Conor Kilgore is a producer of The Focus Group Podcast, and a qualitative researcher at Longwell Partners - and he joined host Farrah Bostic to discuss the value of listening to real people talk about their real beliefs and experiences in their own words. And he brought clips! We also discussed his journey into this work via work on political campaigns, and got as deep into the weeds as possible on how they do what they do.

Subscribe to The Bulwark here: https://www.thebulwark.com

Subscribe to The Focus Group Podcast here: https://www.thebulwark.com/s/thefocusgroup

Find out more about Longwell Partners here: https://www.longwellpartners.com

And find out more about Conor here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/conorkilgore/

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📍 Produced by The Difference Engine

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Welcome back to Crosstabs.

2

I'm your host, Farrah Bostic.

3

I'm not gonna take a ton of time with

the intro this week because the episode's

4

a little longer than normal, and that's

because it's both a great conversation

5

and because we have actual clips from

real focus groups with real voters.

6

If you are not a listener of the

Focus Group podcast from the Bulwark.

7

You really should be by now because

I talk about it almost constantly.

8

A few months ago, bulwark host Sarah

Longwell and a member of her team,

9

held a kind of behind the scenes

episode explaining how and what

10

and why they do what they do with

these groups week in and week out.

11

I dropped a comment saying I wish

they'd gone into even more detail.

12

Nerded out even harder, and the producer

of field manager and moderator she was

13

in conversation with reached out to me.

14

It took a minute to get it

scheduled, but we did it.

15

Connor Kilgore and I spent a ton of

time going way into the weeds of his

16

journey into this work, how the Focus

Group podcast comes together and what

17

they're hoping the audience takes from it.

18

And he brought clips.

19

Connor and I both had some

technical issues, so my apologies

20

for any inconsistency in the audio

quality, but you know it happens.

21

I hope you enjoy the conversation.

22

Here it is.

23

Farrah Bostic: Connor, thank you so much

for being willing to come talk to me.

24

You know, I will go ahead and just say,

I, I probably name drop the Focus Group

25

podcast and or Sarah Longwell, , every

other episode, something like that.

26

Because I am an absolute addict.

27

It is why I paid for The Bulwark in the

first place was it was behind the paywall.

28

I wanted that, that podcast so

badly that I gave you guys money.

29

But maybe as a, a way to begin, let's

just get to know you a little bit more.

30

How did you come into this kind of work?

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Conor Kilgore: So I grew up in New

Hampshire, which is relevant because

32

obviously we have the first presidential

primary in the country, and for as

33

long as I can remember, that became a.

34

A form of entertainment and then a form

of genuine caring about civic engagement.

35

But, um, the thing about growing up in

New Hampshire, it gives you a real sense

36

of agency over the political process.

37

You know, if you want to show up

and ask a bunch of questions to

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people who you want to be your

president, then you can do that.

39

You don't feel powerless the

way some of the voters I listen

40

to in focus groups nowadays do.

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Farrah Bostic: Mm-hmm.

42

Conor Kilgore: When I was in, you

know, in the 16 general election

43

when I was a senior in high school.

44

I was, um, a field canvasser for Kelly

Aott, who was our senator at the time.

45

She was running for reelection.

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She lost that race,

but she's now governor.

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That I would say is my training ground.

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You know, I've probably knocked on, uh,

several thousand doors in my life and had

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a lot of conversations with the, the very

interesting and heterodox people that, you

50

sometimes find up in Northern New England,

and I am one of those people as well.

51

So I would say that good training

ground for qualitative research.

52

Farrah Bostic: In 2016 I did a,

volunteer canvassing for, for

53

Clinton, in Coatsville, Pennsylvania.

54

And on the bus ride down, they're

giving us these like very strict

55

marching orders of what we were

supposed to accomplish at the door,

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which was very little conversation.

57

It was like, you know, do

you have a plan to vote?

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Do you know where you're voting?

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Can I ask you who you're voting for?

60

Like, it was data collection,

and very little like engagement.

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The neighborhood that we were walking

was predominantly African American.

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and it was, mostly like apartments

and row houses and that kind of thing.

63

and, you know, many people said

something to us to the effect of, look,

64

you guys show up every four years and

then we never hear from you again.

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Why should I talk to you?

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And then there were a lot of people

who we could see through the window.

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It was a Sunday, there was a football

game on and the Eagles were playing.

68

So no, no one was going to come to the

door to talk to us for any reason at all.

69

Um, so there was that, which was not

a conversation, just an observation.

70

And then we found this kind of

more affluent white woman who came

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to the door and said, you know, I

voted for Hillary in the, in the

72

primary, but then I did my research.

73

And in that moment, you know, I think you

probably can appreciate this as a, as a

74

qualitative researcher is like you just

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Conor Kilgore: Did my

research drinking game.

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Farrah Bostic: Yeah.

77

You just immediately know what that meant.

78

Right?

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So her friends had started surfacing

negative stuff on Facebook.

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Like that was, that's what

she meant by did her research.

81

And if there had been a, you know, an

incentive for us, or a kind of sense

82

of permission for us to stand there

and chat with her, I would've loved to.

83

, So my question is, I feel like as

a qualitative researcher knocking

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on doors the way Democrats do it,

and I did it again in, uh, this

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cycle, you know, it, it's, it's not

a getting to know you opportunity.

86

It's not really a conversation at all.

87

It's like a cold canvassing

data collection and you know,

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you should go vote, right?

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You know, you should go vote.

90

But not like a, yeah, not like a get to

know your neighbors or anything like that.

91

What was, what is it like

canvassing for Republicans?

92

Are they as rigid?

93

Conor Kilgore: there's one interesting

thing about paid canvassers, which, you

94

know, plenty of campaigns probably on both

sides of the aisle are doing nowadays,

95

and on one level it is, like you say,

kind of a cold data gathering operation.

96

you know, with some minimal level of

vetting, they will hire just about anyone.

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I think we saw some of the perils

98

There were some, you know, there were

news stories that came out about,

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you know, Ron DeSantis super Pac

canvassers on people's ring cameras,

100

smoking joints, picking their noses,

uh, making some kind of rude comments.

101

I think they had to do all kinds

of retraining of canvassers.

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. You know, some, some paid canvassers in my

experience, were better at it than others.

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Though when people are, you know, get

to be more proven commodities at the

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canvassing thing, then uh, you can

trust them with a little more persuasion

105

work, which is, in my experience,

how that was sort of divvied up.

106

I ended up getting to have a bit more

persuasion conversations, which got

107

a little bit less fun in say, October

108

2016 New Hampshire Senate race when

Kelly Aott basically said, um, after

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Trump initially won the nomination,

she said she would vote for him and

110

support him, but not endorse him.

111

I am still not exactly clear

on what that distinction means.

112

And then after the Access Hollywood tape,

she said she was not gonna vote for him.

113

If she had just stuck to one

of those pats, I think she

114

probably would've won that race.

115

Like she lost by a thousand votes

and the like right wing third party

116

candidates got like 30,000 votes combined.

117

Farrah Bostic: Hmm.

118

Conor Kilgore: but I spent the

last month of that race getting,

119

you know, passive aggressively

told, by like MAGA oriented people.

120

Oh, well I'm still gonna vote for her,

but I'm, I'm really, I'm really mad.

121

maybe even I'm gonna vote

for a third party candidate.

122

And was not my experience that people

who were mad at her about the Trump thing

123

before Access Hollywood, were saying,

oh, now you did the right thing and we're

124

going to, I, you know, all is forgiven.

125

Farrah Bostic: Right.

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Conor Kilgore: were still mad.

127

Farrah Bostic: There

there's a term for this.

128

It's, it's, um, God, something, it's,

it's something canvassing, but I

129

can't remember what it's called now.

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That's like, you're not actually

trying to persuade overtly like

131

you're doing this kind of, I'll

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Conor Kilgore: Relational

canvassing, relational

133

organizing.

134

Farrah Bostic: um, and, and

there's also just this kind of,

135

. You know, talking to people who genuinely

you do not agree with, um, form of

136

canvassing that is meant to be like, , a

friend of mine used the, the metaphor

137

of like planting a seed and then leaving

it and like it will grow on its own

138

is sort of the, the approach to that.

139

But I think this kind of opportunity for.

140

Actually listening to people

is, , is the thing that, you

141

know, again, I can't help myself.

142

You know, I interview people for a living.

143

So having the opportunity to be on

someone's doorstep and to ask them a

144

couple of questions, but only be able

to ask them some questions that, you

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know, are interesting breadcrumbs, but

don't lead you immediately anywhere.

146

Um, and don't really lead to an

opportunity for them to feel like I'm not

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just some weird interloper who showed up

though I am, uh, you know, like I did,

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I did take a bus here from Brooklyn.

149

And then just the opportunity for me to

understand a little bit more about where

150

they're coming from so that it's not

this utterly baffling sort of experience.

151

I mean, , my emotional reaction

152

I, I guess I just didn't really

realize how much they hated us.

153

That I, I, it's hard for me

to dislodge that takeaway.

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I'm not, I'm not sure that, I'm not

sure I'm totally wrong about it.

155

I'm not sure it's totally right either.

156

but the kind of opportunity to hear from

people seems like, it's right there.

157

We're standing there right on their

doorstep, and instead we're just like,

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do you know where you're polling places

and do you have a plan to vote and

159

here's your, here's your door knocker

slate of candidates that we'd like you

160

to consider, and that kind of thing.

161

Conor Kilgore: I think lends itself to

sort of a attitude that you're talking

162

about of where people see, you know,

this is supposed to be about our lives,

163

but instead you might see this map of 67

counties red and blue painted counties in

164

Pennsylvania as like places where votes

are extracted, which is maybe an attitude

165

that election analysts, , and people who

do this for a living can be guilty of.

166

I, I love looking at a, a good red

and blue map and nerding out over it.

167

Maybe I'm a little guilty of it too.

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Farrah Bostic: I mean, yes.

169

I think that's a really good way of

putting it, , like votes are there to

170

be harvested as opposed to, cultivated.

171

So from there, from there, what happened?

172

You're doing that kind of work, I,

I assume you're also, , around this

173

period of time, either in high school

or getting ready to go to college.

174

What's, what's, what's

happening next for you?

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Conor Kilgore: So I graduated

176

You know, the first year

of Trump's first term.

177

I kind of aspired to be one of

these campaign operative types.

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And I kind of.

179

Made a decision.

180

It was like, I, I cannot stand the guy

who's in the White House, but there'll

181

come a day when he's no longer in

the picture, and maybe the Republican

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party will go back to normal, which

is a, is an assessment that I've

183

walked away from, to put it mildly.

184

, But I did a couple of internships

with a, you know, like a Republican

185

advertising firm that I had a, you

know, a tie to from AOT world, interned

186

at the National Republican Senatorial

187

that's around the time that, you had this,

these two runoff races in Georgia, David

188

Perdue and Kelly Loeffler, and they , had

gone along with, , you know, the efforts

189

to overturn the election in Georgia.

190

And that I felt, frankly, pretty

gross that I had been a part of that.

191

even in some small way, I don't wanna

make it sound like I was like, you

192

know, key cog in the machine, but I.

193

doing things that, uh, supported

the operation in a way that like an

194

intern communications intern did.

195

, And so the day after those

elections was January 6th.

196

And I, so when I say I walked away

from my thinking about how like the

197

Republican party's gonna come back

to normal, my thinking is, well, if

198

this, you know, the capitol getting

sacked because of this guy doesn't

199

break the fever, then nothing will.

200

And over the course of 2021, I

graduated college that year and, you

201

know, , spent a lot of time ruminating

and like road tripping across the

202

country to Yellowstone and whatnot.

203

Uh, and after that, kind of concluded

that if I was ever gonna do political

204

work again, it could not be within like

the traditional Republican party and.

205

One thing led to another, and I landed in

Sarah Long Well's Shop, which was adjacent

206

to the Bulwark, but I had followed the

Bulwark for a couple years, followed her

207

and, uh, especially Tim Miller, when I

was one of these like aspiring campaign

208

operative types, he was like an, you know,

one of the names, you know, um, one of

209

the like most prominent Republican names.

210

maybe it's like the pod save

guys on the other side of that

211

Farrah Bostic: Well, I think I, I

first, I think the first time I ever

212

heard Tim Miller's voice was at some,

well, not at, uh, listening to the

213

recording of a Pod Save live event

that he was kind of echoing them

214

or asking questions or something.

215

Um, and

216

Conor Kilgore: at them to

not, not to defend Al Franken.

217

Uh, after,

218

Farrah Bostic: Yes, yes.

219

Conor Kilgore: we, you know, you,

you can't, you're making their

220

accusations against you work, if

you're just saying that actually it's,

221

you know, we, we can't stand Trump's

treatment of women, but it's okay.

222

We can give Al Franken a pass because

really he, he, you know, he voted

223

for the Lily Ledbetter Fair Pay Act.

224

It's, um, it not a line of thinking

I, I particularly care for.

225

Um, so I, I appreciated that from him.

226

, Farrah Bostic: And so maybe talk a bit

about how, , the focus group podcast

227

came to be what was the idea there?

228

Conor Kilgore: So I was not in.

229

The shop for the first eight episodes.

230

So the, the first episodes of

the Focus Group podcast came

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down in September of 2021.

232

Uh, I actually, I was just like a

rank and file listener of the Bulwark

233

at the time, and, uh, was, it wasn't

entirely clear to me that like working

234

here was something I was gonna pursue.

235

but so I got here in January of 2022

and every episode of the show that's

236

come out since then, I have had my

hands on to one degree or another.

237

I can tell you a little bit about just

how, like, why Sarah got into this

238

and why she is so passionate about it.

239

She, I think, came out of a Republican

communications background, uh, from a

240

company called Bering Company, uh, which

was not exactly a political campaign shop.

241

It was more of a, did a

lot of policy advocacy.

242

And after Trump got elected,

uh, she had kind of.

243

Thought, oh, well, Republicans are

responsible people and you know,

244

are not gonna take this lying down.

245

And you know, the adults in the DC

Republican class are gonna save us.

246

And she working with Bill Crystal,

like, wanted to recruit a primary

247

challenger to Trump in 2020.

248

I'm sure this, a lot of this is

Lori, you've heard before, but,

249

uh, just for your listeners,

250

Farrah Bostic: Yeah.

251

Conor Kilgore: wanted Larry

Hogan to run, who was the

252

governor of Maryland at the time,

253

Farrah Bostic: Right.

254

Conor Kilgore: and as she was trying

to make the case that there was a lien

255

for somebody to challenge Trump, you

know, commissioned some polling and

256

commissioned the first focus groups.

257

She did some of the first focus groups,

, where she went up to New Hampshire and

258

listened to these, you know, former

Trump voters talk about their vote.

259

And her impression from that

was, oh my God, I've had the

260

Republican electorate totally wrong.

261

I thought that Trump was kind

of an accident of history, but.

262

Realized that they actively liked what

they were signing up for in many cases,

263

and got a real good flavor for why

they had signed up for what they did.

264

Farrah Bostic: Yeah.

265

Conor Kilgore: I think what she wanted

to do with the focus group is to,

266

as she always says, like political

pundits can sometimes substitute

267

their own judgment for, um, you

know, what they think people think.

268

But, listening to the way actual voters

talk about it and doing it week in and

269

week out over years is, as she likes to

say, a cheat code for political analysis.

270

Farrah Bostic: Part of what I like about

the work of talking to people about all

271

sorts of things is that, you know, I, I

don't do a lot of like luxury brand work.

272

So I'm talking to normal people

who shop at Walmart, who haven't

273

been to college yet, who, you know.

274

I mean, we did a project a couple

years ago where everyone we interviewed

275

that was a ordinary person, was a

person who had been incarcerated.

276

Because we were talking to people about

the experience of probation and parole.

277

So, you know, these, these are not the,

not the people who make it, you know, who

278

have columns in the Atlantic or something.

279

So, um, so yes, and I, and you know, it

is a thing that I think about with a lot

280

of people who work in marketing is they

think the whole world looks like them.

281

Um, or they have a preferred story about

how things work and they're very good at

282

marshaling evidence that they're right.

283

, And not very good at marshaling

evidence that they might be wrong.

284

Maybe let's kind of just do some

of the block and tackle on the

285

Focus Group podcast, which is about

how many groups are you doing?

286

It feels like you're doing

groups every week, obviously.

287

'cause the show comes out not

every week of the year, but you

288

know, you take some time off.

289

But it seems like there are

even still then groups ongoing.

290

How, what's the kind of cadence of work?

291

Conor Kilgore: so we usually

do at least one group a week.

292

Sometimes there's some weeks that are

zero, some weeks that are four or five.

293

Uh, I think we, we've done

like 70 groups this year.

294

We did a little over a hundred in 2024.

295

, And that's just like the

groups we do for the podcast.

296

Uh, you know, occasionally we have,

you know, here and there we'll

297

take some outside engagements.

298

That is roughly the cadence of the work.

299

For me, I started as like a note

taker and like wrangler of audio clips

300

for the show and eventually had an,

I guess, enough aptitude to write

301

moderator guides, design screeners,

moderate many of the groups myself.

302

, So that was a years long process

of, , hoovering up a little

303

bit of that responsibility.

304

But, um, it's like a, yeah, one to

five group a week cadence, depending

305

on, depending on the season.

306

I guess there was a two week period

307

we were trying to, you know, we were

trying to bully Biden outta the race and

308

constantly taking the pulse of voters,

where I think we did nine focus groups

309

Farrah Bostic: Oh wow.

310

Okay.

311

Yeah, that's, that's a good, that's a good

number of focus groups for a single week.

312

Maybe talk a bit about, it depends

on the week and on what you're

313

interested in, what kind of shape

of voters you're talking to.

314

But they're all kind of roughly what

we might consider to be at least

315

theoretically persuadable voters.

316

So they are people who are Trump

to Biden, Biden to Trump undecided,

317

those types of people typically.

318

That's my, that's my impression.

319

But maybe talk a bit about what is the

kind of broad, you know, focus in terms of

320

the types of people that you're interested

in hearing from when you do these?

321

Conor Kilgore: So like you say, there's

a disproportionate focus on the, it's

322

funny you, you mentioned not liking

median voter theory, but, uh, I, I do

323

a bit of median voter theory and like

who, what kind of group can we talk

324

to that like roughly approximates,

maybe not the people with the exact.

325

Quote unquote centrist views, but

like the people whose way of thinking

326

is gonna swing this election.

327

Uh, and that is a, can be an

imperfect proxy to just do like

328

Biden to Trump voters, but it

is a, a pretty effective one.

329

that is probably what, like 5%

or less of the voting public.

330

And we have, , we've become

experts in this small 5% niche.

331

I, it's like the old thing that

PhDs say, like, you learn more

332

and more about less and less until

you know everything about nothing.

333

Um,

334

Farrah Bostic: That's a good line.

335

Conor Kilgore: so, but like my, my high

level goal is always to cover the entire

336

political spectrum we've actually spent

a lot more time in the last month or so

337

on Republicans because I think there's

some interesting schisms emerging

338

within the Republican party that are.

339

You know, during Trump's first term,

we were all like, oh, when is the

340

Republican Civil War gonna start?

341

'cause all the adult

Republicans are gonna come back.

342

Well now the Republican Civil War

is between like what you might call

343

the MAGA establishment and like the

Marjorie Taylor Greens of the world.

344

Um, maybe she's, she's an

imperfect avatar for the, but

345

it's like, there is the GOP is,

346

Farrah Bostic: maga.

347

Yeah,

348

Conor Kilgore: yeah.

349

Like Trump, Vance and Rubio

are the GOP establishment now.

350

And the, there's like an

even crazier insurgency.

351

I don't know if you're following

the Republican primary for

352

governor in Florida, but, uh,

353

Farrah Bostic: No, I haven't even looked.

354

Conor Kilgore: Byron Donalds, who's a

congressman from I think Naples area

355

is, you know, the Trump endorsed pick.

356

Uh, he was maybe on Trump's like,

maybe not the short list, but

357

the long list for VP last year.

358

Uh, and he's running against

this venture capital guy named

359

James Fishback, who is running a.

360

You know, pretty racist Bullhorn, Byron

Donalds is black, and James Fishback

361

said like, Byron Donalds is a slave to

362

corporate donors, or something like that.

363

I forget what exact, he was also

saying like, Nick Fuentes is,

364

followers seem very well educated and

articulate or something like that.

365

Um, this guy also,

366

Farrah Bostic: famously well-educated

and articulate groupers.

367

Yes.

368

Conor Kilgore: I know, uh, Fishback

has all kinds of other, um, interesting

369

personal foibles as well, uh, that are

colleague at the Bulwark Will Summer has

370

covered at some length in his newsletter.

371

If any of

372

Farrah Bostic: I would like to know

his personal, like self-care routine

373

for, uh, having to absorb all of the

crazy, uh, since he covers it so, well,

374

Conor Kilgore: uh, will, summer was

telling me last week that I, I am like

375

stone faced in the focus groups and I, I.

376

Took that as high praise from like

the guy who wrote a book about Q Anon

377

who's like, you, you, you really stayed

on the level with the, , the comments

378

you have to hear in these groups.

379

Farrah Bostic: you know, it's, it is a,

I think this is an underappreciated thing

380

that, like, I, I, I don't know how much

this can be taught exactly, but I think

381

great focus group moderators have kind

of resting, I have no opinion face . And

382

it, it, you know, I don't know if you

have this experience or not, but I, if

383

I am in a line for too long, someone

will start telling me their life story

384

and they will tell me things

that you would think people would

385

not want to tell to a stranger

386

Conor Kilgore: Yeah.

387

Farrah Bostic: themselves.

388

Like not flattering things, right?

389

and, and not necessarily particularly

salacious things or whatever, but

390

just not very flattering things.

391

Not, not putting themselves

in their best light.

392

and they just dump it on

you in like a few minutes.

393

And, uh, my husband is frequently

like, they'll come, you know, come

394

home from whatever the grocery store or

something and be like, well, the lady

395

in front of me at the line was telling

me all about blah, blah, blah, blah.

396

And he's like, you weren't gone that long.

397

And I was like, no, I know,

but I seem to have the space

398

that says, go ahead, hit me.

399

What do you got?

400

and so that, that is, that is good praise.

401

That is, it is, it is an important

characteristic of focus group

402

moderating because, um, it doesn't

work if they think you're judging them.

403

Conor Kilgore: I, I try very, so I

think like the most important trait is

404

to be genuinely curious because people

can almost smell it on you if you

405

are, if you're secretly judging them.

406

But I try to go in genuinely wondering

how people's brains work and try to.

407

Be like your, your friendly

neighborhood focus group moderator.

408

It's funny you mentioned, you know,

being in line at the coffee shop.

409

This is not my personal experience.

410

I have like resting,

don't talk to me face.

411

I am, I am definitely an introvert.

412

It is actually a weird turn

of my life that I like.

413

My job is to talk to people for a

living, and ask people questions.

414

it's not something that's come naturally

to me, but when it's on a topic that I am

415

have nerded out on for, you know, the past

two decades of life, I guess it works out

416

Farrah Bostic: Well, as someone who lives

right on the cusp of introversion and

417

extroversion, curiosity is the thing that

will break any introvert out of just like

418

being totally recessive at all times.

419

, I, I will say though that

since the pandemic, I think my

420

introvertedness . Is like more present.

421

I went to a book party a couple of years

ago and, , there were some relatively

422

famous people there, and I had brief

conversations with them, but like, I

423

was with a friend and she was really

the only person that I knew at the

424

party, and so she knew everybody and

she did a great job of introducing me.

425

That's one of her superpowers.

426

But, , I just couldn't, I couldn't

do it, like, for whatever reason,

427

my ability to like, make small talk

with total strangers had receded.

428

And, um, and at one point someone

who is, , a relatively well-known

429

broadcaster, um, was clearly like trying

to, like, I was making him uncomfortable

430

because, because I was just sort of

standing there watching everyone.

431

and it was clear that I was studying

the room but not fully participating.

432

And, I would imagine he's a great host,

um, because he really tried to pull me in,

433

So I hear you on the introversion thing,

434

Conor Kilgore: It is a virtue to

listen more than you speak, right?

435

Uh, that's the thing that like

everyone's grandmother says,

436

Farrah Bostic: Yes.

437

Conor Kilgore: two ears and one

mouth for a li for a reason.

438

And,

439

Farrah Bostic: Exactly right.

440

So how do you, how do you like this work?

441

Since, since it's not necessarily what

you thought you would be doing, but here

442

you are, how, how do you like doing it?

443

Conor Kilgore: I love it and I love that.

444

Um, I think you've alluded to this,

there's so much in Washington in, not

445

just in like the research field, but in

politics and people who work on campaigns,

446

cover campaigns where you are simply.

447

We, there's a lot of spin and I just

love living in a culture where we

448

basically say what's on our minds.

449

Uh, and you know, if you come up in any

kind of campaign world, you get trained

450

to, like, there's a bit of like a wink,

wink, nod, nod aspect to everything, like

451

every campaign talking point you have.

452

and, you know, even coming on this

podcast, the attitude like Sarah had

453

was like, whatever, just like say

out loud what you think to be true,

454

because that's just what we do here.

455

Farrah Bostic: Yeah.

456

You know, the, the real reason I've

been, excited to have you come on.

457

We've been, you know, trying to work

out the schedule and as we were talking

458

about before I hit record, um, I, and

as the audience probably knows by now,

459

I spent two months gut renovating and

laundry closet by myself and took my

460

mom on a trip and lost track of time.

461

but I think the, The saying, what

you really think is the, , to your

462

point about listening is a huge part

of it, but when you do this kind

463

of work, you have to listen really

openly and then you have to reckon

464

with what you heard really honestly.

465

And that doesn't mean that you

have to say everything that they

466

said in the room must be true,

467

Conor Kilgore: No.

468

Farrah Bostic: any kind

of like verifiable way.

469

Uh, but it is what they said

that they said it is true.

470

And then you have to deal with what it

means, , and make decisions accordingly.

471

And so for me, you know, my background

comes out of first creative and then

472

strategy in, in marketing and advertising.

473

And I just became far more curious

about who it was I was trying to

474

persuade than about the thing I

was trying to persuade them about.

475

And so, so that's, that's how

I wound up on, on, on this

476

side of the marketing industry.

477

But I think for my purposes it's like.

478

Like I said, standing in line at

the grocery store, you wanna tell me

479

your life story, knock yourself out.

480

I'd love to hear it.

481

but professionally, I'm doing it

for a reason, and that reason is to

482

develop or effectuate some strategy.

483

, And so we're gonna get

into some of that as well.

484

But I wanted to also just ask about,

because I think one of the things I see

485

in comments about the Focus Group podcast

is I would say there's kind of two big

486

buckets, and I feel like every qualitative

researcher has heard these two big buckets

487

of, of criticism about focus groups.

488

One is, , questioning whether or

not the people in the group are

489

representative of dot, dot, dot, you know,

490

Conor Kilgore: Yeah.

491

Farrah Bostic: um.

492

Conor Kilgore: anybody to find a

room of 10 people that are perfectly

493

representative of anything.

494

Farrah Bostic: Right,

495

Conor Kilgore: Right?

496

Farrah Bostic: right.

497

Well, they're representative

of themselves, right?

498

And there are, the story, the story I

always love is, , my mother was, , a major

499

fan of a soda that is no longer available

called TAB that Coca-Cola manufactured.

500

It was their first diet soda

before they created Diet Coke.

501

The local bottler would sometimes just not

make enough and she'd go to the grocery

502

store and there wouldn't be any, and she

would get, I don't think, I don't know

503

if, if they do these anymore, she would

get a rain check for tabs so that she

504

would prepay for tabs so that she could

come get it when it was back in stock.

505

And at some point it had been weeks

where they just had not distributed any

506

tab to our local Safeway or whatever.

507

And so she called the number on the back

of the can, and asked about, you know,

508

what's going on, why is there no tab?

509

And Coca-Cola's customer service line

told her that they really appreciated

510

her call and that they considered.

511

A call like this to be, and they would,

you know, pass it along to the local

512

bottler because they considered a call

like this to be representative of, at

513

least, I can't remember what the number

was, but some thousands of people,

514

like if you took the time to call us

about tab, you probably represent in

515

your metro area a thousand people.

516

And so if there are a thousand people

who also like tab in the Portland

517

metro area, we better make some tab.

518

And I guess that fell off at

some inevitable point because

519

they don't make it anymore.

520

But so there, there is, you know,

the 10 people in the room are

521

representative of themselves.

522

There are other people who share

80% of their views and you might

523

as well know what they are.

524

But no, you should not extrapolate out.

525

My least favorite thing is when

people try to represent a focus group.

526

Numerically, I will cast

some shade right now.

527

Axios occasionally does a focus

group with Sego, where they, I

528

didn't mean Sego does the recruiting.

529

I don't remember who does the

moderating, but they will report it out

530

as like 70% of the respondents said X.

531

And it's like, guys, you did

one, maybe two focus groups.

532

You can't say 70%, you just can't.

533

Conor Kilgore: I, I fully, I fully co-sign

what you're saying and I, that's not

534

to say that I don't occasionally write

like, oh, well seven people in this group

535

said they were gonna vote for Harris

536

and

537

Farrah Bostic: fine.

538

Seven people said it.

539

That's fine.

540

You can count the people

who said a thing, but yes.

541

Conor Kilgore: and I am

hypersensitive like we always need

542

to do a land acknowledgement of

like, this is not a real poll.

543

Um, even sometimes they're conversations

like, should we, should we add up

544

these kinds of tallies over all

of our focus groups over months?

545

And I'm like a pole that of like 150

people that was in the fields for six

546

months is still not a very good pole.

547

Farrah Bostic: No, no.

548

I mean, I, I do, this is actually

a fantasy I had for a long time,

549

which was looking back across a

year's worth of re I mean, we, we do

550

things on extremely disparate topics.

551

So, you know, one month it'll be

about higher ed and the next it'll be

552

about, , you know, carbonated beverages.

553

In the next it'll be

about car refrigerators.

554

A category I didn't know existed

until last fall when I did some

555

focus groups about car refrigerators.

556

Like, there, there's a variety of

things, and yet, like, there are

557

interesting through lines, like

people will bring up cost of living

558

or they'll bring up, weather or, you

know, like they'll, they'll bring

559

up all kinds of stuff over time.

560

And I've frequently been interested in

like, should I go back and see like,

561

what were these interesting kind of.

562

Below the surface themes that were

ever present across every, everything

563

we did over the course of a year.

564

And then I get exhausted thinking

about doing it, um, because

565

it would just be me doing it.

566

So, I suppose I could give it to like

notebook LM or something and try to

567

see if it could figure it out for me.

568

Conor Kilgore: Can confirm notebook.

569

LM is great for this kind of thing.

570

Farrah Bostic: Yeah.

571

Yes.

572

Conor Kilgore: it's, it is very hard

to, you know, track these trends

573

over time in any like, concrete way.

574

I, you know, I am very used to telling

people who like aren't steeped in

575

qualitative research that like, it is

not like math with one right answer.

576

There are can always be several.

577

And, uh, it is heavily dependent

on human judgment and always

578

questioning your own assumptions.

579

And, you know, there's like this whole

other dimension that, , I deal with,

580

which is like, how, how are you gonna

present this to the outside world?

581

And my answer is like, we, we tried to be

as transparent and, uh, publish as many.

582

Contradictory things, things that

583

don't confirm our priors, things that do.

584

I hope people who have listened to the

Focus Group podcast for a long time

585

get that impression that we are not

just, , if every focus group we had was

586

churning out like, oh my God, I love

Josh Shapiro so much, then maybe that

587

should raise some red flags for people.

588

But

589

Farrah Bostic: Mm-hmm.

590

Conor Kilgore: I think, , you know,

we've done plenty of analysis over

591

the last year that, um, points to, you

know, good political strategy that may

592

not be exactly what, what many of the

people at the Bulwark might prefer.

593

Farrah Bostic: Sure.

594

And so that, that leads me to another

kind of methodological question about

595

recruitment, because I think when you

and Sarah did, you're behind the scenes,

596

you talked about a fairly rigorous

screening that you put folks through.

597

How do you find people who are

willing to talk about politics

598

but are maybe not super political?

599

Conor Kilgore: I will not out our

market research vendor, but the,

600

the bulk of the people, or I guess

the bulk of their client base, my

601

impression is not political at all.

602

Uh, they're, yeah, they're people

who have signed up you know, through

603

some Facebook ad to be able to give

their opinions or test products.

604

Someone in a focus group last night

was saying they, you know, they

605

had recently tested an AI therapy

606

or AI therapist.

607

Uh, I don't think it was through

our same like vendor, but there are

608

some people, and we've like used a

couple of different vendors over time

609

and had a couple of repeats across

different vendors that we used.

610

There are just some people out there who

grind research studies, which is not the

611

same kind of person necessarily that will

like pick up the phone from a pollster.

612

Um, and if you do like a, for example,

613

voters and you have a national screen,

you can get like a hundred people to

614

qualify for that group in like 12 hours,

uh, at least with our particular vendor.

615

The group of people we get covers the

waterfront pretty well from hyper-engaged

616

in politics to completely unengaged.

617

Farrah Bostic: Maybe talk a bit about the

kind of screening and rescreening that

618

you do, because this is also something

that we do quite a bit of, and some of

619

it is just for like, you know, checking

that you'll be a good respondent, right?

620

That like you're, you're capable

of engaging in a conversation.

621

And some of it is also just

like a check of , are you

622

really engaged in this category?

623

You know?

624

Yes.

625

No, maybe so like some of, some of

that verification that that not only

626

will you be a good talker, but you will

also be able to talk about this thing.

627

'cause you have experience with it.

628

Conor Kilgore: yeah.

629

So before anyone gets into our focus

group, we talk to them on the phone,

630

not just about like, is your Zoom setup

working, but also just run them through

631

our screener questions again and make

sure that, uh, when they are not prompted

632

with the list of answers that they.

633

Give the same answers that they gave on

the screener survey that they filled out.

634

As someone who is kind of a politics

junkie, it is kind of wild to me

635

that someone would like not remember

who they voted for for president

636

last year or even four years ago.

637

But those people are out there.

638

Um,

639

we have really enjoyed, we do a lot of

short answers on the screener as well.

640

, How do you feel about

the state of the country?

641

How do you think the

Trump presidency is going?

642

named five pieces of media

you consumed this week?

643

Farrah Bostic: Mm.

644

Conor Kilgore: Uh, which it's always a

fun way to give you a pulse on things,

645

and you can kind of grade people's the

quality of the responses, not based on

646

the content, but based on the effort.

647

So if people just have like, how

are things going in the country?

648

Good, bad.

649

That's not great.

650

Farrah Bostic: Mm-hmm.

651

Conor Kilgore: Or I think they're going

bad because X, Y, ZI think they're

652

going good because actually my 401k

is doing great and I think the tariffs

653

are gonna be great for the country.

654

Well, okay.

655

We're happy to have that person.

656

Um, actually our particular vendor

has a, um, a little disclaimer

657

for when responses to those short

answer things are copy and pasted

658

and sometimes it's very obvious when

people have, uh, have answered with ai

659

and that is certainly

a red flag for us too.

660

Farrah Bostic: I think it's possible we

use the same vendor as, as you're, as

661

you're describing some of those tools,

it's, it's really useful to have those

662

things now 'cause we ask a lot of open

ends in screeners just because I find that

663

it helps me detect a couple of things.

664

One is people who aren't really sincere.

665

The other is, it helps me check what

I'm wrong about in the screener.

666

and I'll come back to that in a second.

667

And then the third thing it's helpful for

is like, there is a lot of copy paste.

668

There is a lot of use of there,

chat GPT to respond to open ends.

669

The telltale sign is it's got

paragraph breaks and it's perfectly

670

spelled and punctuated and,

671

Conor Kilgore: Oh my God.

672

Farrah Bostic: So I'm very grateful

to these vendors for noting when

673

something has been copy pasted.

674

But I would also say, if you

haven't noticed this already, there

675

are people who will use, , voice

to text to respond to open ends.

676

'cause they're taking the

screener on their phones.

677

, And sometimes I really wish they

would just give me the recording of

678

the answer because I'm like reading

the answer going, is this gibberish

679

or is this, is this something else?

680

And it's just like, it's not a very

good, uh, speech to text translator.

681

Anyway, it's just people are using

new modes and new technologies to

682

respond to our screeners and surveys.

683

And we should take that into account.

684

Conor Kilgore: Yeah.

685

And you can, you can prompt

people with our particular

686

vendor, which may also be yours.

687

, You can prompt people to do a

video response to once they've

688

qualified for your survey.

689

It's like an optional thing.

690

Once people have qualified,

you can't force them.

691

To do a video as part of the screener.

692

I kind of wish you could

do that, but nevertheless,

693

Farrah Bostic: Yes.

694

Yes.

695

You also have taken on the role

of writing the, the guides.

696

I mean, I assume that you sort of start

with, you wanna cover certain topics in

697

this week's groups, and then you figure

out who you wanna hear about that from.

698

Is that, is that fair

699

Conor Kilgore: Right.

700

Farrah Bostic: And so talk a bit

about how, how topics are, are chosen.

701

Is it sort of a rip from

the headlines thing?

702

Or how, how do you guys figure out

what you wanna ask people about?

703

Conor Kilgore: Some of it is

ripped from the headlines.

704

I alluded to this earlier, but take

like a, over the next three months,

705

I want to have, had a good pulse

on the left, middle, and right.

706

Uh, and all of the nuances that

might take place within those.

707

certainly, you know, I think it's

been a problem as we've gone through

708

2025, uh, it to have like the same

conversation about how, what the

709

Trump administration is doing and

how few people seem to care about it,

710

uh, over and over again.

711

, That is like, there were, there were a

handful of reasons we took the summer

712

off from doing the focus group podcast,

but part of the reason was like we could

713

come back in September with much newer

and more interesting things to say.

714

And I like to think we have.

715

Farrah Bostic: Mm-hmm.

716

Conor Kilgore: I try to look at like

717

issues are gonna define that time.

718

I think about ai, I think

about maybe the Middle East.

719

Um, and just looking for like

what's creating schisms within

720

each of our political coalitions.

721

Farrah Bostic: Yeah, I, I remember there

was, maybe last a, after Biden bowed out,

722

there was an episode that had, , I dunno

if it was groups of black voters or if

723

it just had some clips of black voters,

but there was a woman in particular

724

who had this kind of image of Kamala

Harris as having been put in the corner

725

to color, she didn't have a real job.

726

She wasn't a serious person.

727

I think the same person, I

think it was the same person.

728

I'd have to go back and listen.

729

Also did not like having, . Oh God.

730

Uh, Megan Thee stallion.

731

Megan thee stallion on the, described

it as ratchet, , and like being kind

732

of offended by what she regarded

as a sort of pandering to the black

733

community through, through something

that was like class coded to her within

734

the black community as inappropriate.

735

but also having this kind of

pejorative view of, of Harris.

736

And I just thought, oh God, like main,

I wanna mainline that, that set of

737

groups because I have, , a variety of

friends, , who are, you know, people who

738

grew up in South Carolina who are African

American, whose, you know, moms and

739

aunties, not huge fans of Kamala Harris.

740

Never liked the Converse sneakers.

741

Like, never, never really

embraced her as one of their own

742

and for a variety of reasons.

743

But that imagery is just, . It's

incredibly evocative and as like a brand

744

strategist, my reaction to those kinds of

moments is , there's so much to chew on

745

in that my example of this in, in market

research, especially marketing research

746

where we're showing people ideas for ads

or whatever, is when someone says, yes,

747

I like it, it's shortened to the point.

748

It's like, it's, it's deaf.

749

Like this is definitely not the, this

is not the message, this is not the ad.

750

Because I like it because it got, I, I

didn't have to endure it for too long,

751

is not a, not a hugely positive sign.

752

But on the other hand being like, I

feel personally slighted by this ad.

753

How dare you insult me in this way?

754

Like that is okay.

755

That's a big warning light to actually,

you know, use as the lighthouse

756

to steer you around those rocks as

opposed to going straight into them.

757

Yes.

758

Conor Kilgore: I think it, it

can be pretty fraught actually

759

to like test political ads

on a focus group and like let

760

Farrah Bostic: I am so glad

761

Conor Kilgore: you

762

know two, two people's like

opinion have veto power over an

763

entire like six figure campaign.

764

Uh, because everyone freaking will

tell you they hate advertising

765

Farrah Bostic: Oh,

766

Conor Kilgore: everybody is, every

single person is persuaded by some

767

kind of advertising at some point.

768

Farrah Bostic: yes.

769

Thi this was, yeah, this was a thing.

770

Even in, even when I started working in,

in market research, uh, my UK colleagues,

771

if I did groups in, , in London, we would

often have as a warmup question, have you

772

seen an ad lately that you really liked?

773

We could not ask this question in the

United States because people would

774

just be like, are you kidding me?

775

Absolutely not.

776

I've never seen an ad

that I like, you know,

777

Conor Kilgore: We did this with a focus

group in Pennsylvania last year, uh, with

778

the, not just the presidential race, but

when Bob Casey and Dave McCormick were

779

running against each other, like, oh,

what, you know, which ads have you seen?

780

Have any of them been

really persuasive to you?

781

, And people were like,

absolutely none of them.

782

Uh, and one of my colleagues was really

struck by that finding, , who had not

783

gone through a lot of the focus groups.

784

And we were just like, yeah, no,

no one will ever tell you they

785

were persuaded by a political ad,

786

Farrah Bostic: you know what,

787

Conor Kilgore: that

doesn't mean they aren't.

788

Farrah Bostic: what would be interesting?

789

So we, we did a project years ago

for Microsoft that was, um, trying

790

to understand the kind of path to

purchase for enterprise software.

791

So this is a very specific thing, right?

792

and so we went and interviewed,

what we called business decision

793

makers and it decision makers about

the process of deciding you need,

794

you know, a business intelligence

package or you need ERP software, you

795

need whatever it is that you need.

796

And then how do you get

through, what are the steps?

797

And where is information coming to you,

whether you are looking for it or not.

798

What are you seeking out?

799

Who are you talking to?

800

Who are you listening to?

801

All of that sort of thing.

802

And so we did all these interviews

and then we convened people in groups.

803

But we had taken what we'd heard across

all of these conversations and mapped

804

them out on the wall of like, you

know, step one, step two, step three.

805

And like, here's the kinds

of information you want.

806

Who asked for it.

807

What are you looking for?

808

And the it decision makers

we're like, yep, this is right.

809

Because for them, the impetus is

the business decision maker drops a

810

in-flight magazine with a post-it on

it and says, we should look into this.

811

Like, that's, that's what starts

their process because you know,

812

they're generally speaking, not

trying to add new things to the stack

813

that they don't absolutely need.

814

And so then we did the

business decision maker.

815

And they looked at our same

set of steps and said, this is

816

right, but you're missing a step.

817

And the missed step was this kind of

ambient awareness of what's available that

818

might help our business perform better.

819

And all of a sudden there was a place

on the wall for advertising because in

820

the rest of the process, well now I'm

like sifting and sorting and talking

821

to experts and developing my own

expertise and all that sort of thing.

822

Advertising is irrelevant here, but in

like step zero, ambient awareness, the

823

ads at Grand Central, the ads in the

inflight magazine, the ads in Forbes,

824

all of that stuff suddenly mattered.

825

Um, and I imagine today it would

be like the ads that play in the

826

commercial breaks of the Odd Lots

podcast or whatever, but like that

827

Conor Kilgore: the DC version of this, if.

828

The DC version of this is like, I live

in, you know, in Alexandria and commute

829

into downtown DC And so every day on, you

know, on the blue line I sit among, you

830

know, people commuting to the Pentagon.

831

And there are all kinds of ads

that are targeted exclusively to

832

Pentagon procurement officers like

833

Farrah Bostic: I

834

Conor Kilgore: arc.ai,

835

or, you know, you know, AI for National

security, or L three Harris, all

836

these, um, companies that are, you

know, thrive on, uh, on the military,

837

Farrah Bostic: Yeah.

838

But so, most of these groups are

done, , via Zoom, I imagine, these

839

Conor Kilgore: almost all of them.

840

it would not be possible literally to do

this the way we do it if, the pandemic had

841

not accelerated Zoom to the degree it did.

842

In the very beginning, they

did, in-person focus groups.

843

And it almost as someone who's new to

this felt like watching a, like black and

844

white film because the, like the camera in

the corner of the room was so grainy and

845

the audio was so terrible and it, the AI

transcription was just out there fighting

846

for its life because it is impossible

to discern what anyone was saying.

847

And if you want to quote anything,

you have to listen to it five times

848

before you can quote it accurately.

849

zoom has made that so much easier.

850

Uh, we've done a couple of

in-person segments, for PBS.

851

The PBS NewsHour, Judy Woodruff, since

she retired from the Anchor desk,

852

has just had this biweekly segment

about the political divide in America,

853

called America at a Crossroads.

854

And so we've done, we've been

part of three of those segments

855

and it is fun as a recruiter to.

856

Call people and you know, these Trump

to Biden voters in the Las Vegas area.

857

Like, do you want to come talk

about your political opinions

858

on a national broadcast?

859

Farrah Bostic: Yeah, that,

860

Conor Kilgore: you $250 to do it.

861

We paid a higher than usual incentive

to get people to open up with that.

862

and just because that was kind of a hard

recruit to do just in like the Vegas area.

863

I was like almost on my hands and knees

begging people, but turned out okay.

864

I thought.

865

I have to think.

866

It puts people at ease just to get to

Yap about their opinions from their home

867

office or their kitchen instead of having

to show up to some sterile conference

868

room and sit around eating m and ms.

869

Farrah Bostic: Yes.

870

Well this is, you know, I, I will say

for our, our methods, if it's just

871

a focus group, We do them online.

872

If it's more of a creative,

co-creative workshop environment,

873

then we get them in person.

874

But we don't do them in a sego facility.

875

Like we're, we're just, we're, we're

not gonna go into a gray conference room

876

Conor Kilgore: There's no two-way

877

glass, i I am always thinking of

the scene from Veep where they're

878

playing the Jonah Ryan ad and he

879

bursts in and says,

880

Clip: Surprise, surprise.

881

Look who's here.

882

Do you morons really not understand

that this is a two-way mirror.

883

Seriously, are you shocked

by that technology?

884

Farrah Bostic: the, the best part about

the two-way mirror I wanna quickly

885

say is when I was doing those all

the time, we would tell people about

886

the mirror, tell people about the.

887

The microphones in the room

and all of that sort of thing.

888

, And the way that I knew that they

were, they had gone back to just being

889

comfortable and having forgotten about all

of that is there would be someone who's

890

like looking in the mirror doing, you

know, like checking, fussing with their

891

hair or somebody picking their teeth.

892

Like it had gone back to just

being a mirror cause they can't

893

see the people on the other side.

894

they know intellectually, that

that's a window, but they're

895

not experiencing it as a window.

896

And so,

897

um, they're all of these things

about focus group facilities

898

that are really strange.

899

And so the places we go, , have cameras on

multiple microphones in the room, which is

900

much easier for the AI note taker, um, to

reckon with 'cause there's better sound.

901

the video's still not great 'cause

it's still one stationary camera.

902

I will give a shout out.

903

It's, , open house lofts, yq, , that,

that provides facilities for us

904

and they're excellent recruiters.

905

The spaces are great.

906

It's just, they're only

in like three cities.

907

They're in like New York, LA, Chicago,

so we can't use them for everything

908

we want to do, which is really too bad

'cause they're wonderful locations.

909

, You know, as I've been interviewing

people who work on particular issues,

910

, or who work in particular packs, they

are extremely quantitative dependent.

911

They're often survey first, which I

personally object to methodologically.

912

I don't think you should design a survey

instrument until you've heard people

913

actually talk about a topic, because you

don't know how they think about it, um,

914

until you've heard them talk about it.

915

And so if you start asking questions

that make sense to you, but don't

916

make sense to them, it's going to

skew your data in really weird ways.

917

and so that's my, that is my

strongly held methodological belief.

918

But what do you think is the value,

why are people doing so much quant?

919

Not so much qual.

920

Conor Kilgore: I think it is easier

to deal with numbers and to have like

921

a clear right and wrong answer as to,

you know, whatever our methodological

922

objections to quant might be.

923

You can purport to have a very clear

answer when you really can't with qual.

924

and it, it is a damn shame because I think

you, you learn quite a bit, especially

925

when you get to do this for a long time.

926

Like one of my favorite anecdotes

about just learning the way

927

people talk about things.

928

We did a series of focus groups,

not for the podcast, but about

929

how people think about elections.

930

And we were talking to conservatives

931

uh, and talked about like what they,

why they were basically okay with

932

how everything went down when so many

in their, in their tribe weren't.

933

And people just talked about, oh.

934

We just have a lot of checks and balances

on our election system which is like a

935

perfect, has kind of a schoolhouse rock

feel to it, but like checks and balances

936

is probably a term everybody heard in

their high school civics class, which

937

in some cases is like the last time you,

you got like a deep grounding in, uh,

938

in how a lot of these political issues

work beyond just like following the news.

939

I think that's like, it's becomes a

standin in a variety of context for

940

like, do you, do you not like how,

uh, Trump is abusing executive power?

941

People understand and appreciate

that like no one person is

942

meant to be super powerful.

943

Whether that's like you know,

keeping elections secure and

944

preventing fraud or preventing

voter suppression or whether it.

945

Keeping, you know, aspiring

autocrats from taking over.

946

it doesn't mean that people grok

what is going on in this country.

947

and the assault on our checks and balances

as much as I wish they sometimes did.

948

But I think that as Alyssa Slackin was

on the Focus Group podcast a couple

949

weeks ago and was like, I'm just counting

on people having some kind of spidey

950

sense for something being authoritarian.

951

And I think that, um, people appreciate

our checks and balances, and I think

952

that goes to what she was saying.

953

Farrah Bostic: I'm getting ready to have,

uh, Kathleen Weldon from the Roper Center,

954

on, because there's some great, old, old,

old polling that really indicates this

955

kind of spidey sense I think that you're

talking about, which is like, people do

956

have, you know, it is acculturated, it

is an American set of values for sure,

957

but they are nonetheless still there.

958

Even if like people can't tell

you which part of the constitution

959

something is in, they have some sort

of sense that like, one guy should

960

not be in charge of everything.

961

You know, they have some sense of what

fairness means you know, we were talking

962

about there was a lot of polling,

as the war was coming to a close

963

about what Americans wanted to spend.

964

You know, spend federal dollars on,

and they wanted to spend federal

965

dollars helping veterans like that.

966

That's, it felt fair.

967

, And it felt like a good investment.

968

And so, like people do have, you

know, a, a sensibility about things

969

and I think sometimes that that does,

that is a thing that comes through

970

qualitatively that's kind of, if you're

just kind of testing people's knowledge

971

of systems might not come through.

972

Conor Kilgore: I think one of the worst

things people can do in qualitative

973

research is want to treat it like a test.

974

and or sometimes.

975

You've mentioned the criticism that the

focus group pod gets earlier and like, why

976

don't you do fact-checking in the groups?

977

For one thing, it is very often that

people have heard the information

978

that you want them to hear before

and have dismissed it out of hand.

979

So

980

Farrah Bostic: Mm-hmm.

981

Conor Kilgore: if I just came to this

group of people who think the election

982

was stolen, for instance, with like, well,

all these experts say this was the most

983

secure election in American history, I am

telling the group more about myself and

984

like which political tribe they should

put me in than I'm telling them about,

985

actually correcting their information.

986

Many times people have kind of made

up their minds what they think, and

987

by the way, why should they trust me?

988

I'm just some random guy who is

here to talk to 'em about politics.

989

They don't know me.

990

I don't expect them to

think everything I believe.

991

, I

992

think, and you asked earlier about,

you asked earlier about the spirit

993

that like we, people should come

to, should listen to our work with,

994

and I think, I don't listen to it,

wanting people to change their minds.

995

Uh, most people are not gonna change their

minds and like hearing why they think what

996

they do is like a good in and of itself.

997

Farrah Bostic: Yes.

998

Conor Kilgore: And sometimes you

get to change a few people's minds.

999

Farrah Bostic: I was talking to an, an old

colleague of mine about kinda the way that

00:53:06,808 --> 00:53:10,948

political communication appears to work to

us as marketers, and she observed that she

00:53:10,948 --> 00:53:14,788

felt that like the Republican party has

a fair amount of contempt for its voters.

00:53:15,118 --> 00:53:20,908

And I said, yes, but they accept them.

00:53:21,568 --> 00:53:25,198

And I think that the problem that the

Democrats have is they also have a

00:53:25,198 --> 00:53:28,498

great deal of contempt for their voters,

and they wish they had different ones.

00:53:28,498 --> 00:53:30,388

So it is not an acceptance, right?

00:53:30,388 --> 00:53:33,849

Like you know, this kind of like,

can I pick different voters?

00:53:34,029 --> 00:53:36,519

Is almost the same thing as those

creative directors I mentioned before

00:53:36,519 --> 00:53:39,309

who are like, you don't like my ads,

therefore you're not the audience.

00:53:39,429 --> 00:53:42,159

And it's like, no, sorry, that's not it.

00:53:42,219 --> 00:53:45,999

And the, the thought I had was like, a

lot of marketing is you gotta meet them

00:53:45,999 --> 00:53:48,549

where they are, but not leave them there.

00:53:49,149 --> 00:53:49,419

Right?

00:53:49,419 --> 00:53:53,019

Like you, you meet them where they

are and then you try to like take

00:53:53,019 --> 00:53:56,709

them a couple feet down the road like

to to to what you want them to do.

00:53:56,759 --> 00:53:59,669

But I think in the, in the spirit of what

the Focus Group podcast is doing, I mean,

00:53:59,669 --> 00:54:01,229

I assume there's also stuff going on.

00:54:01,799 --> 00:54:04,349

For some of the issue advocacy

and, and other advocacy stuff

00:54:04,349 --> 00:54:05,939

that, um, Sarah's working on.

00:54:06,209 --> 00:54:09,929

But like, you know,

mostly it's where are you?

00:54:10,349 --> 00:54:14,099

And I find, I mean, my addiction

to the show is entirely like,

00:54:14,579 --> 00:54:15,959

I'm not doing this kind of work.

00:54:15,959 --> 00:54:18,839

I have done six political focus

groups in my entire life and

00:54:19,079 --> 00:54:21,749

it was incredibly illuminating.

00:54:22,349 --> 00:54:23,819

It was incredibly illuminating.

00:54:23,999 --> 00:54:27,449

I think about those people all the time

in the same way that I think about all of

00:54:27,449 --> 00:54:31,679

my groups all the time, because I'm always

talking to people who think weird stuff

00:54:31,679 --> 00:54:33,809

and do things I don't do and whatever.

00:54:33,809 --> 00:54:34,559

But that's.

00:54:34,919 --> 00:54:38,639

Humanity and like we're

all in this together.

00:54:38,639 --> 00:54:40,439

I might as well know

where you're coming from.

00:54:40,949 --> 00:54:46,859

Um, and I think this is why a, i, I

wish that I just had, uh, you know, a

00:54:46,859 --> 00:54:49,979

listen only access to the Dropbox folder

with all of the recordings in them.

00:54:49,979 --> 00:54:54,959

the, uh, Other thing is, as I understood

it from the behind the scenes episodes,

00:54:54,959 --> 00:54:58,769

you guys did like the, the warmup

question is often how do you think

00:54:58,769 --> 00:54:59,909

things are going in the country?

00:55:00,319 --> 00:55:04,549

And when I heard you guys talking about

that, I kind of like, like had to pause

00:55:04,549 --> 00:55:07,819

and, and just bask in that for a moment

because I just thought to myself,

00:55:07,849 --> 00:55:12,019

if it were up to me, that's the only

scripted question I would come in with.

00:55:12,319 --> 00:55:15,139

And everything else would just be,

tell me more about that follow up

00:55:15,139 --> 00:55:17,629

question on this or that, you know,

follow the threads where they take me.

00:55:18,079 --> 00:55:23,119

But this is, is this just sort of

like the standard political opener?

00:55:23,359 --> 00:55:26,239

Is this, is there a particular

reason you start with this question?

00:55:26,239 --> 00:55:27,349

Conor Kilgore: It's a standard opener.

00:55:27,379 --> 00:55:31,159

Uh, it just level sets a lot about

where people are in their lives,

00:55:31,159 --> 00:55:32,599

how that connects to politics.

00:55:32,989 --> 00:55:35,989

As I've gotten to moderate

more groups, I think I have

00:55:35,989 --> 00:55:37,369

become less and less scripted.

00:55:37,519 --> 00:55:40,669

Uh, I have like a general, I

wanna spend 20 minutes on this

00:55:40,669 --> 00:55:42,229

topic, 15 minutes on this.

00:55:42,769 --> 00:55:45,979

Sometimes, like I, there's stuff we

have to hit 'cause of the podcast,

00:55:45,979 --> 00:55:50,959

but one of my favorite things to do

is to just completely improv a thing

00:55:50,959 --> 00:55:52,459

that is not in the guide at all.

00:55:52,879 --> 00:55:59,089

we did a group of like Maha oriented,

like Pro RFK Trump voters last night,

00:55:59,089 --> 00:56:01,579

and it was completely not in my guide.

00:56:01,579 --> 00:56:05,359

And I spent like the last 15 minutes

of the group asking them about the

00:56:05,359 --> 00:56:07,939

Republican party's relationship

with Israel, for instance.

00:56:08,239 --> 00:56:08,319

Farrah Bostic: Hmm.

00:56:08,719 --> 00:56:11,269

Conor Kilgore: Uh, and the room

was a little bit more divided

00:56:11,269 --> 00:56:12,409

on it than you might expect.

00:56:12,649 --> 00:56:12,829

Uh,

00:56:12,889 --> 00:56:17,149

so look for that in, uh, upcoming

episodes wherever you get your podcasts.

00:56:17,199 --> 00:56:19,059

Farrah Bostic: Here, here's

a first for, for cross abs.

00:56:19,059 --> 00:56:22,239

We're gonna, we're gonna, we're gonna

play some audio from the focus groups.

00:56:22,539 --> 00:56:26,319

Um, but also I, I, I do have to laugh

that we're however long into this

00:56:26,319 --> 00:56:29,529

conversation we are, and this will be

the first time that we play the clips.

00:56:29,529 --> 00:56:33,999

When I am the, when I'm like listening to

it, week to week, going get to the cliffs.

00:56:34,629 --> 00:56:38,529

So, um, so I'm guilty of, of this,

but we're having a good conversation.

00:56:38,529 --> 00:56:40,479

Which one would you

like to, to start with?

00:56:40,779 --> 00:56:41,499

We have, we have two.

00:56:42,924 --> 00:56:43,794

Conor Kilgore: one about the economy.

00:56:44,529 --> 00:56:44,799

Farrah Bostic: Okay.

00:56:44,829 --> 00:56:45,489

Let's, let's play

00:56:45,489 --> 00:56:46,089

that here.

00:56:46,770 --> 00:56:48,420

Clip: Seeing that, uh, inflation

00:56:48,420 --> 00:56:51,780

is decreasing, but I, I, I, I

won't speak for anybody else, but

00:56:51,780 --> 00:56:54,960

it may be decreasing, but I don't

see my dollar going any farther.

00:56:55,320 --> 00:56:59,340

I would like to know when the last

time anybody in Congress or anybody

00:56:59,340 --> 00:57:04,110

up in the realms, their bottled loaf

of bread, I mean, they all talk about

00:57:04,200 --> 00:57:08,340

economy's getting better, but even just

loaf for bread, it's, it's really not

00:57:08,340 --> 00:57:09,330

affordable anymore.

00:57:10,194 --> 00:57:13,434

Conor Kilgore: Okay, so I picked

these two particular voices.

00:57:13,434 --> 00:57:18,064

The first gentleman, voted for

00:57:18,724 --> 00:57:21,394

00:57:21,394 --> 00:57:27,154

And the second woman voted for

Trump at least two, maybe three

00:57:27,154 --> 00:57:29,404

times, but disapproves of him now.

00:57:29,434 --> 00:57:31,594

And she was in one of our

focus groups last night.

00:57:31,594 --> 00:57:34,924

I found these two people particularly

interesting because I think they

00:57:34,924 --> 00:57:40,144

have an acute sense that they are

maybe being told what to think

00:57:40,144 --> 00:57:43,864

about the state of the economy that

is not consonant with their lives.

00:57:44,494 --> 00:57:48,664

one thing I, I have certainly noticed

is like since the 24 election, as we've

00:57:48,664 --> 00:57:53,734

talked to like the Biden to Trump sort of

very skeptical anti-institutional crowd,

00:57:53,734 --> 00:57:59,287

more is people have a very acute sense of

when they are being marketed to they are.

00:58:00,162 --> 00:58:06,402

Aware of like to on some level of what the

political messaging is being done to them.

00:58:06,612 --> 00:58:09,702

Do you remember the song Richmond, north

of Richmond that came out a couple years

00:58:09,702 --> 00:58:09,972

ago?

00:58:10,912 --> 00:58:14,272

the line in that song that I

think about all the time is like

00:58:14,302 --> 00:58:16,942

they, they want to know what you

think, want to know what you do.

00:58:16,942 --> 00:58:19,642

And they don't think, you

know, but I know that you do.

00:58:22,108 --> 00:58:26,368

/

And that is a little bit of the vibe I got from these two clips.

00:58:27,358 --> 00:58:27,748

Farrah Bostic: Yeah.

00:58:27,868 --> 00:58:30,568

I mean, I think it's also a,

a good description of a lot

00:58:30,568 --> 00:58:32,818

of, a lot of market research.

00:58:33,478 --> 00:58:34,918

I wanna, I wanna know what you think.

00:58:34,918 --> 00:58:37,408

I know what you do, and still think you're

wrong about that and do whatever I want.

00:58:37,798 --> 00:58:41,058

Uh, I mean, the, the other thing

that I thought was interesting in

00:58:41,058 --> 00:58:42,498

there was referring to it as Rome.

00:58:42,498 --> 00:58:42,718

Conor Kilgore: Yes.

00:58:42,960 --> 00:58:45,210

I think this woman might

have made a comment about.

00:58:45,810 --> 00:58:47,880

Fiddling while Rome burns

or something like that.

00:58:48,000 --> 00:58:48,960

But I did.

00:58:49,020 --> 00:58:49,920

I did clock that.

00:58:50,185 --> 00:58:52,825

Farrah Bostic: This is also one of these

places where hearing people's actual

00:58:52,825 --> 00:58:58,235

experiences really helps because we

deal with averages kind of too much.

00:58:58,235 --> 00:59:00,425

But I've sort of interacted with

people through research and other

00:59:00,425 --> 00:59:04,145

things who live like in Maine and in

Vermont and in western Massachusetts

00:59:04,145 --> 00:59:05,975

who are kind of in food deserts.

00:59:06,005 --> 00:59:07,325

And so things are.

00:59:07,850 --> 00:59:10,460

You know, they, they don't have

a big supermarket near them.

00:59:10,460 --> 00:59:11,630

It's little shops.

00:59:11,630 --> 00:59:15,020

And the little shops don't get

most favored nation prices on food

00:59:15,020 --> 00:59:16,610

distribute for food distributors.

00:59:16,820 --> 00:59:19,760

So they are paying a lot

of money for groceries.

00:59:19,760 --> 00:59:21,880

I, have similar experiences

living where I do.

00:59:21,950 --> 00:59:24,710

But the, the other thing that's

interesting about that is

00:59:24,890 --> 00:59:27,140

that's nearly two years apart.

00:59:27,230 --> 00:59:32,450

The, those two comments and like the

sense that, you know, some people are

00:59:32,450 --> 00:59:36,410

trying to sell that like, well, the

economy got better or it was better

00:59:36,410 --> 00:59:38,090

then and maybe it started to fall off.

00:59:38,090 --> 00:59:43,123

Now, and I know that people really

00:59:43,123 --> 00:59:47,083

is not a lot of people's experience.

00:59:47,083 --> 00:59:49,693

Conor Kilgore: The stock market was

pretty good in a lot of ways, right?

00:59:49,723 --> 00:59:50,473

Like my,

00:59:50,833 --> 00:59:51,193

Farrah Bostic: Yes.

00:59:51,703 --> 00:59:54,403

Conor Kilgore: my 4 0 1 Ks had a

couple of, uh, a couple of good

00:59:54,403 --> 00:59:55,693

years as many people's have.

00:59:55,783 --> 00:59:57,930

But, know, the economy

is not just one thing.

00:59:58,230 --> 01:00:03,510

Uh, and if you maybe are not saving

for retirement all that much and

01:00:03,510 --> 01:00:04,935

you have more kind of first order.

01:00:06,060 --> 01:00:09,840

Food, shelter, survival, Maslow's

hierarchy of needs concerns,

01:00:10,260 --> 01:00:11,250

it gets a little bit harder.

01:00:11,850 --> 01:00:16,220

And the absolute worst thing you can

do is tell people that actually you're

01:00:16,220 --> 01:00:17,600

supposed to feel so much better right now.

01:00:19,460 --> 01:00:19,880

Farrah Bostic: Yes.

01:00:20,210 --> 01:00:20,600

Yes.

01:00:20,600 --> 01:00:21,890

That, that is not helpful at all.

01:00:22,220 --> 01:00:23,960

So you had a, you had a second clip.

01:00:24,010 --> 01:00:26,590

I'm sorry, I'm gonna sound like

an, an, a late night host here.

01:00:26,590 --> 01:00:27,610

Do you wanna set this clip up?

01:00:27,940 --> 01:00:28,210

Um,

01:00:28,300 --> 01:00:28,870

Conor Kilgore: Sure.

01:00:29,020 --> 01:00:33,880

So this other clip is,

01:00:33,940 --> 01:00:38,770

So it is in the midst of Doge, , all

of the chaos that went on there.

01:00:38,830 --> 01:00:41,050

Uh, but this was a Biden to Trump voter.

01:00:41,100 --> 01:00:41,550

Farrah Bostic: All right, let,

01:00:41,610 --> 01:00:42,780

Conor Kilgore: let's listen as they say.

01:00:43,738 --> 01:00:44,488

Clip: I feel like

01:00:44,488 --> 01:00:49,288

things are going really, really good and

really, really bad at the exact same time.

01:00:50,098 --> 01:00:55,618

Like it's not, um, things that I think

are going really, really bad, like firing

01:00:55,648 --> 01:00:57,538

the people who handle nuclear weapons.

01:00:59,038 --> 01:01:04,018

And then realizing who you fired and

then having to be like about switch.

01:01:04,018 --> 01:01:05,818

Like, Hey, hey, hey, don't

go, don't know we need you.

01:01:06,178 --> 01:01:08,758

Well, we can't have a nuclear

disaster come back quick.

01:01:08,968 --> 01:01:10,168

Like, that's crazy.

01:01:10,438 --> 01:01:12,238

Things that I think are going good.

01:01:12,268 --> 01:01:19,648

Um, I'm glad that something's being done

about, um, children being able to get like

01:01:20,158 --> 01:01:26,548

hormone therapy treatments and um, hormone

therapy treatments and, uh, sex can

01:01:26,638 --> 01:01:30,208

treatments like before they're adolescent,

before they even get a chance to mature.

01:01:30,889 --> 01:01:34,249

Conor Kilgore: I picked this because it

is representative of a strain of thinking.

01:01:34,249 --> 01:01:38,869

You hear from the Biden to Trump

folks who as the years gone on, and

01:01:38,869 --> 01:01:43,789

I think Trump's approval numbers

reflect this, certainly soured on his

01:01:43,789 --> 01:01:45,349

administration to one degree or another.

01:01:45,799 --> 01:01:49,159

Uh, there's still plenty of people who

are saying like, I think the tariffs are

01:01:49,159 --> 01:01:53,599

gonna be awesome, and I'm optimistic about

where things are headed in the next year.

01:01:53,599 --> 01:01:55,879

But a lot of people don't think

things are going great right now.

01:01:56,389 --> 01:02:00,719

Uh, even when people don't like a lot