marko Papic:

I would, I would argue against that.

Marko Papic:

I think he was great in the first 18 months.

Marko Papic:

We did this last time, so we're not gonna go over it.

Marko Papic:

I think he's made some disastrous moves over the last 18 months.

Marko Papic:

I think he's completely lost his space.

Marko Papic:

I think he's unrealistic and I think that, uh, his cost Ukraine lives.

Marko Papic:

I think he's caused Ukraine territory and more than that before the invasion.

Marko Papic:

There's a whole slew of things, including that he got suckered by

Marko Papic:

the US into believing he could get a better deal than the mis minka courts

Marko Papic:

that the Europeans negotiated for him.

Marko Papic:

Well, guess what?

Marko Papic:

Millions of lives later, 20% of territory later.

Marko Papic:

How do you like that?

Marko Papic:

How do you like them?

Marko Papic:

Apple?

Marko Papic:

So I think that Zelensky is going to go down in Ukrainian

Marko Papic:

history as a great leader.

Marko Papic:

And he deserves that.

Marko Papic:

Just like Mack McClung is gonna go into history as one of the

Marko Papic:

best NBA slam dunk champions.

Marko Papic:

And he also deserves that.

Marko Papic:

And I don't care 'cause it doesn't make him a great leader.

Marko Papic:

So he's not in my top 30.

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't know that.

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't know that Ukraine exists if he isn't there or somebody like him, isn't

Marko Papic:

there?

Marko Papic:

So that's the, that's the other thing I kind of disagree.

Marko Papic:

I think a lot of people on their list, Jacob, have the temerity of Zelensky.

Marko Papic:

I think they do.

Marko Papic:

Not all of them, I agree.

Marko Papic:

But like sitting there and seeing that he's a great leader because of a personal

Marko Papic:

equality that maybe 30% of humans have, you know, love of your country sacrifice.

Marko Papic:

You know, would, I don't know, like would Georgia Maloney stayed fight?

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

Fuck.

Marko Papic:

I think she would've, I think she would've looked Vladimir Putin straight

Marko Papic:

in the eye and said comment, bring it.

Marko Papic:

But I think she would've also known when to quit.

Marko Papic:

I think she would've also known when to fault them.

Marko Papic:

When not to invade Russia with your best troops to get trapped

Marko Papic:

and killed for no good reason.

Marko Papic:

And so, yeah, I do think that, um, the Western myth of Zelensky is like,

Marko Papic:

oh my God, nobody would've done that.

Marko Papic:

That comes out of the Western elites that they, they truly would not have done it.

Marko Papic:

'cause their kids go to private schools in Bethesda County and you know, they

Marko Papic:

are, they've never actually done anything dangerous in their lives because they

Marko Papic:

don't come from a place where you have to make decisions like that every day.

Marko Papic:

I think there's a slew of leaders out there that do

Marko Papic:

come from places like Ukraine.

Marko Papic:

I come from one of those places and yeah, absolutely.

Marko Papic:

I don't see that, what he did in that moment.

Marko Papic:

I think it's extraordinary.

Marko Papic:

So I don't wanna say it wasn't extraordinary, but I don't think that it

Marko Papic:

was as unique or surprising as I think it is in a western world where we haven't

Marko Papic:

had a serious conflict in 80 years.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think this is great because you, uh, you, you sent me this

Jacob Shapiro:

email, what was it last week or this week, where you said that I was a humble

Jacob Shapiro:

elitist and that you're an arrogant man of the people and we're getting right to

Jacob Shapiro:

this point right here, because I don't think that many people would do what

Jacob Shapiro:

he did and risk their lives to do this.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I think the, the Churchill comparison with Zelensky is overwrought.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think we're constantly looking for the next Churchill because of the myth

Jacob Shapiro:

of Churchill and things like that.

Jacob Shapiro:

But.

Jacob Shapiro:

But there is an element here because if you read the Manchester biographies

Jacob Shapiro:

of Churchill, which are amazing, um, and you read the opening of the first

Jacob Shapiro:

book, he basically does this prologue that makes, like Churchill is the, is

Jacob Shapiro:

the, the antimatter to Hitler that he has many of the same characteristics.

Jacob Shapiro:

He just uses them in favor of liberal democracy and is willing to do all

Jacob Shapiro:

the things and let people die and all of the, you know, narcissism and

Jacob Shapiro:

everything else that comes with it.

Jacob Shapiro:

But that when you're in a war with somebody like of Vladimir

Jacob Shapiro:

Putin, like you need that kind of essential quality to push back.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I think in that way, like Zelensky, like he had that thing.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I don't think that most people have that thing.

Jacob Shapiro:

Maybe Maloney, like maybe some of the top fives on our list have that thing.

Jacob Shapiro:

But like, you know, as we're going down our list, does Anthony

Jacob Shapiro:

Albanese have that quality?

Jacob Shapiro:

Does uh, you know, I, I'm sure Paul Kagame does, but like as you're

Jacob Shapiro:

going down the list, like, but,

Marko Papic:

but, but this is, but Jacob, this is why I don't wanna rank him high.

Marko Papic:

'cause I come from the third world.

Marko Papic:

I come from Serbia.

Marko Papic:

I'm Serbian fully except for quarter German, which makes it even more

Marko Papic:

likely that I will have this view.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

Like when you come from that world, those situations are not that far off.

Marko Papic:

You, you meet them every time you walk to school as a sixth

Marko Papic:

grader, you meet those situations.

Marko Papic:

And so that's why two Apol.

Marko Papic:

And, and it's funny you settled on Paul Kagame.

Marko Papic:

You were like, well, Paul Kagame has it.

Marko Papic:

You know what I, I also think Abi Ahmed has it.

Marko Papic:

Sure.

Marko Papic:

You know, I also think Ab Fat Sii has it, Provo Ibrahim.

Marko Papic:

There's a slew of people that come from the non-Western world

Marko Papic:

where there is volatility, there is conflict, there's pain, there's

Marko Papic:

death, and you're surrounded with it.

Marko Papic:

And so it isn't as surprising, but would it be surprising if, you know,

Marko Papic:

uh, Liz Truss stayed in Kyiv and fought?

Marko Papic:

Yeah, it would've been, it would've been very surprising.

Marko Papic:

And that's why Western journalists obsess about Zelensky because it makes

Marko Papic:

Westerners hearken to an era where like, men were men and women were women.

Marko Papic:

You know, it hearkens back to the idea, uh, to an era when, of that photograph

Marko Papic:

of that, of that Navy, Navy guy kissing a girl in Times Square as the war ends.

Marko Papic:

And so we look at Zelensky, we're like, oh my God, we haven't had that in decades.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

But the rest of the world does.

Marko Papic:

And so I'm not gonna put him in the top 30, you know, because he stayed and fought

Marko Papic:

for his country, because that happens every day in a lot of places in the world.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah, I'm, I'm, I'm, I agree with you that he

Jacob Shapiro:

should not be in the top 10 and maybe not even in the top 30.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think I overindexed based on that.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, but I, I don't think that we should, uh, I don't think that we

Jacob Shapiro:

should downplay like the extent to which he was successful.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'll turn your point about Serbia around on you, your, your Serbian friends who

Jacob Shapiro:

are saying like, okay, you wouldn't have these issues if Vch VCI hadn't done

Jacob Shapiro:

some basic level of remediation here.

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't think there's a Ukraine if there isn't somebody like

Jacob Shapiro:

a Zelensky in power and Kyiv.

Jacob Shapiro:

And it's not just the courage and bravery, it's also like the assessment

Jacob Shapiro:

of, no, Putin can't do this.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, I can win this.

Jacob Shapiro:

I will push the right buttons to push back.

Jacob Shapiro:

And the Churchill comparison is also especially apt because Churchill was

Jacob Shapiro:

a fucking terrible prime minister as soon as the war was over, and they

Jacob Shapiro:

got rid of him as quickly as possible as soon as the gun stopped firing.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I bet you the Ukrainians will get rid of him as soon as possible.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, they'll drive him to the airport and say, go, like, go like Dine Western

Jacob Shapiro:

capitals, go make your TV shows again.

Jacob Shapiro:

You did your job, but you are not fit to be a non-war time leader.

Jacob Shapiro:

But the problem, but the question that, the question I wanna ask you

Jacob Shapiro:

though is, and this is a really fun one, is, so I know that neither,

Jacob Shapiro:

uh, Putin or Zelensky are on your list, but on your list, who's higher?

Jacob Shapiro:

Would you trade Putin for Zelensky?

Jacob Shapiro:

Or would you trade Zelensky for Putin?

Marko Papic:

Yeah, I would think Zelensky.

Marko Papic:

Okay, cool.

Marko Papic:

I mean, I would take Putin over Zelensky a hundred times at a hundred times pre 2014.

Marko Papic:

Um, of course,

Jacob Shapiro:

but today, but today you would take Zelensky over Putin.

Marko Papic:

Absolutely.

Marko Papic:

Yeah, absolutely.

Marko Papic:

Like no, there's no contents.

Marko Papic:

No contents.

Marko Papic:

Uh, Putin has a lot more to work with.

Marko Papic:

He has more resources.

Marko Papic:

He is, uh, he's the catalyst.

Marko Papic:

He has choice, he has agency and he's using incorrectly.

Marko Papic:

But one thing I will say that if you are going to compare landscape with

Marko Papic:

Churchill, you know, one thing that I would say is that, first of all,

Marko Papic:

Churchill was a terrible military strategist before World War ii.

Marko Papic:

I mean, he's, he's, he's the reason Gallipoli failed.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, go, go, go check your history.

Jacob Shapiro:

My cousin.

Jacob Shapiro:

I, I, no, I think he gets a bad rap for that.

Jacob Shapiro:

Okay.

Jacob Shapiro:

And he's also responsible for lots of different advances and things like that.

Jacob Shapiro:

So,

Marko Papic:

okay.

Marko Papic:

Well, that's fine.

Marko Papic:

I mean, yes.

Marko Papic:

Technological advancements, yes.

Marko Papic:

The tank and so on.

Marko Papic:

But what I would say is that in World War ii, he was really good.

Marko Papic:

That's where I was headed.

Marko Papic:

I, I think that if you're going to defend Lansky's track record and say wartime

Marko Papic:

president, you can't then ignore the, the blunders of his strategy as well.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

And I think that that's where I think, um, that's why I would probably

Marko Papic:

have him top 30 if he had just kept making the right military moves.

Marko Papic:

But he hasn't, the offensive in 2023 was way too, way too, uh,

Marko Papic:

aggressive, way too overbuild.

Marko Papic:

He didn't know what to start negotiating.

Marko Papic:

And then finally, I think the curse invasion was just unnecessary.

Marko Papic:

So I do think that there's a lot of things that he's also done.

Marko Papic:

That don't make sense on the military level.

Marko Papic:

So not just politic.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

Alright.

Marko Papic:

Well, we go to,

Jacob Shapiro:

he, he's, he's, he's a standup comic, not a general, like,

Jacob Shapiro:

Churchill spent his life reading about strategy and things like

Jacob Shapiro:

that, like Zelensky did not like.

Jacob Shapiro:

And yeah, so

Marko Papic:

that, that's a, that's a very good point too.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

Uh, I think, I think, uh, he has maximized his potential, just like Mac

Marko Papic:

McClung has thus great comp, great comp.

Marko Papic:

Um, by the way, your video is frozen for me, but I hope mine isn't for you.

Marko Papic:

So I don't know what's going on, but like

Jacob Shapiro:

No, it's not.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm fine.

Jacob Shapiro:

I, and I'm recording here locally, so we're good.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm sorry I'm frozen.

Marko Papic:

No, no, no.

Marko Papic:

It's okay.

Marko Papic:

Alright, so we gotta talk about two, two big ones, right?

Marko Papic:

Two big ones, two guys that, uh, we're gonna keep Trump for the

Marko Papic:

end, uh, but let's do Xi Jinping.

Marko Papic:

So, you know, like Xi Jinping.

Marko Papic:

And by the way, please, uh, bring up some other ones you wanna discuss.

Marko Papic:

But I wanted to talk about Xi Jinping.

Marko Papic:

You had him, uh, a very, uh, very high, you had it six.

Marko Papic:

I did not have him in top 30.

Marko Papic:

Uh, just like with Vladimir Putin, I am disappointed, uh,

Marko Papic:

in some of his performance.

Marko Papic:

I think geopolitically, we don't have to discuss it.

Marko Papic:

I think I, you know, we can probably agree with a lot of geopolitical moves.

Marko Papic:

There's the wolf warrior diplomacy.

Marko Papic:

You brought up yourself in the first part of this series as, as an own goal.

Marko Papic:

Uh, I have two issues, which Xi Jinping, first and foremost, I think

Marko Papic:

in 2012 when he ascended to power, he decided to wake up a sleeping giant,

Marko Papic:

a giant that was stuck in the morass and the sands of the Middle East.

Marko Papic:

I think he overly aggressively pursued some of the national

Marko Papic:

security interests of China.

Marko Papic:

There is absolutely nothing that China needs to do.

Marko Papic:

There's nothing inherently necessary in the South China Sea.

Marko Papic:

You don't have to start pushing into the South China Sea in 2012.

Marko Papic:

You can wait until 2030.

Marko Papic:

Uh, the United States of America is today 2025.

Marko Papic:

It's July 9th, 2025.

Marko Papic:

The United States of America is spending its tax dollars on ensuring

Marko Papic:

the security of Chinese oil supply.

Marko Papic:

I mean, that's literally what's happening today.

Marko Papic:

The Fifth fleet in Bahrain is not securing my gasoline.

Marko Papic:

It's securing your gasoline Xi Jinping.

Marko Papic:

So you have actually not done anything to improve that situation.

Marko Papic:

And by waking up the United States of America to the assertiveness of China,

Marko Papic:

I think that he accelerated the need to challenge, uh, the United States too soon.

Marko Papic:

So that's the first issue.

Marko Papic:

I think that was, uh, that was unnecessary.

Marko Papic:

You know, the 2020s could have been the decade where China wakes up America.

Marko Papic:

It didn't have to happen in 2010s.

Marko Papic:

Uh, the second thing I would say is that China wasn't the path towards a lot

Marko Papic:

more entrepreneurship and innovation.

Marko Papic:

I mean, it has the wallops of it already.

Marko Papic:

So it's not like they're, you know, doing poorly.

Marko Papic:

I mean, obviously EVs, uh, there's a, there's a lot in the

Marko Papic:

financial sector where the payment technology is much better than ours.

Marko Papic:

There's biotech.

Marko Papic:

Biotech.

Marko Papic:

Yes, biotech for sure.

Marko Papic:

Uh, so, but that could have been better.

Marko Papic:

Why tinker with the model?

Marko Papic:

Now?

Marko Papic:

Yes, there is income inequality.

Marko Papic:

I agree with that a hundred percent.

Marko Papic:

But do you improve income inequality by stifling innovation or do you improve

Marko Papic:

income inequality by creating, you know, things that a communist party should care

Marko Papic:

about, like a healthcare system, like a social security and pension system?

Marko Papic:

Those are the things that the state is failing to provide in China.

Marko Papic:

It's, it's not, it's not entrepreneurship and income inequality of the top.

Marko Papic:

That's the problem.

Marko Papic:

The problem is that the state provides very scant, uh, very

Marko Papic:

scant social welfare network.

Marko Papic:

And that's, by the way, the root of many problems in China.

Marko Papic:

The reason that people buy so many condos is because they expect to sell

Marko Papic:

them so that they can get dentures when they're older so that they can, you

Marko Papic:

know, heal themselves when they're older.

Marko Papic:

That's, that's the imbalance to this economy.

Marko Papic:

And quite frankly, this guy's been in charge for 13 years and he has not

Marko Papic:

addressed that social, uh, welfare state that's actually pretty poor Amer

Marko Papic:

uh, America and China in many ways.

Marko Papic:

Similar.

Marko Papic:

I mean, one of them is that they don't rebalance income inequality

Marko Papic:

and, um, and they don't have.

Marko Papic:

The level of government spending on social welfare state that I think

Marko Papic:

an advanced economy would have.

Marko Papic:

So, um, I think that's another failure.

Marko Papic:

So those are my two problems with Xi Jinping.

Marko Papic:

I think he challenged the US unnecessarily early.

Marko Papic:

Seems like an ego play quite frankly.

Marko Papic:

He ascend to power.

Marko Papic:

So China must then at that moment, challenged the us.

Marko Papic:

I thought that was unnecessary.

Marko Papic:

And then the second thing is, uh, he and his government have

Marko Papic:

talked about social welfare state.

Marko Papic:

They understand how important it is in reducing leverage to condos

Marko Papic:

in real estate, but they haven't actually addressed it significantly.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, you and I disagree on this and maybe I have rose tinted glasses

Jacob Shapiro:

when it comes to Xi Jinping.

Jacob Shapiro:

This is the first thing I can think of as cousins that we like.

Jacob Shapiro:

We truly are on opposite sides of this.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, I think you're reading.

Jacob Shapiro:

His embrace of Chinese nationalism in 2012 and 2013.

Jacob Shapiro:

Wrong.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I think you're underestimating just how bad the situation was

Jacob Shapiro:

in China when he became leader.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, you had, you know, Deng Xiaoping eventually leaves the scene and then

Jacob Shapiro:

you have by consensus these rulers who are coming in every five years and

Jacob Shapiro:

China's becoming fabulously wealthy, but it's also becoming even more corrupt

Jacob Shapiro:

and it's becoming even more unequal.

Jacob Shapiro:

And you get to the point where the factions can't agree on who the next

Jacob Shapiro:

consensus candidate is gonna be.

Jacob Shapiro:

And they end up on the, the middling person that everybody

Jacob Shapiro:

can agree, okay, fine.

Jacob Shapiro:

We'll do that because he doesn't give me everything that I want.

Jacob Shapiro:

And they pick this guy Xi Jinping.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I think when Xi Jinping comes into power, he thinks that something

Jacob Shapiro:

is fundamentally broken in China, and that if he does not fix things,

Jacob Shapiro:

this system and the Communist Party underneath it is going to come apart

Jacob Shapiro:

at the seams because the ideological legitimacy of the party is dead.

Jacob Shapiro:

It was all gone.

Jacob Shapiro:

It was all these corrupt parties with your bogie lies and Lamborghinis everywhere,

Jacob Shapiro:

and people hanging out in the coast having great parties and people in

Jacob Shapiro:

the interior are less than $2 a day.

Jacob Shapiro:

So like the ideology of communism.

Jacob Shapiro:

Was dead and he needed to buy some time to rebuild communism and rebuild

Jacob Shapiro:

that sense of, so social equality in the welfare state that you're

Jacob Shapiro:

talking about, uh, while not having people come at him with a knives.

Jacob Shapiro:

So I think he started with this notion of Chinese nationalism and yes, starts

Jacob Shapiro:

playing around with the South China Sea and Taiwan because communism is

Jacob Shapiro:

nothing, it's bankrupt at this point.

Jacob Shapiro:

And he needs to give the Chinese people something other than, Hey, like,

Jacob Shapiro:

you know, the preternatural growth you've had for the last 30 years,

Jacob Shapiro:

it's not gonna happen for the next 30.

Jacob Shapiro:

We can't deliver that to you.

Jacob Shapiro:

So I have to give you, the state has to give you something else

Jacob Shapiro:

rather than the growth that you've become accustomed to if you're gonna

Jacob Shapiro:

continue to believe in the system.

Jacob Shapiro:

And by the way, I've got all these local governments and these military

Jacob Shapiro:

guys and these boje lies that are running around that have way too

Jacob Shapiro:

much money and way too much power.

Jacob Shapiro:

And if I don't do something here, we're closer to warring

Jacob Shapiro:

states than you might think.

Jacob Shapiro:

So I think he takes that first period of time.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um.

Jacob Shapiro:

To do that, to purge people, to get rid of people, to reassert the Chinese Communist

Jacob Shapiro:

Party and what it's supposed to stand for to get people accustomed to the idea that,

Jacob Shapiro:

okay, like the last 30 years, the growth you've seen, it's probably not gonna

Jacob Shapiro:

be like that for the next generation.

Jacob Shapiro:

I need you to buy into the state.

Jacob Shapiro:

I need social stability.

Jacob Shapiro:

I need you to think as the state of the arbiter of equality.

Jacob Shapiro:

And also I need you to have national pride in China as a national project

Jacob Shapiro:

because obviously, and ironically the, you know, communism with Chinese

Jacob Shapiro:

characteristics wasn't quite doing it.

Jacob Shapiro:

If you go back to Xi Jinping's early speeches, and he still

Jacob Shapiro:

talks, talks like this.

Jacob Shapiro:

He, he sounds like Ronald Reagan.

Jacob Shapiro:

He talks about supply side reform and things that belong in like 1980s

Jacob Shapiro:

western deregulation narratives that are coming out of the president of

Jacob Shapiro:

China when he's sort of first in power.

Jacob Shapiro:

Now.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think you're absolutely right that he went off the rails.

Jacob Shapiro:

He, he went too early around 20 18, 19 when he is doing wolf warrior stuff and

Jacob Shapiro:

he is got the first Trump presidency.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think he overestimated how strong he was at that particular moment, and I think

Jacob Shapiro:

it's actually a good sign of a leader who recognizes a mistake and walks it back.

Jacob Shapiro:

So that's the first thing I would say.

Jacob Shapiro:

The second thing I would say is that.

Jacob Shapiro:

For all your shade at, uh, thrown at the Economist, you sound like somebody who

Jacob Shapiro:

reads The Economist when you're fetching about China and its private markets.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, this is exactly the thing that Xi Jinping diagnosed.

Jacob Shapiro:

He's been talking about it since 2015 and he's been trying to do it.

Jacob Shapiro:

And doing it in a country like China with a billion people with a sclerotic

Jacob Shapiro:

authoritarian, Marxist communist system is really fucking hard.

Jacob Shapiro:

So that's why he let the real estate bubble pop because he wants Chinese

Jacob Shapiro:

people to do what the Indians are doing.

Jacob Shapiro:

He wants them to go put their money in the market.

Jacob Shapiro:

He wants them to trust the market enough that they will do that rather

Jacob Shapiro:

than buying the third or fourth condo.

Jacob Shapiro:

And he hasn't been able to pull it off quite yet.

Jacob Shapiro:

He still doesn't have the average Chinese person trusting the

Jacob Shapiro:

market the way that they want.

Jacob Shapiro:

But the flip side of this is that he knows, as Deng Xiaoping knows after

Jacob Shapiro:

Tianmen, if you give too much freedom, if you give too much openness, it will be a

Jacob Shapiro:

challenge to the Chinese Communist Party.

Jacob Shapiro:

So yes, we need to stimulate innovation and growth and all these other things,

Jacob Shapiro:

but it also needs to be at the behest of the Chinese Communist Party.

Jacob Shapiro:

So that's why in 20, I think it was 21 or was it late 2020, I forget.

Jacob Shapiro:

He gets the leaders of the major China tech.

Jacob Shapiro:

Companies like your 10 cents and Alibabas and says, okay, you guys

Jacob Shapiro:

need to make sure that X percent of your budget is going towards social.

Jacob Shapiro:

We welfare in China and devoting money to things that actually make things

Jacob Shapiro:

better for Chinese people and companies like Tencent said, yes sir, Mr. Emperor.

Jacob Shapiro:

And people like Jack Ma said, no sir. And look what happened to him and

Jacob Shapiro:

look at what happened to the ant IPO.

Jacob Shapiro:

He had to make an example of them just as he made an example of Bo and he made

Jacob Shapiro:

an example of the real estate market so that a couple years later he could

Jacob Shapiro:

start to loosen the ties and say, okay, now you understand how serious I am.

Jacob Shapiro:

You also understand that the United States is coming for us in the long run.

Jacob Shapiro:

You need to align yourselves with the state.

Jacob Shapiro:

So I think it's unrealistic to suggest that China's gonna

Jacob Shapiro:

replicate what worked in the West.

Jacob Shapiro:

They have to have a version of openness and tech innovation

Jacob Shapiro:

that also allows that Communist party to maintain its power base.

Jacob Shapiro:

And maybe it won't work.

Jacob Shapiro:

Xi Jinping has not announced a successor.

Jacob Shapiro:

He's getting old.

Jacob Shapiro:

There's some weird stuff.

Jacob Shapiro:

And then like he didn't come to the Brick Summit.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like the biggest risk to him is like, what if he gets hit by a car tomorrow?

Jacob Shapiro:

And there isn't a successor and he hasn't been able to work out

Jacob Shapiro:

some of these things in time.

Jacob Shapiro:

But I just think in terms of degree of difficulty, in terms of vision,

Jacob Shapiro:

in terms of the scope and level of the challenges that he's gone after.

Jacob Shapiro:

And he has every single rival he has.

Jacob Shapiro:

He has either eliminated or eviscerated or put in a gulag somewhere, uh, and he is

Jacob Shapiro:

hanging on the global stage and people are thinking better of China, uh, than they

Jacob Shapiro:

are in some places of the United States.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like all those things together, like I see a leader who has done a very,

Jacob Shapiro:

very good job and who was dealt a very, very bad hand, um, at the beginning.

Jacob Shapiro:

So that's my defense of him.

Marko Papic:

Yeah, I mean, my con here is that I think you can do

Marko Papic:

anti-corruption drive, which I agree with.

Marko Papic:

I think that that was correct.

Marko Papic:

You know, that was genuine in the West.

Marko Papic:

A lot of people thought the Xi Jinping was just taking out rivals, but it was

Marko Papic:

genuinely an anti-corruption drive.

Marko Papic:

It wasn't just about the dragons, it was about the flies as well.

Marko Papic:

Right.

Marko Papic:

That was the kind of focus of the government.

Marko Papic:

I think it can be successful without making the other own goals.

Marko Papic:

I think where we disagree is that you see everything as sort of centrally

Marko Papic:

about the anti-corruption drive.

Marko Papic:

And so you're saying like, look, he needed to ramp up nationalism in order to also

Marko Papic:

pursue something that was good for China.

Marko Papic:

So I think we disagree on that for partly that's just fine.

Marko Papic:

But I don't, I I, I agree with you that in 2012 going after corruption

Marko Papic:

in China was, was, uh, extraordinarily difficult and he has for the

Marko Papic:

most part really been successful.

Marko Papic:

The part where I disagree also is, uh, the supply side reforms.

Marko Papic:

You said he sounds like Reagan.

Marko Papic:

Um, I'm okay with him letting the real estate bubble pop.

Marko Papic:

I'm okay with some of his supply side reforms that focused on dirty

Marko Papic:

industries and sort of antiquated industries that he's gone after.

Marko Papic:

My problem is that when he started interfering with private business in a

Marko Papic:

very haphazard way, so you mentioned, uh, going after tech entrepreneurs

Marko Papic:

fine, telling 10 cents to pay effect effectively a higher corporate tax

Marko Papic:

rate is not what I'm talking about.

Marko Papic:

I'm talking about, you know, Jack Muds appearing.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

I'm talking about waking up, waking up on the wrong side of the bed

Marko Papic:

and saying like, you know what?

Marko Papic:

Computer games are anti-revolutionary.

Marko Papic:

Or like waking up on the wrong side of the bed, ano a different day

Marko Papic:

and saying that, you know, tuition programs, uh, are anti-revolutionary.

Marko Papic:

And so it's that kind of like ter skelter intervention in the private

Marko Papic:

sector and in the tech space that's not very hands off Les Fairish.

Marko Papic:

And I think that, um, that's the one thing where again, he

Marko Papic:

didn't really have to do that.

Marko Papic:

You can.

Marko Papic:

Like, it's just not necessary, you know, like No,

Jacob Shapiro:

I, I think it, I think it is necessary if, if you're Xi Jinping

Jacob Shapiro:

and you've been dealt the cards that you have, it absolutely is necessary.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yes.

Jacob Shapiro:

The video games are counter-revolutionary, and yes, you don't want the students

Jacob Shapiro:

going to the universities to learn about the rest of the world.

Jacob Shapiro:

That's absolutely counter-revolution.

Jacob Shapiro:

I know.

Jacob Shapiro:

But then China, China gets in trouble when the emperor doesn't

Jacob Shapiro:

have control when the hills are high.

Jacob Shapiro:

But yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

And the emperor's far away.

Jacob Shapiro:

He needed control, but also needed to let China still innovate and grow.

Jacob Shapiro:

And that's the weirdest thing about China.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's become more authoritarian and yet more creative and more innovative.

Jacob Shapiro:

And in our Western language, that's not supposed to happen.

Jacob Shapiro:

He's not supposed to be able to do the things that you're talking about

Jacob Shapiro:

that make us both uncomfortable.

Jacob Shapiro:

And yet China goes from strength to strength when it comes to innovation

Jacob Shapiro:

and technological development.

Jacob Shapiro:

But I'm not sure that's what's happening.

Marko Papic:

But how do you know that it's going from strength to strength?

Marko Papic:

Like what are we comparing it to?

Marko Papic:

I mean, it's a counterfactual.

Jacob Shapiro:

Look, look at their education system.

Jacob Shapiro:

Look at the PhDs that they're minting.

Jacob Shapiro:

Look at the patents that they're getting.

Jacob Shapiro:

Look at their share of like biotech startups and all

Jacob Shapiro:

these other different things.

Jacob Shapiro:

Okay, sure.

Jacob Shapiro:

But they're, but they're already outclassing the United States on

Jacob Shapiro:

these things with what they're doing.

Marko Papic:

I know, but like the economy is clearly sclerotic.

Marko Papic:

So like, uh, letting the real estate, uh, bubble pop has not been

Marko Papic:

replicated by another source of growth.

Marko Papic:

Right.

Marko Papic:

And so that's, that pivot did not happen because he has stifled the private sector.

Marko Papic:

He has stifled consum consumption and letting the real estate bubble

Marko Papic:

pop was then complimented with very antiquated ways of solving it.

Marko Papic:

So in other words, he didn't listen to Richard coup, he

Marko Papic:

didn't offset that decline.

Marko Papic:

It's very painful, de-leveraging.

Marko Papic:

Um, and some of the ways that you're defending him suggest that it's like

Marko Papic:

good for him, but it's not, I'm not sure that it's really good for China.

Marko Papic:

I'm not sure that China's better off in 2025 than it would've been

Marko Papic:

with somebody who could both be anti-corruption and semi authoritarian.

Marko Papic:

Which, you know, like I kind of agree with you.

Marko Papic:

It is to an extent relevant for China at this point of development, but at the same

Marko Papic:

time could have done other things better,

Jacob Shapiro:

you know?

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah, well

Marko Papic:

I, it's a semantic thing

Jacob Shapiro:

and, but, but I wouldn't say that he stifled consumption.

Jacob Shapiro:

I would say that the problem of multiple Chinese leaders, including Xi Jinping,

Jacob Shapiro:

is that the Chinese pension is not to consume for exactly the reasons

Jacob Shapiro:

you think about political mistrust.

Jacob Shapiro:

And you're right that he has not been able to move them towards consumption.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think part of the impulse around national pride is to buy Chinese.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, I want you guys to consume more.

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't want you to just buy condos.

Jacob Shapiro:

And he has not been able to do that.

Jacob Shapiro:

But I don't think he's stifling something that was happening.

Jacob Shapiro:

He has been trying to, to beat the dead horse to do the thing

Jacob Shapiro:

as have previous Chinese leaders.

Jacob Shapiro:

And the Chinese people are just like, uh, we were, remember

Jacob Shapiro:

Mao, why would we do this?

Jacob Shapiro:

We're gonna invest in things that make more sense rather than

Jacob Shapiro:

what you want us to invest in.

Jacob Shapiro:

And this I think, also is a good, um.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's a good comparison.

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause let's think of our boy bouquet.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's easier to put bouquet as number one on my list because the scale of

Jacob Shapiro:

what he's dealing with is so small.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like El salvador's a That's a good point.

Jacob Shapiro:

A really, really small country.

Jacob Shapiro:

If you put now boule.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah, yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

With one problem.

Jacob Shapiro:

If you put bouquet in charge of China and he tried to do that, how, how many

Jacob Shapiro:

tens of millions would be dead and in gulags if you tried to do the same thing.

Jacob Shapiro:

And Xi Jinping, and this is one of the things that I think is so

Jacob Shapiro:

interesting about him and history will tell if it's positive or not.

Jacob Shapiro:

Remember his father was purged by Mao in the cultural revolution.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like Xi Jinping's childhood was fucked up precisely because he experienced maoism

Jacob Shapiro:

at its height and he envisions himself as a Mao or Deng xiaoping level leader.

Jacob Shapiro:

But one who has to give China that level of control without the chaos.

Jacob Shapiro:

Because if he brings the Maoist chaos, he will, you know, self-defeat

Jacob Shapiro:

everything that he's going.

Jacob Shapiro:

So I would be the first to admit to you that yes, he has errors and

Jacob Shapiro:

problems and unforced goals and all these other different things.

Jacob Shapiro:

But again, I, I would just go back to the scale and the degree of

Jacob Shapiro:

difficulty on the problem and what he's been able to do in advance of that.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like that to me, like gives me like, that's fair.

Jacob Shapiro:

Some, like, if, if you put him in charge of the United States today,

Jacob Shapiro:

he'd be like, this is, this is so easy.

Jacob Shapiro:

What do you mean?

Jacob Shapiro:

I get, I get to do all this stuff and I don't have to worry about all these other

Jacob Shapiro:

things like piece of cake, let's go.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, that's how I see him,

Marko Papic:

I think.

Marko Papic:

I think he does deserve a lot of credit.

Marko Papic:

For pivoting out of some problems he created himself, unlike Vladimir

Marko Papic:

Putin who likes to triple down.

Marko Papic:

So, uh, you know, you mentioned that yes, he woke up the United States too early,

Marko Papic:

but he didn't like triple down on that.

Marko Papic:

No, so that's a good point.

Marko Papic:

I think he's, uh, pivoted out of the anti-corruption campaign when needed

Marko Papic:

pivoted out of zero COVID when needed.

Marko Papic:

He has the ability to calibrate, which is a huge, huge quality that, um,

Marko Papic:

ironically a lot of leaders just don't, because they become overly ego driven.

Marko Papic:

You know, they can't, they can't change things.

Marko Papic:

Uh, so, uh, I think you've convinced me, I think he deserves a top 30 status.

Marko Papic:

You know, I, I will say that, and certainly, certainly, um, when I left

Marko Papic:

him off my list, it wasn't because I saw him as negative as Vladimir Putin.

Marko Papic:

I mean, in my view, Vladimir Putin is in the bottom to 30%.

Marko Papic:

Uh, to me, v you know, Xi Jinping is somewhere in the top 60, 70, but you

Marko Papic:

know, I think you've made a good case for why he should be in the top 30.

Marko Papic:

So that's, that's a very fa uh, fair defense.

Marko Papic:

He ends up, where is he again?

Marko Papic:

On our, the updated list?

Marko Papic:

He ends up, uh, he's at 21.

Marko Papic:

I think.

Marko Papic:

I'm, I'm comfortable with that.

Marko Papic:

I think, uh, well don't lie.

Marko Papic:

And our advanced AI mathematics has put him at 21st spot after you put him at six.

Marko Papic:

And I didn't have him, I think.

Marko Papic:

I think that's appropriate.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, well, and just, and just last thought on him before we

Jacob Shapiro:

move to the, the elephant in the room.

Jacob Shapiro:

President Trump.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, like I, I think that Xi Jinping is also in Vladimir Putin territory.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like this is a very, very dangerous period in his rule because it's

Jacob Shapiro:

his interesting third term.

Jacob Shapiro:

There's no successor like he's facing, like the walls are closing in a bit.

Jacob Shapiro:

He's facing a United States that is not just woken up, that is completely woken

Jacob Shapiro:

up and is going after China meaningfully.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's one of the only bipartisan issues.

Jacob Shapiro:

And Xi Jinping has not announced a successor.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like there's, there's a very real sense, and he could make a strategic

Jacob Shapiro:

error tomorrow and he could drop down this list the way that Putin did.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like if Xi Jinping ordered an invasion of Taiwan, he would

Jacob Shapiro:

fall to like 180 on this list.

Jacob Shapiro:

If he dies tomorrow of a heart attack and he has not put in a system for

Jacob Shapiro:

picking the next ruler, and you get factional disagreements and maybe

Jacob Shapiro:

even internal fighting in China about what's comes next, then he gets

Jacob Shapiro:

like, put down this list as well.

Jacob Shapiro:

So I think he's at a very dangerous moment where he's been leader for this long.

Jacob Shapiro:

Maybe like the Kool-Aid is starting to go to his head.

Jacob Shapiro:

Maybe he's just getting old.

Jacob Shapiro:

Who knows?

Jacob Shapiro:

Like it's a very precarious position for him.

Jacob Shapiro:

But I do think, like based on what he's done so far, like he's,

Jacob Shapiro:

it's a high degree of difficulty and, and he is done a good job.

Marko Papic:

The man is spring chicken, you know what I mean?

Marko Papic:

73 years old.

Marko Papic:

He is young.

Marko Papic:

72 man's.

Marko Papic:

72. He just turned 72.

Marko Papic:

My God.

Marko Papic:

What a world we live in.

Marko Papic:

Alright, let's go to the elephant.

Marko Papic:

The elephant in the room is Donald Trump.

Marko Papic:

Uh, I was shocked by the surprising, uh, low number of.

Marko Papic:

Actually, nobody wrote in with a problem with that.

Marko Papic:

Uh, one, uh, one, uh, listener said they were surprised that I didn't

Marko Papic:

have Donald Trump on the list because I've defended him on, uh, our

Marko Papic:

podcast probably more than you have.

Marko Papic:

Um, and so I'll just, I'll just kick off why I did not put President Trump.

Marko Papic:

It's very, very difficult to gauge the performance of a US president.

Marko Papic:

And the reason I say that, I know to a lot of you, it's very

Marko Papic:

easy because you just hate him.

Marko Papic:

And that's cool.

Marko Papic:

You know, have fun with that.

Marko Papic:

We have fun with that or love him.

Marko Papic:

Um, but the problem is that the United States of America is the

Marko Papic:

most powerful country in the world.

Marko Papic:

Like when we ranked countries, it's number one, it is really

Marko Papic:

difficult to gauge performance.

Marko Papic:

And the reason I say that is because President Trump, you know, he's

Marko Papic:

very tough in negotiations and you get to do that when you are the

Marko Papic:

most powerful country in the world.

Marko Papic:

So, um, that's why it's very tough for, for me, with any US president

Marko Papic:

to really gauge whether or not they are doing a very good job.

Marko Papic:

Um, the other issue is that I think that President Trump quite

Marko Papic:

often identifies issues like hinge issues that need to be fixed.

Marko Papic:

I think he's very, very good at that, and I would give him a lot of credit on that.

Marko Papic:

But the problem is that he then uses rhetoric.

Marko Papic:

That makes it more difficult to solve that problem in the domestic political

Marko Papic:

context because he's not Xi Jinping.

Marko Papic:

He's not Vladimir Putin.

Marko Papic:

He doesn't run a country where he can just use executive orders to change the world.

Marko Papic:

He does need to go through Congress.

Marko Papic:

And so you are often sitting there and you're like, wow, you really identified

Marko Papic:

an issue that needs to be solved.

Marko Papic:

Well done.

Marko Papic:

But why did you say it like that?

Marko Papic:

That's unnecessary.

Marko Papic:

So I think that his governance style often makes it more difficult for

Marko Papic:

him to get things through Congress.

Marko Papic:

And by the way, he's got about 12 months left until we got the midterms

Marko Papic:

and he loses the house, which he will.

Marko Papic:

And at that point, what happens?

Marko Papic:

I mean, everything is gonna grind to halt.

Marko Papic:

He's not gonna get anything done.

Marko Papic:

So for like, to me, immigration reform is a clear thing that needs to happen.

Marko Papic:

That is something that he needs to do.

Marko Papic:

I'm not sure if that's gonna happen given the way that he has gone about

Marko Papic:

enforcing immigration policy right now.

Marko Papic:

So, uh, I think that his rhetorical, uh, style is not very conducive to compromise.

Marko Papic:

Um, and, and ultimately compromise is what's needed, even if his end

Marko Papic:

goals are far more moderate than his critics actually accuse him of.

Marko Papic:

So those are my two problems.

Marko Papic:

I, I don't know how to gauge President of the United States of America

Marko Papic:

who has awesome power before them.

Marko Papic:

They can wield incredible power.

Marko Papic:

It's difficult to gauge any US President, not just Donald Trump.

Marko Papic:

How, how would Barack Obama.

Marko Papic:

Deal with being a president of El Salvador, you know, how would

Marko Papic:

Donald Trump deal with being the prime minister of Italy?

Marko Papic:

How would, how would that work?

Marko Papic:

I'm not sure.

Marko Papic:

It's difficult to say, and I'm not sure that his style would work in

Marko Papic:

a mid power or another country.

Marko Papic:

So if I am, uh, you know, picking the next leader for Belgium, would I pick

Marko Papic:

Donald Trump over Georgia Maloney?

Marko Papic:

The answer is just, no.

Marko Papic:

No, because I don't know if he can, if he has the range to be a leader

Marko Papic:

of a smaller, less powerful country.

Marko Papic:

And then the second thing is, I think his, his heart, that his brain are often

Marko Papic:

in the right place, actually, and this is where I disagree with most of his critics.

Marko Papic:

The problem is that his execution and the rhetoric leaves a

Marko Papic:

lot of things, uh, desired.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

So a a few things for me, if I'm being honest with myself, and if I'm

Jacob Shapiro:

looking at my list, um, I feel pretty comfortable with him not being on

Jacob Shapiro:

the list until I start getting down to like pro boho and Aliev and ce.

Jacob Shapiro:

And there's a part of me that says, you know what, maybe he slots in there

Jacob Shapiro:

because everybody above that know I would trade Trump for in a heartbeat.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, but you start getting to some of those lower names on my list, like Paul Kagame.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think I'd rather have Donald Trump as president of the United

Jacob Shapiro:

States than Paul Kagame or Abbi Ahmad or some of these others.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, so, so maybe I need this to be a little nicer to Trump on the list.

Marko Papic:

But those are, those are overflow candidates.

Marko Papic:

Let's just be very clear.

Marko Papic:

Those are 30 to 44, so, you know.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

So it's, it's, it's.

Marko Papic:

Yeah, he's in Downage.

Marko Papic:

I agree.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

But, um, I, I think there are four main points that

Jacob Shapiro:

I would make for why I, I didn't have him on my list when I did it.

Jacob Shapiro:

The first is, and there might be some others on this list who are

Jacob Shapiro:

guilty of this, but he's guilty of it more than any of them.

Jacob Shapiro:

The dude was born with money and influence, and that

Jacob Shapiro:

makes a big difference.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like Xi Jinping, who we, he who we were just talking about, I mean, he had to

Jacob Shapiro:

reli rehabilitate himself in the context of Maoism to ascend political circles.

Jacob Shapiro:

Donald Trump was born with billions in his mouth.

Jacob Shapiro:

He was born with a silver spoon.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, I could become, I think, a successful politician if I had

Jacob Shapiro:

billions of dollars in my back pocket, and I think most people could.

Jacob Shapiro:

So, like, I think that that meaningfully like matters.

Jacob Shapiro:

And if you're thinking about politician, like politics is a skill.

Jacob Shapiro:

If you've already got the money, if you don't have to worry about it,

Jacob Shapiro:

like it, it makes it easier to do it.

Jacob Shapiro:

The second is, and, and you sort of touched on this, Trump, um, he

Jacob Shapiro:

has incredible instincts for power.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like he understands power instinctually, he understands where to put leverage.

Jacob Shapiro:

You know, the Mr.

Jacob Shapiro:

Dealmaker in chief, all these other things, like, he's

Jacob Shapiro:

very, very good at that.

Jacob Shapiro:

He is just as bad at strategy as he is good at instinctual sense of power.

Jacob Shapiro:

If the guy ever cracked open a book and learned anything, maybe he'd

Jacob Shapiro:

be one of the best statesmen of all time because he is got instincts,

Jacob Shapiro:

but he has no sense of strategy.

Jacob Shapiro:

He does not think about the future at all.

Jacob Shapiro:

Everything is, how does this feel?

Jacob Shapiro:

Now?

Jacob Shapiro:

What do I think about this now?

Jacob Shapiro:

Why is this happening now?

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm gonna tweet this.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm gonna think about this.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's all raw instincts and it's a source of some strength for him, but he has

Jacob Shapiro:

shown zero capacity to think long term.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I don't think you get on this list if you can't like, you know, open a

Jacob Shapiro:

strategy book, or if you can't sit through a briefing or if pop up pictures in the

Jacob Shapiro:

briefing, like, you know, yeah, go ahead.

Marko Papic:

So I, I know you have two more.

Marko Papic:

That's perfectly fine.

Marko Papic:

I just wanna piggyback on this and say, but that's why I say I'm not

Marko Papic:

sure he would be good with amid to your power, like Belgium or Malaysia.

Marko Papic:

My, my concern with him is that you get away with a lot of shit because you're

Marko Papic:

the president of United States America.

Marko Papic:

If you wanna tweet at somebody, you know, if you, if you want to tell

Marko Papic:

Iran and Israel, they don't know what the fuck they're doing, you

Marko Papic:

get to do that because you're the president of the United States America.

Marko Papic:

So when you say like, he sometimes this instinctual gut feeling to

Marko Papic:

act brashly works in his favor.

Marko Papic:

I hundred percent agree with you.

Marko Papic:

A lot of the Trump fans say that he is who he is and that's why he's effective.

Marko Papic:

I agree.

Marko Papic:

I don't disagree.

Marko Papic:

I just don't think it would work with any other country

Marko Papic:

other than the United States.

Marko Papic:

Maybe, maybe Russia, maybe India, maybe China.

Marko Papic:

But like, you know, if I'm sitting here trying to like, pick, trade,

Marko Papic:

my leader of South Korea, and by the way, do they need that?

Marko Papic:

You know, if I'm south, if I'm, if I'm the general manager of South Korea,

Marko Papic:

I trying to pick my next leader.

Marko Papic:

Like, I just, I can't pick Trump, no way.

Marko Papic:

He's gonna say something stupid and then I don't have 11 aircraft

Marko Papic:

carriers with which to say, what, what are you gonna do about it?

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

My leader called you fat.

Marko Papic:

You know, like, you can't, you just can't do that.

Marko Papic:

Go ahead.

Marko Papic:

Sorry.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah, I, I, I, I think the jury's still out on the,

Jacob Shapiro:

on the New South Korean leader.

Jacob Shapiro:

We can talk about that later.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, but yeah, I agree with that and I'll sort of get to that in a second.

Jacob Shapiro:

The third thing though, um, and I, I'm not saying, I hope, I'm

Jacob Shapiro:

not saying this pejoratively.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think this is just objectively true.

Jacob Shapiro:

I mean, we, we went, after Benjamin Nacho met, we went after Benjamin

Jacob Shapiro:

Netanyahu for this, Trump is all vanity and all narcissism, and he's

Jacob Shapiro:

using the office to enrich himself.

Jacob Shapiro:

Look at all these crypto projects that he's announcing.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like he fundamentally does not give a crap about anyone but

Jacob Shapiro:

himself and the Trump name.

Jacob Shapiro:

Well, wait a minute.

Jacob Shapiro:

Wait a minute.

Jacob Shapiro:

No.

Jacob Shapiro:

Wait a minute.

Jacob Shapiro:

Shake.

Jacob Shapiro:

Okay.

Jacob Shapiro:

You wanna defend him?

Jacob Shapiro:

Fine.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think, I think it's fairly clear that that's, that, that's true.

Jacob Shapiro:

Please.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'll just,

Marko Papic:

I will just throw back at you what you said to me

Marko Papic:

when I accused Lola being corrupt.

Marko Papic:

Aren't they all corrupt?

Marko Papic:

Jacob?

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh.

Jacob Shapiro:

They are all corrupt.

Jacob Shapiro:

But I didn't say that.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yes, they're all corrupt.

Jacob Shapiro:

But I didn't go at, I didn't go at him for being corrupt.

Jacob Shapiro:

I went at him for being vain and narcissistic.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think there is no part of him that actually cares about the nation.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think it's all Trump.

Jacob Shapiro:

Trump, Trump.

Jacob Shapiro:

He would, he would change it to the United States of Trump if he possibly could.

Jacob Shapiro:

Lula corrupt all these other different things.

Jacob Shapiro:

Cares deeply about Brazil and the future of Brazil, and has hitched

Jacob Shapiro:

his wagon and his changes to Brazil rising up and being this Trump.

Jacob Shapiro:

No way.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like all this stuff with the crypto coins and the Trump tokens, and I'm

Jacob Shapiro:

having the dinners and I'm not gonna put my assets in a blind trust like

Jacob Shapiro:

every single other president before me.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's all about enriching.

Jacob Shapiro:

I wanna build Trump Tower and Gaza and Trump Tower and Serbia.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, come on.

Jacob Shapiro:

But

Marko Papic:

can't you, well, first of all, Trump Tower in Serbia will

Marko Papic:

be amazing because I'm sure it's gonna be built on the burnt out,

Marko Papic:

uh, husk of the defense ministry.

Marko Papic:

So that needs to happen.

Marko Papic:

Please, Jared, don't back out of that.

Marko Papic:

Please build it.

Marko Papic:

But look, what I would say to you is, uh, on that point, I don't

Marko Papic:

know if it's exclusive, can you be narcissistic in vain and also

Marko Papic:

think at least that what you're doing is in interest of the United States America?

Jacob Shapiro:

You can, I don't think that's him.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think that was, I think that was LBJ.

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't think that's Trump, when I, what I'm saying is I really don't think

Jacob Shapiro:

he gives a shit about this country.

Marko Papic:

Hmm.

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't think he gives a shit about the community that he's in.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think he gives a shit about himself.

Marko Papic:

I think on some level.

Jacob Shapiro:

That to me just like disqualifies him from the list

Jacob Shapiro:

because everybody on this list, even the Netanyahu's, have some sense

Jacob Shapiro:

of their country's national future.

Jacob Shapiro:

And this goes back to the instinctual comment that I made.

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't think he thinks long term.

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't think he thinks strategically.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think he thinks about what's good for me now.

Jacob Shapiro:

And about using power in order to get those things.

Jacob Shapiro:

And if he could put those tools in service of a higher strategy, like he

Jacob Shapiro:

would be incredibly potent and competent.

Jacob Shapiro:

But he hasn't done that.

Jacob Shapiro:

And that gets to the last point, which you already sort of

Jacob Shapiro:

said, but I'll just repeat it.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's so easy to be the president of the United States compared to every

Jacob Shapiro:

other country that we've talked about.

Jacob Shapiro:

The United States is the most geopolitically blessed country in

Jacob Shapiro:

the history of human civilization.

Jacob Shapiro:

We've got the energy, we've got the people, we've got the geography.

Jacob Shapiro:

We're separated from enemies.

Jacob Shapiro:

We're not surrounded by anybody else.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, and he doesn't have to be there when the, when the

Jacob Shapiro:

wars are actually being fought.

Jacob Shapiro:

He's sitting on a military that spends, you know, 10 times or, uh, the, you

Jacob Shapiro:

know, the next 10 countries combine their military budgets aligned with the

Jacob Shapiro:

military budget of the United States.

Jacob Shapiro:

Right now it's super easy.

Jacob Shapiro:

And in his first term, he had some huge missteps.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like he basically had a Bay of Pigs light with Venezuela, uh, COVI.

Jacob Shapiro:

And the lockdowns happened under this dude's watch.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, don't forget that Republicans, like he was the one

Jacob Shapiro:

controlling the levers at the time.

Jacob Shapiro:

And he was the one who like, okay, yeah, he insulted Fauci a bunch.

Jacob Shapiro:

Did he do anything about it?

Marko Papic:

Well, I mean, uh, you know, I think COVID is both his best and worst.

Marko Papic:

I mean, operational war warp, warp speed.

Jacob Shapiro:

Warp speed is his best.

Jacob Shapiro:

But his response to COVID some of his worst, well, the way that he's bitching

Jacob Shapiro:

at the Federal Reserve, lower interest rates 300, like, I mean, you start

Jacob Shapiro:

going through the stuff like, it's just,

Marko Papic:

well, here's what I would say.

Marko Papic:

Le let, let me, let me try to like encapsulate what you're actually saying.

Marko Papic:

You know, I think that in a way, his instincts, his brashness,

Marko Papic:

his creativity, his bullying.

Marko Papic:

All of those things are why I think Trump's foreign policy is actually

Marko Papic:

much better than people think.

Marko Papic:

Like the way he handled the Israel Iran thing was, was really good.

Marko Papic:

I mean, you know, Israel wagged the dog, the tail being America, so he

Marko Papic:

had to kind of go along with it.

Marko Papic:

But he finished it, he finished it quickly.

Marko Papic:

Uh, and you've got the Iranian president on Tucker Carlson for 30

Marko Papic:

minutes, basically sucking up to Trump.

Marko Papic:

And I don't know if you watched it, please do.

Marko Papic:

Incredible, 30 minutes of television.

Marko Papic:

The president of Iran, after being just spanked by the United States of America,

Marko Papic:

is basically like glowingly sucking up to the United States President.

Marko Papic:

So, so here's what I wanna say.

Marko Papic:

I've always said this, I think World War III is far less likely with Donald

Marko Papic:

Trump as president than Kamala Harris.

Marko Papic:

That's just my objective.

Marko Papic:

You know, we can have a whole hour for why, but one of the reasons, you

Marko Papic:

know, one of the reasons, and, and by the way, that's like important, right?

Marko Papic:

Like, like I think, you know, and, and, and one of the reasons is

Marko Papic:

that, yeah, he's, uh, kind of an asshole in many ways, but, but in

Marko Papic:

a way that limits further conflict.

Marko Papic:

He's a moral, and that really works well with geopolitics and foreign policy when

Marko Papic:

you are the leader of the best country,

Jacob Shapiro:

when you're the leader of the most powerful country.

Marko Papic:

Exactly.

Marko Papic:

So you and I cannot give him credit for his instinct, his abilities.

Marko Papic:

Because he's the leader of America.

Marko Papic:

But we have to criticize his predecessors who did not do that, who were too

Marko Papic:

immoral and preachy and didn't know how to pivot out of difficult corners like

Marko Papic:

Israel, Iran tensions, which I think President Trump did not give anywhere near

Marko Papic:

enough credit for how he handled that.

Marko Papic:

That was masterful fucking masterclass of game theory.

Marko Papic:

And so that's where we can't give him credit because like, well, he's

Marko Papic:

the leader of the best country.

Marko Papic:

And it's like, yeah, but other leaders have done much worse.

Marko Papic:

But again, we can't put him on the list of top 30 because who

Marko Papic:

cares if he's predecessors?

Marko Papic:

Were morons.

Marko Papic:

So that's the first thing.

Marko Papic:

Whereas, whereas where I dis where I disagree with you is when you

Marko Papic:

say, being a president of the United States of America is very easy.

Marko Papic:

Yes.

Marko Papic:

And foreign, a policy side, all you need to do is not be a moron who wants

Marko Papic:

to triple down on normative issues.

Marko Papic:

Like, stop it.

Marko Papic:

It's not 1993.

Marko Papic:

No, you president of the United States of America.

Marko Papic:

It's a multipolar world.

Marko Papic:

You kind of have to be a, uh, asshole.

Marko Papic:

So that's true on the foreign policy, but on the domestic side, it is

Marko Papic:

actually difficult to be a president of the United States of America.

Marko Papic:

It's not maybe as difficult as you made Xi Jinping's job in

Marko Papic:

2012, great defense of Xi Jinping.

Marko Papic:

It's not as difficult perhaps as Brazilian politics, but it is really difficult.

Marko Papic:

And you have, you, you yourself, you've made a comparison that you

Marko Papic:

and I came from independent sides and we've done the same thing to

Marko Papic:

clients comparing Brazil and America.

Marko Papic:

It's complicated.

Marko Papic:

It's difficult.

Marko Papic:

Being a prime minister of Canada is far more easier.

Marko Papic:

Why?

Marko Papic:

Because Prime Minister of Canada is an elected king.

Marko Papic:

Prime minister of any parliamentary democracy is a king for four years.

Marko Papic:

You know, you can do whatever the fuck you want.

Marko Papic:

You've got parliamentary majority or a coalition you good in

Marko Papic:

the United States of America.

Marko Papic:

It's very complicated.

Marko Papic:

And that is where his brashness and his, uh, you know, short-termism as you put it.

Marko Papic:

But I would say just like being led by his own gut and instinct, it, it kind of

Marko Papic:

falls on its head because domestically it's not easy to be a president.

Marko Papic:

You need to be more nuanced.

Marko Papic:

You need to build coalitions.

Marko Papic:

And I think that quite often he sees a potential solution

Marko Papic:

and then he doesn't get to it.

Marko Papic:

Because in the domestic arena, it's not as easy as just saying, Israel and

Marko Papic:

Iran, dunno what the fuck they're doing.

Marko Papic:

You know, you can't just be the dad that shows up in the room,

Marko Papic:

says, who started the fight?

Marko Papic:

I don't care.

Marko Papic:

You smack both kids and go back downstairs to reading your newspaper.

Marko Papic:

Like you cannot actually just do that on the domestic front.

Marko Papic:

So that's where I would say, you know, the qualities Trump have has,

Marko Papic:

we can't give him credit for it on the geopolitical side, but on the

Marko Papic:

domestic side, they don't actually work.

Jacob Shapiro:

No, I don't think they work at all.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I think his thin skin, he's his own worst enemy when it comes to these

Jacob Shapiro:

things because he'll have an idea that might be good, but then somebody tweets

Jacob Shapiro:

something at him and he completely does a 180 because he doesn't like

Jacob Shapiro:

being insulted or something like that.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like the top the, the Trump always chickens out thing.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like there's a real aspect to that.

Jacob Shapiro:

I also, you know, you and I have talked about the one big beautiful bill a couple

Jacob Shapiro:

times now, you know, I'm slowly working my way through the thousand pages, but

Jacob Shapiro:

it looks like a massive own goal to me.

Jacob Shapiro:

The, the federal Medicaid cuts as a percentage of total Medicaid

Jacob Shapiro:

spending are nearly double what Reagan did in 81 and 82.

Jacob Shapiro:

You

Marko Papic:

still think

Jacob Shapiro:

it's

Marko Papic:

stimulative?

Jacob Shapiro:

I do still think it's stimulative.

Jacob Shapiro:

We can get to that in a second, but I'm just saying like, how does it

Jacob Shapiro:

make political sense to cut Medicaid?

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, like the percentage of Medicaid spending by almost 10%, almost double

Jacob Shapiro:

what Ronald, what Ronald Reagan did.

Jacob Shapiro:

All you're gonna do is close down rural hospitals and lead the people who

Jacob Shapiro:

voted for you most passionately to die.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, I don't see any other sort of outcome of that.

Jacob Shapiro:

Or look at like, you know, the cutting to, to snap and things like that.

Jacob Shapiro:

Giving ice a budget equivalent to Italy's military while you're also

Jacob Shapiro:

cutting these Medicaid things.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like what?

Jacob Shapiro:

Well,

Marko Papic:

that whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa.

Marko Papic:

That could be Georgia Maloney's fault.

Marko Papic:

You know what I mean?

Jacob Shapiro:

Well, I'm I'm just saying it's, it's also roughly

Jacob Shapiro:

the budget that Israel has.

Jacob Shapiro:

So Israel, Israel did pretty good.

Marko Papic:

Look, the, the one big beautiful bill, let's

Marko Papic:

just be very clear here.

Marko Papic:

If Kamala Harris had gotten elected as president, she would've paid, she

Marko Papic:

would've had to pass something as well.

Marko Papic:

Sure.

Marko Papic:

There is absolutely, there's no, there's no way that we

Marko Papic:

would've let 2017 tax cut expire.

Marko Papic:

That's just a fact.

Marko Papic:

And so, you know, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, they would've

Marko Papic:

both had to put all sorts of bells and whistles to get it passed.

Marko Papic:

And it is what it is.

Marko Papic:

But, uh, but yeah, I mean, I, I, I don't disagree you on, but No, it's, it's,

Jacob Shapiro:

it's, it's just, it's like the policy errors.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, so you're gonna cut.

Jacob Shapiro:

And, and I don't mean this, like, I, I hope listeners are not

Jacob Shapiro:

thinking that I've been overtaken by Trump derangement system.

Jacob Shapiro:

This is actually, like, literally, I don't understand what the

Jacob Shapiro:

political logic of this is.

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't understand how it makes political sense to cut something like Medicaid, but

Jacob Shapiro:

then to do like Trump accounts, you're gonna give a thousand dollars to every

Jacob Shapiro:

kid that's born in 2025 and on and beyond.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think you should retroactive that to 2022 when my first daughter was born.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, and, and you're gonna, you're gonna drive immigration down.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, I don't know if you've seen the migration numbers at the border.

Jacob Shapiro:

Oh yeah, yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

They tanked their record lows, which on the one hand, good

Jacob Shapiro:

job dealing with the crisis.

Jacob Shapiro:

On the other hand, we also need immigration in the country

Jacob Shapiro:

from a growth perspective.

Jacob Shapiro:

So if immigration is going to zero 'cause you've cracked down too hard,

Jacob Shapiro:

like that's gonna show up in growth.

Jacob Shapiro:

Well, this is where.

Marko Papic:

This word, I just

Jacob Shapiro:

like, I'm having trouble making all these things make sense.

Jacob Shapiro:

And like if I'm trying to evaluate him as a domestic political leader Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm looking at it and I'm like, I don't, and maybe, maybe he's a genius.

Jacob Shapiro:

Maybe in two years I'll be here being like, I'm sorry, I didn't

Jacob Shapiro:

see the genius, but I see it.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm like, this is messed up.

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't understand like, politically, how this is good for you for the

Jacob Shapiro:

United States, for the Republicans.

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't get it.

Marko Papic:

You know?

Marko Papic:

Um, where I will defend him is that I think his gut usually leads him into the

Marko Papic:

right decision in the long term because constraints move him into that move.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

But, you know, so for example, U-S-M-C-A is a great free trade deal.

Marko Papic:

Like he started off negotiations, braley with some idiotic ideas.

Marko Papic:

None of that got implemented.

Marko Papic:

The, the deal that got made was awesome.

Marko Papic:

Like Hillary Clinton would've loved to make a deal like that, right?

Marko Papic:

So Donald Trump got done something done that, if you remember, of the C

Marko Papic:

ffr or if you're an economist at the IMF, you're like, wow, I, I like that.

Marko Papic:

That was awesome.

Marko Papic:

But he could have just gone to it maybe earlier had he just like, as you said,

Marko Papic:

read a strategy piece, you know, or like, you know, listen to so-called

Marko Papic:

experts, quote unquote, and I shit on experts all the time, especially

Marko Papic:

American Learn elites, like, yeah, sure many of them are morons, but like,

Marko Papic:

some of this stuff is pretty normal.

Marko Papic:

So it's pretty obvious.

Marko Papic:

Like, you don't, you don't need to be like.

Marko Papic:

Member of some elitist cabal to figure out how to get a deal with Mexico and Canada.

Marko Papic:

So what I would say to you is like, I, I think one of the problems is

Marko Papic:

that, that, you know, his pension for kind of rediscovering sliced bread,

Marko Papic:

right?

Marko Papic:

So, so like, so on one hand I think, I think people who

Marko Papic:

criticize him, who do have Trump derangement syndrome just hate him.

Marko Papic:

And then when he does something, when he does something good, they attack it.

Marko Papic:

For example, I think it's absolutely insane that you've got a bunch

Marko Papic:

of liberals who would not have wanted to attack Iran now saying,

Marko Papic:

well, you didn't finish the job.

Marko Papic:

It's like, bro, what do you want?

Marko Papic:

You want him to go into a forever war and find more uranium to bomb?

Marko Papic:

Like what are you talking about?

Marko Papic:

You know, relax.

Marko Papic:

That was perfectly well executed attack on nuclear facilities and it's sufficient.

Marko Papic:

Shut up.

Marko Papic:

So on one hand there's that criticism that everything he does is wrong, but on

Marko Papic:

the other hand, the criticism is really that the endpoint, the, the concluded

Marko Papic:

negotiations, the U-S-M-C-A, the phase one, these trade deals we're gonna get.

Marko Papic:

Like, did it really require the whole entire like volatility of policy

Marko Papic:

just so that you, Mr. President can figure out that what was obvious on

Marko Papic:

day one is obvious on day 300, right?

Marko Papic:

So that's where I would say that some of that volatility is just unnecessary.

Marko Papic:

And, and that's where the domestic politics gets really messy.

Marko Papic:

Uh, the other issue is immigration.

Marko Papic:

I mean, like we did a whole episode, Jacob on immigration.

Marko Papic:

And, and my conclusion of that was like, look, let's be very clear, Donald, like

Marko Papic:

fans of Donald Trump, have to explain why was it that he s cuddled in immigration

Marko Papic:

deal, the Republicans and the Joe Biden administration painstakingly produced.

Marko Papic:

He comes in and says, please don't pass this deal to his Republican

Marko Papic:

friends so that he can use it as an election, you know, issue.

Marko Papic:

This happened in early 2024.

Marko Papic:

Look it up.

Marko Papic:

Donald Trump, right?

Marko Papic:

Says to senators, uh, Republican senators don't pass this bill.

Marko Papic:

And then now we've got the situation where he is the president.

Marko Papic:

He's got full control of Congress.

Marko Papic:

I, okay, fine.

Marko Papic:

You know what?

Marko Papic:

You wanted to win the election.

Marko Papic:

I, I can abide by that.

Marko Papic:

God bless you.

Marko Papic:

You know, you delayed immigration reform by 18 months.

Marko Papic:

Who cares?

Marko Papic:

You're all well done.

Marko Papic:

But now that you are a president, like you have control of Congress, why

Marko Papic:

not pass your own immigration reform?

Marko Papic:

Why not do it?

Marko Papic:

You know what?

Marko Papic:

You can't find eight democratic senators.

Marko Papic:

Just, I don't know, pay them with some pork or basically give them some

Marko Papic:

work visa programs for their state.

Marko Papic:

I don't know, but it seems really interest, like that's,

Marko Papic:

that seems like an own goal.

Marko Papic:

Instead, there's this added pressure domestically, you know, like talking

Marko Papic:

about, uh, arresting the mayor of a city because they're doing this

Marko Papic:

or that, you know, there's street battles between ice and so on.

Marko Papic:

Like, although that's obviously overstated by the media, but that's

Marko Papic:

a good example of that domestic policy that that is unnecessarily

Marko Papic:

aggressive and, uh, as circumstantial.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

And, and just to say like, I don't throw the baby out with the bath water.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like I know I, I, I got a little hot there, but I, I am saying like,

Jacob Shapiro:

I do think he probably belongs at the bottom edge of my list.

Jacob Shapiro:

So he probably belongs, like in the, in the low thirties or maybe

Jacob Shapiro:

he should have even cracked my list.

Jacob Shapiro:

And he has done things like, I'm not one of these people who can't notice

Jacob Shapiro:

when he does things that are good.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like operation warp speed was absolutely incredible.

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't think he gets near enough credit for what he did with Operation

Marko Papic:

Speed.

Marko Papic:

No, he gets no credit.

Jacob Shapiro:

He gets no credit for it.

Jacob Shapiro:

No credit in the one, in the one big beautiful bill.

Jacob Shapiro:

This idea that you're gonna give a thousand dollars to every kid that is

Jacob Shapiro:

born between now and 2028 to have a nest egg so that they have, you know, that's

Jacob Shapiro:

provided by the federal government.

Jacob Shapiro:

Sounds great.

Jacob Shapiro:

We should have been doing this a long time ago.

Jacob Shapiro:

That's something the Dems have been talking about for years, and he's

Jacob Shapiro:

the one that actually got it done.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, cool.

Jacob Shapiro:

There's some stuff in this bill that I'm like right on.

Jacob Shapiro:

But it's, yeah, but come on,

Marko Papic:

come on.

Marko Papic:

We all know, we all know $800 of that thousand is going in like

Marko Papic:

his crypto plays though, right?

Marko Papic:

So like, come on.

Marko Papic:

Well,

Jacob Shapiro:

you know, that, that goes back to my other point, but I'm

Jacob Shapiro:

just saying like, he has these, he has these like things that make you,

Jacob Shapiro:

but then when you put together the sum total, I think you're exactly right.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, could you have gotten the U-S-M-C-A with all this nonsense?

Jacob Shapiro:

Could you have gotten better trade deals without ruining the relationship

Jacob Shapiro:

with Japan and South Korea, which he's in the middle of doing.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like one of, I think one of the only real foreign policy successes of the Biden

Jacob Shapiro:

administration was really strengthening the trilateral between Japan, South

Jacob Shapiro:

Korea, the United States that's gone now.

Jacob Shapiro:

He's just like jettisoned them and turned Japan and South Korea along with the

Jacob Shapiro:

Europeans against the United States, but for generations to come because virus

Jacob Shapiro:

treating was that really necessary.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like I.

Marko Papic:

Look what I would say, what I would say about this is, uh,

Marko Papic:

you know, it's what I feared the most is that there are about five things

Marko Papic:

that President Trump has done that are maybe like top 20 things that any

Marko Papic:

president has done in the last 150 years.

Marko Papic:

Like, that's how transformative he can be on occasion.

Marko Papic:

And foreign policy is, is one of them.

Marko Papic:

But I fear that because of the divisiveness and the rhetoric, the next

Marko Papic:

president of the United States of America who's a Democrat, will abandon those,

Marko Papic:

even if they're good for America, just purely out of Trump derangement syndrome.

Marko Papic:

And you saw that with the Biden administration as well.

Marko Papic:

They kept some things like, you know, the China focus, uh, but on the other fronts,

Marko Papic:

they categorically abandoned many of the things that Trump did that were not

Marko Papic:

completely insane or that were actually very good, just like Trump abandoned

Marko Papic:

things that Obama did just 'cause they were Obamas, you know, and that's petty.

Marko Papic:

But that's what happens when you're divisive and when you, um, induce

Marko Papic:

derangement syndrome in people.

Marko Papic:

And you can blame liberals for having Trump derangement syndrome

Marko Papic:

if you're conservative, fine.

Marko Papic:

But it's also being induced by, uh, almost like this mean trolling.

Marko Papic:

And that's, you know, I think Trump defenders would say, well,

Marko Papic:

you need to have a character like that to be truly revolutionary.

Marko Papic:

And I'm not sure that's the case.

Marko Papic:

I think there's leaders on our list who are revolutionary

Marko Papic:

and they're not divisive.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

And they're in the top five and they're in the top five of our list, by the way.

Marko Papic:

And that's why they're there.

Jacob Shapiro:

It was Shelby Foote who said The Great American

Jacob Shapiro:

art is is compromised and there's none of that in him.

Jacob Shapiro:

I guess the last thought I'll just say here, and, and this goes back

Jacob Shapiro:

to my questions about the one big beautiful bill and specifically the

Jacob Shapiro:

Medicaid cuts and things like that.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, I wonder when we're looking back if, um, you know, sometimes I,

Jacob Shapiro:

I compare Trump to, is he Huey Long?

Jacob Shapiro:

Is he LBJ?

Jacob Shapiro:

But recently I've been thinking maybe he's Coolidge or Hoover, like maybe he's

Jacob Shapiro:

just late stage in an economic cycle governing a country where inequality

Jacob Shapiro:

is increasing and he's sort of doing the things that the, the wealthy

Jacob Shapiro:

class wants and things like that.

Jacob Shapiro:

But like when you start cutting Medicaid by this much and you start cutting these

Jacob Shapiro:

entitlement benefits by this much, even if people think that they want that, once

Jacob Shapiro:

they start experiencing that, they're probably gonna turn on the system and

Jacob Shapiro:

they're probably gonna say, okay, well the system is not working for me anymore.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I think this, I think you see this in that Steve Bann and an A OC are basically

Jacob Shapiro:

both saying you need to raise taxes.

Jacob Shapiro:

So the fringes of both parties are starting to say,

Jacob Shapiro:

Hey guys, the party is up.

Jacob Shapiro:

Let's go.

Jacob Shapiro:

You know, there's Elon Musk out there with the third party as well.

Jacob Shapiro:

So, I mean, we talked about legacy for some of these leaders.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think that's another problem for Trump.

Jacob Shapiro:

Now, maybe I'm wrong about the impact of some of the things that he's pushing

Jacob Shapiro:

through, but some of the things that he's pushed through domestically to

Jacob Shapiro:

me seem like unforced errors and seems to me like they're gonna set up both

Jacob Shapiro:

the Republican party and his legacy.

Jacob Shapiro:

For, for not, not having historians treat them so kindly, but, but maybe

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm wrong, but yeah, I don't know.

Jacob Shapiro:

That's another,

Marko Papic:

I mean, it would be, yeah, it would be very fitting if

Marko Papic:

Donald Trump brought us a OC in 2028.

Marko Papic:

So there you go.

Marko Papic:

Uh,

Jacob Shapiro:

alright, well I don't think he's gonna do that, but, uh,

Marko Papic:

alright, well listen, uh, this is over two hours now.

Marko Papic:

I think that, uh, we should definitely put a stop, uh, on stop.

Marko Papic:

Okay.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

Um, alright, cool.

Marko Papic:

Well that's, that's, uh, the 2020.

Marko Papic:

Wait, wait, wait.

Marko Papic:

We,

Jacob Shapiro:

we, we have to answer one more question, Marco.

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause I said I, I think Trump probably belongs in my low thirties

Jacob Shapiro:

or maybe even top twenties.

Jacob Shapiro:

Do you have him anywhere close?

Jacob Shapiro:

Like where was he on your list before you close it out?

Marko Papic:

Yeah, I think he stopped 50,

Jacob Shapiro:

top 50.

Marko Papic:

I mean, he's not, he's like, again, like anyone who complains

Marko Papic:

about their favorite leader being 35th, remember there's like a hundred,

Marko Papic:

190 plus countries in the world.

Marko Papic:

So, yeah, I don't think he's in the, the second half of countries on the planet.

Marko Papic:

Um, so yeah, he belongs probably somewhere in the top 50.

Marko Papic:

last word I'm gonna say is we should do this every year.

Marko Papic:

We should publish this, um, as a joint list.

Marko Papic:

The, the top 44 leaders, well, we'll call it top 30 and we'll see how many make

Marko Papic:

it, but uh, this is our 2025 edition.

Marko Papic:

So Mexico, you won.

Marko Papic:

Well done Italy, you came in second place.

Marko Papic:

Well done as well.

Marko Papic:

Uh, yeah, like 12 months from now we'll see where we are and we'll see

Marko Papic:

whi which were our biggest misses.

Marko Papic:

So that I think, uh, I'm really looking forward to that.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah, it's gonna be fun.

Jacob Shapiro:

All right.

Jacob Shapiro:

Cheers, dude.

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