The data doesn't lie, and in Q1 2026, it's telling a story the freight industry hasn't seen in years.

In this special episode of Supply Chain Now, Scott W. Luton and Karin Bursa welcome Bobby Holland, Director of Freight Business Analytics at U.S. Bank, and Bob Costello, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President at the American Trucking Associations, for a deep dive into the latest U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index for Q1 2026.

The episode unpacks seven critical takeaways from the quarter, including a historic 12.9% spike in freight spending, a rare supply-side recovery driven by tightening capacity and surging fuel costs, and regional breakdowns across the West, Southwest, Midwest, Northeast, and Southeast, with stops on tariff impacts, cross-border trade with Canada and Mexico, and what a $7.22-per-gallon diesel price in California means for the broader economy.

Together, they explore why this recovery is unlike anything we've seen since the pandemic boom, what the Goldman Sachs recession outlook gets right (and wrong), and how supply chain leaders can use real, verified freight data, not feelings, to make smarter decisions in an unpredictable 2026.

Jump into the conversation:

(00:00) Intro

(03:29) Introducing the dynamic duo: Bobby Holland & Bob Costello

(06:23) Bobby's headline summary

(09:47) How industry leaders use the Freight Payment Index

(10:01) National-level results: spending jumps 12.9%

(10:54) A rare supply-side recovery

(13:10) West region: highest shipment levels since 2023

(17:20) Southwest region: 10th straight quarter of declines

(21:40) Midwest region: strongest quarter since Q1 2018

(26:05) Winter storms break the streak

(28:11) Canada & Mexico trade: tariff impact on cross-border freight

(33:20) Southeast region: the only region posting declines

(41:32) Goldman Sachs vs. economic reality

(44:28) Freight market forecast: what's ahead in 2026

Additional Links & Resources:

• Connect with Bob Costello: https://www.linkedin.com/in/robert-costello-444bb670/
• Connect with Bobby Holland: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bobby-holland-4a9355/
• Connect with Karin Bursa: https://www.linkedin.com/in/karinbursa/
• Learn more about American Trucking Associations: https://www.trucking.org/
• Learn more about U.S. Bank: https://www.usbank.com/index.html
• Learn more about our hosts: https://supplychainnow.com/about
• Learn more about Supply Chain Now: https://supplychainnow.com
• Watch and listen to more Supply Chain Now episodes here: https://supplychainnow.com/program/supply-chain-now
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This episode was hosted by Scott Luton and Karin BUrsa and produced by Trisha Cordes, Joshua Miranda, and Amanda Luton. For additional information, please visit our dedicated show page at: https://supplychainnow.com/analysis-q1-2026-us-bank-freight-payment-index-1588