Regulation & Policy

• Federal clampdown on intoxicating hemp cannabinoids sets up a major 2026 reset; FDA guidance due within 90 days.
• California launches a 2026 craft distillery DTC pilot, offering a key release valve for oversupply.
• Airports, airlines, and municipalities tighten alcohol service norms; litigation highlights labeling and pricing scrutiny.

Market Performance

• U.S. spirits decelerate; Diageo expects ~–6% U.S. decline.
• Beer outlook worsens globally; craft continues to contract.
• Wine accelerates toward long-needed supply correction after a two-decade-low crush.
• Weekly U.S. scans: total bev alc down 4.5% YoY; non-alc beer +18%.

Consumer Behavior

• Caution dominates: essentials up, discretionary units down.
• On-premise responds to value—Texas Roadhouse, Chili’s outperform through pricing and operations.
• Gallup shows only 54% of adults drink; moderation and wellness shifts continue.

Retail, Digital & Distribution

• Private label accelerates: projected $280B in store-brand sales; Aldi expansion and Kirkland scrutiny in spotlight.
• Provi surpasses $5B GMV, reducing admin time for reps and boosting compliance for chains.
• Gopuff raises $250M and returns to growth mode.

Corporate Moves & Portfolio Strategy

• ABI exploring up to $700M acquisition of BeatBox; “beyond beer” momentum builds.
• Tilray beverage +19% FY25; consolidation continues across beer and spirits.
• Non-alc brands like Liquid Death gain route-to-market muscle and cold-box share.

Structural Risks

• Spirits exports drop sharply; inventories at multi-decade highs.
• Craft distillery count down 25% YoY; closures and liquidations increasing.
• Health-risk messaging gaining traction, raising long-term regulatory questions.