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Policy Analysis: Ohio Demographic and Economic Trends
Episode 2210th October 2023 • Leadership Forum: The Podcast • John Glenn College of Public Affairs, The Ohio State University
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The Leadership Podcast welcomes Alison Goebel, executive director of the Greater Ohio Policy Center, for a policy analysis of demographic and economic trends reflecting high growth in the Columbus area while much of the state shows legacy areas with aging populations, marginal population change and slow income growth. Goebel outlines ways the state as a whole could be much stronger with differentiated and context-sensitive policymaking. Strategies, she says, include creating vibrant downtowns, preserving the housing stock and supporting the residents of legacy places in creating businesses and job opportunities. State policies could assist with matching funds for federal grants, comprehensive planning services and easier processes to create the parity that then helps all communities compete in the future. 

Transcripts

Trevor Brown 0:04

welcome to the podcast Leadership Forum conversation with leaders who serve the public good. My name is Trevor Brown, and I'm privileged to serve as the dean of the John Glenn College of Public Affairs at The Ohio State University, where we aspire to fulfill a simple phrase that Senator John Glenn used to describe what we do, inspire citizenship and develop leadership. I also have the honor of serving as the host of this conversation series. So welcome to a thoughtful and reflective conversation about leadership and public service. I'm joined today by Alison Goebel, PhD, she's Executive Director of the Greater Ohio Policy Center. GOPC, purpose of GOPC is to improve the communities of Ohio through smart growth and research. To that end, this conversation is going to be a little different than some of our others where we really focus on leadership, and the leadership strategies of the of the person I'm talking to. Today, we're going to have more of an analytical conversation, more of a policy analysis conversation. And to that end, GOPC has just come out with a new report, Ohio plus Columbus report that is about many of Ohio's positive economic indicators, increasing population increasing household size, household income and household value. But they are skewed by growth in central Ohio. When you exclude the Columbus MSA metropolitan area from the data, the same measures are decreasing everywhere else in the state. So Ohio's growth driven economic development strategy is appropriate, perhaps we could say for Central Ohio, but misses that there also needs to be an economic and vibrant area outside of Central Ohio. And GOPC, does a lot of work on strengthening those legacy communities by leveraging their existing assets. So today, Alison and I are going to talk about the report a little bit more more more broadly, about how GOPC does work to support all the cities and communities of Ohio. So Alison, thanks for joining me today to talk about healthy growth across the state of Ohio.

Alison Goebel 2:19

Thanks Trevor, Thanks for the invitation today.

Trevor Brown 2:23

So let's let's start by unpacking what I just mentioned in that introduction, what are the conventional measures of growth?

Alison Goebel 2:34

Yeah, so conventional measures of growth, I think most people are going to look at population gains, or increases in household income or new housing starts, new business starts. And we look at those things too. But we're also looking at how development patterns physical development patterns are playing out across the state. And so when we talk about smart growth, though, that sort of sensitivity to spatial use, the use of space is something that we're also adding in our analysis.

Trevor Brown 3:05

So tell us a little bit more about that use of space, give give us some examples of what that might mean, for any town here in Ohio?

Alison Goebel 3:15

Yeah, so we're asking, always, is this new development financially sustainable in the long term? Will the community have enough population that will produce the right and sufficient tax base to continue paying for the infrastructure that, you know, takes 30 years to pay off the bond for there's also an environmental element to this right isn't an environmentally responsible sort of investment, physical investment. And so we are basically, we recreated GOPC was created 15-20 years ago to really heighten awareness around urban sprawl and what unchecked sprawl could do long term to the state's economic potential. And we continue to fulfill sort of that initial vision for our organization today, even though, you know, a lot has changed in the last 20 years.

Trevor Brown 4:12

So you focus on sustainable growth and revitalization of some of the areas that have perhaps been been left behind. I gave some of the headlines of the report. Just in terms of the the measures we use, what alternatives to those conventional measures might we we look at or is it simply that we need to disaggregate from the state's measures of population growth, income, household value, etc. And look across each of the communities Ohio, how do you think about painting that accurate picture of sustainable growth in Ohio?

Alison Goebel 4:52

Yeah, so we think about Ohio. I think in the way that intuitively, most Ohioans are thinking about right we have central Ohio is this area of high growth, a lot of new population, a lot of increase in household income a lot of new businesses. And then we think about sort of the quote unquote everyone else, as our legacy cities and communities and when I say legacy city, I'm talking about places that have lost population and industry and are reinventing themselves. And that's basically everywhere else except Central Ohio, and maybe southwest Ohio, or on the Cincinnati Metro. The impolite term for legacy cities might be Rust Belt, right? So we're thinking about our Rust Belt communities, of which there's a ton of in the state. And we think there is a lot of value and potential in these places, despite not showing the sort of growth that the conventional measures might, you know, reward or applaud as being positive. What we say is that in these no and low growth places, there's a lot of potential, but we need to make sure that we are tapping into that. And that growth policies, which has often been the sort of the default, in the state of Ohio, don't always necessarily capture those opportunities, are not always grabbing the potential there. And so we're thinking about, like, how do you serve a state that has such different trajectories, Central Ohio, kind of our legacy communities of which there are many. And it's tricky, but we think that the state as a whole is much stronger if we can be a little more differentiated and context sensitive in our policymaking in the way that we move forward and supporting these places across the board.

Trevor Brown 6:38

Great. I want to absolutely get to the the strategies for moving forward. But I want to do a little bit of diagnostic work first. So give us a little bit in perhaps the report goes into this. So you could point to the report and say you can read more there. But hopefully you can give a headline version. What what's your explanation of the reports explanation for why Central Ohio is growing? And some of these legacy cities? You mentioned the rust belt, but like what do you see as the causal drivers for why they are not growing in the same way that central Ohio is?

Alison Goebel 7:13

Yeah, the report doesn't get into that. You could read my I mean, like we don't have time for a long history of the industry of industry in innovation and natural resources in the United States and how Ohio was sort of at the forefront of that for a hundred years, right. But what I will say is that Ohioans were really good at manufacturing, the materials and goods that our country and the world needed in the 20th century. So as a result, we have all these places that were making important needed things. And you know, deindustrialization, and capital flows. I mean, you know, you can go to grad school and find out why all that happened. Right.

Trevor Brown 7:52

But your great summary, by the way, okay, good. Good, good.

Alison Goebel 7:56

Yeah, it's, like, you know, 15 years since I've been thinking about this, but the so anyway, so as a result of those changes, we are seeing, you know, our legacy places are, why they are for these kind of complex, and it's multifaceted reasons, Central Ohio is very, very specific reason for that is that it just didn't have the same sort of concentration of manufacturing that other places did, and that there's been a real growth in the financial services and healthcare and education services in the last 30 years, whereas that's not been the case elsewhere. So yeah, anyway, so that's sort of the like, long picture of why Ohio is where it is.

Trevor Brown 8:38

So then, you know, knowing that and that's great, great summary. You said a moment ago, the sort of traditional strategic approach is growth that's oriented towards Central Ohio, and that doesn't necessarily fit the circumstances of these other communities. So what is that typical approach to promote growth in the way that, you know, Governor Dewine, perhaps can celebrate for the state as a whole? And then so start with telling us, what does that look like? And then what would be the alternatives that you'd recommend for these these legacy cities?

Alison Goebel 9:16

Yeah, that's a great question. We so sort of the status quo in the state is always sort of agnostic about location, right. And as a result, a lot of development a lot of new major corporations are landing, you know, company facilities in central Ohio. And that's fine. And you know, like we the population is growing, that that's going to be able to support that. If we try to build a peloton factory in Northwest Ohio, in the middle of Williams County or wherever, like, we're not so sure that there's going to be long term the tax base that will pay for that. Right. And so we instead really are encouraging both at the local level. So we first and foremost, we're a state advocacy organization, but, and a nonprofit. But we also do a lot of consulting. That's mission consistent to local communities. Because one we have the expertise, two, we need to keep on our lights, and we need to diversify our income right with the consulting income. So we are always encouraging at the local level, and then also at the state to support locals. How do we make our places our legacy places, vibrant places of choice, as they are today, right without that kind of additional, unsustainable growth. And so for us that's really about creating vibrant downtowns. It's about preserving the housing stock that these places have filling in the missing teeth. A lot of these places have blighted property that's been demolished, but no new homes have been built there. And really trying to support the residents who have remained in these places or returned and helping them create the businesses and the job opportunities, right, which will create a local regional economy a very vibrant, sustainable place. But may does not sort of be operating at the same scale as an Intel, right, or the Honda battery factory is down in southern southwest Ohio. So for us, this is about scale, but also being really cognizant about what our land use and resource use looks like in the future because or today, and if we are encumbering future generations with the cost of that maintenance or expansion.

Trevor Brown:

So in terms of the sort of policy cocktail that's necessary to pursue that approach, is this is this really a locally driven strategy? You said, you're a state advocacy body, so presumably their state, there are state actions that need to occur? Maybe paint that landscape a little bit? So what what can the state do to help effectuate what you're describing? And what do the communities themselves need to do?

Alison Goebel:

Yeah, I'm so glad you asked. We're in the we've been thinking about this for a long time. But we are trying to really hone in on this. So this is a work in progress. One I'm going to talk about, but a lot of our recommendations come from the feedback that we are getting from local leaders. So right now at the state, for example, a lot of state and almost all federal programs require a quote unquote, local match, right? The locals have to put in 20% of the total project cost and the 80% will come from elsewhere. Well, for legacy cities, that's really hard, like they do not have cash laying around, some of them are in fiscal watch, right. So the state could pay could cover that local match requirement, especially for federal grants. And this is happening in other states, right? If you are in a via, if you are in a growth place that's prosperous, like Central Ohio, maybe you have to come up with your own local match. But it's in the state's best interest to make sure that local communities no matter where you are, and sort of the growth pattern trajectory that you're on, that there's quality services in place, right, to ensure that those future opportunities aren't closed off. And so the state could, for example, do local match. The state could also really help communities figure out what their future is by paying for planning services, right. So I think every community sort well, not every a lot of communities realize like their future is not what their past was, but they're not quite sure what the future is going to be or how to get there, right. Having a comprehensive plan, having a master plan, having a development plan, whatever you want to call it, like we need to have a roadmap, we have to have a Northstar and a roadmap for our communities. It's really expensive to pay for that kind of planning. But once it's done, it pays itself back tenfold. Right. And so if the state were to support that type of planning work at the local level, and then also reward communities that have done that, by fast tracking them through applications, processes for state programs, for example, we think that would create the parity that then helps all communities sort of compete in the future against each other, but also, again, is just ensuring that those places that feel left behind today don't get farther and farther back from the pack.

Trevor Brown:

So you mentioned competition, that that raises division. And now I want to transition a little bit to talk both about the politics of this work, and then and then how you all as an advocacy organization, position yourself in that that political landscape. So one way is I'm listening to you talk and having looked at the report is there's a cleavage between central Ohio and everybody else. Another way to look at this is urban rural, Legacy cities immediately connotes an urban area. And then there's a lot of urban areas and or sorry, a lot of rural areas that may not be included in that and then in our current highly politicized environment that's RB, right? Red blue. How? How do you all prevent that as you identify differences, you identify places that are moving ahead and those that are falling behind as an advocacy organization, how do you try to frame this? So we don't exacerbate those divisions, but acknowledge that they those they exist?

Alison Goebel:

Yeah, that's a good question. I mean, we don't think of our issues as being just urban, the things that we focus on, we don't think of as just being urban issues. For example, one thing that we focus a lot on our brownfields environmentally contaminated sites, usually like old factories. And because of the history of the state, almost every community or every county, we know every county has a Brownfield. Many of them have many brownfields, right. And so like we can talk about what are some shared or universal concerns that are being experienced across the state. Another which I mentioned the vacant properties, because of the population loss and most of the state and even in kind of our legacy neighborhoods in our growing region in our growing cities like Columbus, there has been a lot of blight in the last 15 years. There's been a lot of demolition, right? We can talk about that as a shared experience that all Ohioans are struggling with, except maybe those in the ritziest suburbs, right. But basically, everywhere else is, you know, this is a shared experience. And that helps us elevate the conversation out of like, this is just a Cleveland issue, or Toledo issue, or Mansfield issue, and really kind of helps us talk about like, what is what are the shared, you know, shared across the state concerns, but then also, what are the benefits if we all benefit? You know, if there's a solution that benefits everyone, and that has worked, for the most part?

Trevor Brown:

Well, that's what that was gonna be my next question has it worked, right. I mean, I think a lot of us in a lot of different arenas are looking for those and love your term shared experiences, rather than highlighting our differences and pitting one side against the other. We're looking for those opportunities to say, you know, rising tide is gonna lift all boats here. So it's working. Tell me, tell me Give me some some some evidence that it's working and maybe elaborate a little bit on why you think it's working?

Alison Goebel:

Yeah, um, well, so I mean, I'll just say, as I sort of mentioned a minute ago, one of the things that we've been working on for a long time is securing state grant dollars for brownfields cleanup, because we feel like that can unlock a lot of other opportunities. And we have successfully secured in the last two years, $700 million in grants for local communities. And, you know, that's a very clear win for us, for my board for stakeholders that we helped shepherd that program through, and it requires, it required the entire General Assembly to sign off on it, you know, and the governor, and now is requiring Department of Development, you know, the State agency to implement it. So we feel like, you know, we can focus on common things. Now, the way we talk about it is different, depending on who we're talking about, right. So are more rural legislators, we might focus on the economic development benefits of a cleanup brownfield and how it could be a site for reshoring of manufacturing jobs. And you know, jobs are a concern for that district. And so, you know, we can make the connection there. For a progressive Democrat, we might focus on the environmental justice benefits of remediation. So like, you know, you have to be cognizant of what the hook is. But as advocates, we know what the goal is. And so it's really about sort of the story we tell the hook. I mean, not like I'm not making up stories, but you know, these things are multifaceted issues.

Trevor Brown:

How you frame the issue for different audiences, but the core of the story remains the same, the shared experience, it's right.

Alison Goebel:

Yeah. And the shared solution, right. And that's the thing like we are really focused on what are solutions so that everyone, you know, everyone benefits and moves forward? And I think so we highlight the shared experience, but then also, what is the common solution? And that has been working to, you know, as much as it works in our current political environment.

Trevor Brown:

I'm glad to hear there's some success. And to be fair, I mean, I do think there's a lot made in the media about the absence of collaboration across the aisle, etc. There's a lot more going on there that's positive and in most state legislatures and at the national arena, too. But I would imagine that's in part because adept folks like you have figured out how to navigate in that space and frame issues differently for for different audiences. You've answered my next question with an example but I just want to sort of step back and, and as an advocacy organization So, how do you measure success? How do you know what the end of a day a week? A quarter? Hey, we did a good job? What? What are your sort of standard measures of of success?

Alison Goebel:

Yeah, it's a really good question. Um, because yeah, it's a good question. I'm just laughing because our philanthropic investment, you know, philanthropy that we get grants from will also ask this and it's like, well, we don't, we don't build homes. We don't serve meals, right? Like, we don't have these quantitative metrics or product to sell, right? No, we don't. Because policy changes incremental, right. And advances towards success, like will feel very, you know, if you look at on paper, you're like, no big deal. But we know as staff, it's taken months to move or something. But we, you know, our vision is a revitalized Ohio, that's our organization's vision. And we have a strategic plan, the board hold staff accountable to the strategic plan. And we have metrics there now, like, the way that we measure incrementally might say, the to look at, well, how far did a proposal go to get through one chamber at the Statehouse to get through both chambers? Like did we get key allies? Like, the Ohio Realtors Association or, you know, other like the Farm Bureau? Did we get these folks on board? Right? Those are incremental measurements. There's also, you know, very clear ones, right? Like if we can get a policy passed or a program established, like, that's when we break out the champagne and have a catered lunch, right, like, you know, there are very clear there are some there are clear metrics, it's not all just like, you know, nebulous. But there's so much work that needs to precede the champagne launch, you know what I mean, and so, but it is hard. And so having a really understanding a board who's plugged into these issues and sort of understands, like what the rhythm is at the Statehouse has been really helpful. And then again, we also are doing work at the local level. And so if we can see the recommendations that we make in a plan that we co create with a community, we see those recommendations implemented, and then the data that comes out of those recommendations as positive, you know, that's another way that we can measure. But like, that doesn't happen overnight. Right? So being my board is very understanding that this is a long term process, and our stakeholders understand it's a long term process, luckily. And so I think as long as people feel like we're doing stuff, and we're trying to progress, again, measured in lots of different really, sometimes qualitative ways, then anyway, then it feels like we are progressing,

Trevor Brown:

Though you just teed up, the next series of questions I want to talk about is, which is the sort of landscape of other actors in this space? You mentioned, the Ohio Farm Bureau, for example, someone or the American, the Ohio Realtors Association. And so I'm gonna put those in one category. But then I'm also going to put all the localities that you might work with. You're a staff I think of less than 10. Right? It's a it's a small but mighty organization, how the two parts of this, the first part is sort of just like paint that landscape for us about how you see the stakeholders that are in your world. And then with a relatively small staff, how do you navigate and make connections with those organizations begin to build linkages and partnerships, presumably with a staff of of less than 10? You're not hitting every locality in the state every day of the week? How do you balance the breadth of the landscape with the resources you have available? So let's start with part one. What does that landscape look like?

Alison Goebel:

Yeah, so right. We are a small nonprofit of seven staff. We are just to be very clear. And on record, we are bipartisan. We have a bipartisan, I have a bipartisan staff and board, we're nonprofit, right? So that ends up being a real strength for us in terms of creating partnerships with other organizations. So and we're not we are not a membership, or we didn't we're not we don't have a membership. But we have a lot of stakeholders. So like we work with a lot of membership groups that are advocating for who have similar concerns as we do, whether that's neighborhood stabilization or housing. Right. So we're working with groups like the Ohio CDC Association or the Coalition on Homelessness and housing, but we're also working with the realtors, right. We work with like the Ohio Economic Development Association and some of its local members but we're also working with local Chambers of Commerce and we you know, have good relationships with individual staff at jobs Ohio, so we I will do a lot of that relationship building, I have a director of strategic engagement who is our senior government affairs person, but he is also helping build those relationships. And then right, we also have sort of all the local folks. And we see ourselves really serving as an intermediary between the locals who are, you know, doing are in the trenches doing the hard jobs that need to get done at the local level, who don't have the bandwidth to think about what's happening at the state, but know that state policy can either be a hindrance, or can be a help, they look to us as to sort of, you know, serve as an intermediary there. One thing we do is have several communities of practice. So individuals who have a shared interest in say, small legacy city issues or affordable housing, we bring them together on a quarterly basis and sort of create a community there. And so we have I have a staffer who does that. And it also is coalition building on how the brownfields work. So. Yeah, anyway, somehow it works. But no, we're not touching everyone. And a lot of times the work we're doing is either a coalition of the willing, or we're very deliberate and trying to cultivate relationships with key partners who can open doors for us that we otherwise can't open. So that might be the chamber, you know, or that might be the Farm Bureau, or whoever.

Trevor Brown:

Would you describe so the what I'm, what I'm hearing is like, there, there are a lot of actors in the space. All on this one, if we had a Venn diagram, they're probably all in that Venn diagram around community revitalization, you know, they want to help the Ohio would you say that this is an environment that's largely competitive, collaborative, or just sort of amorphous, it just exists. And there's just a lot of stuff out there. And in your role as intermediary, a lot of it is just pulling together people who might not have ever thought of collaborating? But you're, you're the glue that broker, what's your sort of general sense of this environment?

Alison Goebel:

Yeah, um, well, we, we, we focus on a few different subject areas. So I mean, I've been talking about brownfields a lot. And neighborhoods, we also have this whole transportation area. So we sort of pop into these conversations, we often are showing up as sort of the data people, right, and people are relying on us as the nerds provide the factoids. And for the most part, the world that we work in are pretty collaborative. There's not a lot of competition, in part, I think, because we're all trying to work towards the same goals. Now, you know, day to day, sometimes it feels like not everyone's on the same page. And but you know, I think that's, you're gonna find out with any sort of long term coalition effort. But, you know, I think I hope that we're perceived as honest actors, honest brokers, you know, that we're trustworthy. And like, that's the thing, you have to be trustworthy, like, you have to deliver what you say you're going to do, you have to, you know, stick to the script that we everyone's agreed upon. And when you consistently go rogue, like, people don't want to work with you, right? So like, we we really value our partnerships, because as a group as a staff of seven, like, we cannot do this work alone, we have to rely on others to help us along. Yep.

Trevor Brown:

So what advice as you think about some of the listeners of this or or students or young professionals, who are keen to use analysis, analytical tools, whether that be quantitative or more of the perhaps qualitative tools that we associated with a discipline like anthropology, but they want to use information and analysis to try and influence policy. And you know, that on the one hand, when we teach, it sounds like oh, yeah, you present information to a rational person, and they are informed by that information, and they make the right decision. But that's not how the real world works. So what what advice would you give to folks who have that analytical bent, but really are passionate about policy and want to see that knowledge be used to influence an area that they care about?

Alison Goebel:

Yeah, good question. I, you, I think you have to do it in a team setting, right? Like you have to build the team. As I was saying, not everyone has every skill set to do to change policy. Right. So I think we do it right at GOPC, if I may say so. So we you know, so we have the research team, and we have the data nerds and I was one of them at one point and you know, so like we have the research people who are crunching the numbers, building the databases, doing the analysis, doing the interviews, but like, they don't know how to talk to the folks at the Statehouse. Right so we have a government affairs person. Who knows, like how to hook policymakers on how to frame up the issues in a way that's going to resonate, then we can't just be, you know, we're not going to just do this ourselves. So we have to have the coalition building and like, it takes a lot of work to keep a coalition, you know, fed and watered and, you know, ready to move when you need them to move. So, for us, for me, I would say if you're interested, if you have, you know, you like doing research, you like doing analysis, and you want to influence policy, you need to be partnering, you need to be part of a larger team that includes government affairs includes coalition building, because otherwise, yeah, you can't just roll in with a bunch of data. Yeah, you just can't do that. It doesn't. For some policymakers that works, but sometimes, sometimes you have to come in in a slightly different way. And that's where the government affairs professionals are really good at figuring out what is the hook. So that's my advice.

Trevor Brown:

Dreamwork makes the team work.

Alison Goebel:

Yeah. Hey, yeah, exactly. Exactly.

Trevor Brown:

That's great. It's great advice. And it has resulted in a really great organization that does really, really impactful work. So So Allison, thank you for this conversation. But, but more importantly, thank you to you and your team. We're really excited about shining a light on the good work that you will do for for all the communities of Ohio. So thank you for your good service to the state and in this impactful conversation.

Alison Goebel:

Wonderful. Thanks again for the opportunity it really appreciate it.

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